This page is dedicated to You Be The Forecaster,
the analysis puzzle presented in every issue of
Weatherwise magazine.
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I enjoy Being the Forecaster. How can I do better?
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There's no better way of learning how to forecast than by
by getting your hands dirty. Unfortunately some NWS and many media
forecasters take the easy way out by relying on computer models
(such as those at
UCAR's site).
The problem is that models only give a general picture of weather
conditions and are not always dependable.
Although models are much better than they were thirty years ago,
our limited ability to sample the atmosphere brings enough uncertainty
into forecasting to make it very much an art form.
Consider an
accomplished gourmet chef.
She doesn't study cookbooks -- she studies ingredients. Her vast understanding
of the art of cooking allows her to scrutinize and adapt a recipe on
sight, without even turning on the stove. Mastering any art requires
these keen abilities: feeling, intuition, and imagination, which can only come
from practice. You'll need to feel whether a jet streak might be over
a certain data-void region. Your imagination might help you visualize how
the atmosphere could be destabilizing in a certain area due to differential
advection.
So what's the best way to get started?
Don't simply wait for each Weatherwise issue for a challenge.
Practice daily! Every day, print out a weather map that does NOT
contain isobars or fronts.
Then add those in by hand.
Two good resources for getting printable maps with plots-only are
UCAR's Weather Page
and the software program
Digital Atmosphere.
For at least 12 hours before you do the map, go on a meteorological "fast"
by avoiding all potential solutions, such as the Weather Channel and
analyzed web maps. This will keep you from doubting your own work and
will give you confidence.
You can always look at these sources, including models, after you're done.
But keep in mind these sources usually don't do a good job with small-scale
features such as drylines and outflow boundaries.
Once you've finished your weather map, I recommend reading NWS
Forecast Discussion messages, available at the
IWIN server
(simply pick a state then choose Forecast Discussion). Compare
the forecaster's thoughts to what you've seen on your map.
If the discussions look a bit intimidating, check out my article
How to Read a Forecast Discussion.
You'll notice that some forecasters only talk about what the models
say, while others give a detailed scoop about what the atmosphere
is doing. The ones with the detailed scoop will be the most
fascinating -- and you can bet those forecasters are the ones
who took the time to analyze and sketch out maps on paper.
When you put pencil to paper and analyze weather maps on a daily basis,
I guarantee by the third week you will look back and be astounded by how much
you've learned. No, you still won't feel like an expert, but you'll
notice that your confusion gives way to scientific interest. You'll
begin wondering why that front was so hard to find in the mountains,
or why that warm front fizzled like it did.
It's these experiences that refine your forecasting skill
and give you healthy questions to pursue.
This is when you must sharpen your knowledge of meteorological science.
Dig into all the weather references you can find (many are below),
get on weather E-mail lists, and get answers to your questions.
To accurately predict weather you have to understand the science
and the art of forecasting.
Mastering an art requires you to visualize a form, but
mastering a science requires understanding of the underlying form.
Scientific knowledge is what allows us to predict weather based
on a set of sound principles and techniques, and
scientific inquiry is what leads to scientific knowledge.
Read, and read more! There's no shortcut.
Does all this tough work really help?
In one of my bookshelves I have a binder nearly
3 inches thick comprised of weather maps I analyzed daily (sometimes
5 times a day) between 1987 and 1989. My grasp of meteorology grew
by quantum leaps during this time frame, and I had barely started.
Even nowadays when I do consulting work, digging out my colored pencils
and analyzing maps helps me bond with the day's weather and gives me
a strong sense of satisfaction and confidence. Interestingly the
days that I catch myself ignoring analysis maps and looking at models
are the days that give me the most trouble.
For working knowledge on how to forecast, I recommend my 160-page
Weather Forecasting Handbook
which gives great details on how to analyze and recognize meteorological
processes in the atmosphere. This explains the finer points of locating
fronts, and shows you how they tie in with jet streams, upper level
disturbances, and air masses. You don't have to buy my book,
of course... for an alternate selection try Dusan Djuric's
Weather Analysis
(a bit pricy but indispensable!)
Advanced amateurs with enthusiasm and a willingness to travel to Oklahoma
may want to consider attending one of the 3-hour workshops at my
Weather Forecasting School.
This isn't for everyone, but it's a great way to round out your experience.
Finally, well, there's
The Tao of Forecasting.
Check it out!
| My 1987-89 analysis binder -- the fountain of much of my forecasting knowledge |
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Copyright ©2001,2003 Tim Vasquez
tim@weathergraphics.com
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