Have a look at this:
----- Original Message -----
From: John O'Reilly
To: Al Keating
Sent: Monday, August 16, 2004 10:38 PM
Subject: Seen this?
Hurricane Charley caused a great deal of consternation for some and relief for others when it changed course inland early Friday morning. I was spared a direct hit East of Tampa while others fared much worse. Seeing the videos of screaming winds, commercial buildings turned to rubble and steel construction architecture roofs ripped off is a sobering experience and the puny preparations I had made seem almost laughable in retrospect.
The fateful turn came as a surprise to expert NOAA meteorologists and their myriad of standard pressure-based computer models. Alone against the conventional view was a product called VIPIR. It is a model based only upon radar signatures and upper winds data. It called for the inland turn as early as Wednesday evening but the local NBC affiliate that had paid a small fortune for it didn't believe the results because they conflicted with Miami. Only when the storm actually began its move did the local broadcaster weather man remark about the conflict. His tone and emphasis told me that there had been a great deal on behind the scenes discussion about the conflict. It seems that Miami did not want to change the original track, preferring to keep evacuation orders in place. In any event the decision was retained until it had to be changed.