962 FXUS61 KBUF 300700 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 258 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... THE PCPN THAT FORMED SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE...HAS CLEARED MOST OF THE FINGER LAKES AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING OVER OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES...BUT MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST ARE FORMING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN LAKE HURON TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STAY WEST OF OUR AREA TODAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA MOVES UP THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. THUS...WHILE THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT OUR AREA TODAY...IT WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN HELPING TO FOCUS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHWEST NEW YORK STATE LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE FA SHOULD STAY DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SINCE THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA IS JUST BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OHIO. THE GFS TRACKS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS STEADIER RAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER TOWARD EVENING...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE NORTHING MORE THAN A COUPLE OF SHOWERS. THE REAL ACTION GETS UNDER WAY TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA APPROACH NEW YORK STATE. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...COMBINED WITH THE ADDED LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE FROM HPC SHOWS A GENERAL 2.0 TO 3.0 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SINCE THIS RAIN IS FORECAST TO FALL OVER AN 18 HOUR PERIOD...MOST OF THE MAJOR STREAMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE RAINFALL. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE IN URBAN AREAS AND ALONG SMALL STREAMS IF THE PCPN IS CONCENTRATED OVER A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME. BECAUSE THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA...WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FA FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SINCE THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY...MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY 00Z THURSDAY. WILL STILL LEAVE IN A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THURSDAY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON THURSDAY BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL CANADIAN LOWS. BY THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL BC LOW WILL BE OVER QUEBEC...NO REAL IMPACT ON WESTERN NY...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE US WITH A FINE WEEKEND LASTING INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME IFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE REMAINS OF KATRINA WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN RAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY IN MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... AS KATRINA MOVES NORTHWARD WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST AHEAD THE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR LAKE ONTARIO WATERS FROM NIAGARA RIVER TO SODUS BAY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE REST OF THE NEW YORK SHORES OF THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. && .BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NYZ01>008-010>014-019>020-085 .MARINE...NONE $$ .SHORT TERM...TJP .LONG TERM...ZAFF .AVIATION...APB 747 FXUS63 KARX 300702 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 200 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON THE PCPN CHANCES WITH A SFC FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY...CIRRUS SHIELD FROM KATRINA HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF ILLINOIS...AND INTO FAR SOUTHEAST IA...BUT NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE NOW TROPICAL STORM SHOULD KEEP THESE HIGH CLOUDS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH...A RATHER PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL/SFC LOW NEAR JAMES BAY CONTINUES TO BRING CLOUDS TO THE NORTHEAST MN AND FAR NORTHERN WI. SITTING INBETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WAS THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE HIGH PRESSURE WAS KEEPING THE SKIES CLEAR...AND ALLOWING FOR AREAS OF FOG...MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...KEEPING THE BRUNT OF ITS IMPACT WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE LOCAL AREA WILL STILL FEEL SOME EFFECT FROM THE SYSTEM. KATRINA WILL KEEP THE GULF CLOSED OFF FOR THE REGION...WITH THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ALL FUNNELING INTO THE DEPARTING TROPICAL SYSTEM. SO...AN ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE ONLY THE SATURATION IT BRINGS WITH IT TO WORK WITH. THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE DOWN DUE TO THE LACK OF A SOUTHERLY FETCH...WITH SBCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG EXPECTED. AS FOR THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM...A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPIN ACROSS ND ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY ON THU. THE ACCOMPANYING SFC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY NOON...WITH SOME 850:700 MB QG CONVERGENCE AND 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG IT. RH FIELDS POINT TO A THIN RIBBON OF SATURATION THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SO...DESPITE THE LACK OF BETTER INSTABILITY AND A TAP INTO BETTER MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL PCPN CHANCES FOR WED. BY THU...THE REGION WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SFC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...LEADING TO SUNNY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS MORNING...ANY MORE FOG CHANCES? FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAIN DRAWBACK TO THE FOG POTENTIAL WOULD BE ANY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY...THE LOW LEVEL/SFC WINDS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FOG. RH FIELDS WOULD KEEP THE SATURATION WEST OF THE REGION FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE //MET/MAV/FWC// ALSO KEEPS THE LOCAL AREA CLEAR...AND HINTS AT FOG. BELIEVE THE FOG POTENTIAL IS THERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEY. UNSURE AT THE MOMENT IF IT WOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THAT. FOR THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WED NIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS EAST...BUT CURRENTLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MIGHT KEEP WINDS UP TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. OVERALL...WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE ONLY "DECENT" CHANCE FOR SOME PCPN FOR ABOUT THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE. BASICALLY...RATHER NICE FALL WEATHER...FOR THE END OF THE SUMMER. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE A LOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE AT THE SFC AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE SAME TIME...MOVING EAST ON MONDAY. SUNNY AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL RESULT...WITH SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG LIKELY FOR SEVERAL MORNINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ RIECK 970 FXUS62 KJAX 300702 AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 300 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWS THE BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE REMAINING TO OUR WEST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDS INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND A HIGH OVER EXTREME SE FL AND BAHAMAS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN THIS AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE KATRINA CONTINUES THE TREK TOWARD THE TN/OH VALLEYS. A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PULL A TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE SWATH OF TRPCL MSTR WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE SEWD WED AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL SEEP INTO NRN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF FCST AREA LIMITING CONVECTION ON THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE IN LOWER/MID 90S AND QUITE HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES (HI) IN THE LOWER 100'S AGAIN TODAY AND WED. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO LOWER 70S WITHIN THE DRIER AIR AND HI WILL FALL TO BELOW 100 ON THURS EXCEPT ACROSS SRN ZONES. .LONG TERM...CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE TROUGH STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRES BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT PAST COUPLE DAYS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A LOCAL NOREASTER AND CONTINUED MILDER TEMPS. && .MARINE...OFFSHORE BUOYS STILL SHOW SOUTH WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH 4-5 FOOT SEAS. WINDS WILL BECOME SW TODAY AND REMAIN BREEZY. WILL CONTINUE SCEC FOR ALL WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NW ON THURSDAY AND THEN NE FRI WITH AN INCREASE ON SAT. RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY WILL BE MODERATE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 76 92 72 / 60 40 60 20 SSI 90 79 90 78 / 60 40 60 30 JAX 93 77 91 75 / 60 40 60 30 SGJ 91 78 89 77 / 60 50 60 30 GNV 91 76 89 75 / 60 50 60 30 OCF 90 76 89 75 / 60 50 60 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...TRABERT MARINE/FIRE WX...ZIBURA 705 FXUS62 KGSP 300713 AFDGSP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 313 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM KATRINA SHIFTING A BIT MORE EASTWARD IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FOR THE REMNANT LOW AND MUCH MORE EASTWARD THAN INDICATED BY EITHER OF OUR SHORT RANGE MODELS. CONVECTION IS REALLY FILLING IN NOW IN BETTER SHEAR AND FORCING AXIS ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PROPER. AS THIS DEEPER MOISTURE GETS THROWN UP AGAINST OUR HIGHER TERRAIN ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA. IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE WE SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE EASTERN ZONES. WILL HIGHLIGHT CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY AND LIKELY TO CHANCE EAST...AND HOLD ON TO THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT. WE WILL CHANGE THE MONIKER TO FLOOD WATCH SINCE MOST AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN RECEIVING RAINFALL OVERNIGHT ARE THE SAME LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING...AND THE RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. WITH THE FORWARD SPEED OF KATRINA INCREASING...CHANGES IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE FASTER AND MORE VARIABLE THAN PREVIOUSLY BELIEVED. THE EASTWARD SHIFT WILL MAKE IT LIKELY THAT SOME HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME RATHER HIGH WIND GUSTS. UPSTREAM...THE 88-D AT KBMX AND KHTX STILL SHOW 40 TO 50 KTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE; PROFILE OVER OUR REGION MUCH LIGHTER AT PRESENT BUT WE DO ANTICIPATE AN INCRASE IN THE WIND. AN UNUSUAL WIND PHENOMENON OVER NORTH ALABAMA HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS TREES DOWN THERE EVEN WITH MUCH LIGHTER OBSERVED WINDS FROM METAR SITES THAT HAVE MANAGED TO REMAIN ONLINE. THERE COULD BE POCKETS WHERE THE HIGHER RADAR-INDICATED WINDS HAVE BEEN BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE OR A GRAVITY WAVE IS POSSIBLE. IF WIND SPEEDS NEED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOR THE WESTERN CWFA THIS MORNING...THERE IS STILL TIME TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS UPSTREAM AS WIND PROFILES STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PREDAWN AND AS THOSE STRENGTHENING PROFILES IMPACT NORTH GEORGIA. FOR NOW...WE WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA...MENTIONING SOME WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR SO AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CWFA HAS BEEN EARMARKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...SLIGHT RISK WEST FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ALL OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE FAR SOUTHERN UPSTATE...MODERATE RISK INDICATED NOW FOR THE CENTRAL UPSTATE THROUGH THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THIS DUE STRONGER 0-1 KM FLOW AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ANY SURFACE HEATING TO ENHANCE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IN THE LEE TROF EAST OF APPALACHIANS. INTERESTING THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS BRING SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR INTO THE WESTERN CWFA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS EASTERN SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE MOIST. WE ALSO LOSE A LOT OF OUR DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON..ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WIND SPEEDS OVERALL ARE PROGD TO STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE WITH SURAFCE CIRCULATION AROUND KATRINA MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH AND UPPER TROF APPROACHING WITH POTENTIAL DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION LATE. WITH MODERATE RISK IN PLACE FOR THE AFTERNOON...WE WILL INCLUDE THE SEVERE WORDING IN THE ZONE TEXT. IT MIGHT BE PRUDENT HERE TO MENTION THAT A TORNADO WATCH DOES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME WESTERN CWFA UNTIL 6 AM. AS SIGNIFICANT ECHOES UPSTREAM APPROACH THE REGION...WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL WATCHES POSTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. PLAN TO TONE DOWN POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE CWFA BUT MAINTAIN DECENT CHANCES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED AND CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING WITH APPROACH OF NOT ONLY THE UPPER LOW REPRESENTING THE MID LEVEL PART OF KATRINA BUT ALSO THE OVERALL APPROACH OF THE TROF IN WHICH THE SYSTEM IS ENVELOPED. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGD TO SWING AROUND TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS EVENING AND TO WESTERLY...DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION...BY MORNING. MODELS BRING A DRY SLOT INTO THE AREA ALSO WITH THE FEATURE...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEARS TO SUPPORT THAT IDEA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS SUGGEST A RAPID DRYING OUT AND A BOUNDARY CROSSING THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. WE WILL KEEP CHANCES GOING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY PROGD...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE NOT WORKED ON TEMPERATURES YET BUT EXPECT BELOW NORMAL WEST TODAY...WARMER EAST WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... ADJUSTED WIND SPEEDS AND POPS SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE. && .AVIATION... MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH KCLT DEVELOPING A LOW CLOUD CEILING BEFORE SUNRISE. ONCE IN THE MVFR...EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS A PREVAILING CONDITION THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MODELS SHOW A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. HOWEVER... EXPECT PRECIP TO BE OFF AN ON AND SHOWERY...WITH STRETCHES OF GOOD VISIBILITY IN TROPICAL AIR. THE TEMPO GROUP IS TAILOR MADE FOR THIS SCENARIO SO I WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT...AND MOVE THE PRECIP FORECAST TO TEMPO CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES. EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP TO MOVE NORTH AND FADE WITH SUNSET...SO HAVE OPTED FOR A VCSH AFTER 00Z WITH A LOW CLOUD CEILING HANGING ON. LOOKING AHEAD... GUIDANCE SHOWS CEILINGS DROPPING INTO IFR RANGE IN SOME CASES TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL BE CONSIDERED IN THE NEXT ISSUANCE. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GAZ010-017-018-026 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY. NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ033-034-048>055-058-059-062>067 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-034-048>055-058-059-062>067 FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY. SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SCZ001>005 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ001 >007-010- 011 FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...SAB LONG TERM...SAB AVIATION...PM 842 FXUS63 KIWX 300713 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 213 AM EST TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM... 00Z GUIDANCE STRUGGLING W/HANDLING OF REMNANT KATRINA CIRCULATION. AS OF 06Z...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MID LVL FTR OVR SW TN AND WELL AHD OF 06Z PROGS W/A CONTD TYPICAL UNDERESTIMATE OF SFC LOW INTENSITY. COMPARED TO LAST EVENING...TS CYCLONE POSITION NE OF PROGGED POSITION AND LATEST HPC GUIDANCE BUT ALSO NOTED W/LATEST TREND IN 00Z GFS WHICH BY ALL ACCOUNTS SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON SYS AS IT ACCELERATES NEWD. STRUGGLE THIS MORNING AGAIN LIES W/WWD EXTENT OF PRECIP SHIELD AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE TN VALLEY TODAY BUT LOOKS TO BE A BIT EWD OF PREV EXPECTATIONS YET STILL A HEAVY RAIN THREAT SE CORNER LT THIS AFTN AND OVERNIGHT INADV OF MID LVL CNTR AND DEEPENING MSTR FLUX. WILL LEAVE THINGS PRETTY MUCH AS IS BUT WRN POP EXTENT MAY BE OVERDONE SOMEWHAT AT THIS POINT. WILDCARD OUTSIDE OF THAT LIES W/SFC TROF EXTNDG SWWD OUT OF UPR TROF OVR ERN ONT. 00Z NAM SUGGESTION OF CONV ALG THIS BNDRY LT AFTN/EVENING IN CONCERT W/STRENGTHENING LL MSTR FLUX HAS MERIT W/XPCD DESTABILIZATION UNDERNEATH INCIPIENT MID LVL DRY SLOT XPCD. ALTHOUGH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITHIN LEFT FLANK OF DECAYING TROPICAL SYS STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE FOR A VRY TIGHT QPF GRADIENT OVERNIGHT...NOTHING NORTHWEST TO 2 INCHES FAR SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE GOING TEMP FCST LOOKS GREAT W/AFTN RAIN ARRIVAL FAR S/SE AND DEEPENING CLOUD SHIELD S-N THROUGH THE DAY. && .LONG TERM... THE MAIN THING TO CONTEMPLATE FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME IS WHAT THE EFFECTS ARE GOING TO BE FROM KATRINA ON WEDNESDAY. WATCHING CURRENT SATELLITE PICTURES, KATRINA IS MOVING QUITE QUICKLY NORTH AND EASTWARD. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF KATRINA...UP NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH OHIO AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THEY MAY NOT BE HANDLING THE SPEED CORRECTLY OF THE MOVEMENT OF KATRINA. GFS80 MOVES KATRINA THE FASTEST ALONG THIS TRACK. WITH NUMERICAL POP VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALSO VERY LOW, HAVE PULLED ALL RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF KATRINA, OVER THE NEXT SHIFT OR TWO, POP VALUES AND AREAL COVERAGE COULD ALSO BE DECREASED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ALSO BE LESS ON WEDNESDAY THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT IF KATRINA WAS TO QUICKLY MOVE BY OUR CWA. WE COULD HAVE HAD SOME RAIN ON THURSDAY; BUT THE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS OUR CWA WILL WEAKEN AND ALMOST BE NON-EXISTENT THROUGH OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. 500MB FLOW IS FAIRLY ZONAL ON THURSDAY WITH BASICALLY NO INDICATION OF A TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE OVER OUR CWA FOR THE REST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD TO MONDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION... CONTD OVERALL TONE FM PREV FCST. STILL A STRUGGLE W/NWD EXTENT OF PRECIP SHIELD DUE TO KATRINA TONIGHT BUT EARLY INDICATION IS BRUNT TO PASS ACRS SE CORNER OF CWA W/VFR XPCD AT SBN AND TEMPO MVFR IN SHRA/BR AT FWA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE WILDCARD LIES W/STALLED SFC TROF EXTNDG SWWD FM UPR TROF OVR ERN ONT AND OF WHICH FIRED CONVN THIS EVENING. SOME SUGGESTION PER 00Z NAM THAT THIS MAY AGAIN FIRE LT THIS AFTN AND EVENING AS STG MSTR FLUX DVLPS INADV OF KATRINA AND SOME DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WITHIN MID LVL DRY WEDGE THIS AFTN. ATTM FAVORED AREA APPEARS TO LIE BTWN TAF SITES BUT ALSO LOW PROB EVENT ANYWAY AND LEFT OUT. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN LONG TERM...LOTHAMER 753 FXUS61 KRNK 300714 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 255 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... FINALLY STARTING TO SEE ENHANCED SHRA ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC. STILL LOOKS LIKE BULK OF RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF OUR FA...WITH BANDING SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS OUR FA...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BIG CONCERN TODAY WILL BE DESTABILIZATION AND TORNADO THREAT...GIVEN HELICITIES PROGGED IN THE 150-300 RANGE PER GFS. SPC ALREADY HAS MOST OF THE FORECAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN A MODERATE RISK. CAPES ARE NOT ALL TOO HIGH...AND THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP ATMOSPHERE FROM GETTING TOO UNSTABLE. STILL WIND ENERGY AND SHEAR COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SVR. QPF NOT TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP. THINKING PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP FASTER THAN PROGGED...GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING. DRY SLOT LOOKS TO WORK INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA TOWARD EARLY EVENING...WITH PRECIP SHIELD SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST PER GFS SOLUTION. THREAT OF SVR SHOULD BE OVER AFTER 00Z. GENERAL GRADIENT WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NC...DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES TODAY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DUE TO A LITTLE SLOWER TIMING ON THE RAIN BANDS MOVING IN AND ANTICIPATING A LITTLE SUN. WILL HAVE MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH TROPICAL AIR OVER THE REGION. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... REMNANTS OF KATRINA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY WED MORNING...OR CLOSE TO THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS. STILL A SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MORNING...SO COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...WINDS VEER MORE TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON...AND THE GFS IS ALSO SHOWING FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE AREA...WHICH IS REASONABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF OF A HURRICANE. I HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS GOING INTO WED AFTERNOON...BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE I THINK THEY CAN BE REMOVED. I ALSO RAISED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WED- ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT. I EXPECT WE WILL CLEAR OFF ENOUGH WED NIGHT WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TO SEE LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. STILL HAVE STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY...THEN SEE CUMULUS DEVELOPING AND SPREDING OUT BENEATH THE STRONG INVERSION ALOFT. I STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ WP/JJ/ 249 FXUS61 KCTP 300716 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 316 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY)... T.S. KATRINA ABOUT TO ENTER WESTERN TN AT PRESENT. MUCH OF CENTRAL PA IN LULL BETWEEN DEPARTING UPSTATE NEW YORK SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA'S APPROACHING CIRCULATION OVER SRN OHIO AND WV. GFS TRACK PREFERRED OVER ALL OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS THIS MORNING DUE TO LATEST TRENDS AND GOOD CONSISTENCY. KATRINA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO T.D. STRENGTH LATER TODAY...TPC TRACK HAS CENTER OF CIRC. REACHING NEAR KERI BY 7 AM WED...LIKE THE TRACK BUT THINK FORWARD SPEED WILL BE EVEN FASTER. MAIN THREATS WITH THIS TRACK WILL BE LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND FAVORABLE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE PATH OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. WANT TO AGAIN STRESS THAT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE KATRINA EXITS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN COLLABORATION WITH KPBZ AND KBUF...WILL ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR MY WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES VALID 17Z TODAY THROUGH 17Z WED. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON. FURTHER SOUTH...ACROSS THE LAUREL MOUNTAINS...ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE LIKELY. THESE AMOUNTS WOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE RIVER FLOODING...BUT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO TRAINING LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... KATRINA LIFTS NW OF CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING... LEAVING BALMY AND QUITE BREEZY CONDS IN ITS WAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER WIND ADVISORIES BEHIND THE STORM AS STRONG PRESSURE RISES ARRIVE. GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDS SEEN FROM THU ONWARD WITH COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE CANADIAN AIR MASS ADVECTING INTO PA BY FRIDAY AND SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033 FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON WEDNESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...DEVOIR AVIATION...MARTIN 380 FXUS63 KIWX 300716 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 213 AM EST TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM... 00Z GUIDANCE STRUGGLING W/HANDLING OF REMNANT KATRINA CIRCULATION. AS OF 06Z...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MID LVL FTR OVR SW TN AND WELL AHD OF 06Z PROGS W/A CONTD TYPICAL UNDERESTIMATE OF SFC LOW INTENSITY. COMPARED TO LAST EVENING...TS CYCLONE POSITION NE OF PROGGED POSITION AND LATEST HPC GUIDANCE BUT ALSO NOTED W/LATEST TREND IN 00Z GFS WHICH BY ALL ACCOUNTS SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON SYS AS IT ACCELERATES NEWD. STRUGGLE THIS MORNING AGAIN LIES W/WWD EXTENT OF PRECIP SHIELD AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE TN VALLEY TODAY BUT LOOKS TO BE A BIT EWD OF PREV EXPECTATIONS YET STILL A HEAVY RAIN THREAT SE CORNER LT THIS AFTN AND OVERNIGHT INADV OF MID LVL CNTR AND DEEPENING MSTR FLUX. WILL LEAVE THINGS PRETTY MUCH AS IS BUT WRN POP EXTENT MAY BE OVERDONE SOMEWHAT AT THIS POINT. WILDCARD OUTSIDE OF THAT LIES W/SFC TROF EXTNDG SWWD OUT OF UPR TROF OVR ERN ONT. 00Z NAM SUGGESTION OF CONV ALG THIS BNDRY LT AFTN/EVENING IN CONCERT W/STRENGTHENING LL MSTR FLUX HAS MERIT W/XPCD DESTABILIZATION UNDERNEATH INCIPIENT MID LVL DRY SLOT XPCD. ALTHOUGH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITHIN LEFT FLANK OF DECAYING TROPICAL SYS STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE FOR A VRY TIGHT QPF GRADIENT OVERNIGHT...NOTHING NORTHWEST TO 2 INCHES FAR SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE GOING TEMP FCST LOOKS GREAT W/AFTN RAIN ARRIVAL FAR S/SE AND DEEPENING CLOUD SHIELD S-N THROUGH THE DAY. && .LONG TERM... THE MAIN THING TO CONTEMPLATE FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME IS WHAT THE EFFECTS ARE GOING TO BE FROM KATRINA ON WEDNESDAY. WATCHING CURRENT SATELLITE PICTURES, KATRINA IS MOVING QUITE QUICKLY NORTH AND EASTWARD. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF KATRINA...UP NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH OHIO AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THEY MAY NOT BE HANDLING THE SPEED CORRECTLY OF THE MOVEMENT OF KATRINA. GFS80 MOVES KATRINA THE FASTEST ALONG THIS TRACK HAVING THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AT 12Z WED AND THEN OVER NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN VERMONT BY 00Z THUR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP TO MOVE KATRINA ALONG ON ITS PROJECTED PATH. WITH NUMERICAL POP VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALSO VERY LOW, HAVE PULLED ALL RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF KATRINA, OVER THE NEXT SHIFT OR TWO, POP VALUES AND AREAL COVERAGE COULD ALSO BE DECREASED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ALSO BE LESS ON WEDNESDAY THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT IF KATRINA WAS TO QUICKLY MOVE BY OUR CWA. WE COULD HAVE HAD SOME RAIN ON THURSDAY; BUT THE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS OUR CWA WILL WEAKEN AND ALMOST BE NON-EXISTENT THROUGH OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. 500MB FLOW IS FAIRLY ZONAL ON THURSDAY WITH BASICALLY NO INDICATION OF A TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE OVER OUR CWA FOR THE REST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD TO MONDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION... CONTD OVERALL TONE FM PREV FCST. STILL A STRUGGLE W/NWD EXTENT OF PRECIP SHIELD DUE TO KATRINA TONIGHT BUT EARLY INDICATION IS BRUNT TO PASS ACRS SE CORNER OF CWA W/VFR XPCD AT SBN AND TEMPO MVFR IN SHRA/BR AT FWA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE WILDCARD LIES W/STALLED SFC TROF EXTNDG SWWD FM UPR TROF OVR ERN ONT AND OF WHICH FIRED CONVN THIS EVENING. SOME SUGGESTION PER 00Z NAM THAT THIS MAY AGAIN FIRE LT THIS AFTN AND EVENING AS STG MSTR FLUX DVLPS INADV OF KATRINA AND SOME DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WITHIN MID LVL DRY WEDGE THIS AFTN. ATTM FAVORED AREA APPEARS TO LIE BTWN TAF SITES BUT ALSO LOW PROB EVENT ANYWAY AND LEFT OUT. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN LONG TERM...LOTHAMER 660 FXUS61 KCTP 300717 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 316 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY)... T.S. KATRINA ABOUT TO ENTER WESTERN TN AT PRESENT. MUCH OF CENTRAL PA IN LULL BETWEEN DEPARTING UPSTATE NEW YORK SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA'S APPROACHING CIRCULATION OVER SRN OHIO AND WV. GFS TRACK PREFERRED OVER ALL OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS THIS MORNING DUE TO LATEST TRENDS AND GOOD CONSISTENCY. KATRINA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO T.D. STRENGTH LATER TODAY...TPC TRACK HAS CENTER OF CIRC. REACHING NEAR KERI BY 7 AM WED...LIKE THE TRACK BUT THINK FORWARD SPEED WILL BE EVEN FASTER. MAIN THREATS WITH THIS TRACK WILL BE LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND FAVORABLE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE PATH OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. WANT TO AGAIN STRESS THAT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE KATRINA EXITS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN COLLABORATION WITH KPBZ AND KBUF...WILL ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR MY WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES VALID 17Z TODAY THROUGH 17Z WED. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON. FURTHER SOUTH...ACROSS THE LAUREL MOUNTAINS...ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE LIKELY. THESE AMOUNTS WOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE RIVER FLOODING...BUT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO TRAINING LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... KATRINA LIFTS NW OF CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING... LEAVING BALMY AND QUITE BREEZY CONDS IN ITS WAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER WIND ADVISORIES BEHIND THE STORM AS STRONG PRESSURE RISES ARRIVE. GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDS SEEN FROM THU ONWARD WITH COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE CANADIAN AIR MASS ADVECTING INTO PA BY FRIDAY AND SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... MAINLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS INTO WED...AS FRONT STALLS...AND THE REMAINS OF KATRINA HEADS TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES...MAINLY NW AND SE PARTS OF THE CWA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033 FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON WEDNESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...DEVOIR AVIATION...MARTIN 038 FXUS63 KLMK 300717 AFDLMK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 317 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT-TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... AT 06Z THE SURFACE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS OVER TUPELO MISSISSIPPI. GFS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE STORM AT 00Z AND VERIFIED WELL AT 06Z. GFS IS ALSO MODEL OF CHOICE OF NHC. SO...WILL FAVOR ITS SOLUTION. THE CENTER OF KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE BOWLING GREEN AREA AROUND NOON AND THEN NEAR CINCINNATI BY THIS EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION IT WILL BRING PLENTY OF RAIN...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH PWATS ARE AROUND 2.5 INCHES TODAY...THE STORM IS MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY SO AMOUNTS MAY BE A BIT LESS THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...PERHAPS MORE IN THE 1.5 TO 3 INCH RANGE. ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT TODAY SOME LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ABLE TO GET GOING LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR...AS IS THE CASE WITH STRONG TROPICAL SYSTEMS SUCH AS THIS ONE...A SEVERE THREAT IS THERE INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. BUFKIT HELICITY VALUES INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS MORNING AND PEAK AROUND MID-DAY. THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SPIN-UP APPEARS TO BE EAST AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEW CASTLE TO BOWLING GREEN TO STANFORD...INCLUDING LEXINGTON AND THE BLUE GRASS. IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY BUT BY AND LARGE THE WINDS SHOULDN'T GET OUT OF HAND. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. AS KATRINA MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT RAIN AND BREEZES WILL SUBSIDE AND THE OVERCAST WILL BREAK UP. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS...PERHAPS RISES OF 4 TO 6 DEGREES FROM MORNING TEMPERATURES. 13 .LONG-TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... REMNANTS OF KATRINA SHOULD MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE FA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT QUICKLY GETS KICKED NE BY UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DOWN TO TEXAS. SHOULD BE A SHARP GRADIENT FROM DRY TO WET CONDITIONS BEHIND THE SYSTEM. LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE IS PROGGED JUST UPSTREAM OF THE DYING SYSTEM...SO WILL END ALL MENTION OF RAIN IN CWA BY 15Z WED. WITH ANY CLEARING BEHIND KATRINA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE LOW 80S. RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALONG WITH A SMALL AREA OF WEAK DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF 250MB JET. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO GENERATE ISLD/SCT SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING. KEPT DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW. AFTER THAT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...WITH MAINLY NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BOARD. ENSEMBLE MOS SHOWS MUCH DRIER DEWS FROM FRI AFT THROUGH EXTENDED FORECAST. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES RUNNING AROUND THE 1380-1390M RANGE...WHICH SHOULD YIELD ROUGHLY LOW 80S FOR THE REGION FOR HIGHS. LOWS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR 60...WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS BLUEGRASS REGION. AL && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT/11 PM CDT FOR ALL COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT/3 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. IN...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST FOR ALL SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. && $$ 236 FXUS62 KCAE 300719 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 318 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY)... UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEAKENING AS TROPICAL STORM KATRINA MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWING RAINBAND DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN GEORGIA/EAST ALABAMA...ODELS SHOW MOISTURE FLUX INTO CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. BEST LIFT REMAINS MAINLY WEST OF THE CWA AS STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO KENTUCKY. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS LOOK MOIST WITH PRECIP WATER AROUND 2.30 INCHES. 0-1KM SHEAR INCREASING DURING THE MORNING AND STRONG BY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER STORM CENTER LOCATION...ALONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WILL FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN THE PIEDMONT AND CSRA TODAY WITH CHANCE POPS EAST AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS. MODEL VAD WIND PROFILES SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL ISSUE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS BEST FORCING NORTH OF REGION. LOW CHANCE POPS EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY EASTERN ZONES AS MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE COAST. WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THRU AREA IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH DECREASING CLOUDS INTO THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED. && .AVIATION... EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL HELP CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE HURRICANE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA WILL CAUSE WIND GUSTS NEAR 22 KNOTS AT THE TERMINALS TODAY. STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL CWA. GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL CWA. && $$ 337 FXUS63 KPAH 300724 AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 223 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... BIGGEST CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE DEALING WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. GFS HAS APPARENTLY HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE TRACK...STRENGTH...ETC OF KATRINA...HOWEVER LATEST WATER VAPOR SAT PIX SHOWING CIRCULATION CENTER STARTING TO RECURVE TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF THE BORDERS OF TN...AL...AND MS...NEAR SAVANNAH TN WHICH IS 75 TO 100 MILES FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE GFS FORECAST IT TO BE AT 06Z...CONSEQUENTLY TIMING AND DURATION OF THE HEAVY PRECIP WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. HAVE DIVIDED THE FIRST PERIOD IN HALF. CONTINUED TO HIT THE POPS...WX...QPF HARD THIS MORNING...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA. EXCEPT FOR THAT AREA...WILL DROP POPS TO CHC CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS THAT WERE CATEGORICAL OR LIKELY THIS MORNING. PRECIP WILL END TONIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS KATRINA QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...BUT DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE...NO PRECIP IS FORECAST WITH ITS PASSAGE. NO OTHER POPS AT THIS TIME BEYOND 2ND PERIOD (TONIGHT). WILL MAKE NO CHANGES BEYOND 5TH PERIOD. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6PM CDT. MO...NONE. IL...FLOOD WATCH SE IL ALONG/EAST OF I57/I24 UNTIL 6 PM CDT. IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6PM CDT. && $$ JAP 823 FXUS61 KLWX 300725 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 323 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT... BIG QUESTION FOR TODAY AND TNGT WILL BE SVR THREAT. ATTM WEAKENING KATRINA IS LOCATED IN SRN TN (SW OF NASHVILLE)...AND MOVING TO THE NNE. STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR AND MERGE INTO LARGE BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATION NE THROUGH KY/OH/PA. HVY RAINS SHOULD REMAIN RELEGATED IN THOSE LOCATIONS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE REMNANTS OF THE STORM WILL TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...AS INDICATED BY SLGT SHIFT E IN THE GFS AND ALSO IN THE 3 HR PRES FALLS IN SRN KY WITH RIDGE OF PRES FALLS INTO WRN WV ATTM. EVEN SO...HVY RAIN THREAT WOULD STILL BE MINIMAL BUT SVR THREAT ENHANCED...AS WELL AS A LITTLE BETTER SYNOPTIC WINDS DUE TO GRAD. SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE OFF THE GFS SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY AND TNGT. FIND THE NAM TO BE UNRELIABLE DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES (IT IS NOW TRACKING FURTHER W THAN THE GFS ACROSS WRN OH WHICH SEEMS WRONG). WINDS AND OVERALL SHEAR MAY BE STRONGER THAN THE GFS INDICATES IF THE LOW TRACK IS A LITTLE FURTHER E AND ALSO MAINTAINS BETTER GRADIENT...WHICH IS WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING EVER SINCE LANDFALL. ONE PROBLEM IN SVR THREAT IS PERSISTENT BL ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE MID ATLC REGION. THIS MAY KEEP LOW OVC GOING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ESP TO THE E OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR. ALSO CONSIDER THE LOWER SUN ANGLE OF LATE SUMMER. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...AND CONSIDERING MOD RISK FROM SPC ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF OUR CWFA PRIMARILY FOR TORNADOES (15% THREAT LEVEL)...THINK THE BEST THREAT OF ISO TORNADOES WILL BE IN THE I-81 AND BLUE RIDGE AREAS. FOR NOW WE PLAN TO MENTION SOME STORMS MAY BE SVR IN THE FCST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AND LET LATER SHIFTS FINE TUNE TO INCRS TO MENTION TOR OR REMOVE THE THREAT ALTOGETHER (NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO MENTION TOR IN THE FCST). THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL QUESTIONABLE FACTORS SO WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW AND CLOUDINESS...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO PA...WITH ALL OF THE BEST DYNAMICS TO THE NE OF THE LOW. THUS ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SMALLER CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY. JB && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY... OBSERVATIONS...500MB HEIGHT/ANOMALY NORTHERN HEMISPHERE PATTERN DURING THE PAST 5 DAYS INDICATES A PROGRESSIVE WAVE PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA...AND THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WATERS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS KATRINA MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE JAMES BAY...AND A RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST. 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES TROPICAL STORM KATRINA OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST NORTHEAST INTO JAMES BAY. A 1016MB ANTICYCLONE WAS LOCATED EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG. MODELS...THE 00Z NAM/GFS/CANADIAN ALONG WITH THE 12Z EUROPEAN AND UKMET WERE EXAMINED. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH INITIAL HEIGHT RISES THEREAFTER. MODELS VARY IN TIMING AND DEPTH OF A REINFORCING WAVE WHICH MAY REDEVELOP A TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC LATE DURING THE WEEK. CONSENSUS BUILDS HEIGHTS FROM THE LATE WEEKEND THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK...ALLOWING THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD IN. ENSEMBLES...12Z GFS 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLES INDICATE KATRINA WILL PHASE WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MIDWEEK...ACCELERATING NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE DURING THE WEEK. A SECOND WAVE ALLOWS A TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC EARLY THIS WEEKEND...WHICH MOVES NORTHEAST AND ALLOWS RIDGING TO BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLE MOS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INDICATE MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S DURING THE MID WEEK...TO AROUND 80 FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD. MEAN POPS FALL BELOW MENTIONABLE CRITERIA THURSDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FORECAST RATIONALE...PHASED SYSTEM SHOULD BE TRANSITIONING TO KATAFRONTIC FROM ANAFRONTIC WEDNESDAY AS THE MIDLEVEL SYSTEM PROPAGATES EAST. GIVEN THE HEALTHY LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE MIDLEVEL WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH. THIS SHOULD IN SOME FORM ALLOW FOR LOWERING HEIGHTS AND A REDEVELOPMENT OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL CONUS SURFACE HIGH FROM BUILDING IN. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE HOW MUCH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...SO KEPT IT OPTIMISTIC AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING THE TROUGH TO PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/INCREASING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES AND PLEASANT WEATHER SHOULD PRESIDE. ROGOWSKI && .AVIATION... HAVE MENTION LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEGINNING THIS AFTN THROUGH THIS EVNG...GFS 850 WINDS AROUND 50 KT AND THESE COULD BE A LITTLE UNDERDONE ACTUALLY. && .MARINE... SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT CRANK UP SOME...WITH BL WINDS OFF THE GFS AROUND 30 KT. FOR THIS SHIFT WE WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADV FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING LATE TNGT AND ENDING LATE WED NGT WHEN THE GRAD BEGINS TO SLACK OFF. TIDE LEVELS ARE ONLY RUNNING ABOUT A HALF-FOOT ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THINK WITH SOME STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...WE WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS LATE TNGT TIL LATE WED NGT. && $$ 728 FXUS61 KAKQ 300729 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 329 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... EVEN THOUGH CENTER OF KATRINA SHOULD REMAIN WELL W OF THE AREA TODAY...STILL A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD TORNADOES ACROSS AT LEAST WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. AS TS KATRINA MOVES NWD TODAY...SLY LLJ ON ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY INCREASES...WITH GFS SHOWING 35 KTS FROM S AT 850 MB BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SFC FLOW SE...AND UPPER FLOW INCREASING FROM THE SW...WITH 40 KT AT 500 MB. GFS GRIDDED DATA INDICATE ZERO TO 1 KM SHEAR VALUES INCREASING OVER WRN COUNTIES TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS. ZERO TO 1 KM SHEAR VALUES DROP OFF AS ONE GOES FARTHER E. THESE SHEAR PARAMATERS SUGGEST ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHEAR PARALLEL S TO N BANDS...AND POSSIBLY MINI SUPERCELLS...WITH ISOLD TORNADOES A POSSIBILITY...GIVEN ADEQUATE INSTABILTY. THIS SHOULD BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE SUNSHINE. FOR THIS REASON...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED OUR EASTERN VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES...MAINLY W OF INTERSTATE 95...IN A MODERATE RISK...WITH SLIGHT RISK INDICATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. AS KATRINA EXISTS THE NE UNITED STATES...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRY SLOTTING WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF...SO WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... FRONT OFFSHORE BY THU. LOOKS LIKE DRY...AND RELATIVELY LESS HUMID CONDITINIONS ON TAP FOR FRI THROUGH MON. && .AVIATION...VFR CNDTNS ATTM MOST SITES (XCPT FOR THE USUAL DENSE FOG AT SBY). MAYBE SOME LCL IFR CNDTNS ARND SR DUE TO FOG...OTW VFR XPCTD TDY. HAVE ADDED CHC TSRA IN FOR RIC AS THE REMNANTS OF KARTINA PASS BY TO THE W. WILL PRBLY ADD TSRA (AFTR 18Z) TO CSTL TAF SITES WITH 12Z ISSUANCE. && .MARINE...NO FLAGS TDY AS SE FLOW REMAINS AOB 15KTS. PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO TIGHTEN UP AFTR MIDNITE TONITE AND WED INCRG S-SE WNDS INTO 15-20 KTS RANGE. THIS RESULTS IN SEAS APPRCHG 5 FT. THUS WILL HEADLINE SCA (FOR SEAS) STARTING LATE TONITE ACROSS NRN WTRS...THEN MINIMAL SCA CNDTNS (WND WISE) ALL MARINE AREAS WED. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...18 AVIATION/MARINE...44 265 FXUS63 KAPX 300732 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 332 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STILL EXTENDING FROM THE LOW THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES. LAST IN A LONG LINE OF SHORT WAVES IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU UPPER MICHIGAN...GENERATING A THIN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY STRETCHING FROM EAST OF ANJ TO ISQ TO JUST WEST OF GREEN BAY. FURTHER UPSTREAM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MID WEST AND NW GREAT LAKES...AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA CHURN TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. NRN EDGE OF THE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA CURRENTLY EXTENDS THRU NRN IL...SRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND IS MAKING SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS. VERY FEW FORECAST ISSUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA SERVE TO STAGNATE THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPSTREAM WX FEATURES. AFTER A MINIMAL CHANCE OF A LINGERING SHOWER THIS MORNING VIA THE FINAL SHORT WAVE...CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THRU THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. TODAY...ELONGATED AREA OF DPVA RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DROP SE THRU THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA...AND SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED BY LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND BY WARMING ALOFT (ABOVE 800 MB). WILL ADD A MINIMAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MORNING FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF M-32...BUT WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON DRY WITH THE ANTICIPATION THAT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY ALL DAY. SKIES SHOULD STAY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF A MAINLY BKN LOW CLOUD DECK. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS MICHIGAN AS THE FINAL SHORT WAVES EXITS EAST AWAY FROM THE STATE. UPPER RIDGE AXIS REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE. CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE AND THIN SOMEWHAT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE STABLE/DRIER AIR. BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND EVEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO WARRANT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THRU THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REACH WRN SECTIONS OF MICHIGAN TOWARD EVENING...WITH A SURFACE LOW AND FRONT FAST ON ITS HEELS AS IT MOVES INTO WISCONSIN. MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE LACKING WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE PARENT LOW. ALL OF WEDNESDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE 70S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BECOME A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES APPEAR THE BETTER LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF MICHIGAN CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THRU THURSDAY...BUT WILL ADVERTISE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THRU. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 007 FXUS62 KFFC 300733 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 331 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM... THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT TERM IS DOMINATED BY WHAT IS CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM KATRINA. AT AFD TIME...KATRINA WAS WORKING HER WAY THROUGH NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE. THE FINAL COUPLE OF NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RAIN BANDS WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INDICATIONS ON THE GFS WITH 200 MB DIVERGENCE AND PW MAXIMA ARE NOT AS CLEARLY JUXTAPOSED AS THEY HAVE BEEN ON PREVIOUS RUNS...SO DO NOT FEEL THAT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS LIKELY. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN AND CERTAINLY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT OF FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE BANDS AND THE TRAINING OF THE CELLS AS THEY MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT AS CELLS APPROACH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE MONTHS OF ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED. THUS THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE NORTHWEST...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY. BEHIND THESE RAIN BANDS...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS KICKING IN FULL FORCE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM. SOME SORT OF PHENOMENON... WHETHER SIMPLE SUBSIDENCE OR SOMETHING MORE COMPLICATED...IS BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE IN AREAS JUST TO OUR WEST. BASED ON REPORTS COMING OUT OF ALABAMA A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA UNTIL 6 AM. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE LIKELY TO STILL BE MET AFTER THESE STRONG WINDS PASS BY...AND FOR NOW THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING. MODEL PROGS OF HELICITY CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 200-300 M2/S2 THROUGH GENERALLY MID-MORNING...AND 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES APPROACH 40KTS. HOWEVER...FOR THE LATTER...MODEL RESOLUTION AT THESE LEVELS ARE SOMETIMES NOT SUFFICIENT FOR EVEN A DECENT PROGNOSTICATION OF 0-1KM SHEAR...NEVERTHELESS THE TORNADO THREAT IS DEFINITELY A CONCERN THAT REMAINS AS LONG AS THESE FEEDER BANDS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE KATRINA MOVES OUT OF THE AREA COMPETING SYSTEMS BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE WITH ATTENDANT VORTICITY MAX SWEEPS THROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF KATRINA... AND THEN ONCE AGAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...SOME SORT OF TROUGH OR BOUNDARY STALLS JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. WHILE MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL ACTUALLY SEE A DRY BEGINNING TO SEPTEMBER...THIS STALLED BOUNDARY OR AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WARRANT KEEPING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THURSDAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASED THICKNESS VALUES WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF TO BELOW NORMAL...IN SOME CASES FIVE OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES. .LONG TERM... UPPER HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE FLOW TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WILL TEASE OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE CLOUDS...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME. THE GFS DOES INDICATE TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING THE SURFACE LOW TO COME ONSHORE SPREADING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE LEFT IT DRY FOR NOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATLANTA 82 72 89 69 / 60 40 20 10 ATHENS 80 71 90 68 / 50 40 20 10 GAINESVILLE 78 70 86 67 / 70 40 30 10 ROME 82 73 90 64 / 90 40 30 10 COLUMBUS 88 75 94 72 / 40 40 20 10 MACON 88 74 92 68 / 40 40 20 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR GAZ001-GAZ002-GAZ003-GAZ004- GAZ005-GAZ006-GAZ007-GAZ008-GAZ009-GAZ011-GAZ012-GAZ013-GAZ014- GAZ015-GAZ016-GAZ019-GAZ020-GAZ021-GAZ022-GAZ023-GAZ024-GAZ025- GAZ027-GAZ030-GAZ031-GAZ032-GAZ033-GAZ034-GAZ035-GAZ036-GAZ037- GAZ041-GAZ042-GAZ043-GAZ044-GAZ045-GAZ046-GAZ047-GAZ048-GAZ049- GAZ052-GAZ053-GAZ054-GAZ055-GAZ056-GAZ057-GAZ058-GAZ059-GAZ066- GAZ067-GAZ068-GAZ069-GAZ070-GAZ071-GAZ078-GAZ079-GAZ080-GAZ081- GAZ089-GAZ090-GAZ091-GAZ102. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA. TORNADO WATCH 757 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTHWEST GEORGIA...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTHWEST GEORGIA...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. && $$ TDP 441 FXUS61 KBGM 300734 AAA AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 335 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)... STRONG UL JET HAS HELPED SPARK LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON BACK EDGE OF PRECIP AREA. SOME OF THESE HAVE DEVELOPED INTERESTING ROTATIONAL SIGNATURES, INDICATIVE OF THE VERY FAVORABLE LL SHEAR. HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND STORMS HAVE ONLY APPROACHED SPS CRITERIA. A TRICKY START TODAY AS THERE ARE SEVERAL WX ELEMENTS TO DEAL WITH. THE PRECIP LINE IS TRACKING EAST, AND THE SAT IR IS CONFIRMING MODEL FORECASTS WHICH CLEAR SKIES BEHIND IT OVER NW CWA. THINK A GOOD DEAL OF MIST AND FOG WILL BE LEFT BEHIND FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK OVER SE WHERE PRECIP AREA WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING OUT. GIVEN THE SURPRISING ORGANIZATION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT, AM INCLINED TO AGREE WITH SPC ASSESSMENT THAT THERE IS SVR POTENTIAL OVER NE PA LATER TODAY. ADDING A LITTLE DIURNAL HEATING TO AN ALREADY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MAY DO THE TRICK AS BANDS MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CWA. TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...KATRINA REMNANTS WILL SPREAD A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION. NAM AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST STRONGEST BANDS COULD FORM OVER NORTHERN CWA BACK THROUGH FINGER LAKES...AND THIS WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH FOR FLOODING CONCERNS. OTHERWISE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WEST. DEFINITELY CONCERN FOR SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS IT WILL ALL COME DOWN TO DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. IF WE IMPORT COOL ATLANTIC AIR SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER IF FLOW IS MORE SOUTHERLY THEN SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO COMBO OF IMPRESSIVE HODOGRAPH AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. CONTINUING SPS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. DJP && .LONG TERM (WED NIGHT - MONDAY)... UPPER LEVEL TROF AND MOISTURE FROM KATRINA WILL MOVE THROUGH CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS ON THURSDAY MORNING FOR ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH CHC POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES BUT WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE NE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RRM && .AVIATION (29/18-30/18)... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING WITH SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND AN OVERCAST CIRRUS DECK. THIS EVENING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DUE TO HAZE. AFTER 06Z, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND MIST ALONG WITH CIGS AROUND 2-3K FT. FURTHER NORTH (SYR/UCA), VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST BUT INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP 0812Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS. AFTER 12Z, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN HAZE. RRM && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .PA...NONE. $$ 713 FXUS62 KTBW 300734 AFDTBW WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 330 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER OUR AREA TODAY AS KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH THRU THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SIMILAR TO MONDAY...THINK MAV POPS TOO HIGH. DEEP SW TROPICAL FLOW WILL KEEP PWS REMAINING HIGH TODAY...HOWEVER BASED ON COVERAGE YESTERDAY WITH SIMILAR FLOW...PREFER LOWER MET POPS SUGGESTING SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH SIMILAR PATTERN OF SW FLOW...WILL CONTINUE SIMILAR FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SCAT COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY NEAR 90. ON THU...WE'LL SEE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A TROF TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM KATRINA REMNANTS. THIS TROF WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON THU. WITH MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING...ESP NORTH OF TAMPA BAY...WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY NORTH OF THE BAY AND LEAVE SCATTERED SOUTH OF THE BAY. TEMPS AGAIN NEAR NORM FOR THU. && .LONG TERM (THU NIGHT-MON)...GFS PERSISTS IN BRINGING A WEAK FRONTAL FEATURE AND BASICALLY STALLING IT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THIS WEAK FRONT IS ACTUALLY ASSOCIATED TO THE REMNANT LOW FROM KATRINA WHICH GFS/ETA PLACE OVER NORTHEAST CANADA BY THURSDAY EVENING. PROBLEM WITH THIS SCENARIO IS THE PENETRATION AND TIMING OF THIS SURFACE FRONT. IF INDEED MAKES IT SOUTHWARD...CHANCES OF RAIN WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AS A DRY AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF IN THE WAKE OF KATRINA. AT THIS TIME THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SCENARIO WILL BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT...BUT NOT BRINGING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS GFS IS SHOWING. DURING SUMMER TIME IN FLORIDA IS TOUGH FOR ANY FRONT TO MAKE IT THAT FAR SOUTH. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS AS THEY ARE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST SINCE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE LOW ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT THAT MUCH AND WILL WAIT FOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS IN ORDER TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN JUST A DEGREE OR SO BELOW NORMALS...AND MORNING LOWS WILL REMAIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO VALUES UNLESS THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIRMASS CAN ACTUALLY MAKE IT FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH AT THIS POINT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO HAPPEN. && .MARINE...SCA AND HIGH SURF ADV WILL REMAIN POSTED TODAY AS SEAS STILL ON THE ROUGH SIDE FROM RESIDUAL EFFECTS OF KATRINA. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND HIGH SURF WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED TONIGHT. FOR PEOPLE GOING TO THE BEACH TODAY...WE ARE STILL URGING THEM TO AVOID GOING INTO THE WATER AS DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE TODAY. SCA MAY BE DROPPED ON WED AS SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD. FAIR TO FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO MAJOR FIRE WX CONCERNS ATTM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 81 90 78 / 50 20 50 20 FMY 89 79 89 77 / 50 20 50 20 GIF 91 78 91 77 / 50 20 50 20 SRQ 89 80 89 80 / 50 20 50 20 BKV 90 79 90 75 / 50 20 60 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR THE ENTIRE SUNCOAST FROM LEVY TO LEE COUNTY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETRO LONG TERM....REYNES 274 FXUS61 KILN 300738 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 340 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... LOW ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF KATRINA ALREADY UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE. THIS IS SIGNIFICANTLY QUICKER THAN EVEN THE LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS. THE FASTER GFS STILL APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS BUT EVEN IT APPEARS TO BE 3 TO 6 HOURS TOO SLOW. BASED ON STRAIGHT EXTRAPOLATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO...THE LOW SHOULD BE APPROACHING KCVG SOMETIME AROUND 19Z...ABOUT 5 HOURS FASTER THAN WHAT THE 00Z GFS IS SHOWING. ALSO...HEAVIEST RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LOW (WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED) BUT BASED ON THIS AND EXPECTED TRACK OF LOW...THINK HEAVY RAIN BAND WILL END UP A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER THINKING. THE 00Z MODELS SEEMED TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS...SHIFTING HEAVY RAIN BAND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST IN OUR FA THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY USED THE 00Z GFS AS A TEMPLATE FOR THE GRIDS...AND THEN JUST SHIFTED THINGS FORWARD A FEW HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HAVE HEAVIEST PCPN OVERSPREADING FA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION ENDS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT AND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF FA. STILL THOUGH...WILL HANG ON TO A CHANCE ON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MOST AREAS FOR CONSISTENCY/COLLABORATION PURPOSES. BASED ON FASTER MOVEMENT...QPF AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT BUT GIVEN TROPICAL AIRMASS...STILL THINK A SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. WILL CARRY JUST SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS WE SHOULD DESTABILIZE SOME THROUGH THE DAY. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...IN MORE FAVORABLE REGION OF LOW. WITH HIGH SHEAR VALUES...WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. WILL EXTEND FLOOD WATCH A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE WHITEWATER VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE MIAMI VALLEY. AS WE GET UP INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST...WILL CARRY HEAVY RAIN WORDING BUT IT APPEARS FFG VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH THAT FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED. AS IT NOW LOOKS LIKE BULK OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END EARLIER...WILL ADJUST END TIMES OF THE FLOOD WATCHES AND ONLY TAKE IT THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE SOUTH AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH. ALSO WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FASTER....THINK TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH TODAY SO WILL NUDGE HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR TODAY. SIMILARLY...WILL NUDGE UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AS WE SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 AVIATION (06Z-06Z)... RAIN BANDS FROM KATRINA HAVING A TOUGH TIME WORKING INTO SOUTHERN SITES THIS MORNING. HAVE PUSHED TIMING BACK AN HOUR OR TWO FOR ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...JUST FINE TUNED THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SOME IFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KCMH AND KCVG...THEREFORE HAVE ADDED THOSE TO TEMPO GROUP. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS TO MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK. (ISSUED 342 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005) LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE REMAINS OF KATRINA. A WEAK BNDRY/TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GFS TIME HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE...SO WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY. IN FACT...AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED DRY AS WELL...AS GFS TIME HEIGHT PROFILES STILL LOOK VERY DRY THROUGH MONDAY. LOOKING AT GUIDANCE AND HPC...HIGH AND LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLOOD WATCH FOR OHZ070>074-077>082-088 UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY. ...FLOOD WATCH FOR OHZ045-046-051>056-060>065 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. KY...FLOOD WATCH FOR KYZ089>100 UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY. IN...FLOOD WATCH FOR INZ050-058-059 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. ...FLOOD WATCH FOR INZ066-073>075-080 UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY. && $$ 699 FXUS64 KMRX 300738 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 340 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA NEAR TUPELO MISSISSIPPI WITH WINDS AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTING TO 45 MPH BEING REPORTED AROUND NORTHERN MS AND WEST TN. THE CENTER OF KATRINA APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AND LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN EARLIER FORECASTED...AND THE 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE INITIALIZED AROUND 30 MILES TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE ACTUAL CENTER. THUS...WILL TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD A FASTER OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE MODELS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST. OVERALL..THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DETAILS OF KATRINA FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...BUT VAD WIND PROFILES FROM KMRX AND KHTX INDICATE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS AROUND 3000 FT AGL. WINDS AT CHA AND CSV INCREASED TO AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS THE RAIN BANDS MOVED THROUGH AND LOWERED THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WILL PLAN TO CONTINUE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY AND MENTION THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE REACHED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE VALLEY AREAS DURING THE STRONGER RAIN BANDS. WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...SOUTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST NC THROUGH TONIGHT...WHERE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SATELLITE IMAGES AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS REVEAL DRIER AREA CIRCULATING AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CENTER OF KATRINA...SO THINK THAT RAIN WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME MAINLY SCATTERED IN NATURE BY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS UNTIL THE SYSTEM COMPLETELY EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...THINK A STRONG UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TODAY...BUT SLOWLY END TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH KATRINA MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD CREATE STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS TODAY...WHICH SHOULD NOTICEABLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS. A SHORT WAVE THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND KATRINA ON WEDNESDAY... PRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS. AS WITH MOST TROPICAL SYSTEMS...INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WILL PLAN TO MENTION MAINLY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTORMS. IN ADDITION...STRONG HELICITY VALUES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...SO THINK THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED WEAK TORNADOES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE PAST WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 81 69 86 65 / 100 50 20 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 83 69 84 63 / 100 60 20 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 81 69 85 63 / 100 60 20 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 68 83 60 / 100 70 30 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC......FLOOD WATCH TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR NCZ060-061. LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR NCZ060-061. TN......FLOOD WATCH TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR TNZ012-013-035-036-067- 081>088-098>102. LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR TNZ012>014-035>041-067>074-081>088- 098>102. VA......NONE. && $$ DMG 589 FXUS63 KLOT 300740 AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 240 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS MORNING. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP EAST OF THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT. BUT SOME PRECIP MAY CLIP THE FAR SE SECTIONS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS GOING THERE. OTHERWISE SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST SIDE OF KATRINA MOVE THRU THE REGION. SFC PRESSURE STILL QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THE 00Z MODELS SHOW SO EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW INDIANA. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT IS THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH PUSHES THRU THE MIDWEST AND LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A SHOWER OR TWO NORTH INTO WI BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS HERE WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW THURS. MAIN AFFECT OF THIS FRONT WILL BE COOLER TEMPS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI...DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE 70S BUT BACK NEAR 80 OR THE LOWER 80S INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS FRI MORNING LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S POSSIBLY AN UPPER 40 AT THE TYPICAL COOL LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE CLOSE ON TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM THOUGH HIGHS NEAR 80 OR MAYBE EVEN ONLY UPPER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA TODAY WITH THICKENING CLOUD COVER. && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LK MI...NONE. $$ 590 FXUS64 KFWD 300740 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 240 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... IN SHORT...NO RAIN IN THE NEAR FUTURE WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...BUT SLOWLY DROPPING BY THE WEEKEND. REMNANTS OF KATRINA TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT SUPPLY OF NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW...KEEPING HUMIDITIES LOW AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO MORE NORMAL VALUES. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL HAMPER RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AS WE GET A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND DROP TEMPS. AFTER LAST WEEKS STRETCH OF 100 DEGREE AFTERNOON HIGHS AND NEAR 80 DEGREE MORNING LOWS...THIS WILL BE MUCH MORE PLEASANT...DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN. FOR NOW...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL IMPROVE UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE WESTERLIES REMAIN TO THE NORTH...KEEPING THE GULF MOISTURE CUT OFF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 96 72 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 WACO, TX 97 70 99 70 / 0 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 93 67 95 68 / 10 0 0 0 DENTON, TX 95 70 98 70 / 0 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 94 71 98 71 / 0 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 96 73 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 95 70 98 71 / 10 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 96 70 98 71 / 0 0 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 98 72 99 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 75/42 763 FXUS63 KDMX 300743 AFDDMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 245 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERNS ARE TIMING/COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES. LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BRING FRONT THROUGH THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. WONDER IF KATRINA WILL HAVE ENOUGH LEFT FOR SLOW TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOOKING AT DYNAMICAL FIELDS NOT THE GREATEST FOR DEVELOPMENT THOUGH SOME HINT AT DRIER PASSAGE OF FRONT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AIRMASS DOES DESTABILIZE AND CAPES INCREASE AS WELL AS SOME DECENT THETA ADVECTION. NOT GREAT MOISTURE TRANSPORT EITHER. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN SLGT CHANCE TO CHANCE BELIEVE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OVER NW INVOF IN THE MORNING THEN STATEWIDE IN THE AFTN AS FRONT MAYBE SLOWED. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND LOOKING AT SFC TRAJS EXPECT SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW GREATER THAN USUAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE DROP. BEHIND THE FRONT AS ADVERTISED EVEN DRIER AIR SO OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 50S TO EVEN UPPER 40S. BY WEEKEND UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO CENTRAL U.S, AND TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLOWLY. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ FORSTER 260 FXUS63 KICT 300744 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 244 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN CONVECTION POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED. TODAY-TONIGHT: OUR PROXIMITY TO THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL KEEP SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THEREFORE WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. FOR TONIGHT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT. IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT AM NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FEEL CHANCES WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND IT WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE, IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP, SO WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE POPS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: STILL VERY LITTLE CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE LOW-LEVELS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING A BIG COOL DOWN WITH THIS SYSTEM ON EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, AS THERE IS NOT A LOT OF COLDER AIR INFILTRATING IN BEHIND IT. HOWEVER, STILL CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE AROUND THAN THE MODELS WILL ADMIT TO AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MID-LEVEL ENERGY SEEMS FAIRLY WEAK AS THE BRUNT OF IT WILL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH, AND THERE WILL BE A HINT OF SOME WEAK DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET ACROSS THE REGION. THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: FLAT RIDGING BY GFS THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE A BIT MORE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MUCH WARMER AND DRIER MEDIUM RANGE MODEL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ETA PROMOTE A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT. IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OF THE ELEVATED NATURE TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...THOUGH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD DRIFT INTO OUR WESTERN PERIPHERY COUNTIES. WILL KEEP THIS TIME-FRAME DRY FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO WAIT FOR MODEL CONSISTENCY. THE GFS WITH THE FLAT RIDGING OVERHEAD, CONTINUES TO PROMOTE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AGAIN, CONSENSUS AMONG SURROUNDING WEATHER OFFICES IS TOO KEEP SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BUT IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE, THEN OUR TEMPERATURES COULD SOAR INTO THE LOWER 90S. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 90 66 88 64 / 0 5 20 20 HUTCHINSON 90 62 86 62 / 0 10 20 20 NEWTON 89 66 86 63 / 0 5 20 20 ELDORADO 89 66 88 63 / 0 5 20 20 WINFIELD-KWLD 91 66 91 64 / 0 5 20 20 RUSSELL 92 63 83 59 / 0 10 20 10 GREAT BEND 92 64 83 60 / 0 10 20 10 SALINA 92 65 85 62 / 0 10 20 10 MCPHERSON 90 64 86 61 / 0 10 20 20 COFFEYVILLE 91 64 91 64 / 0 0 20 20 CHANUTE 88 63 90 63 / 0 0 20 20 IOLA 87 63 89 63 / 0 0 20 20 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SEDLOCK/ 803 FXUS62 KILM 300745 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 345 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK TODAY...WITH A MODERATE RISK JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA (GRAZING MARLBORO COUNTY). HELICITY VALUES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AS THE END RESULT. WILL ISSUE A SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT...THOUGH BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IF TEMPERATURES CAN CRACK 90 AS GUIDANCE INDICATES THEN HEAT INDICES WOULD RANGE FROM 100-105. PLAN ON INCLUDING THE HEAT INDEX IN THE ZONE TEXT AND WILL ALSO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR HEAT INDICES AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. KATRINA IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN MS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE REMNANTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...THE BULK OF THE LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AS HEATING IS LOST IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND WITH MIXING SUSPECT THAT THE GUIDANCE SPEEDS WILL BE TOO LOW TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT THAT IS TAILING KATRINA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO TREND LOWER DURING WED NIGHT...HOWEVER WILL NOT SEE THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASSES UNTIL THIS WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... GFS SHOWING BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY WILL STILL BE A WARM DAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LACKING...HOWEVER LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY SAT NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THEN FROM NEW ENGLAND. && .AVIATION... OTHER THAN A BRIEF ENCOUNTER WITH MVFR VIS AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK...AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION AT KFLO...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THRU 06Z WED. INCLUDED GUSTS BOTH IN AND OUT OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AT KFLO...LATER SHIFTS MAY YET NEED TO TWEAK SPEEDS UP FURTHER. && .MARINE... S/SW WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE WATERS TODAY...AS THE KATRINA CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BROADEN. NOT FEELING TOO CONFIDENT ABOUT THE MODEL HANDLING OF WINDS...AS KCAE/KCLX VWPS SHOW A 25 KT LLJ ALREADY ESTABLISHED. MIXING IS...AS USUAL...AN ISSUE IN THE MARINE LAYER. BEST I DID FOR SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE GRIDS IS 18 KT...BUT FIGURE JUST ENOUGH GUSTINESS TO MAKE IT WORTH FORCING MENTION OF 20 KT. THE STRONG SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU WED...WITH FROPA NOW SLATED FOR WED NIGHT AS MODELS ARE A BIT FASTER IN LINE WITH THE QUICKER FORWARD SPEED OF KATRINA. BENIGN N/NE FLOW EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT. WW3 DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON 11-12 SEC SE SWELL MAKING IT INTO ALL THE BUOYS AND USC WAVE GAGE AT SPRINGMAID PIER. FORTUNATELY THE POWER OF THIS SWELL IS STILL QUITE LOW...AND HEIGHTS PORTRAYED IN WW3 GUIDANCE ARE NOT TOO FAR OUT OF LINE. WILL ADD A FOOT AT MOST...COMBINING WITH THE WIND WAVE TO GIVE US A MARGINAL SCA FOR SEAS TONIGHT (INTO WED FOR MY NC WATERS). RIP RISK CURRENTLY RUNNING LOW...BUT THE SWELL BEARS WATCH AS ANY INCREASE IN HEIGHT OR POWER MAY PUSH US TO MODERATE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AMZ250-252 TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AMZ254-256 TONIGHT && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...PFAFF AVIATION/MARINE...RAS 244 FXUS61 KBTV 300747 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 347 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE. THIS FEATURE HELPED ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST...FEATURE WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON THE AREA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION NOW MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AND THIS SHOULD KEEP BULK OF PRECIPITATION OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DRY THIS MORNING AND INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS RUTLAND... WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES. ONCE THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXISTS THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING MECHANISMS TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY MENTION A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD. A DISTINCT BREAK EXISTS BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE UP IN QUEBEC PROVINCE AND THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE KATRINA...WHICH SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT OF QUIET WEATHER BEFORE STEADIER RAINS MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL MENTION CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE REMAINS OF KATRINA TRACK RIGHT OVER THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK BETWEEN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AND HELP TO MIX THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WILL MENTION BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AND MENTION WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL THEREFORE BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE REMAINS OF KATRINA. LOOKING AT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT. IF THERE ARE ANY ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. WILL CONTINUE IDEA FROM DAY SHIFT AND ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REGARDING THIS EVENT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RATHER HIGH...3 INCHES IN ONE HOUR AND 6 INCHES IN 6 HOURS...AND SO FEEL FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED TO SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAM VERSUS ANY OF THE MAINSTEM RIVERS. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. BULK OF MOISTURE FROM KATRINA WILL EXIT THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY AND GOING FORECAST HAS ALL OF THESE IDEAS COVERED WELL AT THIS TIME. THUS NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .AVIATION... VFR TO MVFR COND FOR ALL SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING LOW CLDS W/ RAIN/FG THRU THIS MORNING FOR ALL AREAS. AFT 15Z...ALL SITES WILL SEE DECR IN LOW CLD DECK BUT WILL REMAIN IN AFOREMENTIONED CATEGORIES. WINDS LIGHT THRU 13Z-14Z THEN INCR OUT OF S IN VT...SW IN N NY...5 TO 15KTS. HIR TRRN WILL BE OBSCD. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION..........JN 917 FXUS64 KBRO 300749 AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 300 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO HIT THE CENTURY MARK OR ABOVE IN MANY INLAND LOCATIONS. NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT ALONG THE COAST TO INITIATE A SEA BREEZE...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN MORE WELL DEVELOPED AND SLOW MOVING SHOWERS. DOWN THE ROAD...THE GFS SHOWS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TRIGGERING CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA MADRES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING TOWARD DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. INCREASED POPS ARE REFLECTED ALONG THE RIVER DURING THAT TIME AS A RESULT. MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES BACK EAST AND OVERHEAD LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND...BUT IS FLATTENED AND PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BY PROGRESSIVE WAVES MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST. MORE SUMMER WEATHER WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED...WITH THE FORECAST OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IN THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK PERIOD. && .MARINE...BUOY020 REPORTED SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 4 FEET WITH A 10 SEC PERIOD. SWELLS FROM HURRICANE KATRINA WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY...WITH LOW SEAS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS WILL ALLOW SEABREEZE FRONT TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INLAND. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 800 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2005...THERE ARE INNUMERABLE BOUNDARIES CAUSED BY A NUMBER OF DYNAMICS THIS EVENING...AND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...KATRINA WAS THE CULPRIT. ALTHOUGH A RELATIVELY STABLE AMS IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH WEST FLOW ALOFT...SFC AND LLVL WIND FIELDS WERE DRIVEN CONTRARY TO THEIR NORMS WITH RECORD-SETTING TEMPERATURES ADDING ANOTHER VARIABLE. SHRAS/TSRAS WERE FIRED BEHIND THE SEABREEZE FNT LATE THIS PM... SOAKING WILLACY AND NRN CAMERON AND BRINGING NORTH WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH FM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MVG NORTH TO SOUTH. A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 101 DEGREES WAS SET AT MCALLEN TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 100 SET IN 1946. A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 103 DEGREES WAS SET AT BROWNSVILLE ALSO...BREAKING A VERY OLD RECORD OF 101 SET IN 1899. HRL REACHED 100. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS SUBSIDING NOW...BOUNDARIES ARE MVG INTO NRN BROOKS AND JIM HOGG...WITH MORE BOUNDARIES JUST NORTH OF LRD MVG QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP TOKEN POPS IN FCST FOR ALL AREAS UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW 97 79 97 79 94 79 / 20 00 10 00 20 00 BROWNSVILLE 100 78 97 79 95 78 / 20 00 10 00 20 00 FALFURRIAS 100 76 103 76 98 76 / 00 00 00 00 00 00 HARLINGEN 101 77 99 76 96 77 / 20 00 10 00 20 00 HEBBRONVILLE 103 78 104 76 97 75 / 00 00 00 00 00 00 MCALLEN 103 80 103 78 97 79 / 00 00 00 00 00 00 PORT ISABEL 95 80 95 80 92 77 / 20 00 10 00 20 00 RIO GRANDE CITY 106 78 103 78 97 76 / 00 00 00 00 00 00 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 94 83 93 82 92 81 / 20 00 10 20 00 00 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 54/55 THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO 348 FXUS63 KDTX 300750 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 350 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT SEE LITTLE REASON TO MAKE ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO EXISTING FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDED FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH LAST EVENING...AND MAY HELP DO SO AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM KATRINA LIFTS NORTH...ALTHOUGH HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW TROUGH GETTING ABSORBED INTO CIRCULATION FROM KATRINA. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN LAKES REGION HELD AT BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WRFXX WINDS TENDING ONLY SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN GFS...AND SOME SORT OF BLEND OF THESE TWO MODELS PROBABLY IN ORDER...GIVEN BETTER CONTINUITY OF LATE THAN NAM. AT 500 MB...LOW JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY MOVING LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE KATRINA MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN LAKES REGION. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CREEPING NORTH INTO SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND RESIDING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH MODEST BULGING NORTHWARD INTO AREA OF THETA E RIDGE. FRINGE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA LIFT LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT MOST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH WRFXX AND GFS NOT SHOWING MUCH SUCH LIFT FOR SOUTHEAST MI. MUCH OF FORECAST AREA IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300 MB JET LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT....THOUGH...AND VERY MODEST 850 TO 500 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE CLIPPING SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS WELL...WITH MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN PLACE. THUS...WILL LEAVE IN CURRENT TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION. WILL TWEAK WORDING A TAD FOR LESS EMPHASIS ON THUNDER...HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AT BEST. && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE EFFECTS OF KATRINA WILL FADE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION IS SLATED FOR ARRIVAL LATE THURSDAY...WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS IN ITS WAKE. THE GFS HAS TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP NORTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKES REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 105 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 ) AVIATION... HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA ARE ALREADY EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD HOLD OFF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING A BIT. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR KJYM TO KBAX. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. LOOKING AT THE SURFACE OBS... IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE DETROIT AREA IS GOING TO DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MUCH FOG AS WINDS ARE STILL AROUND 9KTS. SO WILL DOWNPLAY THE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE TAFS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF KATRINA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND LOWER CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE TUES EVENING AND STILL LOOK TO IMPACT MAINLY DETROIT AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY-LHZ441-LHZ442- LHZ443...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ422-LCZ460...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWD LONG TERM....MANN 869 FXUS63 KOAX 300751 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 250 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL IN SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SIMILAR IDEA IN HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM COMING ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW HIGH TO GO WITH POPS SINCE BOTH MODELS SHOW BEST UPPER SUPPORT TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH GFS A LITTLE DEEPER WITH MID LEVEL TROF AT 700MB...ITS ALSO FASTER IN MOVING OUT THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AT BOTH 850 AND 700MB WHICH REMAINS LIMITED TO FRONTAL ZONE. AS SUCH WILL LEAVE CURRENT LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST AS IS WITH ONLY SOME MINOR AREAL ADJUSTMENT TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THIS TIME. NEXT FRONT INDICATED BY EXTENDED MODELS COMES INTO AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WILL LET DAYSHIFT DECIDE IF ANY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THAT PERIOD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && FOBERT 085 FXUS63 KTOP 300757 AFDTOP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 257 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS EASTERN KANSAS IN AREA BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM KATRINA AND RIDGE FROM SOUTHWEST STATES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. SOME CLOUDS AROUND CIRCULATION OF KATRINA HAVE MOVED INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 77. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT RANGE THIS MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGE NUDGING INTO EASTERN KANSAS GRADUALLY SLIDES EASTWARD TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAYS HIGHS AS 850 MB TEMPS WARM UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT OVER PREVIOUS RUNS. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED TO BASICALLY WHAT THE SYSTEM BRINGS WITH IT AS FLOW AROUND KATRINA HAS THE GULF ESSENTIALLY CUT OFF WITH NORTHERLY FLOW IN SOUTH TEXAS. HAVE PRESERVED A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT MAKES IT'S WAY ACROSS THE STATE. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT BY A FEW DEGREES. NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS TIMING OF IMPULSES DIFFICULT AND NEW GFS SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF IN EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 427 FXUS63 KBIS 300758 AFDBIS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 300 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN NAM. GFS MUCH WEAKER ON CAPE THAN NAM. AGREE WITH CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK THAT WILL SEE MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TROUGH AND THAT STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES. WILL ALSO BUMP TEMPS UP A LITTLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE THICKNESSES IS ABOVE 579 DM AND 850 TEMPS ARE 24 DGRS AND HIGHER. COULD SEE NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH. GFS IS SHOWING 6 MB RISE IN 6 HRS WITH STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT SEE LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WITH STRONG GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND IT'S UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO SUNNY DAYS AND MILD TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT MAJORITY OF LONG TERM PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY BUT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN CWA MONDAY. WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ON STALLED FRONT...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA STILL LOOKS IN LINE...SO KEPT THINGS AS THEY WERE. ONLY OTHER CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WERE TO RAISE MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES A BIT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THERMAL RIDGING LOOKS PRETTY STRONG IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && $$ TSW/TWH 420 FXUS64 KOUN 300759 AFDOUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 259 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... WILL REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDING KATRINA TODAY. AS KATRINA MOVES OFF TOWARD THE NE... UPPER WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH SFC FRONT SOUTH TOWARD AREA. EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS AREA WED NIGHT... BUT WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE CONVERGENCE AND NOT THE BEST MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL HOWEVER LEAVE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS N WED NIGHT AS WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF ROCKIES COULD SEE A FEW MID LEVEL SHOWERS SKIRT ACROSS THAT PART OF STATE. OTHERWISE... MOST OF WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL ALLOW COOLER NIGHT TIME TEMPS. WILL ALSO REMOVE LOW POPS FOR NEXT SAT NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL KEEPING STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF AREA. NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 92 65 93 66 / 0 0 0 10 HOBART OK 93 65 94 65 / 0 0 0 10 WICHITA FALLS TX 95 67 97 68 / 0 0 0 10 GAGE OK 92 61 90 60 / 0 0 0 20 PONCA CITY OK 92 64 91 63 / 0 0 0 20 DURANT OK 93 68 95 69 / 10 0 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 30 858 FXUS64 KLUB 300759 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 300 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM... DRIER SINKING AIR WILL BE OVER WEST TEXAS TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THIS EVENING. THE NORTHERN PLAINS MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH WILL ASSIST IN DEEPENING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE WINDS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. DONT EXPECT WINDS TO GET HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 MPH. DRIER AIR AND VIRTUALLY FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO ATTAIN THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW CUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL DO VERY LITTLE TO BLOCK OUT ANY SUNSHINE SO HAVE GONE CLEAR IN THE GRIDS. THIS DRIER AIR WILL HELP THE REGION COOL QUICKLY IN THE EVENING BUT BELIEVE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH...WILL KEEP THE CWA FROM RADIATING AS MUCH AS THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE A 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED HIGHS FOR THIS MORNING. .LONG TERM... 00Z MODEL RUN INDICATES UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A RESULT HEIGHTS TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW WARMUP OVER THE CWFA. MODELS SHOW FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN PROVINCES OF CANADA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THIS TO AID IN PUSHING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT THINK FRONT TO STALL OVER THE CENTRAL FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GULF MOISTURE TO STILL BE LACKING...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT APPEAR ON TRACK AND SEE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE UPPER RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND OVER THE CWFA. HOWEVER GFS INDICATED A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO COME ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF THIS FEATURE CAN GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWFA. FOR NOW WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE ADDING POPS TO THE SOUTHERN CWFA. MODELS THEN SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THE START OF THE WORKWEEK NEXT WEEK AND ADVANCING TOWARD THE FA ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE RETAINED A DRY FORECAST...BUT WILL WATCH TO SEE HOW THE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK EVOLVES. XI && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 89 58 88 57 / 0 0 20 20 TULIA 89 58 89 59 / 0 0 20 20 PLAINVIEW 89 60 90 62 / 0 0 20 20 LEVELLAND 90 60 93 63 / 0 0 10 10 LUBBOCK 91 62 93 64 / 0 0 10 20 BROWNFIELD 93 62 94 65 / 0 0 10 10 CHILDRESS 93 63 95 65 / 0 0 20 20 SPUR 92 62 95 66 / 0 0 10 10 ASPERMONT 94 65 96 67 / 0 0 10 10 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 18/11 321 FXUS63 KIND 300804 AAA AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 300 AM EST TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATED DISCUSSION...AFTER LOOKING AT GFS AND HPC QPF...DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY SLIGHTLY TO THE N ADDING BROWN...MONROE...RUSH AND SHEBLY COUNTIES. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF KATRINA AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER ACRS CNTRL INDIANA TODAY AND TNGT WL BE BY FAR THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FCST. KATRINA IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM ATTM. HER POSITION WAS JUST E OF TUPELO MS AT 04Z PER H20 VAPOR IMAGERY. SAT ECLIPSE...SPARCE SFC DATA MAKES EXACT POSITION AT 06Z DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...ALTHOUGH BASED ON MOTION OVR THE PREVIOUS FEW H20 VAPOR PICS WAS LIKELY ACRS XTRM NWRN AL AT 06Z. THIS MESHES WELL WITH THE FCST TRACK OF THE NHC AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NE OF THE QUICKEST 06Z GFS PROG. NAM/NGM MUCH SLOWER OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS...WHILE GFS AND UKMET QUICKER AND CLOSER TO THE NHC TRACK. ASSOCIATED TIMING OF POPS AND QPF OF THE GFS ALSO ARE REAL CLOSE TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON'S IND FCST COUTESY OF IWX. SO...WL NOT MAKE ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES BUT ONLY MINOR TINKERING. REGIONAL RADAR PIX WERE SHOWING BULK OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA ACRS THE WRN HALF OF TN AND LIFTING NWD. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE RN TO BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE NE ALONG WITH THE TRACK OF KATRINA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE AROUND UPR VORTEX JUST S OF HUDSON BAY AND TO NEAR CINCINNATI BY 00Z THIS EVE AND INTO FAR WRN NY BY 12Z WED. GFS AND HPC CONT TO FCST NEAR 4 INCHES ACRS OUR XTRM SERN FA TAPERING OFF TO ONLY ABOUT A QUARTER INCH NW COUNTIES. BULK OF THE PRECIP TO SPREAD INTO SERN INDIANA THIS MRNG AND ECNTRL INDIANA BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP TO DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER DARK AS SYSTEM EXITS NE. WL KEEP SMALL MRNG POPS ON WED IN PER CURRENT FCST IN CASE GFS IS A BIT TOO FAST...BUT DON'T EXPECT MUCH AT ALL THEN. MODELS SHOWING HIGH HELICITY VALUES (400 UNITS/SEC SQUARED) TODAY AND TNGT ESP ACRS ERN FA TODAY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY LACKING WITH LI'S ONLY 0 TO -1. SO...ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE A LOT OF SPIN...AGREE WITH SPC IN KEEPING THE TORNADO THREAT JUST TO OUR E TODAY. SO...WL KEEP WIDESPREAD RAIN BUT ONLY ISOLATED TRW'S GOING. MUCH DRIER AIR...SFC RIDGE AND ZONAL FLOW TO SPREAD ACRS THE FA FM THE W WED PM WHICH WL ALLOW SKIES TO CLR. REST OF THE FCST LOOKS DRY WITH MN LVL RH'S MOSTLY 30-40% THROUGH LABOR DAY. WITH CLDS AND PRECIP ROLLING IN TODAY...AM IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MUCH COOLER MOS NUMBERS. WENT WITH COOLER FWC/GFS TNGT WITH N WINDS COMING IN BEHIND KATRINA. FINALLY...WITH SOME LATE DAY SS ON WED...PREFER MIX OF THE WARMER MET AND GFS. .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WASHINGTON TO CARTHAGE LINE. && $$ KOCH 432 FXUS64 KSJT 300810 AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 310 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM... QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING...WITH KATRINA WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE OFF TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...AND ARE NOT TOO FAR ABOVE CURRENT DEWPOINT READINGS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LITTLE LIGHT FOG DEVELOP BY SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. .LONG TERM... UPPER RIDGE TAKES CONTROL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH WET GROUNDS SHOULD HOLD THE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 90S FOR MOST AREAS. RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS DROPPING A FEW DEGREES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ABILENE 95 68 95 69 / 0 0 0 0 SAN ANGELO 93 67 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 JUNCTION 95 66 95 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 07 736 FXUS64 KLCH 300810 AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 310 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH AXIS...THAT WILL BE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR THE INSTABILITY PRODUCED AHEAD OF HIS TROUGH TO WORK WIT. WILL CALL FOR ONLY A LIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN EXTREMES OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MOISTURE IS ONLY MODERATE IN THAT AREA THIS MORNING AND DRYING IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. BEYOND THAT...IN THE WAKE OF KATRINA...DRY AIR IS SUPPOSED TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE AREA....BEGINNING TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERMS OF THE FORECAST. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE SLIGHT AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION... VFR. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 94 71 97 74 / 10 0 10 10 KBPT 95 71 98 75 / 10 0 10 10 KAEX 94 69 97 71 / 0 0 0 0 KLFT 93 74 96 74 / 10 0 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 352 FXUS64 KTSA 300811 AFDTSA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 311 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... ALL EYES ARE ON KATRINA WHICH IS NOW TURNING TO THE EAST AWAY FROM HERE. PART OF REASON IT IS TURNING IS BECAUSE OF A SHARP LEVEL SYSTEM THAT IS HEADED INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HEAD EAST THE NEXT FEW DAY EVENTUALLY DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. TIMING FOR THE FRONT TO BE CROSSING THE AREA WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS BASICALLY NO MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF IT...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE POPS. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH 20S BECAUSE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW LITLE OR NO QPF. THE UPPER WAVE WILL THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LEAVING BEHIND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD BECAUSE 850 MB TEMPERATURES STAY ABOUT THE SAME AS DO THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS. BOTH THE NAM MOS AND GFS MOS ARE TRENDED THAT WAY AND I KIND OF MIXED AND MATCHED THEM TO MAKE THE GRIDS LOOK THE WAY I WANTED THEM TOO. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 92 63 94 67 / 0 0 0 20 FSM 97 64 95 68 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 93 64 95 65 / 0 0 0 10 BVO 93 59 92 61 / 0 0 0 20 FYV 90 59 91 60 / 0 0 0 20 BYV 85 60 90 64 / 0 0 0 20 MKO 93 64 93 66 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 90 59 93 63 / 0 0 0 20 F10 91 63 92 65 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 97 67 97 68 / 0 0 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 4 LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 17 747 FXUS62 KMHX 300813 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 413 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION STILL EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH AN ARC OF SHOWERS MOVING NW ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS/PAMLICO SOUND. I WILL INITIALIZE FORECAST WITH HIGHEST POPS OUTER BANKS THIS MORNING THEN SHIFT HIGHEST POPS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRINGES OF THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WHICH WILL BE MOVING WEST OF THE MTS. SPS HAS ENTIRE REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...BUT BETTER INSOLATION WILL LEAD TO HIGHER CAPE VALUES ACROSS OUR REGION VS AREAS TO THE WEST. THUS STRONGER STORMS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE WITH WET MICROBURTS AND EVEN AN ISOLD TORNADO POSSIBLE. VERY HIGH DEWPOINT/TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND WITH TEMPS AROUND 90...WHICH WILL PRODUCE HI VALUES OF 100-105 THIS AFTERNOON. KATRINA WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WED WHERE IT WILL BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL AND MERGE WITH AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY. DEEPEST RH IS INDICATED BY THE MODELS TONIGHT INTO WED AFTERNOON THEN DECREASES LATE WED/WED NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. FORCING WILL BE WEAK TONIGHT AND WED AND HAVE LIMITED POPS TO 30-40%. WITH PW AOA 2.25" THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL EXIST. DRY WX OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD FLOOD POTENTIAL AND WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH ESPECIALLY WITH CONCENTRATED RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH KRISTINA REMAINING TO THE WEST. HIGHS ON WED ARE FORECAST INTO THE LOWER 90S AND WITH TROPICAL AIR STILL IN PLACE...HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-110 WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A HEAT ADVY MAY BE NEEDED. STRONGER FORCING IS INDICATED WED NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH/REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SIG HEIGHT FALLS AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...BUT MOIST DEPTH WILL BE LOW AND NEITHER THE NAM OR GFS IS FORECASTING MUCH QPF ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE I WILL HAVE ONLY 30 POPS WED NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS CAN TWEAK UP IF MOIST DEPTH INCREASES. THE GFS IS FASTER IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORECASTED HEIGHT FALLS/STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW AND NORTH AND PROMISES SEVERAL DAYS OF COOLER...DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. DEEP ONSHORE FLOW BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL PROABLY BRING RAINFALL TO THE COASTAL REGIONS SOUTH OF NC. THE GFS IS FORECASTING THE SFC HIGH TO BE STNRY OVER THE NE AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP ALONG THE COAST AND THIS SHOULD PROTECT NC FROM RAIN ALTHOUGH IT IS TRYING TO DEVELOP PCPN ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY. THE NAM AND GFS ARE ALSO INDICATING LOW PRES DEVELOPING IN VCNTY OF THE BAHAMAS BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW ATTM. && .AVIATION...IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE OCCURRING ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BEGIN TO LIFT. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LESS WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEEDS. && .MARINE...SOUTHEAST FLOW CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SPEEDS ARE 12 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AOB 4 FT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW FROM KATRINA SPREADS OVER THE REGION. GFS HAS THE BEST HANDLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THIS WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE. SCA IS POSTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE WINDS SOMEWHAT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS NOW BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FETCH SHOULD RESULT IN SEAS REACHING 6 FT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS SOUTH OF LOOKOUT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EXPANDING NORTHWARD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REMNANT LOW FROM KATRINA RACES NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SPEEDS DIMINISHING. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED WILL SEE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 12 KT OR LESS AND SEAS AOB 4 AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR AMZ158 FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM THURSDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR AMZ150-152-154-156 FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM THURSDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...ELARDO LONG TERM...ELARDO AVIATION...WINGENROTH MARINE...WINGENROTH 363 FXUS64 KHGX 300813 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 310 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM KATRINA EXTENDING WEST TOWARD TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. CWFA CONVECTION FREE WITH ONLY A FEW MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTH. DEWPOINTS HAS LOWERED TO NEAR 70 NORTHERN ZONES. PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING INLAND. GOES SOUNDER LOOP INDICATE PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES COASTAL REGION AND PROGRESSIVELY DRIER NORTHWARD. 200 MB LEVEL STILL INDICATE DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER REGION AND 500 MB TROUGH LINE JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SEABREEZE SETTING UP MID AFTERNOON TODAY AND STAYING MAINLY OVER COASTAL ZONES. WE SHALL INTRODUCE ISOLATED POPS COASTAL REGION ONLY FOR TODAY. PW VALUES WILL LOWER TO NEAR 1.3 INCHES TOMORROW AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.8 INCHES FRIDAY. PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH INDICATED TO BECOME WEAKER OVER REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD FROM SW CONUS. MODELS AGREE ON HAVING UPPER HIGH OVER REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF TEXAS INDICATED BY GFS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE AT LEAST FOR THE INLAND AREAS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING POPS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY (ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING EAST OF REGION) MOVING FROM THE NORTH. 37 && .MARINE... SEAS ARE NOW DOWN TO AROUND 2 FEET. EXPECT THESE HEIGHTS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WILL FORECAST WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS UNDER A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. WE COULD SEE SOME INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A LITTLE. 42 && .AVIATION... WILL KEEP AREA TAFS DRY TODAY DUE TO DECREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. COULD GET A WEAK SEABREEZE FRONT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS HAPPENS...WE MIGHT SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. WILL ATTEMPT TO SHOW THE SEABREEZE FRONT IN THIS AFTERNOON'S PORTION OF ALL BUT THE CLL TAF. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR PERHAPS CALM OVERNIGHT. 42 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 99 72 100 73 98 / 10 0 0 0 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 98 74 98 74 96 / 10 10 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 95 81 94 82 94 / 20 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ 411 FXUS61 KPHI 300813 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 415 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .OVERVIEW... OUR TIME OF RECKONING WITH THE RMNTS OF KATRINA IS ARRIVING AS WE WILL HAVE THE PTNL FOR HVY RAIN AND SVR WX BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE WED NGT. THE GFS RMNS THE MDL OF CHOICE AS IT RMNS CLOSE TO TPC/S FCST TRACK AND THE NAM HAS JUST NOT HANDLED THIS PAT WELL AT ALL. ITS 03Z FCSTD POSN OF KATRINA IS ALRDY 45 MILES TOO FAR TO THE SW AND THE LAG JUST CONTS FROM THERE. WE BLV THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HVYR RAIN WILL OCR THIS AFTN AND EVE AS DAYTIME HEATG COUPLED WITH WEAK WAA AND BANDS FOR KATRINA (MAYBE THIS FAR E) ASSIST IN THE HVY RAIN PROCESS. THE SVR PTNL LTR TDY MAY COME IN THE FORM OF ISOLD TORNADOES/SVR TSRA WITH THE GREATER THREAT SW OF OUR CWA. SVR/HVY RAIN PTNL WED IS OF THE MORE TYPICAL TYPE IF ONE CAN SAY THAT AS A CFP SWEEPS THE TROPICAL AIR MASS AWAY AND THE INCIPIENT WIND FIELD IS STGR THAN USUAL AND MORE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE. HVY RAIN PTNL OUTSIDE OF TRAINING S/B DIMINISHED AS CELLS S/B MOVG FASTER. WED LOOKS SIM TO SVR WX EVENTS THAT FOLLOWED THE PASSAGE OF A HURRICANE OR ITS RMNTS TO OUR W IN THE PAST NOTABLY THE AFTERMATH OF FRAN ON 9/8/1996 AND (THE SYNOPTIC PAT IS NOT THE SAME WITH THIS NEXT ONE SINCE IT HAD A STG NEG TILT TROF) ISABEL ON 9/23/2003. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... WE HAVE CHASING THE HVY RAIN PTNL WITH RESPECT TO THE TROP CONNECTION AND THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA AND IT APRS WE WILL CATCH UP WITH IT TDY. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FCSTG A RATHER BROAD AREA OF WEAK WAA THRUT THE DAYTIME HRS TDY WITH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO BE REACHED AND A DECENT SHRTWV MOVG THRU DURG THE AFTN. THE 00Z UA H8 ANLYSIS DID SHOW A 3C GRAD S OF OUR CWA AND WITH THIS JUICY AN AIR MASS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH. IF THERE IS A SAVING GRACE FOR TDY WITH RESPECT TO THE HVY RAIN...IT WILL BE THAT THE H2.5 JET IS FCST TO LIFT N INTO CANADA AND WITH IT THE GREATER THETA E ADVT/EVEN SOME FGEN FRCG INTENSIFIES N OF OUR CWA. WE HAVE BEEN FORTUNATE ALSO THAT THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH HVY RAIN AT ALL LEADING INTO TDY AND ALL OF OUR CWA/S CTY FFG IS ONCE AGAIN AOA 3"/HR. THUS SHRA/TSRA APPEAR LKLY WITH THE GREATEST POPS IN THE NRN PART OF OUR CWA WHERE THE WAA/FGEN FRCG INCREASES THE MOST. THE OTHER FACTOR FOR TDY IS THE SVR WX PTNL. THE GFS HAS BEEN PRETTY PERSISTENT IN INCRG HEL VALUES TWD EVE. THEIR 0-3KM HEL VALUES OF 120-280M2/S2 (E-W) HAVE NOT WAVERED MUCH AND THE LOWEST 0-1KM VALUES 75-170M2/S2 ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO CAUSE THE CUMULONIMBI AMONG OTHER ELEMENTS TO SPIN. THE LOW EXPECTED LCL IS ALSO DISCONCERTING. RADAR MET LAST EVE SAID THE SHRAS WERE ALRDY ROTATING. DILEMMA IS THAT THE HIEST HEL VALUES IN OUR CWA ARE WITH THE LEAST AMT OF FCSTD CAPE. THE GFS INCRS THE HEL VALUES BY DVLPG SFC TROFFING S OF US TDY AND ADVECTING IT NWD BY EVE. EVEN THE GFS HAS HAD ISSUES WITH THIS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH ITS PERSISTENCE. ANOTHER SAVING GRACE IS THAT ARE MANY MORE CLOUDS S OF US TDY THAN YDA AND MORE MID LVL CLDS WILL BE MOVG NEWD (TU RAY). SO THE SUN WHICH IS DEFINITELY NOT OUR FRIEND TDY MAY HAVE A HARDER TIME BREAKING OUT. THE LESS WE SEE OF IT...THE BETTER OFF WE WILL BE. WE WILL CONT THE SPS CONCERNING BOTH THE SVR AND HVY RAIN PTNL. DON/T WANT TO HIT THE TORNADO WORDING TOO HARD ATTM AS WE WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE AND THERE ARE SOME NEG FACTORS. WE WERE WARMER THAN THE GUID DATASETS YDA AND WITH AN ABT 90 PTNL IF TDY WAS TOTALLY SUNNY...WE WILL GO A BIT ABV MOS GUID. TRIGGERING MECH LIFTS NWD OVRNGT AND WOULD SUSPECT WE WILL HAVE GREATER PCPN CHCS IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE NGT THAN OVRNGT. THE SVR WX THREAT OVRNGT TO OUR S DIMINISHED AND WITH ANOTHER DAY REMOVED FROM THE GULF WOULD THINK (HOPE) SO SHLD OURS. MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG REASON AS AXIS OF MAX HEL DOES LIFT INTO NY STA OVRNGT. STILL DON/T SEE THOSE DEWPTS GFS MOS IS FCSTG AND WILL LEAN TWD THE NAM DEWS WHICH LOOK MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF UPSTREAM CONDS. ON WED...ONE COULD NOT ASK FOR A MUCH BETTER FCSTD COUPLET FOR SVR WX AS CWA WILL BE ON W SIDE OF A STG FOR AUG LLJ AND EXIT RGN OF H2.5 JET ARRIVES DURG THE LATE AFTN/EVE. LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE THAT IT IS PRETTY WARM ALF AND SO FAR THE GFS IS FCSTG RATHER MEAGER INSTABILITY WITH ONLY ABT 500J AND BALMY 4.5C/KM MID LVL LAPSE RATES. GFS STILL FCSTG 0-3KM HEL VALUES OF 150-200M2/S2. THIS MIGHT BE OVERDONE...BUT BLV THE LLVL INSTAB IS UNDERDONE AS WITH ANY SUN LO 90S ARE DOABLE. SO AGREE WITH SPC/S ASSESSMENT TO PLACE US IN SLGT RISK FOR TMRW. ON A CLIMAT NOTE WE HAVE BEEN HIT PRETTY HARD ON DAYS WITH CFPS FLWG THE WWD PASSAGE OF A TROP SYS. MAYBE I DON/T REMEMBER THE ONES THAT DID NOT GO THAT WAY...BUT THE ONES THAT DID WERE TWO NASTY DAYS. FOR NOW WE WILL CARRY SOME ENHANCED...BUT NOT SVR WORDING. WE WILL TALK ABT THE SVR PTNL IN THE SPS/HWO. WOULD THINK HVY RAIN PTNL WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE FASTER FLOW ALF. WE WILL HAVE TO REACCESS THIS IF PCPN BCMS HVYR THAN EXPECTED TDY/TNGT AND DROP FFG VALUES. LASTLY MAX TEMP/DEWPTS MIGHT BRING HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO HEAT ADVY CRIT FOR OUR URBANIZED LOCNS. AM NOT GOING TO BOX LATER SHIFTS IN WITH THIS AS IT IS BORDERLINE AND AT THE END OF A LONG HOT SUMMER. LOOKS LIKE A ONE DAY EVENT ALSO. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE...BUT WILL SEGMENT SPS TO MAKE MNTN OF THE PSBLTY IN URBAN ZONES. FASTER GFS SOLN WILL MERCIFULLY BRING A QUICKER END TO THIS WED NGT AND WILL END ALL PCPN BY THU MRNG. && .LONG TERM (THU THROUGH MON)... CDFNT MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN ON NW WINDS. A SECOND DRY FRONT SWINGS THROUGH BY SUNDAY. WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE REFRESHING. && .AVIATION... MAINLY IFR AT THIS HOUR DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. THIS SHOULD CARRY US THROUGH DAYBREAK. VSBY'S ARE UP COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME WITH ALL TERMINALS POSTING 10'S. THE EXPECTATION FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON IS PREVAILING VFR EVERYWHERE, BUT PLAN ON SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS. && .MARINE... NO REAL CHANGE IN THINKING WITH THIS PACKAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF EX-KATRINA AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND HIGH. WW LOOKS GOOD WITH 6 FOOT NEARSHORE SEAS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE FOR SCA CONDITIONS STARTING TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER FROPA LATE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. && .TIDES... EVEN AS WE APPROACH A NEW MOON, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY TIDAL FLOODING IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES FORECAST TO REACH 1/2 TO AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR US TO RUN INTO ANY PROBLEMS, WE'LL NEED AT LEAST +1 1/2 FOOT DEPARTURES. $$ .HYDROLOGY... FFG HAS NUDGED UPWD AGN AS ALL COUNTIES ARE AOA 3"/HR. HVYST PCPN PTNL FROM KATRINA SHLD OCR TUE/TUE NGT AS HER MOISTURE GETS INGESTED INTO THE BROAD SWRLY FLOW. WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2"...AT LEAST LOCALIZED AMTS TO 4" RMN WITHIN THE REALM OF PTNL. GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN OF LATE IF ANY FLDG DOES IT OCR...IT WOULD BE MORE OF A SMALLER STREAM CONCERN AND NOT A MAIN STEM ONE. THE EMPHASIS FOR HVYR PCN WITH THE LATEST MDL RUNS RMNS CLSR TO THE JET OVR CANADA AND NEW ENG AND THUS OVR OUR NRN ZONES. && .MISCELLANEOUS... WAY BACK WHEN ANALUGS ARE US COMPARED THE APR/MAY 2005 TEMP COUPLET AND SAW HOW THE ENSUING SUMMERS WERE. WELL THIS BUSTED BIG TIME AS THIS SUMMER WILL END (IN PHL) IN THE TOP 10 WARMEST AND MUCH WARMER THAN ANY OF THE PREV ANALOG YEARS. WE/LL PBLY GET MORE MID SHIFTS BECAUSE OF THIS AND WE WON/T QUIT OUR DAY JOB IF WE HAD ONE. THIS IS FOR PHL INTL. YEAR JUN JUL AUG AVG TEMP TOTAL PCPN 1878 67.4 77.6 73.9 73.0 11.84 1891 71.8 71.9 74.3 72.7 11.38 1915 69.6 76.0 73.1 72.9 15.31 1925 78.0 76.2 74.8 76.3 8.16 1938 71.3 77.2 78.4 75.6 20.68 1945 71.5 76.0 74.1 73.9 16.38 1952 74.7 80.1 75.2 76.7 11.95 1954 72.9 77.9 73.5 74.8 8.69 1958 67.8 77.4 73.4 72.9 17.31 1960 70.6 73.3 74.5 72.8 9.42 1968 71.2 77.1 77.8 75.4 9.13 AVG 71.5 76.4 74.8 74.2 12.75 SUM 2005 SO FAR 74.8 78.9 79.6 77.8 10.16 THRU 8/28 1971-2000 NML 72.3 77.6 76.3 75.4 12.03 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. $$ OVERVIEW/SHORT TERM...GIGI LONG TERM...EBERWINE AVIATION/MARINE/TIDES...KRUZDLO HYDROLOGY...GIGI 925 FXUS63 KLSX 300814 CCA AFDLSX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 315 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN QUESTION THIS MORNING IS IF CWA WILL SEE ANY RAIN FROM TROPICAL STORM KATRINA. 00Z RUN OF THE GFS HAD THE BEST INITIALIZATION... PARTICULARLY WITH KATRINA COMPARED TO THE NAM. THIS MAY EXPLAIN WHY THE 00Z RUN OF THE NAM WAS MUCH SLOWER IN MOVING THE SFC LOW NEWD COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS AND EVEN IT'S NEW 06Z RUN. WILL GO WITH THE GFS WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST TRACK PUT OUT BY TPC/NHC AT 03Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE KATRINA'S PCPN SHEILD IS ALMOST TO THE SERN BORDER OF THE CWA AT 08Z. GIVEN THAT KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO RACE NEWD THIS MORNING...THINK THAT ONLY THE FIRST TWO TIER OF COUNTIES WILL SEE RAIN...SO HAVE A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN LIKELY POPS AND NIL OVER THE SERN HALF THE CWA THIS MORNING. WILL THEN BACK OFF TO JUST CHC POPS EXCEPT IN THE FAR ERN COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTN. GFS IS A BIT WEAK WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT 06Z OVER MO/IL...SO THINK WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE HAS. SUBSIDENCE SETS IN TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF KATRINA AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SWRN CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD NEWD. NAM/GFS AGREE WITH BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...THOUGHT LACK OF MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT FORCING PRECLUDE INTRODUCING CHC POPS AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY FAVORED THE GFS MOS TEMP GUIDANCE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP THE SERN COUNTIES IN THE 70S TODAY. NAM TEMPS LOOK A BIT COOL FOR THURSDAY GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ BRITT 094 FXUS63 KLSX 300814 AFDLSX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 315 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN QUESTION THIS MORNING IS IF CWA WILL SEE ANY RAIN FROM TROPICAL STORM KATRINA. 00Z RUN OF THE GFS HAD THE BEST INITIALIZATION... PARTICULARLY WITH KATRINA COMPARED TO THE NAM. THIS MAY EXPLAIN WHY THE 00Z RUN OF THE NAM WAS MUCH SLOWER IN MOVING THE SFC LOW NEWD COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS AND EVEN IT'S NEW 06Z RUN. WILL GO WITH THE GFS WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST TRACK PUT OUT BY TPC/NHC AT 03Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE KATRINA'S PCPN SHEILD IS ALMOST TO THE SERN BORDER OF THE CWA AT 08Z. GIVEN THAT KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO RACE NEWD THIS MORNING...THINK THAT ONLY THE FIRST TWO TIER OF COUNTIES WILL SEE RAIN...SO HAVE A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN LIKELY POPS AND NIL OVER THE SERN HALF THE CWA THIS MORNING. WILL THEN BACK OFF TO JUST CHC POPS EXCEPT IN THE FAR ERN COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTN. GFS IS A BIT WEAK WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT 06Z OVER MO/IL...SO THINK WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE HAS. SUBSIDENCE SETS IN TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF KATRINA AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SWRN CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD NEWD. NAM/GFS AGREE WITH BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...THOUGHT LACK OF MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT FORCING PRECLUDE INTRODUCING CHC POPS AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY FAVORED THE GFS MOS TEMP GUIDANCE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP THE SERN COUNTIES IN THE 70S TODAY. NAM TEMPS LOOK A BIT COOL FOR THURSDAY GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ BRITT 825 FXUS64 KEPZ 300816 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 230 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION YESTERDAY AND KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE BORDERLAND YESTERDAY. TODAY THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL MEAN A NOTICEABLE WARMUP AND CONTINUED DRYING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS WILL DOMINATE THE LOWLANDS WITH NO STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS EXISTS. BY FRIDAY...MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL BRING DAILY STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE BORDERLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... TUESDAY ON THROUGH THURSDAY...THE RIDGE OUT WEST IS CENTERED OVER YUMA, AZ AND NOSING NW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. TODAY THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE AREA. LEE TROUGHING WILL TURN SURFACE WINDS TO THE WEST. THE NORTH FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE DRYOUT OF OUR AIRMASS. MOST AREAS WILL STAY MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH ALMOST NO CHANCE OF STORM ACTIVITY. I'VE REMOVED ALL POPS TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SACS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IT WILL TRACK SOUTH OVER THE SACS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THEM AT BEST. WED ALL POPS ARE OUT AS THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY SNUFF OUT ANY STORM CHANCES...EVEN OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS. TEMPS ARE GETTING WARMER AND THIS SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. LOWLANDS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMALS AND NEAR 100 DEGREES. THURSDAY WE COULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE SEEP BACK IN UNDER THE HIGH TO GET SOME BETTER CUMULUS IN THE AREA MOUNTAINS. I'VE RE-INTRODUCED SOME WEAK POPS...BUT CHANCES ARE MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY. THE GFS NOW TRIES TO KEEP THE HIGH OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP STORM CHANCES LOW...BUT AGAIN JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY BE TRAPPED IN THE DIRTY-ING HIGH TO WARRANT MINIMAL POPS. NEXT WEEKEND...THE RIDGE MAKES A MOVE BACK EAST. A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS WILL REINTRODUCE THE REGION TO BETTER MOISTURE AND THUS A RETURN OF POPS FOR ALL ZONES. AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE GFS FOR SUNDAY COULD RAMP UP STORM CHANCES AND STORM STRENGTHS...WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH THAT FEATURE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 97 70 100 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 SIERRA BLANCA TX 94 65 99 64 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 LAS CRUCES 97 67 100 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 ALAMOGORDO 96 67 96 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLOUDCROFT 75 48 79 49 77 / 10 0 10 10 10 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 97 66 99 66 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 SILVER CITY 90 61 96 63 94 / 0 0 10 10 10 DEMING 98 65 99 67 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 LORDSBURG 98 64 99 67 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NM, TX...NONE. && $$ 14 / BIRD 739 FXUS63 KDLH 300817 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 317 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE LOW AND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAD BEEN SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THAT WAS THE CORRECT SOLUTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHLAND TODAY...WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS WERE COVERING NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING...AND WE SHOULD SEE A CUMULUS DECK FORM ONCE AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER...WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD MEAN CUMULUS DECK WON'T BE AS THICK AS ON MONDAY. TONIGHT...WE WILL BE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...AND THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE LIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CAUSE FOG TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONG ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO 18C TO 20C JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND DROPPING TO 8C BEHIND IT. WE DON'T HAVE MUCH TIME FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN...AS SURFACE FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE HIGH. BEST 0-6KM SHEAR ALSO LAGS THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...DEWPOINTS WILL STILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO VARY GREATLY. WE USED A BLEND. && .AVIATION...FOR THE MORNING HOURS...MVFR CIGS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DISSIPATE. IFR VSBYS DUE TO PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DISSIPATE AFTER THE SUN COMES OUT. DURING THE DAY...SCT VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDER CUMULIFORM CLOUD COVER. TONIGHT WILL SEE SOME IFR CIGS AND DENSE FOG DEVELOP NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. ELSEWHERE PATCHY IFR VSBY DUE TO FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. $$ MELDE/KFM 025 FXUS61 KPHI 300818 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 415 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .OVERVIEW... OUR TIME OF RECKONING WITH THE RMNTS OF KATRINA IS ARRIVING AS WE WILL HAVE THE PTNL FOR HVY RAIN AND SVR WX BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE WED NGT. THE GFS RMNS THE MDL OF CHOICE AS IT RMNS CLOSE TO TPC/S FCST TRACK AND THE NAM HAS JUST NOT HANDLED THIS PAT WELL AT ALL. ITS 03Z FCSTD POSN OF KATRINA IS ALRDY 45 MILES TOO FAR TO THE SW AND THE LAG JUST CONTS FROM THERE. WE BLV THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HVYR RAIN WILL OCR THIS AFTN AND EVE AS DAYTIME HEATG COUPLED WITH WEAK WAA AND BANDS FOR KATRINA (MAYBE THIS FAR E) ASSIST IN THE HVY RAIN PROCESS. THE SVR PTNL LTR TDY MAY COME IN THE FORM OF ISOLD TORNADOES/SVR TSRA WITH THE GREATER THREAT SW OF OUR CWA. SVR/HVY RAIN PTNL WED IS OF THE MORE TYPICAL TYPE IF ONE CAN SAY THAT AS A CFP SWEEPS THE TROPICAL AIR MASS AWAY AND THE INCIPIENT WIND FIELD IS STGR THAN USUAL AND MORE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE. HVY RAIN PTNL OUTSIDE OF TRAINING S/B DIMINISHED AS CELLS S/B MOVG FASTER. WED LOOKS SIM TO SVR WX EVENTS THAT FOLLOWED THE PASSAGE OF A HURRICANE OR ITS RMNTS TO OUR W IN THE PAST NOTABLY THE AFTERMATH OF FRAN ON 9/8/1996 AND (THE SYNOPTIC PAT IS NOT THE SAME WITH THIS NEXT ONE SINCE IT HAD A STG NEG TILT TROF) ISABEL ON 9/23/2003. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... WE HAVE CHASING THE HVY RAIN PTNL WITH RESPECT TO THE TROP CONNECTION AND THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA AND IT APRS WE WILL CATCH UP WITH IT TDY. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FCSTG A RATHER BROAD AREA OF WEAK WAA THRUT THE DAYTIME HRS TDY WITH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO BE REACHED AND A DECENT SHRTWV MOVG THRU DURG THE AFTN. THE 00Z UA H8 ANLYSIS DID SHOW A 3C GRAD S OF OUR CWA AND WITH THIS JUICY AN AIR MASS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH. IF THERE IS A SAVING GRACE FOR TDY WITH RESPECT TO THE HVY RAIN...IT WILL BE THAT THE H2.5 JET IS FCST TO LIFT N INTO CANADA AND WITH IT THE GREATER THETA E ADVT/EVEN SOME FGEN FRCG INTENSIFIES N OF OUR CWA. WE HAVE BEEN FORTUNATE ALSO THAT THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH HVY RAIN AT ALL LEADING INTO TDY AND ALL OF OUR CWA/S CTY FFG IS ONCE AGAIN AOA 3"/HR. THUS SHRA/TSRA APPEAR LKLY WITH THE GREATEST POPS IN THE NRN PART OF OUR CWA WHERE THE WAA/FGEN FRCG INCREASES THE MOST. THE OTHER FACTOR FOR TDY IS THE SVR WX PTNL. THE GFS HAS BEEN PRETTY PERSISTENT IN INCRG HEL VALUES TWD EVE. THEIR 0-3KM HEL VALUES OF 120-280M2/S2 (E-W) HAVE NOT WAVERED MUCH AND THE LOWEST 0-1KM VALUES 75-170M2/S2 ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO CAUSE THE CUMULONIMBI AMONG OTHER ELEMENTS TO SPIN. THE LOW EXPECTED LCL IS ALSO DISCONCERTING. RADAR MET LAST EVE SAID THE SHRAS WERE ALRDY ROTATING. DILEMMA IS THAT THE HIEST HEL VALUES IN OUR CWA ARE WITH THE LEAST AMT OF FCSTD CAPE. THE GFS INCRS THE HEL VALUES BY DVLPG SFC TROFFING S OF US TDY AND ADVECTING IT NWD BY EVE. EVEN THE GFS HAS HAD ISSUES WITH THIS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH ITS PERSISTENCE. ANOTHER SAVING GRACE IS THAT ARE MANY MORE CLOUDS S OF US TDY THAN YDA AND MORE MID LVL CLDS WILL BE MOVG NEWD (TU RAY). SO THE SUN WHICH IS DEFINITELY NOT OUR FRIEND TDY MAY HAVE A HARDER TIME BREAKING OUT. THE LESS WE SEE OF IT...THE BETTER OFF WE WILL BE. WE WILL CONT THE SPS CONCERNING BOTH THE SVR AND HVY RAIN PTNL. DON/T WANT TO HIT THE TORNADO WORDING TOO HARD ATTM AS WE WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE AND THERE ARE SOME NEG FACTORS. WE WERE WARMER THAN THE GUID DATASETS YDA AND WITH AN ABT 90 PTNL IF TDY WAS TOTALLY SUNNY...WE WILL GO A BIT ABV MOS GUID. TRIGGERING MECH LIFTS NWD OVRNGT AND WOULD SUSPECT WE WILL HAVE GREATER PCPN CHCS IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE NGT THAN OVRNGT. THE SVR WX THREAT OVRNGT TO OUR S DIMINISHED AND WITH ANOTHER DAY REMOVED FROM THE GULF WOULD THINK (HOPE) SO SHLD OURS. MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG REASON AS AXIS OF MAX HEL DOES LIFT INTO NY STA OVRNGT. STILL DON/T SEE THOSE DEWPTS GFS MOS IS FCSTG AND WILL LEAN TWD THE NAM DEWS WHICH LOOK MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF UPSTREAM CONDS. ON WED...ONE COULD NOT ASK FOR A MUCH BETTER FCSTD COUPLET FOR SVR WX AS CWA WILL BE ON W SIDE OF A STG FOR AUG LLJ AND EXIT RGN OF H2.5 JET ARRIVES DURG THE LATE AFTN/EVE. LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE THAT IT IS PRETTY WARM ALF AND SO FAR THE GFS IS FCSTG RATHER MEAGER INSTABILITY WITH ONLY ABT 500J AND BALMY 4.5C/KM MID LVL LAPSE RATES. GFS STILL FCSTG 0-3KM HEL VALUES OF 150-200M2/S2. THIS MIGHT BE OVERDONE...BUT BLV THE LLVL INSTAB IS UNDERDONE AS WITH ANY SUN LO 90S ARE DOABLE. SO AGREE WITH SPC/S ASSESSMENT TO PLACE US IN SLGT RISK FOR TMRW. ON A CLIMAT NOTE WE HAVE BEEN HIT PRETTY HARD ON DAYS WITH CFPS FLWG THE WWD PASSAGE OF A TROP SYS. MAYBE I DON/T REMEMBER THE ONES THAT DID NOT GO THAT WAY...BUT THE ONES THAT DID WERE TWO NASTY DAYS. FOR NOW WE WILL CARRY SOME ENHANCED...BUT NOT SVR WORDING. WE WILL TALK ABT THE SVR PTNL IN THE SPS/HWO. WOULD THINK HVY RAIN PTNL WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE FASTER FLOW ALF. WE WILL HAVE TO REACCESS THIS IF PCPN BCMS HVYR THAN EXPECTED TDY/TNGT AND DROP FFG VALUES. LASTLY MAX TEMP/DEWPTS MIGHT BRING HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO HEAT ADVY CRIT FOR OUR URBANIZED LOCNS. AM NOT GOING TO BOX LATER SHIFTS IN WITH THIS AS IT IS BORDERLINE AND AT THE END OF A LONG HOT SUMMER. LOOKS LIKE A ONE DAY EVENT ALSO. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE...BUT WILL SEGMENT SPS TO MAKE MNTN OF THE PSBLTY IN URBAN ZONES. FASTER GFS SOLN WILL MERCIFULLY BRING A QUICKER END TO THIS WED NGT AND WILL END ALL PCPN BY THU MRNG. && .LONG TERM (THU THROUGH MON)... CDFNT MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN ON NW WINDS. A SECOND DRY FRONT SWINGS THROUGH BY SUNDAY. WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE REFRESHING. && .AVIATION... MAINLY IFR AT THIS HOUR DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. THIS SHOULD CARRY US THROUGH DAYBREAK. VSBY'S ARE UP COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME WITH ALL TERMINALS POSTING 10'S. THE EXPECTATION FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON IS PREVAILING VFR EVERYWHERE, BUT PLAN ON SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS. && .MARINE... NO REAL CHANGE IN THINKING WITH THIS PACKAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF EX-KATRINA AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND HIGH. WW LOOKS GOOD WITH 6 FOOT NEARSHORE SEAS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE FOR SCA CONDITIONS STARTING TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER FROPA LATE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. && .TIDES... EVEN AS WE APPROACH A NEW MOON, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY TIDAL FLOODING IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES FORECAST TO REACH 1/2 TO AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR US TO RUN INTO ANY PROBLEMS, WE'LL NEED AT LEAST +1 1/2 FOOT DEPARTURES. $$ .HYDROLOGY... FFG HAS NUDGED UPWD AGN AS ALL COUNTIES ARE AOA 3"/HR. HVYST PCPN PTNL FROM KATRINA SHLD OCR TUE/TUE NGT AS HER MOISTURE GETS INGESTED INTO THE BROAD SWRLY FLOW. WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2"...AT LEAST LOCALIZED AMTS TO 4" RMN WITHIN THE REALM OF PTNL. GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN OF LATE IF ANY FLDG DOES IT OCR...IT WOULD BE MORE OF A SMALLER STREAM CONCERN AND NOT A MAIN STEM ONE. THE EMPHASIS FOR HVYR PCN WITH THE LATEST MDL RUNS RMNS CLSR TO THE JET OVR CANADA AND NEW ENG AND THUS OVR OUR NRN ZONES. && .MISCELLANEOUS... WAY BACK WHEN ANALUGS ARE US COMPARED THE APR/MAY 2005 TEMP COUPLET AND SAW HOW THE ENSUING SUMMERS WERE. WELL THIS BUSTED BIG TIME AS THIS SUMMER WILL END (IN PHL) IN THE TOP 10 WARMEST AND MUCH WARMER THAN ANY OF THE PREV ANALOG YEARS. WE/LL PBLY GET MORE MID SHIFTS BECAUSE OF THIS AND WE WON/T QUIT OUR DAY JOB IF WE HAD ONE. THIS IS FOR PHL INTL. YEAR JUN JUL AUG AVG TEMP TOTAL PCPN 1878 67.4 77.6 73.9 73.0 11.84 1891 71.8 71.9 74.3 72.7 11.38 1915 69.6 76.0 73.1 72.9 15.31 1925 78.0 76.2 74.8 76.3 8.16 1938 71.3 77.2 78.4 75.6 20.68 1945 71.5 76.0 74.1 73.9 16.38 1952 74.7 80.1 75.2 76.7 11.95 1954 72.9 77.9 73.5 74.8 8.69 1958 67.8 77.4 73.4 72.9 17.31 1960 70.6 73.3 74.5 72.8 9.42 1968 71.2 77.1 77.8 75.4 9.13 AVG 71.5 76.4 74.8 74.2 12.75 SUM 2005 SO FAR 74.8 78.9 79.6 77.8 10.16 THRU 8/28 1971-2000 NML 72.3 77.6 76.3 75.4 12.03 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. $$ OVERVIEW/SHORT TERM...GIGI LONG TERM...EBERWINE AVIATION/MARINE/TIDES...KRUZDLO HYDROLOGY/MISCELLANEOUS...GIGI 410 FXUS63 KDDC 300821 AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 325 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... PER THE DIAGNOSTICS, MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH PACIFIC SYSTEM SCHEDULED TO DRIVE POLAR FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODE RUNS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE POLAR FRONT AND THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT OVER AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. INITIAL THOUGHT WAS TO REMOVE ALL PRECIPITATION AND GO FOR A BASICALLY DRY FROPA BUT WIL TEMPER THAT A BIT JUST IN CASE FRONT IS ABLE TO LIFT SOME OF THE CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR AVAILABLE OVER THE CWA. OTHERWISE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS EXCEPT TO LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AS BELIEVE MODELS ARE TOO WARM IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. DAYS 3-7... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE IN LATER PERIOD GRIDS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 94 64 79 58 / 0 0 10 0 GCK 96 61 78 56 / 0 10 10 0 EHA 93 61 78 56 / 0 10 10 0 LBL 94 62 80 57 / 0 0 10 0 HYS 94 62 76 59 / 0 10 0 0 P28 92 65 84 64 / 0 0 10 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ JOHNSON/UMSCHEID 230 FXUS61 KPBZ 300822 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 422 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... BASED ON RECENT GFS AND RUC MODEL RUNS AND HPC TPC AND SPC GUIDANCE...HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO WESTERN PA COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REGARDING FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU NOON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE TRACK OF KATRINA GOING THRU OHIO AND NW PA...CONCUR WITH HPC THINKING OF THERE BEING GENERALLY 2 INCH RAIN TOTALS WITH SPOTTY AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES. WITH SOIL CONDITIONS SUCH THAT 3-6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS ON THE ORDER OF 2.5-3.0 INCHES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WARRANTED. REGARDING WIND ADVISORY...WITH TIGHT ISOBARIC GRADIENT AHEAD OF KATRINA CENTER INDUCING SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND THE TIMING OF THIS ONSET THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GREATER DIURNAL MIXING POSSIBLE...CAN FORESEE WIND GUSTS OVER 40- 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN LOCATIONS JUST WEST/DOWNWIND OF THE APPALACHIAN RIDGES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AS EVIDENCED BY GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND DISCUSSED BY SPC. TO FULLY REALIZE THIS SHEAR HOWEVER...SOME SUNSHINE MAY BE NEEDED TO PROMOTE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO BE ISSUED BY 530 AM. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... ONCE KATRINA CIRCULATION EXIT THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS RECENT GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN. && .AVIATION... FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST EARLY THIS MRNG WITH PLENTIFUL LLVL MSTR UNDR MID LVL SHRTWV RIDGE...WHICH IS IN WAKE OF IMPULSE WHICH SPPRTED THE MON RA. KATRINA WAS APPRCHG THE SRN TN BRDR AS OF 06Z...AND WL CONT TO ADVN TO THE NNE/NE...SPREADING RA AND CONTINUED IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. SFC WND WL CONT TO INCRS WITH INITIAL GUSTS NR 30 KTS BY THIS AFTN. PROG OF DP LYR WND SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE...AND EXPECT LLVL WND SHEAR TO ALSO INCRS THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALNG TRACK OF LOW. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MDZ001 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR MDZ001 FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069 FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY. PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029>032 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029>032 FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY. WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041 FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY. && $$ 061 FXUS63 KEAX 300823 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 320 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... TROPICAL STORM KATRINA HAS ACCELERATED DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS AND PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGE IS CROSSING THE ALABAMA TENNESSEE BORDER. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER'S FORECAST TRACK FOR KATRINA IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSIVE GFS. THE 00Z NAM IS SLOWER AND HAS BEEN DISREGARDED. KATRINA WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH CARVES ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY, AND ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS, THE FRONT WILL BE IN NORTHERN MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, BUT MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. 850MB WIND TRAJECTORIES IN NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH CONTRIBUTING TO THE RELATIVELY SCANT MOISTURE SUPPLY. SOME MOISTURE IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THIS MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY PRESENT IN A NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER 850MB DEWPOINTS EXTENDING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, BUT EVEN WITH THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE FEED PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE 20 PERCENT OR LESS. A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY'S SYSTEM. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY TIME FRAME. UNTIL THEN, DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. KOCH && .PREV DISCUSSION... ACTIVE WEATHER OF INTEREST REMAINS TO OUR SOUTHEAST AS HURRICANE KATRINA HAS MADE LANDFALL TODAY. OVER THIS FORECAST AREA...MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND THE NORTHWEST TWO/THIRDS OF MISSOURI AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND A WEAK SURFACE WIND FIELD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL NICELY AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THE 60S...AND THEN REBOUND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A LEE SIDE TROUGH THEN DEVELOPS LATE TOMORROW...WITH THE MODELS STILL TRYING TO BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MID TO LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING BUT NOT ANY MORE CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE WITH BETTER MOISTURE KEPT WRAPPED UP WITH KATRINA...AND WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AND TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION BEING ABLE TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES REMAIN HARD TO TIME FOR PINPOINTING MOST FAVORABLE CHANCES. STOFLET && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. $$ WFO EAX 838 FXUS63 KGID 300824 AFDGID AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 324 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP THE SKIES CLEAR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH IN THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GREATEST CAPE WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE SHEAR IS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE WEATHER TO A MINIMUM...BUT IT IS HARD TO RULE OUT SOMETHING ISOLATED. ONCE THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST...THEN THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA SHOULD HAVE COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. BEYOND THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES RIDING ACROSS THE RIDGE. MADE NO CHANGES TO THE OUTER PERIODS. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ JCB 170 FXUS63 KJKL 300826 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 425 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... CENTER OF KATRINA CONTINUES TO PICK UP SPEED AND TURN MORE TOWARD THE EAST. GFS...WHILE IT HAS HAD THE BEST OVERALL HANDLE ON THE STORM...IS RUNNING A BIT SLOW AND TO THE WEST AT INITIALIZATION. CURRENT MOSAIC SHOWS CONSISTENT BANDS OF MOISTURE NOW BEGINNING TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...OTHERWISE...DOWNSLOPING HAS MITIGATED A LOT OF THE PRECURSOR BANDS FROM KATRINA. LATEST GUIDANCE AND CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA HAS HIGHER FLOOD THREAT TODAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WATCH...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE A BIT LOWER OVERALL WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT...SO WILL FRESHEN UP SOME OF THE CURRENT WORDING...WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. KATRINA HAS BEEN ABLE TO HANG ONTO HER TIGHT GRADIENT A BIT LONGER...AND WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS NEAR OUR LAKE WIND CRITERIA...SO HAVE KEPT THIS GOING AS WELL. SPC HAS CONCENTRATED THE GREATER TORNADO THREAT EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FOR TODAY. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE DOWNSLOPING HURT ORGANIZED CELL FORMATION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPS...HOWEVER WITH SO MUCH SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A FEW SPIN-UPS IN THE HWO. LATEST GFS MOS SHOWS THE FASTER EXIT OF KATRINA...AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO ARGUE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...INITIALIZATION STARTED OUT A BIT SLOW...SO HAVE KILLED THE PRECIP PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ONLY HANGING ONTO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM. FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE EXPIRED BEFORE 6 AM WEDNESDAY...BUT DEPENDING ON WHAT MATERIALIZES TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...WOULD RATHER CONTINUE IT LATER IN CASE THERE ARE ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS THAT LAST BEYOND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES BEYOND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST INTACT...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 1025 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005 02Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA NOW MOVING INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE HEAVIER RAIN AND HIGHER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NOW EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN TENNESSEE. CLOSER TO EAST KENTUCKY...THE FIRST RAIN BAND FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS CROSSED INTO THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND IS WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PINWHEEL NORTH. TO THE NORTH OF THIS...LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING THROUGH NORTH ALONG INTERSTATE 64. AREAS OF FOG ARE INTERMINGLED WITH THE SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS ARE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 70. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES THIS WAY. THE HEAVIER RAINS OF KATRINA WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT WITH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SEEING MORE THAN THE EAST DUE TO THE STORM TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A BIT FURTHER EAST DUE TO KATRINA/S CURRENT MOVEMENT...AND ALSO SOME DOWNSLOPING SETTING UP IN THE EAST. THIS ALL CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE GRIDS...TEXT PRODUCTS AND THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST THOUGHTS ON KATRINA...BUT THE BULK OF TEXT ZONES WILL BE THE SAME WITH THE MIDNIGHT WORDING TAKEN OUT AND NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES WORDING ADDED. 524 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LARGE BAND OF PRECIP ALONG A DEFORMATION ZONE LYING ACROSS KY IS BEGINNING TO LOSE ITS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SUPPORT...AND SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DIE OFF AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS BAND HAS PRIMED THE SOILS NICELY ACROSS MUCH OF KENTUCKY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF FLOODING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BUT NOW KATRINA IS TAKING AIM AT THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. OMINOUS BANDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS GA AND AL...MOVING NORTHWARD AT A FAST PACE. KATRINA WILL PUT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 65 AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDORS AT HIGHEST RISK FOR FLOODING. TO ADD INSULT TO INJURY...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW. FOR NOW SPC HAS PLACED OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT...25 PERCENT RISK CATEGORY. HOWEVER...SPC STATEMENTS HAVE INDICATED THAT THE AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK CATEGORY AS WELL. AFTER MUCH DISCUSSION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...DECIDED TO GO WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW. WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL ABOVE HURRICANE LEVELS INTO CENTRAL MS THIS EVENING. SO IT APPEARS THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR TOMORROW. WINDS ON FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN COMING UP. IN THE END...DECIDED TO GO ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND ISSUE THE ADVISORY. EXPECT THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE REALIZED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN MOST ZONES...AND AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOS POPS WERE PRETTY MUCH CAT LEVELS ACROSS THE BOARD. SO CAT POPS WERE ON ORDER...LEAVING THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. USED HPC QPF FIELDS FOR THE SHORT TERM. FOR TEMPS...MOS CAME BACK IN COOLER FOR TOMORROWS HIGH TEMPS...PARTICULARLY THE FWC AND MAV MOS. MET MOS REMAINED UNCHANGED. BUT THE NAM LOOKS WAY TOO SLOW WITH KATRINA/S MOVEMENT AND HAS NOT HANDLED HER WELL AT ALL. DECIDED TO TAKE TEMPS BACK DOWN IN THE WEST...BUT LEFT WARMER TEMPS IN THE EAST PER PREVIOUS SHIFTS LEAD AS DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP WITH WARMER TEMPS THERE. PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS THERE WAS GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE NUMBERS. EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KY THROUGH MONDAY...KEEPING THE REGION MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER...TREND OF THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER PATTERN AND NOW CUTS OFF AN UPPER LOW FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY SOUTH OF KY. FOR THE FORECAST GENERALLY USED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THIS SOLUTION AND THE CANADIAN MODEL WHICH IS LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP EXTENDED FORECAST DRY WITH LOW LEVEL E/NE WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND STAY CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE TEMPS. 1112 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005 QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING...MAINLY FOR CAT POPS IN THE NORTH AND WEST. BAND OF PRECIP HAS LED TO RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS. AN INVERTED TROUGH...ALONG WITH AREAS OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE EFFECTS OF KATRINA ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS BAND. RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH AS TWO INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN REPORTED. HAD TO ISSUE URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUE GRASS. A SECOND AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF KATRINA MOVING NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT MOST EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME FORM OF PRECIP. THE QUESTION WAS HOW FAR EAST WILL THIS BAND AFFECT OUR CWA. FOR NOW KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST. HOURLY TEMPS ARE RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREE BEHIND...BUT SATELLITE SEEMS TO INDICATE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH. CONSEQUENTLY DECIDED TO LEAVE TEMPS ALONE FOR NOW. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR... FLEMING...BATH...MONTGOMERY...ROWAN...MENIFEE...MORGAN...ELLIOTT... POWELL...WOLFE...ESTILL...LEE...OWSLEY...JACKSON...ROCKCASTLE...LAURE L L...PULASKI...WAYNE...MCCREARY...AND WHITLEY COUNTIES. LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. && $$ GEOGERIAN 641 FXUS61 KRLX 300826 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 345 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (THROUGH TODAY)... TS KATRINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT EXTENDS WELL INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. IT IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATED THE CENTER OF KATRINA BECAUSE LOOKING AT THE SATELLITE DATA...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION IS JUST EAST OF THE INTERSECTION POINT OF TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER...AS OF 3 AM IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS THE CENTER WOULD BE JUST WEST OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI...WELL DISPLACED FROM THE UPPER CIRCULATION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE INITIALIZED THE CENTER KATRINA TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AND THROUGH TIME ARE JUST TOO SLOW IN MOVING HER NORTHEASTWARD. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT KATRINA WILL TRACK THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TENNESSEE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY TODAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO BY EVENING. THIS IS A LITTLE BIT FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS THINKING AND LATEST TPC TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD BRING A GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY...ALTHOUGH SHOWING A DOWNSLOPING EFFECT IN THE QPF. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT GET VERY WARM TODAY UNDER AN OVERCAST CANOPY OF CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVING IN THIS MORNING. CURRENT FLOOD WATCH IS A GOOD ONE AND WILL LEAVE IN TACT. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS DUE TO STRONG SHEAR WITH HELICITY VALUES IN THE 100 TO 200 RANGE. THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF HEATING BUT THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH ROTATION. OTHERWISE THE HEAVY RAIN IS MAIN THREAT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDED 2 INCHES...AND TRAINING OF STORMS ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS. && .LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... OUR EXPECTED FASTER MOTION OF KATRINA AS COMPARED TO THE MODELS HAS IT MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY EARLY TONIGHT INTO EAST CENTRAL OHIO DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS...THE HEAVIEST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA WILL EXIT OUR REGION BY LATER TONIGHT... WITH SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS HANGING ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST DURING WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FOLLOW THE TRACK OF KATRINA...SO THAT SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA WOULD STILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAINS EARLY TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF WELL BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 143 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) AVIATION... THE STILL STRONG REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARM FRONTAL TYPE BOUNDARY EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT NORTH AND WEST AND BECOME ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO BY LATE MORNING. THE CENTER OF KATRINA WILL RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BECOMING MVFR IN CEILING BY AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN IFR IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 737 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... NUDGING POPS DOWN FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE THAT PROVIDED MUCH OF THE SUPPORT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL HAS PULLED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. FOCUSING BOUNDARY IS TOUGH TO FIND NOW OVER OUR AREA. STILL AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN TO WATCH NEAR THE VA/KY/WV BORDER AREA...BUT EXPECT A RELATIVE BREAK IN ACTIVITY THROUGH 06Z OR SO. MOST OTHER PARAMETERS LOOK OKAY FOR NOW. FIRST HINTS OF A KATRINA SPIRAL BAND NOW GETTING INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. TUESDAY WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND SOME SUPERCELL/TORNADO POSSIBILITIES OVER EASTERN AREAS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 306 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005) LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... BEEN RATHER BUSY TODAY...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP INTO CENTRAL OHIO TOMORROW AND INTO WEDNESDAY. FIGURING WITH THAT TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO. THE BEST CHC FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND POINTS WEST. STILL THINKING ANY RAINBANDS COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS ELSEWHERE WITH RAIN FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AFTER KATRINA EXITS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WX WILL IMPROVE AND DRY AND PLEASANT WX IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE FORECAST PD. WENT CAT POPS FOR TUE INTO WED AND PUT GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MAINLY FOR TUE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN BANDS. TEMPS ON TRACK. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLOOD WATCH FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047 UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY. OH...FLOOD WATCH FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087 UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY. KY...FLOOD WATCH FOR KYZ101>103-105 UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY. VA...FLOOD WATCH FOR VAZ003-004 UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...HC LONG TERM...JMV 741 FXUS64 KAMA 300828 AFDAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL TODAY AS DRY NLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER THAN THIS TIME LAST WEEK... WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BIT MORE OF A WARMUP. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY...ALSO HELPING TO KEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE AS GULF REMAINS CLOSED OFF. GRIDS/FCST IN SHORT TERM ARE IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH NO CHANGES MADE. MODELS STILL HAVING HARD TIME DEPICTING WHAT COOL FRONT WILL DO LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY. CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THAT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FASTER THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE AND BUMPED UP PASSAGE OF FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY 6 HOURS...MEANING IT SHOULD CLEAR THE FCST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. POP CHANCES LOOK RATHER SLIM AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LACKING...BUT MODELS HINT AT TWO THINGS. FIRST IS THETA-E AXIS AT 700MB WILL TRY TO SLIDE OVER REGION TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SECOND IS WEAK S/W THAT SKIRTS ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES WHICH MIGHT HELP TO GENERATE SHOWERS. UNFORTUNATELY...TIMING OF ALL THESE FEATURES WAS NOT WELL CORRELATED SO LEFT 20 POPS ALONE FOR WED NIGHT. DID ADD 10 POPS FOR DAYTIME WED AND THEN AGAIN FRI AFTN AND NIGHT...BUT EVEN THIS MIGHT BE OPTIMISTIC SINCE DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE LACKING. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ON THURSDAY BEFORE STARTING TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S BY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MIGHT FLIRT WITH MID 90S ONCE AGAIN OFF THE CAPROCK BY THE WEEKEND BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHETHER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PARKS OVER US. FCSTID = JORDAN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMARILLO TX 93 63 88 61 / 10 10 20 20 BEAVER OK 94 63 85 59 / 10 10 20 20 BOISE CITY OK 92 59 79 54 / 10 10 20 20 BORGER TX 94 65 89 62 / 10 10 20 20 BOYS RANCH TX 93 64 87 62 / 10 10 20 20 CANYON TX 91 61 89 60 / 10 10 20 20 CLARENDON TX 93 69 92 65 / 10 10 20 20 DALHART TX 92 61 81 58 / 10 10 20 20 GUYMON OK 95 60 82 58 / 10 10 20 20 HEREFORD TX 92 61 87 60 / 10 10 20 20 LIPSCOMB TX 95 63 89 62 / 10 10 20 20 PAMPA TX 93 65 90 62 / 10 10 20 20 SHAMROCK TX 94 66 92 65 / 10 10 20 20 WELLINGTON TX 95 67 93 66 / 10 10 20 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 02/17 121 FXUS65 KRIW 300832 AFDRIW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 230 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN ID BORDER ATTM PER WV IMAGERY IS BEARING DOWN ON NORTHERN WYOMING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH IS BEING DRIVEN ISALLOBARICALLY BY 5-6MB PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE CWFA THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS ARE OCCURING ACROSS SW MT...AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90KT H3 JET SLIDES ATOP THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. KBYZ 88D RADAR INDICATES THE COLD FRONT ON THE DOORSTEP OF RED LODGE AS OF 0730Z. THE FRONT WILL RACE SOUTH THROUGH THE BIG HORN BASIN THROUGH SUNRISE. THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL BREACH THE WESTERN BORDER BY AROUND DAWN...AND BE THROUGH SWEETWATER COUNTY BY NOON TURNING WINDS WEST/NORTHWEST THERE. IN SWEETWATER COUNTY...WINDS WILL BE ABOVE 25 MPH LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EXPECT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO REMAIN ABOVE 15%...THUS WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF COOLING CLOUD-TOPS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH NOON...AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO NW WYOMING. EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WYOMING THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY OF RAIN COMING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN CENTRAL SECTIONS OF WYOMING WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN AND/OR ZONDA WINDS KICK IN ALONG LEE SLOPES OF WIND RIVERS. PRECIP LINGERS ACROSS ONLY THE NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE DEPARTING COMPLETELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER TODAY. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT...WILL ALLOW EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...IN ADDITION TO THE CAA OCCURRING ALL DAY. CONSEQUENTLY LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S THROUGHOUT AREA BASINS. SOME OF THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS MAY EVEN DROP INTO THE MID 30S. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROFPA ENSUES ON WEDNESDAY...BACKING TO MORE ZONAL ON THURSDAY. NOTHING TO SPEAK OF IN THE FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT-TERM...THUS MAINTAINED SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... BIG WEATHER PICTURE FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S IN THE BASINS AND VALLEYS. THE GFS DOES WANT TO BRING UP SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE BUT CONSECUTIVE RUNS KEEP DELAYING THE ADVANCE OF THIS MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS AROUND UINTA MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT THINK THE SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY OVERDONE. OTHERWISE PACIFIC COLD FRONT STILL TIMED TO MOVE ACROSS WYOMING LABOR DAY MORNING WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHUNTED NORTH BY STRONG RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN U.S. THUS...ANY ACTIVITY TO BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN WYOMING...NO LABOR DAY WASHOUTS EXPECTED. COLD FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO AREA LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND BASINS. AFTERWARDS... SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGE EXPANDS AND WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAHN LONG TERM...AEM 985 FXUS65 KBOU 300834 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 230 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...MDLS CONTINUE TO SHW PAC CDFNT MOVG ACRS CNTRL RCKYS LATE THIS AFTN AND PUSHING S OVR HI PLAINS THIS EVE AS THE TAIL OF AN UPR TROF BRUSHES THE AREA. MDLS SHW WK DYANMICS IN FORM OF PVA AND UPWRD Q-G FORCING ALONG WITH UPWRD Q-G VERT VELOCITY...BUT THE AMS WILL RMN VERY DRY AND RELATIVELY STBL. FCST UPR AIR SOUNDINGS SHW INVRTD V TO H5 LVL AND CAPES LESS THAN 200J/KG. STG DOWNBURST WNDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY VIRGA SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS. THIS ALSO WILL INCREASE THE LIKLIHOOD OF DRY LTG BOTH IN THE MTNS AND OVER THE HI PLAINS. WILL CONT FIRE WX WATCH ATTM...SINCE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPCTD TO DVLP UNTIL LATE AFTN. ONLY ETA HAS ANY PCPN ACRS AREA THIS EVE WITH HIEST POPS ON THE PLAINS...BUT WUD EXPECT SUM DVLPMNT BY LATE AFTN. STG CDFNT WILL PUSH S OVR PLAINS DURING EVE HRS AND PROVIDE ADDTIONAL LIFT FOR ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT. TIME HGT SECTIONS SHW STG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND CDFNT..BUT ONLY NGM IS SUGGESTIVE OF ANY STRATUS ARND SNRS WED MRNG. OTHER MDLS ARE QUITE DRY IN LOWER LEVELS. MAX TEMPS TDA WILL REACH NR RECORD LEVELS WITH DWNSLP FLO DVLPG IN ADV OF CDFNT...BUT MOS GUIDANCE VALUES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS WUD BE EXPECTED AND SHW ONLY A 1-2C DEG OF WARMING ALF FM YSTRDAY. THIS WILL KEEP READINGS JUST BLO RECORD SHATTERING LVLS. LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS TNGT AS MIN TEMPS DIP INTO MID TO UPR 40S OVR PLAINS. .LONG TERM...SFC HI PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER AREA ON WED WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS AS 850-700 MB READINGS DROP FROM 10 TO 12 DEGREES EAST OF THE MTNS. THIS WOULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS NERN CO FOR WED AFTN. WITH LACK OF MOISTURE AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF AREA PCPN CHANCES LOOK LOW ON WED EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN ZOME 37 WHERE SOME ISOLD TSTMS MAY OCCUR. FOR THU SHOULD 850-700 MB TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM AS A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SELY ON THU SOME RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR OVER NERN CO. IN ADDITION MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL. WITH AIRMASS OVER NRN CO BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE BY THU AFTN MAY SEE SOME ISOLD-WDLY SCT TSTMS DEVELOP WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPS ON THU MAY WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS NERN CO AS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES C. IN THE FRI-SUN TIME PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WITH WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NRN. SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY MOVE ACROSS IN WSW FLOW ALOFT AND COMBINE WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A SLGHT CHC OF TSTMS EACH AFTN. TEMPS FRI-SUN SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 80S ACROSS NERN CO BASED ON LATEST GFS READINGS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FIRE WEATHER WATCH ON TUE FROM 1200 TO 2100 FOR FIRE WX ZONES NONE 211>217..238>245..248>251. .FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUE EVENING FROM 1800 TO 2100 FOR FIRE WX ZONES 246..247. && $$ GARD/RPK 720 FXUS63 KABR 300835 AFDABR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 335 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TIMING PRECIP POTENTIAL...WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND TEMPS. 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. BOUNDARY ALSO NOTED IN BLX AND GGW 88DS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST. 00Z GFS SOLUTION APPEARED THE MOST CONTINUITOUS WITH PREVIOUS GFS SOLUTIONS. 00Z NAM DID NOT INITIALIZE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM STRONG/DEEP ENOUGH AT 500HPA. ITS SOLUTION WAS NOTABLY WEAKER THAN OTHER SOURCES OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE PLACED IN NAM SOLUTION FOR FORECAST. THAT SAID...BOTH GFS AND NAM APPEAR TO BE TRENDING SLOWER/LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH PAC NW SYSTEM ONCE IT REACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST LIFT...MOISTURE FETCH AND FORCING WERE TIMED ACROSS CWA DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...FROM WEST TO EAST AND WX/POP GRIDS ALREADY HAVE SOMETHING IN FOR THAT TIME. NO CHANGES MADE. LEFT TODAY AND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. WHILE MODELS APPEAR TO BE TRENDING SLOWER WITH FROPA...STRENGTH OF FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR AFFECTED AT THIS TIME...WITH STRONG ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENTS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND FROPA. NIGHT TIME (POST DIABITIC HEATING TIMEFRAME) TIMING OF FROPA IS SUCH THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE BIT HARDER TO COME BY...SO FOR NOW HAVE SIMPLY BOLSTERED WINDSPEEDS 5 TO 10 KTS AND SLOWED WINDSHIFT TIMING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MADE AN ADJUSTMENT TO MAX T GRID FOR TODAY PERIOD WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING SLOWING SOMEWHAT. PUSHED WARMTH FURTHER WEST TO INCLUDE ALL OF COUNTIES BORDERING MO RIVER. REMAINDER OF TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH 850HPA TEMPS COOLING SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES CELSIUS IN A MATTER OF 12 TO 18 HOURS FROM THIS EVENING TO MID-DAY ON WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY ALL MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND LASTING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SPELLS OUT WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO MINNESOTA LATE FRIDAY AND BEGINS TO DEPART BY SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON SPEED OF THE HIGH. BIGGEST FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED IS A FRONTAL PASSAGE THE GFS IS ADVERTISING FOR MONDAY. DECIDED TO ADD SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. GFS HINTS AT THIS FRONT STALLING OUT FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE CWA. DURING THIS TIME THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH AS IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THEY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATING AND WARM 850MB TEMPS. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ DORN/TARVER 133 FXUS63 KGRB 300836 AFDGRB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 330 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS. EARLY THIS MORNING...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA WERE MOVG INTO TENNESSEE...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER WSTRN ONTARIO WAS SLOWLY MOVG SE TOWARD THE WSTRN GREAT LKS. SATL SHOWED ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS. PATCHY CLOUDS AND FOG WERE NOTED OVER N WI... BUT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT BRUSHED THROUGH FAR NE WI EARLIER HAD SHIFTED EAST AND DISSIPATED. ALTHOUGH THE BAND OF CLOUDS TO OUR NORTH APPEARED TO BE BREAKING UP EARLY THIS MORNING...THE PRESENCE OF A STRENGTHENING LLVL THERMAL TROF AND LINGERING MOISTURE SHOULD CAUSE A QUICK INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING. THE CU RULE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER NAM GUIDANCE. CLOUD TRENDS ARE TOUGHER TO PINPOINT FOR TONIGHT. NORMALLY...WITH A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING IN...YOU CAN COUNT ON AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING. BUT...GIVEN THE SATL TRENDS OVER CNTRL CANADA AND THE PRESENCE OF THE STG LLVL THERMAL TROF...THAT MAY NOT BE THE CASE. HAVE BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER FROM PREVIOUS FCST...BUT KEPT IT IN THE PARTLY CATEGORY FOR NOW. IF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OCCUR...WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVER NC/C WI...AS BOUNDARY LYR WINDS DECREASE WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS. ON WEDNESDAY...HAVE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT DRY FCST. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL TO BRING PRECIP INTO GRB CWA BEFORE EVG...BUT HAVE DISCOUNTED IT ATTM. EXPECT THAT THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN UNTIL KATRINA'S REMNANTS CLEAR THE EAST COAST. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF INCREASING CLDS FOR OUR WSTRN COUNTIES THOUGH. USED A BLEND OF THE COOLER NAM AND WARMER MAV NUMBERS...AS MIXING THROUGH 850 MB SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT PACKAGE HAD A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NORTH. BASED ON MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AND CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE UP ACROSS MINNESOTA ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN AT SOME POINT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AFTER MIDNIGHT EAST CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE MODELS WERE ALSO SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. LOOKING AT THE NAM CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS...BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DID INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH GFS A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH POSITION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. UKMET/NAM/CANADIAN SOLUTION DID NOT SUPPORT THE GFS WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BE NEEDED OVER THE NORTH. WILL LEAVE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWER TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND...THEREFORE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL BE GOING SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN SURROUNDING OFFICES (ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT OVER THE NORTH) WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE OPERATION MEX GUIDANCE FROM THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT. WITH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE...THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL TUESDAY AT THE EARLIEST. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ KIECKBUSCH/ECKBERG WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY 390 FXUS61 KOKX 300836 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 435 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 ...MUCH NEEDED RAINS ON THE WAY... .NEAR TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... IT WOULD SEEM FITTING THAT THE REGION LIES IN A TROPICAL AIRMASS AS ONE OF THE FIERCEST TROPICAL CYCLONES TO EVER HIT THE GULF COAST LIFTS NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY... EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS...WILL HELP TO STEER THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT TPC FORECAST TAKES THE REMNANT LOW WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRACKING UP INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WED NIGHT. TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GOOD CHANCES OF RAINFALL THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY WHERE MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COINCIDES WITH A SHEARING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. OUT AHEAD OF KATRINA...ENOUGH SHORT WAVE RIDGING MAY BE PRESENT TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO THE WEST. AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WORK UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH THERMAL FORCING IN A MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL A COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA WED EVENING. && .SHORT TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... AIRMASS BECOMES A BIT LESS STABLE ON WED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS... LIMITING THE TRUE POTENTIAL. 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ON WED ON THE ORDER OF 150 TO 200 M2/S2. THUS...LOW TOP CONVECTION WITH SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS. A LIMITING FACTOR THOUGH IS THAT THE REMNANT LOW WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH USUALLY LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. WHILE A LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST ON WED...ANY SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD WOULD FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. SIDING WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS WE ARE LOOKING FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z THU WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND A DRYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD HEATING OF THE SFC WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S THU AFT. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS IS THEN EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TODAY. THEREAFTER...THE GRADIENT AND LLJ SHOULD INCREASE DUE TO THE CLOSE PASS OF THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FOR SCA WINDS WED AND WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESPOND BY LATE TONIGHT BY GOING UP TO AROUND 5 FT...TOPPING OUT AROUND 8-9 FT WED EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE THURS ONWARD. && .AVIATION... VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS THOUGH 12-14Z THIS MORNING...THEN THINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT SOMEWHAT. SCT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT MAIN THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE AFTER 06Z WED. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CIGS AND VSBYS WILL ONCE AGAIN DECREASE INTO THE IFR RANGE AFTER 03Z WED. && .HYDROLOGY... EXPECT A QPF OF BETWEEN 1 AND 1 1/2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE TROPICAL NATURE OF AIRMASS...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...SINCE THE AREA HAS BEEN VERY DRY...WE DO NOT EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH RIVERS AND STREAMS. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE FORECAST HIGH HUMIDITY AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL PUT AN END TO THE RECENT FIRE WEATHER DANGER. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ 586 FXUS64 KMAF 300841 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 341 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM... SHARP MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM SWRN STATES NEWD INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY WHILE REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVE N. THIS WILL LEAVE W TX/SE NM IN NLY MID LEVEL FLOW. WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS PROGGED TO BE ACRS SE NM INTO THE TRANS PECOS REGION WHERE 7H-5H LR/S NEAR 7.5 C/KM NOTED ON NAM. MINOR SHRTWV TROF PROGGED TO DROP S LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT LITTLE LIFT IS NOTED WITH FEATURE. SFC TROF WILL REMAIN WELL W THUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO BE LACKING. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AND 85H TEMPS INCREASE TODAY WHILE LOWER DWPNTS CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN. THUS BELIEVE CAP INDICATED ON NAM40 WILL HOLD ACRS PB. WILL LEAVE ISOLD POPS W WHERE OROGRAPHICS AND AFOREMENTIONED LR/S ENUF FOR ISOLD POPS. INCREASING TEMPS STILL ON TARGET AS RIDGE AXIS WILL BE FARTHER E. .LONG TERM... FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THIS MORNING... INCLUDING TWEAKS TO POPS AND TEMPERATURES. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY THIS FEATURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE SUBTROPICAL MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT A SOUTHWARD PUSH OF PACIFIC AIR ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INFRINGE UPON THE NORTHWESTERN FA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN FA IN PROXIMITY TO THE ANTICIPATED FRONTAL LOCATION OVER THE NEW MEXICO PLAINS...AND ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE RATHER WARM/DRY PROFILES LIMITING LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN ISOLATED. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. INCREASINGLY DEEP NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL/STORMS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 93 67 93 67 / 0 10 10 10 CARLSBAD NM 97 66 96 66 / 10 10 20 20 DRYDEN TX 95 69 98 70 / 10 10 10 0 FORT STOCKTON TX 93 69 97 68 / 10 10 10 10 GUADALUPE PASS TX 89 68 89 64 / 10 10 10 20 HOBBS NM 95 68 95 65 / 10 10 20 20 MARFA TX 89 57 92 59 / 20 10 20 10 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 92 66 92 68 / 0 10 10 10 ODESSA TX 94 67 94 68 / 0 10 10 10 WINK TX 100 69 100 68 / 10 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 49/10 954 FXUS63 KMQT 300841 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 440 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE CLOUDS/TEMPS TODAY AND PCPN CHANCES WED NIGHT INTO THU. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED STUBBORN CUTOFF LOW JUST SW OF JAMES BAY A RDG FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO MANITOBA AND ANOTHER TROF FROM WRN ALBERTA TO ERN OR. THE LAST SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV SPOKE AROUND THE CUTOFF LOW...THAT BROUGHT SOME SPRINKLES TO SRN UPR MI....WAS EXITING E UPR MI. AT THE SFC...A WEAK TROF EXTENDED FROM THE SRN END OF JAMES BAY TOWARD NRN LK HURON. A RDG EXTENDED FROM NW ONTARIO INTO NRN MN AND NW WI. IR IMAGERY SHOWED SC DECK HAD BROKEN UP WITH SEVERAL CLEAR AREAS OVER THE W HLF OF UPR MI. AS A RESULT...RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP (KSAW/KIWD). THE 00Z GFS AND 06Z RUC SEEM TO HAVE A MORE REALISTIC DEPICTION OF THE AMOUNT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...PER SATELLITE AND TAMDAR SNDGS... COMPARED TO THE VERY MOIST NAM. LOWER CIGS WERE OBSERVED TO THE NW WITH MORE ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE BENEATH 875 MB INVERSION...PER 00Z KINL/CWPL SNDGS. TODAY...EVEN THOUGH EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS REMAINED UPSTREAM...EXPECT THAT ACYC DIVERGENT FLOW WITH SFC RDG ALONG WITH DAYTIME MIXING WILL HELP BRING ADDITIONAL CLEARING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...850 MB TEMPS NEAR 9C ALONG WITH LOW TO MID 50S F SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD SUPPORT SCT-BKN INLAND CU BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOME SUNSHINE...TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO WARMER GFS GUIDANCE. TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD THIN OUT ENOUGH FROM DAYTIME MIXING TO REDUCE FOG POTENTIAL BUT WITH FAVORABLE RADIAIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. AGAIN TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE GFS VALUES. WED INTO THU...ALTHOUGH THE GFS REMAINS STRONGEST WITH THE NW CONUS TROF MOVING TOWARD THE LAKES...TIMING WAS REASONABLY SIMILAR AMONG THE GLBL MDLS. PREFERRED UKMET/GFS COMPROMISED...PER HPC...SUPPORTS -SHRA CHANCES INTO THE W HLF OF UPR MI WED NIGHT WITH DEEP LYR QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE TROF. WHILE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND RESULTING LOW LVL THETA-E RDG MAY BE ENOUGH FOR TSRA INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY...MENTION OF TSTMS WAS LEFT OUT OF THE FCST OVER THE CWA AS MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY LOOK VERY MARGINAL. EVEN THE NORMALLY MOIST NAM KEEPS ANY MUCAPE S OF UPR MI AND THE GFS AND FCST SNDGS DID NOT INDICATED LITTLE/NEGLIGIBLE CAPE. LOWER END POPS (30) STILL LOOK ON TRACK GIVEN LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND WITH ONLY MODERATE DYNAMICS. SLGT -SHRA CHANCES WERE INCLUDED OVER THE ERN CWA THU MORNING AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLB 280 FXUS63 KGLD 300842 AFDGLD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 241 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE SLIM CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND WIND TONIGHT...WARMUP TODAY/COOLDOWN WEDNESDAY...AND NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING NORTHERN STREAM BECOMING MORE ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. STRONG SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH HOT/DRY RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF IT. AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. AT MID LEVEL...BASED ON SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR...THE RUC/UKMET/ECMWF ARE DOING THE BEST. MODELS WERE TENDING TO UNDERDO STRENGTH OF INCOMING UPPER TROUGH WITH THE UKMET/ECMWF THE CLOSEST. THOSE TWO MODELS ARE ALSO DOING BETTER ON DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. RUC IS SHOWING ONLY DEFINEABLE CIRCULATION WITH THE SYSTEM. LIKE THE GFS A LITTLE BETTER ON THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AT LOW LEVELS...NAM WAS DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE UKMET SURFACE FIELD. ON TEMPERATURES MODELS GOOD ON LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH THE NAM BETTER. HOWEVER...GETS TOO WARM FROM NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS TOO COOL IN WESTERN MONTANA AND WARM IN IDAHO WITH THE GFS OVERALL DOING BEST THERE. GFS/UKMET DOING BETTER WITH COLD AIR FURTHER NORTH. MODELS DOING ABOUT THE SAME ON 850 MB MOISTURE WITH MAYBE A SLIGHT EDGE TO THE GFS. MODELS NOT TOO FAR APART. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE NAM WITH LOWER LEVEL PARAMETERS AND THE UKMET/GFS ALOFT. TODAY/TONIGHT...ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS THE PROBLEM. DECENT FRONT AND MID LEVEL DYNAMICS TO MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER...BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED WELL SOUTH...AND WHAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS GOING TO GET PUSHED MOSTLY TO THE EAST. THE MET/NAM HAS BACKED OFF ITS PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AREA WILL REMAIN CAPPED DURING THE DAY AND DRY LOOKS GOOD. FOR TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT...AND BEST MOISTURE COINCIDE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. WILL MAKE AREA DRY EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN LOCATIONS. 850 MB WINDS OFF THE NAM SAY NEAR 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES. BUT WONDER HOW MUCH WILL MIX DOWN SINCE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT AND NOT A LOT OF SUBSIDENCE INDICATED. WILL HAVE IT BREEZY TO WINDY. HOWEVER...ONE CONCERN WILL BE IF VIRGA OR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WINDS TO THE GROUND. WILL HAVE THE DAY SHIFT WATCH THIS. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR MAXES SIMILAR AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND PREFRONTAL/DOWNSLOPE WARMING. MODEL GUIDANCE COOLED OFF A LITTLE AND THAT PROBABLY DUE TO LACK OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS. SO WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHATEVER PRECIPITATION THERE IS LOOKS TO HAVE PUSHED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST BY THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. CURRENT PACKAGE HAS THAT WELL IN HAND. HOW MUCH TO COOL IT DOWN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEHIND INCOMING COLD FRONT COOLED OFF AROUND 20 DEGREES GOING BY ANALYSIS. MODEL GUIDANCE REASONABLE EXCEPT FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS. WILL HAVE DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN BY AFTERNOON. WENT NEAR TO BELOW GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS...FOR MAXES. GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SET UP FOR THE NIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE BUT DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO LOWER SOME MORE. THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...ONCE AGAIN WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN. MODELS MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC/FAST WITH RETURN ALTHOUGH THEY ARE SIMILAR. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LOOK THE BEST NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE MAY BE CAPPED BUT AM NOT SURE. HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LIFT...MOISTURE... AND INSTABILITY THEN PROGRESS FROM SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. MODELS LOOK TO BE RUSHING WARMUP... ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN AREAS. 2 METER AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE BIASES LEND CREDENCE TO GOING BELOW THE MAV GUIDANCE AND CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE 4 TO 7 PERIOD AT THIS TIME. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ BULLER 336 FXUS63 KMKX 300842 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 341 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON OVERALL QUIET WEATHER EXCEPT RAIN CHANCE WED NT. CDFNT OVER CNTRL WI WILL PUSH ACROSS AREA ON INCREASING NE WINDS LATER THIS AM AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVES NEWD TOWARD KY. INSOLATION WILL LIMIT EFFECT OF COOLER AIR WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY. FOR TNT AND WED UPPER TROUGH OVER EAST TX WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE PACIFIC NW UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO MANITOBA. SRN WI REMAINS DRY AND UNDER HIGH PRES THROUGH WED. FOR WED NT...TAIL OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THETA E ADVECTION AND SFC-850 MB FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD AND ALONG CDFNT. LIFT IS WEAK BUT ENOUGH TO MENTION A CHANCE GIVEN PWS INCREASING TO 1.3-1.5 INCHES AND SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND ZERO. DRY AIR ON W-NW WINDS ADVECTS INTO AREA ON THU AS 1018 MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPS REPRESENT A BLEND OF THE GFS MOS AND ETA MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS WED AND THU. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 633 FXUS63 KLBF 300842 AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 342 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING FRONTAL SYSTEM EAST WITH IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TODAY. MODELS AT 00Z & 06Z ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH FROPA AS UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND FILLS WHILE MOVING EASTWARD. THEN SOUNDING PROFILE SHOW BLEAK OUTLOOK FOR MOISTURE AVAILABILITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS WHAT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN THE WEST WITH BETTER MOISTURE PROJECTED INTO THE CENTRAL. BLENDED WITH ADJACENT OFFICES NORTHWEST AND WEST WITH WINDS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LATE AS THERMAL GRADIENT INCREASES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MIX STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER IF CURRENT MODELS VERIFY A SLOWER FROPA WILL OCCUR WITH LESS WINDS THAN IN GOING FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THE COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING... WITH 40S THROUGHOUT EXCEPT THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHWEST AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. FOR THE EXTENDED BROAD RIDGING PATTERN REMAINS. LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND 120 HOURS WITH ECMWF MAINTAINING A GOOD CONSISTENCY IN HANDLING UPPER PATTERN. CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LOW FOR NOW AND MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST GOING INTO A HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ TLK 142 FXUS64 KHUN 300848 AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 348 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... TROPICAL STORM KATRINA HAS QUICKLY MOVED INTO TN AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. KATRINA MOVING NE ARND 25MPH ACROSS W CENTRAL TN ATTM. WIND GUSTS REPORTED ACROSS TN VALLEY WERE 55-60MPH. VELOCITY DATA FROM HTX INIDICATED 3KFT WINDS STILL ARND 55-65MPH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. MAJORITY OF RAIN HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL TN...WITH A FEW RAIN BANDS MOVING N ACROSS THE AREA. THUS EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE DECREASING AS KATRINA MOVES QUICKLY NE AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT WIND REPORTS FROM ARND THE AREA AND HTX VELOCITY DATA...COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...MOSTLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NE AL AND SRN MIDDLE TN...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DECREASE...FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY. COULD HEAR SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO BREAK AND ATMOS DESTABLIZES AFTER SUNRISE. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF KATRINA ON WED. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST ON WED. GUIDANCE BUILDS SFC HIGH PRESSURE INTO CENTRAL US ON THU AND PROGS IT TO MOVE SE TWD THE END OF THE WEEK. GFS SUGGESTS A VERY POS TILTED S/W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE US ON THU...BUT BELIEVE REGION WILL BE TOO DRY TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY PRECIP. DO NOT SEE ANY DISTURBANCES PASSING OVER THE TN VALELY TWD THE END OF THE WEEK WEEK...UNLESS AN MCS DECIDES TO RIDE THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... HUNTSVILLE 78 70 87 66 / 50 20 10 10 SHOALS 79 69 88 64 / 50 20 10 10 CULLMAN 79 70 87 65 / 50 20 10 10 FAYETTEVILLE 76 67 85 64 / 60 30 10 10 FORT PAYNE 78 69 85 65 / 50 20 10 10 && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COLBERT...CULLMAN...DE KALB...FRANKLIN AL...JACKSON...LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MARSHALL...AND MORGAN. TN...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: FRANKLIN TN...LINCOLN...AND MOORE. && $$ 88 823 FXUS64 KEWX 300849 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 349 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... AFTER A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER DAY MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND ABOVE NORMAL MAXES WILL RESUME THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THROUGH SATURDAY, A WEAKNESS IN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL GRAUDALLY SEPARATE ITSELF FROM KATRINA AND ANCHOR A SHEAR AXIS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO PARTS OF TX. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS FEATURE TO BE MOST DISTINGUISHED ON FRIDAY, BUT STILL SHOW NOT INDICATIONS OF HAVING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PRODUCE RAIN. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FRIDAY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BANK ON ANY GIVEN AREA. THUS WILL CALL FOR A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD GENERALLY BE ANCHORED AROUND NM FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GENTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE MAINLY CONTINENTAL. THE WIND TRAJECTORIES DO NOT FAVOR THE TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN SOAKED AREAS ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA, SO WILL AGREE WITH GUIDANCE MAXES AND UNDERCUT MOS MINS AND DEWPOINTS IN SPOTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 100 75 102 73 / 10 10 10 10 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 100 70 101 69 / 10 10 10 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 98 75 100 75 / 10 10 10 10 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 97 76 99 74 / 10 10 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 18/04 939 FXUS65 KBYZ 300849 AFDBYZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 249 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED... QUITE A CHANGE IN STORE FOR THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER...AND MORE WIND EXPECTED TODAY. THE REASON FOR BOTH THESE WEATHER ASPECTS IS A COLD FRONT MARCHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS HOUR. FRONT PASSED THROUGH BILLINGS AROUND 07Z AND SHOULD CLEAR THE EAST BY 15Z. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COOLER AIR. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH WAS BEHIND THE FRONT AND WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA AT THE MOMENT. UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED SOME SHOWERS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. AREA SHOULD PROGRESS EAST IN TO THE CENTRAL ZONES BUT SHOULD BECOME MUCH LESS ORGANIZED BY NOON AS THE JET MAX PROMPTING THE DEVELOPMENT SLIDES NORTH INTO CANADA. RAISED POPS TO SCATTERED OVER THE WEST THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN PLACE. NEED TO KEEP LOW POPS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHARP TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PROGGED BY BOTH MODELS TODAY. 5MB SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OVER 3 HOURS PLACED OVER THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. 850MB WINDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY PROGGED AT 35KTS. 700MB WINDS WERE WEAKER AND NOT LINKED UP WELL AT ALL. STRONGER WINDS COINCIDING WITH A TIME OF ASCENT ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE AT 700MB KICKS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT AT THAT TIME 850MB-700MB WINDS DECREASE. STILL SHOULD HAVE SOME GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH WITH THE PARAMETERS IN PLACE. WORDING ALREADY IN FOR WINDS TODAY AND WILL KEEP IT. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING. LINGERED LOW POPS OVER THE EAST AS THE TROUGH EXITS. A QUICK CLEARING SHOULD COME IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. WINDS TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE EAST. SHOULD BE A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING IN TO THE 40S...WITH SOME 30S OVER THE WEST. ZONAL FLOW TO SET UP FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DOWNSLOPE FLOW OF DRY AIR SHOULD PROVIDE A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES TO SEASONAL VALUES. HUMPHREY .LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON... ...SUMMARY... RIDGE TO BUILD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH RISING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TROUGH THEN PROGGED TO MOVE IN SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...DETAILS... ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO READINGS BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW AREAS WILL REACH 90F FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SUMMER'S NOT QUITE OVER YET. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY TRENDING WARMER OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD...SO CONTINUED TO TREND FORECAST TEMPS UPWARD FOR THAT PERIOD. ENSEMBLE RANGE IN TEMPS IS PRETTY SMALL FOR THIS PERIOD...SO TRIED TO BETTER PIN DOWN TEMPS AND FAVOR HIGH END OF ENSEMBLE RANGE. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS IN A PACIFIC TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...SO TRENDED TEMPS DOWN MONDAY ALONG WITH BROADBRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LATEST 0Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH TROUGH...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING SUNDAY EVENING. PREVIOUS RUNS HOLD OFF FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. OBVIOUSLY...SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WITH NEXT TROUGH...BUT CURRENT FORECAST RESEMBLES A COMPROMISE AMONG GFS SOLUTIONS AND ECMWF/CMC SOLUTIONS. FOISY && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. COLD FRONT IS MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AT 0830Z...FRONT WAS BETWEEN KBIL AND KSHR...AND BETWEEN KBIL AND KMLS. WINDS NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT ARE BREEZY...BUT NOT QUITE SUSTAINED AT 25 KNOTS. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WELL BEHIND THE FRONT FROM KLVM-3HT...AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS KBIL BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE HIGH BASED WITH THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD BEING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS FROM THESE STORMS. ONLY VERY ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIEST STORMS. FOISY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 071 048/077 052/082 053/086 055/088 054/085 053/077 2/T 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T LVM 069 037/077 041/081 045/086 047/087 048/084 047/079 3/T 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/B 12/T HDN 073 048/077 047/086 049/090 051/092 051/089 050/078 2/T 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T MLS 075 048/079 052/084 053/089 055/093 057/088 055/079 2/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T 4BQ 077 048/078 048/085 052/090 053/092 056/089 056/079 2/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T BHK 077 045/074 044/083 051/086 053/090 054/084 053/077 2/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T SHR 072 041/079 041/083 046/088 049/088 051/086 050/077 2/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS 462 FXUS61 KBOX 300850 AAA AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 445 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND...HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO THOSE AREAS AS A NARROW BOUNDARY HAS REMAINED THERE WITH WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS TO GET HEAVY DOWNPOURS. EVIDENCE...PROVIDENCE REPORTED 0.88" IN AN HOUR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WFO BOX RECEIVED 0.52" IN 1/2 HOUR. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 'ONLY' REPORTED PW READINGS OF 1.5" TO 1.75"...BUT EXPECT THOSE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AROUND 2" PW VALUES BY LATE THIS MORNING... RANGING UP TO 2.5" ON THE 00Z GFS. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING BAND OF RAINFALL REMAINING OVER EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO THE EAST BAY OF RHODE ISLAND...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF RAINFALL WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS /SOME LIGHTNING SEEN/ ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS AREA HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...THOUGH THE NAM SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE EASTERN BAND OF RAINFALL BETTER THAN THE GFS. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT CATEGORICAL FOR EASTERN MASS /EXCEPT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS/ AND RHODE ISLAND. INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT LIKELY ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS... WHICH IS FURTHEST AWAY FROM BEST DYNAMICS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH KATRINA BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. MOS TEMP GUIDANCE WAS VERY CLOSE THIS MORNING...SO USED A BLEND. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... MAIN CONCERN IS IN WED TO THU TIMEFRAME. GFS OFFERS BETTER SOLUTION AS IT TAKES KATRINA'S REMNANTS W OF NEW ENGLAND...SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS INTO WED NIGHT. PINPOINTING AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL IS DIFFICULT WITH TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT BY FAR SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN/NORTHERN MA ARE FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICALLY WITH A TRACK W OF NEW ENGLAND. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...BUT IT WILL TAKE TIME TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. WE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS A BIT LONGER WED NIGHT AND DELAYED CLEARING A BIT...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE MADE THU AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND BRINGS A LONG STRETCH OF DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE MAINLY MVFR...THOUGH VARIABLE TO IFR ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IN HEAVY SHOWERS. IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SOME AREAS ARE VFR ACROSS NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO LAST. EXPECT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH AREA OF RAIN MOVING SE INTO NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING...WITH THE OFF AND ON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO RHODE ISLAND. EXPECT ALL TAF LOCATIONS TO BE IFR WITH CEILINGS AOB 1000 FEET BY 00Z. && .MARINE... IN THE SHORT TERM...SEAS AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS 3-4 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 5 FEET AT GEORGES BANK BUOY /44008/. EVEN WITH S-SE WINDS AT 10-15 KTS...SHOULD FINALLY REALIZE 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS TODAY WITH LONG TERM ONSHORE FETCH. EXPECT SEAS... MAINLY S-SE SWELLS...TO SLOWLY PROGRESS TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT. IN THE LONGER TERM...WE STILL HAVE THE QUESTION OF GALE FORCE WINDS WED ESPECIALLY ON S COASTAL WATERS AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA TRACK W OF NEW ENGLAND. PREFERRED GFS SOLUTION BRINGS 40-45KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS WATERS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 35-40KT WINDS NOT TOO FAR OFF DECK. WE DO EXPECT A DECENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO BE PRESENT WHICH WILL PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN...BUT EVEN THERE 30-35KT GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. SINCE WE STILL ARE NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN TRACK/INTENSITY OF KATRINA'S REMNANTS AS THEY PASS TO OUR W...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON GALES AND KEEP WINDS IN HIGHER END OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BEHIND FRONT SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR GUSTS TO CONTINUE INTO THU. && .HYDROLOGY... HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY INTO WED NIGHT SHOULD FALL IN SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MA...WHERE WE COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 2-3"...AND 1-2" TOTALS ARE LIKELY DOWN INTO I-95 CORRIDOR BEFORE AMOUNTS TAPER OFF QUICKLY TO 0.50" ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLOODING ISSUES...ASIDE FROM MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY BENEFICIAL FOR RI AND SE MA AND THESE AREAS ARE OFF TO A GOOD START THIS MORNING! && .CLIMATOLOGY... FYI...THE RUN FOR THE DRIEST SUMMER SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN PROVIDENCE /1904/ HAS GONE BY THE BOARDS. PVD AIRPORT RECEIVED 0.85" OF PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY...THEN GOT 0.88" BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AM THIS MORNING. SO...UP TO 4 AM...THE SUMMER TOTAL IS 4.98"...BUT EXPECT MORE RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE RECORD DRIEST SUMMER TOTAL OF 4.16" SET IN 1907 REMAINS IN PLACE. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ230-236 FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ231>234 FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ235-237-250 FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ254-255 FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/CLIMATOLOGY...EVT LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...JWD 961 FXUS63 KDVN 300851 RRA AFDDVN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 335 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF TUPELO MS AT 07Z. CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ~ 980 MB.. WHICH IS 7 TO 11 MBS DEEPER THAN MODELS SHOW. SATELLITE SHOWS CIRRUS SHIELD FROM KATRINA ARCING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLACES UPPER LOW CHURNING JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.. WHICH WILL BE KEY TO EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA. ..MCCLURE.. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)... TROPICAL STORM KATRINA SOON TO BE DEPRESSION AND EVENTUALLY WEAKEN TO EXTRATROPICAL LOW WITH REMNANTS ACCELERATING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EVE AS THEY GET SCOOPED UP BY MID LEVEL TROUGH. OUTER CIRRUS SHIELD FROM KATRINA OVER SOUTHEAST CWA ATTIM SHOULD CONTINUE THINNING EARLY THIS MORNING.. BUT EXPECT SECONDARY /FAIRLY DENSE/ CIRRUS SHIELD TO ENVELOP MUCH OF THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON... JUST A GENTLE REMINDER THAT SHE IS NOT ALL THAT FAR AWAY. AS MENTIONED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF KATRINA IS CONSIDERABLY DEEPER THAN ANY MODEL SHOWS. THIS IS IMPORTANT IN THAT MODELS THEN ARE UNDERFORECASTING WIND SPEEDS FOR TODAY. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE SIDING CLOSE TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MO AND IL WHERE WINDS WERE SUSTAINED 10 KTS OR A BIT HIGHER WITH GUSTS 15-18 KTS. GUSTS SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST CWA. LITTLE CHANGE TO AIRMASS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS..SO WILL SIDE WITH PERSISTENCE BUT TAKE OFF 2-4 DEGS MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD. EXCEPTION IS THE NORTHWEST WHERE PLAN TO STICK CLOSE TO MAXES FROM YESTERDAY DUE TO MORE DIRECT SUN. TONIGHT...EXPECT GRADUAL DECREASE/THINNING IN CIRRUS SHIELD FROM WEST TO EAST. OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING WILL DOMINATE. WENT AT OR JUST BELOW LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE NORTH/WEST BEING CLOSER TO CENTER OF RIDGE AXIS. BOTTOM LINE THOUGH IS LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS... MOSTLY M/U 50S WITH FAVORED VALLEYS IN THE L50S AND URBAN AREAS IN THE SOUTH/EAST CLOSE TO 60 DEGS. ..MCCLURE.. && .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD OF BENIGN LATE SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS LATE WEDNESDAY AS SHARP UPPER TROUGH SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN ROCKIES PASSES TO NORTH SENDING WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH LOCAL AREA. PREFER 00Z GFS SOLUTION AND ITS SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING AS IT HAD BETTER HANDLE OF THIS TROUGH AND KATRINA REMNANTS AT 06Z. PRESENCE OF LIGHTNING OVER MT MOUNTAINS AT THIS HOUR INDICATIVE OF AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM THAT MODELS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN WITH H5 LOW CLOSING OFF AND MAINLY IMPACTING AREAS WELL TO OUR NORTH MID WEEK. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER NW WED AFTERNOON AND EXPANDED TO MOST OF CWA FOR EVENING WITH WEAK CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY DYING OFF AFTER SUNSET. AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND AMOUNT OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE STILL IN QUESTION...THUS KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CATEGORY LOW WITH AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 LOOKING MOST FAVORABLE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AS MID AND UPPER FORCING LACKING FURTHER SOUTH. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST WITH SURFACE HIGH DOMINATING LOCAL REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. RATHER DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN WIDE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE...FROM LOWS IN 50S TO HIGHS IN UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THROUGH WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH RESULTING LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVERHEAD FAVORABLE FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND RAISED HIGHS SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO 80S FOR MONDAY. ..SHEETS.. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ MCCLURE/SHEETS 256 FXUS65 KCYS 300857 AFDCYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 300 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY A WIND-PRODUCING COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THERE JUST ISN'T MUCH MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AND SO HAVE MAINTAINED THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY NORTH OF THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER. MODELS ARE IN CAHOOTS WITH A LATE ENOUGH TIMING OF THE FRONT THAT TEMPS WILL HAVE TIME TO RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS AGAIN. THE NAM IS STILL SHOWING PRESSURE RISES INDICATIVE OF BORDERLINE ADVISORY-CRITERIA WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHEN THE FRONT PASSES THERE EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEARING OCCURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT AND WE'LL SEE A RETURN OF SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL 15-25 DEGREES FROM TUESDAY. POMEROY .LONG TERM...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO REASSERT ITSELF OVER THE REGION AS UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SLOWLY INCREASING THICKNESSES. TEMPS SHOULD MAX OUT ABOUT SATURDAY THEN BEGIN A SLOW TREND DOWNWARD AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND AREA COME UNDER INFLUENCE OF NEXT UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. GFS TRYING TO DRAW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROF EDGES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. DGEX NOT SO AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING BULK OF MOISTURE SOUTH OF CWA. WILL KEEP FCST DRY FOR NOW AND SEE IF FUTURE RUNS NECESSITATE NUDGING POPS UP. -RE- && .FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE LARAMIE RANGE WEST TO RAWLINS. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND RAWLINS...BUT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO GET GUSTY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATIONS IN NORTHERN NEVADA WHERE THE COLD FRONT PASSED THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE CURRENT SPEED OF FRONT...IT WILL NOT GET TO RAWLINS UNTIL NOON-1 PM...AND LARAMIE UNTIL AROUND 3 PM. THE LATE ARRIVAL WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET PLENTY WARM ENOUGH TO CAUSE HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO AROUND 10%. POMEROY && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY FOR FWZ292 THROUGH 296...LARAMIE RANGE AND WESTWARD. NE...NONE. && $$ 237 FXUS64 KSHV 300858 AFDSHV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 358 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND WILL PROVIDE A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE EXTREME EASTERN PARTS OF AR AND N CENTRAL LA ZONES. AFTER TODAY RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT APPEAR UNTIL LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND THAT WILL JUST BE A SLIGHT CHANCE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT MAKE THE TEMPERATURES FEEL AS UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH THIS WEEK. READINGS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME COOLER BY THE WEEKEND. START && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 95 70 98 71 / 10 0 0 0 MLU 92 68 96 69 / 20 0 0 0 DEQ 95 64 97 67 / 10 0 0 0 TXK 96 69 97 70 / 10 0 0 0 ELD 94 67 97 69 / 20 0 0 0 TYR 96 69 100 71 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 96 69 99 71 / 10 0 0 0 LFK 98 68 100 71 / 10 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 06/22 770 FXUS64 KBMX 300900 AFDBMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 400 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...KATRINA IS PROVING TO BE A BIT MORE STUBBORN THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES DOWN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AROUND MIDNIGHT PROMPTED AN EXTENSION/EXPANSION OF THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING. DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE STORM ARE ENHANCING SURFACE WINDS...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS HAVE COME DOWN A BIT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL "BURST" OF WIND AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE WITH ANY MIXING. 50+KT WINDS ONLY 2000FT OR SO ABOVE GROUND. WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON AND ISSUANCE UNTIL THE CURRENT TROPICAL WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER WARRANTED. PLEASE REFER TO INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING (NPWBMX), HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT (HLSBMX). .LONG TERM...BASED ON THE ONGOING EVENT...WENT WITH GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED. A QUICK LOOK INDICATED NO REAL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER...COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK IN STORE...AT LEAST FOR MORNING LOWS... WITH OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GADSDEN 84 69 89 65 / 60 30 10 10 ANNISTON 84 69 89 65 / 50 30 10 10 BIRMINGHAM 84 69 90 66 / 40 30 10 10 TUSCALOOSA 87 69 92 66 / 30 20 10 10 CALERA 85 69 92 66 / 30 20 10 10 AUBURN 86 72 90 69 / 20 30 10 10 MONTGOMERY 87 72 92 68 / 20 20 10 10 TROY 88 71 91 68 / 20 20 10 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL 10 AM CDT. && $$ 12/12 793 FXUS66 KEKA 300900 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WEST WILL BRING A QUICK WARM UP TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY. EASTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY...PUSHING DRY AIR COASTWARD TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND SOME COOLING TO THE NEAR COAST MOUNTAINS. SLIGHT COOLING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND...AS THE TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE WEST COAST. && .DISCUSSION...EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND THE HUMIDITY LOW ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA TODAY...AS A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE COAST UNDER A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE HIGH DOES NOT APPEAR QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE THAN 20-25 KT GUSTS OVER THE RIDGETOPS...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST BUMPS UP THE WIND OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AS LOWER AND MID LEVEL LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND BEOMES MORE NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY. LATEST GFS NOW SHOWS 850MB FLOW BECOMING SOUTH ALONG THE MENDOCINO COAST THURSDAY...THOUGH THIS NOT SUPPORTED BY ETA12...ER NAM...MODEL. HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON EXTENT OF STRATUS FOR THU IN THE GRIDS. BUT AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE EAST PACIFIC AND THEN OVER THE WEST COAST...A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING COASTAL STRATUS AND SOME COOLING INLAND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ST && .AVIATION...PATCHES OF STRATUS AND FOG HAVE FORMED ALONG THE COAST FROM KCEC TO KACV AND IN THE EEL RIVER DELTA. IFR CIGS AND/OR IFR VISBY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY NOON...AS NORTH WINDS OF 15-25KT...2 TO 3KFT ABOVE MSL...MIXES DRY AIR DOWN TO SEA LEVEL. DJB && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GALE WARNING PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA 20-60NM. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING ALL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA OUT 20 NM. && $$ VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA 309 FXUS65 KTWC 300902 AFDTWC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 200 AM MST TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO A MINIMUM AND KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. && .DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN 6 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS...MAINLY TUCSON WEST. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AND LIMITING MOISTURE...WHICH ULTIMATELY INHIBITS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. COULD POSSIBLY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP 20 TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA BORDER IN MEXICO...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. GOES TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATING DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS AREA MENTIONED ABOVE. HOWEVER...RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT AND MOISTURE TO SEEP NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. BOTH GFS AND ETA HOW INCREASE IN THE PW BY FRIDAY WITH GFS INDICATING 1.26 INCHES. OF COURSE WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...THERE IS ALSO AN INCREASE FOR POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST MEX MOS GUIDANCE VALUES FOR POP HAVE INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN WITH TUCSON NOW SHOWING 15 POP AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AND INCREASING TO 27 POP BY SUNDAY FOR TUCSON. CURRENT FORECAST INDICATING INCREASING TREND IN POP STARTING THURSDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUCSON EAST ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH EVIDENCE OF MOISTURE INCREASE. ALSO AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL COOLING TREND IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT KTUS. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ GOERING WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON 599 FXUS63 KMPX 300902 AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 400 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT GRIDS MODIFIED TO SLOW DOWN ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN EAST TO WEST CROSS SECTION BASED ON THE 40 KM NAM BRINGS VERTICAL MOTION SPIKE INTO FAR WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTION CONTAINS AN AREA OF NEGATIVE EPV BETWEEN 80H AND 50H LEVEL...BUT AGEOSTROPHIC VERTICAL CIRCULATION REALLY ONLY HAS CONTINUITY ABOVE THE 50H LEVEL. VERTICAL MOTION SPIKE MOVES ACROSS THE MPX CWA BY 03Z THURSDAY SO WE STAYED WITH RELATIVELY LOW POPS AS CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOW ON JUST HOW SIGNIFICANT WEDNESDAY'S CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE. 40 KM NAM YIELDS PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS ABOVE 1.50 INCHES AS IT MOVES ACROSS CWA ON WEDNESDAY. IF LATER MODEL RUNS CONFIRM SUCH A SYSTEM IS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY...QPF WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED SIGNIFICANTLY BY ONCOMING SHIFTS. LONGER TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEGINNING OF PERIOD HAS LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD REMAIN LOCKED OVER THIS REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. 00Z GFS INDICATES MORE AMPLIFICATION TAKES PLACE LATER IN PERIOD AS STRONG PACIFIC TROF MOVES ASHORE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER CENTRAL US. TROF AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE INTO CWA LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. .MN...NONE. .WI...NONE. && $$ 616 FXUS65 KPIH 300903 AFDPIH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO IDAHO 300 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED EASTERN IDAHO THIS MORNING BASED ON MSAS POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES WITH THE FRONT SITUATED IN FAR WESTERN WY/NORTH-CENTRAL UT. WINDS HAVE STEADILY INCREASED ON THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY AND ARE AVERAGING 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VWP WINDS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 40KTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. FORTUNATELY...THESE WINDS HAVENT BEEN REALIZED DUE TO LACK OF FULL DAYTIME MIXING. ETA MOS WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBS SO BUMPED MORNING FORECAST WINDS HIGHER...HOLDING THEM JUST UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACCELERATES EAST. CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED TO NORTHERN AREAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER JET....MAINLY IN THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLDEST AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THE WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ALLOWING FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO DROP IN THE 30S. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...BUT ISOLATED PATCHY FROST CANT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHTS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...IT IS LOOKING DRY WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING WED AND HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO ARRIVE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM TAKES A TRACK FURTHER NORTH THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY BUT SHOWED A COOLING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...UPPER TROF AXIS WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF ID TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR CONDITIONS INTO WED. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE TODAY IN NE ID CLOSE TO THE TROF AXIS. FIRE IN SNAKE RIVER CANYON NW OF KTWF IS RESULTING IN MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KTWF AND KBYI THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY AFTERNOON. HEDGES && .PIH WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST BOIRFWPIH BULLETIN FOR DETAILS. && $$ WEATHER INFORMATION ON-LINE 24-HOURS A DAY (ALL LOWER-CASE LETTERS) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/POCATELLO 987 FXUS63 KUNR 300903 AFDUNR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 305 AM MDT MON AUG 29 2005 .DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS 998MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY MILD THIS MORNING...WITH MOST READINGS IN THE MID 60S. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD OCCUR BY MID MORNING ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AROUND NOON FOR THE RAPID CITY AREA...AND LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS 30+ KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...SO HAVE DECIDED TO POST A WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR MOST OF THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...EXCLUDING FALL RIVER AND TRIPP COUNTIES. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE ACROSS FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY MID EVENING...AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR POST FRONTAL PRECIP...AS FAIRLY POTENT VORT MAX PASSES OVER THE AREA LATER IN THE EVENING. SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA QUICKLY...AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED. EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. GFS ADVERTISING AN UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS TIMING IN STILL UNCERTAIN. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH KGCC AROUND 14Z AND KRAP AROUND 17Z. && .UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS EXCLUDING FALL RIVER AND TRIPP COUNTIES FROM 10 AM MDT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WY...NONE. && $$ 670 FXUS65 KMSO 300906 AFDMSO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT 306 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG BUT DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT. TROUGH AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE IDAHO-MONTANA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA TODAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST- CENTRAL MONTANA...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SQUEEZE OUT MORE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS MORNING. STRONG LIFT OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD BY AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END AROUND MID-DAY. COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...00Z NAM...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 00Z UKMET MODEL...FORECAST A UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND MOIST ZONAL FLOW. GFS AND ECMWF MORE AMPLIFIED AND KEEP JET STREAM FARTHER NORTH IN WEST-CENTRAL CANADA. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO HIGHER TERRAIN OF EXTREME NORTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH FAST FLOW...00Z NAM AND UKMET SOLUTION NOT AN UNREASONABLE. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET IN SOME BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING GREATER AMPLIFICATION AND DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE AREA THURSDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW AND SLOWING DOWN THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN MOVING IT INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. SOME SYNOPTIC FORCING IN AN AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITY POSES A THREAT TO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LEMHI COUNTY AND BUTTE/PINTLAR REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIMITING (KEY) FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE. LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL. HOWEVER...BEST MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHWEST MONTANA. && .AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACT TO AVIATION EXPECTED...SEE APPROPRIATE TAFS AND TWEBS. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. ID...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHURCH LONG TERM...MSJ AVIATION...MSJ 669 FXUS64 KOHX 300908 AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 408 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM... THE 30/08Z POSITION OF T.S. KATRINA WAS IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A SPEED AROUND 25 MPH. SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS RECEIVED THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST RAINFALL SO FAR (AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES). TROPICAL Z/R RELATIONSHIP WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVES A SLIGHT WET BIAS TO THE RADAR PRECIPITATION DATA. AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATE 24-HR RAINFALL OF 4.53 AT DUNN AND 4.41 AT COLLINWOOD. WINDS INCREASED ACROSS NORTH MIDDLE TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT... WITH SOME STATIONS OBSERVING WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THIS HAS PRODUCED ISOLATED DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES...MAINLY FROM FALLEN TREES. DAMAGE REPORTED FROM DAVIDSON TO LAWRENCE COUNTY WEST. DAMAGE APPEARS ISOLATED...BUT WILL PROBABLY RECEIVE MORE REPORTS DURING THE MORNING CONSIDERING 3KFT KOHX-88D RMS WINDS > 60KTS. LATEST INFORMATION FROM TPC SHOWS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATING AND MOVING INTO KENTUCKY BY THE AFTERNOON. 00Z MODELS LAG THE 30/00Z TPC POSITION...GFS80 IS CLOSEST. OBSERVATIONAL DATA INCLUDING SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS PULLING OUT FASTER. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH BUT WILL END IT AT NOON TODAY. SHOAL CREEK AND THE BUFFALO RIVER AT LOBELVILLE MAY GO INTO FLOOD...BUT ONLY MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES. THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE...BUT WITH T.S. KATRINA SPEED INCREASE WILL END IT IN THE SOUTH AT NOON TODAY...AND AT 2 PM IN NORTH MIDDLE TENNESSEE. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LOOKS TO GO SCATTERED IN THE SOUTH THIS MORNING...THEN SCATTERED IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP COVERAGE CONFINED TO THE PLATEAU AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOLER NIGHTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... NASHVILLE 77 68 86 66 / 100 40 10 10 CLARKSVILLE 76 66 87 64 / 100 20 10 10 CROSSVILLE 78 67 81 62 / 100 50 10 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEDFORD...BENTON...CANNON...CHEATHAM...CLAY...COFFEE...CUMBERLAND... DAVIDSON...DEKALB...DICKSON...FENTRESS...GILES...GRUNDY...HICKMAN... HOUSTON...HUMPHREYS...JACKSON...LAWRENCE...LEWIS...MACON...MARSHALL... MAURY...MONTGOMERY...OVERTON...PERRY...PICKETT...PUTNAM...ROBERTSON... RUTHERFORD...SMITH...STEWART...SUMNER...TROUSDALE...VAN BUREN... WARREN...WAYNE...WHITE...WILLIAMSON...AND WILSON. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEDFORD...COFFEE...GILES...GRUNDY...HICKMAN...LAWRENCE...LEWIS... MARSHALL...MAURY...PERRY...AND WAYNE. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BENTON...CANNON...CHEATHAM...CLAY...CUMBERLAND...DAVIDSON...DEKALB... DICKSON...FENTRESS...HOUSTON...HUMPHREYS...JACKSON...MACON...MONTGOMERY... OVERTON...PICKETT...PUTNAM...ROBERTSON...RUTHERFORD...SMITH...STEWART... SUMNER...TROUSDALE...VAN BUREN...WARREN...WHITE...WILLIAMSON...AND WILSON. && $$ 04 777 FXUS63 KFGF 300911 AFDFGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 411 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRIDAY)... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURES CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS/EASTERN MT AND WY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE RESULTED KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES WARMER AND ALLOWING THE DEW POINTS TO HOVER IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 40S. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE HEAT. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION TO LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CU TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN MT/WY AND MOVE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT HAVE SLOWED THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT ALITTLE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. FRONT SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY EXITING THE SOUTHERN CWA AFTER 00Z THU WITH SOME PRECIPITATION LINGERING IN THE NORTH AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK. SHOWALTERS STILL REMAIN MOSTLY POSITIVE ON THE GFS WITH THE NAM SHOWING ONLY -2 TO -4. EXPECT TO SOME STORMS TO INITIATE OVER CENTRAL ND WED EVENING WHERE THE BEST ML CAPE 1000-2000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND +50 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXIST WHICH WILL RIDE EAST ALONG THE FRONT INTO EASTERN ND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 850 MB JET DOES INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING TO 35 KTS OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY HOWEVER THE BULK SHEAR IS SHOWN TO STAY WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. VERY FEW CHANGES MADE OVERALL FORECAST THIS MORNING. MOSTLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND WINDS OVER ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. DID UP POPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ALSO REMOVED POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHOWN TO BE DOMINATING MOST OF THE REGION. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE EXTEND. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ JDS 459 FXUS65 KGGW 300913 AFDGGW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 315 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY THRU THURSDAY... STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS NE MT EARLY THIS MORNING. NO CONVECTION AND ONLY SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH IT...AS IT DISPLACES A HOT AND VERY DRY AIRMASS. HIT AND MISS GUSTY NW WINDS WITH THE FRONT. UP TO 55 KT SE WIND WAS NOTED LAST EVENING AT 4K MSL ON 88D VWP...BUT CURRENTLY DIMINISHING AND WILL NOT BE A FACTOR AS FRONT MOVES THRU. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW UP TO 40KT NW WIND AT 850 MB THIS MORNING IN OUR WEST...WHICH SHIFTS TO OUR EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIXED LAYER WILL BE ABOVE THIS LEVEL...SO WINDY WEATHER EXPECTED ALL AREAS...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MODERATELY STRONG LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIMIT SPEEDS BELOW FULL POTENTIAL. ON THE OTHER HAND...COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG. 850 MB TEMPS DROP AROUND 30F IN 24 HOURS BY AFTERNOON. RESULTING HIGHS 20-25 COOLER TODAY IN OUR WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS INTENSITY WITH MODERATELY STRONG LIFT AND VORTICITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS NE MT TODAY. THE AIRMASS COOLS AND MOISTENS UP. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE AS WELL AS RADARS TO OUT WEST SHOWERING INCREASING ACTIVITY...BUT NOT A LOT YET ON EITHER COUNT. GFS LOOKS TOO WET AND PREFER THE MORE CONSERVATIVE POPS OF THE ETA...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRIER WEATHER OF LATE...BUT DEFINITELY A CHANCE OF AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE TROUGH. DO PREFER THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF GFS AND OTHER MODELS OVER ETA IN KEEPING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST THIS EVENING. LESS UNSTABLE FORECAST MODEL LIFTED INDEXES STAY ABOVE ZERO...SO WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDERSTORM MENTION. FLAT UPPER RIDGING WITH DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY. MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENTS BELOW 10K FT KEEP WINDS TO 10KT OR LESS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY WITH THICKNESS RISES AND WARMING TEMPS...AND VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS. HAVE LOWERED MOST LOWS A FEW DEGREES AS WE HAVE TENDED TO COOL OFF MORE LATELY THAN MODELS FORECAST...BUT NOTHING AT ALL UNUSUALLY COOL. SIMONSEN .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY... BROAD AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE REGIONAL WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF WEEKEND BEFORE TRANSITION TO BROAD FLAT TROUGH LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE EARLY IN PERIOD...BUT ECMWF TENDING A BIT QUICKER MOVEMENT EAST ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE FAVORED SLOWER SOLUTION OF CANADIAN/GFS. GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWING GOOD INTERNAL CONSISTENCY OF COMPONENTS THROUGH THIS EARLIER PERIOD. BEGINNING SUNDAY...GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS MORE SCATTER BUT BULK OF COMPONENTS REMAIN SLOW TO MOVE TROUGH EAST. LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MODELS DIFFER ON DEPTH OF UPPER TROUGH. GFS AND CANADIAN FAVORED WITH SHALLOWER SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS BULK OF ENERGY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...THUS FAVORING DRY SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BASED LARGELY ON GFS ENSEMBLE...WHICH SHOWS LIMITED SCATTER IN TEMPERATURE RANGES OF COMPONENTS...WITH WARMING TREND PEAKING SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY COOLING MONDAY/TUESDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE IS DISPLACED INTO DAKOTAS. CURRENTLY EXPECT DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BECAUSE OF LITTLE SIGN OF MOISTURE IN MODELS AND CLIMATOLOGY OF SEPTEMBER...WHICH RAPIDLY DRIES OUT AFTER SUMMER CONVECTIVE SEASON ...AND NO SIGN OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED FROM LATE SEASON TROPICAL STORMS. && .AVIATION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BRIEFLY BEHIND FRONT DURING MORNING HOURS...THEN CLIMB ABOVE 20 KNOTS WHEN MID LEVEL WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING... AND CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER OF DAY. BROKEN LOWER MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT DURING THE EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. && .FIRE WEATHER...WINDY WEATHER TODAY...BUT COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PRECLUDE CONTINUING THE RED FLAG WARNING. && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW 879 FXUS65 KSLC 300910 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 310 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...DRY COLD FRONT ON TRACK AND PASSED THROUGH NW UTAH DURING THE EVENING AND SLC AT 2 AM. NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE HAVE BEEN QUITE STRONG IN THE SALT FLATS WITH GUSTS 40-50 MPH PAST COUPLE HOURS. AFTER RECORD TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER TODAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PERSIST ALL DAY. THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AS USUAL LAGS BACK AND DOES NOT COME ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH UNTIL AFTER 6 AM AT WHICH TIME A SHORT PERIOD OF GOOD DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF CROSSES THE GSL AND LIFTS INTO WYOMING. AN ISOLATED ELEVATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THIS GRADIENT AS IT SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A BAND OF CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT REACHES SOUTHERN UTAH BY NOON AND LAST IN SOUTHEAST UTAH BY LATE TODAY. DRY AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS NEXT 2 NIGHTS WITH 20S IN NORMAL COLD MOUNTAIN SPOTS AND LOW TO MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS INCLUDING THE CACHE AND SEVIER. HAVE LOWER TEMPS THESE AREAS. AIR MASS RECOVERS SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY BUT LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS. SLIGHT BACKING TO WIND ALLOWS SOME MOISTURE TO INCREASE IN THE FAR SOUTH...BUT MORE LIKELY THIS OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROF APPROACHING HELPS BACK THE FLOW AND DRAW MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. NAM HAS TRENDED TO THE GFS ON THIS IDEA. MOST SIGNIFICANT SURGE WILL BE THURSDAY EVE INTO FRIDAY WHICH DRAWS HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO THE GSL. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM SO THAT UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S RETURN TO THE WASATCH FRONT. MODELS STILL PROG A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROFS EJECTED FROM A WEAK UPPER TROF ON THE COAST. THUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME LINGERING INTO THE NIGHTS HOURS BUT MOST DIURNAL. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS STILL POSSIBLE MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS THOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS WITH THE PASSING TROF IN CANADA...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THRU 144H. && .FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS COME UP IN THE NORTH INTO THE 20S. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY HUMIDITY RECOVER HAS BEEN VERY POOR WITH PLACES STILL IN THE TEENS. FAR SOUTH AND EASTERN PART OF THE REGION IS IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE PREFRONTAL WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. THEN MUCH OF THIS AREA GETS A WIND SHIFT TODAY. PLAN IS TO UPGRADE WATCH TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR EASTERN AREAS. && .AVIATION...NONE. SEE SLCTAFSLC. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR FIRE WX ZONES 431-432-438-440-441-455>449. WY...NONE. && $$ TARDY 075 FXUS61 KCAR 300914 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 514 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL BRING A STEADY RAIN AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A CONTINUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME...WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA ARRIVING WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...JET FORCING AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH THE MOISTURE TO KEEP SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY/TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL BE DRAWN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE 850-500 MB LAYER Q-VECTOR FORCING ALONG WITH ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING WEDNESDAY. THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE WITH THE ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO BRING A STEADY RAIN TO THE REGION. THE RAINS COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOST EXTENSIVE HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING WEDNESDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA. WILL ISSUE A FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S...WITH 65 TO 70 ALONG THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES OVER LAND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOWEVER HAVE USED NAM12 TEMPERATURES FOR MAX THURSDAY. HAVE USED GFS WINDS TO POPULATE THE WIND GRIDS. HAVE USED LATEST GFS TO UPDATE SKY GRIDS THURSDAY AND GFS/MOS FOR THURSDAY POPS. HAVE NOT MADE ANY ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO SKY/POP GRIDS. && .AVIATION... EXPECT A WIDE RANGE OF CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINS IN SPOTS. GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH AREAS OF VFR. CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS TONIGHT WITH CONTINUING SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SEAS WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/RAIN ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD FOG TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. EXTENDED MARINE: PREFER FASTER GFS SO HAVE INITIALIZED THE WIND GRIDS WITH GFS BUT HAVE MANUALLY MODIFIED WINDS LOWER DUE TO MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER. FOR SEAS HAVE POPULATED GRIDS WITH WNA WAVE WATCH III. HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO WAVE MODEL SINCE MOST OF WAVE ACTION IS EXPECTED TO ORIGINATE FROM SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ANZ050 UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. && $$ SHORT TERM/MARINE...NORCROSS LONG TERM/MARINE...MIGNONE AVIATION...NORCROSS 841 FXUS63 KFSD 300915 AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 415 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... CONCERNS THIS MORNING DEAL WITH LOW WAVELENGTH TROUGHING MOVING INTO NRN ROCKIES FM PAC NW EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SHARP RIDGE ALFT ACRS CNTRL PLAINS BEFORE DIGGING LOBE THRU NERN MN. WATCHING AC FIELD WITH A GREAT DEAL OF INTEREST EARLIER THIS MORNING TO N OF KFSD ACRS NERN SD...BUT HAS DISSIPATED TO NOTHINGNESS DURING LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WHILE THERE IS SOME WAA HELPING TO DESTABILIZE A BIT ABV 800 HPA...MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY HARD TO COME BY BASED ON EVNG RAOBS. ANOTHER IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE FROM PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH NOCTURNAL SURPRISES NEARBY IS A SOMEWHAT STRONGER RIDGE ALOFT...RESULTING IN NOT QUITE AS DEFINED UPR IMPULSE TO INTERACT WITH RETURN FLOW. REST OF TDA WL BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH STRONGER S TO SE BREEZES. MOISTURE CONTENT OF LOW LVL AIR UP A BIT...BUT RECENT DRY WX AND SUNSHINE SHUD ALLOW TMPS TO BE AT LEAST AS WARM...AND LKLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ESPLY IN PREFRONTAL W. TONIGHT...WL WATCH APPROACH OF VERY DYNAMIC FRONTAL ZONE. SOME CONCERNS WITH WINDS POSTFRONTAL...BUT WITH FRONT NOT EXPECTED INTO WRN CWA UNTIL AFTER START OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION PROCESS...AND WITH THE STRONG 3H PRESSURE RISES OF 6-7HPA/3H WEAKENING RAPIDLY 06Z-09Z AS MOVE INTO CWA...WL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS... BUT EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEHIND BNDRY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PCPN. ENCOURAGING THAT MDLS GENERALLY DEAL WITH SYSTEM TONIGHT IN SIMILAR MANNER...BUT WRENCH AT LAST MINUTE IS MUCH SLOWER 06Z NAM. ALREADY HAD TRENDED THAT WAY BASED ON CONSISTENT Q VECTORS. CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT MAIN TROP SUPPORT WL LIFT NE...AND DESPITE INDICATION OF SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR ALFT OVR FRONTAL BNDRY...MORE OF A TAIL TO TROP UNDULATION SHEARING BY ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO INDICATE THAT LOW CHC POPS CONTINUE TO INDEED BE WARRANTED...WITH PCPN LARGELY TIED TO CONVERGENT FRONTAL LOCATION WITHIN GRIDDED DATASET...WITH HEDGE TOWARD BEHIND WHERE COOLING ALFT STARTS. AFTER LINGERING CLDS/PCPN WINDS DOWN MIDDAY IN WAKE OF TROUGHING... WL GENERALLY SEE TMPS RECOVER TOWARD WELL MIXED NUMBERS IN AFTN. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS OVR AREA FROM LTR WED NIGHT INTO FRI...ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL TEMP CHANGES. TREND OF CANADIAN/NAM OF LESS OF BACKDOOR COOLING BY FRIDAY SEEMS MORE ACCEPTABLE THAN OVERAMPLIFIED GFS. OTHER THAN TWEEKING WINDS AND KEEPING THINGS A LITTLE COOLER IN THE EAST INTO SAT MORNING... DID ADD IN A LOW THREAT FOR TSRA NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH APPEARS TO BE IN THE VICINITY FOR MONDAY/MON NIGHT. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ CHAPMAN 235 FXUS64 KLZK 300916 AFDLZK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 415 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST...ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS. HAVE CANCELLED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS FROM LITTLE ROCK WEST. THEN...EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM FOR AREAS EAST OF LITTLE ROCK. WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE...SO HAVE GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH NO RAIN IN AREAS WEST OF LITTLE ROCK. CHANCE POPS FOR THIS MORNING IN THE EAST...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER/PRECIP...BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. REST OF SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN DRY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE KEEPS RAIN AWAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND COOLER A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY AFTER WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH. && .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LABOR DAY THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND STILL LOOKS RATHER QUIET. RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT MOISTURE LOOKS INSUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME TO HAVE ANY MENTION OF RAIN. TEMPS WILL BE TYPICAL OF THE FIRST PART OF SEPTEMBER WITH RATHER COOL MINS (BY SUMMER STANDARDS) WELL DOWN INTO THE 60S AND WARM MAXES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... LITTLE ROCK AR 88 66 94 67 / 20 10 10 10 HARRISON AR 88 63 91 65 / 10 10 10 10 HOT SPRINGS AR 90 66 95 68 / 10 10 10 10 PINE BLUFF AR 88 67 94 68 / 30 10 10 10 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 87 64 90 64 / 10 10 10 10 MONTICELLO AR 88 67 95 68 / 30 10 10 10 SEARCY AR 86 66 91 67 / 30 10 10 10 MOUNT IDA AR 91 66 95 68 / 10 10 10 10 RUSSELLVILLE AR 89 65 94 66 / 10 10 10 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ025-ARZ033-ARZ034- ARZ045-ARZ046-ARZ047-ARZ056-ARZ057-ARZ064-ARZ065-ARZ069. && $$ SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM....29 452 FXUS64 KCRP 300916 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 415 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HOT TEMPERATURES W/ NEAR RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. LIGHTER FLOW WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF A CONTINUED UP TROUGH AXIS JUST TO THE WEST PROVIDING WEAK LARGE SCALE UVM...A POOL OF H85-H7 MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST (W/ PWS HOLDING NEAR 1.7 INCHES)...AND VERY STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN TODAY W/ BEST RAIN CHC RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE TONIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND DRYER THAN NORMAL ATMOSPHERE FOR AUG. THE UPR TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON WED DRY THINGS OUT A BIT MORE AND WILL NOT MENTION POPS ALTHOUGH A VERY STRAY SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE LIGHT WINDS PROVIDE GOOD SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ONCE AGAIN. A VERY WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON WED...BUT WILL NOT SAVE INLAND AREAS (NW-W OF A PORT LAVACA TO CRP TO NQI LINE) FROM REACHING UP INTO THE CENTURY MARK ONCE AGAIN. && .MARINE...GREAT MARINE CONDITIONS NEXT FEW DAYS UNLESS YOUR SAILING AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND SEAS BECOME RELATIVELY FLAT. SEA BREEZE WILL BRIEFLY KICK SE FLOW UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. && .LONG-TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LARGELY BE A SQUELCHER FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SIGNIFICANCE OF OCCASIONAL INTRUSIONS OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DIABTIC HEATING/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY NOT WORTHY OF ANYTHING MORE THAN GHOST POPS. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS DO SUGGEST MENTIONABLE WEATHER(ISOLATED CONVECTION) HAS ITS STRONGEST SIGNALS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN A SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. MODEL TEMPERATURE TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY CONTINUE TO BE DISCOUNTED AS PERSISTENCE REMAINS THE OPTIMAL COURSE GIVEN A DRY SOIL AND TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS CORPUS CHRISTI 102 074 099 075 099 / 20 10 05 00 05 VICTORIA 099 073 101 072 100 / 10 10 05 05 10 LAREDO 104 078 106 078 104 / 00 00 05 00 00 ALICE 104 072 104 073 101 / 10 10 05 05 10 ROCKPORT 100 078 096 077 097 / 20 05 05 00 05 COTULLA 102 074 104 072 103 / 00 00 05 00 00 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ MJG/SHORT-TERM 85/LONG-TERM 592 FXUS65 KABQ 300916 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 315 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... QUIET WEATHER DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT AS UPPER HIGH REMAINS NEAR THE VICINITY OF FAR SRN CA/NRN BAJA OF CA. RIDGE AXIS IS POSITIONED ALONG A LINE FROM SW AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION/SRN CO. THE AXIS WILL PIVOT SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY/EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES AT 500MB WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS CLIMBING ON AN ORDER OF 5C TO 15C. THERMODYNAMIC/MOISTURE PROFILES IN CONJUNCTION WITH LESS IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA WILL WARRANT NO POPS. THE ONLY CAVEAT ATTM IS A WEAK VORT MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN N TO NW FLOW ALOFT...TRACKING THROUGH THE E/C AND SE PLAINS. THE DAY CREW MAY NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE EASTERN PLAINS OR FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN MON. HOWEVER... DID GO BELOW FOUS GUIDANCE AS THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO HIGH THE LAST FEW DAYS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE SIGNALS SUCH AS DOWNSLOPING COMPRESSIONAL WINDS...LOWER DEW POINTS OR SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE 500MB TEMPERATURES BEFORE REALIZING FULL POTENTIAL OF FOUS NUMBERS. PATTERN CHANGES FOR WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INCREASE IS NOT PROGGED BY THE MODELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY... HOWEVER WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE N/NE OVER THE NE PLAINS. AN EAST CANYON WIND OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR QPF WILL BE IN AREA OF BEST CONVERGENCE OR ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS. IN ADDITION...A WEAK VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE ANY VERTICAL LIFT TO PROVIDE ISOLATED...POSSIBLE LOW END SCAT COVERAGE...OVER THE NE HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE WRN MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO REPLENISH MOISTURE PROFILES. INHERITED TOKEN TEN POPS LOOK FINE FOR THESE ZONES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WHICH WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE. THE NE QUADRANT OF THE STATE WILL EXPERIENCE THE BIGGEST DEVIATION IN READINGS FROM TUE INTO WED...WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY ANTICIPATED THUR. THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE BEST DAY FOR PCPN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AS UPPER HIGH DISPLACES ITSELF OVER CENTRAL/GFS OR SRN NM/NAM. THE AREA WILL BE IN RECYCLE MODE...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED...RIPPLES OF ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE W/NRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE. NONETHELESS...IT APPEARS THE BEST THREAT SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD COVERAGE FOR NOW. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AT DGEX/GFSLR FAIL TO COMPROMISE ON LOCATION OF UPPER HIGH. GFSLR ADVERTISING THAT THE RIDGE CENTROID WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE STATE WHICH TAPS INTO MONSOON MOISTURE OVER NW OLD MEXICO. DGEX SUGGESTING A RECYCLING PATTERN AS UPPER HIGH REMAINS PARKED OVER NEW MEXICO. WITH THIS IN MIND...CAN NOT PROVIDE ADDITIONAL VALUE TO INHERITED POP GRIDS ATTM. DPORTER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 95 56 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 90 48 86 49 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 89 49 87 50 / 0 0 0 10 GLENWOOD........................ 94 54 93 57 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 82 41 79 42 / 0 0 10 20 LOS ALAMOS...................... 88 51 82 51 / 0 0 0 20 RED RIVER....................... 78 38 73 38 / 0 0 20 20 TAOS............................ 88 45 82 48 / 0 0 10 20 SANTA FE........................ 88 52 85 52 / 0 0 0 20 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 91 54 87 54 / 0 0 0 20 ESPANOLA........................ 93 51 89 52 / 0 0 0 20 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 93 65 91 62 / 0 0 0 10 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 94 61 92 58 / 0 0 0 10 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 92 62 90 59 / 0 0 0 10 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 94 63 92 61 / 0 0 0 10 SOCORRO......................... 94 62 91 60 / 0 0 0 10 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 87 54 84 53 / 0 0 10 20 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 90 49 86 49 / 0 0 10 20 CARRIZOZO....................... 90 58 88 56 / 0 0 0 10 RUIDOSO......................... 84 53 81 49 / 0 0 10 10 RATON........................... 88 47 77 48 / 0 0 10 20 LAS VEGAS....................... 87 49 78 48 / 0 0 10 20 ROY............................. 87 56 78 53 / 0 0 10 20 CLAYTON......................... 89 58 76 54 / 0 0 10 20 SANTA ROSA...................... 93 58 87 54 / 0 0 10 20 TUCUMCARI....................... 93 62 86 59 / 0 0 10 20 FORT SUMNER..................... 92 61 88 59 / 0 0 0 10 CLOVIS.......................... 91 61 88 60 / 0 0 0 10 PORTALES........................ 92 60 89 59 / 0 0 0 10 ROSWELL......................... 96 65 94 64 / 0 0 0 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 46 688 FXUS63 KFSD 300916 CCA AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 415 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... CONCERNS THIS MORNING DEAL WITH PCPN THREAT WITH FRONTAL ZONE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED...POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR POST FRONTAL WIND...AND THEN WINDS DOWN TO TEMPERATURES INTO THE EXTENDED. LOW WAVELENGTH TROUGHING MOVING INTO NRN ROCKIES FM PAC NW EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SHARP RIDGE ALFT ACRS CNTRL PLAINS BEFORE DIGGING LOBE THRU NERN MN. WATCHING AC FIELD WITH A GREAT DEAL OF INTEREST EARLIER THIS MORNING TO N OF KFSD ACRS NERN SD...BUT HAS DISSIPATED TO NOTHINGNESS DURING LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WHILE THERE IS SOME WAA HELPING TO DESTABILIZE A BIT ABV 800 HPA...MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY HARD TO COME BY BASED ON EVNG RAOBS. ANOTHER IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE FROM PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH NOCTURNAL SURPRISES NEARBY IS A SOMEWHAT STRONGER RIDGE ALOFT...RESULTING IN NOT QUITE AS DEFINED UPR IMPULSE TO INTERACT WITH RETURN FLOW. REST OF TDA WL BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH STRONGER S TO SE BREEZES. MOISTURE CONTENT OF LOW LVL AIR UP A BIT...BUT RECENT DRY WX AND SUNSHINE SHUD ALLOW TMPS TO BE AT LEAST AS WARM...AND LKLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ESPLY IN PREFRONTAL W. TONIGHT...WL WATCH APPROACH OF VERY DYNAMIC FRONTAL ZONE. SOME CONCERNS WITH WINDS POSTFRONTAL...BUT WITH FRONT NOT EXPECTED INTO WRN CWA UNTIL AFTER START OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION PROCESS...AND WITH THE STRONG 3H PRESSURE RISES OF 6-7HPA/3H WEAKENING RAPIDLY 06Z-09Z AS MOVE INTO CWA...WL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS... BUT EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEHIND BNDRY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PCPN. ENCOURAGING THAT MDLS GENERALLY DEAL WITH SYSTEM TONIGHT IN SIMILAR MANNER...BUT WRENCH AT LAST MINUTE IS MUCH SLOWER 06Z NAM. ALREADY HAD TRENDED THAT WAY BASED ON CONSISTENT Q VECTORS. CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT MAIN TROP SUPPORT WL LIFT NE...AND DESPITE INDICATION OF SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR ALFT OVR FRONTAL BNDRY...MORE OF A TAIL TO TROP UNDULATION SHEARING BY ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO INDICATE THAT LOW CHC POPS CONTINUE TO INDEED BE WARRANTED...WITH PCPN LARGELY TIED TO CONVERGENT FRONTAL LOCATION WITHIN GRIDDED DATASET...WITH HEDGE TOWARD BEHIND WHERE COOLING ALFT STARTS. AFTER LINGERING CLDS/PCPN WINDS DOWN MIDDAY IN WAKE OF TROUGHING... WL GENERALLY SEE TMPS RECOVER TOWARD WELL MIXED NUMBERS IN AFTN. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS OVR AREA FROM LTR WED NIGHT INTO FRI...ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL TEMP CHANGES. TREND OF CANADIAN/NAM OF LESS OF BACKDOOR COOLING BY FRIDAY SEEMS MORE ACCEPTABLE THAN OVERAMPLIFIED GFS. OTHER THAN TWEEKING WINDS AND KEEPING THINGS A LITTLE COOLER IN THE EAST INTO SAT MORNING... DID ADD IN A LOW THREAT FOR TSRA NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH APPEARS TO BE IN THE VICINITY FOR MONDAY/MON NIGHT. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ CHAPMAN 413 FXUS65 KGJT 300924 AFDGJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 323 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. INCREASING SFC GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW 15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS GUSTING TO OVER 25 MPH...HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN WESTERN COLORADO AND FOR ALL OF EASTERN UTAH. ANOTHER WARM DAY IN STORE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN H7 TEMPS...WITH MID 90S AGAIN EXPECTED FOR THE GRAND VALLEY. LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY EXPERIENCING THE WIND SHIFT AS IT PASSES THROUGH. FRONT ARRIVES IN NORTHEAST UTAH THIS MORNING...AND PASSES THROUGH WESTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. VERY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH ONE OF THE COLDER NIGHTS OF THE SEASON EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 30S OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS VALLEYS LOOKS REASONABLE AND HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MOS NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DRY...COOLER AND STABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME MOISTURE WILL WORK BACK INTO THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WL LEAD TO A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY APPROACHES THE REGION WITH FLOW ALOFT COMING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT BACK INTO THE AREA...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS REBOUNDING FROM THE COOLER LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS THIS PERIOD, WHICH GENERALLY CALLS FOR A DAILY CHANCE OF AFTN/EVE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTNS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE VALLEYS. TEMPS SEASONABLE. WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. THU AND FRI... CENTERED OVER NM AND TX. WEAK PAC WAVE(S) ARE SHOWN CROSSING THE REGION WITH SOME MOISTURE HANGING ON ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS. MOISTURE PULLED NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AS THE PATTERN AND RIDGE AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH APPROACHING THE PAC NW, AND A SMALLER WAVE NEARING NRN BAJA. SOMEWHAT MONSOONAL LOOKING. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE THIS COVERED. .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT TO 9 PM MDT FOR ZONES 201 AND 203 (NORTHWEST COLORADO). .UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MDT TO 9 PM MDT FOR ZONES 428>430 AND 442>444 (NORTHEAST UTAH). && JDC/JAD 401 FXUS64 KJAN 300926 AFDJAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 426 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS TS KATRINA 5 MILES NE OF TUPELO MS MOVING OFF TO THE NNE. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOWING LIGHT BANDED PRECIP ROTATING AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF KATRINA FROM FROM WRN TN INTO NRN MS. GUSTY WINDS AND A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT ALSO (OBVIOUSLY) STILL AFFECTING THE NRN 1/2 OF THE JAN CWA THIS MRNG. EXPECT GRADIENT TO RELAX LATER THIS MORNING AS KATRINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NE. HOWEVER AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...WILL EXTEND WIND ADVISORY A BIT LONGER...UNTIL 10 AM CDT...FOR FAR NRN ZONES (NORTH OF A LINE FROM MACON TO KOSCIUSKO TO GREENVILLE). WILL ALSO CARRY LOW CHC POPS FOR RESIDUAL TROPICAL SHOWERS THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES SOME MIXED SIGNALS AS FAR AS PRECIP CHCS IN THE TONIGHT THROUGH WED TIME FRAME. WHILE THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF KATRINA...THERE WILL ALSO BE A L/W TROUGH ORIENTED ALONG THE MS RIVER VLY IN ITS WAKE. IN ADDITION...THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW A DESTINCT S/W TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LOWER MS ON WED. THUS...ADDED LOW POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER S/W TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON THU...BUT EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG NRN STREAM S/W TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HELP PUSH THE L/W TROUGH EASTWARD WITH TIME. OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY POSITIONED FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE INTERMTN REGION WILL AMPLIFY AND TRANSLATE EAST OVER THE 3-5 DAY PERIOD. THE WILL BRING A RETURN TO VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VLY REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. DID NOT DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM MOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS...THOUGH IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE MEX MAX TEMPS MAY BE TOO LOW IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IF THE H5 RIDGE INTENSITY AND POSITION VERIFY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 88 68 93 68 / 20 20 20 10 MERIDIAN 89 68 92 65 / 30 20 30 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR MSZ018-MSZ019-MSZ025- MSZ026-MSZ027-MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ030-MSZ031-MSZ032-MSZ033- MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ038-MSZ039. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR MSZ034-MSZ035-MSZ040-MSZ041- MSZ042-MSZ043-MSZ044-MSZ045-MSZ046-MSZ047-MSZ048-MSZ049- MSZ050-MSZ051-MSZ052-MSZ053-MSZ054-MSZ055-MSZ056-MSZ057- MSZ058-MSZ059-MSZ060-MSZ061-MSZ062-MSZ063-MSZ064-MSZ065- MSZ066-MSZ072-MSZ073-MSZ074. LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-LAZ009-LAZ015- LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026. AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR ARZ074-ARZ075. && $$ CBD 207 FXUS66 KOTX 300930 AFDOTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA 230 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER EACH DAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AS WE ENTER INTO ANOTHER RIDGE/TROF CYCLE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER NOW RESIDES IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. AN IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE PLUME IS FEEDING THIS SYSTEM AND CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE BC COAST ALONG 50N. THE GFS AND NAM MODELS DID A FAIRLY GOOD JOB WITH INITIAL FIELDS AT 00 UTC. THE ETA HAD A FEW NOTED DISCREPANCIES. ADD TO THIS THE FACT THAT THE GFS LINES UP BETTER WITH SATELLITE FEATURES AT 06 UTC AND IT IS NOT HARD TO SEE WHY THE GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE. AS THE PATTERN PROGRESSES THROUGH THE WEEK THE ETA AND GFS DEVELOP DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. THE ETA SEEMS TO BE A BIT FASTER WITH THE TROF AS IT DROPS SOUTH AND TOWARD THE AREA. AGAIN WILL GO WITH THE GFS HERE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. SO..FOR TODAY EXPECT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN. A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT IS PRODUCING A MID CLOUD DECK OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS SUBSIDENCE BECOMES MORE DOMINATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH YESTERDAYS HIGHS IN MOST LOCALS TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS NORTH OF SPOKANE AND C'DA. TEMPS HERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND COOLER LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE REBOUNDS. ON THURSDAY THE FASTER ETA BRINGS IN A BIT HIGHER POPS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THE SLOWER GFS HAS NEGLIGIBLE POPS AND WARMER TEMPS ON THURSDAY. AS DISCUSSED EARLIER WILL GO WITH THE SLOWER GFS. THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WITH TEMPS REACHING MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS AND NO PRECIPITATION MENTIONED. /LERICOS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST. /KOCH && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z WED. UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS TROF COULD REDEVELOP CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS INTO EXTREME EASTERN WA AND NORTH ID THROUGH 11Z...HOWEVER ALL THUNDER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST TAF AND TWEB FORECASTS FOR DETAILS. FX && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SPOKANE 72 47 77 50 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 COEUR D'ALENE 71 44 77 47 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 PULLMAN 70 43 78 46 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 LEWISTON 77 50 83 53 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 COLVILLE 71 42 79 45 84 46 / 10 0 0 0 0 10 SANDPOINT 71 42 74 45 78 45 / 10 0 0 0 0 10 KELLOGG 65 45 77 48 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 MOSES LAKE 78 47 81 50 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 WENATCHEE 75 54 81 57 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 OMAK 76 47 82 50 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. WA...NONE. && $$ 368 FXUS65 KBOI 300930 AFDBOI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID 330 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. VERY LITTLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH TROF PASSAGE OTHER THAN WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS. CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL IDAHO AND NORTHWARD. DRY OVER THE SOUTH. WINDS EXPECTED TO FINALLY SUBSIDE MIDDAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT STAY WINDY IN THE MAGIC VALLEY. MUCH COOLER ENTIRE AREA WITH 60S AND 70S OVER THE REGION. QUITE CHILLY READINGS ON TAP TONIGHT WITH CORE OF COOL AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO WARM RAPIDLY HOWEVER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WITH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES REBOUNDING SHARPLY. NO POPS IN THIS PERIOD. MONTH FINISHES OUT WITH A TRACE AT BOISE AND ONLY .02 SINCE THE END OF JUNE. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY MINOR UPDATES MADE. DRY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE CWA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY AND MONDAY INCREASING CLOUDS AND DROPPING THE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...VFR WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BOISE SHORT TERM...GS LONG TERM AND AVIATION...DH 586 FXUS62 KFFC 300933 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 530 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM... THE FIRST PART OF THE SHORT TERM IS DOMINATED BY WHAT IS CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM KATRINA. AT AFD TIME...KATRINA WAS WORKING HER WAY THROUGH NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE. THE FINAL COUPLE OF NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RAIN BANDS WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INDICATIONS ON THE GFS WITH 200 MB DIVERGENCE AND PW MAXIMA ARE NOT AS CLEARLY JUXTAPOSED AS THEY HAVE BEEN ON PREVIOUS RUNS...SO DO NOT FEEL THAT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS LIKELY. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN AND CERTAINLY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT OF FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE BANDS AND THE TRAINING OF THE CELLS AS THEY MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT AS CELLS APPROACH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE MONTHS OF ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED. THUS THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE NORTHWEST...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY. BEHIND THESE RAIN BANDS...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS KICKING IN FULL FORCE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM. SOME SORT OF PHENOMENON... WHETHER SIMPLE SUBSIDENCE OR SOMETHING MORE COMPLICATED...IS BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE IN AREAS JUST TO OUR WEST. BASED ON REPORTS COMING OUT OF ALABAMA A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA UNTIL 6 AM. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE LIKELY TO STILL BE MET AFTER THESE STRONG WINDS PASS BY...AND FOR NOW THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING. MODEL PROGS OF HELICITY CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 200-300 M2/S2 THROUGH GENERALLY MID-MORNING...AND 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES APPROACH 40KTS. HOWEVER...FOR THE LATTER...MODEL RESOLUTION AT THESE LEVELS ARE SOMETIMES NOT SUFFICIENT FOR EVEN A DECENT PROGNOSTICATION OF 0-1KM SHEAR...NEVERTHELESS THE TORNADO THREAT IS DEFINITELY A CONCERN THAT REMAINS AS LONG AS THESE FEEDER BANDS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE KATRINA MOVES OUT OF THE AREA COMPETING SYSTEMS BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE WITH ATTENDANT VORTICITY MAX SWEEPS THROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF KATRINA... AND THEN ONCE AGAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...SOME SORT OF TROUGH OR BOUNDARY STALLS JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. WHILE MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL ACTUALLY SEE A DRY BEGINNING TO SEPTEMBER...THIS STALLED BOUNDARY OR AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WARRANT KEEPING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THURSDAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASED THICKNESS VALUES WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TO COOL OFF TO BELOW NORMAL...IN SOME CASES FIVE OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES. .LONG TERM... UPPER HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE FLOW TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WILL TEASE OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE CLOUDS...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME. THE GFS DOES INDICATE TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING THE SURFACE LOW TO COME ONSHORE SPREADING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE LEFT IT DRY FOR NOW. && .AVIATION... OUTER SPIRAL BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. KATRINA CONTINUE TO ROTATE EASTWARD THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TODAY AS KATRINA CONTINUES MOVING N TO NE. WINDS BECOMING S TO SW TODAY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE WITH KATRINA DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY MOVING OF TO THE NE. SHOULD SEE SW 10KT ALL DAY WITH A FEW GUST TO 15KT. AS FOR CEILINGS...THERE IS SOME LOW STRATUS OUT THERE BUT I AM BEGINNING TO SEE SOME SCT OBSERVATIONS WITH THE DRY SLOT PUSHING INTO WESTERN GA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME BLUE SKI OUT THERE THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST GA BUT THERE IS STILL A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING TAKES OVER THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS AND SOME DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA. VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR ALL DAY EXCEPT IN AND AROUND ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATLANTA 82 72 89 69 / 60 40 20 10 ATHENS 80 71 90 68 / 50 40 20 10 GAINESVILLE 78 70 86 67 / 70 40 30 10 ROME 82 73 90 64 / 90 40 30 10 COLUMBUS 88 75 94 72 / 40 40 20 10 MACON 88 74 92 68 / 40 40 20 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR GAZ001-GAZ002-GAZ003-GAZ004- GAZ005-GAZ006-GAZ007-GAZ008-GAZ009-GAZ011-GAZ012-GAZ013-GAZ014- GAZ015-GAZ016-GAZ019-GAZ020-GAZ021-GAZ022-GAZ023-GAZ024-GAZ025- GAZ027-GAZ030-GAZ031-GAZ032-GAZ033-GAZ034-GAZ035-GAZ036-GAZ037- GAZ041-GAZ042-GAZ043-GAZ044-GAZ045-GAZ046-GAZ047-GAZ048-GAZ049- GAZ052-GAZ053-GAZ054-GAZ055-GAZ056-GAZ057-GAZ058-GAZ059-GAZ066- GAZ067-GAZ068-GAZ069-GAZ070-GAZ071-GAZ078-GAZ079-GAZ080-GAZ081- GAZ089-GAZ090-GAZ091-GAZ102. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA. TORNADO WATCH 757 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY FOR WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTHWEST GEORGIA...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...NORTHWEST GEORGIA...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. && $$ TDP 260 FXUS63 KILX 300937 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 435 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORTER TERM DEALING WITH THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA... AS WELL AS WEAK FROPA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE LONGER TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK BENIGN WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH THE PERIOD... AND COOLER TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND. .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY... TROPICAL STORM KATRINA IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN TENNESSEE. WV/IR SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT KATRINA MAY BE BEGINNING TO MAKE A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TURN... FOLLOWING THE PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE... GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND... BETWEEN OUR PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND LARGE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM 00Z INDICATED MODEST HEIGHT RISES FROM ILX AND POINTS NORTH AND WESTWARD... WITH RATHER DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HANGING IN OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHICH ANY INCOMING PRECIP WILL HAVE TO WORK AGAINST. SO OBSERVATIONS SEEM TO INDICATE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CWA... JUST SCRAPING BY THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE RAINFALL GRADIENT WILL BE VERY SHARP... SO THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHERE IT SETS UP. GFS/UKMET CONTINUE TO PERFORM THE BEST WITH KATRINAS TRACK... AND THE FUTURE PATH OF THE STORM. THE MODEL-BASED QPF FIELDS APPEAR TO BE... AT LEAST SPATIALLY... CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED TRENDS. WENT WITH THE HPC GRIDS... WHICH LOOKED GOOD... FOR THE ACTUAL QPF AMOUNTS. BOTTOM LINE... THE HIGHEST POPS/QPF WILL BE TIGHTLY STACKED ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES... WITH LIKELY POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70 WITHIN THE ILX CWA. THIS HAS NECESSITATED NUMEROUS ZONES WITHIN THE ZFP. SINCE WE'LL ONLY BE ON THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP... IT WON'T TAKE LONG FOR THE BACK EDGE TO PULL OUT OVERNIGHT. POPS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THEREFORE DROP BACK DRAMATICALLY... WITH A DRY FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AS KATRINA ZIPS INTO PENNSYLVANIA. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL FOR THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY... AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW... QUICKLY MOVES INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT OR WIND SHIFT LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... THEN ACROSS THE CWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW... IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER... THE MERE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY COULD SPARK OFF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. FOR NOW... WILL KEEP THE WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY... BUT WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE THINKING HERE IS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG WITH BOUNDARY WOULD OCCUR ALONG WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING... AND THE CHANCES MIGHT ALSO BE BEST IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE ANY KATRINA-BASED RAINFALL MIGHT JUST LEAVE BEHIND SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR BROAD RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH A BROAD SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR COOLER TEMPS... UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD WELL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MIDDLE 50S... IF NOT LOWER... GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND SLACK WINDS UNDER THE 'BIG BUBBLE.' TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD... ALLOWING RETURN FLOW. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. $$ HARDIMAN 402 FXUS66 KPDT 300937 AFDPDT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR 235 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY W-SW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY HAS EXITED THE REGION...AND WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGE (I.E. IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS...AND MAYBE A RECORD LOW OR TWO WILL BE REACHED. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. SMITH .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO SOME AREAS...MAINLY ALONG THE CASCADES EAST SLOPES. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES ZONE (WAZ025). ELSEWHERE THE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND DOWN SLOPE WINDS OFF THE CASCADES WILL INHIBIT PRECIPITATION. THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN RETURN BY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. 88 && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MORE DETAILS IN THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WILL BE WRITTEN AFTER THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 76 49 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 78 54 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 82 48 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 78 46 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 79 47 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 75 48 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 75 37 82 40 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 76 43 81 46 / 0 0 0 0 5J0 78 42 84 44 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 78 54 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. && $$ TI:GGG FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON 85/88 565 FXUS65 KTFX 300940 AFDTFX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 340 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT A SLOW WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER MAKE A RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN MONDAY. MOST AREAS WILL BE CLOSE TO 30 DEGREES COOLER TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO MONDAY AFTERNOONS TEMPERATURES. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT BY LATE EVENING AS A SURFACE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL NIGHT OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND A COLD NIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. HIGHER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY GO WELL BELOW FREEZING AGAIN. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR READINGS BY THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE OVER GLACIER PARK...WHERE THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND LIGHT. BRUSDA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. MOISTURE AND ANY TYPE OF FORCING IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AN UPPER TROF BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS PERIOD DETRACT FROM FORECAST CONFIDENCE. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE AND A COMPROMISE SOLUTION OF A WEAK...RELATIVELY DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING...COOLING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR...OR A LITTLE BELOW...SEASONAL AVERAGES. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES. EK && .AVIATION... UPDATED 1100 PM MDT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF IT EXPECT A BAND OF CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE THREAT OF BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE SHOWERS. BEHIND THE TROUGH EXPECT CLOUDS BECOMING SCATTERED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 68 43 76 49 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 65 40 72 46 / 30 0 0 0 HLN 69 45 77 48 / 20 0 0 0 BZN 70 37 75 42 / 30 0 0 0 WEY 64 23 69 25 / 30 0 0 0 DLN 67 36 75 43 / 20 0 0 0 HVR 70 44 77 49 / 20 0 0 0 LWT 65 40 74 46 / 20 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BRUSDA LONG TERM...EMANUEL/EK AVIATION...EMANUEL WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS 607 FXUS66 KPQR 300942 AFDPQR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR 300 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR DRY WARMER WEATHER AND DECREASED ONSHORE FLOW EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR THE NORTH COAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO WEAKEN FRIDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH LATE SATURDAY AND MOVE INTO WASHINGTON ON SUNDAY. WILLSON && .SHORT TERM...A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN IN THE MOIST AIR MASS LEFT BEHIND YESTERDAYS WEATHER SYSTEM. WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS INLAND AND CLOUDS CLEAR AWAY. A FEW AFTERNOON OROGRAPHIC INDUCED CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MAY GIVE SOME NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS TO THE NORTH COAST ZONES AND DOWN THE COLUMBIA RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BY MID WEEK TO BACK ABOVE NORMAL. WILLSON .LONG TERM...ECMWF AND LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS ARE A BIT FASTER WITH SYSTEM MOVING INLAND THIS WEEKEND SO IN COORDINATION WITH NWSFO SEATTLE WILL PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH COAST SATURDAY EVENING AFTER 00Z WITH PRECIPITATION NORTH PART SUN AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO WESTERN WA. WILLSON && .AVIATION...A MIXTURE OF FOG AND STRATOCUMULUS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE MORNING HOURS BRINGING AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES. EXPECT IFR VISIBILITIES TO LIFT AROUND 16Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AROUND 19Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT POPS AST ----1 PDX -000- SLE -0000 EUG -0000 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES .WA/OR...NONE. && $$ MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT... http://weather.gov/portland THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA. 965 FXUS65 KPUB 300943 AFDPUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 340 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM... (TODAY AND TONIGHT) ...STRONG COLD FRONT HEADING TOWARDS THE REGION... CURRENTLY...SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE FCST AREA. OVER THE REGION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS NOTED FROM C MONTANA SSW TO SALT LAKE. STRONG PRESSURE RISES WERE NOTED BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. OVER THE HIER TRRN...SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY OVER THE C MTNS. ON THE PLAINS...WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. ISOLD POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE C MTNS AND PIKES PEAK REGION...MAINLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HOT FOR LATE AUGUST...WITH TEMPS AT OR NEAR 100F ALONG THE LOWER ARK RIVER VALLEY. BEST CHANCE FOR 100F READINGS WILL BE FROM PUB TO LHX. DECIDED TO NOT GO WITH ANY FIRE WX HILTITES TODAY. TSRA WILL BE ISOLD AT BEST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. RH VALUES WILL BE AT OR AROUND THE MARGINAL CRITICAL VALUES OF 15%. WINDS WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL AT THE 25 MPH RANGE MAINLY OVER THE C MTNS. SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE REGION HILITED IN THEIR FIRE WX OUTLOOKS. FOR TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE C MTNS/PIKES PEAK REGION BETWEEN 03Z-06Z AND WILL RACE SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E PLAINS. WIND GUST TO 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE EVENING WITH WINDS RELAXING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. POPS WILL BE...AT BEST...ISOLD MAINLY OVER THE E PLAINS. BEING A PACIFIC FRONT...TEMPS WILL NOT COOL ALL THAT MUCH TONIGHT... WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S (WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP TONIGHT). \/HODANISH .LONG TERM... (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY) NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PAST FEW LONG TERM DISCUSSIONS WITH MAIN METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS THIS CYCLE CONTINUING TO BE THE AMOUNT OF COOLING ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE SOMEWHAT INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER FLOW IS PROJECTED TO BE ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH SETS UP OVER THE NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS REGION WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME INCREASING LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THEN INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A HINT OF ANOTHER NORTHERLY SURGE ATTEMPTING TO PUSH INTO THE REGION BY LATER MONDAY...THEREFORE HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM SHOULD BE NOTED WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM SHOULD NOTE TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR REMOVED FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. ONCE AGAIN...GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WELL-BEHAVED FOR THE LONG TERM. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 201 FXUS65 KFGZ 300943 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 230 AM MST TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY AND TAPS SOME MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS. BY THURSDAY A DEEP LAYER UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF ARIZONA AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND WILL LIKELY ADVECT AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -8 TO -10 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...WILL CREATE A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AS A RESULT...FROM THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. MCCOLLUM && .AVIATION...CURRENT PRODUCTS ADEQUATELY COVER THE WEATHER SITUATION. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. DL && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 501 FXUS64 KMEG 300947 AFDMEG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 440 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 ...DISCUSSION... HECTIC EARLY MORNING HERE WITH PHONE LINES GOING DOWN AND OTHER ISSUES WITH KATRINA. KATRINA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THREAT OF FLOODING NOW LIMITED TO WEST TENNESSEE SO HAVE TRIMMED FLOOD WATCH. IN ADDITION WITH KATRINA MOVING QUICKER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED HAVE TRIMMED INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING BACK AND CHANGED THE EXPIRATION TIME TO 10 AM. ONCE KATRINA MOVES OUT OF THE AREA DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM FOR ALCORN AND TISHOMINGO COUNTIES. TN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10AM FOR ALL COUNTIES. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM FOR CARROLL...HENDERSON... DECATUR...CHESTER...MCNAIRY AND HARDIN COUNTIES. $$ AC 881 FXUS66 KMTR 300948 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA 300 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING EAST INTO IDAHO AND UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING AND IN ITS WAKE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND GREAT BASIN. NORTHERLY GRADIENTS HAVE RAMPED UP SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY AND THE ACV-SFO GRADIENT IT 7.5MB AT 09Z WHILE THE E-W WMC-SFO GRADIENT HAS JUST TURNED OFFSHORE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE WMC-SFO GRADIENT IS 2.7MB AT 09Z BUT THE NAM AND GFS QUICKLY INCREASE THIS GRADIENT TO 8MB BY 15Z THIS MORNING. RAWS SITES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST BAY ARE JUST BEGINNING TO RECORD N- NNE WINDS AS HIGH AS 15 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 20S AT 09Z...BUT JUST TO THE NORTH IN LAKE COUNTY...KNOXVILLE CREEK RAWS IS REPORTING 17 MPH WIND WITH GUSTS TO 37 MPH. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND 15Z. WILL CONTINUE THE RFW IN NAPA COUNTY THROUGH 19Z TODAY AS THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED HERE...AND MONITOR EAST BAY RAWS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS EXCEEDING RED FLAG CRITERIA. MOST RAWS IN THE EAST BAY HAVE HAD RH'S AS HIGH AS THE LOW TO MID 40S OVERNIGHT AND SUSTAINED WINDS WILL NEED TO EXCEED 20 MPH TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA. ASIDE FROM FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE A CLEAR AND WARM DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG N-S GRADIENT HAS MIXED OUT THE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...80S AROUND THE SFO BAY AND LOW 90S WELL INLAND TODAY. LOCAL W-E (SFO-SAC) GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ONSHORE (1.7MB) AND WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO A LIGHT... LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE WARM AGAIN AS THE WMC-SFO GRADIENT REMAINS MODERATE OFFSHORE WITH ONLY A LITTLE COOLING ALONG THE COAST AS THE MARINE LAYER BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS REALLY SLACK OFF WED NIGHT AND THE NAM BL RH BRING A RETURN TO THE STRATUS IN EARNEST ALONG THE COAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE THE USUAL COOL FOGGY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WITH WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE CORE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE FARTHER NORTH AND OFFER A WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW...THAN THE CURRENT EVENT...IN ITS WAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL AREA TERMINALS TONIGHT AS A HEFTY NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS THE COAST STRATUS FREE. WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE WINDS ACROSS THE EAST BAY HILLS AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS A POSSIBILITY LATER TONIGHT/TUE AM NEAR KOAK. AT THIS POINT THE THREAT OF LLWS LOOKS MARGINAL AT WORST SO WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TDA...RED FLAG WARNING...FIRE WX ZONE 265 THROUGH NOON. SCA...PT REYES TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: KENNEDY MARINE/AVIATION: WEAGLE/PI NOAA'S NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO 806 FXUS65 KVEF 300950 AFDVEF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 300 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER TODAY ACROSS THE REGION OWING TO A SURFACE COOL FRONT THAT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY. && .SHORT TERM...STRONG TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PACNW HAS ALREADY PUSHED A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BOTH NAM AND GFS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS IT PASSES THROUGH AND NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE WHOLE CWA...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW...BUT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY. KEPT ISOLATED POPS FOR MOHAVE...EASTERN CLARK...AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL. .LONG TERM...MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BUILDING BACK OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ECMWF AND UKMO ARE BOTH PREDICTING A CONTINUED DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUT GFS AND DGEX ARE DEPICTING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF IMPORTING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. SLIGHT CHANCE VERBIAGE WAS INTRODUCED YESTERDAY FOR EACH AFTERNOON THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WAY TO PLAY THE SITUATION. && .AVIATION...TAF ADEQUATELY COVERS ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT KLAS. && .VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NV...NONE. .AZ...NONE. .CA...NONE. && $$ DAVIS/RUNK 077 FXUS64 KLIX 300954 AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 450 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... OBSERVATIONAL DATA THIS MORNING FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS SURFACE AND UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS SHOW A TRAILING TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN SIDE OF T.S. KATRINA CENTERED JUST NORTH OF TUPELO. THAT TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MS AND SOUTH CENTRAL LA PARISHES. WILL CARRY 20 TO 30 POPS TODAY EAST OF THE TROUGH GIVEN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WORKING UNDERNEATH THE LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION OF T.S. KATRINA. THIS RESULTS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PARISHES AND COASTAL WATERS TODAY. RADAR DATA IS VERY LIMITED OVER THE WESTERN AREAS DUE TO CONTINUED COMMS PROBLEMS IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE LAKE CHARLES AREA MOVING EAST NORTHEAST. WE INITIALLY TRENDED THE FORECAST CLOSER TO GFS ON COVERAGES TODAY ALONG THE TROUGH AS IT SEEMED TO MATCH UP MORE FAVORABLY WITH THE OBSERVED SYNOPTICS...BUT OUR INITIAL FORECAST THIS MORNING MAY HAVE TO UNDERGO AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN POPS OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI TODAY SHOULD THIS CONVECTIVE TREND TO THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUE. THIS IS DEFINATELY NOT WHAT WE WANT TO SEE OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST ZONES GIVEN THE CONTINUED SITUATION THERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS VERY CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE GRAVITY/EXTENT OF RESCUE OPERATIONS IN THE WAKE OF KATRINA. WE WILL CONTINUE THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MS GULF COAST GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING HOLDING WATER LEVELS UP. SOME CONCERN INITIALLY ALSO ABOUT WESTERLY FLOW (ALBEIT LIGHTER) ALONG AND WEST OF THE TROUGH WORKING INTO THE LAKE MAUREPAS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN AREA TODAY WHERE WATER LEVELS ARE HIGH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT SITUATION VERY CLOSELY AS WELL...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT A WHOLE LOT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AVAILABLE TO ACT UPON. OVER THE MARINE AREA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSTED THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BRING THEM DOWN (ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST) IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. && SPECIAL NOTICE TO MEDIA AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT/STORM SPOTTERS...ALL AGENCIES IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI THAT NEED TO CONVEY CRITICAL INFORMATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS ARE ASKED TO PLEASE CONTACT NWS MOBILE AT 251-633-2471...OR 251-633-0921. COMMUNICATIONS REMAIN OUT OF SERVICE AT NWS NEW ORLEANS. ALL WATCH...WARNING AND FORECAST INFORMATION IS BEING GENERATED AND SENT FROM NWS MOBILE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 92 73 95 71 / 10 10 10 10 BTR 94 73 95 72 / 10 10 10 10 MSY 92 79 94 77 / 30 10 10 10 GPT 90 75 93 75 / 30 10 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL ZONES EXCEPT LAKES PONCHARTAIN AND MAUREPAS. MS...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING COASTAL AREAS CONTINUES. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL ZONES. && $$ WFO MOBILE FORECASTER ID=05 455 FXUS62 KGSP 300959 AFDGSP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 559 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... UPDATE FORTHCOMING TO HEADLINE TORNADO WATCH 758...RECENTLY ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCLUDING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 313 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM KATRINA SHIFTING A BIT MORE EASTWARD IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FOR THE REMNANT LOW AND MUCH MORE EASTWARD THAN INDICATED BY EITHER OF OUR SHORT RANGE MODELS. CONVECTION IS REALLY FILLING IN NOW IN BETTER SHEAR AND FORCING AXIS ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PROPER. AS THIS DEEPER MOISTURE GETS THROWN UP AGAINST OUR HIGHER TERRAIN ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA. IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE WE SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE EASTERN ZONES. WILL HIGHLIGHT CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY AND LIKELY TO CHANCE EAST...AND HOLD ON TO THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT. WE WILL CHANGE THE MONIKER TO FLOOD WATCH SINCE MOST AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN RECEIVING RAINFALL OVERNIGHT ARE THE SAME LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING...AND THE RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. WITH THE FORWARD SPEED OF KATRINA INCREASING...CHANGES IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE FASTER AND MORE VARIABLE THAN PREVIOUSLY BELIEVED. THE EASTWARD SHIFT WILL MAKE IT LIKELY THAT SOME HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME RATHER HIGH WIND GUSTS. UPSTREAM...THE 88-D AT KBMX AND KHTX STILL SHOW 40 TO 50 KTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE; PROFILE OVER OUR REGION MUCH LIGHTER AT PRESENT BUT WE DO ANTICIPATE AN INCRASE IN THE WIND. AN UNUSUAL WIND PHENOMENON OVER NORTH ALABAMA HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS TREES DOWN THERE EVEN WITH MUCH LIGHTER OBSERVED WINDS FROM METAR SITES THAT HAVE MANAGED TO REMAIN ONLINE. THERE COULD BE POCKETS WHERE THE HIGHER RADAR-INDICATED WINDS HAVE BEEN BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE OR A GRAVITY WAVE IS POSSIBLE. IF WIND SPEEDS NEED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOR THE WESTERN CWFA THIS MORNING...THERE IS STILL TIME TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS UPSTREAM AS WIND PROFILES STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PREDAWN AND AS THOSE STRENGTHENING PROFILES IMPACT NORTH GEORGIA. FOR NOW...WE WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA...MENTIONING SOME WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR SO AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CWFA HAS BEEN EARMARKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...SLIGHT RISK WEST FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ALL OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE FAR SOUTHERN UPSTATE...MODERATE RISK INDICATED NOW FOR THE CENTRAL UPSTATE THROUGH THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THIS DUE STRONGER 0-1 KM FLOW AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ANY SURFACE HEATING TO ENHANCE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IN THE LEE TROF EAST OF APPALACHIANS. INTERESTING THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS BRING SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR INTO THE WESTERN CWFA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS EASTERN SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE MOIST. WE ALSO LOSE A LOT OF OUR DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON..ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WIND SPEEDS OVERALL ARE PROGD TO STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE WITH SURAFCE CIRCULATION AROUND KATRINA MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH AND UPPER TROF APPROACHING WITH POTENTIAL DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION LATE. WITH MODERATE RISK IN PLACE FOR THE AFTERNOON...WE WILL INCLUDE THE SEVERE WORDING IN THE ZONE TEXT. IT MIGHT BE PRUDENT HERE TO MENTION THAT A TORNADO WATCH DOES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME WESTERN CWFA UNTIL 6 AM. AS SIGNIFICANT ECHOES UPSTREAM APPROACH THE REGION...WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL WATCHES POSTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. PLAN TO TONE DOWN POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE CWFA BUT MAINTAIN DECENT CHANCES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED AND CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING WITH APPROACH OF NOT ONLY THE UPPER LOW REPRESENTING THE MID LEVEL PART OF KATRINA BUT ALSO THE OVERALL APPROACH OF THE TROF IN WHICH THE SYSTEM IS ENVELOPED. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGD TO SWING AROUND TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS EVENING AND TO WESTERLY...DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION...BY MORNING. MODELS BRING A DRY SLOT INTO THE AREA ALSO WITH THE FEATURE...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEARS TO SUPPORT THAT IDEA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS SUGGEST A RAPID DRYING OUT AND A BOUNDARY CROSSING THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. WE WILL KEEP CHANCES GOING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY PROGD...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE NOT WORKED ON TEMPERATURES YET BUT EXPECT BELOW NORMAL WEST TODAY...WARMER EAST WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... ADJUSTED WIND SPEEDS AND POPS SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE. AVIATION... MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH KCLT DEVELOPING A LOW CLOUD CEILING BEFORE SUNRISE. ONCE IN THE MVFR...EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS A PREVAILING CONDITION THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MODELS SHOW A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. HOWEVER... EXPECT PRECIP TO BE OFF AN ON AND SHOWERY...WITH STRETCHES OF GOOD VISIBILITY IN TROPICAL AIR. THE TEMPO GROUP IS TAILOR MADE FOR THIS SCENARIO SO I WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT...AND MOVE THE PRECIP FORECAST TO TEMPO CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES. EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP TO MOVE NORTH AND FADE WITH SUNSET...SO HAVE OPTED FOR A VCSH AFTER 00Z WITH A LOW CLOUD CEILING HANGING ON. LOOKING AHEAD... GUIDANCE SHOWS CEILINGS DROPPING INTO IFR RANGE IN SOME CASES TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL BE CONSIDERED IN THE NEXT ISSUANCE. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...FLOOD WATCH FOR GAZ010-017-018-026 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. ...TORNADO WATCH FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 UNTIL 2 PM TUESDAY. ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY. NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ033-034-048>055-058-059-062>067 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-034-048>055-058-059-062>067 UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY. ...TORNADO WATCH FOR NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>067 UNTIL 2 PM TUESDAY. SC...FLOOD WATCH FOR SCZ001>005 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ001>007-010-011 UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY. ...TORNADO WATCH FOR SCZ001>007-010>012-019 UNTIL 2 PM TUESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...SAB 010 FXUS66 KHNX 301000 AFDHNX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA 300 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW TROF AXIS MOVG THRU WRN NV AND CENTRAL CA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND MODELS SHOW IT MOVING E AT A FAIRLY GOOD CLIP TODAY. SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL PUSH THE THERMAL LOW TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE SIERRA TODAY. WHILE CURRENT TEMPS ARE RUNNING 5-10 DEGS LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...MOVEMENT OF THE THERMAL LOW WILL TEND TO NEGATE SOME OF THIS. SO WHILE NOT QUITE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY TEMPS STILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. THERMAL LOW WILL CONT AT OR NEAR THE COAST WED AND THURS...AND TEMPS AGAIN INCREASE TO SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE KERN MTNS/DESERTS OVERNITE WILL GRADUALLY ABATE THIS MORNING AS SFC PRESSURES RISE IN THE GREAT BASIN...OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURS. .LONG TERM...FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH TO THE WESTERN CONUS COAST BY SUNDAY...PUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. THE 00Z MODELS DIFFER ON HOW DEEP THE TROUGH WILL BE WHEN IT REACHES THE STATE WITH THE GFS BEING THE STRONGEST AND THE ECWMF BEING THE WEAKEST. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA AND KEEP A DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL CA THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL LOWER SLOWLY TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS AND DIURNAL THICKNESSES LOWER IN A DRY ATMOSPHERE. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z WEDNESDAY. SPECIFIC DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL. && .HNX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/ BINGHAM/DS 154 FXUS66 KLOX 301002 AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 250 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...CURRENTLY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO FLATTEN OVR SRN CAL THIS MORNING. THIS WILL HELP THE MARINE LAYER REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER COASTAL AREAS OF LA/VTU TODAY. ACARS AND LAX PROFILER SHOW THAT MARINE LAYER IS CURRENTLY NEAR 1000 FT DP. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE NOW TRENDING ONSHORE...YET LAX-DAG SFC GRADIENTS ARE NOT FORECASTED TO BE THAT IMPRESSIVE. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS AND PUSHING SLOWLY NORTH. PUT IN PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING FOR THE LA COASTAL AREAS...BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF VTU AND SBA COASTAL AREAS DUE TO FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SUNDOWNER THAT DEVELOPED LAST EVENING OVER THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND LOCAL FOOTHILLS. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED OVERNIGHT FOR THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST FOOTHILLS AND THE WESTERN SANTA BARBARA MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. WILL LET WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 300 AM THIS MORNING SINCE SBA-SMX GRADIENTS HAVE BEGUN TO RELAX A BIT AND LOCAL OBS HAVE SHOWN THE WIND TO DECREASE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. NAM-12 X-SECTION KEEPS STRATUS LIMITED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING...BUT ANY STRATUS THAT DOES FORM WILL BE QUICK TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING. 500 MB HEIGHTS DROP A TAD TODAY OVER THE REGION...WITH 950 MB TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. THEREFORE ONLY A SLIGHT COOL DOWN TODAY OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TODAY. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS FOR LA/VTU AND SBA WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE MARINE INFLUENCE. A FEW VALLEY AREAS WILL STILL REACH TRIPLE DIGITS TODAY...BUT MOSTLY WILL BE IN THE 90S TODAY. THICKNESS LEVELS AND 950 MB TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING A BIT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER LVL TROF MOVING OVR THE AREA AND AN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS WILL DROP INTO THE 90S AND SOME UPPER 80S...WHILE THE DESERTS WILL DROP BELOW 100 DEGREES. COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE SIMILAR TEMPS BOTH DAYS. NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT OF SUNDOWNER FOR SBA COUNTY TONIGHT SINCE GRADIENTS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE. THURSDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT REBOUND IN TEMPS OVER THE INLAND AREAS WHILE THE COASTAL AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SIMILAR TEMPS AS THE PREVIOUS DAY OR MAYBE A TAD COOLER WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. .LONG TERM... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH UPR LVL RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE EAST WHICH SHOULD INCREASE TEMPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE. COASTAL AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION... A WEAK AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW CATALINA EDDY CENTERED OVER SAN PEDRO AND BELOW 944MB WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. AIRCRAFT INDICATED AN INVERSION BASE AROUND 1KFT EARLY THIS MORNING AND AS THE LIGHT TO MODERATE DESCENDING NORTH FLOW PREVAILS THIS MORNING THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN SHALLOW. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS THAT REDEVELOP BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...KAPLAN AVIATION...FORWOOD 262 FXUS61 KBUF 301002 AAA AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 600 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE... LIGHT RAIN IS STILL LINGERING OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY IN RESPONSE TO LIFT IN THE LFQ OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX THAT IS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE. WILL MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. THE REST OF THE PREVIOUS AFD FOLLOWS. .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... THE THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST ARE FORMING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN LAKE HURON TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STAY WEST OF OUR AREA TODAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA MOVES UP THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. THUS...WHILE THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT OUR AREA TODAY...IT WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN HELPING TO FOCUS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHWEST NEW YORK STATE LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE FA SHOULD STAY DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SINCE THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA IS JUST BEGINNING TO WORK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OHIO. THE GFS TRACKS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS STEADIER RAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER TOWARD EVENING...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE NORTHING MORE THAN A COUPLE OF SHOWERS. THE REAL ACTION GETS UNDER WAY TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA APPROACH NEW YORK STATE. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...COMBINED WITH THE ADDED LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE FROM HPC SHOWS A GENERAL 2.0 TO 3.0 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. SINCE THIS RAIN IS FORECAST TO FALL OVER AN 18 HOUR PERIOD...MOST OF THE MAJOR STREAMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE RAINFALL. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE IN URBAN AREAS AND ALONG SMALL STREAMS IF THE PCPN IS CONCENTRATED OVER A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME. BECAUSE THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA...WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FA FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SINCE THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY...MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY 00Z THURSDAY. WILL STILL LEAVE IN A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THURSDAY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE ON THURSDAY BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL CANADIAN LOWS. BY THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL BC LOW WILL BE OVER QUEBEC...NO REAL IMPACT ON WESTERN NY...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE US WITH A FINE WEEKEND LASTING INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME IFR VISIBILITY IN LIGHT FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE REMAINS OF KATRINA WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN RAIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VISIBILITY IN MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... AS KATRINA MOVES NORTHWARD WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST AHEAD THE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR LAKE ONTARIO WATERS FROM NIAGARA RIVER TO SODUS BAY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE REST OF THE NEW YORK SHORES OF THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. && .BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NYZ01>008-010>014-019>020-085 .MARINE...NONE $$ .SHORT TERM...TJP .LONG TERM...ZAFF .AVIATION...APB 773 FXUS65 KREV 301003 AFDREV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV 302 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM... DEEP UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW SHOWS UP WELL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. LIKE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...THE ONLY LIGHTNING IS BEING DETECTED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER. LIGHTNING IS ALSO BEING DETECTED OVER THE ID/MT CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BENEATH THE VORT MAX THAT IS MOVING UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN AS THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA. THERE IS VERY LITTLE REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE AS THE AIR MASS BEHIND IT IS SO DRY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. THE MODELS TAKE THIS STRONG VORT MAX TO EASTERN MONTANA BY 00Z WED AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 00Z THURS. AWAY FROM THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH...THE FRONT OVER NEVADA WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. VORT MAXIMA WILL RIDE ALONG THIS QSTNRY FRONT. WITH SUCH A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION ABOUT THE ONLY EFFECT WE WILL NOTICE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS...BUT EVEN THIS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE. WITH THE LOW MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE RIDGE OVER THE SWRN CONUS WILL WEAKEN TODAY...PRODUCING A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN OUR WIND SPEEDS. MILD LATE-SUMMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. O'HARA .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF THE TROUGH. THE ECMWF/UKMET ARE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE GFS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER. THE GFS ALSO KEEPS A VERY WEAK BAGGY TROUGH OVER CA THROUGH MONDAY...NOT SHOWN ON THE ECMWF. THE CANADIAN IS AT LEAST 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS...AND HOLDS SOME TROUGHINESS BACK SIMILAR TO THE GFS. STILL NOT CONVINCED THAT THE GFS/CANADIAN IDEA OF HOLDING THE TROUGH BACK WILL WORK OUT. AS IT LOOKS NOW...THE FORECAST WOULD NOT BE AFFECTED MUCH EITHER WAY OTHER THAN PERHAPS KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY. FORECAST WILL SHOW DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. RC && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS. SEE TAFS AND TWEBS. RC && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NV...NONE. .CA...NONE. && $$ 019 FXUS61 KCLE 301006 AAA AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 605 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM UPDATE (TODAY)... QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF AREA AND ADD SUCH WORDING TO PRODUCTS AND WEB. HAVE ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9AM FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...ANTICIPATING FOG WILL LIFT A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU THURSDAY)... EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO...WHILE MAIN FOCUS IS ON DETEORIATING REMNANTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE. AT THE SURFACE...A VERY WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM EASTERN MICHIGAN...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...WHICH WAS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WERE BEING PRIMED FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION...WITH NAM LAGGING BEHIND IN TIME AND SPACE WITH REGARDS TO EXACT PLACEMENT OF PRECIP AND WHEN IT ARRIVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UKMET ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 00Z GFS...INDICATING AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF 2-3 INCHES FROM MANSFIELD TO CLEVELAND AND THROUGH ERIE PA. THAT BEING SAID...BOTH GFS AND UKMET ARE SLIGHTLY TOO FAR WEST IN THEIR 6HR PROG AS COMPARED TO ACTUAL CONDITIONS AS OF 06Z. NOT A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE...BUT THIS COULD MEAN THAT THE SHARP CUTOFF OF PRECIP ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF STORM COULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AT THE MOMENT. CONSEQUENTLY...THIS WOULD ONLY FURTHER ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS OVER EXTREME EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA...THEREFORE AM PLANNING ON EXTENDING THE FLOOD WATCH INTO ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK THE STORM TAKES...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE A GOOD SOAKING RAIN OVER 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WILL REFRAIN FROM EXTENDING WATCH WESTWARD TO INCLUDE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY...AS IT LOOKS LIKE RAINFALL TOTALS IN THAT AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1 - 1.5 INCHES. IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL THREAT...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ON EAST SIDE OF STORM IN WARM SECTOR BECOME RATHER INTERESTING AFTER 18Z TODAY. WHILE CAPES ARE NOT HIGH...SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES INCREASE DRAMATICALLY IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT...ROUGHLY EAST OF A YOUNGSTOWN TO MANSFIELD LINE. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY STORMS IN THIS REGION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE...AND WHILE IT CANT BE SAID THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEFINITELY HAPPEN IN THIS AREA...IT CANT BE RULED OUT EITHER. DREW IN AN AREA OF THUNDER FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WARM SECTOR TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT FEEL THAT REMAINDER OF AREA WILL SEE MOSTLY SHOWERY TYPE ACTIVITY. STORM TO RAPIDLY DEPART AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY CLEARING NORTHWEST PA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FORECAST OF QUICKLY DRYING THINGS OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT IF CURRENT RUN OF GFS VERIFIES...EVEN THIS MAY BE TOO SLOW...AND MAY NEED TO DRY OUT NW PA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY WILL SEE RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. NO CHANGES MADE FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. LITTLE TO NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS THROUGHOUT SHORT TERM...GENERALLY NEAR MAV. && .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)... RELATIVELY QUIET EXTENDED WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. HAVE DRY FORECAST WITH PRIMARILY DIURNAL CLOUD COVER. AGAIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...WARMING TO AROUND/LOWER 80S BY MON. && .AVIATION (06Z-06Z)... XPC MVFR CONDS THRU EARLY MORNING IN FOG AND HZ WITH RAIN SHIELD FROM THE RMNTS OF KATRINA OVERSPREADG THE REGION FROM S TO N AFTER 10-12Z...FIRST AT MFD/CAK VCNTY. MVFR CONDTIONS WILL DVLP SHORTLY AFTER THE ONSET OF RAIN. WL KP MVFR THRU 00Z OR SO BUT XPC IFR CONDS TO OVERSPREAD REGION WITH SUNSET. ALSO BEST CHC FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAFL WL BE FM MFD EAST AFTER 00Z SO WL PLACE +SHRA IN TEMPO GRP FM 02-06Z. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...FLOOD WATCH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO TUE AFTRN THRU WED AFTRN. .PA...FLOOD WATCH ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES TUE AFTRN THRU WED AFTRN. $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...LEINS SHORT TERM...LEINS LONG TERM...OUDEMAN AVIATION...TK 370 FXUS65 KLKN 301016 AFDLKN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV 315 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A LITTLE MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN NEVADA BEGINNING THURSDAY FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. && .DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY WITH A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND COLD FRONT PRODUCED WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH AT WENDOVER EARLIER TONIGHT BUT WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND ARE NOW IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MODELS HAVE SFC PRESS GRADIENT DECREASING AFTER 5 AM PDT AND WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 7 AM PDT SO WILL UPDATE TO LET ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 AM INSTEAD OF 10 AM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SOME MOISTURE MOVING INTO FAR ERN NV FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING THUR SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLGT CHC TSTMS THAT AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER EXPECTED CONDITIONS. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7AM PDT/8AM MDT/THIS MORNING FOR EXTREME EASTERN ELKO COUNTY. && $$ CEC 117 FXUS66 KSGX 301018 AFDSGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 320 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING A SLOW COOLING TREND AND SLOW DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WILL BRING SOME MINOR WARMING WITH ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING SOME MINOR COOLING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL EXTEND LOCALLY INLAND TO THE LOWER COASTAL VALLEYS. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A LINGERING WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING A SLOW COOLING TREND TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH SLOW DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER AND GREATER STRATUS COVERAGE. THIS TROUGH WEAKENS DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME MODEST WARMING FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING SOME MINOR COOLING. FOR THIS MORNING...ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MINOR DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...TO AROUND 1200 FEET. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS COVERAGE A LITTLE GREATER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...ALONG THE COASTS OF ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES EXTENDING LOCALLY INLAND. STRATUS SHOULD SPREAD INLAND INTO THE LOWER COASTAL VALLEYS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH SUNRISE WITH STRATUS ALSO SPREADING LOCALLY INLAND ALONG THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST. COVERAGE WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. && .AVIATION...LIFR/IRF CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST SPREAD INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 100 FOOT CIGS AT CRQ AND 400 FOOT CIGS AT OKB. THE COASTAL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS THIS MORNING AS A WEAK EDDY DEEPENS THE MARINE LAYER SLIGHTLY. CLOUD BASES WILL BE NEAR 500-800 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 1000 FT. IN SOME OF THE MESAS THE CLOUDS DECK WILL BE ON THE SURFACE AND VIS WILL BE NEAR ZERO. STRATUS SHOULD RETREAT BACK TO BEACHES 17-19Z WITH CLOUDS LINGERING AT THE COAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK FOR TONIGHT AND WED...EXPECT A DEEPENING MARINE LAYER AND FURTHER RESURGENCE OF THE MARINE STRATUS CLOUD PATTERN...EXTENDING FURTHER INLAND. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MARTIN AVIATION...MOEDE $$ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO IS ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO 078 FXUS65 KPSR 301028 AFDPSR AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-301800- AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 320 AM MST TUE AUG 30 2005 SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE THE EXCESSIVELY HOT WEATHER TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE FROM MEXICO TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA THURSDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY LOWER EACH DAY THE REST OF THIS WEEK THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND... BECOMING CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BY LABOR DAY. && .DISCUSSION... THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN RESULTING IN EXCESSIVELY HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. THIS MEANS NOT QUITE AS HOT WEATHER TODAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE EXCESSIVELY HOT DAY TODAY WITH AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CONTINUING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE FROM MEXICO TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA THURSDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER EACH DAY THE REST OF THIS WEEK THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BY LABOR DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES WEAKER. && .AVIATION... DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS. TAFS ADEQUATELY DEPICT CURRENT AND EXPECTED WEATHER FOR PHX...IWA...YUM...BLH AND IPL. SEE TAFS PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM TODAY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST DESERT AREAS INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...YUMA...AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ZONES 20 THROUGH 23...AND 25 THROUGH 28. CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM TODAY FOR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ZONE 31. && $$ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX ELLIS 124 FXUS65 KPSR 301030 AFDPSR AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-301800- AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 320 AM MST TUE AUG 30 2005 SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE THE EXCESSIVELY HOT WEATHER TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE FROM MEXICO TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA THURSDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY LOWER EACH DAY THE REST OF THIS WEEK THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND... BECOMING CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BY LABOR DAY. && .DISCUSSION... THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN RESULTING IN EXCESSIVELY HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. THIS MEANS NOT QUITE AS HOT WEATHER TODAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE EXCESSIVELY HOT DAY TODAY WITH AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CONTINUING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE FROM MEXICO TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA THURSDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER EACH DAY THE REST OF THIS WEEK THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BY LABOR DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES WEAKER. && .AVIATION... DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS. TAFS ADEQUATELY DEPICT CURRENT AND EXPECTED WEATHER FOR PHX...IWA...YUM...BLH AND IPL. SEE TAFS PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM TODAY FOR THE DESERT AREAS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...YUMA...AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ZONES 20 THROUGH 23...AND 25 THROUGH 28. CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM TODAY FOR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ZONE 31. && $$ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX ELLIS 732 FXUS64 KFWD 301036 AAA AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 240 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .AVIATION... KDFW AND KACT TRACONS WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AS KATRINA MOVES THROUGH TENNESSEE AND INTO THE OHIO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 7-12 KTS TODAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. 75 && .DISCUSSION... 240 AM. IN SHORT...NO RAIN IN THE NEAR FUTURE WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...BUT SLOWLY DROPPING BY THE WEEKEND. REMNANTS OF KATRINA TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT SUPPLY OF NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW...KEEPING HUMIDITIES LOW AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO MORE NORMAL VALUES. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL HAMPER RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AS WE GET A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND DROP TEMPS. AFTER LAST WEEKS STRETCH OF 100 DEGREE AFTERNOON HIGHS AND NEAR 80 DEGREE MORNING LOWS...THIS WILL BE MUCH MORE PLEASANT...DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN. FOR NOW...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL IMPROVE UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE WESTERLIES REMAIN TO THE NORTH...KEEPING THE GULF MOISTURE CUT OFF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 96 72 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 WACO, TX 97 70 99 70 / 0 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 93 67 95 68 / 10 0 0 0 DENTON, TX 95 70 98 70 / 0 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 94 71 98 71 / 0 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 96 73 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 95 70 98 71 / 10 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 96 70 98 71 / 0 0 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 98 72 99 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 75/42 144 FXUS65 KLKN 301045 AFDLKN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV 345 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A LITTLE MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN NEVADA BEGINNING THURSDAY FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. && .DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY WITH A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND COLD FRONT PRODUCED WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH AT WENDOVER EARLIER TONIGHT BUT WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE NOW AND MODELS SHOW GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THEREFORE WILL CANCEL WIND ADVISORY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SOME MOISTURE MOVING INTO FAR ERN NV FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING THUR SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLGT CHC TSTMS THAT AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER EXPECTED CONDITIONS. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ CEC 328 FXUS66 KSTO 301046 AFDSTO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 330 AM TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL REBUILD INTO CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OREGON WILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OVER 40 MPH ARE OCCURRING THROUGH JARBO GAP IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS AND UPPER RIDGE. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE POLAR JET LIFTS NORTH AND THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A WEAK TROF. GRADIENTS FALL OFF AND WARMING PEAKS WEDNESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR 25C. MANY TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY...AND INCREASES FRIDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE WILL SEE THE RETURN OF COASTAL STRATUS CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DELTA...AND A COOLING TREND INLAND BY FRIDAY. ECMWF/GFS ZIP THIS TROF BY TO THE NORTH SATURDAY...UKMET HARDLY HAS ANY BUCKLE IN THE RIDGE AT ALL. FORECAST WILL TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SG && .AVIATION... MODERATE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN WAKE UP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE ROUTES ESPECIALLY DOWN THE NORTHERN SAC VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE ...VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL ROUTES THROUGH PERIOD. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING...NOW THROUGH 6PM WEDNESDAY FOR FIRE WX ZONES 213... 215...216...263...264...266 FOR GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND AND LOW HUMIDITIES. && $$ 235 FXUS61 KILN 301047 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 647 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .AVIATION (12Z-12Z)... REMNANTS OF KATRINA CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY PUSH NORTH. IFR CEILINGS BEGINNING TO EDGE INTO CWA. THESE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS STILL HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON KATRINA...HOWEVER SYSTEMS IS MOVING A BIT QUICKER THAN GUIDANCE. HAVE GRADUALLY TAPERED PRECIP OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SITES BY 06Z. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 340 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... LOW ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF KATRINA ALREADY UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE. THIS IS SIGNIFICANTLY QUICKER THAN EVEN THE LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS. THE FASTER GFS STILL APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS BUT EVEN IT APPEARS TO BE 3 TO 6 HOURS TOO SLOW. BASED ON STRAIGHT EXTRAPOLATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO...THE LOW SHOULD BE APPROACHING KCVG SOMETIME AROUND 19Z...ABOUT 5 HOURS FASTER THAN WHAT THE 00Z GFS IS SHOWING. ALSO...HEAVIEST RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LOW (WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED) BUT BASED ON THIS AND EXPECTED TRACK OF LOW...THINK HEAVY RAIN BAND WILL END UP A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER THINKING. THE 00Z MODELS SEEMED TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS...SHIFTING HEAVY RAIN BAND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST IN OUR FA THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY USED THE 00Z GFS AS A TEMPLATE FOR THE GRIDS...AND THEN JUST SHIFTED THINGS FORWARD A FEW HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HAVE HEAVIEST PCPN OVERSPREADING FA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION ENDS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT AND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF FA. STILL THOUGH...WILL HANG ON TO A CHANCE ON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MOST AREAS FOR CONSISTENCY/COLLABORATION PURPOSES. BASED ON FASTER MOVEMENT...QPF AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT BUT GIVEN TROPICAL AIRMASS...STILL THINK A SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. WILL CARRY JUST SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS WE SHOULD DESTABILIZE SOME THROUGH THE DAY. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...IN MORE FAVORABLE REGION OF LOW. WITH HIGH SHEAR VALUES...WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. WILL EXTEND FLOOD WATCH A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE WHITEWATER VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE MIAMI VALLEY. AS WE GET UP INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST...WILL CARRY HEAVY RAIN WORDING BUT IT APPEARS FFG VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH THAT FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED. AS IT NOW LOOKS LIKE BULK OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END EARLIER...WILL ADJUST END TIMES OF THE FLOOD WATCHES AND ONLY TAKE IT THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE SOUTH AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH. ALSO WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FASTER....THINK TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH TODAY SO WILL NUDGE HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR TODAY. SIMILARLY...WILL NUDGE UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AS WE SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 AVIATION (06Z-06Z)... RAIN BANDS FROM KATRINA HAVING A TOUGH TIME WORKING INTO SOUTHERN SITES THIS MORNING. HAVE PUSHED TIMING BACK AN HOUR OR TWO FOR ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...JUST FINE TUNED THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SOME IFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KCMH AND KCVG...THEREFORE HAVE ADDED THOSE TO TEMPO GROUP. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS TO MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK. (ISSUED 342 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005) LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE REMAINS OF KATRINA. A WEAK BNDRY/TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GFS TIME HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE...SO WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY. IN FACT...AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED DRY AS WELL...AS GFS TIME HEIGHT PROFILES STILL LOOK VERY DRY THROUGH MONDAY. LOOKING AT GUIDANCE AND HPC...HIGH AND LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ 333 FXUS66 KSTO 301047 AFDSTO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 330 AM TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL REBUILD INTO CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OREGON WILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OVER 40 MPH ARE OCCURRING THROUGH JARBO GAP IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS AND UPPER RIDGE. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS TOMORROW INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE POLAR JET LIFTS NORTH AND THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A WEAK TROF. GRADIENTS FALL OFF BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WARMING PEAKS WEDNESDAY WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR 25C. TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY...AND INCREASES FRIDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WE WILL SEE THE RETURN OF COASTAL STRATUS CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DELTA...AND A COOLING TREND INLAND BY FRIDAY. ECMWF/GFS ZIP THIS TROF BY TO THE NORTH SATURDAY...UKMET HARDLY HAS ANY BUCKLE IN THE RIDGE AT ALL. FORECAST WILL TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SG && .AVIATION... MODERATE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN WAKE UP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE ROUTES ESPECIALLY DOWN THE NORTHERN SAC VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE ...VFR CONDS ACROSS ALL ROUTES THROUGH PERIOD. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING...NOW THROUGH 6PM WEDNESDAY FOR FIRE WX ZONES 213... 215...216...263...264...266 FOR GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND AND LOW HUMIDITIES. && $$ 033 FXUS61 KRNK 301050 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 650 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .AVIATION... A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT IFR TO LIFR STRATUS TO SITES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INCLUDING ROA/LYH AND DAN. THESE SITES WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMROVE THIS MORNING AS THE FLOW VEERS TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH FLOW AND BANDS OF TROPICAL SHOWERS BEGIN MOVING THROUGH. I EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT BLF AND LWB...BUT WITH PERIODS OF IFR AS THE SAME TROPICAL SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. ALL SITES WILL LIKELY SEE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS REDUCED TO IFR. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST...SHOWERS SHOULD END...AND ONLY MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. BLF COULD SEE AROUND 15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 255 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... FINALLY STARTING TO SEE ENHANCED SHRA ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC. STILL LOOKS LIKE BULK OF RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF OUR FA...WITH BANDING SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS OUR FA...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BIG CONCERN TODAY WILL BE DESTABILIZATION AND TORNADO THREAT...GIVEN HELICITIES PROGGED IN THE 150-300 RANGE PER GFS. SPC ALREADY HAS MOST OF THE FORECAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN A MODERATE RISK. CAPES ARE NOT ALL TOO HIGH...AND THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP ATMOSPHERE FROM GETTING TOO UNSTABLE. STILL WIND ENERGY AND SHEAR COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SVR. QPF NOT TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP. THINKING PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP FASTER THAN PROGGED...GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING. DRY SLOT LOOKS TO WORK INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA TOWARD EARLY EVENING...WITH PRECIP SHIELD SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST PER GFS SOLUTION. THREAT OF SVR SHOULD BE OVER AFTER 00Z. GENERAL GRADIENT WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NC...DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES TODAY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DUE TO A LITTLE SLOWER TIMING ON THE RAIN BANDS MOVING IN AND ANTICIPATING A LITTLE SUN. WILL HAVE MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH TROPICAL AIR OVER THE REGION. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... REMNANTS OF KATRINA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY WED MORNING...OR CLOSE TO THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS. STILL A SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MORNING...SO COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...WINDS VEER MORE TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON...AND THE GFS IS ALSO SHOWING FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE AREA...WHICH IS REASONABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF OF A HURRICANE. I HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS GOING INTO WED AFTERNOON...BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE I THINK THEY CAN BE REMOVED. I ALSO RAISED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WED- ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT. I EXPECT WE WILL CLEAR OFF ENOUGH WED NIGHT WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TO SEE LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. STILL HAVE STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY...THEN SEE CUMULUS DEVELOPING AND SPREDING OUT BENEATH THE STRONG INVERSION ALOFT. I STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ JJ 806 FXUS63 KIWX 301051 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 551 AM EST TUE AUG 30 2005 .AVIATION... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO GOING FCST OTHER THEN PROBLEMATIC FOG DVLPMNT THIS AM FM FWA S AND E. DILEMMA IS HOW LONG TO HOLD ON TO IT AS LL MSTR CREEP STEADILY INCREASES THROUGH THIS AM. WOULD SUSPECT W/DAYBREAK...EMERGING INSOLATION IN TANDEM W/TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AHD OF EJECTING REMNANT TROPICAL SYS WILL MIX IFR CIGS/VSBY AT FWA OUT QUICKLY W/MID LVL VFR DECK LEFT BEHIND. OTHERWISE...OBVIOUS BUMP TO ARRIVAL OF PCPN AS SYS RAPIDLY LIFTING NEWD W/SFC ONSET OF CONSEQUENTIAL RAIN AT FWA THIS AFTN. ANOTHER PD OF MVFR/IFR CIG/VSBY POSSIBLE THERE THIS EVENING AS LEFTOVER DEFORMATION SHIELD PIVOTS THROUGH. && .SHORT TERM... 00Z GUIDANCE STRUGGLING W/HANDLING OF REMNANT KATRINA CIRCULATION. AS OF 06Z...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MID LVL FTR OVR SW TN AND WELL AHD OF 06Z PROGS W/A CONTD TYPICAL UNDERESTIMATE OF SFC LOW INTENSITY. COMPARED TO LAST EVENING...TS CYCLONE POSITION NE OF PROGGED POSITION AND LATEST HPC GUIDANCE BUT ALSO NOTED W/LATEST TREND IN 00Z GFS WHICH BY ALL ACCOUNTS SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON SYS AS IT ACCELERATES NEWD. STRUGGLE THIS MORNING AGAIN LIES W/WWD EXTENT OF PRECIP SHIELD AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE TN VALLEY TODAY BUT LOOKS TO BE A BIT EWD OF PREV EXPECTATIONS YET STILL A HEAVY RAIN THREAT SE CORNER LT THIS AFTN AND OVERNIGHT INADV OF MID LVL CNTR AND DEEPENING MSTR FLUX. WILL LEAVE THINGS PRETTY MUCH AS IS BUT WRN POP EXTENT MAY BE OVERDONE SOMEWHAT AT THIS POINT. WILDCARD OUTSIDE OF THAT LIES W/SFC TROF EXTNDG SWWD OUT OF UPR TROF OVR ERN ONT. 00Z NAM SUGGESTION OF CONV ALG THIS BNDRY LT AFTN/EVENING IN CONCERT W/STRENGTHENING LL MSTR FLUX HAS MERIT W/XPCD DESTABILIZATION UNDERNEATH INCIPIENT MID LVL DRY SLOT XPCD. ALTHOUGH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITHIN LEFT FLANK OF DECAYING TROPICAL SYS STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE FOR A VRY TIGHT QPF GRADIENT OVERNIGHT...NOTHING NORTHWEST TO 2 INCHES FAR SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE GOING TEMP FCST LOOKS GREAT W/AFTN RAIN ARRIVAL FAR S/SE AND DEEPENING CLOUD SHIELD S-N THROUGH THE DAY. && .LONG TERM... THE MAIN THING TO CONTEMPLATE FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME IS WHAT THE EFFECTS ARE GOING TO BE FROM KATRINA ON WEDNESDAY. WATCHING CURRENT SATELLITE PICTURES, KATRINA IS MOVING QUITE QUICKLY NORTH AND EASTWARD. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF KATRINA...UP NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH OHIO AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THEY MAY NOT BE HANDLING THE SPEED CORRECTLY OF THE MOVEMENT OF KATRINA. GFS80 MOVES KATRINA THE FASTEST ALONG THIS TRACK HAVING THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AT 12Z WED AND THEN OVER NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN VERMONT BY 00Z THUR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP TO MOVE KATRINA ALONG ON ITS PROJECTED PATH. WITH NUMERICAL POP VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALSO VERY LOW, HAVE PULLED ALL RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF KATRINA, OVER THE NEXT SHIFT OR TWO, POP VALUES AND AREAL COVERAGE COULD ALSO BE DECREASED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ALSO BE LESS ON WEDNESDAY THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT IF KATRINA WAS TO QUICKLY MOVE BY OUR CWA. WE COULD HAVE HAD SOME RAIN ON THURSDAY; BUT THE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS OUR CWA WILL WEAKEN AND ALMOST BE NON-EXISTENT THROUGH OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. 500MB FLOW IS FAIRLY ZONAL ON THURSDAY WITH BASICALLY NO INDICATION OF A TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE OVER OUR CWA FOR THE REST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD TO MONDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE TEMPERATURES. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN LONG TERM...LOTHAMER 681 FXUS61 KRLX 301053 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 655 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .AVIATION... GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE WINDS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY VEER AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS KATRINA LIFTS NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE MENTIONED THUNDER IN TAFS DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND THIS EVENING AS SYSTEM SHIFTS BY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 345 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (THROUGH TODAY)... TS KATRINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT EXTENDS WELL INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. IT IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATED THE CENTER OF KATRINA BECAUSE LOOKING AT THE SATELLITE DATA...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION IS JUST EAST OF THE INTERSECTION POINT OF TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER...AS OF 3 AM IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS THE CENTER WOULD BE JUST WEST OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI...WELL DISPLACED FROM THE UPPER CIRCULATION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE INITIALIZED THE CENTER KATRINA TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AND THROUGH TIME ARE JUST TOO SLOW IN MOVING HER NORTHEASTWARD. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT KATRINA WILL TRACK THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TENNESSEE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY TODAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO BY EVENING. THIS IS A LITTLE BIT FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS THINKING AND LATEST TPC TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD BRING A GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY...ALTHOUGH SHOWING A DOWNSLOPING EFFECT IN THE QPF. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT GET VERY WARM TODAY UNDER AN OVERCAST CANOPY OF CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVING IN THIS MORNING. CURRENT FLOOD WATCH IS A GOOD ONE AND WILL LEAVE IN TACT. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS DUE TO STRONG SHEAR WITH HELICITY VALUES IN THE 100 TO 200 RANGE. THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF HEATING BUT THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH ROTATION. OTHERWISE THE HEAVY RAIN IS MAIN THREAT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDED 2 INCHES...AND TRAINING OF STORMS ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS. LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... OUR EXPECTED FASTER MOTION OF KATRINA AS COMPARED TO THE MODELS HAS IT MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY EARLY TONIGHT INTO EAST CENTRAL OHIO DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS...THE HEAVIEST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA WILL EXIT OUR REGION BY LATER TONIGHT... WITH SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS HANGING ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST DURING WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FOLLOW THE TRACK OF KATRINA...SO THAT SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA WOULD STILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAINS EARLY TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF WELL BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 143 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) AVIATION... THE STILL STRONG REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARM FRONTAL TYPE BOUNDARY EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT NORTH AND WEST AND BECOME ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO BY LATE MORNING. THE CENTER OF KATRINA WILL RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BECOMING MVFR IN CEILING BY AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN IFR IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLOOD WATCH FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. OH...FLOOD WATCH FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. KY...FLOOD WATCH FOR KYZ101>103-105 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. VA...FLOOD WATCH FOR VAZ003-004 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. && $$ AVIATION...HC 590 FXUS61 KCLE 301054 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 655 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .AVIATION (12Z-12Z)... IFR WL SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING AS RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. XPC LARGELY MVFR CONDS TDA IN WDSPRD RAIN AND BR/HZ AS WELL AS CIGS. RAFL WL TURN MOD TO HVY LATE AFTN AND/OR EVG AND THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. XPC CONDS DROPPING TO IFR AGN TNGT. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE (TODAY)... QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF AREA AND ADD SUCH WORDING TO PRODUCTS AND WEB. HAVE ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9AM FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...ANTICIPATING FOG WILL LIFT A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU THURSDAY)... EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO...WHILE MAIN FOCUS IS ON DETEORIATING REMNANTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE. AT THE SURFACE...A VERY WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM EASTERN MICHIGAN...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...WHICH WAS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WERE BEING PRIMED FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION...WITH NAM LAGGING BEHIND IN TIME AND SPACE WITH REGARDS TO EXACT PLACEMENT OF PRECIP AND WHEN IT ARRIVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UKMET ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 00Z GFS...INDICATING AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF 2-3 INCHES FROM MANSFIELD TO CLEVELAND AND THROUGH ERIE PA. THAT BEING SAID...BOTH GFS AND UKMET ARE SLIGHTLY TOO FAR WEST IN THEIR 6HR PROG AS COMPARED TO ACTUAL CONDITIONS AS OF 06Z. NOT A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE...BUT THIS COULD MEAN THAT THE SHARP CUTOFF OF PRECIP ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF STORM COULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AT THE MOMENT. CONSEQUENTLY...THIS WOULD ONLY FURTHER ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS OVER EXTREME EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA...THEREFORE AM PLANNING ON EXTENDING THE FLOOD WATCH INTO ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK THE STORM TAKES...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE A GOOD SOAKING RAIN OVER 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WILL REFRAIN FROM EXTENDING WATCH WESTWARD TO INCLUDE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY...AS IT LOOKS LIKE RAINFALL TOTALS IN THAT AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1 - 1.5 INCHES. IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL THREAT...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ON EAST SIDE OF STORM IN WARM SECTOR BECOME RATHER INTERESTING AFTER 18Z TODAY. WHILE CAPES ARE NOT HIGH...SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES INCREASE DRAMATICALLY IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT...ROUGHLY EAST OF A YOUNGSTOWN TO MANSFIELD LINE. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY STORMS IN THIS REGION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE...AND WHILE IT CANT BE SAID THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEFINITELY HAPPEN IN THIS AREA...IT CANT BE RULED OUT EITHER. DREW IN AN AREA OF THUNDER FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WARM SECTOR TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT FEEL THAT REMAINDER OF AREA WILL SEE MOSTLY SHOWERY TYPE ACTIVITY. STORM TO RAPIDLY DEPART AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY CLEARING NORTHWEST PA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FORECAST OF QUICKLY DRYING THINGS OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT IF CURRENT RUN OF GFS VERIFIES...EVEN THIS MAY BE TOO SLOW...AND MAY NEED TO DRY OUT NW PA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY WILL SEE RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. NO CHANGES MADE FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. LITTLE TO NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS THROUGHOUT SHORT TERM...GENERALLY NEAR MAV. && .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)... RELATIVELY QUIET EXTENDED WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. HAVE DRY FORECAST WITH PRIMARILY DIURNAL CLOUD COVER. AGAIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...WARMING TO AROUND/LOWER 80S BY MON. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...FLOOD WATCH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO TUE AFTRN THRU WED AFTRN. .PA...FLOOD WATCH ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES TUE AFTRN THRU WED AFTRN. $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...LEINS SHORT TERM...LEINS LONG TERM...OUDEMAN AVIATION...TK 404 FXUS66 KSEW 301105 AFDSEW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 350 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BRUSHING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM THURSDAY INTO THE VERY EARLY PART OF THE COMING WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .SHORT TERM...WEAK VORT HEADING INTO BC WITH PRECIP HEADING INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VANC ISL. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH...HOWEVER PLENTY OF HOLES FOR SOME SUN AT TIMES. THE PASSING TROUGH MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS TODAY...BIT FEEL INFLUENCE WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO LOWER POPS SOME CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE AREA AND REMOVE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BC THROUGH EARLY WED...FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT ANY POINT THROUGH THAT PERIOD FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD/QUARTER OF THE REGION. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER FOR THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE REGION. TEMPS THROUGH WED...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. CERNIGLIA .LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH ADVERTISED FOR THIS WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY RUNNING A TOUCH FASTER IN THE CURRENT RUNS. THIS IS WELL SUPPORTED ACROSS THE SPECTRUM OF MODELS. HAVE TWEAKED THE EXTENDED TO REMAIN IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE NOT SOMETHING TO TRY TO PIN DOWN AT THIS RANGE. THE IDEA OF A TROUGH AFFECTING WASHINGTON THIS WEEKEND IS FAIRLY SOLID. THE QUESTION WILL REMAIN WHICH 24-48 HOUR PERIOD WILL BE MOST AFFECTED. AS "THEY" SAY.....STAY TUNED. CERNIGLIA && .AVIATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WRN WA AND WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TO FORM DURING THE EARLY MORNING...WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 12Z. THE STRATUS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...GIVING WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 20Z. WIND AT KSEA WILL BE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON ...SHIFTING TO NW THIS EVENING AND THEN LIGHT NE OVERNIGHT. MCDONNAL && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && .KATX...VCP21/CSR21 OPERATIONAL. $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE 385 FXUS66 KOTX 301132 AFDOTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA 430 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER EACH DAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AS WE ENTER INTO ANOTHER RIDGE/TROF CYCLE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER NOW RESIDES IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. AN IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE PLUME IS FEEDING THIS SYSTEM AND CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE BC COAST ALONG 50N. THE GFS AND NAM MODELS DID A FAIRLY GOOD JOB WITH INITIAL FIELDS AT 00 UTC. THE ETA HAD A FEW NOTED DISCREPANCIES. ADD TO THIS THE FACT THAT THE GFS LINES UP BETTER WITH SATELLITE FEATURES AT 06 UTC AND IT IS NOT HARD TO SEE WHY THE GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE. AS THE PATTERN PROGRESSES THROUGH THE WEEK THE ETA AND GFS DEVELOP DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. THE ETA SEEMS TO BE A BIT FASTER WITH THE TROF AS IT DROPS SOUTH AND TOWARD THE AREA. AGAIN WILL GO WITH THE GFS HERE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. SO..FOR TODAY EXPECT THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN. A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT IS PRODUCING A MID CLOUD DECK OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS SUBSIDENCE BECOMES MORE DOMINATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH YESTERDAYS HIGHS IN MOST LOCALS TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS NORTH OF SPOKANE AND C'DA. TEMPS HERE WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND COOLER LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE REBOUNDS. ON THURSDAY THE FASTER ETA BRINGS IN A BIT HIGHER POPS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THE SLOWER GFS HAS NEGLIGIBLE POPS AND WARMER TEMPS ON THURSDAY. AS DISCUSSED EARLIER WILL GO WITH THE SLOWER GFS. THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WITH TEMPS REACHING MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS AND NO PRECIPITATION MENTIONED. /LERICOS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INLAND NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST. /KOCH && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z WED. /KOCH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SPOKANE 72 47 77 50 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 COEUR D'ALENE 71 44 77 47 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 PULLMAN 70 43 78 46 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 LEWISTON 77 50 83 53 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 COLVILLE 71 42 79 45 84 46 / 10 0 0 0 0 10 SANDPOINT 71 42 74 45 78 45 / 10 0 0 0 0 10 KELLOGG 65 45 77 48 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 MOSES LAKE 78 47 81 50 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 WENATCHEE 75 54 81 57 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 OMAK 76 47 82 50 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. WA...NONE. && $$ 587 FXUS65 KTFX 301134 AFDTFX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 530 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION .DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT A SLOW WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER MAKE A RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN MONDAY. MOST AREAS WILL BE CLOSE TO 30 DEGREES COOLER TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO MONDAY AFTERNOONS TEMPERATURES. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT BY LATE EVENING AS A SURFACE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL NIGHT OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND A COLD NIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. HIGHER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY GO WELL BELOW FREEZING AGAIN. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR READINGS BY THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE OVER GLACIER PARK...WHERE THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND LIGHT. BRUSDA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. MOISTURE AND ANY TYPE OF FORCING IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AN UPPER TROF BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS PERIOD DETRACT FROM FORECAST CONFIDENCE. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE AND A COMPROMISE SOLUTION OF A WEAK...RELATIVELY DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING...COOLING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR...OR A LITTLE BELOW...SEASONAL AVERAGES. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES. EK && .AVIATION... UPDATED 1130Z. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z. CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 18Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 68 43 76 49 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 65 40 72 46 / 30 0 0 0 HLN 69 45 77 48 / 20 0 0 0 BZN 70 37 75 42 / 30 0 0 0 WEY 64 23 69 25 / 30 0 0 0 DLN 67 36 75 43 / 20 0 0 0 HVR 70 44 77 49 / 20 0 0 0 LWT 65 40 74 46 / 20 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BRUSDA LONG TERM...EMANUEL/EK AVIATION...EMANUEL WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS 032 FXUS66 KMTR 301136 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA 300 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 UPDATED AVIATION .DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING EAST INTO IDAHO AND UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING AND IN ITS WAKE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND GREAT BASIN. NORTHERLY GRADIENTS HAVE RAMPED UP SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY AND THE ACV-SFO GRADIENT IT 7.5MB AT 09Z WHILE THE E-W WMC-SFO GRADIENT HAS JUST TURNED OFFSHORE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE WMC-SFO GRADIENT IS 2.7MB AT 09Z BUT THE NAM AND GFS QUICKLY INCREASE THIS GRADIENT TO 8MB BY 15Z THIS MORNING. RAWS SITES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST BAY ARE JUST BEGINNING TO RECORD N- NNE WINDS AS HIGH AS 15 MPH WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 20S AT 09Z...BUT JUST TO THE NORTH IN LAKE COUNTY...KNOXVILLE CREEK RAWS IS REPORTING 17 MPH WIND WITH GUSTS TO 37 MPH. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND 15Z. WILL CONTINUE THE RFW IN NAPA COUNTY THROUGH 19Z TODAY AS THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED HERE...AND MONITOR EAST BAY RAWS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS EXCEEDING RED FLAG CRITERIA. MOST RAWS IN THE EAST BAY HAVE HAD RH'S AS HIGH AS THE LOW TO MID 40S OVERNIGHT AND SUSTAINED WINDS WILL NEED TO EXCEED 20 MPH TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA. ASIDE FROM FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE A CLEAR AND WARM DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG N-S GRADIENT HAS MIXED OUT THE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...80S AROUND THE SFO BAY AND LOW 90S WELL INLAND TODAY. LOCAL W-E (SFO-SAC) GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ONSHORE (1.7MB) AND WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO A LIGHT... LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE WARM AGAIN AS THE WMC-SFO GRADIENT REMAINS MODERATE OFFSHORE WITH ONLY A LITTLE COOLING ALONG THE COAST AS THE MARINE LAYER BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS REALLY SLACK OFF WED NIGHT AND THE NAM BL RH BRING A RETURN TO THE STRATUS IN EARNEST ALONG THE COAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE THE USUAL COOL FOGGY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WITH WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE CORE OF THE TROUGH WILL BE FARTHER NORTH AND OFFER A WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW...THAN THE CURRENT EVENT...IN ITS WAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...STRONG N-S GRADIENTS WILL KEEP ALL AREA TERMINALS CLEAR ALL DAY. LOCAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS THIS MORNING. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TDA...RED FLAG WARNING...FIRE WX ZONE 265 THROUGH NOON. SCA...PT REYES TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: KENNEDY MARINE/AVIATION: W PI NOAA'S NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO 195 FXUS63 KLOT 301148 AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 640 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS MORNING. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP EAST OF THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT. BUT SOME PRECIP MAY CLIP THE FAR SE SECTIONS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS GOING THERE. OTHERWISE SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST SIDE OF KATRINA MOVE THRU THE REGION. SFC PRESSURE STILL QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THE 00Z MODELS SHOW SO EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW INDIANA. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT IS THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH PUSHES THRU THE MIDWEST AND LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A SHOWER OR TWO NORTH INTO WI BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS HERE WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW THURS. MAIN AFFECT OF THIS FRONT WILL BE COOLER TEMPS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI...DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE 70S BUT BACK NEAR 80 OR THE LOWER 80S INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS FRI MORNING LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S POSSIBLY AN UPPER 40 AT THE TYPICAL COOL LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE CLOSE ON TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM THOUGH HIGHS NEAR 80 OR MAYBE EVEN ONLY UPPER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA TODAY WITH THICKENING CLOUD COVER. && AVIATION... THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OHIO BY 06 UTC. THIS IS USING THE GFS MODEL. THE GFS HAS THE CLOSEST SOLUTION OF STORM MOVEMENT SO FAR. THE WORKSTATION ETA MODEL SHOWS THE WIND BECOMING NORTH BY 06 UTC WEDNESDAY. BEFORE THEN THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BE NORTHEAST. WILL RAISE THE SPEED TO 14 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS KATRINA MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ACARS SOUNDING AT RFD 0807 UTC SHOWS AN INVERSION AROUND 947 MB. WE EXPECT THE SURFACE WIND TO INCREASE AFTER 15 UTC WHEN THE INVERSION BREAKS. && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LK MI...NONE. $$ 868 FXUS65 KABQ 301144 CCA AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 315 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 CORRECTED WORDING IN LAST PARAGRAPH. .DISCUSSION... QUIET WEATHER DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT AS UPPER HIGH REMAINS NEAR THE VICINITY OF FAR SRN CA/NRN BAJA OF CA. RIDGE AXIS IS POSITIONED ALONG A LINE FROM SW AZ/FOUR CORNERS REGION/SRN CO. THE AXIS WILL PIVOT SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY/EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES AT 500MB WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS CLIMBING ON AN ORDER OF 5C TO 15C. THERMODYNAMIC/MOISTURE PROFILES IN CONJUNCTION WITH LESS IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA WILL WARRANT NO POPS. THE ONLY CAVEAT ATTM IS A WEAK VORT MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN N TO NW FLOW ALOFT...TRACKING THROUGH THE E/C AND SE PLAINS. THE DAY CREW MAY NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE EASTERN PLAINS OR FIVE TO TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN MON. HOWEVER... DID GO BELOW FOUS GUIDANCE AS THEY HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO HIGH THE LAST FEW DAYS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE SIGNALS SUCH AS DOWNSLOPING COMPRESSIONAL WINDS...LOWER DEW POINTS OR SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE 500MB TEMPERATURES BEFORE REALIZING FULL POTENTIAL OF FOUS NUMBERS. PATTERN CHANGES FOR WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE INCREASE IS NOT PROGGED BY THE MODELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY... HOWEVER WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE N/NE OVER THE NE PLAINS. AN EAST CANYON WIND OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR QPF WILL BE IN AREA OF BEST CONVERGENCE OR ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS. IN ADDITION...A WEAK VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE ANY VERTICAL LIFT TO PROVIDE ISOLATED...POSSIBLE LOW END SCAT COVERAGE...OVER THE NE HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THE WRN MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO REPLENISH MOISTURE PROFILES. INHERITED TOKEN TEN POPS LOOK FINE FOR THESE ZONES. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WHICH WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE. THE NE QUADRANT OF THE STATE WILL EXPERIENCE THE BIGGEST DEVIATION IN READINGS FROM TUE INTO WED...WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY ANTICIPATED THUR. THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE BEST DAY FOR PCPN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AS UPPER HIGH DISPLACES ITSELF OVER CENTRAL/GFS OR SRN NM/NAM. THE AREA WILL BE IN RECYCLE MODE...AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED...RIPPLES OF ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH THE W/NRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE. NONETHELESS...IT APPEARS THE BEST THREAT SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD COVERAGE FOR NOW. REMAINDER OF EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AS DGEX/GFSLR FAIL TO COMPROMISE ON LOCATION OF UPPER HIGH. GFSLR ADVERTISING THAT THE RIDGE CENTROID WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE STATE WHICH TAPS INTO MONSOON MOISTURE OVER NW OLD MEXICO. DGEX SUGGESTING A RECYCLING PATTERN AS UPPER HIGH REMAINS PARKED OVER NEW MEXICO. WITH THIS IN MIND...CAN NOT PROVIDE ADDITIONAL VALUE TO INHERITED POP GRIDS ATTM. DPORTER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 95 56 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 90 48 86 49 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 89 49 87 50 / 0 0 0 10 GLENWOOD........................ 94 54 93 57 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 82 41 79 42 / 0 0 10 20 LOS ALAMOS...................... 88 51 82 51 / 0 0 0 20 RED RIVER....................... 78 38 73 38 / 0 0 20 20 TAOS............................ 88 45 82 48 / 0 0 10 20 SANTA FE........................ 88 52 85 52 / 0 0 0 20 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 91 54 87 54 / 0 0 0 20 ESPANOLA........................ 93 51 89 52 / 0 0 0 20 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 93 65 91 62 / 0 0 0 10 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 94 61 92 58 / 0 0 0 10 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 92 62 90 59 / 0 0 0 10 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 94 63 92 61 / 0 0 0 10 SOCORRO......................... 94 62 91 60 / 0 0 0 10 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 87 54 84 53 / 0 0 10 20 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 90 49 86 49 / 0 0 10 20 CARRIZOZO....................... 90 58 88 56 / 0 0 0 10 RUIDOSO......................... 84 53 81 49 / 0 0 10 10 RATON........................... 88 47 77 48 / 0 0 10 20 LAS VEGAS....................... 87 49 78 48 / 0 0 10 20 ROY............................. 87 56 78 53 / 0 0 10 20 CLAYTON......................... 89 58 76 54 / 0 0 10 20 SANTA ROSA...................... 93 58 87 54 / 0 0 10 20 TUCUMCARI....................... 93 62 86 59 / 0 0 10 20 FORT SUMNER..................... 92 61 88 59 / 0 0 0 10 CLOVIS.......................... 91 61 88 60 / 0 0 0 10 PORTALES........................ 92 60 89 59 / 0 0 0 10 ROSWELL......................... 96 65 94 64 / 0 0 0 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 46 481 FXUS63 KDTX 301156 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 755 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 AVIATION... WEAK TROUGH LODGED OVER SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SEPARATES HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS TO THE SOUTH FROM SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER VALUES TO THE NORTH. HIGH DEW POINTS/WEAK CONVERGENCE IN SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MI SUPPORTING SOME MIST/FOG/STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING...WHEREAS A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT TO THE NORTH HAS PROMOTED MORE IN WAY OF RADIATION FOG. AT ANY RATE...FOG/MIST/STRATUS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE THINNING OUT TO VFR CONDITIONS. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH RAIN FROM KATRINA WILL GET...BUT BASED ON MODEL PERSISTENCE/CONSENSUS WILL RETAIN THE 4 MILES IN RAIN MENTION AT KDET/KDTW FROM 22Z UNTIL 06Z. EXPECT ENOUGH BEEFED UP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT TO SUPPORT MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES FROM 06Z ON DUE BOTH TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND MIST. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...ISSUED 350 AM EDT TUE SEE LITTLE REASON TO MAKE ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO EXISTING FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDED FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH LAST EVENING...AND MAY HELP DO SO AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM KATRINA LIFTS NORTH...ALTHOUGH HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW TROUGH GETTING ABSORBED INTO CIRCULATION FROM KATRINA. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN LAKES REGION HELD AT BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WRFXX WINDS TENDING ONLY SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN GFS...AND SOME SORT OF BLEND OF THESE TWO MODELS PROBABLY IN ORDER...GIVEN BETTER CONTINUITY OF LATE THAN NAM. AT 500 MB...LOW JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY MOVING LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE KATRINA MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN LAKES REGION. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CREEPING NORTH INTO SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND RESIDING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH MODEST BULGING NORTHWARD INTO AREA OF THETA E RIDGE. FRINGE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA LIFT LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT MOST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH WRFXX AND GFS NOT SHOWING MUCH SUCH LIFT FOR SOUTHEAST MI. MUCH OF FORECAST AREA IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300 MB JET LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT....THOUGH...AND VERY MODEST 850 TO 500 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE CLIPPING SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS WELL...WITH MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN PLACE. THUS...WILL LEAVE IN CURRENT TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION. WILL TWEAK WORDING A TAD FOR LESS EMPHASIS ON THUNDER...HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AT BEST. && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ISSUED 350 AM EDT TUE THE EFFECTS OF KATRINA WILL FADE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION IS SLATED FOR ARRIVAL LATE THURSDAY...WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS IN ITS WAKE. THE GFS HAS TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP NORTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKES REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY-LHZ441-LHZ442- LHZ443...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ422-LCZ460...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. && $$ AVIATION...DWD SHORT TERM...DWD LONG TERM....MANN 333 FXUS61 KBOX 301200 AAA AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 758 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .MESOSCALE UPDATE... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL NOW OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A MARSHFIELD MA TO WILLIMANTIC CT LINE. SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY SEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING EVEN A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS. CURRENTLY SOME SITES IN THIS REGION ARE RECEIVING 1 TO 2 INCHES OR RAIN IN AN HOUR INCLUDING THE NEW BEDFORD ASOS. NAM MODEL CONTINUED TO SHOW THIS AREA RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALTHOUGH IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND BUMP THE ENTIRE REGION UP TO CATEGORICAL POPS AND REALLY INCREASE QPF AMOUNTS INCLUDING HEAVY RAIN FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. ALSO...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD STATEMENT FOR MINOR FLOODING OVER THIS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. FRANK -------------------------------------------------------------------- .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND...HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO THOSE AREAS AS A NARROW BOUNDARY HAS REMAINED THERE WITH WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS TO GET HEAVY DOWNPOURS. EVIDENCE...PROVIDENCE REPORTED 0.88" IN AN HOUR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WFO BOX RECEIVED 0.52" IN 1/2 HOUR. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 'ONLY' REPORTED PW READINGS OF 1.5" TO 1.75"...BUT EXPECT THOSE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AROUND 2" PW VALUES BY LATE THIS MORNING... RANGING UP TO 2.5" ON THE 00Z GFS. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING BAND OF RAINFALL REMAINING OVER EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO THE EAST BAY OF RHODE ISLAND...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF RAINFALL WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS /SOME LIGHTNING SEEN/ ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS AREA HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...THOUGH THE NAM SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE EASTERN BAND OF RAINFALL BETTER THAN THE GFS. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT CATEGORICAL FOR EASTERN MASS /EXCEPT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS/ AND RHODE ISLAND. INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT LIKELY ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS... WHICH IS FURTHEST AWAY FROM BEST DYNAMICS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH KATRINA BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. MOS TEMP GUIDANCE WAS VERY CLOSE THIS MORNING...SO USED A BLEND. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... MAIN CONCERN IS IN WED TO THU TIMEFRAME. GFS OFFERS BETTER SOLUTION AS IT TAKES KATRINA'S REMNANTS W OF NEW ENGLAND...SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS INTO WED NIGHT. PINPOINTING AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL IS DIFFICULT WITH TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT BY FAR SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN/NORTHERN MA ARE FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICALLY WITH A TRACK W OF NEW ENGLAND. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...BUT IT WILL TAKE TIME TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. WE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS A BIT LONGER WED NIGHT AND DELAYED CLEARING A BIT...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE MADE THU AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND BRINGS A LONG STRETCH OF DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE MAINLY MVFR...THOUGH VARIABLE TO IFR ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IN HEAVY SHOWERS. IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SOME AREAS ARE VFR ACROSS NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO LAST. EXPECT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH AREA OF RAIN MOVING SE INTO NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING...WITH THE OFF AND ON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO RHODE ISLAND. EXPECT ALL TAF LOCATIONS TO BE IFR WITH CEILINGS AOB 1000 FEET BY 00Z. && .MARINE... IN THE SHORT TERM...SEAS AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS 3-4 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 5 FEET AT GEORGES BANK BUOY /44008/. EVEN WITH S-SE WINDS AT 10-15 KTS...SHOULD FINALLY REALIZE 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS TODAY WITH LONG TERM ONSHORE FETCH. EXPECT SEAS... MAINLY S-SE SWELLS...TO SLOWLY PROGRESS TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT. IN THE LONGER TERM...WE STILL HAVE THE QUESTION OF GALE FORCE WINDS WED ESPECIALLY ON S COASTAL WATERS AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA TRACK W OF NEW ENGLAND. PREFERRED GFS SOLUTION BRINGS 40-45KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS WATERS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 35-40KT WINDS NOT TOO FAR OFF DECK. WE DO EXPECT A DECENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO BE PRESENT WHICH WILL PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN...BUT EVEN THERE 30-35KT GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. SINCE WE STILL ARE NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN TRACK/INTENSITY OF KATRINA'S REMNANTS AS THEY PASS TO OUR W...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON GALES AND KEEP WINDS IN HIGHER END OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BEHIND FRONT SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR GUSTS TO CONTINUE INTO THU. && .HYDROLOGY... HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY INTO WED NIGHT SHOULD FALL IN SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MA...WHERE WE COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 2-3"...AND 1-2" TOTALS ARE LIKELY DOWN INTO I-95 CORRIDOR BEFORE AMOUNTS TAPER OFF QUICKLY TO 0.50" ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLOODING ISSUES...ASIDE FROM MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY BENEFICIAL FOR RI AND SE MA AND THESE AREAS ARE OFF TO A GOOD START THIS MORNING! && .CLIMATOLOGY... FYI...THE RUN FOR THE DRIEST SUMMER SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN PROVIDENCE /1904/ HAS GONE BY THE BOARDS. PVD AIRPORT RECEIVED 0.85" OF PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY...THEN GOT 0.88" BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AM THIS MORNING. SO...UP TO 4 AM...THE SUMMER TOTAL IS 4.98"...BUT EXPECT MORE RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE RECORD DRIEST SUMMER TOTAL OF 4.16" SET IN 1907 REMAINS IN PLACE. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ230-236 FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ231>234 FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ235-237-250 FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ254-255 FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY. && $$ MESOSCALE UPDATE...FRANK/AED SHORT TERM/AVIATION/CLIMATOLOGY...EVT LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...JWD 220 FXUS61 KBOX 301212 AAB AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 812 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .2ND MESOSCALE UPDATE... FLASH FLOOD WARNING ISSUED FOR BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTY. GROUND TRUTH REPORTS INDICATE THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED 4 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN. WE HAVE CALLED LAW ENFORCEMENT AND THEY REPORT MANY ROADS HAVE BEEN CLOSED NEW BEDFORD. DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE TORRENTIAL RAIN TRAINING ACROSS THIS REGION WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. FRANK -------------------------------------------------------------------- .MESOSCALE UPDATE... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL NOW OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A MARSHFIELD MA TO WILLIMANTIC CT LINE. SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY SEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING EVEN A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS. CURRENTLY SOME SITES IN THIS REGION ARE RECEIVING 1 TO 2 INCHES OR RAIN IN AN HOUR INCLUDING THE NEW BEDFORD ASOS. NAM MODEL CONTINUED TO SHOW THIS AREA RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALTHOUGH IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND BUMP THE ENTIRE REGION UP TO CATEGORICAL POPS AND REALLY INCREASE QPF AMOUNTS INCLUDING HEAVY RAIN FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. ALSO...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD STATEMENT FOR MINOR FLOODING OVER THIS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. FRANK -------------------------------------------------------------------- .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND...HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO THOSE AREAS AS A NARROW BOUNDARY HAS REMAINED THERE WITH WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS TO GET HEAVY DOWNPOURS. EVIDENCE...PROVIDENCE REPORTED 0.88" IN AN HOUR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WFO BOX RECEIVED 0.52" IN 1/2 HOUR. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 'ONLY' REPORTED PW READINGS OF 1.5" TO 1.75"...BUT EXPECT THOSE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AROUND 2" PW VALUES BY LATE THIS MORNING... RANGING UP TO 2.5" ON THE 00Z GFS. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING BAND OF RAINFALL REMAINING OVER EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO THE EAST BAY OF RHODE ISLAND...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF RAINFALL WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS /SOME LIGHTNING SEEN/ ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS AREA HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...THOUGH THE NAM SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE EASTERN BAND OF RAINFALL BETTER THAN THE GFS. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT CATEGORICAL FOR EASTERN MASS /EXCEPT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS/ AND RHODE ISLAND. INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT LIKELY ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS... WHICH IS FURTHEST AWAY FROM BEST DYNAMICS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH KATRINA BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. MOS TEMP GUIDANCE WAS VERY CLOSE THIS MORNING...SO USED A BLEND. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... MAIN CONCERN IS IN WED TO THU TIMEFRAME. GFS OFFERS BETTER SOLUTION AS IT TAKES KATRINA'S REMNANTS W OF NEW ENGLAND...SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS INTO WED NIGHT. PINPOINTING AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL IS DIFFICULT WITH TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT BY FAR SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN/NORTHERN MA ARE FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICALLY WITH A TRACK W OF NEW ENGLAND. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...BUT IT WILL TAKE TIME TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. WE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS A BIT LONGER WED NIGHT AND DELAYED CLEARING A BIT...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE MADE THU AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND BRINGS A LONG STRETCH OF DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE MAINLY MVFR...THOUGH VARIABLE TO IFR ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IN HEAVY SHOWERS. IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SOME AREAS ARE VFR ACROSS NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO LAST. EXPECT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH AREA OF RAIN MOVING SE INTO NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING...WITH THE OFF AND ON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO RHODE ISLAND. EXPECT ALL TAF LOCATIONS TO BE IFR WITH CEILINGS AOB 1000 FEET BY 00Z. && .MARINE... IN THE SHORT TERM...SEAS AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS 3-4 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 5 FEET AT GEORGES BANK BUOY /44008/. EVEN WITH S-SE WINDS AT 10-15 KTS...SHOULD FINALLY REALIZE 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS TODAY WITH LONG TERM ONSHORE FETCH. EXPECT SEAS... MAINLY S-SE SWELLS...TO SLOWLY PROGRESS TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT. IN THE LONGER TERM...WE STILL HAVE THE QUESTION OF GALE FORCE WINDS WED ESPECIALLY ON S COASTAL WATERS AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA TRACK W OF NEW ENGLAND. PREFERRED GFS SOLUTION BRINGS 40-45KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS WATERS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 35-40KT WINDS NOT TOO FAR OFF DECK. WE DO EXPECT A DECENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO BE PRESENT WHICH WILL PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN...BUT EVEN THERE 30-35KT GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. SINCE WE STILL ARE NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN TRACK/INTENSITY OF KATRINA'S REMNANTS AS THEY PASS TO OUR W...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON GALES AND KEEP WINDS IN HIGHER END OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BEHIND FRONT SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR GUSTS TO CONTINUE INTO THU. && .HYDROLOGY... HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY INTO WED NIGHT SHOULD FALL IN SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MA...WHERE WE COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 2-3"...AND 1-2" TOTALS ARE LIKELY DOWN INTO I-95 CORRIDOR BEFORE AMOUNTS TAPER OFF QUICKLY TO 0.50" ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLOODING ISSUES...ASIDE FROM MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY BENEFICIAL FOR RI AND SE MA AND THESE AREAS ARE OFF TO A GOOD START THIS MORNING! && .CLIMATOLOGY... FYI...THE RUN FOR THE DRIEST SUMMER SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN PROVIDENCE /1904/ HAS GONE BY THE BOARDS. PVD AIRPORT RECEIVED 0.85" OF PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY...THEN GOT 0.88" BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AM THIS MORNING. SO...UP TO 4 AM...THE SUMMER TOTAL IS 4.98"...BUT EXPECT MORE RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE RECORD DRIEST SUMMER TOTAL OF 4.16" SET IN 1907 REMAINS IN PLACE. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ230-236 FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ231>234 FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ235-237-250 FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ254-255 FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY. && $$ MESOSCALE UPDATE...FRANK/AED SHORT TERM/AVIATION/CLIMATOLOGY...EVT LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...JWD 218 FXUS64 KLIX 301218 AAA AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 715 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR COASTAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH LATE MORNING...BUT EXPECT TO DROP IT BY MID DAY AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AND WE COME OFF OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. WE HAVE INCLUDED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE AREA OF LAKE PONCHARTRAIN DUE TO CONTINUED TIDAL LAKE FLOODING IN THE WAKE OF THE HURRICANE (REPORTED LEVEE BREAKS IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA). && SPECIAL NOTICE TO MEDIA AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT/STORM SPOTTERS...ALL AGENCIES IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI THAT NEED TO CONVEY CRITICAL INFORMATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS ARE ASKED TO PLEASE CONTACT NWS MOBILE AT 251-633-2471...OR 251-633-0921. COMMUNICATIONS REMAIN OUT OF SERVICE AT NWS NEW ORLEANS. ALL WATCH...WARNING AND FORECAST INFORMATION IS BEING GENERATED AND SENT FROM NWS MOBILE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 92 73 95 71 / 10 10 10 10 BTR 94 73 95 72 / 10 10 10 10 MSY 92 79 94 77 / 30 10 10 10 GPT 90 75 93 75 / 30 10 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWEST FACING SHORELINES IN SE LA AS WELL AS FOR TIDAL FLOODING SOUTH SHORE LAKE PONCHARTRAIN INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL ZONES EXCEPT LAKES PONCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. MS...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING COASTAL AREAS CONTINUES. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL ZONES. && $$ WFO MOBILE FORECASTER ID=05 634 FXUS66 KPDT 301219 AAA AFDPDT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR 430 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY W-SW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY HAS EXITED THE REGION...AND WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGE (I.E. IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S). MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS...AND MAYBE A RECORD LOW OR TWO WILL BE REACHED. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. SMITH .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO SOME AREAS...MAINLY ALONG THE CASCADES EAST SLOPES. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPES ZONE (WAZ025). ELSEWHERE THE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND DOWN SLOPE WINDS OFF THE CASCADES WILL INHIBIT PRECIPITATION. THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN RETURN BY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. 88 && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND AN UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING RESULTING IN CONTINUED DECREASING WINDS WITH JUST LIGHT WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES AND TWEB ROUTES. THERE ARE ALSO SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE OUT ALLOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER ALL TAF SITES AND TWEB ROUTES BY THIS EVENING. 88 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 76 49 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 78 54 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 82 48 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 78 46 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 79 47 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 75 48 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 75 37 82 40 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 76 43 81 46 / 0 0 0 0 5J0 78 42 84 44 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 78 54 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. && $$ TI:GGG FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON 85/88/88 714 FXUS61 KBOX 301219 AAB AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 812 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .2ND MESOSCALE UPDATE... FLASH FLOOD WARNING ISSUED FOR BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTY. GROUND TRUTH REPORTS INDICATE THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED 4 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN. WE HAVE CALLED LAW ENFORCEMENT AND THEY REPORT MANY ROADS HAVE BEEN CLOSED NEW BEDFORD. DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE TORRENTIAL RAIN TRAINING ACROSS THIS REGION WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. RADAR WAS ALSO SWITCHED INTO TROPICAL Z/R RELATIONSHIP AT 730 FOR BETTER RAINFALL ESTIMATION. FRANK -------------------------------------------------------------------- .MESOSCALE UPDATE... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL NOW OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A MARSHFIELD MA TO WILLIMANTIC CT LINE. SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY SEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING EVEN A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS. CURRENTLY SOME SITES IN THIS REGION ARE RECEIVING 1 TO 2 INCHES OR RAIN IN AN HOUR INCLUDING THE NEW BEDFORD ASOS. NAM MODEL CONTINUED TO SHOW THIS AREA RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALTHOUGH IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND BUMP THE ENTIRE REGION UP TO CATEGORICAL POPS AND REALLY INCREASE QPF AMOUNTS INCLUDING HEAVY RAIN FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. ALSO...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD STATEMENT FOR MINOR FLOODING OVER THIS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. FRANK -------------------------------------------------------------------- .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND...HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO THOSE AREAS AS A NARROW BOUNDARY HAS REMAINED THERE WITH WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS TO GET HEAVY DOWNPOURS. EVIDENCE...PROVIDENCE REPORTED 0.88" IN AN HOUR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WFO BOX RECEIVED 0.52" IN 1/2 HOUR. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 'ONLY' REPORTED PW READINGS OF 1.5" TO 1.75"...BUT EXPECT THOSE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AROUND 2" PW VALUES BY LATE THIS MORNING... RANGING UP TO 2.5" ON THE 00Z GFS. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING BAND OF RAINFALL REMAINING OVER EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO THE EAST BAY OF RHODE ISLAND...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF RAINFALL WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS /SOME LIGHTNING SEEN/ ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS AREA HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...THOUGH THE NAM SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE EASTERN BAND OF RAINFALL BETTER THAN THE GFS. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT CATEGORICAL FOR EASTERN MASS /EXCEPT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS/ AND RHODE ISLAND. INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT LIKELY ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS... WHICH IS FURTHEST AWAY FROM BEST DYNAMICS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH KATRINA BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. MOS TEMP GUIDANCE WAS VERY CLOSE THIS MORNING...SO USED A BLEND. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... MAIN CONCERN IS IN WED TO THU TIMEFRAME. GFS OFFERS BETTER SOLUTION AS IT TAKES KATRINA'S REMNANTS W OF NEW ENGLAND...SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS INTO WED NIGHT. PINPOINTING AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL IS DIFFICULT WITH TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT BY FAR SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN/NORTHERN MA ARE FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICALLY WITH A TRACK W OF NEW ENGLAND. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...BUT IT WILL TAKE TIME TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. WE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS A BIT LONGER WED NIGHT AND DELAYED CLEARING A BIT...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE MADE THU AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND BRINGS A LONG STRETCH OF DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE MAINLY MVFR...THOUGH VARIABLE TO IFR ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IN HEAVY SHOWERS. IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SOME AREAS ARE VFR ACROSS NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO LAST. EXPECT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH AREA OF RAIN MOVING SE INTO NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING...WITH THE OFF AND ON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO RHODE ISLAND. EXPECT ALL TAF LOCATIONS TO BE IFR WITH CEILINGS AOB 1000 FEET BY 00Z. && .MARINE... IN THE SHORT TERM...SEAS AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS 3-4 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 5 FEET AT GEORGES BANK BUOY /44008/. EVEN WITH S-SE WINDS AT 10-15 KTS...SHOULD FINALLY REALIZE 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS TODAY WITH LONG TERM ONSHORE FETCH. EXPECT SEAS... MAINLY S-SE SWELLS...TO SLOWLY PROGRESS TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT. IN THE LONGER TERM...WE STILL HAVE THE QUESTION OF GALE FORCE WINDS WED ESPECIALLY ON S COASTAL WATERS AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA TRACK W OF NEW ENGLAND. PREFERRED GFS SOLUTION BRINGS 40-45KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS WATERS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 35-40KT WINDS NOT TOO FAR OFF DECK. WE DO EXPECT A DECENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO BE PRESENT WHICH WILL PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN...BUT EVEN THERE 30-35KT GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. SINCE WE STILL ARE NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN TRACK/INTENSITY OF KATRINA'S REMNANTS AS THEY PASS TO OUR W...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON GALES AND KEEP WINDS IN HIGHER END OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BEHIND FRONT SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR GUSTS TO CONTINUE INTO THU. && .HYDROLOGY... HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY INTO WED NIGHT SHOULD FALL IN SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MA...WHERE WE COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 2-3"...AND 1-2" TOTALS ARE LIKELY DOWN INTO I-95 CORRIDOR BEFORE AMOUNTS TAPER OFF QUICKLY TO 0.50" ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLOODING ISSUES...ASIDE FROM MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY BENEFICIAL FOR RI AND SE MA AND THESE AREAS ARE OFF TO A GOOD START THIS MORNING! && .CLIMATOLOGY... FYI...THE RUN FOR THE DRIEST SUMMER SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN PROVIDENCE /1904/ HAS GONE BY THE BOARDS. PVD AIRPORT RECEIVED 0.85" OF PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY...THEN GOT 0.88" BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AM THIS MORNING. SO...UP TO 4 AM...THE SUMMER TOTAL IS 4.98"...BUT EXPECT MORE RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE RECORD DRIEST SUMMER TOTAL OF 4.16" SET IN 1907 REMAINS IN PLACE. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ230-236 FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ231>234 FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ235-237-250 FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ254-255 FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY. && $$ MESOSCALE UPDATE...FRANK/AED SHORT TERM/AVIATION/CLIMATOLOGY...EVT LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...JWD 406 FXUS66 KMFR 301229 AFDMFR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 230 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...500MB HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND BEGINNING TODAY AS EAST PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 850MB TEMPS WILL RISE 5-7 DEGREES OVER MONDAY THEN ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE THURSDAY. THIS TRANSLATES INTO MAX TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE MID 80S FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY TODAY AND AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH...NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...WILL EXTEND NORTH TO THE SOUTH OREGON COAST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE CASCADES BY LATER THURSDAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW STRIP OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG MOST OF THE COAST AND SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS INLAND MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN. THESE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND COASTAL FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT LESS OVERALL CLOUDINESS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. .EXTENDED...THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN A RIDGE NEAR 110W AND A TROUGH OFFSHORE NEAR 140W FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS VERY SIMILAR IN MOVING THE TROUGH EASTWARD TO NEAR 130W SATURDAY THEN INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY. RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING OVER THE UMPQUA BASIN AND ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 0-60 NM CAPE BLANCO TO CALIF BORDER. CA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 0-60 NM CALIF BORDER TO PT ST GEORGE. && ALSO VISIT THE NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD $$ HOLTZ 445 FXUS64 KBMX 301235 AFDBMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 735 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE... QUICK UPDATE TO REPLACE THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH AN AREA WIDE WIND ADVISORY. WINDS REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE ONLY 1-2 THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 25 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. VIRTUALLY ANY MIXING DURING THE MORNING HOURS WOULD RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS AT THE SURFACE. FIRST RESPONDERS...AND INDIVIDUALS PARTICIPATING IN CLEANUP EFFORTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION. FURTHERMORE...CREWS USING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES WILL BE AT A HIGHER RISK. EAST TO WEST ORIENTED ROADWAYS WILL BE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE. AFTER NOON...SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL NOON CDT. && $$ 12/07 000 FXUS63 KFGF 301247 AAA AFDFGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 411 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRIDAY)... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS/EASTERN MT AND WY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE RESULTED KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES WARMER AND ALLOWING THE DEW POINTS TO HOVER IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 40S. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE HEAT. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION TO LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CU TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN MT/WY AND MOVE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT ALITTLE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. FRONT SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY EXITING THE SOUTHERN CWA AFTER 00Z THU WITH SOME PRECIPITATION LINGERING IN THE NORTH AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK. SHOWALTERS STILL REMAIN MOSTLY POSITIVE ON THE GFS WITH THE NAM SHOWING ONLY -2 TO -4. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO INITIATE OVER CENTRAL ND WED EVENING WHERE THE BEST ML CAPE 1000-2000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND +50 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR EXIST WHICH WILL RIDE EAST ALONG THE FRONT INTO EASTERN ND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 850 MB JET DOES INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING TO 35 KTS OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY HOWEVER...THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS SHOWN TO STAY WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. VERY FEW CHANGES MADE OVERALL FORECAST THIS MORNING. MOSTLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND WINDS OVER ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. DID UP POPS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ALSO REMOVED POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHOWN TO BE DOMINATING MOST OF THE REGION. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE EXTEND. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ JDS 981 FXUS62 KTBW 301300 AFDTBW WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 900 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE N OVER TENN RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING SW WINDS THRU 30K FT TO KEEP WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. ISOLATED CONVECTION ALREADY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT ACTIVITY TO INCREASE TO SCATTERED LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS TO WARM TO AROUND NORMAL. MORNING SURF REPORTS STILL INDICATING 3 TO 5 FT BREAKING WAVES ALONG AREA BEACHES TO CREATE SOME DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT AND WATER CONDITIONS. SW FLOW HAS GULF WATER 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG NATURE COAST ATTM...THESE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THRU THE DAY. LATEST FCST ON TRACK NO CHANGES EXPECTED. && .MARINE...GRADIENT TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER N OF THE AREA. LATEST BUOY REPORTS SHOWING WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY WEAKENING WITH SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS AND 8 FT SEAS IN SE GULF. SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TONIGHT. CURRENT FCST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES EXPECTED. && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR THE ENTIRE SUNCOAST FROM LEVY TO LEE COUNTY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60 NM. $$ RD 052 FXUS61 KBGM 301314 AAA AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 915 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)... RAINFALL ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ACROSS SOTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. 06Z GFS KEEPS THIS BOUNDARY BASICALLY IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE MOVEMENT OF THIS BOUNDARY. NO OTHER CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. PREVIOUS DISC... STRONG UL JET HAS HELPED SPARK LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON BACK EDGE OF PRECIP AREA. SOME OF THESE HAVE DEVELOPED INTERESTING ROTATIONAL SIGNATURES, INDICATIVE OF THE VERY FAVORABLE LL SHEAR. HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND STORMS HAVE ONLY APPROACHED SPS CRITERIA. A TRICKY START TODAY AS THERE ARE SEVERAL WX ELEMENTS TO DEAL WITH. THE PRECIP LINE IS TRACKING EAST, AND THE SAT IR IS CONFIRMING MODEL FORECASTS WHICH CLEAR SKIES BEHIND IT OVER NW CWA. THINK A GOOD DEAL OF MIST AND FOG WILL BE LEFT BEHIND FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK OVER SE WHERE PRECIP AREA WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING OUT. GIVEN THE SURPRISING ORGANIZATION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT, AM INCLINED TO AGREE WITH SPC ASSESSMENT THAT THERE IS SVR POTENTIAL OVER NE PA LATER TODAY. ADDING A LITTLE DIURNAL HEATING TO AN ALREADY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MAY DO THE TRICK AS BANDS MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CWA. TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...KATRINA REMNANTS WILL SPREAD A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION. NAM AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST STRONGEST BANDS COULD FORM OVER NORTHERN CWA BACK THROUGH FINGER LAKES...AND THIS WILL BE THE AREA TO WATCH FOR FLOODING CONCERNS. OTHERWISE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WEST. DEFINITELY CONCERN FOR SEVERE ON WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS IT WILL ALL COME DOWN TO DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. IF WE IMPORT COOL ATLANTIC AIR SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER IF FLOW IS MORE SOUTHERLY THEN SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO COMBO OF IMPRESSIVE HODOGRAPH AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. CONTINUING SPS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. DJP && .LONG TERM (WED NIGHT - MONDAY)... UPPER LEVEL TROF AND MOISTURE FROM KATRINA WILL MOVE THROUGH CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS ON THURSDAY MORNING FOR ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH CHC POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES BUT WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE NE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RRM && .AVIATION (29/18-30/18)... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING WITH SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND AN OVERCAST CIRRUS DECK. THIS EVENING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DUE TO HAZE. AFTER 06Z, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND MIST ALONG WITH CIGS AROUND 2-3K FT. FURTHER NORTH (SYR/UCA), VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST BUT INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP 0812Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS. AFTER 12Z, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN HAZE. RRM && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .PA...NONE. $$ 483 FXUS61 KOKX 301323 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 930 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 ...MUCH NEEDED RAINS ON THE WAY... .NEAR TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS OVER THE PARCHED FAR EASTERN PORTION OF CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...1"+ ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FORK OF LI AND EASTERN NEW LONDON COUNTY. THIS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED...WEAK SHORTWAVE/VORT ENERGY ROUNDING UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY PROVIDING THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY SHRA/ISOLATED TSTMS. LIGHTER RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CWA IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE/VORT ENERGY WILL BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONVECTION IN THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY/CAT ACROSS THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TODAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY TSTM ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. OTHERWISE...THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY... EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS...WILL HELP TO STEER THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT TPC FORECAST TAKES THE REMNANT LOW WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRACKING UP INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WED NIGHT. TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GOOD CHANCES OF RAINFALL THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WORK UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH THERMAL FORCING IN A MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL A COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA WED EVENING. && .SHORT TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... AIRMASS BECOMES A BIT LESS STABLE ON WED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS... LIMITING THE TRUE POTENTIAL. 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ON WED ON THE ORDER OF 150 TO 200 M2/S2. THUS...LOW TOP CONVECTION WITH SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS. A LIMITING FACTOR THOUGH IS THAT THE REMNANT LOW WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH USUALLY LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. WHILE A LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST ON WED...ANY SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD WOULD FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. SIDING WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS WE ARE LOOKING FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z THU WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND A DRYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD HEATING OF THE SFC WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S THU AFT. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS IS THEN EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TODAY. THEREAFTER...THE GRADIENT AND LLJ SHOULD INCREASE DUE TO THE CLOSE PASS OF THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FOR SCA WINDS WED AND WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY RESPOND BY LATE TONIGHT BY GOING UP TO AROUND 5 FT...TOPPING OUT AROUND 8-9 FT WED EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE THURS ONWARD. && .AVIATION... VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS STILL IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE AT SOME TERMINALS BUT EXPECT THIS TO LIFT TO MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL LOWER THIS AT TIMES. VSBY OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. THIS EVENING BOTH CIGS AND VSBY WILL LOWER TO IFR OR LOWER AND REMAIN DOWN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .HYDROLOGY... EXPECT A QPF OF BETWEEN 1 AND 1 1/2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE TROPICAL NATURE OF AIRMASS...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...SINCE THE AREA HAS BEEN VERY DRY...WE DO NOT EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH RIVERS AND STREAMS. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE FORECAST HIGH HUMIDITY AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL PUT AN END TO THE RECENT FIRE WEATHER DANGER. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ 783 FXUS62 KMFL 301324 AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 924 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE...WITH KATRINA PULLING FURTHER NORTH IN TIME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. 12Z RAOB SOUNDINGS CAME IN WITH PWAT'S STILL ABOVE 2.15" AND GOOD INSTABILITY. MEAN FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT ONLY 4 KNOTS. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE FAIRLY SLOW TO THE NORTH WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NORTH. THIS IS WHAT IS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE AMENDED TO MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO THE WINDS AND WAVEHEIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM AND SKY, POPS AND WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM TO MATCH MEXMOS BETTER. THESE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT GRIDS WILL BE SENT OUT SHORTLY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... DISCUSSION...RAPIDLY WEAKENING KATRINA MOVING FROM LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TOWARD TN/OH VALLEYS AND EVENTUALLY INTO E CANADA. ATLC RIDGE SURFACE/ALOFT NOW BUILDING INTO THE FLA STRAITS WILL MOVE OVER THE FLA PENINSULA...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER CENTRAL FLA AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FLA STRAITS BY WED. KATRINA STEERED NE BY A TROUGH DIGGING INTO CENTRAL U.S. THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SE AND OVER S FLA THU...THEN OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND...STALLING BETWEEN ATLC RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DISPLACED E AND BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE W GULF N INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. GFS HINTED YESTERDAY...AND HAS NOW BECOME MORE DEFINITIVE IN PAST 2 RUNS...OF DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ON THE SURFACE TROUGH IN ATLC N OF THE N BAHAMAS. UPPER TROUGH PULLS NE LEAVING LOW BEHIND TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AS UPPER RIDGE IN CENTRAL U.S. BUILDS/LEANS NE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED...PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS ABOVE 2 INCHES AND WILL BE CONTINUALLY ADVECTED OVER S FLA ON SW FLOW. STEERING WINDS WEAK BUT ANY CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE NE TOWARD LAKE/PALM BEACH. TEMPS IN LOWER 90S BUT WITH HEAT INDICES IN TRIPLE DIGITS MOST AREAS WITH SOME AREAS BROACHING 105 INTERIOR AND E. EXTENDED PERIOD...THU THROUGH SUN...UPPER/SURFACE TROUGH AROUND S FLA AREA WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SW SO WARM TEMPS CONTINUE AND HIGH HEAT INDICES. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT PACKAGE. BUT LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ATLC ALONG SURFACE TROUGH UNDERWAY AND SOMETHING TO BE MONITORED. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT EXTENDED PERIOD (WEEKEND) UNTIL POTENTIAL ATLC DEVELOPMENT BECOMES MORE DEFINED. MARINE...THOUGH A WESTERLY SWELL STILL PRESENT...BUT DECREASING ..WINDS HAVE DECREASED AS WELL AND COMBINED SEAS GENERALLY 5 FEET OR LESS...WILL DROP ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY A SW/W FLOW LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TODAY THROUGH THU...BECOMING MORE VARIABLE AND LIGHTER AS AS TROUGH APPROACHES S FLA FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS. && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ 18 139 FXUS61 KOKX 301333 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE AND WWA SECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 930 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 ...MUCH NEEDED RAINS ON THE WAY... .NEAR TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS OVER THE PARCHED FAR EASTERN PORTION OF CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...1"+ ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FORK OF LI AND EASTERN NEW LONDON COUNTY. THIS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED...WEAK SHORTWAVE/VORT ENERGY ROUNDING UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY PROVIDING THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY SHRA/ISOLATED TSTMS. LIGHTER RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CWA IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE/VORT ENERGY WILL BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING CONVECTION IN THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY/CAT ACROSS THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TODAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY TSTM ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. OTHERWISE...THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY... EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS...WILL HELP TO STEER THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT TPC FORECAST TAKES THE REMNANT LOW WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRACKING UP INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WED NIGHT. TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GOOD CHANCES OF RAINFALL THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WORK UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH THERMAL FORCING IN A MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL A COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA WED EVENING. && .SHORT TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... AIRMASS BECOMES A BIT LESS STABLE ON WED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS... LIMITING THE TRUE POTENTIAL. 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ON WED ON THE ORDER OF 150 TO 200 M2/S2. THUS...LOW TOP CONVECTION WITH SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS. A LIMITING FACTOR THOUGH IS THAT THE REMNANT LOW WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH USUALLY LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. WHILE A LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST ON WED...ANY SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD WOULD FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS. SIDING WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS WE ARE LOOKING FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z THU WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK. WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND A DRYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD HEATING OF THE SFC WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S THU AFT. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS IS THEN EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .MARINE... WILL ISSUE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE OCEAN AS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ALREADY HAVE SEAS AT BUOYS AROUND 4 FT AND SHOULD INCREASE TO MARGINAL SCA SEAS FOR TONIGHT. GRADIENT AND LLJ SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER LATE TONIGHT INTO WED DUE TO THE CLOSE PASS OF THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FOR SCA WINDS WED AND WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND 8-9 FT WED EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE THURS ONWARD. && .AVIATION... VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS STILL IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE AT SOME TERMINALS BUT EXPECT THIS TO LIFT TO MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL LOWER THIS AT TIMES. VSBY OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. THIS EVENING BOTH CIGS AND VSBY WILL LOWER TO IFR OR LOWER AND REMAIN DOWN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .HYDROLOGY... EXPECT A QPF OF BETWEEN 1 AND 1 1/2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE TROPICAL NATURE OF AIRMASS...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...SINCE THE AREA HAS BEEN VERY DRY...WE DO NOT EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH RIVERS AND STREAMS. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE FORECAST HIGH HUMIDITY AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL PUT AN END TO THE RECENT FIRE WEATHER DANGER. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE OCEAN...ANZ350-353-355. && $$ 960 FXUS62 KCHS 301337 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 936 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED TROPICAL STORM KATRINA OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST BEGINNING TO AFFECT CWFA. KCHS 12Z SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR EXPECTED AFTERNOON CONDITIONS GIVES STRONG INSTABILITY WITH SOME SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SPC HAS NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWFA IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA BUT SEE NO REASON THE RISK COULD NOT EXTEND TO THE COAST. WILL UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO REFLECT POSSIBLE WIND DAMAGE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. HEAT INDICES ALREADY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES IN SPOTS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE ABOVE 80. A FEW SPOTS COULD EXCEED 105 BUT THIS SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY. && .MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS CLIMBING AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ALL OBSERVATIONS IN THE GEORGIA WATERS INDICATE 5 FT SEAS BUT AS THE SOUTHERLY FETCH INCREASES...EXPECT SOME 6 FOOTERS IN THE GEORGIA OUTER WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXERCISE CAUTION LOOKS GOOD IN THE COASTAL WATERS FOR 5 FT SEAS AND FOR 15 TO 20 KT WINDS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. FEW CHANGES PLANNED TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST. && .AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH GUSTS OF 22 TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AMZ374 THROUGH WED EVENING. && $$ SCW 981 FXUS61 KBOX 301337 AAC AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 936 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR... THE NAM MODEL HAS DONE AN EXCELLENT JOB SO FAR OF SHOWING WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN BANDS WOULD SETUP EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE METROPOLITAN AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE VERY HIGH AND WITH STRONG OMEGA SETTING UP OVER THIS REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING FELT IT WAS WORTH THE WATCH. EVEN THOUGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE HIGH BECAUSE OF THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...THEY DON'T HANDLE PROBLEMS THAT TYPICALLY OCCUR IN THE URBANIZED AREAS. FRANK --------------------------------------------------------------------- .2ND MESOSCALE UPDATE... FLASH FLOOD WARNING ISSUED FOR BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTY. GROUND TRUTH REPORTS INDICATE THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED 4 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN. WE HAVE CALLED LAW ENFORCEMENT AND THEY REPORT MANY ROADS HAVE BEEN CLOSED NEW BEDFORD. DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE TORRENTIAL RAIN TRAINING ACROSS THIS REGION WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. RADAR WAS ALSO SWITCHED INTO TROPICAL Z/R RELATIONSHIP AT 730 FOR BETTER RAINFALL ESTIMATION. FRANK -------------------------------------------------------------------- .MESOSCALE UPDATE... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL NOW OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A MARSHFIELD MA TO WILLIMANTIC CT LINE. SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY SEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING EVEN A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS. CURRENTLY SOME SITES IN THIS REGION ARE RECEIVING 1 TO 2 INCHES OR RAIN IN AN HOUR INCLUDING THE NEW BEDFORD ASOS. NAM MODEL CONTINUED TO SHOW THIS AREA RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALTHOUGH IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND BUMP THE ENTIRE REGION UP TO CATEGORICAL POPS AND REALLY INCREASE QPF AMOUNTS INCLUDING HEAVY RAIN FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST. ALSO...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD STATEMENT FOR MINOR FLOODING OVER THIS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. FRANK -------------------------------------------------------------------- .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND...HAS ALREADY PUSHED INTO THOSE AREAS AS A NARROW BOUNDARY HAS REMAINED THERE WITH WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS TO GET HEAVY DOWNPOURS. EVIDENCE...PROVIDENCE REPORTED 0.88" IN AN HOUR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WFO BOX RECEIVED 0.52" IN 1/2 HOUR. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 'ONLY' REPORTED PW READINGS OF 1.5" TO 1.75"...BUT EXPECT THOSE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AROUND 2" PW VALUES BY LATE THIS MORNING... RANGING UP TO 2.5" ON THE 00Z GFS. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING BAND OF RAINFALL REMAINING OVER EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO THE EAST BAY OF RHODE ISLAND...WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF RAINFALL WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS /SOME LIGHTNING SEEN/ ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS AREA HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...THOUGH THE NAM SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE EASTERN BAND OF RAINFALL BETTER THAN THE GFS. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT CATEGORICAL FOR EASTERN MASS /EXCEPT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS/ AND RHODE ISLAND. INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT LIKELY ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS... WHICH IS FURTHEST AWAY FROM BEST DYNAMICS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH KATRINA BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. MOS TEMP GUIDANCE WAS VERY CLOSE THIS MORNING...SO USED A BLEND. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... MAIN CONCERN IS IN WED TO THU TIMEFRAME. GFS OFFERS BETTER SOLUTION AS IT TAKES KATRINA'S REMNANTS W OF NEW ENGLAND...SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS INTO WED NIGHT. PINPOINTING AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL IS DIFFICULT WITH TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT BY FAR SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN/NORTHERN MA ARE FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICALLY WITH A TRACK W OF NEW ENGLAND. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...BUT IT WILL TAKE TIME TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. WE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS A BIT LONGER WED NIGHT AND DELAYED CLEARING A BIT...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE MADE THU AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND BRINGS A LONG STRETCH OF DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE MAINLY MVFR...THOUGH VARIABLE TO IFR ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IN HEAVY SHOWERS. IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SOME AREAS ARE VFR ACROSS NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO LAST. EXPECT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH AREA OF RAIN MOVING SE INTO NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING...WITH THE OFF AND ON SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO RHODE ISLAND. EXPECT ALL TAF LOCATIONS TO BE IFR WITH CEILINGS AOB 1000 FEET BY 00Z. && .MARINE... IN THE SHORT TERM...SEAS AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS 3-4 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 5 FEET AT GEORGES BANK BUOY /44008/. EVEN WITH S-SE WINDS AT 10-15 KTS...SHOULD FINALLY REALIZE 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS TODAY WITH LONG TERM ONSHORE FETCH. EXPECT SEAS... MAINLY S-SE SWELLS...TO SLOWLY PROGRESS TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT. IN THE LONGER TERM...WE STILL HAVE THE QUESTION OF GALE FORCE WINDS WED ESPECIALLY ON S COASTAL WATERS AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA TRACK W OF NEW ENGLAND. PREFERRED GFS SOLUTION BRINGS 40-45KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS WATERS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 35-40KT WINDS NOT TOO FAR OFF DECK. WE DO EXPECT A DECENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO BE PRESENT WHICH WILL PREVENT STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN...BUT EVEN THERE 30-35KT GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. SINCE WE STILL ARE NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN TRACK/INTENSITY OF KATRINA'S REMNANTS AS THEY PASS TO OUR W...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON GALES AND KEEP WINDS IN HIGHER END OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK BEHIND FRONT SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR GUSTS TO CONTINUE INTO THU. && .HYDROLOGY... HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY INTO WED NIGHT SHOULD FALL IN SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MA...WHERE WE COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 2-3"...AND 1-2" TOTALS ARE LIKELY DOWN INTO I-95 CORRIDOR BEFORE AMOUNTS TAPER OFF QUICKLY TO 0.50" ON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLOODING ISSUES...ASIDE FROM MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY BENEFICIAL FOR RI AND SE MA AND THESE AREAS ARE OFF TO A GOOD START THIS MORNING! && .CLIMATOLOGY... FYI...THE RUN FOR THE DRIEST SUMMER SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN PROVIDENCE /1904/ HAS GONE BY THE BOARDS. PVD AIRPORT RECEIVED 0.85" OF PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY...THEN GOT 0.88" BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AM THIS MORNING. SO...UP TO 4 AM...THE SUMMER TOTAL IS 4.98"...BUT EXPECT MORE RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE RECORD DRIEST SUMMER TOTAL OF 4.16" SET IN 1907 REMAINS IN PLACE. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...FLOOD WATCH GENERALLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE CAPE COD CANAL THROUGH TONIGHT. NH...NONE. RI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ230-236 FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ231>234 FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ235-237-250 FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ254-255 FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY. && $$ MESOSCALE UPDATE...FRANK/AED SHORT TERM/AVIATION/CLIMATOLOGY...EVT LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...JWD 109 FXUS63 KLMK 301338 AAA AFDLMK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 940 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .MORNING UPDATE... REMNANTS OF KATRINA LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE CKV/HOP VICINITY AS OF 13 UTC...AND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION SHOULD CONTINUE N/NE TO BETWEEN LOU AND FFT DURING THE AFTN. AXIS OF MDT/HVY RAINS CONTINUE WITHIN DEFORMATION ZONE RUNNING FROM SE MO UP INTO SRN IND AND NRN KY. LATEST GFS HAS THIS BAND GRADUALLY LIFTING N/NE BY 18 UTC TODAY...THOUGH SOLID LIFT CONTINUES OVER SRN IND OVER INTO THE LOU/LEX AREAS EARLY THIS AFTN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS OVER SRN KY DRYING OUT ALOFT SLIGHTLY...WHICH MAY HELP DIMINISH PCPN RATES THERE TO LGT/MDT THIS AFTN. WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH...WITH EMPHASIS ON SRN IND/LOU/LEX AREAS WHERE ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. REST OF CWA SHOULD SEE PCPN RATES/COVERAGE DIMINISH BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE...THOUGH GFS DOES SHOW ANOTHER SHOT OF LIFT MOVING ALONG OHIO RIVER BY 06 UTC TONIGHT. RECENT PILOT REPORTS...ACARS SOUNDINGS...AND VWPS FROM NEXRAD SHOW WINDS OF 35-50KTS WITHIN 2-4KFT AGL. WIND SHEAR BEING CONTINUED IN THE TAFS...AND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH OR SO HAVE MATERIALIZED AT THE SFC THIS MORNING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF MADISON...LINCOLN...CASEY...AND CLINTON COUNTIES SEE HIGHER GUSTS. WILL EXPAND CURRENT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE SOME THESE COUNTIES. WITH WET SOILS...THESE KIND OF WINDS CAN CAUSE SOME TREES TO FALL OVER. SPC HAS SHIFTED THE DAY ONE SVR THREAT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. WITH 1KM SRH VALUES NEAR 200 THIS AFTN...SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SPIN UP TORNADOES IN CELLS THAT CAN BECOME STRONG ENOUGH. BEST THREAT WILL BE ALONG/EAST OF APPALACHIANS WHERE SFC HEATING WOULD BE MAXIMIZED. FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS OVER SRN IND INTO LOU AREAS WHERE RAINS WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT. ALSO REALIGNED POPS SLIGHTLY. CS .SHORT-TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... AT 06Z THE SURFACE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS OVER TUPELO MISSISSIPPI. GFS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE STORM AT 00Z AND VERIFIED WELL AT 06Z. GFS IS ALSO MODEL OF CHOICE OF NHC. SO...WILL FAVOR ITS SOLUTION. THE CENTER OF KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE BOWLING GREEN AREA AROUND NOON AND THEN NEAR CINCINNATI BY THIS EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION IT WILL BRING PLENTY OF RAIN...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH PWATS ARE AROUND 2.5 INCHES TODAY...THE STORM IS MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY SO AMOUNTS MAY BE A BIT LESS THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...PERHAPS MORE IN THE 1.5 TO 3 INCH RANGE. ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT TODAY SOME LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ABLE TO GET GOING LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO IMPRESSIVE WIND SHEAR...AS IS THE CASE WITH STRONG TROPICAL SYSTEMS SUCH AS THIS ONE...A SEVERE THREAT IS THERE INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. BUFKIT HELICITY VALUES INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS MORNING AND PEAK AROUND MID-DAY. THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE REGION...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SPIN-UP APPEARS TO BE EAST AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEW CASTLE TO BOWLING GREEN TO STANFORD...INCLUDING LEXINGTON AND THE BLUE GRASS. IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY BUT BY AND LARGE THE WINDS SHOULDN'T GET OUT OF HAND. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. AS KATRINA MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT RAIN AND BREEZES WILL SUBSIDE AND THE OVERCAST WILL BREAK UP. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS...PERHAPS RISES OF 4 TO 6 DEGREES FROM MORNING TEMPERATURES. 13 .LONG-TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... REMNANTS OF KATRINA SHOULD MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE FA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT QUICKLY GETS KICKED NE BY UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DOWN TO TEXAS. SHOULD BE A SHARP GRADIENT FROM DRY TO WET CONDITIONS BEHIND THE SYSTEM. LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE IS PROGGED JUST UPSTREAM OF THE DYING SYSTEM...SO WILL END ALL MENTION OF RAIN IN CWA BY 15Z WED. WITH ANY CLEARING BEHIND KATRINA...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY INTO THE LOW 80S. RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALONG WITH A SMALL AREA OF WEAK DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF 250MB JET. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO GENERATE ISLD/SCT SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING. KEPT DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW. AFTER THAT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION...WITH MAINLY NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BOARD. ENSEMBLE MOS SHOWS MUCH DRIER DEWS FROM FRI AFT THROUGH EXTENDED FORECAST. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES RUNNING AROUND THE 1380-1390M RANGE...WHICH SHOULD YIELD ROUGHLY LOW 80S FOR THE REGION FOR HIGHS. LOWS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR 60...WITH UPPER 50S ACROSS BLUEGRASS REGION. AL && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT/11 PM CDT FOR ALL COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT/3 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. IN...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST FOR ALL SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. && $$ 667 FXUS61 KGYX 301342 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 942 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE... WILL BE UPDATING ZONES TO FRESHEN 1ST PERIOD WORDING BUT NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... MORE IN THE WAY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TODAY AND THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...THEN A STEADIER RAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA LATE TONIGHT. CURRENTLY..ONE BATCH OF RAIN IS EXITING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER EASTERN NEW YORK STATE AND VERMONT. PATCHY FOG LINGERS IN BETWEEN...WITH VARYING SKY CONDITIONS. NOT MUCH OF A FOCUS AT THE SURFACE...WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST AND A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WELL WEST OF THE AREA. IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...WITH WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN. THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO REMAINS ALMOST STATIONARY. FOR TODAY...THE BATCH OF RAIN OVER EASTERN NEW YORK STATE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONE OF THE WEAK IMPULSES IN THE FLOW. THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WILL BE AFFECTED MOST...WITH A RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...WITH THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...WILL MENTION THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (WITH HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN THE RAIN AREA) THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY PRESENT...AS WELL AS HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES TODAY (AND TONIGHT). AFTER THIS...THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT DELETE THE MENTION. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE...AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST. IN THESE AREAS...WILL GO ABOVE THE MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS...WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. FOR TONIGHT...THE ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA. WILL INCREASE THE MENTION FOR ALL AREAS...REALIZING THAT...BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE GFS (WHICH HAS BEEN THE STEADIEST MODEL IN THIS REGARD)...WILL GO WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. FOR NOW...WILL NOT RAISE A FLOOD WATCH...SINCE THE ACTIVITY TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE FLASHIER IN NATURE. NOT ALL AREAS HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL ISSUE A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK AND ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO BETTER ASSESS ANY NEED. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA. FORECAST FOLLOWS THE 00Z GFS AND UKMET MODELS. DISCOUNT THE NAM...WHICH IS COMING AROUND TO THE SOLUTION THE GFS HAS BEEN CARRYING FOR SEVERAL RUNS...HOWEVER IT SHOWS THE LOW SPLITTING INTO TWO WAVES WEDNESDAY...WHICH SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY. THE GEM IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK AS WELL...SIMILAR TO THE GFS...JUST A TAD FURTHER SOUTH WITH ITS TRACK. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA'S REMNANTS TO PASS JUST WEST OF MAINE WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOLLOWING THE GFS/UKMET... EXPECT TROPICAL RAINFALL TO MAINLY EFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF TROPICAL AIR WORKS INTO AN ALREADY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THIS. A COLD FRONT ON THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN MORE SEASONABLE AIR...SPURRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE SHOWERY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A FAIRLY NICE DAY ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS/UKMET CLEARING THINGS OUT IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW. FOLLOWING SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...FEEL RIVER BASINS CAN GENERALLY HANDLE THE ANTICIPATED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WEDNESDAY. WILL ADDRESS MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS IN A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. OVERALL A DRIER PATTERN FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES SUPPORTING THE GOING CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .AVIATION... CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR...AND MUCH OF THIS IS TIED TO PRECIPITATION. WOULD EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO DROP TO IFR AFTER 09Z...AND STAY THERE THROUGH 13Z OR 14Z. AFTER THIS...PSM...CON AND LEB SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS... INTERRUPTED BY MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOT AS CONFIDENT OF THIS AT PWM AND AUG...BUT SHOWED SOME SIGN OF IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z...WOULD EXPECT A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA APPROACH...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP TO MVFR AFTER 03Z OR 04Z. && .MARINE... IN THE SHORT TERM...WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CHANGES LITTLE AND MIXING FROM ABOVE IS CUT OFF BY THE LIMITED DEPTH OF THE MARINE MIXED LAYER. WITH REGARDS TO SEAS...THE WAVE WATCH MODEL HAS BEEN BUILDING SEAS TOO QUICKLY IN THE PRESENT FETCH AREA. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT SMALL CRAFT SEAS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY...AND LAST INTO TONIGHT. IN THE LONG TERM...BRING CONDITIONS UP TO STRONG SCA WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PASSES TO OUR WEST. WILL HOLD OFF ON GALES TO SEE HOW THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA HOLD UP OVER LAND. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD IN THE SE FLOW...WITH WAVE WATCH MODEL FORECAST PERHAPS A TAD HIGH...BUT IN THE BALLPARK. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. && $$ SHORT TERM: HAYES LONG TERM : APFFEL 509 FXUS62 KMLB 301343 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 945 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... MORNING SOUNDINGS AND CAPE PROFILER INDICATING LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED MORE SSW-SW THROUGH AROUND H4 AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER AS KATRINA LIFTS NE FROM TN TOWARD OHIO THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LOW STRATUS STILL LINGERING BUT SHOULD MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS DEEP WITH TBW/CAPE PWATS BOTH JUST ABOVE 2.2 INCHES THIS MORNING. DEW POINTS REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE WITH MANY LOCATION DP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S...WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE THE HEAT INDICES A DEGREE OR SO EITHER SIDE OF 105 BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME EARLIER CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE WEST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA HAS WEAKENED BUT HAS ALSO GENERATED OUTFLOWS THAT SHOULD MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SWLY FLOW SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO INHIBIT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT NORTH AND MAY DEVELOP BUT BE PINNED NEAR THE COAST HEADING SOUTH OF THE CAPE. WARM TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD AGAIN INHIBIT HAIL DEVELOPMENT...MAIN HAZARDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTNING STRIKES...TEMPORARY FLOODING IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESP WHERE ECHOES TRAIN...AND A FEW WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH. WILL MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO GRIDS/ZONES/HWO WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE. && .MARINE...BOUY 009 WAS RECORDING SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-16 KNOTS AND 2 FOOT 11 SECOND SEAS. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS FOR AFTERNOON CWF. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GLITTO LONG TERM....WIMMER 444 FXUS64 KOUN 301359 AFDOUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 903 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE YESTERDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIGHT IN ALL BUT FAR WESTERN OK. .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 30 627 FXUS62 KJAX 301403 AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1000 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 SFC ANALYSIS PLACES CENTER OF KATRINA IN WRN TENNESSEE RESULTING IN MODERATE S TO SW FLOW OVER THE REGION. RUC GUIDANCE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SOUNDINGS SHOW PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH PWATS OF AT LEAST 2.1 INCHES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH HIGH MOISTURE WE'RE LIKELY TO SEE BANDS OF CONVECTION FIRE UP BY LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED. ALREADY HAVE SEEN A FEW SHOWERS MORE OVER GILCHRIST...ALACHUA AND CLINCH COUNTIES THIS MORNING. 500 MB TEMP STILL ONLY ABOUT -4C. SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPS RISE INTO LOWER TO MID 90S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS WAS NOTED ON MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET WITH LIKELY POPS AND BREEZY WORDING WITH 850MB FLOW NEAR 30 KT. MINOR TWEAKS MAY BE MADE TO UP POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA DUE TO MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF GULF OF MEXICO...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E RIDGE POKING NWD INTO S GA. MARINE...LATEST OBS SHOW WINDS SW 14-16G17KT AT 41012 WITH SEAS 4 FT...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AT 41008. GUSTS TO 17 KT RECORDED AT SAUF1 RECENTLY SO NEARSHORE WATERS IN THE SCEC LOOKS PROBABLE AS WELL. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE UPDATE. && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ ARS 868 FXUS61 KRLX 301403 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1003 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... PKB AND HTS PRECIP SENSORS REMAIN DOWN. KRLX-WSR 88D WILL REMAIN IN SUMMER DEEP CONVECTION PER LOCATION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND NOT GO TO A TROPICAL Z/R RELATIONSHIP. 13Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS CENTER OF KATRINA JUST SW OF KBNA WITH IT CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY NNE. SO FAR THIS MRNG...ALL THE MOD TO HVY RA RMNS OFF TO THE W IN WRN OH WITH OUTER BANDS TRAVERSING CWA. AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW STRENGTHENS THIS AFTN EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE TO OCCUR IN THE I-79 CORRIDOR S INTO THE COAL FIELDS. WHERE OVC CONDS CONT ALONG AND W OF THE OH RVR...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL WV MTNS...AND THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRNBR RVR. THIS INCREASES POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TSTMS WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR...0-3KM SRH NR 250M2/S2 AND 0-6KM WINDS OF 40-50KTS. OPTED NOT TO JUMP IN SVR WORDING YET...WL WAIT TO SEE HOW THE CLD PATTERN DEVELOPS BEFORE INSERTION. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BUMPED UP MAXT IN THE WIL-CRW-CKB CORRIDOR INTO THE LOWER 80S...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST LCL MOS. HIGH WATER CONTS TO BE A THREAT WITH PWATS ABOVE 2.0 INCHES AND H8 DWPTS IN THE TEENS...SO NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 655 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) AVIATION... GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE WINDS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY VEER AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS KATRINA LIFTS NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE MENTIONED THUNDER IN TAFS DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND THIS EVENING AS SYSTEM SHIFTS BY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 345 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (THROUGH TODAY)... TS KATRINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT EXTENDS WELL INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. IT IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATED THE CENTER OF KATRINA BECAUSE LOOKING AT THE SATELLITE DATA...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION IS JUST EAST OF THE INTERSECTION POINT OF TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER...AS OF 3 AM IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS THE CENTER WOULD BE JUST WEST OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI...WELL DISPLACED FROM THE UPPER CIRCULATION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE INITIALIZED THE CENTER KATRINA TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AND THROUGH TIME ARE JUST TOO SLOW IN MOVING HER NORTHEASTWARD. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT KATRINA WILL TRACK THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TENNESSEE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY TODAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO BY EVENING. THIS IS A LITTLE BIT FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS THINKING AND LATEST TPC TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD BRING A GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY...ALTHOUGH SHOWING A DOWNSLOPING EFFECT IN THE QPF. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT GET VERY WARM TODAY UNDER AN OVERCAST CANOPY OF CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVING IN THIS MORNING. CURRENT FLOOD WATCH IS A GOOD ONE AND WILL LEAVE IN TACT. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS DUE TO STRONG SHEAR WITH HELICITY VALUES IN THE 100 TO 200 RANGE. THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF HEATING BUT THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH ROTATION. OTHERWISE THE HEAVY RAIN IS MAIN THREAT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDED 2 INCHES...AND TRAINING OF STORMS ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS. LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... OUR EXPECTED FASTER MOTION OF KATRINA AS COMPARED TO THE MODELS HAS IT MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY EARLY TONIGHT INTO EAST CENTRAL OHIO DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS...THE HEAVIEST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA WILL EXIT OUR REGION BY LATER TONIGHT... WITH SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS HANGING ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST DURING WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FOLLOW THE TRACK OF KATRINA...SO THAT SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA WOULD STILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAINS EARLY TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF WELL BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLOOD WATCH FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. OH...FLOOD WATCH FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. KY...FLOOD WATCH FOR KYZ101>103-105 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. VA...FLOOD WATCH FOR VAZ003-004 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 959 FXUS62 KTAE 301404 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1004 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND TS KATRINA AS IT LIFTS NE ACROSS TN AND KY TODAY. HOWEVER, TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA IN THE DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW. THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING SHOWED THE PW AT 2.12, JUICY, BUT A FAR CRY FROM THE 2.46 INCHES WE SAW AT 00Z. THE DRYING OBSERVED AT MID LEVELS COULD HELP TO CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNDRAFTS IN ANY STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP. REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES BECOMING LESS IMPRESSIVE, MORE UNIDIRCTIONAL WITH TIME FROM W TO E. THE 0-3KM SRH IS HALF WHAT IT WAS AT 00Z. STILL, THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO WITH THE MODIFIED CAPE AT 3289 J/KG AND AN LI OF -6. SPC UPGRADED THE AREA TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY WITH SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES DEVELOPING IN THE FEEDER BANDS THAT CONTINUE TO SPIRAL FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ADMITTEDLY, THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS DIMINISHING WITH TIME, BUT AN ISOLATED ONE COULD SPIN UP DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF TS TODAY, WIND GUSTS COULD EASILY REACH 40 MPH, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR LARGE INLAND WATER BODIES. THESE THREATS WERE OUTLINED IN A RECENTLY ISSUED UPDATE TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WE WILL HOWEVER HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY WINDS IN A LAKE WIND ADVISORYFOR ALL OF OUR ZONES. && .UPDATE...WILL INCLUDE HEADLINE FOR LAKE WIND ADVISORY, BUT REMOVE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AFTER COORDINATION WITH SOME OF OUR BEACH CONTACTS. WE WILL KEEP AND EYE ON HEAT INDICES, BUT FOR NOW THEY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE WILL MAINTAIN A NW TO SE POPS GRADIENT, BUT WILL LIKELY NUDGE THEM UP A BE, ABOUT 10 PERCENT, AFTER WATCHING RADAR TRENDS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. && .CLIMATE...THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMP AT TLH WAS 83 DEGREES. THIS WILL SMASH THE EXISTING ALL-TIME RECORD FOR HIGH DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (80 ON JULY 17 2000)IF WE DO NOT GET RAIN COOLED IN A TS (USUALLY HAPPENS), OR DIP BELOW 80 BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ALSO, WE ARE NOW SITTING AT 4TH ON THE LIST OF ALL-TIME WETTEST SUMMERS (JUN-AUG) AT TLH. IF WE RECEIVE JUST 0.18 TODAY, WE WILL EDGE INTO THE NUMBER 3 SPOT. && .MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BOTH BEEN SLOWLY BUT STEADILY SUBSIDING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS ARE NOW AT THE SCA CRITERIA THRESHOLD. HOWEVER, SEAS REMAIN AT AROUND 10 FT AT THE BUOYS, SO THE ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED. WINDS AND SEAS MAY NOT DROP QUITE AS RAPIDLY AS CURRENTLY INDICATED. WE WILL SLOW DOWN THE TREND, BUT STILL SHOW BOTH DROPPING BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. A QUICK LOOK AT AREA TIDE GAUGES SHOWS DEPARTURES ARE DOWN TO BETWEEN 1-1.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL, SO THINGS LOOK GOOD THERE. && .AVIATION...TODAY'S TAFS SHOW MVFR CIGS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING. WE ALSO FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN MORNING SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS WITH IFR VSBY IN AFTERNOON TS. FINALLY, WE SHOW MVFR VSBY AND CIGS REDEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT AFT 08Z, EVERYWHERE BY PFN. VLD COULD BRIEFLY SEE IFR CONDITIONS AT THAT TIME. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS OVER THE SHORT TERM. WE ARE LOOKING FOR UNSEASONABLY LOW RH LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL BE MET AT THIS TIME. && .HYDROLOGY...RIVERS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AT THE PRESENT TIME, AND OBSERVED AND FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RIVERINE FLOODING. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED FLOODING OF THE FLASHIER SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS IS STILL POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT GET TRAINING IN SPIRAL BANDS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 215 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TODAY...EXPECT HIGHEST POPS OVER OUR SERN ZONES AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA LIFT INTO THE NE USA AND THE MENTIONED DRY SLOT WRAPS AROUND THE SE QUADRANT OF KATRINA. WE CONTINUE TO BE SURPRISED AT HOW LITTLE RAINFALL WE HAVE RECEIVED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO FAR...YET WE ARE RELUCTANT TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR CWFA JUST YET...AS RAINBANDS COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS OVERNIGHT AND OUR SE ZONES COULD SEE A LOT OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE WATCH GOING. ADDITIONALLY...WE HAVE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY SET TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM EDT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE SHOULD PROBABLY CONTINUE IT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL GIVE THE DAY SHIFT TIME AMPLE TIME TO SOLICIT REAL-TIME FEEDBACK ON WHAT IS ACTUALLY GOING ON IN THE SURF ZONE. WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP SE INTO THE CWFA. RESULT WILL BE HIGH POPS CONTINUING OVER THE SE ZONES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY - POPS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AS HPC PROGS AND GFS PROGS SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S OF THE CWFA BY THURSDAY EVENING. LONG TERM...THU THROUGH MON. ASIDE FROM UPDATED WINDS AND SEAS...FEW CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 91 77 91 71 / 60 30 70 30 PANAMA CITY 89 79 90 76 / 50 30 60 20 DOTHAN 89 74 91 71 / 40 20 50 20 ALBANY 91 75 92 71 / 50 20 50 20 VALDOSTA 91 76 92 71 / 60 30 70 30 CROSS CITY 89 75 89 73 / 60 40 80 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 PM CDT TODAY. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT TODAY. GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT TODAY. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TODAY. FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT TODAY. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL LEGS FOR SEAS. && $$ CURRENT DISCUSSION...WOOL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TJT 574 FXUS64 KBRO 301405 AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 910 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...NEAR RECORD HIGH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE BECOMING VARIABLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. && .MARINE...BUOY020 REPORTED NORTH WINDS AT 4 KTS AND SEAS 3 FEET WITH A 4 SEC PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SWELLS SHOULD BE IN STORE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST. LIGHT AND VRB WINDS WILL ALLOW SEABREEZE FRONT TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INLAND. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...63 MARINE/AVIATION...65 MESO...ABBOTT 109 FXUS61 KRNK 301405 AAA AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1005 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH KATRINA PASSING WELL TO THE W WHILE FEEDER BAND CONVECTION WORKS THRU THE SW ZONES AHEAD OF APCHG UPPER LEVEL DRY PUNCH. ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST SHEAR JUST OFF TO THE SW PER 50+ KT JET OFF FFC RAOB AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ALREADY ABOVE 200 OVER SW VA/NW NC AND SHOULD INCREASE AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS MORE SE AHEAD OF MAIN BAND WHILE SW JET ALOFT PICKS UP. HOWEVER BETTER SVR/TOR THREAT LINKED TO AMOUNT OF HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL BUT THE FAR SE CURRENTLY STUCK IN LOWER DECK ATTM. LOOKS LIKE WONT TAKE MUCH HEATING THOUGH IN INCREASING TROPICAL ATMOS AS APPEARS THE SE WILL SEE THE MOST...WHILE THE LEAST OCCURS W OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE BEST HELICITY MAY RESIDE. THUS EXPECT THERMODYNAMIC STRUGGLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY HEATING ENHANCING TOR THREAT WHILE FAST MOVING SHOWERS BRING GUSTINESS DOWN TO THE RIDGES. THUS WILL KEEP HIGH POPS GOING DESPITE BANDED NATURE COVERAGE AND INCREASE WINDS ON THE RIDGES WHERE MIX DOWN OF JET ALOFT LIKELY. SOME ISOLATED FLOODING STILL POSSIBLE WHERE/IF SHORT BANDS ENHANCE AND TRAIN BUT TOO LOCALIZED FOR A WATCH AT THIS POINT. MAY ADJUST HIGH TEMPS UP SOME WHERE ALREADY CLOSE TO FORECAST VALUES OTHERWISE WILL LET GOING NUMBERS RIDE FOR NOW. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 650 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) AVIATION... A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT IFR TO LIFR STRATUS TO SITES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INCLUDING ROA/LYH AND DAN. THESE SITES WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMROVE THIS MORNING AS THE FLOW VEERS TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH FLOW AND BANDS OF TROPICAL SHOWERS BEGIN MOVING THROUGH. I EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT BLF AND LWB...BUT WITH PERIODS OF IFR AS THE SAME TROPICAL SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. ALL SITES WILL LIKELY SEE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS REDUCED TO IFR. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST...SHOWERS SHOULD END...AND ONLY MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. BLF COULD SEE AROUND 15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 255 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... FINALLY STARTING TO SEE ENHANCED SHRA ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC. STILL LOOKS LIKE BULK OF RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF OUR FA...WITH BANDING SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS OUR FA...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BIG CONCERN TODAY WILL BE DESTABILIZATION AND TORNADO THREAT...GIVEN HELICITIES PROGGED IN THE 150-300 RANGE PER GFS. SPC ALREADY HAS MOST OF THE FORECAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN A MODERATE RISK. CAPES ARE NOT ALL TOO HIGH...AND THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP ATMOSPHERE FROM GETTING TOO UNSTABLE. STILL WIND ENERGY AND SHEAR COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SVR. QPF NOT TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP. THINKING PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP FASTER THAN PROGGED...GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING. DRY SLOT LOOKS TO WORK INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA TOWARD EARLY EVENING...WITH PRECIP SHIELD SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST PER GFS SOLUTION. THREAT OF SVR SHOULD BE OVER AFTER 00Z. GENERAL GRADIENT WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NC...DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES TODAY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DUE TO A LITTLE SLOWER TIMING ON THE RAIN BANDS MOVING IN AND ANTICIPATING A LITTLE SUN. WILL HAVE MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH TROPICAL AIR OVER THE REGION. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... REMNANTS OF KATRINA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY WED MORNING...OR CLOSE TO THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS. STILL A SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MORNING...SO COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...WINDS VEER MORE TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON...AND THE GFS IS ALSO SHOWING FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE AREA...WHICH IS REASONABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF OF A HURRICANE. I HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS GOING INTO WED AFTERNOON...BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE I THINK THEY CAN BE REMOVED. I ALSO RAISED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WED- ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT. I EXPECT WE WILL CLEAR OFF ENOUGH WED NIGHT WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TO SEE LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. STILL HAVE STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY...THEN SEE CUMULUS DEVELOPING AND SPREDING OUT BENEATH THE STRONG INVERSION ALOFT. I STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ JH 528 FXUS62 KRAH 301419 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1015 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE SEVERE RISK FOR OUR WEST PARTS CONTINUES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DIFFICULT. CLEARING PATCH IN THE NORTHEAST WILL ADVECT OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY CORRESPONDINGLY CRIMPING HIGH TEMPERATURES. CURRENT FORECAST NUMBERS ABOUT AS GOOD AS ANY THOUGH PERHAPS A SHADE LOW IN SPOTS. CONTINUE TO BELIEVE WEDNESDAY AND THE MAJORITY OF TONIGHT WILL BE DRY ONCE THE CONVECTION OF TODAY SUBSIDES. WILL REDUCE RAIN CHANCES BEYOND THIS EVENING. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY SEE LITTLE CHANGE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 242 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRENGTHENING TODAY AS KATRINA LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. INSTABILITY WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG NEAR 3000 J/KG WITH LOW LEVEL HELICITY AROUND 200 M2/S2. MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WELL...APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES PER DOWNSTREAM AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AS SUCH...WILL INCREASE EMPHASIS ON THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AND PER THE MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE TODAY...WILL BE ISSUING AN SPS OUTLINING THE THREAT AREA. WILL TAPER OFF THE POPS TO CHANCE THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE HEATING AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A DRIER OVERLAND TRAJECTORY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE TOMORROW WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW...WILL DECREASE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE EXCEPT IN THE EAST WHERE MAXIMUM HEATING WILL BE CONCURRENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... TREND TOWARD LESS HUMID AND NOT AS HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD. SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. DEVELOPING NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWEST 10000 FEET SHOULD SCOUR OUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE. SECONDARY SURGE OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TRANQUIL WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. $$ AVIATION... STEADY SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH 15Z WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHES TO WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY 13 TO 15Z ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. APPEARS HIGHEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE IN VICINITY OF INT AND GSO LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE AS FAR EAST AS RDU AND FAY AFTER 17Z. CEILINGS REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE LATER THIS EVENING AS STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS GULF MOISTURE INTO REGION. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 267 FXUS62 KMHX 301420 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1020 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THE OBX HAS ENDED ALONG THE WITH AREAS OF FOG INLAND. THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE AND THE BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE W (KATRINA) HAVE PRODUCED SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING. WITH MORE SUNSHINE ON TAP FOR THE MORNING HOURS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY NOON...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING THE MID 90S BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE RETURN OF HUMIDITY TO THE REGION AS DEW POINTS CLIMB TO THE UPPER 70S WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH AROUND THE 105 DEGREE MARK BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP LATER TODAY...WITH ENOUGH COVERAGE TO COOL TEMPS JUST BELOW HI ADVISORY CRITERIA. && .AVIATION...MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED. FOG THREAT SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LESS WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEEDS. && .MARINE...SOME LONG PERIOD SE SWELL (11 SEC) IS INCREASING SEAS TO AROUND 3 TO 5 FT ACCORDING TO AREA AND OFFSHORE BUOY REPORTS. WILL BUMP SEAS UP ABOUT A FOOT GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER SWELL COMPONENT. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10KT OUT OF THE S/SW TODAY...WITH HIGHER WINDS IN OR AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO PREV FCST. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR AMZ150-152-154-156 FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM THURSDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR AMZ158 FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM THURSDAY. && $$ JAMISON 115 FXUS63 KJKL 301425 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1025 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... FOCUS THIS MORNING WAS ON THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WHICH SAT PICS INDICATE IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF HOP AT 14Z. LATEST 12Z NAM IS STILL SLOWER THAN 06Z GFS ON THE MOVEMENT OF KATRINA...AND STILL LEAN TWD THIS FASTER SOLUTION. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE REALLY REDUCING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO FORECAST NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF KATRINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH WOULD PUT AXIS OF RAIN INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AS FOR WINDS...VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 25+ KNOTS WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. AS RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALSO STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADOS THIS AFTERNOON WITH 12Z NASHVILLE SOUNDING SHOWING 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES AROUND 900 M2/S2. THINNING OF CLOUDS EAST OF JKL-HAZARD SUGGEST THIS AREA MAY SEE TSRA DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. .PREV DISCUSSION... 425 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 CENTER OF KATRINA CONTINUES TO PICK UP SPEED AND TURN MORE TOWARD THE EAST. GFS...WHILE IT HAS HAD THE BEST OVERALL HANDLE ON THE STORM...IS RUNNING A BIT SLOW AND TO THE WEST AT INITIALIZATION. CURRENT MOSAIC SHOWS CONSISTENT BANDS OF MOISTURE NOW BEGINNING TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...OTHERWISE...DOWNSLOPING HAS MITIGATED A LOT OF THE PRECURSOR BANDS FROM KATRINA. LATEST GUIDANCE AND CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA HAS HIGHER FLOOD THREAT TODAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WATCH...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE A BIT LOWER OVERALL WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT...SO WILL FRESHEN UP SOME OF THE CURRENT WORDING...WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. KATRINA HAS BEEN ABLE TO HANG ONTO HER TIGHT GRADIENT A BIT LONGER...AND WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS NEAR OUR LAKE WIND CRITERIA...SO HAVE KEPT THIS GOING AS WELL. SPC HAS CONCENTRATED THE GREATER TORNADO THREAT EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FOR TODAY. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE DOWNSLOPING HURT ORGANIZED CELL FORMATION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPS...HOWEVER WITH SO MUCH SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A FEW SPIN-UPS IN THE HWO. LATEST GFS MOS SHOWS THE FASTER EXIT OF KATRINA...AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO ARGUE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...INITIALIZATION STARTED OUT A BIT SLOW...SO HAVE KILLED THE PRECIP PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ONLY HANGING ONTO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM. FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE EXPIRED BEFORE 6 AM WEDNESDAY...BUT DEPENDING ON WHAT MATERIALIZES TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...WOULD RATHER CONTINUE IT LATER IN CASE THERE ARE ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS THAT LAST BEYOND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES BEYOND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST INTACT...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && 1025 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005 02Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA NOW MOVING INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE HEAVIER RAIN AND HIGHER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NOW EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN TENNESSEE. CLOSER TO EAST KENTUCKY...THE FIRST RAIN BAND FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS CROSSED INTO THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND IS WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PINWHEEL NORTH. TO THE NORTH OF THIS...LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING THROUGH NORTH ALONG INTERSTATE 64. AREAS OF FOG ARE INTERMINGLED WITH THE SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS ARE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 70. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES THIS WAY. THE HEAVIER RAINS OF KATRINA WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT WITH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SEEING MORE THAN THE EAST DUE TO THE STORM TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A BIT FURTHER EAST DUE TO KATRINA/S CURRENT MOVEMENT...AND ALSO SOME DOWNSLOPING SETTING UP IN THE EAST. THIS ALL CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE GRIDS...TEXT PRODUCTS AND THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST THOUGHTS ON KATRINA...BUT THE BULK OF TEXT ZONES WILL BE THE SAME WITH THE MIDNIGHT WORDING TAKEN OUT AND NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES WORDING ADDED. 524 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LARGE BAND OF PRECIP ALONG A DEFORMATION ZONE LYING ACROSS KY IS BEGINNING TO LOSE ITS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SUPPORT...AND SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DIE OFF AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS BAND HAS PRIMED THE SOILS NICELY ACROSS MUCH OF KENTUCKY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF FLOODING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BUT NOW KATRINA IS TAKING AIM AT THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. OMINOUS BANDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS GA AND AL...MOVING NORTHWARD AT A FAST PACE. KATRINA WILL PUT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 65 AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDORS AT HIGHEST RISK FOR FLOODING. TO ADD INSULT TO INJURY...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW. FOR NOW SPC HAS PLACED OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT...25 PERCENT RISK CATEGORY. HOWEVER...SPC STATEMENTS HAVE INDICATED THAT THE AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK CATEGORY AS WELL. AFTER MUCH DISCUSSION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...DECIDED TO GO WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW. WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL ABOVE HURRICANE LEVELS INTO CENTRAL MS THIS EVENING. SO IT APPEARS THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR TOMORROW. WINDS ON FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN COMING UP. IN THE END...DECIDED TO GO ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND ISSUE THE ADVISORY. EXPECT THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE REALIZED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN MOST ZONES...AND AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOS POPS WERE PRETTY MUCH CAT LEVELS ACROSS THE BOARD. SO CAT POPS WERE ON ORDER...LEAVING THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. USED HPC QPF FIELDS FOR THE SHORT TERM. FOR TEMPS...MOS CAME BACK IN COOLER FOR TOMORROWS HIGH TEMPS...PARTICULARLY THE FWC AND MAV MOS. MET MOS REMAINED UNCHANGED. BUT THE NAM LOOKS WAY TOO SLOW WITH KATRINA/S MOVEMENT AND HAS NOT HANDLED HER WELL AT ALL. DECIDED TO TAKE TEMPS BACK DOWN IN THE WEST...BUT LEFT WARMER TEMPS IN THE EAST PER PREVIOUS SHIFTS LEAD AS DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP WITH WARMER TEMPS THERE. PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS THERE WAS GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE NUMBERS. EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KY THROUGH MONDAY...KEEPING THE REGION MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER...TREND OF THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER PATTERN AND NOW CUTS OFF AN UPPER LOW FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY SOUTH OF KY. FOR THE FORECAST GENERALLY USED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THIS SOLUTION AND THE CANADIAN MODEL WHICH IS LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP EXTENDED FORECAST DRY WITH LOW LEVEL E/NE WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND STAY CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE TEMPS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR... FLEMING...BATH...MONTGOMERY...ROWAN...MENIFEE...MORGAN...ELLIOTT... POWELL...WOLFE...ESTILL...LEE...OWSLEY...JACKSON...ROCKCASTLE...LAURE L L...PULASKI...WAYNE...MCCREARY...AND WHITLEY COUNTIES. LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. && $$ HYSELL 070 FXUS62 KEYW 301430 AFDEYW FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1030 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... .CURRENTLY... AN ATLANTIC PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC ACROSS CUBA. TROPICAL STORM KATRINA IS MOVING STEADILY NORTHEASTWARD OVER MISSISSIPPI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS IS A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY. ISLAND LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING RIGHT AROUND 10 MPH...AND MARINE LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING AROUND 10 KNOTS. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING INDICATED A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. PWAT IS 2.15 AND NEARLY ALL OF THAT IS CONFINED TO A MOIST LAYER BELOW 900 MB. A DEEP LAYER OF FAIRLY DRY AIR SITS FROM 900 TO 500 MB. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DETECTED ACROSS KEYS WATERS THIS MORNING. .SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON)... THE ATLANTIC PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CUBA WILL SWING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTHERLY AROUND THE 10 MPH RANGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES TODAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE LOCAL FORECAST PRODUCT. && .MARINE... SWELLS FROM KATRINA ARE STILL ENTERING KEYS WATERS...BUT ARE ON THE RAPID DOWNWARD TREND. GUIDANCE AND MARINE OBSERVATIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL MAINTAIN SCEC FOR SEAS. SEAS ARE HOWEVER EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS BEFORE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTHERLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS && .AVIATION... FOR THE ROUTE FROM IN AND AROUND KEY WEST TO BEYOND MIAMI...A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW GENERATE ONLY LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...SD AVIATION/NOWCASTS............APA 713 FXUS64 KLZK 301434 AAA AFDLZK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 930 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE... UPDATE ON THE WAY THIS MORNING. REMNANTS OF KATRINA CONTINUE TO SPIN TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE ARE VISIBLE WITH ALL PRECIPITATION RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SLACKEN AND WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW LAKE WIND CRITERIA. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND PULL THE ADVISORY. OTHER CHANGES WILL BE TO REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE AREA AND ADJUST CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND WILL BE LEFT ALONE FOR NOW. QUICK LOOK AT THE NEW NAM SHOWS QUIET WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AT LEAST. && .PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 415 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE RAIN CHANCES IN THE EAST...ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS. HAVE CANCELLED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS FROM LITTLE ROCK WEST. THEN...EXTENDED THE ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM FOR AREAS EAST OF LITTLE ROCK. WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER SUNRISE...SO HAVE GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH NO RAIN IN AREAS WEST OF LITTLE ROCK. CHANCE POPS FOR THIS MORNING IN THE EAST...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER/PRECIP...BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. REST OF SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN DRY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE KEEPS RAIN AWAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND COOLER A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY AFTER WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LABOR DAY THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND STILL LOOKS RATHER QUIET. RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT MOISTURE LOOKS INSUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME TO HAVE ANY MENTION OF RAIN. TEMPS WILL BE TYPICAL OF THE FIRST PART OF SEPTEMBER WITH RATHER COOL MINS (BY SUMMER STANDARDS) WELL DOWN INTO THE 60S AND WARM MAXES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... LITTLE ROCK AR 88 66 94 67 / 10 10 10 10 HARRISON AR 88 63 91 65 / 10 10 10 10 HOT SPRINGS AR 90 66 95 68 / 10 10 10 10 PINE BLUFF AR 88 67 94 68 / 10 10 10 10 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 87 64 90 64 / 10 10 10 10 MONTICELLO AR 88 67 95 68 / 10 10 10 10 SEARCY AR 86 66 91 67 / 10 10 10 10 MOUNT IDA AR 91 66 95 68 / 10 10 10 10 RUSSELLVILLE AR 89 65 94 66 / 10 10 10 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 56 094 FXUS62 KGSP 301436 AFDGSP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1036 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO INCLUDE HIGH WIND WARNING/WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NC/EXTREME NE GA AND UPSTATE ZONES OF SC ADJACENT TO NC. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF TREES DOWN ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES AS WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING PRESSRUE GRADIENT. ALSO ADJUSTED WIND FOPRECASTS FOR TODAY. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 313 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM KATRINA SHIFTING A BIT MORE EASTWARD IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FOR THE REMNANT LOW AND MUCH MORE EASTWARD THAN INDICATED BY EITHER OF OUR SHORT RANGE MODELS. CONVECTION IS REALLY FILLING IN NOW IN BETTER SHEAR AND FORCING AXIS ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PROPER. AS THIS DEEPER MOISTURE GETS THROWN UP AGAINST OUR HIGHER TERRAIN ON STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WE STILL ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA. IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE WE SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE EASTERN ZONES. WILL HIGHLIGHT CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY AND LIKELY TO CHANCE EAST...AND HOLD ON TO THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT. WE WILL CHANGE THE MONIKER TO FLOOD WATCH SINCE MOST AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN RECEIVING RAINFALL OVERNIGHT ARE THE SAME LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING...AND THE RAIN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. WITH THE FORWARD SPEED OF KATRINA INCREASING...CHANGES IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE FASTER AND MORE VARIABLE THAN PREVIOUSLY BELIEVED. THE EASTWARD SHIFT WILL MAKE IT LIKELY THAT SOME HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME RATHER HIGH WIND GUSTS. UPSTREAM...THE 88-D AT KBMX AND KHTX STILL SHOW 40 TO 50 KTS OF WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE; PROFILE OVER OUR REGION MUCH LIGHTER AT PRESENT BUT WE DO ANTICIPATE AN INCRASE IN THE WIND. AN UNUSUAL WIND PHENOMENON OVER NORTH ALABAMA HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS TREES DOWN THERE EVEN WITH MUCH LIGHTER OBSERVED WINDS FROM METAR SITES THAT HAVE MANAGED TO REMAIN ONLINE. THERE COULD BE POCKETS WHERE THE HIGHER RADAR-INDICATED WINDS HAVE BEEN BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE OR A GRAVITY WAVE IS POSSIBLE. IF WIND SPEEDS NEED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED FOR THE WESTERN CWFA THIS MORNING...THERE IS STILL TIME TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS UPSTREAM AS WIND PROFILES STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PREDAWN AND AS THOSE STRENGTHENING PROFILES IMPACT NORTH GEORGIA. FOR NOW...WE WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA...MENTIONING SOME WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR SO AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CWFA HAS BEEN EARMARKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...SLIGHT RISK WEST FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ALL OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE FAR SOUTHERN UPSTATE...MODERATE RISK INDICATED NOW FOR THE CENTRAL UPSTATE THROUGH THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THIS DUE STRONGER 0-1 KM FLOW AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ANY SURFACE HEATING TO ENHANCE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND IN THE LEE TROF EAST OF APPALACHIANS. INTERESTING THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS BRING SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR INTO THE WESTERN CWFA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS EASTERN SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE MOIST. WE ALSO LOSE A LOT OF OUR DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON..ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WIND SPEEDS OVERALL ARE PROGD TO STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE WITH SURAFCE CIRCULATION AROUND KATRINA MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH AND UPPER TROF APPROACHING WITH POTENTIAL DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION LATE. WITH MODERATE RISK IN PLACE FOR THE AFTERNOON...WE WILL INCLUDE THE SEVERE WORDING IN THE ZONE TEXT. IT MIGHT BE PRUDENT HERE TO MENTION THAT A TORNADO WATCH DOES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME WESTERN CWFA UNTIL 6 AM. AS SIGNIFICANT ECHOES UPSTREAM APPROACH THE REGION...WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL WATCHES POSTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. PLAN TO TONE DOWN POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE CWFA BUT MAINTAIN DECENT CHANCES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED AND CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING WITH APPROACH OF NOT ONLY THE UPPER LOW REPRESENTING THE MID LEVEL PART OF KATRINA BUT ALSO THE OVERALL APPROACH OF THE TROF IN WHICH THE SYSTEM IS ENVELOPED. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGD TO SWING AROUND TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS EVENING AND TO WESTERLY...DOWNSLOPE DIRECTION...BY MORNING. MODELS BRING A DRY SLOT INTO THE AREA ALSO WITH THE FEATURE...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEARS TO SUPPORT THAT IDEA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS SUGGEST A RAPID DRYING OUT AND A BOUNDARY CROSSING THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. WE WILL KEEP CHANCES GOING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY PROGD...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE NOT WORKED ON TEMPERATURES YET BUT EXPECT BELOW NORMAL WEST TODAY...WARMER EAST WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... ADJUSTED WIND SPEEDS AND POPS SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE. AVIATION... MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH KCLT DEVELOPING A LOW CLOUD CEILING BEFORE SUNRISE. ONCE IN THE MVFR...EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS A PREVAILING CONDITION THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MODELS SHOW A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. HOWEVER... EXPECT PRECIP TO BE OFF AN ON AND SHOWERY...WITH STRETCHES OF GOOD VISIBILITY IN TROPICAL AIR. THE TEMPO GROUP IS TAILOR MADE FOR THIS SCENARIO SO I WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT...AND MOVE THE PRECIP FORECAST TO TEMPO CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES. EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP TO MOVE NORTH AND FADE WITH SUNSET...SO HAVE OPTED FOR A VCSH AFTER 00Z WITH A LOW CLOUD CEILING HANGING ON. LOOKING AHEAD... GUIDANCE SHOWS CEILINGS DROPPING INTO IFR RANGE IN SOME CASES TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY...SO THIS WILL BE CONSIDERED IN THE NEXT ISSUANCE. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR GAZ010-017 UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY. ...FLOOD WATCH FOR GAZ010-017-018-026 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. ...TORNADO WATCH FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 UNTIL 2 PM TUESDAY. ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ018-026-028-029 UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY. NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ033-034-048>055-058-059-062>067 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. ...TORNADO WATCH FOR NCZ033>037-049-050-053>057-065>072-082 UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-048>050-053-064-065 UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY. ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ034-054-055-066-067 UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY. ...TORNADO WATCH FOR NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062>064 UNTIL 2 PM TUESDAY. ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NCZ051-052-058-059-062-063 UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY. SC...FLOOD WATCH FOR SCZ001>005 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. ...TORNADO WATCH FOR SCZ001>014-019 UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ001>003 UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY. ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ004>007-010-011 UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...LG 223 FXUS61 KCAR 301441 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1041 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL BRING A STEADY RAIN AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. && .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... UPPER DRY SLOT HAS MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS MORNING ENDING RAINFALL. WITH DAY TIME HEATING AND UPPER TROUGH ALOFT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL LOWER POPS FROM CATEGORICAL TO SCATTERED. UPPER DRY SLOT REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO WILL ALSO LOWER POPS TO SCATTERED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA SHOULD BRING RAIN BACK ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. && .MARINE... && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 514 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL BRING A STEADY RAIN AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A CONTINUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME...WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA ARRIVING WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...JET FORCING AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH THE MOISTURE TO KEEP SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY/TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL BE DRAWN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE 850-500 MB LAYER Q-VECTOR FORCING ALONG WITH ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING WEDNESDAY. THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE WITH THE ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE TO BRING A STEADY RAIN TO THE REGION. THE RAINS COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOST EXTENSIVE HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING WEDNESDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA. WILL ISSUE A FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S...WITH 65 TO 70 ALONG THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES OVER LAND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOWEVER HAVE USED NAM12 TEMPERATURES FOR MAX THURSDAY. HAVE USED GFS WINDS TO POPULATE THE WIND GRIDS. HAVE USED LATEST GFS TO UPDATE SKY GRIDS THURSDAY AND GFS/MOS FOR THURSDAY POPS. HAVE NOT MADE ANY ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO SKY/POP GRIDS. AVIATION... EXPECT A WIDE RANGE OF CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINS IN SPOTS. GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH AREAS OF VFR. CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS TONIGHT WITH CONTINUING SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SEAS WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS/RAIN ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD FOG TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. EXTENDED MARINE: PREFER FASTER GFS SO HAVE INITIALIZED THE WIND GRIDS WITH GFS BUT HAVE MANUALLY MODIFIED WINDS LOWER DUE TO MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER. FOR SEAS HAVE POPULATED GRIDS WITH WNA WAVE WATCH III. HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO WAVE MODEL SINCE MOST OF WAVE ACTION IS EXPECTED TO ORIGINATE FROM SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER. CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ANZ050 UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. $$ SHORT TERM/MARINE...NORCROSS LONG TERM/MARINE...MIGNONE && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ050 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM/MARINE...FOSTER 778 FXUS62 KILM 301441 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1041 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... MORNING UPDATES CENTER AROUND POSSIBLE INTRUSION INTO HEAT INDEX CRITERIA AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SPC HAS JOGGED THE SLIGHT RISK THREAT TO THE WEST TO COVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. MODERATE RISK REMAINS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE ENTIRE AREA. 1200 UTC RAOB WIND FIELDS MATCH UP WELL WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT FROM KATRINA WITH CHS SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER MAGNITUDES/SHEAR VALUES THAN MHX. POPS AND MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER IN WESTERN MOST ZONES LOOK GREAT AND WILL NOT TWEAK. LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF GUIDANCE VALUES. HOWEVER...TREND IS FOR TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OFF WITH EXPECTED CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER. THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE A BRIEF INTRUSION INTO HEAT ADVISORY CATEGORY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. && .AVIATION... GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPO TSRA INCLUDED IN FLO TAFS BECAUSE INLAND AREAS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF BOOMERS THIS AFTERNOON. MYR HAS BEGUN TO GUST AND A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED TO TAKE CARE OF THIS. OTHER THAN WHERE THERE ARE BOOMERS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AT ALL TERMINALS. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL DETER BR FORMATION. LATER UPDATES MAY NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA OR GUSTY WINDS. && .MARINE... THE BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND KATRINA WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. VAD WIND PROFILES FROM BOTH KCLX AND KCAE ARE SHOWING 25-30 KT WINDS BETWEEN 2K AND 3K FT...ALTHOUGH KLTX IS SHOWING WINDS A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER...AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOW MUCH OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT THAT ABLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST OF WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT APPEARS REASONABLE. FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY IS SHOWING A 2 FT SSE SWELL WITH A PERIOD OF 10 SECONDS...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A 2 FT WIND WAVE...COMBINED SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 3 FT. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FT AWAY FROM SHORE THIS AFTERNOON THEN REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST SEAS OR THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH IS IN PLACE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 345 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK TODAY...WITH A MODERATE RISK JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA (GRAZING MARLBORO COUNTY). HELICITY VALUES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AS THE END RESULT. WILL ISSUE A SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT...THOUGH BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH DEW POINTS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IF TEMPERATURES CAN CRACK 90 AS GUIDANCE INDICATES THEN HEAT INDICES WOULD RANGE FROM 100-105. PLAN ON INCLUDING THE HEAT INDEX IN THE ZONE TEXT AND WILL ALSO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR HEAT INDICES AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. KATRINA IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN MS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE REMNANTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...THE BULK OF THE LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AS HEATING IS LOST IN THE EARLY EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND WITH MIXING SUSPECT THAT THE GUIDANCE SPEEDS WILL BE TOO LOW TODAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT THAT IS TAILING KATRINA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. EXPECT DEW POINTS TO TREND LOWER DURING WED NIGHT...HOWEVER WILL NOT SEE THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASSES UNTIL THIS WEEKEND. LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... GFS SHOWING BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY WILL STILL BE A WARM DAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LACKING...HOWEVER LOWER DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY SAT NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THEN FROM NEW ENGLAND. AVIATION... OTHER THAN A BRIEF ENCOUNTER WITH MVFR VIS AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK...AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION AT KFLO...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THRU 06Z WED. INCLUDED GUSTS BOTH IN AND OUT OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AT KFLO...LATER SHIFTS MAY YET NEED TO TWEAK SPEEDS UP FURTHER. MARINE... S/SW WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE WATERS TODAY...AS THE KATRINA CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BROADEN. NOT FEELING TOO CONFIDENT ABOUT THE MODEL HANDLING OF WINDS...AS KCAE/KCLX VWPS SHOW A 25 KT LLJ ALREADY ESTABLISHED. MIXING IS...AS USUAL...AN ISSUE IN THE MARINE LAYER. BEST I DID FOR SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE GRIDS IS 18 KT...BUT FIGURE JUST ENOUGH GUSTINESS TO MAKE IT WORTH FORCING MENTION OF 20 KT. THE STRONG SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU WED...WITH FROPA NOW SLATED FOR WED NIGHT AS MODELS ARE A BIT FASTER IN LINE WITH THE QUICKER FORWARD SPEED OF KATRINA. BENIGN N/NE FLOW EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT. WW3 DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON 11-12 SEC SE SWELL MAKING IT INTO ALL THE BUOYS AND USC WAVE GAGE AT SPRINGMAID PIER. FORTUNATELY THE POWER OF THIS SWELL IS STILL QUITE LOW...AND HEIGHTS PORTRAYED IN WW3 GUIDANCE ARE NOT TOO FAR OUT OF LINE. WILL ADD A FOOT AT MOST...COMBINING WITH THE WIND WAVE TO GIVE US A MARGINAL SCA FOR SEAS TONIGHT (INTO WED FOR MY NC WATERS). RIP RISK CURRENTLY RUNNING LOW...BUT THE SWELL BEARS WATCH AS ANY INCREASE IN HEIGHT OR POWER MAY PUSH US TO MODERATE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTH FACING BEACHES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR AMZ254-256 FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR AMZ250-252 FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM WEDNESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHK AVIATION...JAN MARINE...JAQ 965 FXUS65 KTFX 301445 AFDTFX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 845 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE... TODAY...UPDATES TO ZONES PLANNED BY 930...IR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF IS OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND BEGINNING TO CROSS THE ROCKIES. THE AIRMASS IS STABLE WITH A CAP AT MID-LEVEL. PRECIP AND CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF TROF AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING AS THE TROF CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND MOVES EAST. WILL UPDATE TO FRESHEN FIRST PERIOD WINDS...POPS...AND SKY COVER. ZELZER && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 530 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005) DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT A SLOW WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER MAKE A RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN MONDAY. MOST AREAS WILL BE CLOSE TO 30 DEGREES COOLER TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO MONDAY AFTERNOONS TEMPERATURES. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT BY LATE EVENING AS A SURFACE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL NIGHT OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND A COLD NIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. HIGHER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY GO WELL BELOW FREEZING AGAIN. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR READINGS BY THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE OVER GLACIER PARK...WHERE THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND LIGHT. BRUSDA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. MOISTURE AND ANY TYPE OF FORCING IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AN UPPER TROF BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS PERIOD DETRACT FROM FORECAST CONFIDENCE. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE AND A COMPROMISE SOLUTION OF A WEAK...RELATIVELY DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING...COOLING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR...OR A LITTLE BELOW...SEASONAL AVERAGES. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES. EK && .AVIATION... UPDATED 1130Z. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z. CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 18Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 68 43 76 49 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 65 40 72 46 / 20 0 0 0 HLN 69 45 77 48 / 20 0 0 0 BZN 70 37 75 42 / 30 0 0 0 WEY 64 23 69 25 / 20 0 0 0 DLN 67 36 75 43 / 30 0 0 0 HVR 70 44 77 49 / 20 0 0 0 LWT 65 40 74 46 / 20 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS 232 FXUS63 KSGF 301452 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 950 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT END OF PRECIPITATION IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ZONE UPDATE ALSO SENT. SUTTON .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION(155 AM)... REMNANTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA HAD TRACKED INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED RAIN BANDS EXTENDED AS FAR WEST AS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND JUST EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE MISSOURI OZARKS WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF KATRINA'S CLOUD SHIELD AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO KENTUCKY. SOME SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS AND MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS WEST PLAINS. OTHERWISE A NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FETCH WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE MUCH OF THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND KATRINA'S REMNANTS TRANSLATE EASTWARD. A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MINIMAL AS GULF MOISTURE WILL BE SHUT OFF IN THE WAKE OF KATRINA. SOME MOISTURE POOLING AND LIMITED INSTABILITY ALONG THE WEAK BOUNDARY COULD POSSIBLY TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING LATE WEEK WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE ASSERTS ITSELF OUT WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. FOSTER && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z AND 12Z TAF CYCLES. THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST... REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE ONLY EFFECTS AT THE SPRINGFIELD AND JOPLIN TERMINALS WILL BE SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS...AND A NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 KTS. SAW && SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MO...NONE. .KS...NONE. $$ WFO SGF 246 FXUS63 KFGF 301452 AAA AFDFGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 950 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER MN WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST TODAY. AS IT DOES INCREASING RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HIGH OVER ALL BUT FAR EAST SO PLENTY OF SOLAR EXPECTED. STILL WILL SEE MOST CU DEVELOPMENT OVER FAR EAST ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST REFLECTS ABOVE SO MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED. WILL ADD MORE CLOUDS TO FAR EAST TO REFLECT MOIST LAYER AND LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ VOELKER 348 FXUS65 KBOI 301455 AFDBOI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID 854 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...COOL AIR WITH DEEP BUT DRY UPPER TROUGH RIGHT OVER OUR CWA THIS MORNING. TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY REPLACED BY BROAD UPPER RIDGE OFF PACIFIC BY THURSDAY. WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THURSDAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MODERATE WEST WINDS TODAY WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT ALLOWING MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A COLD MORNING WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...NO UPDATES. && .AVIATION...VFR WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST WINDS SURFACE AND ALOFT. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. VERY LITTLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH TROF PASSAGE OTHER THAN WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS. CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL IDAHO AND NORTHWARD. DRY OVER THE SOUTH. WINDS EXPECTED TO FINALLY SUBSIDE MIDDAY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT STAY WINDY IN THE MAGIC VALLEY. MUCH COOLER ENTIRE AREA WITH 60S AND 70S OVER THE REGION. QUITE CHILLY READINGS ON TAP TONIGHT WITH CORE OF COOL AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO WARM RAPIDLY HOWEVER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WITH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES REBOUNDING SHARPLY. NO POPS IN THIS PERIOD. MONTH FINISHES OUT WITH A TRACE AT BOISE AND ONLY .02 SINCE THE END OF JUNE. LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY MINOR UPDATES MADE. DRY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE CWA FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY AND MONDAY INCREASING CLOUDS AND DROPPING THE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BOISE DISCUSSION...LC AVIATION.....JT PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...GS PREVIOUS LONG TERM....DH 556 FXUS64 KEWX 301455 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 955 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE... WITH S CENTRAL TX ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF THIS MORNING AND PW'S DOWN FROM MONDAY MORNING...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SOAR AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100 MOST AREA...EXCEPT ABOVE 100 IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA. WITH MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR H7 LEVEL WILL SEE SCT HIGH BASED CU...AND AN ISOLATED STORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT COVERAGE WILL LESS THAN 10 PERCENT SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 349 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005) DISCUSSION... AFTER A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER DAY MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND ABOVE NORMAL MAXES WILL RESUME THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THROUGH SATURDAY, A WEAKNESS IN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL GRAUDALLY SEPARATE ITSELF FROM KATRINA AND ANCHOR A SHEAR AXIS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO INTO PARTS OF TX. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS FEATURE TO BE MOST DISTINGUISHED ON FRIDAY, BUT STILL SHOW NOT INDICATIONS OF HAVING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PRODUCE RAIN. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FRIDAY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BANK ON ANY GIVEN AREA. THUS WILL CALL FOR A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD GENERALLY BE ANCHORED AROUND NM FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GENTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE MAINLY CONTINENTAL. THE WIND TRAJECTORIES DO NOT FAVOR THE TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN SOAKED AREAS ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA, SO WILL AGREE WITH GUIDANCE MAXES AND UNDERCUT MOS MINS AND DEWPOINTS IN SPOTS. && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 01 716 FXUS64 KLCH 301458 AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 958 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE...MODELS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING DRIER AIR FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND A FEW OF THESE COULD CLIP THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES LATE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR TODAY AND ZONES LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. && .MARINE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN RELAXING SEAS AND WINDS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 310 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005) DISCUSSION... AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH AXIS...THAT WILL BE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR THE INSTABILITY PRODUCED AHEAD OF HIS TROUGH TO WORK WIT. WILL CALL FOR ONLY A LIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN EXTREMES OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MOISTURE IS ONLY MODERATE IN THAT AREA THIS MORNING AND DRYING IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY. BEYOND THAT...IN THE WAKE OF KATRINA...DRY AIR IS SUPPOSED TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE AREA....BEGINNING TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERMS OF THE FORECAST. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE SLIGHT AT BEST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && AVIATION... VFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 94 71 97 74 / 10 0 10 10 KBPT 95 71 98 75 / 10 0 10 10 KAEX 94 69 97 71 / 0 0 0 0 KLFT 93 74 96 74 / 10 0 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ WILEY 420 FXUS64 KCRP 301459 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 955 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED JUST BEYOND OFFSHORE WATERS...IN CONVERGENCE ZONE...WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST. A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO MORE HOT TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY. THE SEA BREEZE WILL STILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND 12Z SOUNDING/GOES SOUNDER STILL SHOWING MOISTURE OF 1.8-2" OF PW POOLED ALONG THE COASTAL BEND...EXPECT TO SEE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. INHERITED FORECAST SHOWS THIS WELL. SEE NO REASON FOR ANY CHANGES TO MAKE ANY MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. RECORD TODAY IS 102 DEGREES AT CRP SET IN 1954 AND 103 DEGREES AT VCT SET IN 2000 AND 1927. && .MARINE...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTN. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH A ONSHORE (SE) WIND OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS DEVELOPING AND CONT THRU THE EARLY EVE. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD...EXPECT IN ISOLD RWS/TSTMS THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTN ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. && $$ 76...SHORT-TERM 989 FXUS64 KCRP 301503 CCA AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1000 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED JUST BEYOND OFFSHORE WATERS...IN CONVERGENCE ZONE...WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST. A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO MORE HOT TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY. THE SEA BREEZE WILL STILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND 12Z SOUNDING/GOES SOUNDER STILL SHOWING MOISTURE OF 1.8-2" OF PW POOLED ALONG THE COASTAL BEND...EXPECT TO SEE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. INHERITED FORECAST SHOWS THIS WELL. SEE NO REASON FOR ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO MAKE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. RECORD TODAY IS 102 DEGREES AT CRP SET IN 1954 AND 103 DEGREES AT VCT SET IN 2000 AND 1927. && .MARINE...WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTN. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH AN ONSHORE (SE) WIND OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS DEVELOPING AND CONT THRU THE EARLY EVE. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT IN ISOLD RWS/TSTMS THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTN ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. && $$ 76...SHORT-TERM 999 FXUS63 KAPX 301505 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1105 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS REMAINS OF KATRINA OVER NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AT 989 MB WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF JAMES BAY. VISIBLE AND WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF MICHIGAN WITH THE WV IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWFA. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SHEARING APART OVER NORTHERN LOWER. WITH THE REMAINING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL STAY WITH THE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE REMAINS OF KATRINA WILL BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA. HAVE TWEAKED CLOUDS UP SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER TO ACCOUNT FOR A BIT MORE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MINOR CHANGES MADE HERE AS AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD REACH A FEW DEGREES WARMER. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. MJP && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 332 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED SOUTH OF JAMES BAY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STILL EXTENDING FROM THE LOW THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES. LAST IN A LONG LINE OF SHORT WAVES IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU UPPER MICHIGAN...GENERATING A THIN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY STRETCHING FROM EAST OF ANJ TO ISQ TO JUST WEST OF GREEN BAY. FURTHER UPSTREAM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MID WEST AND NW GREAT LAKES...AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA CHURN TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. NRN EDGE OF THE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA CURRENTLY EXTENDS THRU NRN IL...SRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND IS MAKING SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS. VERY FEW FORECAST ISSUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA SERVE TO STAGNATE THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPSTREAM WX FEATURES. AFTER A MINIMAL CHANCE OF A LINGERING SHOWER THIS MORNING VIA THE FINAL SHORT WAVE...CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THRU THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. TODAY...ELONGATED AREA OF DPVA RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DROP SE THRU THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA...AND SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED BY LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND BY WARMING ALOFT (ABOVE 800 MB). WILL ADD A MINIMAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE MORNING FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF M-32...BUT WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON DRY WITH THE ANTICIPATION THAT ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL BE DRY ALL DAY. SKIES SHOULD STAY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TO ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF A MAINLY BKN LOW CLOUD DECK. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS MICHIGAN AS THE FINAL SHORT WAVES EXITS EAST AWAY FROM THE STATE. UPPER RIDGE AXIS REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE. CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE AND THIN SOMEWHAT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE STABLE/DRIER AIR. BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND EVEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TO WARRANT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THRU THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REACH WRN SECTIONS OF MICHIGAN TOWARD EVENING...WITH A SURFACE LOW AND FRONT FAST ON ITS HEELS AS IT MOVES INTO WISCONSIN. MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE LACKING WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE PARENT LOW. ALL OF WEDNESDAY WILL DEFINITELY BE DRY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE 70S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BECOME A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES APPEAR THE BETTER LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF MICHIGAN CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THRU THURSDAY...BUT WILL ADVERTISE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THRU. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 222 FXUS63 KILX 301510 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1010 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE SYSTEM EXTENDS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS ILLINOIS...WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE KILX CWA. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO EDGE ITS WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WITH PRECIP NOW FALLING ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A PARIS TO EFFINGHAM LINE. WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR IN PLACE TO THE N AND W...RAIN AREA IS HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY SPREADING WEST OF I-57. THINK WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY RUN ALONG A CHAMPAIGN TO SHELBYVILLE LINE. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO RAISE POPS TO 100 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WITH POPS TAPERING TO 20S ALONG A MONTICELLO TO TAYLORVILLE LINE. WHERE RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING...TEMPS ARE HOLDING AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK...WHILE READINGS ELSEWHERE HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. WILL THEREFORE UPDATE GRIDS TO LOWER HIGHS ACROSS THE E AND SE SIGNIFICANTLY...GENERALLY INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. && .PREV DISCUSSION... RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORTER TERM DEALING WITH THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA... AS WELL AS WEAK FROPA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE LONGER TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK BENIGN WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH THE PERIOD... AND COOLER TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND. .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY... TROPICAL STORM KATRINA IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN TENNESSEE. WV/IR SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT KATRINA MAY BE BEGINNING TO MAKE A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TURN... FOLLOWING THE PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE... GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND... BETWEEN OUR PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND LARGE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM 00Z INDICATED MODEST HEIGHT RISES FROM ILX AND POINTS NORTH AND WESTWARD... WITH RATHER DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HANGING IN OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHICH ANY INCOMING PRECIP WILL HAVE TO WORK AGAINST. SO OBSERVATIONS SEEM TO INDICATE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CWA... JUST SCRAPING BY THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE RAINFALL GRADIENT WILL BE VERY SHARP... SO THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHERE IT SETS UP. GFS/UKMET CONTINUE TO PERFORM THE BEST WITH KATRINAS TRACK... AND THE FUTURE PATH OF THE STORM. THE MODEL-BASED QPF FIELDS APPEAR TO BE... AT LEAST SPATIALLY... CONSISTENT WITH OBSERVED TRENDS. WENT WITH THE HPC GRIDS... WHICH LOOKED GOOD... FOR THE ACTUAL QPF AMOUNTS. BOTTOM LINE... THE HIGHEST POPS/QPF WILL BE TIGHTLY STACKED ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES... WITH LIKELY POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70 WITHIN THE ILX CWA. THIS HAS NECESSITATED NUMEROUS ZONES WITHIN THE ZFP. SINCE WE'LL ONLY BE ON THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP... IT WON'T TAKE LONG FOR THE BACK EDGE TO PULL OUT OVERNIGHT. POPS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THEREFORE DROP BACK DRAMATICALLY... WITH A DRY FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AS KATRINA ZIPS INTO PENNSYLVANIA. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL FOR THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY... AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW... QUICKLY MOVES INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT OR WIND SHIFT LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... THEN ACROSS THE CWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW... IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER... THE MERE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY COULD SPARK OFF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. FOR NOW... WILL KEEP THE WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY... BUT WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE THINKING HERE IS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG WITH BOUNDARY WOULD OCCUR ALONG WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING... AND THE CHANCES MIGHT ALSO BE BEST IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE ANY KATRINA-BASED RAINFALL MIGHT JUST LEAVE BEHIND SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR BROAD RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WITH A BROAD SFC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR COOLER TEMPS... UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD COULD WELL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MIDDLE 50S... IF NOT LOWER... GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND SLACK WINDS UNDER THE 'BIG BUBBLE.' TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD... ALLOWING RETURN FLOW. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. $$ BARNES/HARDIMAN 568 FXUS64 KMRX 301513 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... DRY SLOT BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. FAST MOVING BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE STILL EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SUPPORT POTENTIAL ISOLD TORNADO DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATION IN THE ADVSRY RANGE...SOME MINOR TREE DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PLATEAU. WIND ADVSRY MAY BE EXTENDING INTO THIS EVENING. && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC......LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR NCZ060-061. TN......WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR TNZ01>041-072-074. LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR TNZ012>014-035>040-067>071-073-081>088- 098>102. VA......NONE. && $$ SON 840 FXUS64 KJAN 301513 AFDJAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 1013 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE... KATRINA ROTATING THROUGH THE "LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES" REGION ON TN THIS MORNING AND STARTING TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. FIRST MRNG VIS IMAGES SHOWING BACK EDGE OF CLOUD DECK NOW ALONG A TUNICA TO MARKS TO GRENADA LINE. MOST OF THE JAN CWFA EXPERIENCING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MRNG WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY RUNNING "SOMEWHERE" IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 (I SAY "SOMEWHERE" SINCE THE ASOS DATA IS RATHER SPARSE AT THE MOMENT). THE SFC ANALYSIS DOES SHOW THE SFC GRADIENT SLACKENING ACROSS CENTRAL MS AS KATRINA WEAKENS AND LIFTS NWD...AND WILL ALLOW THE ADVY TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM. MAIN UPDATE ISSUES THIS MRNG WILL BE TEMPS AND POPS. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF KATRINA...EXPECT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH STEEP SFC-H7 LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE A FEW SHRA ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS TO SOME EXTENT. WILL TWEAK EXISTING POPS TO SOME EXTENT...BUT PREVIOUS FORECASTER ON THE MID SHIFT LEFT A PRETTY DECENT PACKAGE. AM ALSO PLANNING ON ADJUSTING TEMPS UP IN THE ERN/NERN ZONES A TAD BASED ON SLIGHTLY QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED CLEARING. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS TS KATRINA 5 MILES NE OF TUPELO MS MOVING OFF TO THE NNE. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOWING LIGHT BANDED PRECIP ROTATING AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF KATRINA FROM FROM WRN TN INTO NRN MS. GUSTY WINDS AND A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT ALSO (OBVIOUSLY) STILL AFFECTING THE NRN 1/2 OF THE JAN CWA THIS MRNG. EXPECT GRADIENT TO RELAX LATER THIS MORNING AS KATRINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NE. HOWEVER AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...WILL EXTEND WIND ADVISORY A BIT LONGER...UNTIL 10 AM CDT...FOR FAR NRN ZONES (NORTH OF A LINE FROM MACON TO KOSCIUSKO TO GREENVILLE). WILL ALSO CARRY LOW CHC POPS FOR RESIDUAL TROPICAL SHOWERS THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...THE MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES SOME MIXED SIGNALS AS FAR AS PRECIP CHCS IN THE TONIGHT THROUGH WED TIME FRAME. WHILE THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF KATRINA...THERE WILL ALSO BE A L/W TROUGH ORIENTED ALONG THE MS RIVER VLY IN ITS WAKE. IN ADDITION...THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW A DESTINCT S/W TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LOWER MS ON WED. THUS...ADDED LOW POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER S/W TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON THU...BUT EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG NRN STREAM S/W TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HELP PUSH THE L/W TROUGH EASTWARD WITH TIME. OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY POSITIONED FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE INTERMTN REGION WILL AMPLIFY AND TRANSLATE EAST OVER THE 3-5 DAY PERIOD. THE WILL BRING A RETURN TO VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VLY REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. DID NOT DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM MOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS...THOUGH IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE MEX MAX TEMPS MAY BE TOO LOW IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IF THE H5 RIDGE INTENSITY AND POSITION VERIFY. && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ 15/CBD 589 FXUS65 KBYZ 301520 AFDBYZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 920 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED... MINOR UPDATES ON THE WAY. BACKED CLOUD COVER FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING AS ANY SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS IS LOCATED WITH MAIN DYNAMICS OVER WESTERN MONTANA. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE LIVINGSTON AREA. INCREASED POPS THERE FOR THIS MORNING. MODELS STILL INDICATE A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE...BUT WITH MAIN TROF DYNAMICS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY KEEPING LOW POPS MAKES SENSE. WINDS HAVE BEEN BLOWING FAIRLY STRONG THIS MORNING IN MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE INVERSION NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN WYOMING...HAS HELD WIND SPEEDS DOWN IN RIVER VALLEYS SO FAR BUT THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT. SO WILL LEAVE WIND SPEEDS ALONE THROUGH THIS EVENING. CHAMBERS .LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON... ...SUMMARY... RIDGE TO BUILD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH RISING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TROUGH THEN PROGGED TO MOVE IN SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...DETAILS... ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO READINGS BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW AREAS WILL REACH 90F FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SUMMER'S NOT QUITE OVER YET. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY TRENDING WARMER OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD...SO CONTINUED TO TREND FORECAST TEMPS UPWARD FOR THAT PERIOD. ENSEMBLE RANGE IN TEMPS IS PRETTY SMALL FOR THIS PERIOD...SO TRIED TO BETTER PIN DOWN TEMPS AND FAVOR HIGH END OF ENSEMBLE RANGE. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS IN A PACIFIC TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...SO TRENDED TEMPS DOWN MONDAY ALONG WITH BROADBRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LATEST 0Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH TROUGH...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING SUNDAY EVENING. PREVIOUS RUNS HOLD OFF FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. OBVIOUSLY...SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WITH NEXT TROUGH...BUT CURRENT FORECAST RESEMBLES A COMPROMISE AMONG GFS SOLUTIONS AND ECMWF/CMC SOLUTIONS. FOISY && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH AS UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CHAMBERS FOISY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 071 048/077 052/082 053/086 055/088 054/085 053/077 2/T 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T LVM 062 037/077 041/081 045/086 047/087 048/084 047/079 3/T 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/B 12/T HDN 073 048/077 047/086 049/090 051/092 051/089 050/078 2/T 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T MLS 075 048/079 052/084 053/089 055/093 057/088 055/079 2/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T 4BQ 077 048/078 048/085 052/090 053/092 056/089 056/079 2/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T BHK 077 045/074 044/083 051/086 053/090 054/084 053/077 2/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T SHR 072 041/079 041/083 046/088 049/088 051/086 050/077 2/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS 089 FXUS65 KGGW 301523 AFDGGW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 925 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY... FRONT PARALLEL WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THEREFORE HAS MOVED EAST SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. COLD FRONT PASSED GLASGOW BEFORE 8 AM AS EVIDENCED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS DIRECTIONS IN EASTERN ZONES CURRENTLY FROM THE EAST...WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DOPPLER IMAGERY POSITIONS A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER HAVRE. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY LATE THIS MORNING, BUT NOT OUR EASTERN ZONES. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE CENTRAL ZONES AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. ST ...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS NE MT EARLY THIS MORNING. NO CONVECTION AND ONLY SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH IT...AS IT DISPLACES A HOT AND VERY DRY AIRMASS. HIT AND MISS GUSTY NW WINDS WITH THE FRONT. UP TO 55 KT SE WIND WAS NOTED LAST EVENING AT 4K MSL ON 88D VWP...BUT CURRENTLY DIMINISHING AND WILL NOT BE A FACTOR AS FRONT MOVES THRU. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW UP TO 40KT NW WIND AT 850 MB THIS MORNING IN OUR WEST...WHICH SHIFTS TO OUR EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIXED LAYER WILL BE ABOVE THIS LEVEL...SO WINDY WEATHER EXPECTED ALL AREAS...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MODERATELY STRONG LIFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIMIT SPEEDS BELOW FULL POTENTIAL. ON THE OTHER HAND...COLD ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG. 850 MB TEMPS DROP AROUND 30F IN 24 HOURS BY AFTERNOON. RESULTING HIGHS 20-25 COOLER TODAY IN OUR WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH MAINTAINS INTENSITY WITH MODERATELY STRONG LIFT AND VORTICITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS NE MT TODAY. THE AIRMASS COOLS AND MOISTENS UP. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE AS WELL AS RADARS TO OUT WEST SHOWERING INCREASING ACTIVITY...BUT NOT A LOT YET ON EITHER COUNT. GFS LOOKS TOO WET AND PREFER THE MORE CONSERVATIVE POPS OF THE ETA...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRIER WEATHER OF LATE...BUT DEFINITELY A CHANCE OF AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE TROUGH. DO PREFER THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF GFS AND OTHER MODELS OVER ETA IN KEEPING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST THIS EVENING. LESS UNSTABLE FORECAST MODEL LIFTED INDEXES STAY ABOVE ZERO...SO WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDERSTORM MENTION. FLAT UPPER RIDGING WITH DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY. MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENTS BELOW 10K FT KEEP WINDS TO 10KT OR LESS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY WITH THICKNESS RISES AND WARMING TEMPS...AND VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS. HAVE LOWERED MOST LOWS A FEW DEGREES AS WE HAVE TENDED TO COOL OFF MORE LATELY THAN MODELS FORECAST...BUT NOTHING AT ALL UNUSUALLY COOL. SIMONSEN .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY... BROAD AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE REGIONAL WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF WEEKEND BEFORE TRANSITION TO BROAD FLAT TROUGH LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE EARLY IN PERIOD...BUT ECMWF TENDING A BIT QUICKER MOVEMENT EAST ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE FAVORED SLOWER SOLUTION OF CANADIAN/GFS. GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWING GOOD INTERNAL CONSISTENCY OF COMPONENTS THROUGH THIS EARLIER PERIOD. BEGINNING SUNDAY...GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS MORE SCATTER BUT BULK OF COMPONENTS REMAIN SLOW TO MOVE TROUGH EAST. LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MODELS DIFFER ON DEPTH OF UPPER TROUGH. GFS AND CANADIAN FAVORED WITH SHALLOWER SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS BULK OF ENERGY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...THUS FAVORING DRY SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BASED LARGELY ON GFS ENSEMBLE...WHICH SHOWS LIMITED SCATTER IN TEMPERATURE RANGES OF COMPONENTS...WITH WARMING TREND PEAKING SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY COOLING MONDAY/TUESDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE IS DISPLACED INTO DAKOTAS. CURRENTLY EXPECT DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BECAUSE OF LITTLE SIGN OF MOISTURE IN MODELS AND CLIMATOLOGY OF SEPTEMBER...WHICH RAPIDLY DRIES OUT AFTER SUMMER CONVECTIVE SEASON ...AND NO SIGN OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED FROM LATE SEASON TROPICAL STORMS. && .AVIATION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BRIEFLY BEHIND FRONT DURING MORNING HOURS...THEN CLIMB ABOVE 20 KNOTS WHEN MID LEVEL WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING... AND CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER OF DAY. BROKEN LOWER MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT DURING THE EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. && .FIRE WEATHER...WINDY WEATHER TODAY...BUT COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PRECLUDE CONTINUING THE RED FLAG WARNING. && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW 110 FXUS64 KSHV 301523 AFDSHV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1020 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... CLEAR SKIES OVER CWA THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. MAY EVEN BE SOME CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST ZONES WITH CIRCULATION AROUND TD...NOW OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...AND WILL NOT UPDATE THIS MORNING. && .POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 95 70 98 71 / 10 0 0 0 MLU 92 68 96 69 / 20 0 0 0 DEQ 95 64 97 67 / 10 0 0 0 TXK 96 69 97 70 / 10 0 0 0 ELD 94 67 97 69 / 20 0 0 0 TYR 96 69 100 71 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 96 69 99 71 / 10 0 0 0 LFK 98 68 100 71 / 10 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 14 419 FXUS64 KTSA 301524 AFDTSA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1024 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... RESIDUAL CLOUD OVER EXTREME EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TO DIMINISH AS KATRINA PUSHES NORTHEAST. LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES AT MOST LOCATIONS. MAV MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN HIGH OF LATE FOR NORTHWEST TSA CWA. GW && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 311 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005) DISCUSSION... ALL EYES ARE ON KATRINA WHICH IS NOW TURNING TO THE EAST AWAY FROM HERE. PART OF REASON IT IS TURNING IS BECAUSE OF A SHARP LEVEL SYSTEM THAT IS HEADED INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HEADS EAST THE NEXT FEW DAY EVENTUALLY DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. TIMING FOR THE FRONT TO BE CROSSING THE AREA WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE IS BASICALLY NO MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF IT...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE POPS. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH 20S BECAUSE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW LITTLE OR NO QPF. THE UPPER WAVE WILL THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LEAVING BEHIND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD BECAUSE 850 MB TEMPERATURES STAY ABOUT THE SAME AS DO THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 92 63 94 67 / 0 0 0 20 FSM 94 64 95 68 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 94 64 95 65 / 0 0 0 10 BVO 91 59 92 61 / 0 0 0 20 FYV 91 59 91 60 / 0 0 0 20 BYV 91 60 90 64 / 0 0 0 20 MKO 94 64 93 66 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 91 59 93 63 / 0 0 0 20 F10 92 63 92 65 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 94 67 97 68 / 0 0 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 21 LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 10 466 FXUS63 KGRR 301524 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1124 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE... LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AS OF 15Z SHOWS THE NRN EXTENT OF THE PCPN SHIELD FROM T.D. KATRINA HAS REACHED TO JUST SOUTH OF KLAF... KFWA...AND JUST S OF KTOL. THIS PCPN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY MOVING NNE THROUGH THE MORNING AS IS SLOWLY CONTINUING NWRD. THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A PRETTY GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE UP THROUGH THE COLUMN WHICH IS HELPING TO EAT SOME OF THE PCPN AS IT MOVES NORTH. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN...THE 12Z ILN SOUNDING WAS NEARLY SATURATED THROUGH THE COLUMN AND PWAT VALUES WERE OVER TWICE THE AMOUNT THAN THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING (2.11 INCHES VERSUS 1.01 INCHES RESPECTIVELY). THE 06Z GFS HAD A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE NRN EXTENT OF THE PCPN AT 12Z THIS MORNING AND SHOWS PCPN MAKING IT UP INTO JACKSON AND CALHOUN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z NAM IS NOW COMING INTO LINE WITH THIS THINKING. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE DECIDED TO REINTRODUCE POPS INTO THE SE CORNER OF THE CWFA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...HAVE GONE WITH CHC TYPE POPS FOR JACKSON AND CALHOUN COUNTIES AND SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR INGHAM AND EATON COUNTIES. IF NOT FOR THE DRY AIR INITIALLY IN PLACE...WOULD FEEL MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT THESE AREAS SEEING MEASURABLE PCPN. ELSEWHERE...HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN ACROSS THE CWFA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. AT THIS POINT...HAVE DECIDED TO STICK WITH PARTLY SUNNY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE SE (MOSTLY CLOUDY) AS THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST A LITTLE FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH. HIGHS ACROSS THE CWFA SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S EVERYWHERE. NRN AREAS WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE SUN...BUT THEY HAVE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT TO OFFSET THE SUN. OBVIOUSLY SRN AREAS WILL SEE LESS WARMING DUE TO CLOUD COVER. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE && $$ NJJ 270 FXUS65 KBYZ 301525 CCA AFDBYZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 925 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED... MINOR UPDATES ON THE WAY. BACKED CLOUD COVER FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING AS ANY SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS IS LOCATED WITH MAIN DYNAMICS OVER WESTERN MONTANA. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE LIVINGSTON AREA. INCREASED POPS THERE FOR THIS MORNING. MODELS STILL INDICATE A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE...BUT WITH MAIN TROF DYNAMICS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY KEEPING LOW POPS MAKES SENSE. WINDS HAVE BEEN BLOWING FAIRLY STRONG THIS MORNING IN MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE INVERSION NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN WYOMING...HAS HELD WIND SPEEDS DOWN IN RIVER VALLEYS SO FAR BUT THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT. SO WILL LEAVE WIND SPEEDS ALONE THROUGH THIS EVENING. CHAMBERS .LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON... ...SUMMARY... RIDGE TO BUILD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH RISING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TROUGH THEN PROGGED TO MOVE IN SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK. ...DETAILS... ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO READINGS BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW AREAS WILL REACH 90F FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SUMMER'S NOT QUITE OVER YET. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY TRENDING WARMER OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD...SO CONTINUED TO TREND FORECAST TEMPS UPWARD FOR THAT PERIOD. ENSEMBLE RANGE IN TEMPS IS PRETTY SMALL FOR THIS PERIOD...SO TRIED TO BETTER PIN DOWN TEMPS AND FAVOR HIGH END OF ENSEMBLE RANGE. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS IN A PACIFIC TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...SO TRENDED TEMPS DOWN MONDAY ALONG WITH BROADBRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LATEST 0Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER WITH TROUGH...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING SUNDAY EVENING. PREVIOUS RUNS HOLD OFF FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. OBVIOUSLY...SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WITH NEXT TROUGH...BUT CURRENT FORECAST RESEMBLES A COMPROMISE AMONG GFS SOLUTIONS AND ECMWF/CMC SOLUTIONS. FOISY && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH AS UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CHAMBERS FOISY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 071 048/077 052/082 053/086 055/088 054/085 053/077 2/T 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T LVM 062 037/077 041/081 045/086 047/087 048/084 047/079 7/T 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/B 12/T HDN 073 048/077 047/086 049/090 051/092 051/089 050/078 2/T 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T MLS 075 048/079 052/084 053/089 055/093 057/088 055/079 2/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T 4BQ 077 048/078 048/085 052/090 053/092 056/089 056/079 2/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T BHK 077 045/074 044/083 051/086 053/090 054/084 053/077 2/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T SHR 072 041/079 041/083 046/088 049/088 051/086 050/077 2/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS 493 FXUS61 KAKQ 301525 AAA AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1115 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE...LATEST ADVSRY ON KATRINA FROM TPC INDICATES IT HAS FURTHER WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND IS LOCATED IN WRN TENNESSEE. CAN SEE PARTIAL CLRNG SECTOR ADVECTING INTO CNTRL NC/SE VA ON SATL LOOPS...LIKELY ASSOC W/ SUBSIDENCE DRYING BETWN OFFSHORE TSTMS AND OTHER BANDS IN SC/GA. WV SATL DEPICTS BEST MID LVL DRYING AND ENHANCED SVR POTL ON WRN SLOPES OF APPALACHIANS IN ERN TN/KY. ANOTHER BAND SEEN INTO GA/CNRTL SC. RUC SNDGS CONTINUE TO SHOW BEST LOW AND MID LVL SHEAR VALUES TO BE IN OUR FAR WRN CNTYS ACRS VA PIEDMNT...W/ MUCH LESS FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES NEAR THE COAST FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE LOW LVL JET AXIS AND UPR DIV. HOWEVER...REAL AXIS OF STRG LOW LVL JET LOOKS TO STAY FARTHER WEST ACRS THE I-81 CORRIDOR. VERY MOIST AMS IN PLACE W DEW PTS MID-UPR 70S CWA WIDE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS ERN 2/3 W/ MORE LKLY POPS W OF I-95. LMTG FACTOR FOR SVR WILL BE WEAKER INSTABILITY IN THE WEST W/ MORE CLDS AND LESS SHEAR IN THE EAST DESPITE MORE INSTBLTY THERE. BUT W/ SPC STILL HAVING THIS AREA IN MDT RISK AND DIFFERENTIAL SFC HTG COULD SEE A FEW ISO SVR CELLS SO HAVE ENHANCED WORDING THIS AFTN FOR PIEDMNT. ________PREV AFD BELOW_____ .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... EVEN THOUGH CENTER OF KATRINA SHOULD REMAIN WELL W OF THE AREA TODAY...STILL A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD TORNADOES ACROSS AT LEAST WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. AS TS KATRINA MOVES NWD TODAY...SLY LLJ ON ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY INCREASES...WITH GFS SHOWING 35 KTS FROM S AT 850 MB BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SFC FLOW SE...AND UPPER FLOW INCREASING FROM THE SW...WITH 40 KT AT 500 MB. GFS GRIDDED DATA INDICATE ZERO TO 1 KM SHEAR VALUES INCREASING OVER WRN COUNTIES TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KTS. ZERO TO 1 KM SHEAR VALUES DROP OFF AS ONE GOES FARTHER E. THESE SHEAR PARAMATERS SUGGEST ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHEAR PARALLEL S TO N BANDS...AND POSSIBLY MINI SUPERCELLS...WITH ISOLD TORNADOES A POSSIBILITY...GIVEN ADEQUATE INSTABILTY. THIS SHOULD BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE SUNSHINE. FOR THIS REASON...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED OUR EASTERN VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES...MAINLY W OF INTERSTATE 95...IN A MODERATE RISK...WITH SLIGHT RISK INDICATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. AS KATRINA EXISTS THE NE UNITED STATES...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRY SLOTTING WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF...SO WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... FRONT OFFSHORE BY THU. LOOKS LIKE DRY...AND RELATIVELY LESS HUMID CONDITINIONS ON TAP FOR FRI THROUGH MON. && .AVIATION...VFR CNDTNS ATTM MOST SITES (XCPT FOR THE USUAL DENSE FOG AT SBY). MAYBE SOME LCL IFR CNDTNS ARND SR DUE TO FOG...OTW VFR XPCTD TDY. HAVE ADDED CHC TSRA IN FOR RIC AS THE REMNANTS OF KARTINA PASS BY TO THE W. WILL PRBLY ADD TSRA (AFTR 18Z) TO CSTL TAF SITES WITH 12Z ISSUANCE. && .MARINE...NO FLAGS TDY AS SE FLOW REMAINS AOB 15KTS. PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO TIGHTEN UP AFTR MIDNITE TONITE AND WED INCRG S-SE WNDS INTO 15-20 KTS RANGE. THIS RESULTS IN SEAS APPRCHG 5 FT. THUS WILL HEADLINE SCA (FOR SEAS) STARTING LATE TONITE ACROSS NRN WTRS...THEN MINIMAL SCA CNDTNS (WND WISE) ALL MARINE AREAS WED. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BROWN SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...18 AVIATION/MARINE...44 549 FXUS61 KPHI 301529 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1130 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS BASICALLY ON TRACK. THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA ARE NOW OVER WRN TN AND ARE STILL FCST TO MOVE NEWD THRU OH AND THE LOWER GRTLKS. THIS KEEPS US WELL IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SFC TEMPS ARE NEAR 80 AND DEWPTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...SO THE AMS OVER OUR REGION HAS BECOME MDTLY UNSTABLE THIS MORNING WITH LFTD INDEX VALUES IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE. WINDS ARE MAINLY SW THROUGH MOST OF THE ATMOS...BUT NOT TOO STG ATTM. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE LATER TDA AND TMRW AS KATRINA MOVES BY TO THE N. MAIN THREAT THIS AFTN WOULD SEEM TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM HEAVY SHWRS/TSTMS... ESPECIALLY IF THEY BECOME ORGANIZED IN BANDS PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THE PRECIP WATER AT LWX THIS MRNG WAS WELL OVER 2 INCHES. AMC -------------------------------------------------------------- PREVIOUS AFD FROM 415 AM... .OVERVIEW... OUR TIME OF RECKONING WITH THE RMNTS OF KATRINA IS ARRIVING AS WE WILL HAVE THE PTNL FOR HVY RAIN AND SVR WX BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE WED NGT. THE GFS RMNS THE MDL OF CHOICE AS IT RMNS CLOSE TO TPC/S FCST TRACK AND THE NAM HAS JUST NOT HANDLED THIS PAT WELL AT ALL. ITS 03Z FCSTD POSN OF KATRINA IS ALRDY 45 MILES TOO FAR TO THE SW AND THE LAG JUST CONTS FROM THERE. WE BLV THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HVYR RAIN WILL OCR THIS AFTN AND EVE AS DAYTIME HEATG COUPLED WITH WEAK WAA AND BANDS FOR KATRINA (MAYBE THIS FAR E) ASSIST IN THE HVY RAIN PROCESS. THE SVR PTNL LTR TDY MAY COME IN THE FORM OF ISOLD TORNADOES/SVR TSRA WITH THE GREATER THREAT SW OF OUR CWA. SVR/HVY RAIN PTNL WED IS OF THE MORE TYPICAL TYPE IF ONE CAN SAY THAT AS A CFP SWEEPS THE TROPICAL AIR MASS AWAY AND THE INCIPIENT WIND FIELD IS STGR THAN USUAL AND MORE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE. HVY RAIN PTNL OUTSIDE OF TRAINING S/B DIMINISHED AS CELLS S/B MOVG FASTER. WED LOOKS SIM TO SVR WX EVENTS THAT FOLLOWED THE PASSAGE OF A HURRICANE OR ITS RMNTS TO OUR W IN THE PAST NOTABLY THE AFTERMATH OF FRAN ON 9/8/1996 AND (THE SYNOPTIC PAT IS NOT THE SAME WITH THIS NEXT ONE SINCE IT HAD A STG NEG TILT TROF) ISABEL ON 9/23/2003. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... WE HAVE CHASING THE HVY RAIN PTNL WITH RESPECT TO THE TROP CONNECTION AND THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA AND IT APRS WE WILL CATCH UP WITH IT TDY. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH FCSTG A RATHER BROAD AREA OF WEAK WAA THRUT THE DAYTIME HRS TDY WITH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO BE REACHED AND A DECENT SHRTWV MOVG THRU DURG THE AFTN. THE 00Z UA H8 ANLYSIS DID SHOW A 3C GRAD S OF OUR CWA AND WITH THIS JUICY AN AIR MASS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH. IF THERE IS A SAVING GRACE FOR TDY WITH RESPECT TO THE HVY RAIN...IT WILL BE THAT THE H2.5 JET IS FCST TO LIFT N INTO CANADA AND WITH IT THE GREATER THETA E ADVT/EVEN SOME FGEN FRCG INTENSIFIES N OF OUR CWA. WE HAVE BEEN FORTUNATE ALSO THAT THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH HVY RAIN AT ALL LEADING INTO TDY AND ALL OF OUR CWA/S CTY FFG IS ONCE AGAIN AOA 3"/HR. THUS SHRA/TSRA APPEAR LKLY WITH THE GREATEST POPS IN THE NRN PART OF OUR CWA WHERE THE WAA/FGEN FRCG INCREASES THE MOST. THE OTHER FACTOR FOR TDY IS THE SVR WX PTNL. THE GFS HAS BEEN PRETTY PERSISTENT IN INCRG HEL VALUES TWD EVE. THEIR 0-3KM HEL VALUES OF 120-280M2/S2 (E-W) HAVE NOT WAVERED MUCH AND THE LOWEST 0-1KM VALUES 75-170M2/S2 ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO CAUSE THE CUMULONIMBI AMONG OTHER ELEMENTS TO SPIN. THE LOW EXPECTED LCL IS ALSO DISCONCERTING. RADAR MET LAST EVE SAID THE SHRAS WERE ALRDY ROTATING. DILEMMA IS THAT THE HIEST HEL VALUES IN OUR CWA ARE WITH THE LEAST AMT OF FCSTD CAPE. THE GFS INCRS THE HEL VALUES BY DVLPG SFC TROFFING S OF US TDY AND ADVECTING IT NWD BY EVE. EVEN THE GFS HAS HAD ISSUES WITH THIS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH ITS PERSISTENCE. ANOTHER SAVING GRACE IS THAT ARE MANY MORE CLOUDS S OF US TDY THAN YDA AND MORE MID LVL CLDS WILL BE MOVG NEWD (TU RAY). SO THE SUN WHICH IS DEFINITELY NOT OUR FRIEND TDY MAY HAVE A HARDER TIME BREAKING OUT. THE LESS WE SEE OF IT...THE BETTER OFF WE WILL BE. WE WILL CONT THE SPS CONCERNING BOTH THE SVR AND HVY RAIN PTNL. DON/T WANT TO HIT THE TORNADO WORDING TOO HARD ATTM AS WE WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE AND THERE ARE SOME NEG FACTORS. WE WERE WARMER THAN THE GUID DATASETS YDA AND WITH AN ABT 90 PTNL IF TDY WAS TOTALLY SUNNY...WE WILL GO A BIT ABV MOS GUID. TRIGGERING MECH LIFTS NWD OVRNGT AND WOULD SUSPECT WE WILL HAVE GREATER PCPN CHCS IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE NGT THAN OVRNGT. THE SVR WX THREAT OVRNGT TO OUR S DIMINISHED AND WITH ANOTHER DAY REMOVED FROM THE GULF WOULD THINK (HOPE) SO SHLD OURS. MAY BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG REASON AS AXIS OF MAX HEL DOES LIFT INTO NY STA OVRNGT. STILL DON/T SEE THOSE DEWPTS GFS MOS IS FCSTG AND WILL LEAN TWD THE NAM DEWS WHICH LOOK MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF UPSTREAM CONDS. ON WED...ONE COULD NOT ASK FOR A MUCH BETTER FCSTD COUPLET FOR SVR WX AS CWA WILL BE ON W SIDE OF A STG FOR AUG LLJ AND EXIT RGN OF H2.5 JET ARRIVES DURG THE LATE AFTN/EVE. LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE THAT IT IS PRETTY WARM ALF AND SO FAR THE GFS IS FCSTG RATHER MEAGER INSTABILITY WITH ONLY ABT 500J AND BALMY 4.5C/KM MID LVL LAPSE RATES. GFS STILL FCSTG 0-3KM HEL VALUES OF 150-200M2/S2. THIS MIGHT BE OVERDONE...BUT BLV THE LLVL INSTAB IS UNDERDONE AS WITH ANY SUN LO 90S ARE DOABLE. SO AGREE WITH SPC/S ASSESSMENT TO PLACE US IN SLGT RISK FOR TMRW. ON A CLIMAT NOTE WE HAVE BEEN HIT PRETTY HARD ON DAYS WITH CFPS FLWG THE WWD PASSAGE OF A TROP SYS. MAYBE I DON/T REMEMBER THE ONES THAT DID NOT GO THAT WAY...BUT THE ONES THAT DID WERE TWO NASTY DAYS. FOR NOW WE WILL CARRY SOME ENHANCED...BUT NOT SVR WORDING. WE WILL TALK ABT THE SVR PTNL IN THE SPS/HWO. WOULD THINK HVY RAIN PTNL WOULD DIMINISH WITH THE FASTER FLOW ALF. WE WILL HAVE TO REACCESS THIS IF PCPN BCMS HVYR THAN EXPECTED TDY/TNGT AND DROP FFG VALUES. LASTLY MAX TEMP/DEWPTS MIGHT BRING HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO HEAT ADVY CRIT FOR OUR URBANIZED LOCNS. AM NOT GOING TO BOX LATER SHIFTS IN WITH THIS AS IT IS BORDERLINE AND AT THE END OF A LONG HOT SUMMER. LOOKS LIKE A ONE DAY EVENT ALSO. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE...BUT WILL SEGMENT SPS TO MAKE MNTN OF THE PSBLTY IN URBAN ZONES. FASTER GFS SOLN WILL MERCIFULLY BRING A QUICKER END TO THIS WED NGT AND WILL END ALL PCPN BY THU MRNG. && .LONG TERM (THU THROUGH MON)... CDFNT MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN ON NW WINDS. A SECOND DRY FRONT SWINGS THROUGH BY SUNDAY. WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE REFRESHING. && .AVIATION... MAINLY IFR AT THIS HOUR DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. THIS SHOULD CARRY US THROUGH DAYBREAK. VSBY'S ARE UP COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME WITH ALL TERMINALS POSTING 10'S. THE EXPECTATION FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON IS PREVAILING VFR EVERYWHERE, BUT PLAN ON SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS. && .MARINE... NO REAL CHANGE IN THINKING WITH THIS PACKAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF EX-KATRINA AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND HIGH. WW LOOKS GOOD WITH 6 FOOT NEARSHORE SEAS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE FOR SCA CONDITIONS STARTING TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER FROPA LATE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. && .TIDES... EVEN AS WE APPROACH A NEW MOON, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY TIDAL FLOODING IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES FORECAST TO REACH 1/2 TO AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR US TO RUN INTO ANY PROBLEMS, WE'LL NEED AT LEAST +1 1/2 FOOT DEPARTURES. $$ .HYDROLOGY... FFG HAS NUDGED UPWD AGN AS ALL COUNTIES ARE AOA 3"/HR. HVYST PCPN PTNL FROM KATRINA SHLD OCR TUE/TUE NGT AS HER MOISTURE GETS INGESTED INTO THE BROAD SWRLY FLOW. WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2"...AT LEAST LOCALIZED AMTS TO 4" RMN WITHIN THE REALM OF PTNL. GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN OF LATE IF ANY FLDG DOES IT OCR...IT WOULD BE MORE OF A SMALLER STREAM CONCERN AND NOT A MAIN STEM ONE. THE EMPHASIS FOR HVYR PCN WITH THE LATEST MDL RUNS RMNS CLSR TO THE JET OVR CANADA AND NEW ENG AND THUS OVR OUR NRN ZONES. && .MISCELLANEOUS... WAY BACK WHEN ANALUGS ARE US COMPARED THE APR/MAY 2005 TEMP COUPLET AND SAW HOW THE ENSUING SUMMERS WERE. WELL THIS BUSTED BIG TIME AS THIS SUMMER WILL END (IN PHL) IN THE TOP 10 WARMEST AND MUCH WARMER THAN ANY OF THE PREV ANALOG YEARS. WE/LL PBLY GET MORE MID SHIFTS BECAUSE OF THIS AND WE WON/T QUIT OUR DAY JOB IF WE HAD ONE. THIS IS FOR PHL INTL. YEAR JUN JUL AUG AVG TEMP TOTAL PCPN 1878 67.4 77.6 73.9 73.0 11.84 1891 71.8 71.9 74.3 72.7 11.38 1915 69.6 76.0 73.1 72.9 15.31 1925 78.0 76.2 74.8 76.3 8.16 1938 71.3 77.2 78.4 75.6 20.68 1945 71.5 76.0 74.1 73.9 16.38 1952 74.7 80.1 75.2 76.7 11.95 1954 72.9 77.9 73.5 74.8 8.69 1958 67.8 77.4 73.4 72.9 17.31 1960 70.6 73.3 74.5 72.8 9.42 1968 71.2 77.1 77.8 75.4 9.13 AVG 71.5 76.4 74.8 74.2 12.75 SUM 2005 SO FAR 74.8 78.9 79.6 77.8 10.16 THRU 8/28 1971-2000 NML 72.3 77.6 76.3 75.4 12.03 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. $$ OVERVIEW/SHORT TERM...GIGI LONG TERM...EBERWINE AVIATION/MARINE/TIDES...KRUZDLO HYDROLOGY/MISCELLANEOUS...GIGI 960 FXUS64 KHGX 301530 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1025 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... PW'S REMAIN AOA 1.8 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SE TX STILL LIES ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES AND HAVE TRIMMED MAX TEMPS TODAY BY A DEGREE OR TWO. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 90S TODAY WHICH IS STILL REACHABLE. THINK CURRENT FORECAST IS ON THE MARK. THINK CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE COAST IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE. BASIC INTEGRITY OF PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME. 43 PREVIOUS: BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM KATRINA EXTENDING WEST TOWARD TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. CWFA CONVECTION FREE WITH ONLY A FEW MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTH. DEWPOINTS HAS LOWERED TO NEAR 70 NORTHERN ZONES. PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING INLAND. GOES SOUNDER LOOP INDICATE PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES COASTAL REGION AND PROGRESSIVELY DRIER NORTHWARD. 200 MB LEVEL STILL INDICATE DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER REGION AND 500 MB TROUGH LINE JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SEABREEZE SETTING UP MID AFTERNOON TODAY AND STAYING MAINLY OVER COASTAL ZONES. WE SHALL INTRODUCE ISOLATED POPS COASTAL REGION ONLY FOR TODAY. PW VALUES WILL LOWER TO NEAR 1.3 INCHES TOMORROW AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.8 INCHES FRIDAY. PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH INDICATED TO BECOME WEAKER OVER REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD FROM SW CONUS. MODELS AGREE ON HAVING UPPER HIGH OVER REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF TEXAS INDICATED BY GFS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE AT LEAST FOR THE INLAND AREAS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING POPS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY (ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING EAST OF REGION) MOVING FROM THE NORTH. 37 && .MARINE... SEAS ARE NOW DOWN TO AROUND 2 FEET. EXPECT THESE HEIGHTS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WILL FORECAST WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS UNDER A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. WE COULD SEE SOME INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A LITTLE. 42 && .AVIATION... WILL KEEP AREA TAFS DRY TODAY DUE TO DECREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. COULD GET A WEAK SEABREEZE FRONT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS HAPPENS...WE MIGHT SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES. WILL ATTEMPT TO SHOW THE SEABREEZE FRONT IN THIS AFTERNOON'S PORTION OF ALL BUT THE CLL TAF. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR PERHAPS CALM OVERNIGHT. 42 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 98 72 100 73 98 / 10 0 0 0 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 97 74 98 74 96 / 10 10 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 94 81 94 82 94 / 20 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ 032 FXUS65 KPIH 301533 AFDPIH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO IDAHO 930 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ISOLATED IN UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND CONTINUING STRONG WINDS IN SNAKE RIVER PLAIN MAIN FEATURES THIS MORNING. SOME ISOLATED AREAS GETTING TO ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT NOT ENOUGH WHERE I AM GOING TO ISSUE ANYTHING. GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO EXPECTING WINDS TO SUBSIDE. CURRENT ZONES IN GOOD SHAPE...VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH HIGH SETTLING OVER AND WINDS DYING DOWN...PATCHY FROST IN FCST FOR UPPER AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN. ONLY MINOR UPDATES. GK .PREV DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED EASTERN IDAHO THIS MORNING BASED ON MSAS POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES WITH THE FRONT SITUATED IN FAR WESTERN WY/NORTH-CENTRAL UT. WINDS HAVE STEADILY INCREASED ON THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY AND ARE AVERAGING 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VWP WINDS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 40KTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. FORTUNATELY...THESE WINDS HAVENT BEEN REALIZED DUE TO LACK OF FULL DAYTIME MIXING. ETA MOS WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBS SO BUMPED MORNING FORECAST WINDS HIGHER...HOLDING THEM JUST UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACCELERATES EAST. CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED TO NORTHERN AREAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER JET....MAINLY IN THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND COLDEST AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THE WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS ALLOWING FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO DROP IN THE 30S. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...BUT ISOLATED PATCHY FROST CANT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHTS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...IT IS LOOKING DRY WITH A WARMING TREND STARTING WED AND HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO ARRIVE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM TAKES A TRACK FURTHER NORTH THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY BUT SHOWED A COOLING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...UPPER TROF AXIS WILL PASS TO THE EAST OF ID TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY AND RELATIVELY CLEAR CONDITIONS INTO WED. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE TODAY IN NE ID CLOSE TO THE TROF AXIS. FIRE IN SNAKE RIVER CANYON NW OF KTWF IS RESULTING IN MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KTWF AND KBYI THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY AFTERNOON. HEDGES && .PIH WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST BOIRFWPIH BULLETIN FOR DETAILS. && $$ WEATHER INFORMATION ON-LINE 24-HOURS A DAY (ALL LOWER-CASE LETTERS) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/POCATELLO 174 FXUS61 KBTV 301534 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1134 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... SHRA ACTVTY HAS SHIFTED SE OF FA AND WL PRIMARILY DRY FOR REST OF THIS AFTN/EVE. HWVR...SOME SS MAY PRODUCE ENUF INSTABILITY ALG WITH BNDRYS GALORE FOR SLGT/CHC -SHRA/TSRA. WE'RE WATCHING REMNANTS OF KATRINA AND THE LATEST MDLS FOR PATH AND QPF AMTS. STL AWAITING 12Z GFS BUT NGM HAS BEEN RUNNING CONSISTENT WITH GFS AND SLGTLY E OF TPC TRACK AND NO REAL CHGS... JUST SLGLY E THAN YDY. THEREFORE...WE'RE LOOKING AT A TRACK BTWM KBTV-KMSS WITH HVST ALG/NW OF TRACK. ALY/BUF HV GONE WITH FFA FOR BORDER CTYS AND WL LKLY DO THE SAME WITH AFTN PKG OR INTERMEDIATE. ATTM...LEANING WITH ALL OF NRN NY AND WRN VT FM RUTLAND CTY N TO CNDN BDR. HWVR...THIS CUD CHG SO JUST USE AS A GUIDE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 347 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE. THIS FEATURE HELPED ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST...FEATURE WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON THE AREA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION NOW MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AND THIS SHOULD KEEP BULK OF PRECIPITATION OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DRY THIS MORNING AND INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS RUTLAND... WINDSOR...AND ORANGE COUNTIES. ONCE THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXISTS THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING MECHANISMS TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY MENTION A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD. A DISTINCT BREAK EXISTS BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE UP IN QUEBEC PROVINCE AND THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE KATRINA...WHICH SUPPORTS THE IDEA THAT THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT OF QUIET WEATHER BEFORE STEADIER RAINS MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL MENTION CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE REMAINS OF KATRINA TRACK RIGHT OVER THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK BETWEEN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AND HELP TO MIX THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. WILL MENTION BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT AND MENTION WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL THEREFORE BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE REMAINS OF KATRINA. LOOKING AT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT. IF THERE ARE ANY ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. WILL CONTINUE IDEA FROM DAY SHIFT AND ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REGARDING THIS EVENT. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RATHER HIGH...3 INCHES IN ONE HOUR AND 6 INCHES IN 6 HOURS...AND SO FEEL FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED TO SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAM VERSUS ANY OF THE MAINSTEM RIVERS. LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. BULK OF MOISTURE FROM KATRINA WILL EXIT THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY AND GOING FORECAST HAS ALL OF THESE IDEAS COVERED WELL AT THIS TIME. THUS NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AVIATION... VFR TO MVFR COND FOR ALL SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING LOW CLDS W/ RAIN/FG THRU THIS MORNING FOR ALL AREAS. AFT 15Z...ALL SITES WILL SEE DECR IN LOW CLD DECK BUT WILL REMAIN IN AFOREMENTIONED CATEGORIES. WINDS LIGHT THRU 13Z-14Z THEN INCR OUT OF S IN VT...SW IN N NY...5 TO 15KTS. HIR TRRN WILL BE OBSCD. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SLW 062 FXUS63 KMQT 301535 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1133 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... CONCERNS ON UPDATE ARE CLOUDS AND POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD SHRA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BANDED STRUCTURE TO CLOUDS FILLING IN OVER MUCH OF W AND CENTRAL UPR MI WITH SOME BANDING EVIDENT OVER SRN LAKE SUPERIOR. RADAR LOOP ALSO INDICATES SOME WEAK RETURNS (AROUND 25DBZ) OVER WRN MQT COUNTY WITH A LIGHT SHRA REPORTED AT NWS MQT IN PAST HR. MODELS AND 12Z UPSTREAM SNDG OVER CWPL SHOW A POOL OF COOLER TEMPS (6-7C) BTWN 800-850 MB. 12Z CWPL SNDG MODIFIED FOR NEARSHORE WATER TEMPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN UPR 60S WOULD YIELD 50-100 J/KG CAPE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH INSTABILITY OBSERVED ON 12Z ETA SNDGS AS WELL AND WOULD EXPLAIN THE SHRA ALREADY OCCURRING AROUND THE AREA. GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND SUPPORT FROM MODEL SNDGS HAVE INCLUDED ISOLD SHRA FOR ALL THE NRN TIER COUNTIES WHERE LIGHT NRLY WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ENHANCE DIURNAL INSTABILITY. ALSO CARRIED ISOLD SHRA FOR DELTA AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AS WELL. KEPT WI BDR COUNTIES DRY FOR NOW AS THEY SHOULD BE FARTHER AWAY FM COLD POOL AND THUS BETTER INSTABILITY. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PROJECTED BY MODELS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD PUT AN END TO SHRA. TEMPS STILL ON TARGET SO NO CHANGES MADE THERE. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JLB 439 FXUS63 KMQT 301535 RRA AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1133 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... CONCERNS ON UPDATE ARE CLOUDS AND POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD SHRA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BANDED STRUCTURE TO CLOUDS FILLING IN OVER MUCH OF W AND CENTRAL UPR MI WITH SOME BANDING EVIDENT OVER SRN LAKE SUPERIOR. RADAR LOOP ALSO INDICATES SOME WEAK RETURNS (AROUND 25DBZ) OVER WRN MQT COUNTY WITH A LIGHT SHRA REPORTED AT NWS MQT IN PAST HR. MODELS AND 12Z UPSTREAM SNDG OVER CWPL SHOW A POOL OF COOLER TEMPS (6-7C) BTWN 800-850 MB. 12Z CWPL SNDG MODIFIED FOR NEARSHORE WATER TEMPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN UPR 60S WOULD YIELD 50-100 J/KG CAPE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH INSTABILITY OBSERVED ON 12Z ETA SNDGS AS WELL AND WOULD EXPLAIN THE SHRA ALREADY OCCURRING AROUND THE AREA. GIVEN RADAR TRENDS AND SUPPORT FROM MODEL SNDGS HAVE INCLUDED ISOLD SHRA FOR ALL THE NRN TIER COUNTIES WHERE LIGHT NRLY WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ENHANCE DIURNAL INSTABILITY. ALSO CARRIED ISOLD SHRA FOR DELTA AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AS WELL. KEPT WI BDR COUNTIES DRY FOR NOW AS THEY SHOULD BE FARTHER AWAY FM COLD POOL AND THUS BETTER INSTABILITY. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PROJECTED BY MODELS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD PUT AN END TO SHRA. TEMPS STILL ON TARGET SO NO CHANGES MADE THERE. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VOSS 970 FXUS61 KCTP 301536 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1126 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... REMNANTS OF KATRINA LOCATED OVER WESTERN TENN THIS MORNING AND BEGINNING TO SHOW EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ALIGNING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH STRETCHES FROM OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS WESTERN PA. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING THIN SPOTS IN OVERCAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...WHICH WILL AID DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY. STRONG SHEAR ASSOCIATED W/KATRINA...COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY...WILL CREATE POSSIBILITY OF SVR WX LATE TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA. FURTHER NORTH...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FOR THIS AFTN AS THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE UNDER STRATIFORM RAINFALL. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 316 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY)... T.S. KATRINA ABOUT TO ENTER WESTERN TN AT PRESENT. MUCH OF CENTRAL PA IN LULL BETWEEN DEPARTING UPSTATE NEW YORK SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA'S APPROACHING CIRCULATION OVER SRN OHIO AND WV. GFS TRACK PREFERRED OVER ALL OTHER NUMERICAL MODELS THIS MORNING DUE TO LATEST TRENDS AND GOOD CONSISTENCY. KATRINA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO T.D. STRENGTH LATER TODAY...TPC TRACK HAS CENTER OF CIRC. REACHING NEAR KERI BY 7 AM WED...LIKE THE TRACK BUT THINK FORWARD SPEED WILL BE EVEN FASTER. MAIN THREATS WITH THIS TRACK WILL BE LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND FAVORABLE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE PATH OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. WANT TO AGAIN STRESS THAT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE KATRINA EXITS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN COLLABORATION WITH KPBZ AND KBUF...WILL ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR MY WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES VALID 17Z TODAY THROUGH 17Z WED. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON. FURTHER SOUTH...ACROSS THE LAUREL MOUNTAINS...ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE LIKELY. THESE AMOUNTS WOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE RIVER FLOODING...BUT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO TRAINING LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... KATRINA LIFTS NW OF CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING... LEAVING BALMY AND QUITE BREEZY CONDS IN ITS WAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER WIND ADVISORIES BEHIND THE STORM AS STRONG PRESSURE RISES ARRIVE. GENERALLY IMPROVING CONDS SEEN FROM THU ONWARD WITH COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE CANADIAN AIR MASS ADVECTING INTO PA BY FRIDAY AND SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THIS WEEKEND. AVIATION... MAINLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS INTO WED...AS FRONT STALLS...AND THE REMAINS OF KATRINA HEADS TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES...MAINLY NW AND SE PARTS OF THE CWA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD 384 FXUS66 KPQR 301540 AFDPQR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR 900 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH OVER IDAHO THIS MORNING MOVES EAST WITH DECREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST THIS AFTERNOON TURNING FLOW NORTHWEST. WEAK TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW TO THE NORTH COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS BEHIND TROUGH WEDNESDAY TURNING FLOW NORTH TO NORTHWEST. THERMAL TROUGH SOUTHWEST OREGON THURSDAY MORNING SHIFTS TO EASTERN OREGON IN AFTERNOON. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS PACIFIC TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES. TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY WITH TRAILING FRONT BRUSHING ACROSS NORTH COAST AND FAR NORTH INTERIOR LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM...UPPER TROUGH OVR IDA MOVES E WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISING DURING THE DAY. ONSHORE FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER SW ORE THIS MORNING TURNS NW AS HIGH BUILDS TO S WA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. ETA TIMING OF SYSTEMS IN GULF OF ALASKA LOOKS A LITTLE SUSPECT. STRONGEST SYSTEM ON SATELLITE LOOKS TO BE SYSTEM NOW OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND WHICH GFS MOVES ACROSS WA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TRAILING PORTION SHOULD BRING SOME ONSHORE MARINE CLOUDS INTO NORTHERN COAST AND AREAS OF NORTH INTERIOR LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. HIGH SHOULD REBOUND ALLOWING FLOW TO TURN NW AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. ETA BRINGS NEXT SYSTEM DOWN WED NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WHILE GFS/EURO SHOW RIDGE STRONGER WITH LITTLE ONSHORE FLOW. WILL GO WITH GFS SOLUTION AS RIDGE SHOULD BE STRONGER ONCE CURRENT SYSTEM NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND MOVES THROUGH. ON THU THERMAL TROUGH OVER SW ORE IN THE MORNING SHIFTS TO EASTERN ORE BY AFTERNOON. STILL WARM ON THU THOUGH COAST STARTS TO COOL AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS WITH INLAND TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME THU AND WED. KOSOVITZ .LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... ECMWF AND LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS ARE A BIT FASTER WITH SYSTEM MOVING INLAND THIS WEEKEND SO IN COORDINATION WITH NWSFO SEATTLE WILL PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH COAST SATURDAY EVENING AFTER 00Z WITH PRECIPITATION NORTH PART SUN AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO WESTERN WA. WILLSON && .AVIATION...CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL BE A MIXTURE OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF SHALLOW IFR/LIFR CIGS AND FOG. IFR/LIFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES SHOULD DISSIPATE ABOUT 16Z...LEAVING A SCT-BKN LAYER AT 3500-5000 FT IN MOST OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY UNTIL AROUND NOON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT POPS AST 0---1 PDX 00000 SLE 00000 EUG 00000 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES .WA/OR...NONE. && $$ MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT... Http://weather.gov/portland THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA. 182 FXUS63 KIWX 301541 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1035 AM EST TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE... UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND PCPN. MAINLY ADJUSTED CATEGORICAL POPS NORTHWARD TO CLOSELY MATCH STRONGEST RADAR RETURNS. SHARP PCPN GRADIENT ON NORTHWEST EDGE SO TAPERED TO LIKELY THEN CHANCE RATHER QUICKLY. LEFT FAR NORTHWEST DRY FOR NOW AS RADAR LOOPS SHOWING PCPN SHIELD STALLING. STILL FEEL THIS PCPN WILL SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS BEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE ALONG OHIO RIVER NEAR KSDF...A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. HAVE A LOW CHANCE POP IN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FROM STARKE TO ELKHART TO ST. JOSEPH COUNTIES. SPEED OF SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INDICATE PCPN WILL BE OF A SHORTER DURATION THAN PREVIOUS THINKING A DAY OR SO AGO. WILL LOOK AT 12Z GUIDANCE FOR POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT PCPN AMOUNTS AND ENDING TIMES ON WED. && .AVIATION... NOT MUCH CHANGE TO GOING FCST OTHER THEN PROBLEMATIC FOG DVLPMNT THIS AM FM FWA S AND E. DILEMMA IS HOW LONG TO HOLD ON TO IT AS LL MSTR CREEP STEADILY INCREASES THROUGH THIS AM. WOULD SUSPECT W/DAYBREAK...EMERGING INSOLATION IN TANDEM W/TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AHD OF EJECTING REMNANT TROPICAL SYS WILL MIX IFR CIGS/VSBY AT FWA OUT QUICKLY W/MID LVL VFR DECK LEFT BEHIND. OTHERWISE...OBVIOUS BUMP TO ARRIVAL OF PCPN AS SYS RAPIDLY LIFTING NEWD W/SFC ONSET OF CONSEQUENTIAL RAIN AT FWA THIS AFTN. ANOTHER PD OF MVFR/IFR CIG/VSBY POSSIBLE THERE THIS EVENING AS LEFTOVER DEFORMATION SHIELD PIVOTS THROUGH. && .SHORT TERM... 00Z GUIDANCE STRUGGLING W/HANDLING OF REMNANT KATRINA CIRCULATION. AS OF 06Z...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MID LVL FTR OVR SW TN AND WELL AHD OF 06Z PROGS W/A CONTD TYPICAL UNDERESTIMATE OF SFC LOW INTENSITY. COMPARED TO LAST EVENING...TS CYCLONE POSITION NE OF PROGGED POSITION AND LATEST HPC GUIDANCE BUT ALSO NOTED W/LATEST TREND IN 00Z GFS WHICH BY ALL ACCOUNTS SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON SYS AS IT ACCELERATES NEWD. STRUGGLE THIS MORNING AGAIN LIES W/WWD EXTENT OF PRECIP SHIELD AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE TN VALLEY TODAY BUT LOOKS TO BE A BIT EWD OF PREV EXPECTATIONS YET STILL A HEAVY RAIN THREAT SE CORNER LT THIS AFTN AND OVERNIGHT INADV OF MID LVL CNTR AND DEEPENING MSTR FLUX. WILL LEAVE THINGS PRETTY MUCH AS IS BUT WRN POP EXTENT MAY BE OVERDONE SOMEWHAT AT THIS POINT. WILDCARD OUTSIDE OF THAT LIES W/SFC TROF EXTNDG SWWD OUT OF UPR TROF OVR ERN ONT. 00Z NAM SUGGESTION OF CONV ALG THIS BNDRY LT AFTN/EVENING IN CONCERT W/STRENGTHENING LL MSTR FLUX HAS MERIT W/XPCD DESTABILIZATION UNDERNEATH INCIPIENT MID LVL DRY SLOT XPCD. ALTHOUGH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITHIN LEFT FLANK OF DECAYING TROPICAL SYS STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE FOR A VRY TIGHT QPF GRADIENT OVERNIGHT...NOTHING NORTHWEST TO 2 INCHES FAR SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE GOING TEMP FCST LOOKS GREAT W/AFTN RAIN ARRIVAL FAR S/SE AND DEEPENING CLOUD SHIELD S-N THROUGH THE DAY. && .LONG TERM... THE MAIN THING TO CONTEMPLATE FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME IS WHAT THE EFFECTS ARE GOING TO BE FROM KATRINA ON WEDNESDAY. WATCHING CURRENT SATELLITE PICTURES, KATRINA IS MOVING QUITE QUICKLY NORTH AND EASTWARD. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF KATRINA...UP NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH OHIO AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THEY MAY NOT BE HANDLING THE SPEED CORRECTLY OF THE MOVEMENT OF KATRINA. GFS80 MOVES KATRINA THE FASTEST ALONG THIS TRACK HAVING THE CENTER OF THE LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AT 12Z WED AND THEN OVER NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN VERMONT BY 00Z THUR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP TO MOVE KATRINA ALONG ON ITS PROJECTED PATH. WITH NUMERICAL POP VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALSO VERY LOW, HAVE PULLED ALL RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF KATRINA, OVER THE NEXT SHIFT OR TWO, POP VALUES AND AREAL COVERAGE COULD ALSO BE DECREASED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ALSO BE LESS ON WEDNESDAY THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT IF KATRINA WAS TO QUICKLY MOVE BY OUR CWA. WE COULD HAVE HAD SOME RAIN ON THURSDAY; BUT THE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS OUR CWA WILL WEAKEN AND ALMOST BE NON-EXISTENT THROUGH OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. 500MB FLOW IS FAIRLY ZONAL ON THURSDAY WITH BASICALLY NO INDICATION OF A TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE OVER OUR CWA FOR THE REST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD TO MONDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE TEMPERATURES. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASHLEY/HOLSTEN LONG TERM...LOTHAMER 054 FXUS61 KALY 301543 AAA AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1140 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY)...ISSUING FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO DEAL WITH TROPICAL RAINS FROM REMNANTS OF KATRINA. EVEN THOUGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS HIGH...THERE IS A THREAT FOR SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING FROM RUNOFF FROM HEAVY TROPICAL RAINS. RADAR WAS SWITCHED OVER TO THE TROPICAL Z-R RELATIONSHIP EARLIER THIS MORNING. && .LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN WARM SECTOR WITH REMNANTS OF KATRINA PASSING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION. && .AVIATION...VARIABLE SKIES ACROSS FORECAST AREA....MAINLY MVFR WITH LOCALLY IFR. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING TO IFR AS RAIN MOVES IN ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA. && .HYDROLOGY...ISSUING FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TROPICAL RAINS. PRECIPITATION WATER OVER 2+ INCHES. ANY CONVECTION CAPABLE OF DUMPING TORRENTIAL RAINS. MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING NOT ANTICIPATED. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...CTZ001-013. MA...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...MAZ001-025. NY...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT... NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084. VT...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...VTZ013>015. && $$ 136 FXUS66 KSEW 301545 AFDSEW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 845 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BRUSHING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM...MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER WESTERN WA TODAY AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM MONDAYS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AS AN APPROACHING WARM ADVECTION SYSTEM MOVES OVER SOUTHERN B.C. RADAR IS PICKING UP PRECIP MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF VANCOUVER ISLAND...OVER NANIMO AT 8 AM...THAT SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE NORTH INTERIOR. BASED ON THE SHOWERS TRAJECTORY ON RADAR...WILL TWEAK THE CURRENT FORECASTS TO BRING SOME SHOWERS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. 06Z GFS IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND SHIFTS THE THREAT AREA FOR PRECIP BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY...AS THIS WEEKENDS TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST S OF THE GULF OF AK AND THE FLOW ALOFT OVER W WA BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE PREVIOUSLY DRY 12Z NAM IS MORE PESSIMISTIC AND HAS SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW. .LONG TERM...LOOKS LIKE WE BIT ON A MODEL WOBBLE YESTERDAY. 00Z GFS AS WELL AS ECMWF HAVE MIGRATED BACK TO THE FASTER SOLUTION THAT APPEARED IN SUNDAYS MODEL RUNS. THE CURRENT SOLUTION BRINGS PRECIP OVER W WA SATURDAY...FROM A LARGE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING B.C....THEN DECREASES THE PRECIP SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST. RIDGING FOLLOWS ON LABOR DAY. THIS SOLUTION IS ACTUALLY MORE LIKE THE BEHAVIOR OF RECENT SYSTEMS THAN THE SLOW CLOSED LOW THAT WAS IN MONDAYS MODELS. WILL SEE WHAT THE THE 12Z GFS HAS BEFORE IMPLEMENTING THE FASTER SOLUTION IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. KAM && .AVIATION...RESIDUAL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. WDSPRD MVFR WITH TEMPO IFR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR AFT 18Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS N OF KPAE WHERE A WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES AND TEMPO MVFR CONDS THROUGH THROUGH 22Z. KSEA...MULTIPLE CLOUDS LAYERS...GENERALLY VFR CIGS TODAY WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z. S TO SW WIND 5 TO 10 KT SWITCHING TO N 10 KT AFT 00Z THIS EVENING. DTM && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && .KATX...VCP21/CSR21 OPERATIONAL. $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE 017 FXUS64 KSJT 301548 AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1048 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE... MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE AT THIS TIME. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO SKYCOVER TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MAINLY DRY VERTICAL COLUMN IN THESE AREAS...SO EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HERE. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE. 20 && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 310 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM... QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING...WITH KATRINA WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE OFF TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...AND ARE NOT TOO FAR ABOVE CURRENT DEWPOINT READINGS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LITTLE LIGHT FOG DEVELOP BY SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. LONG TERM... UPPER RIDGE TAKES CONTROL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH WET GROUNDS SHOULD HOLD THE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 90S FOR MOST AREAS. RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS DROPPING A FEW DEGREES. && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 99/99 462 FXUS66 KPDT 301550 AFDPDT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR 845 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...WE HAVE DECREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY IN THE OREGON BASIN FOOTHILLS TODAY. OTHERWISE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS LINGERING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE TWO STATE AREA BY MIDDAY. THE MODELS WERE INDICATING SOME MORE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT MAY AFFECT THE WASHINGTON CASCADES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. && PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND AN UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING RESULTING IN CONTINUED DECREASING WINDS WITH JUST LIGHT WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES AND TWEB ROUTES. THERE ARE ALSO SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE OUT ALLOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER ALL TAF SITES AND TWEB ROUTES BY THIS EVENING. 88 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 76 49 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 78 54 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 82 48 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 78 46 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 79 47 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 75 48 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 75 37 82 40 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 76 43 81 46 / 0 0 0 0 5J0 78 42 84 44 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 78 54 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. && $$ TI:GGG FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON 97/88 881 FXUS61 KILN 301550 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1150 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... REMNANTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA IS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF NASHVILLE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW RAIN SHIELD COVERS MUCH OF FA WITH A RAIN BAND WORKING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS BAND WILL WORK INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME THINNING TO THE EAST OF KATRINA. WILL WATCH THIS AREA OF THINNING AND ANY RAIN BANDS THAT FORM AS THIS AFT/EVE FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WITH THE RAIN BANDS WE WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL TORNADO SPIN-UPS. 0-3 KM SRH IS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 300 M2/S AND EHI AROUND 1. INSTABILITY WITH THE BREAKS COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG. MAIN THREAT AREA WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF I-71. CONTEMPLATED PUSHING WATCH A BIT FARTHER NORTH...BUT FFG GUIDANCE IS 3 TO 4.5 INCHES FOR A 6 HOUR EVENT WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE EXPECT FOR STORM TOTAL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES FOR POTENTIAL WATCH OR WARNINS. AS FOR RAINFALL EXPECT AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH WILL SET UP TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF I-71. A FEW LOCALS MAY SEE UP TO 4 INCHES. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF DEFORMATION ZONES EXPECT MORE SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH CONVECTION. MOST FOLKS WILL SEE AN INCH OR TWO BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN A VERY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME COULD CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED ALONG WITH ZONES. TIPTON && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 647 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) AVIATION (12Z-12Z)... REMNANTS OF KATRINA CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY PUSH NORTH. IFR CEILINGS BEGINNING TO EDGE INTO CWA. THESE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS STILL HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON KATRINA...HOWEVER SYSTEMS IS MOVING A BIT QUICKER THAN GUIDANCE. HAVE GRADUALLY TAPERED PRECIP OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SITES BY 06Z. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 340 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... LOW ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF KATRINA ALREADY UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE. THIS IS SIGNIFICANTLY QUICKER THAN EVEN THE LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS. THE FASTER GFS STILL APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS BUT EVEN IT APPEARS TO BE 3 TO 6 HOURS TOO SLOW. BASED ON STRAIGHT EXTRAPOLATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO...THE LOW SHOULD BE APPROACHING KCVG SOMETIME AROUND 19Z...ABOUT 5 HOURS FASTER THAN WHAT THE 00Z GFS IS SHOWING. ALSO...HEAVIEST RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LOW (WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED) BUT BASED ON THIS AND EXPECTED TRACK OF LOW...THINK HEAVY RAIN BAND WILL END UP A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER THINKING. THE 00Z MODELS SEEMED TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS...SHIFTING HEAVY RAIN BAND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST IN OUR FA THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY USED THE 00Z GFS AS A TEMPLATE FOR THE GRIDS...AND THEN JUST SHIFTED THINGS FORWARD A FEW HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HAVE HEAVIEST PCPN OVERSPREADING FA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION ENDS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT AND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF FA. STILL THOUGH...WILL HANG ON TO A CHANCE ON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MOST AREAS FOR CONSISTENCY/COLLABORATION PURPOSES. BASED ON FASTER MOVEMENT...QPF AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT BUT GIVEN TROPICAL AIRMASS...STILL THINK A SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. WILL CARRY JUST SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS WE SHOULD DESTABILIZE SOME THROUGH THE DAY. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...IN MORE FAVORABLE REGION OF LOW. WITH HIGH SHEAR VALUES...WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. WILL EXTEND FLOOD WATCH A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE WHITEWATER VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE MIAMI VALLEY. AS WE GET UP INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST...WILL CARRY HEAVY RAIN WORDING BUT IT APPEARS FFG VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH THAT FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED. AS IT NOW LOOKS LIKE BULK OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END EARLIER...WILL ADJUST END TIMES OF THE FLOOD WATCHES AND ONLY TAKE IT THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE SOUTH AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH. ALSO WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FASTER....THINK TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH TODAY SO WILL NUDGE HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR TODAY. SIMILARLY...WILL NUDGE UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AS WE SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 AVIATION (06Z-06Z)... RAIN BANDS FROM KATRINA HAVING A TOUGH TIME WORKING INTO SOUTHERN SITES THIS MORNING. HAVE PUSHED TIMING BACK AN HOUR OR TWO FOR ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...JUST FINE TUNED THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SOME IFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KCMH AND KCVG...THEREFORE HAVE ADDED THOSE TO TEMPO GROUP. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS TO MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK. (ISSUED 342 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005) LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE REMAINS OF KATRINA. A WEAK BNDRY/TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GFS TIME HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE...SO WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY. IN FACT...AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED DRY AS WELL...AS GFS TIME HEIGHT PROFILES STILL LOOK VERY DRY THROUGH MONDAY. LOOKING AT GUIDANCE AND HPC...HIGH AND LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLOOD WATCH FOR OHZ070>074-077>082-088 UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY. ...FLOOD WATCH FOR OHZ045-046-051>056-060>065 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. KY...FLOOD WATCH FOR KYZ089>100 UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY. IN...FLOOD WATCH FOR INZ050-058-059 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. ...FLOOD WATCH FOR INZ066-073>075-080 UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM... 513 FXUS66 KMTR 301552 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA 900 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SURGING INTO THE PACNW AND THE GREAT BASIN AN OFFSHORE PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED AS FORECAST. AT 8 AM THE ACV-SFO GRADIENT WAS 6.6 MB...UP FROM 5 MB AT THAT TIME YDA. WMC-SFO HAD DRAMATICALLY REVERSED TO 7.6 OFFSHORE...YDA IT WAS 3.4 ONSHORE. SFO-SAC WAS STILL ONSHORE BUT ONLY BY 1.1 MB...IT WAS 2.7 YDA. THE N-S GRADIENT EXTENDED DOWN THE CNTRL COAST WITH 2 MB SFO- SMX (0.9 N-S YDA). AS A RESULT SKIES HAVE CLEARED THRU THE ENTIRE DISTRICT AND ALL AREAS WILL ENJOY A WARM...SUNNY DAY. ITS A BEACH DAY. THE AIR ALOFT IS ONLY MODERATELY WARM AND INLAND TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT IT WILL NOT BE MUCH COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH 70S IN MOST PLACES AND PROBABLY 80S AT SANTA CRUZ. NE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE E BAY HILLS BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE ONLY 10-20 MPH IN MOST PLACES WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. THESE ARE ONLY MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS AND THE ETA INDICATES THAT THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO WESTERLY THIS AFTN SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WARNING FOR THE TIME BEING EXCEPT FOR THE EXISTING ONE IN NAPA COUNTY. THAT HAS VERIFIED AS NE WINDS ARE STRONGER UP THERE. NE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAKER TNGT...THERE IS A DISTINCT WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ALOFT SO ALTHOUGH RH RECOVERIES WILL BE LOW IN THE HILLS WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT. THE ETA FORECASTS 9 MB WMC-SFO AT 12Z WED WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE 10-15 MPH WINDS IN SOME PLACES BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT. THE AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WARMING ON WED...BUT BY AFTN A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN COASTAL AREAS. THE N-S GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER AS WELL. MAX TEMPS SHOULD THUS BE AT LEAST AS WARM WELL INLAND ON WED AS TDA BUT THEY WILL BE COOLER ON THE COAST...MAYBE MUCH COOLER IN AREAS WHERE THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS EARLY. WITH THE N-S GRADIENT WEAKENING...SANTA CRUZ IS THE MOST LIKELY SPOT FOR THIS TO OCCUR. THE ETA IS NOT REALLY FORECASTING A CLEAR CUT SOUTHERLY SURGE ANYMORE...JUST A GENERAL FILLING IN OF STRATUS ALONG THE COAST THU MRNG. THIS WILL SET UP GENERAL COOLING THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT ON THU WITH ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...THOUGH THE AIR ALOFT STILL DOES NOT COOL APPRECIABLY. AFTER THU THE DISTRICT WILL GO INTO A FAIRLY COOL PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROF PERSISTING OVER THE REGION THRU LABOR DAY WEEKEND... ACCOMPANIED BY A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF STRATUS...BEGINNING FRI MRNG...AND TEMPS NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE WEEKEND. && .PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...STRONG N-S GRADIENTS WILL KEEP ALL AREA TERMINALS CLEAR ALL DAY. LOCAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS THIS MORNING. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TDA...RED FLAG WARNING...FIRE WX ZONE 265 THROUGH NOON. SCA...PT ARENA TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: MARKKANEN MARINE/AVIATION: SELLERS NOAA'S NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO 902 FXUS65 KTWC 301559 AFDTWC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 900 AM MST TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO A MINIMUM AND KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. && .DISCUSSION...MOST EYES THIS MORNING ARE FOLLOWING THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA...BUT GIVEN THAT...THERE STILL IS NOT MUCH TO SAY REGARDING WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. 12Z KTUS SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A LITTLE MORE PW THAN YESTERDAY...0.94 OF AN INCH AS OPPOSED TO 0.90 OF 24 HOURS AGO. NOT A STELLAR INCREASE BY ANY MEANS. GOES PW IMAGERY LOOKS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH PW VALUES OVER THE CWA RANGING FROM 0.50 OF AN INCH TO 1.20 INCHES. DEWPOINTS AROUND THE AREA ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY UP FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S AT KSAD TO UPPER 50S AT KTUS AND KOLS. TO FURTHER BLUDGEON THE POINT THAT IT IS DRY OUT THERE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER MOST OF ARIZONA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE STATE TODAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE STATE...EVEN WITH THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY LIMITED TODAY. THE RIDGE MOVES ON COME WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING ITS TREK EAST...ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO SE AZ. THIS WILL DRAW UP SOME MOISTURE...BUT THE BEST INCREASE DOES NOT COME UNTIL THE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...CURRENTLY PROGGED TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. TAKING A GLANCE AT THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THIS MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD....DUE MAINLY TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. THIS WILL RETURN A CONSISTENT...ALBEIT LOW...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY FOR TUCSON AND POINTS EAST. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THESE THOUGHTS...SO FORESEE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT KTUS. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SMR WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON 741 FXUS65 KMSO 301600 AFDMSO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT 1000 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW THAT IS CURRENTLY FALLING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE NEAR BUTTE. UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500 FEET AS A POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MID AFTEROON AND PRECIP SHOULD END. ACCUMULATED SNOW SHOULD MELT BY DUSK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK AND HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO OTHER ZONES. && .AVIATION...BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FCA AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS EXCEPT FOR THE SNOWFALL OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE NEAR BUTTE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG BUT DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT. TROUGH AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE IDAHO-MONTANA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA TODAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND INSTABILITY DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST- CENTRAL MONTANA...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONGER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SQUEEZE OUT MORE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS MORNING. STRONG LIFT OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA PROGGED TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD BY AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END AROUND MID-DAY. COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...00Z NAM...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 00Z UKMET MODEL...FORECAST A UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND MOIST ZONAL FLOW. GFS AND ECMWF MORE AMPLIFIED AND KEEP JET STREAM FARTHER NORTH IN WEST-CENTRAL CANADA. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO HIGHER TERRAIN OF EXTREME NORTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH FAST FLOW...00Z NAM AND UKMET SOLUTION NOT AN UNREASONABLE. THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET IN SOME BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING GREATER AMPLIFICATION AND DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE AREA THURSDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA OF SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW AND SLOWING DOWN THE GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN MOVING IT INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. SOME SYNOPTIC FORCING IN AN AREA OF BETTER INSTABILITY POSES A THREAT TO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LEMHI COUNTY AND BUTTE/PINTLAR REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIMITING (KEY) FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE. LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL. HOWEVER...BEST MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHWEST MONTANA. AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACT TO AVIATION EXPECTED...SEE APPROPRIATE TAFS AND TWEBS. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. ID...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HENRY PREV DISCUSSION...CHURCH/MSJ AVIATION...HENRY 822 FXUS64 KAMA 301600 AFDAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1100 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE... 12Z AMARILLO SOUNDING REVEALS A 5000 FT DEEP WELL MIXED LAYER BETWEEN ABOUT 850MB AND 700MB. AFTER MIXING OUT THE LOWLEVEL INVERSION TODAY...WILL REQUIRE SUBSTANTIAL HEATING AND MIXING TO GET MUCH ABOVE 87 OR 88 DEGREES AT AMARILLO...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. UPDATED MAX TEMP GRIDS ACCORDINGLY...WITH A WHOLESALE LOWERING OF TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST BY A FEW DEGREES...GIVEN LACK OF CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE 25 TO 30KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT MIGHT KEEP TEMPS UP THROUGH MIXING...BUT AT ANY RATE...THINK MIN TEMPS NEAR 70 ARE TOO HIGH FOR THE SOUTHEAST GIVEN THAT CLARENDON REACHED 60 DEGREES THIS MORNING. GRIDS AND ZONES SENT. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ KRAMAR 229 FXUS61 KPBZ 301605 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1204 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REMOVE MORNING FOG. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 422 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... BASED ON RECENT GFS AND RUC MODEL RUNS AND HPC TPC AND SPC GUIDANCE...HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO WESTERN PA COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REGARDING FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU NOON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE TRACK OF KATRINA GOING THRU OHIO AND NW PA...CONCUR WITH HPC THINKING OF THERE BEING GENERALLY 2 INCH RAIN TOTALS WITH SPOTTY AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES. WITH SOIL CONDITIONS SUCH THAT 3-6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS ON THE ORDER OF 2.5-3.0 INCHES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WARRANTED. REGARDING WIND ADVISORY...WITH TIGHT ISOBARIC GRADIENT AHEAD OF KATRINA CENTER INDUCING SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND THE TIMING OF THIS ONSET THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GREATER DIURNAL MIXING POSSIBLE...CAN FORESEE WIND GUSTS OVER 40- 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN LOCATIONS JUST WEST/DOWNWIND OF THE APPALACHIAN RIDGES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AS EVIDENCED BY GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND DISCUSSED BY SPC. TO FULLY REALIZE THIS SHEAR HOWEVER...SOME SUNSHINE MAY BE NEEDED TO PROMOTE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO BE ISSUED BY 530 AM. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... ONCE KATRINA CIRCULATION EXIT THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS RECENT GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN. AVIATION... FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST EARLY THIS MRNG WITH PLENTIFUL LLVL MSTR UNDR MID LVL SHRTWV RIDGE...WHICH IS IN WAKE OF IMPULSE WHICH SPPRTED THE MON RA. KATRINA WAS APPRCHG THE SRN TN BRDR AS OF 06Z...AND WL CONT TO ADVN TO THE NNE/NE...SPREADING RA AND CONTINUED IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. SFC WND WL CONT TO INCRS WITH INITIAL GUSTS NR 30 KTS BY THIS AFTN. PROG OF DP LYR WND SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE...AND EXPECT LLVL WND SHEAR TO ALSO INCRS THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALNG TRACK OF LOW. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MDZ001 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR MDZ001 UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069 UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY. PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029>032 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029>032 UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY. WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041 UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY. && $$ 976 FXUS61 KLWX 301607 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1150 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE... ALL PRODUCTS RLSD. AS WAS STATED BY THE PRVS SHIFT...THE BIG QUESTION FOR THIS AFTN RMNS PSBLTY OF SVR WX. ATTM THE KLWX VWP IS QUITE WEAK W/ REGARD TO BOTH WIND TURNING AND SPD...AS OPPOSED TO CLOSER TO T.D. KATRINA AT KRLX WHICH SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER VWP. A WALK OUTSIDE RVLS AN ATMOSPHERE THAT IS JUICED W/ HUMIDITY. FOR SVR IT WOULD BE BENEFICIAL IF MORE CLD BRKS DVLP ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL VA SO A DIFFERENTIAL HTG BNDRY CAN SET UP TO HELP INTIATE CNVCTN. SPC CONTS TO HV CWA FM DC W AND S IN MDT RISK. WE'LL SIT TIGHT AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS. WOODY! .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT... BIG QUESTION FOR TODAY AND TNGT WILL BE SVR THREAT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO PA...WITH ALL OF THE BEST DYNAMICS TO THE NE OF THE LOW. THUS ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SMALLER CHANCES THROUGH EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY. JB && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FORECAST RATIONALE...PHASED SYSTEM SHOULD BE TRANSITIONING TO KATAFRONTIC FROM ANAFRONTIC WEDNESDAY AS THE MIDLEVEL SYSTEM PROPAGATES EAST. GIVEN THE HEALTHY LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE MIDLEVEL WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH. THIS SHOULD IN SOME FORM ALLOW FOR LOWERING HEIGHTS AND A REDEVELOPMENT OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL CONUS SURFACE HIGH FROM BUILDING IN. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE HOW MUCH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...SO KEPT IT OPTIMISTIC AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING THE TROUGH TO PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/INCREASING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES AND PLEASANT WEATHER SHOULD PRESIDE. ROGOWSKI && .AVIATION... HAVE MENTION LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEGINNING THIS AFTN THROUGH THIS EVNG. && .MARINE... SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT CRANK UP SOME...WITH BL WINDS OFF THE GFS AROUND 30 KT. FOR THIS SHIFT WE WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADV FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING TNGT AND ENDING LATE WED NGT WHEN THE GRAD BEGINS TO SLACK OFF. TIDE LEVELS ARE ONLY RUNNING ABOUT A HALF-FOOT ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THINK WITH SOME STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...WE WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS TNGT TIL LATE WED NGT. && $$ 848 FXUS64 KOHX 301608 AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1105 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...AT 10 AM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA WAS LOCATED 25 MILES OUSTH OF CLARKSVILLE...MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 21 MPH. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL NOON. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE MID STATE THROUGH 6 PM. HAVE UPDATED ZFP AND CANCELLED TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE HOISTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO TAKE CARE OF GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL REMAIN IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO STILL GUST AS HIGH AS 35 AND 40 MPH... WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEUA AND ALONG NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS FROM SPRINGFIELD TO DALE HOLLOW LAKE. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MORE TREES AND BRANCHES TO COME DOWN AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL 6 PM CDT AND A FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL NOON. $$ 04 158 FXUS64 KOHX 301608 CCA AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SPELLING IN FIRST PARAGRAPH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1105 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...AT 10 AM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA WAS LOCATED 25 MILES SOUTH OF CLARKSVILLE...MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 21 MPH. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL NOON. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE MID STATE THROUGH 6 PM. HAVE UPDATED ZFP AND CANCELLED TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE HOISTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO TAKE CARE OF GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL REMAIN IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO STILL GUST AS HIGH AS 35 AND 40 MPH... WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEUA AND ALONG NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS FROM SPRINGFIELD TO DALE HOLLOW LAKE. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MORE TREES AND BRANCHES TO COME DOWN AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL 6 PM CDT AND A FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL NOON. $$ 04 319 FXUS61 KRLX 301608 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1208 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE WEAK FLOW THE PRESS FOR WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP SO WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM EXTREME HOT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED. NO GOOD TAPPING OF GULF MOISTURE EITHER. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1003 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... PKB AND HTS PRECIP SENSORS REMAIN DOWN. KRLX-WSR 88D WILL REMAIN IN SUMMER DEEP CONVECTION PER LOCATION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND NOT GO TO A TROPICAL Z/R RELATIONSHIP. 13Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS CENTER OF KATRINA JUST SW OF KBNA WITH IT CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY NNE. SO FAR THIS MRNG...ALL THE MOD TO HVY RA RMNS OFF TO THE W IN WRN OH WITH OUTER BANDS TRAVERSING CWA. AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW STRENGTHENS THIS AFTN EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE TO OCCUR IN THE I-79 CORRIDOR S INTO THE COAL FIELDS. WHERE OVC CONDS CONT ALONG AND W OF THE OH RVR...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL WV MTNS...AND THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRNBR RVR. THIS INCREASES POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TSTMS WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR...0-3KM SRH NR 250M2/S2 AND 0-6KM WINDS OF 40-50KTS. OPTED NOT TO JUMP IN SVR WORDING YET...WL WAIT TO SEE HOW THE CLD PATTERN DEVELOPS BEFORE INSERTION. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BUMPED UP MAXT IN THE WIL-CRW-CKB CORRIDOR INTO THE LOWER 80S...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST LCL MOS. HIGH WATER CONTS TO BE A THREAT WITH PWATS ABOVE 2.0 INCHES AND H8 DWPTS IN THE TEENS...SO NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 655 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) AVIATION... GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE WINDS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY VEER AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS KATRINA LIFTS NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE MENTIONED THUNDER IN TAFS DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND THIS EVENING AS SYSTEM SHIFTS BY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 345 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (THROUGH TODAY)... TS KATRINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT EXTENDS WELL INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. IT IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATED THE CENTER OF KATRINA BECAUSE LOOKING AT THE SATELLITE DATA...THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION IS JUST EAST OF THE INTERSECTION POINT OF TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER...AS OF 3 AM IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS THE CENTER WOULD BE JUST WEST OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI...WELL DISPLACED FROM THE UPPER CIRCULATION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE INITIALIZED THE CENTER KATRINA TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AND THROUGH TIME ARE JUST TOO SLOW IN MOVING HER NORTHEASTWARD. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT KATRINA WILL TRACK THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TENNESSEE INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY TODAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO BY EVENING. THIS IS A LITTLE BIT FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS THINKING AND LATEST TPC TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD BRING A GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY...ALTHOUGH SHOWING A DOWNSLOPING EFFECT IN THE QPF. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT GET VERY WARM TODAY UNDER AN OVERCAST CANOPY OF CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVING IN THIS MORNING. CURRENT FLOOD WATCH IS A GOOD ONE AND WILL LEAVE IN TACT. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED THE REGION IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS DUE TO STRONG SHEAR WITH HELICITY VALUES IN THE 100 TO 200 RANGE. THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF HEATING BUT THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT COULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH ROTATION. OTHERWISE THE HEAVY RAIN IS MAIN THREAT TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDED 2 INCHES...AND TRAINING OF STORMS ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS. LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... OUR EXPECTED FASTER MOTION OF KATRINA AS COMPARED TO THE MODELS HAS IT MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY EARLY TONIGHT INTO EAST CENTRAL OHIO DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS...THE HEAVIEST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA WILL EXIT OUR REGION BY LATER TONIGHT... WITH SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS HANGING ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST DURING WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FOLLOW THE TRACK OF KATRINA...SO THAT SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA WOULD STILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAINS EARLY TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF WELL BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLOOD WATCH FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. OH...FLOOD WATCH FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. KY...FLOOD WATCH FOR KYZ101>103-105 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. VA...FLOOD WATCH FOR VAZ003-004 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. && $$ LONG TERM...AAR 098 FXUS66 KOTX 301611 AFDOTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA 910 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER EACH DAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... REST OF TODAY...SATELLITE INDICATES A WARM FRONT PUSHING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST THIS MORNING...THIS FRONTAL SURFACE IS FED BY A DEEP ZONAL FETCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE. ALSO WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP THE AIR MASS PREVENTING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE INCOMING WARM FRONT AND WHETHER THE LIFT ACROSS THIS SURFACE WILL OVERCOME THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BASED ON AGGRESSIVE SATELLITE AND RADAR RETURNS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWEST WASHINGTON REGION...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BLEED-OVER SHOWERS TO THE NORTH CASCADES. OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES TODAY. ALSO MINOR TWEAKS TO EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS. MINOR UPDATE TO STATE FORECAST PRODUCT AS WELL. /FUGAZZI && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z WED. /KOCH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SPOKANE 73 47 77 50 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 COEUR D'ALENE 72 44 77 47 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 PULLMAN 71 43 78 46 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 LEWISTON 78 50 83 53 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 COLVILLE 72 42 79 45 84 46 / 10 0 0 0 0 10 SANDPOINT 71 42 74 45 78 45 / 10 0 0 0 0 10 KELLOGG 66 45 77 48 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 MOSES LAKE 79 47 81 50 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 WENATCHEE 77 54 81 57 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 OMAK 76 47 82 50 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. WA...NONE. && $$ 916 FXUS63 KUNR 301614 AFDUNR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 1015 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR K2WX TO EAST OF KGCC TO NEAR KCPR. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS KRAP AREA AROUND 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND THEN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHLIGHTS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR LATER TIMING. STILL EXPECTING WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH...ACROSS ADVISORY AREAS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MT AND WY RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD APPROACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL A CONCERN BUT SHOULD BE ENUF AROUND FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE FRONT EAST OF THE HILLS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HILLS...WHERE SLOWER PASSAGE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE HIGHER. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL SD. ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. OTHER THAN CHANGES TO HIGHLIGHTS... TIMING OF WINDS...AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS IN DECENT SHAPE. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH KGCC KRAP AROUND 18Z. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TWEB ROUTES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WY...NONE. && $$ 414 FXUS66 KSTO 301618 AFDSTO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 918 AM TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... STEEP NORTH TO SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WAS SEEN FROM MEDFORD TO REDDING YESTERDAY REMAINS STRONG AND HAS TRANSLATED TO THE SOUTH, WITH IN EXCESS OF 4 1/2 MILLIBARS FROM REDDING DOWN TO SACRAMENTO. THIS HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SO FAR FOR MUCH OF OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS. SINCE THE DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT HUMIDITIES REMAIN VERY LOW, PREVIOUS ISSUANCE OF RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH TOMORROW AT 6PM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. NORTH WINDS & BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...ALONG WITH THE SHUTTING OFF OF THE DELTA BREEZES...WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING THE FLOW ALOFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN, WHICH WILL REESTABLISH AN ON-SHORE MARINE INFLOW AND RESULT IN COOLER MAXIMA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. RANDY HARTLEY && .AVIATION... WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF STRONGER NORTH WINDS IN THE KRDD AND KRBL AREAS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25KT RANGE. WINDS FURTHER SOUTH IN SAC/SCK AREA CONTINUE TO BE LIGHTER...BUT STILL 10-15 KTS. NO CLOUD OR WX ISSUES. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING...TODAY THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR FIRE WX ZONES 213... 215...216...263...264...266...FOR GUSTY NORTH WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. && $$ 064 FXUS63 KUNR 301621 AFDUNR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 1015 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR K2WX TO EAST OF KGCC TO NEAR KCPR. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS KRAP AREA AROUND 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...AND THEN INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHLIGHTS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR LATER TIMING. STILL EXPECTING WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH...ACROSS ADVISORY AREAS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MT AND WY RIGHT NOW AND SHOULD APPROACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL A CONCERN BUT SHOULD BE ENUF AROUND FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE FRONT EAST OF THE HILLS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HILLS...WHERE SLOWER PASSAGE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE HIGHER. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL SD. ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. OTHER THAN CHANGES TO HIGHLIGHTS... TIMING OF WINDS...AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY...REST OF FORECAST LOOKS IN DECENT SHAPE. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH KRAP AROUND 18Z. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TWEB ROUTES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WY...NONE. && $$ 430 FXUS65 KSLC 301621 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 1020 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS COLD FRONT FROM EAST OF RIVERTON TO ROCK SPRINGS TO KANAB WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST PUSH TODAY...REACHING AN EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO TO NORTHERN ARIZONA LINE BY EVENING. MEANWHILE...BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL SCRAPE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF UTAH AND COLORADO. LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM...SO REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOR FIRE DANGER GIVEN GUSTY WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND DRY AIRMASS. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS. && .FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS COME UP IN THE NORTH INTO THE 20S. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW 15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS GUSTING TO OVER 25 MILES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR SOUTHEAST HALF OF UTAH AND FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN WESTERN COLORADO. && .AVIATION...NONE. SEE SLCTAFSLC. && .SLC/GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FOR ZONES 201 AND 203 UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FOR FIRE WX ZONES 428>432-438-440>449. WY...NONE. && $$ BARJENBRUCH 230 FXUS65 KGJT 301622 AFDGJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 1020 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO OFFICE IS BEING BACKED UP BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT OFFICE TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT...SLCAFDSLC...FOR DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. && $$ BARJENBRUCH 522 FXUS65 KCYS 301624 AFDCYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 1024 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR A K2WX-KTMH-KBVR- KRKS LINE AT 15Z. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE CLOSE AT THAT TIME. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WERE SURFCE PRESSURE RISES OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3 MB. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES 0C OR LESS FROM WESTERN MONTANA TO CENTRAL IDAHO. AT THIS TIME THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE ENTIRE CWA BY 02Z. STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SOME LOCATIONS AT 15Z HAD GUSTS TO 30 MPH WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND A TEMPERATURE DROP. WILL STILL KEEP WINDS IN THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING FOR THE WEST PART OF THE CWA. THE HIGHLIGHT IS ALREADY VERIFYING AT KRWL AND MANY PLACES HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT AS OF 16Z. THE AIRMASS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MOIST IN THE NORTH PART OF THE CWA MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN THAT AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 300 AM... .SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY A WIND-PRODUCING COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THERE JUST ISN'T MUCH MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AND SO HAVE MAINTAINED THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST MAINLY NORTH OF THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER. MODELS ARE IN CAHOOTS WITH A LATE ENOUGH TIMING OF THE FRONT THAT TEMPS WILL HAVE TIME TO RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS AGAIN. THE NAM IS STILL SHOWING PRESSURE RISES INDICATIVE OF BORDERLINE ADVISORY-CRITERIA WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHEN THE FRONT PASSES THERE EARLY THIS EVENING. CLEARING OCCURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT AND WE'LL SEE A RETURN OF SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL 15-25 DEGREES FROM TUESDAY. POMEROY .LONG TERM...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO REASSERT ITSELF OVER THE REGION AS UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SLOWLY INCREASING THICKNESSES. TEMPS SHOULD MAX OUT ABOUT SATURDAY THEN BEGIN A SLOW TREND DOWNWARD AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND AREA COME UNDER INFLUENCE OF NEXT UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. GFS TRYING TO DRAW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROF EDGES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. DGEX NOT SO AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING BULK OF MOISTURE SOUTH OF CWA. WILL KEEP FCST DRY FOR NOW AND SEE IF FUTURE RUNS NECESSITATE NUDGING POPS UP. -RE- && .FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE LARAMIE RANGE WEST TO RAWLINS. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE AND RAWLINS...BUT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO GET GUSTY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATIONS IN NORTHERN NEVADA WHERE THE COLD FRONT PASSED THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE CURRENT SPEED OF FRONT...IT WILL NOT GET TO RAWLINS UNTIL NOON-1 PM...AND LARAMIE UNTIL AROUND 3 PM. THE LATE ARRIVAL WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET PLENTY WARM ENOUGH TO CAUSE HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO AROUND 10%. POMEROY && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY FOR FWZ292 THROUGH 296...LARAMIE RANGE AND WESTWARD. NE...NONE. && $$ WEILAND 504 FXUS66 KMFR 301625 AFDMFR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 920 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...FORECASTS LOOKED ON TRACK SHORT TERM WITH LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO THIN/MOVE OFFSHORE BETWEEN REEDSPORT AND COOS BAY. WITH A SFC RIDGE NOSING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW SHOULD BRING A DRIER/WARMER ARIMASS INTO THE REGION. NOTE...WFO MEDFORD IS UNDERGOING A MAJOR SOFTWARE LOAD TODAY ON THEIR OPERATING SYSTEM AND NWS EUREKA WILL BE CREATING MARINE... PUBLIC AND FIRE WEATHER TEXT PRODUCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...PZZ356-376. CA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...PZZ356-376. && $$ MJV ALSO VISIT THE NWS ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD 804 FXUS65 KPSR 301626 AFDPSR AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-310000- AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 925 AM MST TUE AUG 30 2005 SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE THE EXCESSIVELY HOT WEATHER TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE FROM MEXICO TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA THURSDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY LOWER EACH DAY THE REST OF THIS WEEK THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND... BECOMING CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BY LABOR DAY. && .DISCUSSION... SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE CREATING SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE/STABILITY ALOFT AND MOISTURE REMAINS CUT OFF TO OUR S. NOT EXPECTING ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE AREA UNTIL AROUND THURSDAY AS FLOW ALOFT...ESPECIALLY AOB H5...SWITCHES TO A MORE S/SELY DIRECTION AROUND WRN PERIPHERY OF REPOSITIONED UPPER RIDGE. MAY DECIDE TO BACK OFF A BIT ON SLIGHT CHANCES OF TSTMS FAR ERN ZONE 24 WED AS THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO SOON. HOWEVER GFS REMAINS INSISTENT THAT DOOR WILL OPEN WIDER FOR MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK OVER ERN THIRD OF CWA LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WILL MULL OVER THE POSSIBILITY OF INTRODUCING 10 PCTS MARICOPA COUNTY EWD FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPS FOR TODAY SHOULD STILL GET INTO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA...SO THAT STILL LOOKS GOOD. MERCURIES SHOULD BEGIN THEIR SLOW LOWERING PROCESS TOMORROW AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES DROP. FORECASTS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...NO UPDATES NEEDED. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN RESULTING IN EXCESSIVELY HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TODAY. THIS MEANS NOT QUITE AS HOT WEATHER TODAY...BUT IT WILL STILL BE EXCESSIVELY HOT DAY TODAY WITH AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CONTINUING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE FROM MEXICO TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA THURSDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER EACH DAY THE REST OF THIS WEEK THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BY LABOR DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES WEAKER. && .AVIATION... DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS. TAFS ADEQUATELY DEPICT CURRENT AND EXPECTED WEATHER FOR PHX...IWA...YUM...BLH AND IPL. SEE TAFS PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM TODAY FOR THE DESERT AREAS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...YUMA...AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ZONES 20 THROUGH 23...AND 25 THROUGH 28. CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM TODAY FOR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ZONE 31. && $$ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX ESTLE/ELLIS 665 FXUS66 KHNX 301628 AFDHNX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA 900 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...SOUTHERN PORTION OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS MOVING EAST OF THE SRN SIERRA THIS MORNING. HAVE ISSUED MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE WINDS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SJ VALLEY TODAY AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE IN RESPONSE TO COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. OTHERWISE GRIDS AND ZONES REMAIN ON TRACK WITH LOCAL SOUNDING DATA SHOWING BULK OF COOLING BELOW 5K FEET...AND W-NW FLOW ALOFT CONTG INTO THURS. .LONG TERM...FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH TO THE WESTERN CONUS COAST BY SUNDAY...PUSHING THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. THE 00Z MODELS DIFFER ON HOW DEEP THE TROUGH WILL BE WHEN IT REACHES THE STATE WITH THE GFS BEING THE STRONGEST AND THE ECWMF BEING THE WEAKEST. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA AND KEEP A DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL CA THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL LOWER SLOWLY TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS AND DIURNAL THICKNESSES LOWER IN A DRY ATMOSPHERE. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z WEDNESDAY. SPECIFIC DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL. && .HNX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/ JSN/DS 890 FXUS66 KSGX 301632 AFDSGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 930 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN A LITTLE WITH LOW CLOUDS A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND. THE TROUGH DEEPENS A BIT MORE NEXT TUESDAY WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... MARINE LAYER STILL RATHER SHALLOW AT ABOUT 1000 FEET. WEAK COASTAL EDDY CLOCKED IN EARLY THIS MORNING. MESO ETA CONTINUES WEAK EDDY DURING THE MORNINGS THROUGH THU. MARINE LAYER EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1500 TO 1800 FEET WED. WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THICKNESS DROPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THU WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH MON...THEN DROPS A BIT MORE TUE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT INCREASES SLIGHTLY ON SAT BUT THICKNESS REMAINS THE SAME. CROSS SECTION SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THROUGH WED BUT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL AMOUNT TO ANYTHING. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS. && .AVIATION...LOW VISBYS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 17-18Z THEN IMPROVE QUICKLY. 100 FOOT CIGS WILL CLEAR BY THEN AS WELL. A WEAK EDDY AND STRONG INVERSION WILL HELP BRING BACK THE CLOUDS THIS EVE PROBABLY BETWEEN 04-08Z MOVING ASHORE AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER. VISBYS AROUND 2SM...BUT LESS ON COASTAL MESAS AND HILLS AND CIGS 200-500 FEET. CLEARING WED MORNING SHOULD BE 16-17Z FROM COASTAL TAFS. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...WHITLOW AVIATION...MM $$ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO IS ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO 930 FXUS66 KSEW 301636 AFDSEW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 930 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005...UPDATED AVIATION .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BRUSHING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM...MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER WESTERN WA TODAY AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM MONDAYS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AS AN APPROACHING WARM ADVECTION SYSTEM MOVES OVER SOUTHERN B.C. RADAR IS PICKING UP PRECIP MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF VANCOUVER ISLAND...OVER NANIMO AT 8 AM...THAT SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE NORTH INTERIOR. BASED ON THE SHOWERS TRAJECTORY ON RADAR...WILL TWEAK THE CURRENT FORECASTS TO BRING SOME SHOWERS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. 06Z GFS IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND SHIFTS THE THREAT AREA FOR PRECIP BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY...AS THIS WEEKENDS TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST S OF THE GULF OF AK AND THE FLOW ALOFT OVER W WA BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE PREVIOUSLY DRY 12Z NAM IS MORE PESSIMISTIC AND HAS SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION FOR NOW. .LONG TERM...LOOKS LIKE WE BIT ON A MODEL WOBBLE YESTERDAY. 00Z GFS AS WELL AS ECMWF HAVE MIGRATED BACK TO THE FASTER SOLUTION THAT APPEARED IN SUNDAYS MODEL RUNS. THE CURRENT SOLUTION BRINGS PRECIP OVER W WA SATURDAY...FROM A LARGE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING B.C....THEN DECREASES THE PRECIP SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST. RIDGING FOLLOWS ON LABOR DAY. THIS SOLUTION IS ACTUALLY MORE LIKE THE BEHAVIOR OF RECENT SYSTEMS THAN THE SLOW CLOSED LOW THAT WAS IN MONDAYS MODELS. WILL SEE WHAT THE THE 12Z GFS HAS BEFORE IMPLEMENTING THE FASTER SOLUTION IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. KAM && .AVIATION...WARM FRONT CLIPPING NRN WA COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE LOWER CIGS TODAY THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. EXPECT WDSPRD MVFR THROUGH 00Z WITH TEMPO IFR KPAE NWD AND KHQM. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR AFT 00Z EXCEPT KHQM WHERE MVFR AND TEMPO IFR WILL CONTINUE. KSEA...MULTIPLE CLOUDS LAYERS...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS TODAY THROUGH 00Z DUE TO INCREASING WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE. S TO SW WIND 5 TO 10 KT SWITCHING TO N 10 KT AFT 00Z THIS EVENING. DTM && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && .KATX...VCP21/CSR21 OPERATIONAL. $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE 452 FXUS64 KHUN 301638 AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 1138 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH ITS CENTER OF CIRCULATION IN THE VICINITY OF CLARKSVILLE. ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS A SHADOW OF ITSELF COMPARED TO ITS FORMER CAT 4/5 STRENGTH YESTERDAY...IT WAS CREATING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE 11 AM WINDS LOCALLY WERE FROM THE SW AROUND 20 MPH...AND 25 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA CONTINUED OVER THIS REGION. SOME BREAKS WERE NOTED VIA THE VISIBLE PERSPECTIVE OVER PORTIONS OF NW ALABAMA...AND 'CLEARING' NOTED ROUGHLY NORTH OF OF JONESBORO AR TO LOUISVILLE MS...TO CENTERVILLE AND MONTGOMERY AL TO WEST OF ATLANTA. AS STRATUS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA DEPARTS...DAYTIME HEATING OF A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO MORE CLOUDINESS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING ACROSS ALL AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE PRESENT GIVEN THE COVERAGE OF LINGERING SHOWERS FROM KATRINA... WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FOR OUR TENNESSEE COUNTIES AND ACROSS NE ALABAMA. WITH MORE SUN A POSSIBILITY OUT WEST HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPS FOR THE SHOALS AREA TO NEAR 80. WINDS WILL KEEP IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35 PLAINS 40 MOUNTAINS GOING IN THE NEW UPDATES. TEXT ZONE PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT...WITH GRAPHICS ON THE WAY VERY SHORTLY. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COLBERT...CULLMAN...DE KALB...FRANKLIN AL...JACKSON...LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON... MARSHALL...AND MORGAN. TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: FRANKLIN TN...LINCOLN...AND MOORE. && $$ RSB 622 FXUS64 KFWD 301641 AAA AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1140 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .AVIATION... VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT ALL TAF SITES. THERE WILL BE FEW TO SCATTERED CU THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION AND KEEP A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KNOTS. && .DISCUSSION... 240 AM. IN SHORT...NO RAIN IN THE NEAR FUTURE WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...BUT SLOWLY DROPPING BY THE WEEKEND. REMNANTS OF KATRINA TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT SUPPLY OF NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW...KEEPING HUMIDITIES LOW AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO MORE NORMAL VALUES. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL HAMPER RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AS WE GET A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND DROP TEMPS. AFTER LAST WEEKS STRETCH OF 100 DEGREE AFTERNOON HIGHS AND NEAR 80 DEGREE MORNING LOWS...THIS WILL BE MUCH MORE PLEASANT...DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN. FOR NOW...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL IMPROVE UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE WESTERLIES REMAIN TO THE NORTH...KEEPING THE GULF MOISTURE CUT OFF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 96 72 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 WACO, TX 97 70 99 70 / 0 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 93 67 95 68 / 10 0 0 0 DENTON, TX 95 70 98 70 / 0 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 94 71 98 71 / 0 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 96 73 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 95 70 98 71 / 10 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 96 70 98 71 / 0 0 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 98 72 99 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 75/42 969 FXUS65 KFGZ 301644 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 950 AM MST TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...A TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA AND A RIDGE OVER BAJA CA WILL COMBINE TO GIVE NORTHERN AZ A DRY WESTERLY FLOW TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED NICE WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH JUST A FEW MORE CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL REMOVE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW MEXICO. AS SUCH...THE FLOW WILL TURN TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO NORTHERN AZ. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN-MOST ZONES...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WILL MAKE AFOREMENTIONED CHANGES TO POP GRIDS. CK && .AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...DRY AIR AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR TODAY...NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. PETERSON && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 893 FXUS65 KFGZ 301645 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 950 AM MST TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...A TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA AND A RIDGE OVER BAJA CA WILL COMBINE TO GIVE NORTHERN AZ A DRY WESTERLY FLOW TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED NICE WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH JUST A FEW MORE CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL REMOVE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW MEXICO. AS SUCH...THE FLOW WILL TURN TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO NORTHERN AZ. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN-MOST ZONES...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WILL MAKE AFOREMENTIONED CHANGES TO POP GRIDS. CK && .AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...DRY AIR AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR TODAY...NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. PETERSON && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 529 FXUS65 KFGZ 301646 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 950 AM MST TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...A TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA AND A RIDGE OVER BAJA CA WILL COMBINE TO GIVE NORTHERN AZ A DRY WESTERLY FLOW TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED NICE WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH JUST A FEW MORE CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL REMOVE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW MEXICO. AS SUCH...THE FLOW WILL TURN TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO NORTHERN AZ. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN-MOST ZONES...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WILL MAKE AFOREMENTIONED CHANGES TO POP GRIDS. CK && .AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...DRY AIR AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR TODAY...NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. PETERSON && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 281 FXUS63 KDTX 301701 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 100 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 AVIATION... INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...COUPLED WITH THICKENING CLOUDS FROM KATRINA HAS ALLOWED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG (MVFR) TO PERSIST AT THE DETROIT TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES MAY TRY TO IMPROVE (6SM+) FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN DUE TO RAINFALL/NORTHERN FRINGE OF KATRINA...WHICH IS CREEPING NORTH FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE GONE WITH PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AT DET/DTW. HOWEVER...COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IF DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS IN. AS FAR AS FNT/MBS GO...NO PROBLEMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...INCREASING MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON...COUPLED WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...ISSUED 350 AM EDT TUE SEE LITTLE REASON TO MAKE ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO EXISTING FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PROVIDED FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH LAST EVENING...AND MAY HELP DO SO AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM KATRINA LIFTS NORTH...ALTHOUGH HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW TROUGH GETTING ABSORBED INTO CIRCULATION FROM KATRINA. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN LAKES REGION HELD AT BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WRFXX WINDS TENDING ONLY SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN GFS...AND SOME SORT OF BLEND OF THESE TWO MODELS PROBABLY IN ORDER...GIVEN BETTER CONTINUITY OF LATE THAN NAM. AT 500 MB...LOW JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY MOVING LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE KATRINA MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN LAKES REGION. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CREEPING NORTH INTO SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND RESIDING OVERHEAD TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH MODEST BULGING NORTHWARD INTO AREA OF THETA E RIDGE. FRINGE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA LIFT LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT MOST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THOUGH WRFXX AND GFS NOT SHOWING MUCH SUCH LIFT FOR SOUTHEAST MI. MUCH OF FORECAST AREA IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300 MB JET LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT....THOUGH...AND VERY MODEST 850 TO 500 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE CLIPPING SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS WELL...WITH MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN PLACE. THUS...WILL LEAVE IN CURRENT TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION. WILL TWEAK WORDING A TAD FOR LESS EMPHASIS ON THUNDER...HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AT BEST. && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ISSUED 350 AM EDT TUE THE EFFECTS OF KATRINA WILL FADE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION IS SLATED FOR ARRIVAL LATE THURSDAY...WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS IN ITS WAKE. THE GFS HAS TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP NORTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKES REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY-LHZ441-LHZ442- LHZ443...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ422-LCZ460...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444...MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. && $$ AVIATION...SF SHORT TERM...DWD LONG TERM....MANN 998 FXUS65 KVEF 301703 AFDVEF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 1000 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER TODAY ACROSS THE REGION OWING TO A SURFACE COOL FRONT THAT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY. && .UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED ATTM. TROUGH CONTINUING TO SHIFT EAST WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES SEEN ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3-5 DEGREES COOLER ATTM THAN YESTERDAY AND SHOULD FOLLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE PER THE CURRENT FORECAST. OVERALL MAIN QUESTION FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL BE IF ANY AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAY MOVE NORTH DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND WILL ADDRESS THIS IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...300 AM PDT...SHORT TERM...STRONG TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PACNW HAS ALREADY PUSHED A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BOTH NAM AND GFS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS IT PASSES THROUGH AND NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE WHOLE CWA...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW...BUT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY. KEPT ISOLATED POPS FOR MOHAVE...EASTERN CLARK...AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL. .LONG TERM...MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BUILDING BACK OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ECMWF AND UKMO ARE BOTH PREDICTING A CONTINUED DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUT GFS AND DGEX ARE DEPICTING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF IMPORTING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. SLIGHT CHANCE VERBIAGE WAS INTRODUCED YESTERDAY FOR EACH AFTERNOON THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WAY TO PLAY THE SITUATION. && .AVIATION...TAF ADEQUATELY COVERS ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT KLAS. && .VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NV...NONE. .AZ...NONE. .CA...NONE. && $$ JENSEN/DAVIS/RUNK 374 FXUS65 KVEF 301704 CCA AFDVEF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 1000 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER TODAY ACROSS THE REGION OWING TO A SURFACE COOL FRONT THAT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY. && .UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED ATTM. TROUGH CONTINUING TO SHIFT EAST WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES SEEN ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3-5 DEGREES COOLER ATTM THAN YESTERDAY AND SHOULD FOLLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY PER THE CURRENT FORECAST. OVERALL MAIN QUESTION FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL BE IF ANY AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAY MOVE NORTH DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND WILL ADDRESS THIS IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...300 AM PDT...SHORT TERM...STRONG TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PACNW HAS ALREADY PUSHED A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BOTH NAM AND GFS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS IT PASSES THROUGH AND NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE WHOLE CWA...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW...BUT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY. KEPT ISOLATED POPS FOR MOHAVE...EASTERN CLARK...AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL. .LONG TERM...MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BUILDING BACK OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ECMWF AND UKMO ARE BOTH PREDICTING A CONTINUED DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUT GFS AND DGEX ARE DEPICTING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF IMPORTING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. SLIGHT CHANCE VERBIAGE WAS INTRODUCED YESTERDAY FOR EACH AFTERNOON THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST WAY TO PLAY THE SITUATION. && .AVIATION...TAF ADEQUATELY COVERS ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT KLAS. && .VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NV...NONE. .AZ...NONE. .CA...NONE. && $$ JENSEN/DAVIS/RUNK 459 FXUS61 KPBZ 301707 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 107 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY FROM ZONES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND TO EXTEND WIND ADVISORY FOR MOUNTAINS TIL 06Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS....BUT ELEVATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 2000 FEET COULD HAVE GUSTS 40 TO 45 MPH THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1204 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REMOVE MORNING FOG. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 422 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... BASED ON RECENT GFS AND RUC MODEL RUNS AND HPC TPC AND SPC GUIDANCE...HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO WESTERN PA COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REGARDING FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU NOON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE TRACK OF KATRINA GOING THRU OHIO AND NW PA...CONCUR WITH HPC THINKING OF THERE BEING GENERALLY 2 INCH RAIN TOTALS WITH SPOTTY AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES. WITH SOIL CONDITIONS SUCH THAT 3-6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS ON THE ORDER OF 2.5-3.0 INCHES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WARRANTED. REGARDING WIND ADVISORY...WITH TIGHT ISOBARIC GRADIENT AHEAD OF KATRINA CENTER INDUCING SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND THE TIMING OF THIS ONSET THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GREATER DIURNAL MIXING POSSIBLE...CAN FORESEE WIND GUSTS OVER 40- 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN LOCATIONS JUST WEST/DOWNWIND OF THE APPALACHIAN RIDGES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AS EVIDENCED BY GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND DISCUSSED BY SPC. TO FULLY REALIZE THIS SHEAR HOWEVER...SOME SUNSHINE MAY BE NEEDED TO PROMOTE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO BE ISSUED BY 530 AM. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... ONCE KATRINA CIRCULATION EXIT THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS RECENT GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN. AVIATION... FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST EARLY THIS MRNG WITH PLENTIFUL LLVL MSTR UNDR MID LVL SHRTWV RIDGE...WHICH IS IN WAKE OF IMPULSE WHICH SPPRTED THE MON RA. KATRINA WAS APPRCHG THE SRN TN BRDR AS OF 06Z...AND WL CONT TO ADVN TO THE NNE/NE...SPREADING RA AND CONTINUED IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. SFC WND WL CONT TO INCRS WITH INITIAL GUSTS NR 30 KTS BY THIS AFTN. PROG OF DP LYR WND SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE...AND EXPECT LLVL WND SHEAR TO ALSO INCRS THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALNG TRACK OF LOW. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MDZ001 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR MDZ001 UNTIL 2 AM WEDNESDAY. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029>032 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR PAZ023-030-032 UNTIL 2 AM WEDNESDAY. WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR WVZ023-041 UNTIL 2 AM WEDNESDAY. && $$ 980 FXUS63 KFSD 301716 CCA AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1216 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES. STILL LOOKING AT A FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THE BETTER CHANCE SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN CWA ALONG WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...AND THIS SEEMS TO BE HANDLED IN GOING FORECAST...SO DO NOT SEE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD UPCOMING. 08 && .PREV DISCUSSION... CONCERNS THIS MORNING DEAL WITH PCPN THREAT WITH FRONTAL ZONE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED...POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR POST FRONTAL WIND...AND THEN WINDS DOWN TO TEMPERATURES INTO THE EXTENDED. LOW WAVELENGTH TROUGHING MOVING INTO NRN ROCKIES FM PAC NW EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SHARP RIDGE ALFT ACRS CNTRL PLAINS BEFORE DIGGING LOBE THRU NERN MN. WATCHING AC FIELD WITH A GREAT DEAL OF INTEREST EARLIER THIS MORNING TO N OF KFSD ACRS NERN SD...BUT HAS DISSIPATED TO NOTHINGNESS DURING LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WHILE THERE IS SOME WAA HELPING TO DESTABILIZE A BIT ABV 800 HPA...MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY HARD TO COME BY BASED ON EVNG RAOBS. ANOTHER IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE FROM PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH NOCTURNAL SURPRISES NEARBY IS A SOMEWHAT STRONGER RIDGE ALOFT...RESULTING IN NOT QUITE AS DEFINED UPR IMPULSE TO INTERACT WITH RETURN FLOW. REST OF TDA WL BE FAIRLY QUIET...WITH STRONGER S TO SE BREEZES. MOISTURE CONTENT OF LOW LVL AIR UP A BIT...BUT RECENT DRY WX AND SUNSHINE SHUD ALLOW TMPS TO BE AT LEAST AS WARM...AND LKLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ESPLY IN PREFRONTAL W. TONIGHT...WL WATCH APPROACH OF VERY DYNAMIC FRONTAL ZONE. SOME CONCERNS WITH WINDS POSTFRONTAL...BUT WITH FRONT NOT EXPECTED INTO WRN CWA UNTIL AFTER START OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION PROCESS...AND WITH THE STRONG 3H PRESSURE RISES OF 6-7HPA/3H WEAKENING RAPIDLY 06Z-09Z AS MOVE INTO CWA...WL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS... BUT EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEHIND BNDRY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PCPN. ENCOURAGING THAT MDLS GENERALLY DEAL WITH SYSTEM TONIGHT IN SIMILAR MANNER...BUT WRENCH AT LAST MINUTE IS MUCH SLOWER 06Z NAM. ALREADY HAD TRENDED THAT WAY BASED ON CONSISTENT Q VECTORS. CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT MAIN TROP SUPPORT WL LIFT NE...AND DESPITE INDICATION OF SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR ALFT OVR FRONTAL BNDRY...MORE OF A TAIL TO TROP UNDULATION SHEARING BY ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO INDICATE THAT LOW CHC POPS CONTINUE TO INDEED BE WARRANTED...WITH PCPN LARGELY TIED TO CONVERGENT FRONTAL LOCATION WITHIN GRIDDED DATASET...WITH HEDGE TOWARD BEHIND WHERE COOLING ALFT STARTS. AFTER LINGERING CLDS/PCPN WINDS DOWN MIDDAY IN WAKE OF TROUGHING... WL GENERALLY SEE TMPS RECOVER TOWARD WELL MIXED NUMBERS IN AFTN. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS OVR AREA FROM LTR WED NIGHT INTO FRI...ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL TEMP CHANGES. TREND OF CANADIAN/NAM OF LESS OF BACKDOOR COOLING BY FRIDAY SEEMS MORE ACCEPTABLE THAN OVERAMPLIFIED GFS. OTHER THAN TWEEKING WINDS AND KEEPING THINGS A LITTLE COOLER IN THE EAST INTO SAT MORNING... DID ADD IN A LOW THREAT FOR TSRA NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH APPEARS TO BE IN THE VICINITY FOR MONDAY/MON NIGHT. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ CHAPMAN 185 FXUS61 KRLX 301722 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 122 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .AVIATION (18Z TO 18Z)... VFR TO MVFR CONDS DOMINATE THE FCST AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVE SLOWLY NE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR EASTERN FOUR TERMINALS IS STRONG TSTMS GIVEN LOTS OF SHEAR IN THE ATMS. TO THE WEST...STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WL BRING MVFR TO PKB AND HTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFT MIDNIGHT...MVFR OVC CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH LINGERING RW IN THE MTNS. WET WX SHALL STOP IN THE MTNS BY 9Z. STRATUS (OVC015- 025) IS PROGGED DURING THE PREDAWN HRS INTO THE MID MRNG HRS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AN LOTS OF LLVL MSTR AT ALL SITES. CIGS LIFT TO VFR BY 15Z. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1208 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE WEAK FLOW THE PRESS FOR WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP SO WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM EXTREME HOT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED. NO GOOD TAPPING OF GULF MOISTURE EITHER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1003 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... PKB AND HTS PRECIP SENSORS REMAIN DOWN. KRLX-WSR 88D WILL REMAIN IN SUMMER DEEP CONVECTION PER LOCATION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND NOT GO TO A TROPICAL Z/R RELATIONSHIP. 13Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS CENTER OF KATRINA JUST SW OF KBNA WITH IT CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY NNE. SO FAR THIS MRNG...ALL THE MOD TO HVY RA RMNS OFF TO THE W IN WRN OH WITH OUTER BANDS TRAVERSING CWA. AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW STRENGTHENS THIS AFTN EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE TO OCCUR IN THE I-79 CORRIDOR S INTO THE COAL FIELDS. WHERE OVC CONDS CONT ALONG AND W OF THE OH RVR...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL WV MTNS...AND THE HEADWATERS OF THE GRNBR RVR. THIS INCREASES POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TSTMS WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR...0-3KM SRH NR 250M2/S2 AND 0-6KM WINDS OF 40-50KTS. OPTED NOT TO JUMP IN SVR WORDING YET...WL WAIT TO SEE HOW THE CLD PATTERN DEVELOPS BEFORE INSERTION. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BUMPED UP MAXT IN THE WIL-CRW-CKB CORRIDOR INTO THE LOWER 80S...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST LCL MOS. HIGH WATER CONTS TO BE A THREAT WITH PWATS ABOVE 2.0 INCHES AND H8 DWPTS IN THE TEENS...SO NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 655 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) AVIATION... GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE WINDS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY VEER AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS KATRINA LIFTS NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE MENTIONED THUNDER IN TAFS DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND THIS EVENING AS SYSTEM SHIFTS BY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLOOD WATCH FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. OH...FLOOD WATCH FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. KY...FLOOD WATCH FOR KYZ101>103-105 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. VA...FLOOD WATCH FOR VAZ003-004 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. && $$ AVIATION...29 108 FXUS65 KTFX 301731 AFDTFX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 1130 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION .UPDATE... TODAY...UPDATES TO ZONES PLANNED BY 930...IR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF IS OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND BEGINNING TO CROSS THE ROCKIES. THE AIRMASS IS STABLE WITH A CAP AT MID-LEVEL. PRECIP AND CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF TROF AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING AS THE TROF CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND MOVES EAST. WILL UPDATE TO FRESHEN FIRST PERIOD WINDS...POPS...AND SKY COVER. ZELZER && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 530 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005) DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...BUT A SLOW WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER MAKE A RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN MONDAY. MOST AREAS WILL BE CLOSE TO 30 DEGREES COOLER TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO MONDAY AFTERNOONS TEMPERATURES. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT BY LATE EVENING AS A SURFACE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL NIGHT OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT AND A COLD NIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. HIGHER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY GO WELL BELOW FREEZING AGAIN. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR READINGS BY THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE OVER GLACIER PARK...WHERE THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND LIGHT. BRUSDA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. MOISTURE AND ANY TYPE OF FORCING IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AN UPPER TROF BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS PERIOD DETRACT FROM FORECAST CONFIDENCE. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE AND A COMPROMISE SOLUTION OF A WEAK...RELATIVELY DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING...COOLING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR...OR A LITTLE BELOW...SEASONAL AVERAGES. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES. EK && .AVIATION... UPDATED 1730Z. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON HAS BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE STATE. EXPECT MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THE EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z. SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE TROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THOMSON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 68 43 76 49 / 20 0 0 0 CTB 65 40 72 46 / 20 0 0 0 HLN 69 45 77 48 / 20 0 0 0 BZN 70 37 75 42 / 30 0 0 0 WEY 64 23 69 25 / 20 0 0 0 DLN 67 36 75 43 / 30 0 0 0 HVR 70 44 77 49 / 20 0 0 0 LWT 65 40 74 46 / 20 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS 503 FXUS61 KILN 301738 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 138 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... REMNANTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS NEAR KBWG WITH IT'S ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD OVER ALL TAF SITES BUT KCMH AND KLCK. THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE FOR LONG AS IT KILN RADAR SHOWING PRECIP WILL FILL IN OVER KCMH AND KLCK. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT UP INTO TAF SITES AS KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY CLOSE TO KCVG...KILN AND KCMH ON IT'S WAY TO KERI BY 12 WED MORNING. WILL KEEP SIMILAR FORECAST GOING AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. FIRST 9 TO 12 HOURS WILL HAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER TAF SITES...THEN WILL BACK OF TO -RA BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS POINT THINK THREAT OF THUNDER IS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF TAF SITES. GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF FORECAST WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS. TIPTON && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1150 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... REMNANTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA IS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF NASHVILLE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW RAIN SHIELD COVERS MUCH OF FA WITH A RAIN BAND WORKING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS BAND WILL WORK INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME THINNING TO THE EAST OF KATRINA. WILL WATCH THIS AREA OF THINNING AND ANY RAIN BANDS THAT FORM AS THIS AFT/EVE FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WITH THE RAIN BANDS WE WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL TORNADO SPIN-UPS. 0-3 KM SRH IS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 300 M2/S AND EHI AROUND 1. INSTABILITY WITH THE BREAKS COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG. MAIN THREAT AREA WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF I-71. CONTEMPLATED PUSHING WATCH A BIT FARTHER NORTH...BUT FFG GUIDANCE IS 3 TO 4.5 INCHES FOR A 6 HOUR EVENT WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE EXPECT FOR STORM TOTAL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES FOR POTENTIAL WATCH OR WARNINS. AS FOR RAINFALL EXPECT AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH WILL SET UP TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF I-71. A FEW LOCALS MAY SEE UP TO 4 INCHES. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF DEFORMATION ZONES EXPECT MORE SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH CONVECTION. MOST FOLKS WILL SEE AN INCH OR TWO BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN A VERY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME COULD CREATE FLOODING PROBLEMS. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED ALONG WITH ZONES. TIPTON PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 647 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) AVIATION (12Z-12Z)... REMNANTS OF KATRINA CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY PUSH NORTH. IFR CEILINGS BEGINNING TO EDGE INTO CWA. THESE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFS STILL HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON KATRINA...HOWEVER SYSTEMS IS MOVING A BIT QUICKER THAN GUIDANCE. HAVE GRADUALLY TAPERED PRECIP OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SITES BY 06Z. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 340 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... LOW ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF KATRINA ALREADY UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE. THIS IS SIGNIFICANTLY QUICKER THAN EVEN THE LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS. THE FASTER GFS STILL APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS BUT EVEN IT APPEARS TO BE 3 TO 6 HOURS TOO SLOW. BASED ON STRAIGHT EXTRAPOLATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO...THE LOW SHOULD BE APPROACHING KCVG SOMETIME AROUND 19Z...ABOUT 5 HOURS FASTER THAN WHAT THE 00Z GFS IS SHOWING. ALSO...HEAVIEST RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF LOW (WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED) BUT BASED ON THIS AND EXPECTED TRACK OF LOW...THINK HEAVY RAIN BAND WILL END UP A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER THINKING. THE 00Z MODELS SEEMED TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS...SHIFTING HEAVY RAIN BAND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST IN OUR FA THROUGH TONIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY USED THE 00Z GFS AS A TEMPLATE FOR THE GRIDS...AND THEN JUST SHIFTED THINGS FORWARD A FEW HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HAVE HEAVIEST PCPN OVERSPREADING FA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF PRECIPITATION ENDS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT AND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF FA. STILL THOUGH...WILL HANG ON TO A CHANCE ON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MOST AREAS FOR CONSISTENCY/COLLABORATION PURPOSES. BASED ON FASTER MOVEMENT...QPF AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT BUT GIVEN TROPICAL AIRMASS...STILL THINK A SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. WILL CARRY JUST SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND THEN ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS WE SHOULD DESTABILIZE SOME THROUGH THE DAY. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...IN MORE FAVORABLE REGION OF LOW. WITH HIGH SHEAR VALUES...WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. WILL EXTEND FLOOD WATCH A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE WHITEWATER VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE MIAMI VALLEY. AS WE GET UP INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST...WILL CARRY HEAVY RAIN WORDING BUT IT APPEARS FFG VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH THAT FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED. AS IT NOW LOOKS LIKE BULK OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END EARLIER...WILL ADJUST END TIMES OF THE FLOOD WATCHES AND ONLY TAKE IT THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE SOUTH AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH. ALSO WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FASTER....THINK TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH TODAY SO WILL NUDGE HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR TODAY. SIMILARLY...WILL NUDGE UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AS WE SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 AVIATION (06Z-06Z)... RAIN BANDS FROM KATRINA HAVING A TOUGH TIME WORKING INTO SOUTHERN SITES THIS MORNING. HAVE PUSHED TIMING BACK AN HOUR OR TWO FOR ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...JUST FINE TUNED THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SOME IFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KCMH AND KCVG...THEREFORE HAVE ADDED THOSE TO TEMPO GROUP. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS TO MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK. (ISSUED 342 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005) LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE REMAINS OF KATRINA. A WEAK BNDRY/TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GFS TIME HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE...SO WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY. IN FACT...AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED DRY AS WELL...AS GFS TIME HEIGHT PROFILES STILL LOOK VERY DRY THROUGH MONDAY. LOOKING AT GUIDANCE AND HPC...HIGH AND LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ 901 FXUS66 KMTR 301743 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA 1043 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 UPDATED AVIATION .DISCUSSION...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SURGING INTO THE PACNW AND THE GREAT BASIN AN OFFSHORE PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED AS FORECAST. AT 8 AM THE ACV-SFO GRADIENT WAS 6.6 MB...UP FROM 5 MB AT THAT TIME YDA. WMC-SFO HAD DRAMATICALLY REVERSED TO 7.6 OFFSHORE...YDA IT WAS 3.4 ONSHORE. SFO-SAC WAS STILL ONSHORE BUT ONLY BY 1.1 MB...IT WAS 2.7 YDA. THE N-S GRADIENT EXTENDED DOWN THE CNTRL COAST WITH 2 MB SFO- SMX (0.9 N-S YDA). AS A RESULT SKIES HAVE CLEARED THRU THE ENTIRE DISTRICT AND ALL AREAS WILL ENJOY A WARM...SUNNY DAY. ITS A BEACH DAY. THE AIR ALOFT IS ONLY MODERATELY WARM AND INLAND TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...BUT IT WILL NOT BE MUCH COOLER AT THE BEACHES WITH 70S IN MOST PLACES AND PROBABLY 80S AT SANTA CRUZ. NE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE E BAY HILLS BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE ONLY 10-20 MPH IN MOST PLACES WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. THESE ARE ONLY MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS AND THE ETA INDICATES THAT THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO WESTERLY THIS AFTN SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WARNING FOR THE TIME BEING EXCEPT FOR THE EXISTING ONE IN NAPA COUNTY. THAT HAS VERIFIED AS NE WINDS ARE STRONGER UP THERE. NE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAKER TNGT...THERE IS A DISTINCT WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ALOFT SO ALTHOUGH RH RECOVERIES WILL BE LOW IN THE HILLS WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT. THE ETA FORECASTS 9 MB WMC-SFO AT 12Z WED WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE 10-15 MPH WINDS IN SOME PLACES BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT. THE AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WARMING ON WED...BUT BY AFTN A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN COASTAL AREAS. THE N-S GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER AS WELL. MAX TEMPS SHOULD THUS BE AT LEAST AS WARM WELL INLAND ON WED AS TDA BUT THEY WILL BE COOLER ON THE COAST...MAYBE MUCH COOLER IN AREAS WHERE THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS EARLY. WITH THE N-S GRADIENT WEAKENING...SANTA CRUZ IS THE MOST LIKELY SPOT FOR THIS TO OCCUR. THE ETA IS NOT REALLY FORECASTING A CLEAR CUT SOUTHERLY SURGE ANYMORE...JUST A GENERAL FILLING IN OF STRATUS ALONG THE COAST THU MRNG. THIS WILL SET UP GENERAL COOLING THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT ON THU WITH ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...THOUGH THE AIR ALOFT STILL DOES NOT COOL APPRECIABLY. AFTER THU THE DISTRICT WILL GO INTO A FAIRLY COOL PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROF PERSISTING OVER THE REGION THRU LABOR DAY WEEKEND... ACCOMPANIED BY A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOTS OF STRATUS...BEGINNING FRI MRNG...AND TEMPS NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THRU THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...THE BAY AREA WAS UNDER CLEAR SKIES LAST NIGHT AND REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING. A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT...ALONG WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...ERODED AWAY THE MARINE STRATUS DECK THAT USUALLY LOOMS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ALTHOUGH THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING...DO NOT EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN TONIGHT. AFTERNOON WINDS AT BAY AREA TERMINALS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT DUE TO THE OFFSHORE PATTERN. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TDA...RED FLAG WARNING...FIRE WX ZONE 265 THROUGH NOON. SCA...PT ARENA TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: MARKKANEN MARINE/AVIATION: SELLERS NOAA'S NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO 005 FXUS61 KCLE 301743 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 145 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .AVIATION (12Z-12Z)... REMAINS KATRINA TO MOV FROM SW KY TO JUST SW OF CVG 00Z MFD 06Z ERI ARND 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIG AND VSBYS WITH OCNL IFR CONDS THIS AFTN GRDLY LOWERING IFR OVER ENTIRE AREA AFT 00Z AS THE LOW APPROACHES THEN SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFTER LOW MOVS E AND PCPN ENDING FROM W TO E WED MRNG. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE (TODAY)... QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF AREA AND ADD SUCH WORDING TO PRODUCTS AND WEB. HAVE ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9AM FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...ANTICIPATING FOG WILL LIFT A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU THURSDAY)... EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO...WHILE MAIN FOCUS IS ON DETEORIATING REMNANTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE. AT THE SURFACE...A VERY WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM EASTERN MICHIGAN...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...WHICH WAS THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WERE BEING PRIMED FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION...WITH NAM LAGGING BEHIND IN TIME AND SPACE WITH REGARDS TO EXACT PLACEMENT OF PRECIP AND WHEN IT ARRIVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UKMET ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 00Z GFS...INDICATING AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF 2-3 INCHES FROM MANSFIELD TO CLEVELAND AND THROUGH ERIE PA. THAT BEING SAID...BOTH GFS AND UKMET ARE SLIGHTLY TOO FAR WEST IN THEIR 6HR PROG AS COMPARED TO ACTUAL CONDITIONS AS OF 06Z. NOT A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE...BUT THIS COULD MEAN THAT THE SHARP CUTOFF OF PRECIP ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF STORM COULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AT THE MOMENT. CONSEQUENTLY...THIS WOULD ONLY FURTHER ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS OVER EXTREME EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA...THEREFORE AM PLANNING ON EXTENDING THE FLOOD WATCH INTO ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK THE STORM TAKES...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE A GOOD SOAKING RAIN OVER 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WILL REFRAIN FROM EXTENDING WATCH WESTWARD TO INCLUDE TOLEDO AND FINDLAY...AS IT LOOKS LIKE RAINFALL TOTALS IN THAT AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1 - 1.5 INCHES. IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL THREAT...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ON EAST SIDE OF STORM IN WARM SECTOR BECOME RATHER INTERESTING AFTER 18Z TODAY. WHILE CAPES ARE NOT HIGH...SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES INCREASE DRAMATICALLY IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT...ROUGHLY EAST OF A YOUNGSTOWN TO MANSFIELD LINE. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY STORMS IN THIS REGION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ROTATE...AND WHILE IT CANT BE SAID THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEFINITELY HAPPEN IN THIS AREA...IT CANT BE RULED OUT EITHER. DREW IN AN AREA OF THUNDER FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WARM SECTOR TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT FEEL THAT REMAINDER OF AREA WILL SEE MOSTLY SHOWERY TYPE ACTIVITY. STORM TO RAPIDLY DEPART AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY CLEARING NORTHWEST PA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MAINTAINED PREVIOUS FORECAST OF QUICKLY DRYING THINGS OUT FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT IF CURRENT RUN OF GFS VERIFIES...EVEN THIS MAY BE TOO SLOW...AND MAY NEED TO DRY OUT NW PA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY WILL SEE RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. NO CHANGES MADE FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. LITTLE TO NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS THROUGHOUT SHORT TERM...GENERALLY NEAR MAV. && .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)... RELATIVELY QUIET EXTENDED WITH H5 RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. HAVE DRY FORECAST WITH PRIMARILY DIURNAL CLOUD COVER. AGAIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...WARMING TO AROUND/LOWER 80S BY MON. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...FLOOD WATCH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO TUE AFTRN THRU WED AFTRN. .PA...FLOOD WATCH ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES TUE AFTRN THRU WED AFTRN. $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...LEINS SHORT TERM...LEINS LONG TERM...OUDEMAN AVIATION...TK 260 FXUS63 KLOT 301746 AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1250 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS MORNING. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP EAST OF THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT. BUT SOME PRECIP MAY CLIP THE FAR SE SECTIONS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS GOING THERE. OTHERWISE SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST SIDE OF KATRINA MOVE THRU THE REGION. SFC PRESSURE STILL QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THE 00Z MODELS SHOW SO EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW INDIANA. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT IS THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH PUSHES THRU THE MIDWEST AND LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A SHOWER OR TWO NORTH INTO WI BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS HERE WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW THURS. MAIN AFFECT OF THIS FRONT WILL BE COOLER TEMPS THURS NIGHT INTO FRI...DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE 70S BUT BACK NEAR 80 OR THE LOWER 80S INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS FRI MORNING LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S POSSIBLY AN UPPER 40 AT THE TYPICAL COOL LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE CLOSE ON TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM THOUGH HIGHS NEAR 80 OR MAYBE EVEN ONLY UPPER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA TODAY WITH THICKENING CLOUD COVER. && AVIATION... OUTER CLOUD BAND FROM KATRINA OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF SC IN AREA IS MORE THAN LIKELY FROM THIS BAND THROUGH DIRUNAL HEATING COULD BE A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR. OTHERWISE JUST CI OVERCAST ALSO FROM KATRINA. MOVEMENT OF TS SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST BY 06Z SO THAT ONLY HI THIN CLOUDS OVER TAF AREAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH LATE EVENING WHEN GRADIENT SLACKENS. NO OTHER SIG WX OF CONCERN. && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LK MI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IL IN SHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. $$ 122 FXUS61 KRNK 301753 AAA AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 153 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF THIS AFTERNOON)... SENT A QUICK UPDATE FOR ISSUANCE OF TORNADO WATCH 760 EFFECTIVE UNTIL 01Z. SHOWERS AND LOW TOPPED TSRA BECMG MORE NUMEROUS ALONG/W OF THE BLUE RIDGE ALONG WITH BETTER HELICITY PER SPECIAL RNK UPPER AIR RELEASE. && .AVIATION... MAINLY HIGH END MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA WHICH WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHORTLY. THINK ONCE CONVECTION FADES THIS EVENING...WILL SEE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG FILL BACK IN GIVEN RESIDUAL LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN WAKE OF KATRINA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W WED AND SLOWLY ACT TO IMPROVE CIGS TOWARD VFR BY MIDDAY AFTER A MVFR/IFR START AT MOST SITES. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1005 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH KATRINA PASSING WELL TO THE W WHILE FEEDER BAND CONVECTION WORKS THRU THE SW ZONES AHEAD OF APCHG UPPER LEVEL DRY PUNCH. ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST SHEAR JUST OFF TO THE SW PER 50+ KT JET OFF FFC RAOB AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ALREADY ABOVE 200 OVER SW VA/NW NC AND SHOULD INCREASE AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS MORE SE AHEAD OF MAIN BAND WHILE SW JET ALOFT PICKS UP. HOWEVER BETTER SVR/TOR THREAT LINKED TO AMOUNT OF HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL BUT THE FAR SE CURRENTLY STUCK IN LOWER DECK ATTM. LOOKS LIKE WONT TAKE MUCH HEATING THOUGH IN INCREASING TROPICAL ATMOS AS APPEARS THE SE WILL SEE THE MOST...WHILE THE LEAST OCCURS W OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE BEST HELICITY MAY RESIDE. THUS EXPECT THERMODYNAMIC STRUGGLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY HEATING ENHANCING TOR THREAT WHILE FAST MOVING SHOWERS BRING GUSTINESS DOWN TO THE RIDGES. THUS WILL KEEP HIGH POPS GOING DESPITE BANDED NATURE COVERAGE AND INCREASE WINDS ON THE RIDGES WHERE MIX DOWN OF JET ALOFT LIKELY. SOME ISOLATED FLOODING STILL POSSIBLE WHERE/IF SHORT BANDS ENHANCE AND TRAIN BUT TOO LOCALIZED FOR A WATCH AT THIS POINT. MAY ADJUST HIGH TEMPS UP SOME WHERE ALREADY CLOSE TO FORECAST VALUES OTHERWISE WILL LET GOING NUMBERS RIDE FOR NOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 650 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) AVIATION... A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT IFR TO LIFR STRATUS TO SITES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INCLUDING ROA/LYH AND DAN. THESE SITES WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMROVE THIS MORNING AS THE FLOW VEERS TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH FLOW AND BANDS OF TROPICAL SHOWERS BEGIN MOVING THROUGH. I EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT BLF AND LWB...BUT WITH PERIODS OF IFR AS THE SAME TROPICAL SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. ALL SITES WILL LIKELY SEE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS REDUCED TO IFR. AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST...SHOWERS SHOULD END...AND ONLY MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS MOST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. BLF COULD SEE AROUND 15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 255 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... FINALLY STARTING TO SEE ENHANCED SHRA ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NC. STILL LOOKS LIKE BULK OF RAINFALL WILL BE WEST OF OUR FA...WITH BANDING SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS OUR FA...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BIG CONCERN TODAY WILL BE DESTABILIZATION AND TORNADO THREAT...GIVEN HELICITIES PROGGED IN THE 150-300 RANGE PER GFS. SPC ALREADY HAS MOST OF THE FORECAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN A MODERATE RISK. CAPES ARE NOT ALL TOO HIGH...AND THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP ATMOSPHERE FROM GETTING TOO UNSTABLE. STILL WIND ENERGY AND SHEAR COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SVR. QPF NOT TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP. THINKING PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DROP FASTER THAN PROGGED...GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING. DRY SLOT LOOKS TO WORK INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA TOWARD EARLY EVENING...WITH PRECIP SHIELD SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST PER GFS SOLUTION. THREAT OF SVR SHOULD BE OVER AFTER 00Z. GENERAL GRADIENT WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NC...DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES TODAY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DUE TO A LITTLE SLOWER TIMING ON THE RAIN BANDS MOVING IN AND ANTICIPATING A LITTLE SUN. WILL HAVE MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH TROPICAL AIR OVER THE REGION. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... REMNANTS OF KATRINA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY WED MORNING...OR CLOSE TO THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS. STILL A SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MORNING...SO COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...WINDS VEER MORE TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON...AND THE GFS IS ALSO SHOWING FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE AREA...WHICH IS REASONABLE IN THE WAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF OF A HURRICANE. I HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS GOING INTO WED AFTERNOON...BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE I THINK THEY CAN BE REMOVED. I ALSO RAISED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WED- ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT. I EXPECT WE WILL CLEAR OFF ENOUGH WED NIGHT WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TO SEE LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S IN VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. STILL HAVE STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY...THEN SEE CUMULUS DEVELOPING AND SPREDING OUT BENEATH THE STRONG INVERSION ALOFT. I STAYED CLOSE TO THE MAV MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ JH 483 FXUS66 KPDT 301759 AAA AFDPDT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR 1055 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...WE HAVE DECREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY IN THE OREGON BASIN FOOTHILLS TODAY. OTHERWISE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS LINGERING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE TWO STATE AREA BY MIDDAY. THE MODELS WERE INDICATING SOME MORE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT MAY AFFECT THE WASHINGTON CASCADES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AND THE PRESENT SHORT TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN DECREASING WINDS WITH LIGHT WINDS BY LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES AND TWEB ROUTES. THERE ARE ALSO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON WHICH WILL MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON AND EASTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT. POLAN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 76 49 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 78 54 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 82 48 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 78 46 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 79 47 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 75 48 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 75 37 82 40 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 76 43 81 46 / 0 0 0 0 5J0 78 42 84 44 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 78 54 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. && $$ TI:GGG FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON 97/88 702 FXUS63 KLMK 301800 AFDLMK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 200 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)... CENTER OF TD KATRINA JUST TO THE W OF BWG AS OF 17 UTC FCST TO MOVE UP NEAR LOU->CVG THIS AFTN/EVE BASED ON CURRENT 3HR PRES CHANGE PATTERN. VWPS SHOWING WINDS OF 40-45KTS ROTATING AROUND THE N/E SIDES OF THE CYCLONE AROUND 2-4KFT AGL. SO FAR SFC WIND GUSTS HAVE ONLY MANAGED TO REACH 35KTS OR SO AND IN FACT WINDS IN THE ADVISORY AREA IN SRN/ERN SECTIONS OF CWA HAVE BEEN SLACKENING OVER PAST FEW HOURS. WE'LL STILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING...BUT WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY WITH AFTN ZFP ISSUANCE. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR 40 MPH IN LOCATIONS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS EVEN GOING LIGHT/VARIABLE IN PROXIMITY TO CIRCULATION CENTER. HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED ALONG/N OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTN WITHIN DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE N SIDE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE. GFS PICKS THIS UP WELL. PCPN HAS BECOME MORE SCT IN NATURE OVER CNTRL/SRN KY WHERE LIFT AT 700MB IS NOT AS FAVORABLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS OVER SRN IND/LOU/LEX ZONES THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH SCT POPS DOWNSTATE KY. WILL MAINTAIN FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FOR ONLY SRN IND AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KY WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL HVY RAINS ARE. GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE OF UPWARD OMEGA AROUND 06 UTC TONIGHT ALONG/N I-64...AND LATEST NAM HAS SOMETHING AS WELL...SO WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING IN NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD STAY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. SOME OF THE CIGS COULD DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY PER THE NAM FCST SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCES. CLOUDS TODAY ARE LIMITING OUR INSTABILITY WHILE IN THE PRESENCE OF EXTREME 1KM SHEAR VALUES. BETTER CHANCES FOR HEATING/CONVECTION AND RESULTANT SVR WX WOULD BE OVER ERN KY INTO MID ATLANTIC WHERE SPC MDT RISK IS POSTED. NEW TORNADO WATCH IN FAR ERN KY. WE COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF SUNSHINE TOMORROW MORNING OVER SRN KY...BUT THAT WOULD BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY SCT TO OCNL BKN CU DURING THE AFTN HOURS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL TEMPER FCST HIGHS WED WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. CURRENT LOW-MID 80S SOUNDS FINE. CS .LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-TUESDAY)... WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE LIGHT UNDER INCREASING CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRYING WEDNESDAY EVENING SO ANY AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS WILL DISSIPATE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE A FLAT ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US. THE REMAINS OF KATRINA WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND...WHILE ANOTHER NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL HAVE DEPARTED THURSDAY...SOME RESIDUAL SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL KEEP THURSDAY WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY WILL BRING IN DISTINCTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR EARLY FRIDAY. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... A PERIOD OF FINE EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY SATURDAY WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL VEER EASTERLY BY LATE SUNDAY. LOW DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TO FALL PERHAPS INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE...WITH PERHAPS SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES...SO A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. JSD && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...FLOOD WATCH -> MIDNIGHT EDT FOR COUNTIES ALONG OHIO RIVER. IN...FLOOD WATCH -> MIDNIGHT EDT ALL ZONES. && $$ 801 FXUS66 KOTX 301802 AFDOTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA 1102 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER EACH DAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... REST OF TODAY...SATELLITE INDICATES A WARM FRONT PUSHING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST THIS MORNING...THIS FRONTAL SURFACE IS FED BY A DEEP ZONAL FETCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. MEANWHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE. ALSO WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP THE AIR MASS PREVENTING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE INCOMING WARM FRONT AND WHETHER THE LIFT ACROSS THIS SURFACE WILL OVERCOME THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BASED ON AGGRESSIVE SATELLITE AND RADAR RETURNS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWEST WASHINGTON REGION...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BLEED-OVER SHOWERS TO THE NORTH CASCADES. OTHERWISE EXPECT JUST INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES TODAY. ALSO MINOR TWEAKS TO EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND AIR MASS CHARACTERISTICS. MINOR UPDATE TO STATE FORECAST PRODUCT AS WELL. /FUGAZZI && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z WED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SPOKANE 73 47 77 50 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 COEUR D'ALENE 72 44 77 47 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 PULLMAN 71 43 78 46 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 LEWISTON 78 50 83 53 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 COLVILLE 72 42 79 45 84 46 / 10 0 0 0 0 10 SANDPOINT 71 42 74 45 78 45 / 10 0 0 0 0 10 KELLOGG 66 45 77 48 82 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 MOSES LAKE 79 47 81 50 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 WENATCHEE 77 54 81 57 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 OMAK 76 47 82 50 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. WA...NONE. && $$ 990 FXUS62 KMLB 301811 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 211 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... THROUGH TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE MOVING NELY ACROSS EC FL AT MID AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE HAS NOT DEVELOPED DUE TO THE STRONGER SWLY FLOW TODAY...BUT AREAS JUST TO THE SOUTH ARE STARTING TO COME AROUND TO THE SE...SO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AT LEAST A SLIGHT ONSHORE COMPONENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON AS MORE OUTFLOWS BEGIN TO INTERACT AND THE ACTIVITY MARCHES TOWARD THE EAST COAST/ATLANTIC WATERS. 15Z CAPE CANAVERAL SOUNDING INDICATES 5H TEMP HAS COOLED TO -5.5C FROM THE 10Z READING OF -4.3C...ADDING TO THE DESTABILIZATION...SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DEW POINT TEMPS REMAIN HIGH SO ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED AGAIN... WITH MANY AREAS NOT DROPPING BELOW THE UPPER 70S. WED-THU...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH AND TRAILING TROUGH FROM KATRINA WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWEST WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS USUALLY MEANS AFTERNOON TEMPS AT OR ABOVE THEIR CLIMO VALUES AROUND 90 INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. WED MAV POPS LOOK WAY TOO HIGH AT UPPER 70S/LOW 80S FOR WED THEREFORE WILL BE UNDERCUTTING THEM TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH FWC/NAM. ...THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE A LOT QUIETER THAN 2004 WHEN HURRICANE FRANCES PAID CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA A VISIT. FRI-TUE...LONGER RANGE MODELS...GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF...STILL HOLD THE TRAILING TROUGH FROM KATRINA OVER CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS AND CUBA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT FIRST THE GFS WAS THE ONLY MODEL DEVELOPING CLOSED LOWS/WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT NOW BOTH THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING CLOSED LOWS/WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SURFACE TROUGH. WEAK WAVES SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH LOOKS TO BE STRONGER DUE TO THE TIGHTENING STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING BETWEEN HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWED SOME DRYING OF THE LAYER LATE SUN AND MON AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST. SUN AND MON LOOK TO BE MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN AS SHOWERS/STORMS FORM ALONG COAST AND WORK THEIR WAY INLAND AS THE THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE...CURRENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW VEERS TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL WATERS. GRADIENT DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN AN OFFSHORE FLOW OF 15 TO 18 KNOTS. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD HOLD SEAS TO AROUND 2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 4 FEET OFFSHORE. && .AVIATION...SCT CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS IN TSRA REST OF THE AFTERNOON... ENDING BY AROUND 00Z INTERIOR AND 01-02Z NEAR THE EAST COAST. && .CLIMATE...ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS REACHED ABOVE 90 DEGREES AGAIN TODAY...MAKING THE STREAK 51 CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR ABOVE 90 DEGREES...FROM JULY 11 TO AUGUST 30. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 46 CONSECUTIVE DAYS SET IN 1981. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGH TEMPS TO REACH 90 DEGREES THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN ORLANDO. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE IF ANY STORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AFFECT THE AIRPORT EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO LIMIT HEATING ONE OF THESE DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 78 92 76 91 / 40 60 30 50 MCO 78 91 77 92 / 30 60 20 50 MLB 77 90 75 91 / 40 50 30 50 VRB 77 92 75 92 / 40 40 30 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GLITTO LONG TERM....WIMMER 921 FXUS63 KJKL 301822 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 221 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION BEGINNING TO KICK OFF IN DRY SLOT NORTH TO SOUTH IN EASTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. STORM ROTATION POSSIBLE WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. UPDATE ALREADY OUT TO ADD NEW TORNADO WATCH FOR EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CWA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 1025 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 FOCUS THIS MORNING WAS ON THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WHICH SAT PICS INDICATE IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF HOP AT 14Z. LATEST 12Z NAM IS STILL SLOWER THAN 06Z GFS ON THE MOVEMENT OF KATRINA...AND STILL LEAN TWD THIS FASTER SOLUTION. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE REALLY REDUCING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO FORECAST NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF KATRINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH WOULD PUT AXIS OF RAIN INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AS FOR WINDS...VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 25+ KNOTS WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. AS RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALSO STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADOS THIS AFTERNOON WITH 12Z NASHVILLE SOUNDING SHOWING 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES AROUND 900 M2/S2. THINNING OF CLOUDS EAST OF JKL-HAZARD SUGGEST THIS AREA MAY SEE TSRA DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. 425 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 CENTER OF KATRINA CONTINUES TO PICK UP SPEED AND TURN MORE TOWARD THE EAST. GFS...WHILE IT HAS HAD THE BEST OVERALL HANDLE ON THE STORM...IS RUNNING A BIT SLOW AND TO THE WEST AT INITIALIZATION. CURRENT MOSAIC SHOWS CONSISTENT BANDS OF MOISTURE NOW BEGINNING TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...OTHERWISE...DOWNSLOPING HAS MITIGATED A LOT OF THE PRECURSOR BANDS FROM KATRINA. LATEST GUIDANCE AND CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA HAS HIGHER FLOOD THREAT TODAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WATCH...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE A BIT LOWER OVERALL WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT...SO WILL FRESHEN UP SOME OF THE CURRENT WORDING...WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. KATRINA HAS BEEN ABLE TO HANG ONTO HER TIGHT GRADIENT A BIT LONGER...AND WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS NEAR OUR LAKE WIND CRITERIA...SO HAVE KEPT THIS GOING AS WELL. SPC HAS CONCENTRATED THE GREATER TORNADO THREAT EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FOR TODAY. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE DOWNSLOPING HURT ORGANIZED CELL FORMATION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPS...HOWEVER WITH SO MUCH SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A FEW SPIN-UPS IN THE HWO. LATEST GFS MOS SHOWS THE FASTER EXIT OF KATRINA...AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO ARGUE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...INITIALIZATION STARTED OUT A BIT SLOW...SO HAVE KILLED THE PRECIP PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ONLY HANGING ONTO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM. FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE EXPIRED BEFORE 6 AM WEDNESDAY...BUT DEPENDING ON WHAT MATERIALIZES TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...WOULD RATHER CONTINUE IT LATER IN CASE THERE ARE ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS THAT LAST BEYOND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES BEYOND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST INTACT...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. 1025 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005 02Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA NOW MOVING INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE HEAVIER RAIN AND HIGHER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NOW EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN TENNESSEE. CLOSER TO EAST KENTUCKY...THE FIRST RAIN BAND FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS CROSSED INTO THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND IS WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PINWHEEL NORTH. TO THE NORTH OF THIS...LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING THROUGH NORTH ALONG INTERSTATE 64. AREAS OF FOG ARE INTERMINGLED WITH THE SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS ARE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 70. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES THIS WAY. THE HEAVIER RAINS OF KATRINA WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT WITH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SEEING MORE THAN THE EAST DUE TO THE STORM TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A BIT FURTHER EAST DUE TO KATRINA/S CURRENT MOVEMENT...AND ALSO SOME DOWNSLOPING SETTING UP IN THE EAST. THIS ALL CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE GRIDS...TEXT PRODUCTS AND THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST THOUGHTS ON KATRINA...BUT THE BULK OF TEXT ZONES WILL BE THE SAME WITH THE MIDNIGHT WORDING TAKEN OUT AND NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES WORDING ADDED. 524 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LARGE BAND OF PRECIP ALONG A DEFORMATION ZONE LYING ACROSS KY IS BEGINNING TO LOSE ITS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SUPPORT...AND SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DIE OFF AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS BAND HAS PRIMED THE SOILS NICELY ACROSS MUCH OF KENTUCKY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF FLOODING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BUT NOW KATRINA IS TAKING AIM AT THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. OMINOUS BANDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS GA AND AL...MOVING NORTHWARD AT A FAST PACE. KATRINA WILL PUT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 65 AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDORS AT HIGHEST RISK FOR FLOODING. TO ADD INSULT TO INJURY...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW. FOR NOW SPC HAS PLACED OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT...25 PERCENT RISK CATEGORY. HOWEVER...SPC STATEMENTS HAVE INDICATED THAT THE AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK CATEGORY AS WELL. AFTER MUCH DISCUSSION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...DECIDED TO GO WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW. WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL ABOVE HURRICANE LEVELS INTO CENTRAL MS THIS EVENING. SO IT APPEARS THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR TOMORROW. WINDS ON FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN COMING UP. IN THE END...DECIDED TO GO ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND ISSUE THE ADVISORY. EXPECT THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE REALIZED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN MOST ZONES...AND AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOS POPS WERE PRETTY MUCH CAT LEVELS ACROSS THE BOARD. SO CAT POPS WERE ON ORDER...LEAVING THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. USED HPC QPF FIELDS FOR THE SHORT TERM. FOR TEMPS...MOS CAME BACK IN COOLER FOR TOMORROWS HIGH TEMPS...PARTICULARLY THE FWC AND MAV MOS. MET MOS REMAINED UNCHANGED. BUT THE NAM LOOKS WAY TOO SLOW WITH KATRINA/S MOVEMENT AND HAS NOT HANDLED HER WELL AT ALL. DECIDED TO TAKE TEMPS BACK DOWN IN THE WEST...BUT LEFT WARMER TEMPS IN THE EAST PER PREVIOUS SHIFTS LEAD AS DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP WITH WARMER TEMPS THERE. PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS THERE WAS GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE NUMBERS. EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KY THROUGH MONDAY...KEEPING THE REGION MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER...TREND OF THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER PATTERN AND NOW CUTS OFF AN UPPER LOW FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY SOUTH OF KY. FOR THE FORECAST GENERALLY USED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THIS SOLUTION AND THE CANADIAN MODEL WHICH IS LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP EXTENDED FORECAST DRY WITH LOW LEVEL E/NE WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND STAY CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE TEMPS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR... FLEMING...BATH...MONTGOMERY...ROWAN...MENIFEE...MORGAN...ELLIOTT... POWELL...WOLFE...ESTILL...LEE...OWSLEY...JACKSON...ROCKCASTLE... LAUREL...PULASKI...WAYNE...MCCREARY...AND WHITLEY COUNTIES. LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. && $$ MCLANE 777 FXUS63 KPAH 301828 AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 128 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... PLAN ON ENDING THE FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING RAINS MAY MAINTAIN MINOR WATER PROBLEMS FOR SOME OF OUR COUNTIES...BUT OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT NEW FLOODING CONCERNS. WRAP AROUND RAINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WERE ALONG AND EAST OF A PERRYVILLE TO NEW MADRID MISSOURI LINE. RAINS HAD LET UP CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY AS WELL. EXPECT THE RAIN TO SHIFT EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...WITH THE OVERNIGHT MAINLY DRY...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS. WAS A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT PATCHY FOG OVER SE MISSOURI. FOR NOW...WILL NOT MENTION BASED ON LOWER DEW POINTS SEEN OVER CNTRL/SCNTRL MISSOURI. RATHER QUIET WX PATTERN WILL UNFOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY / EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLATED TO COME THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS HINTS AT MINOR QPF OVER SE MISSOURI. NOT ENOUGH TO GO ON RIGHT NOW...TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FROPA. LATER SHIFTS CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK. AFTER THAT...MAINLY A QUASI NW FLOW PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE RULE AT THE SURFACE. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ 422 FXUS63 KMKX 301830 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 130 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON WEAKENING CUTOFF LOW NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR...REMNANTS OF KATRINA...AND SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL U.S. AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST GFS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK OF REMNANTS OF KATRINA AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION AND MOST OF THE CLOUDS SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER WINDS OFF THE LAKE AND SOME CIRRUS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. ELSEWHERE MORE PATCHY FOG EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY. TAIL OF VORTICITY FROM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA AFFECTS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RETURN MOISTURE STILL MARGINAL...DYNAMICS MAINLY NORTH...AND WEAK LOW LEVEL SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH KEEPS ANY MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOW. SHORTWAVE A BIT STRONGER...BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT QUITE AS STEEP. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NUT ANY QPF WOULD BE VERY LIGHT. FOG THREAT AGAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NO OTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SEEN THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSSIPPI VALLEY. JET NOT AS AMPLIFIED AS YESTERDAY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ HENTZ 256 FXUS61 KCLE 301831 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 231 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY)... GFS MODEL APPEARS TO STILL HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA AS THE MODEL DEPICTED THE PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA MUCH SOONER AND THE BEST ORIENTATION COMPARED TO THE ETA AND NGM SOLUTIONS. WILL STICK WITH THE GFS SOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. REMNANTS OF KATRINA MAKING ITS WAY NORTH AND THEN EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT FROM GFS AND RUC INDICATE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR FROM FINDLAY ACROSS THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES UP TO ERIE PENNSYLVANIA AFTER 00Z. THIS BAND WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 09Z TONIGHT. CENTER OF KATRINA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND BE OVER ERIE BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING AT WHICH TIME THE PRECIPITATION WILL START TO TAPER OFF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. DUE TO THE AXIS OF THE HEAVY RAIN EXTENDING FURTHER WEST...WE WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FLOOD WATCH. WE NEED ABOUT 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN 6 HOURS TO CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THE NEW WATCH AREA BUT WE FEEL THAT MAIN THREATS OF FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN THE URBAN AREAS OF FINDLAY AND TOLEDO. A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT EXISTS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SECONDARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION LOCATED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING FORCING DEW POINTS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 70. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FEED THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS MUCH LOWER AND THREAT OF FLOODING HAS A GREATER POTENTIAL IN BOTH RURAL AND URBAN AREAS. THE THREAT OF WIND WILL BE DIMINISHED AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA AFFECT THE AREA. WILL MENTION WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 30 MPH OVERNIGHT. 925 MB WINDS INDICATE 30 KNOTS WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM AND THESE STRONGER WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EXTEND DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH CONVECTION. REMNANTS QUICKLY PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY TAKING THREAT OF RAIN WITH IT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND FORCE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE 70S DURING THE DAY AND 50S AT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND FORCE SOME COOLER AIR SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING AND ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA AS WELL WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTING UP FOR A PLEASANT HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. I MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO THE TEMPERATURES TO MAKE THEM SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS TRENDING TOWARD SOME SLOW AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND COLD POOL WILL BRUSH BY THE AREA. && .AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... REMAINS KATRINA TO MOV FROM SW KY TO JUST SW OF CVG 00Z MFD 06Z ERI ARND 12Z. EXPECT MVFR CIG AND VSBYS WITH OCNL IFR CONDS THIS AFTN GRDLY LOWERING IFR OVER ENTIRE AREA AFT 00Z AS THE LOW APPROACHES THEN SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFTER LOW MOVS E AND PCPN ENDING FROM W TO E WED MRNG. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...FLOOD WATCH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTRN THRU WED AFTRN. .PA...FLOOD WATCH ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES THIS AFTRN THRU WED AFTRN. $$ SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...WCR 942 FXUS61 KRNK 301832 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 230 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... DAYTIME HEATING IS GENERATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LINES OF TSRA IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. BUT HELICITY AND SHEAR ARE BETTER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. STILL ENOUGH OVERLAP TO KEEP THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER GOING UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA GET PULLED INTO THE MID LATITUDE TROF...THE FEEDER BANDS INTO THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA(CWA). AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...A TRAILING PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE CWA BY THEN. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE MODELS TO KEEP POPS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN STALLED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS COMES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. EVEN THE LOW LEVELS(BELOW 850MB) DRY OUT BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY. EVEN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DROP BELOW ONE INCH. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM HEATING ON THUR. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... USING GFS AS RECOMMENDED BY NCEP AS A BASE FOR THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES IN THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE EVENTUALLY CLOSES OF AS A LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY TUESDAY. ON SATURDAY CWA IS IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 250MB JET COMING OUT OF THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROF. FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE SURFACE WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE GFS. THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. EXTENDED MODELS AREA ALSO SHOWING A COASTAL TROF FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO FLORIDA BY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS AND LIFT WITH THE FRONT SO NO POPS AS THIS TIME. AFTER SATURDAY CWA IS IN A LESS HUMID AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS. && .AVIATION... MAINLY HIGH END MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA WHICH WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHORTLY. THINK ONCE CONVECTION FADES THIS EVENING...WILL SEE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG FILL BACK IN GIVEN RESIDUAL LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN WAKE OF KATRINA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W WED AND SLOWLY ACT TO IMPROVE CIGS TOWARD VFR BY MIDDAY AFTER A MVFR/IFR START AT MOST SITES. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ AMS/JH 854 FXUS61 KCTP 301833 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 226 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... REMNANTS OF KATRINA LOCATED OVER WESTERN KY THIS AFTN AND SHOWING EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ALIGNING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH STRETCHES FROM N INDIANA/OHIO TOWARD N PA. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES RISING ABV 1000J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN PA UNDER THIN SPOTS IN OVERCAST. THIS AREA ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHOW EARLY SIGNS OF CONVECTION...AND SUSPECT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL FILL IN OVR THIS REGION DURING LATE AFTN/EVEN. AS LL JET ROTATES NORTHWRD THIS EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL OF SVR WX. STRONG SHEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE 0-1KM LYR...COMBINED WITH LOW LCL COULD EVEN RESULT IN ISOLATED TORNADOES. HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS MOST LIKELY OVER NW PA CLOSEST TO TRACK OF KATRINA. SREF DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF OVR 2 INCHES ACROSS EXTREME NW PA. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...HEAVY RAIN STILL A THREAT AS PWAT VALUES WILL BE RUNNING OVR 2 INCHES. HOWEVER...ANY FLOODING WOULD BE LOCALIZED AND LIKELY RELATED TO CELL TRAINING OR ANCHORING ON TERRAIN FEATURES. HEATING/DESTABILIZATION UNDER DRY SLOT COULD RESULT IN A SVR WX THREAT OVER SE PA ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...BACK EDGE OF KATRINAS REMNANTS WILL LIFT THRU REGION...BRINGING AN END TO THE RAINFALL BY EVENING. RIDGING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FAIR WX ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST MREF DATA SUGGESTS NO PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ITS WAKE...LARGE AREA OF HI PRES AT SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR AND SEASONABLE WX LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF PENN WHERE STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL FALL. A BAND OF STRONGER...SOUTHERLY LLVL WINDS (25-35KT BETWEEN 3-5 KFT AGL) WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...LEADING TO LLVL WIND SHEAR BASED GENERALLY AOA 1200 FEET AGL. SCT TSRA WIND LOCALIZED STRONG (>40K) SFC WIND GUSTS WILL FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENN...LIFTING NNE AND PHASING IN WITH THE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN AREA FURTHER NORTH. FROM 12-18Z WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF WHAT REMAINS FROM HURRICANE KATRINA WILL BE ~998 MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASING LLVL INSTABILITY AND MODERATELY STRONG 0-3KM WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A BKN BAND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TSRA FROM LATE MORNING ON ALONG THE SOUTHWARD TRAILING SFC TROUGH. MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE MIXED WITH LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE TSRA (MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA BETWEEN 14-18Z). && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...LAMBERT 891 FPUS62 KJAX 301836 SFTJAX FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-311000- TABULAR STATE FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 236 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 ROWS INCLUDE... DAILY PREDOMINANT DAYTIME WEATHER 6AM-6PM FORECAST TEMPERATURES...EARLY MORNING LOW/DAYTIME HIGH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 6AM-6PM - INDICATES TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO MM INDICATES MISSING DATA FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST FCST WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE AUG 31 SEP 01 SEP 02 SEP 03 SEP 04 SEP 05 SEP 06 ...NORTHEAST FLORIDA... GAINESVILLE TSTRMS PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY MOCLDY 76/89 75/91 73/90 72/89 71/88 70/87 70/88 POP 60 POP 40 POP 20 POP 20 POP 20 POP 30 POP 30 JACKSONVILLE TSTRMS PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY 77/91 75/91 73/90 74/88 71/87 70/85 70/86 POP 50 POP 30 POP 20 POP 20 POP 10 POP 30 POP 30 LAKE CITY TSTRMS PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY MOCLDY 76/89 74/91 72/90 72/89 69/88 69/87 69/88 POP 60 POP 40 POP 20 POP 20 POP 20 POP 20 POP 30 OCALA TSTRMS TSTRMS PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY MOCLDY 76/89 75/90 73/90 73/91 71/88 70/88 70/88 POP 70 POP 50 POP 30 POP 20 POP 30 POP 30 POP 30 PALATKA TSTRMS PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY MOCLDY 77/90 75/91 73/90 74/88 72/88 71/86 71/87 POP 50 POP 40 POP 30 POP 20 POP 20 POP 30 POP 30 ST. AUGUSTINE TSTRMS PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY MOCLDY 78/89 77/90 77/88 75/87 75/86 73/85 73/86 POP 50 POP 40 POP 30 POP 20 POP 20 POP 30 POP 30 ...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ALMA MOCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY 74/92 72/94 71/91 71/88 68/87 68/86 68/87 POP 40 POP 20 POP 10 POP 10 POP 10 POP 20 POP 20 DOUGLAS TSTRMS PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY 74/91 72/93 71/91 70/89 68/87 68/87 68/88 POP 50 POP 20 POP 10 POP 10 POP 10 POP 20 POP 20 ST. SIMONS ISLAND MOCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY 79/90 78/91 76/88 74/87 74/86 72/85 72/86 POP 40 POP 20 POP 20 POP 10 POP 10 POP 30 POP 20 WAYCROSS TSTRMS PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY 76/92 74/93 72/91 71/88 69/87 69/86 69/87 POP 50 POP 20 POP 10 POP 10 POP 10 POP 20 POP 20 $$ 658 FXUS61 KLWX 301839 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 240 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TNGT/WED)... MOST OF MY ENERGY HAS BEEN SPENT ON THE TNGT PD AND ANALYZING THE SVR THREAT. I REMAIN UNDERWHELMED BY THE VWP I'M SEEING FM THE KLWX 88D. AIR MASS OVR OUR CWA HAS A HIGH THETA-E BUT XTNSV CLD CVR IS LIMITING THE AIRS ABILITY TO ASCEND. I AM NOTING THAT IF BRKS DVLP STORMS COULD DVLP RAPIDLY...PRODUCING HVY RAIN...BUT IN THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA SPIN IS MINIMAL. WE DO HV TOR WTCH BOXES TO OUR S AND W. SPOKE W/ SPC FOR THEIR THOUGHTS AND WAS TOLD THAT THEY WL WAIT AND SEE WHAT DVLPS B4 ISSUING ANYTHING FOR OUR CWA. WL MAINTAIN PSBL SVR WRDNG IN ZNS. CHC POPS RMN ON WED AS KATRINA REMNANTS MV INTO NEW ENGLAND. WOODY! && .LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-TUE) EXTENDED FCST LOOKS PRETTY NICE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S AND 50S AT NIGHT. NO RAIN IS IN SIGHT THRU THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. ROSA && AVIATION...MAIN PROBLEM WL BE RAPID REDUCTIONS IN VSBLTY THIS EVE IN HVY RA WHERE TSTMS DVLP OVER AIRPORTS. && MARINE...SCA ALL WATERS. G30 PSBL ON THE CHES BAY BTWN SRLY GRADIENT AND CHANNELING. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS TNGT TIL LATE WED NGT. && $$ 535 FXUS63 KOAX 301841 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 140 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... PRECIP CHANCES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAD RETURNED TO MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON... WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS LENDING TO CUMULUS FIELD IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. NOT MUCH MORE THAN AFTERNOON HEATING TO GET ANYTHING GOING THERE...SO WILL JUST WATCH TO SEE IF SOMETHING POPS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ROLLING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TIMING...PUSHING THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH A RIBBON OF HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THINK BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE MORNING WILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA NEARER UPPER TROUGH. AFTERNOON HEATING MAY HELP SPARK STRONGER CONVECTION NEAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED AFTER WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS. SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...BUT DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY MINIMAL. MOISTURE RETURNS BY SUNDAY...AND GFS SHOWS SURFACE-BASED CAPES RISING ACCORDINGLY. THIS MAY OFFER THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS GFS HINTS AT WARM FRONT IN THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST THINKING SURFACE FRONT WILL SET UP NORTH OF THE CWA CLOSER TO ECMWF SOLUTION. UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. SHOULD HAVE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE NORTHWEST CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHEAST AS UPPER TROUGH INCHES CLOSER. THUS HAVE ADDED PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST...THEN SPREAD THIS SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS DOES SHOW A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT WAVES ROLLING INTO THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && DERGAN 268 FXUS61 KBUF 301843 AAA AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 245 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 SYNOPSIS... KATRINA IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND QUICKLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS IT BEGINS TO INCREASE IN SPREAD TO THE NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY ITS OVER SOUTHERN KY. A POKEY UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY HAS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO IL...WHICH HAS REMAINED STATIONARY FOR OVER 24 HRS. FURTHER WEST IS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER LOW ENTERING THE GULF OF AK. THESE LEAST TWO FEATURES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF SYSTEM AND 6HR ACCUMULATION SO WILL CONTINUE TO SOLELY WORK WITH THIS MODEL AS GUIDANCE. TONIGHT...BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVE CLOSER TO WESTERN NY. AS OF 2PM...AREAS IN THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE LOW IN SOUTHERN OH ARE GETTING NEAR .3 IN PER HOUR WITH 6 HR AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH OVER PARTS OF KY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES STARTING FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PROGRESSING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIAGARA FRONTIER BY 9PM AND TO KART BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. WEDNESDAY...THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH A WONDERFUL LOOKING COUPLET. LATEST GFS HAS THE STRONG DIVERGENCE A BIT NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO....BUT OVERALL THE MODEL HAS BEEN EVERY CONSISTENT IN ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK AS WELL AS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER HAS BEEN FORECAST TO BE OVER OR NEAR KBUF SINCE AT LEAST THE 08/28 12Z RUN WITH A SWATH OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM KBUF TO KART. A SHARP GRADIENT EXISTS...WITH PRECIPITATION DROPPING OFF DRAMATICALLY HEADING INTO CENTRAL NY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW CENTER QUICKLY TRACKS THROUGH QUEBEC AND SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ON THURSDAY FOR A BREAK IN THE ACTION. FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THROUGH ONTARIO. ALONG WITH IT WILL BE A SURFACE COLD FRONT. FOR NOW WILL PLACE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT FOR AREAS EAST OF KBUF IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH ONTARIO. CURRENTLY THIS IS BEST SEEN AT 300MB AND IS ONLY HINTED AT LOWER LEVELS AS AN INCREASE IN RH OVER CENTRAL NY ALONG WITH A SMALL BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 700MB. WILL PLACE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM ABOUT KROC EAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A RIDGE OVER NY SUN THROUGH TUES. FOR TEMPS HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS FOR HIGHS AND BELOW MOS FOR LOWS WITH ANTICIPATED DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE MORNING. && .AVIATION... CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF KATRINA OVERSPREADS THE AREA. CIGS WILL BE FIRST TO DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR...SOMETIME AFTER 00Z...EXCEPT OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE LOW CLOUDS DID NOT CLEAR OUT AT ALL TODAY. VSBY WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DROP...GOING MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH I HAVE NOT PUT LLWS INTO THIS AVIATION PACKAGE, IT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO ENCOUNTER THOSE CONDITIONS...MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION CUTS ACROSS WNY. && .MARINE... AS KATRINA MOVES NORTHWARD WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST AHEAD THE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT. OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL RESPOND MOST TO THE EASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH WAVES BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE LAKE BY MORNING. AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEAST THEN NORTH THE WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CIRCULATION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE HOISTED FOR THE NEW YORK SHORES OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... BASED ON RFC RIVER FORECASTS...IF WE REALIZE THE HIGH END OF FORECAST PRECIPITATION...WHICH WOULD BE A STORM TOTAL OF 4 INCHES...A FEW MAJOR WATERWAYS COULD HIT OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. IN THE BUFFALO AREA...BUFFALO AND CAZENOVIA CREEKS COULD GO BRIEFLY ABOVE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE BLACK RIVER COULD ALSO APPROACH OR GO BRIEFLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...BUT NOT UNTIL SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN DURING AN 18 TO 24 HOUR PERIOD MAY NOT EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...BUT WILL CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THE OTHER IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THIS SITUATION IS THAT THE RAIN WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WHILE EVERYONE IS FAST ASLEEP. IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ASSESS THE SITUATION THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. && .BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NYZ01>008-010>014-019>020-085 .MARINE...NONE $$ .SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/...ZAFF .AVIATION/MARINE/HYDROLOGY...NIZIOL 332 FXUS64 KSHV 301847 AFDSHV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 147 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... TROF OVER AREA WILL MOVE EAST BY THURSDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THOUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD... SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. MEAN RH WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 50 PERCENT. SURFACE WINDS EITHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES. THUS HEAT ADVISORIES SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED. QUITE WARM HOWEVER... WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER RANGES OF THE 90S. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 70 97 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 68 95 70 97 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 64 96 64 97 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 69 97 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 67 96 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 70 98 72 98 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 68 98 71 98 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 67 98 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 14/17 348 FXUS61 KBGM 301847 AAA AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 245 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURSDAY)... THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL WHILE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO DO WELL WITH THE FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO NHC GUIDANCE, AND THEREFORE CONTINUES TO BE THE PREFERRED MODEL TO FOLLOW FOR THIS FORECAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERRACT MORE WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THE LOW PULLS NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY WEDNESDAY, THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THRU NEW YORK STATE, EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES FROM THE FINGER LAKES, THRU THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION. EXPECT ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF DECENT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING, REACHING FAR NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE FOUND WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. THE AREA WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT (FINGER LAKES TO SOUTHERN TUG HILL) WAS ALSO THE AREA THAT RECEIVED LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM LAST NIGHT'S RAIN. EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS REGION OF AROUND 2 INCHES ARE NOT LIKELY TO CAUSE MANY PROBLEMS WITH SUCH DRY ANTICEDENT CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME, WE ARE NOT PLANNING ON ISSUING ANY FLASH/FLOOD WATCHES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HIGHLIGHT THE WESTERN ZONES THAT WILL RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT, A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUMP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, BRINGING DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG SHEAR WILL EXIST IN THE WARM SECTOR SE OF THE LOW CENTER, BUT MAIN QUESTION WITH REGARD TO CHC FOR SVR ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. IF WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN CLD COVER TO DEVELOP SOME INSTABILITY, THERE MAY BE A CHC FOR SOME SUPERCELL STORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH SO MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL OF COURSE BE ANOTHER CONCERN. PW VALUES INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 2 INCHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WHERE STORMS DEVELOP, A SHORT FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED FOR AREAS OF MOST CONCERN. THE LOW PULLS AWAY NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH DIMINISHING CHCS FOR SHOWERS. WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM TEMPS ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM (THU NIGHT - TUESDAY)... THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS RATHER QUIET COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM. AN H5 SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHC POPS NRN ZONES AND DRY ELSEWHERE. UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL MAKE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS NE US WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORING OVER REGION THEN MOVING TO NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH PERIOD WITH MODERATING TEMPS. RRM && .AVIATION (30/18-31/18)... CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE FROM KATRINA MOVES INTO REGION. A BROAD BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 23Z ACROSS NRN TAFS (UCA/SYR), DUE TO BR AND CIGS. BY 06Z, CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TO IFR IN MODERATE RAIN WITH AREAS OF LIFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 14Z, THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL END BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DUE TO HAZE AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. FOR REST OF TAFS (ITH/ELM/BGM/AVP), MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. BY 00Z, WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSISTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS DUE TO MODERATE RAIN FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD MIST AND LOW CIGS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. AFTER 14Z, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR. RRM && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .PA...NONE. $$ 864 FXUS62 KJAX 301849 AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 249 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF KATRINA HAS SET UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE 12Z SOUNDING. RESULT IS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE BREAKING UP WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEAT. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY WITH STORMS BEGINNING EARLY ALONG THE WEST COAST AND SPREADING TO THE EAST COAST DURING THE DAY. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR FLORIDA WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS OVER GEORGIA WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH. .LONG TERM...UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIVE INTO AREA BY THURSDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INITIALLY. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRY AIR WILL PUSH GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT HAVE GONE WITH BELOW CLIMO POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW STILL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WHICH SHOULD COOL TEMPERATURES BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIP FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REST ON WHETHER OR NOT INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE SFC HIGH. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE FLORIDA ZONES FOR THE TIME BEING. && .MARINE...BUOY REPORTS SHOW SW TO S WINDS NEAR 12-14 KT AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT. SEAS LOOK TO BE NEAR 4-5 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. PLANNING ON SCEC FOR HEADLINES TONIGHT THEN FOR WED GRADIENT RELAXES AS KATRINA CONTS TO LIFT NEWD. OFFSHORE FLOW TO CONT UNTIL COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY LATE THU WITH WIND SHIFT NLY ON FRIDAY. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK GFS WINDS SAT-SUN FOR NOW WITH NELY FLOW AROUND 15-20 KT AND SEAS APPROACHING 7 FT BY SUN NIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 74 92 72 94 / 40 40 30 20 SSI 79 90 78 91 / 40 40 30 30 JAX 77 91 75 91 / 40 60 50 50 SGJ 78 89 77 90 / 40 60 50 50 GNV 76 89 75 91 / 50 70 50 50 OCF 76 89 75 90 / 50 70 50 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...CAMP MARINE/FIRE WX...SHASHY 719 FXUS62 KGSP 301850 AFDGSP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 250 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... WEAK CONFLUENT AXIS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE ACTING ON INCREASING CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE NE WITH MAJORITY OF STORMS EXITING CWFA AROUND 00Z. A COUPLE SEVERE/TORNADIC STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SPC TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT TIL 01Z FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WILL CANCEL FLOOD WATCH AS STORMS MOVING ALONG AND TRANSLATING NE. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE TRAINING AND EASE THE THREAT OF FLOODING. CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED FLOOD PROBLEMS...BUT WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT TERM PRODUCTS. ALSO WILL ALLOW HIGH WIND WARNING/ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 4PM. AFTER 00Z...ATMOSPHERE GRADUALLY STABILIZES EASING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THUS...WILL LOWER POPS INTO CHANCE CATEGORY AND THEN GENERALLY BELOW 20% AFT 06Z. LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND LOWER INTO A STRATUS DECK BY EARLY MORNING. ALSO...WINDS SLOW TO DEVELOP MUCH OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD REMAIN TO PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FOG THREAT. WINDS VEER MORE WESTERLY WED MORNING AND DOWNSLOPE WILL GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOME CLEARING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR TEMPS. ONLY ISOLATED POPS MENTIONED ON WED OVER MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE OVER WESTERLY UPSLOPE AREAS. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTENING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SW TROUGH THAT APPROACHES THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WILL ONLY FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE TENN BORDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF STRONG SW TROUGHS TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND WILL CARVE OUT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE SUN/MON TIME FRAME...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS ADVERTISES ATLANTIC MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA ON DAY 7...ABOVE A RATHER STRONG SURFACE RIDGE. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE TIMING OF ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA...SO WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ON DAY 7. && .AVIATION... ALL AIRPORTS WILL HAVE THE THREAT OF CONVECTION UNTIL AROUND 00Z WHEN WEAK CONFLUENT ZONE SHOULD MOVE NE OUT OF THE REGION. INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS UNTIL THEN. AFTER 00Z...LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...SO EXPECT CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGHOUT NIGHT. FORECASTING CEILINGS TO LOWER TO AROUND 1800 FT BY 04Z AND THEN WELL INTO IFR TERRITORY BY 10Z. EXPECT THAT MIXING WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT...EXCEPT KAVL LIKELY TO LOWER TO AT LEAST 1 MILE. CEILINGS SLOWLY RISE AFT 12Z WED. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...TORNADO WATCH FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY. NC...TORNADO WATCH FOR NCZ033>037-048>050-052>057-059-062>072-082 UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY. SC...TORNADO WATCH FOR SCZ001>014-019 UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LG LONG TERM...LANE 957 FXUS62 KMFL 301850 AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...SURFACE RIDGE NOW OVER EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND WILL STAY SOUTH OF US THROUGH THURSDAY. H5 HIGH WEAKENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY AND RETREATS WEST. H5 TROF MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS BY THE WEEKEND WITH A LOW DEVELOPMENT NE OF THE BAHAMAS AND REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY. ANOTHER H5 TROF MOVES SE INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL TROUGH COMES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WED NIGHT AND REACHES CNTL FL FRI AND STALLS OVER S FL BY SAT. SURFACE RIDGE GETS PUSHED EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. WEAK LOW DEVELOPS N OF THE GRAND BAHAMAS ISLAND SUNDAY AND MOVES SW ALONG THE FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE GULF BY MON NIGHT. THIS LOW HAS TO BE MONITORED. WITH CONTINUED PWAT'S AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES IN SW FLOW, AFTN POPS WILL BE AT LEAST 40/50 PERCENT. THE HIGHEST POPS AND CLOUDINESS WILL BE THE FRI THROUGH MON TIMEFRAME. EMPHASIS SHOULD BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STATE WITH GENERAL FLOW FROM WEST TO EAST. && .MARINE...GENERALLY A SW/W FLOW LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH THU...BECOMING MORE VARIABLE AND LIGHTER AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES S FLA FRI INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST BEHIND THE TROUGH LATER SAT WITH A PICKUP IN SPEED AND SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC SUN. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 79 91 78 91 / 30 60 30 50 FORT LAUDERDALE 80 91 79 91 / 30 50 30 50 MIAMI 80 92 79 92 / 30 50 30 50 NAPLES 79 91 79 90 / 20 50 30 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ 18 617 FXUS64 KBRO 301851 AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 200 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CWA HAS MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR RECORD LEVEL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY. NEAR RECORD LEVEL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEDNESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE...BUOY020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 8 TO 10 KTS AND SEAS 2 FEET WITH A 13 SEC PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SWELLS SHOULD BE IN STORE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TEMPO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ALONG ANY SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 95 78 95 78 / 00 10 00 20 00 BROWNSVILLE 77 101 76 98 77 / 00 10 00 20 00 HARLINGEN 77 101 76 99 77 / 00 10 00 20 00 MCALLEN 78 101 78 100 78 / 00 10 00 20 00 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 103 78 102 78 / 00 00 00 00 00 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 92 81 91 81 / 00 10 00 20 00 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...63 MARINE/AVIATION...65 MESO...MARTINEZ 000 FXUS62 KTAE 301852 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 252 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA IS NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY CONTINUING TO MOVE TO NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 30 MPH AND CONTINUING TO DECREASE. HERE LOCALLY...A FEW TRAILING BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER OUR CWA WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY RESIDING IN THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS TODAY AS ALBANY HAS RECORDED A GUST UP TO 38KTS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GEORGIA COUNTIES JUST OUTSIDE OUR AREA TO THE NORTH. .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GFS IS ADVERTISING A "FRONTAL PASSAGE" THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF KATRINA AS IT HAS ALREADY TRANSITIONED TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS POINT. WHETHER THIS IS A TRUE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR NOT CAN BE DISPUTED...BUT NEVERTHELESS IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE USED THE GFS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO ITS GOOD PERFORMANCE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. TONIGHT...EXPECT CONTINUING TRAILING BANDS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP A 30 TO 40 POP CONFIGURATION WEST TO EAST FOR TONIGHT. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...HOWEVER NOT AS WARM AS THE 83 DEGREES SEEN AT TALLAHASSEE THIS MORNING. (WARMEST EVER MORNING MINIMUM AT TLH BELIEVED TO BE SEEN.) WEDNESDAY..."FRONT" STILL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA STARTS TO APPROACH OUR ALABAMA COUNTIES. SHOULD SEE BEST POP CONFIGURATION EAST OF A TALLAHASSEE TO ALBANY LINE WHERE 60 POPS WILL RESIDE FOR TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS DON'T QUITE CLIMB TO LEVELS SEEN TODAY AS EXPECT ONLY TEMPS TO BE IN THE LOW 90S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT..."FRONT" PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WEST TO EAST BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AND THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE 30 POPS IN THE LOWER SE BIG BEND AND 20 POPS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ARE NOTICEABLY COOLER...ESPECIALLY FAR INLAND AT NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S CENTRAL AND MID 70S AT THE COAST. THURSDAY...WITH THE FRONT NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND LOOSING WHAT IDENTITY IT HAD AS A FRONT...POPS DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A WONDERFUL START TO SEPTEMBER EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S BUT MUCH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. RH VALUES IN THE LOW 40S OVER ALABAMA AND LOW 50S IN FLORIDA. FRIDAY...EXPECT NEARLY A DRY DAY FOR FRIDAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE SE CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA TO WARRANT POPS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF 20 PERCENT. NICE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... AS THE PERIOD STARTS OFF...SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWINGS INTO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTY. THIS RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. FOR SATURDAY...WITH H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NATION'S MID SECTION THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTER MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY. THIS INDUCES A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR US AND REALLY DRIES OUT THE CWA. MEAN LAYER RH IN THE GFS DROPS DOWN INTO TH 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE...QUITE NICE CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST WEEK IN SEPTEMBER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S DURING THE DAY AND THEN A COOLING TREND BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGE NOW POSITIONED IN THE GFS AND DGEX TO BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS IS A VERY STRONG RIDGE...ON THE ORDER OF 1028MB. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH...OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION PROVIDING FOR SOME NICE COOLING CONDITIONS. HAVE ONLY SET 20 POPS FOR SUNDAY AREA WIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. HUMIDITY VALUES ALSO LOOK TO BE JUST A LITTLE LOWER. MONDAY...SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH PERSISTENT AND STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW. WILL LOWER TEMPS A CATEGORY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND CONTINUE 20 PERCENT POPS WITH A 30 POP DOWN IN DIXIE AND LAFAYETTE COUNTY DUE TO PROXIMITY TO A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THIS TIME...EVEN THOUGH THE DGEX AND GFS ARE INDICATING THIS WAVE...NEITHER MODEL IS BULLISH ABOUT CLOSING OFF A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AT 500 MB. WE ARE NEARING THE STATISTICAL PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON SO YOU CAN NEVER RULE OUT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL NOT OVERPLAY THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. COOLER NIGHT TIME LOWS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MINS DROPPING EVEN INTO THE MID 60S IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TUESDAY...RIDGE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES INTO FLORIDA. BROUGHT RAIN CHANCES UP TO 30 PERCENT AREA WIDE AT THIS TIME AND KEPT TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. && .MARINE...CURRENTLY NO SEA REPORT FROM THE PANAMA CITY BUOY...BUT AT LAST REPORT SEAS WERE CONTINUING TO BE 1 FT ABOVE WHAT THE APALACHICOLA BUOY WAS READING. 7 FEET AT APALACH BUOY SO PROBABLY 8 FEET AT PANAMA CITY BUOY. RIGHT ON THE FENCE NOW BETWEEN SCA AND SCEC. COURSE OF LEAST REGRET IS TO CONTINUE THE SCA AND WILL DO SO. EVENING UPDATE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMOVE THE SCA. SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WITH WINDS UNTIL THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS PICK UP. SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FEET EXPECTED. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH RH VALUES DROP INTO THE LOW 40S IN THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...TODAY'S TAFS SHOW MVFR CIGS WITH IFR VSBY IN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TS. OVERNIGHT, WE SHOW MVFR VSBY AND CIGS REDEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 08Z, EVERYWHERE BUT PFN. INCLUDED PROB GROUPS FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW MORNING AFTER 14Z, EXCEPT AT PFN WHERE WE DEVELOP THEM OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE TWEB ROUTES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 75 91 72 93 / 40 50 20 20 PANAMA CITY 78 90 75 92 / 30 50 20 10 DOTHAN 73 91 71 92 / 30 30 20 10 ALBANY 74 91 71 92 / 40 50 20 10 VALDOSTA 75 91 71 94 / 40 60 20 20 CROSS CITY 75 89 73 92 / 40 60 30 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OFFSHORE LEGS. $$ PUBLIC/MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...WOOL 949 FXUS61 KRLX 301853 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 225 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... LATEST MESOANALYSIS ILLUSTRATES 0-3KM SRH AND 0-6KM WEAKENING A TOUCH...BUT NUMBERS STILL FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD SUPERCELLS. WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE INCREASING MUCAPES...ATMS CONTS TO BCM RIPE FOR TSTM DVLPMNT IN WW761. KATRINA PASSES TO OUR NW TNGT...WHICH BRINGS AN END TO QPF TWRD DAWN OUTSIDE THE MTNS. IN THE MEANTIME...DOWNSLOPING IN STRENGTHENING SE WINDS HAS ALLOWED SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SRN COAL FIELDS TO SHOOT UP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S. COMBINE THAT WITH A SFC WIND SHIFT LINE ALONG THE OH RVR S INTO ERN KY /TN...AIDS IN DEVELOPMENT OF TRW. TSTMS SHALL WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF THE SUN. COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z WED...HOWEVER MID LVL TROF SWINGING THROUGH COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OPTED FOR HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER IN THE EVENING WITH CHC ELSW...THEN CHC OR LKLY AFT MDNGT CWA WIDE. GUIDANCE CLUSTERED NICELY OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER OPTED FOR WARMER MET NUMBERS PER SFC PARCEL TRAJ OUT OF GA. SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK TO PULL OUT WEDNESDAY. WEAK WAVE BEHIND THE REMNANTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT THEN QUICK DRYING OUT AFTER WAVE PASSES WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRY AIR MOVING IN AND GENERAL CHANGE OF MEAN FLOW WILL MEAN DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO TAPPING OF MOISTURE THE REST OF THE PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... CANCELLED FLOOD WATCH FOR DICKENSON...BUCHANAN IN SW VIRGINIA AND FAYETTE...LOGAN..MCDOWELL..MINGO..NICHOLAS..POCAHONTAS..RALEIGH.. WEBSTER AND WYOMING COUNTIES IN WEST VIRGINIA. KEPT REST OF HSA IN FFA UNTIL 8AM WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE HEAVIEST AND STEADY RAINS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE HSA. MAIN THREAT IS FOR SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IF RAINS ARE NOT REALIZIED...THERE IS THE POSSIBLITY OF ENDING THE FFA EARLIER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 122 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) AVIATION (18Z TO 18Z)... VFR TO MVFR CONDS DOMINATE THE FCST AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVE SLOWLY NE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR EASTERN FOUR TERMINALS IS STRONG TSTMS GIVEN LOTS OF SHEAR IN THE ATMS. TO THE WEST...STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WL BRING MVFR TO PKB AND HTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFT MIDNIGHT...MVFR OVC CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH LINGERING RW IN THE MTNS. WET WX SHALL STOP IN THE MTNS BY 9Z. STRATUS (OVC015- 025) IS PROGGED DURING THE PREDAWN HRS INTO THE MID MRNG HRS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AN LOTS OF LLVL MSTR AT ALL SITES. CIGS LIFT TO VFR BY 15Z. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1208 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE WEAK FLOW THE PRESS FOR WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP SO WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM EXTREME HOT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED. NO GOOD TAPPING OF GULF MOISTURE EITHER. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLOOD WATCH FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-026>032-039-040-047 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. OH...FLOOD WATCH FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. KY...FLOOD WATCH FOR KYZ101>103-105 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...29/AAR HYDROLOGY...SIKORA 082 FXUS61 KGYX 301858 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 256 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO A STEADY RAIN OVERNIGHT AS A WARMFRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF KATRINA PUSHES UP FROM THE SOUTH. WILL BE ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES ON THE WAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST AND INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. EXPECT STEADY RAIN TO END DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN SOUTHERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE AND TAPER OFF IN NORTHERN SECTIONS BY EVENING. DEPENDING HOW MUCH SUN DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SOME HEAVY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE LIKELY. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE MAINE THREAT FROM DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO THE MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... FRONT CROSSES FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT...THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TOWARD MORNING. PREFER THE FASTER GFS TIMING WITH THIS FRONT. ETA KEEPS PRECIP GOING ACROSS AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES AREA DURING DAY FRIDAY...THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THESE FRONTS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS THAT FOLLOW THE FRONTS...COULD KICK OFF A SHOWER...WITH THE MOST FAVORED LOCATION IN MTNS...BUT MOST OF AREA WILL REMAIN DRY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR WEEKEND. WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO AREA FOR TUE AND WED. && .AVIATION...IFR TO LIFR...IMPROVING TO MVFR DURUNG THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WED NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA FOR WEEKEND. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028 UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY. NH...FLOOD WATCH NHZ001>010-013-014 UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ150-170 UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY. && $$ 256 FXUS63 KSGF 301901 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 201 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... PRECIPITATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA BARELY MISSED GETTING INTO SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. DELTA AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL...HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY WAS QUICKLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S. NORTHEAST BREEZES CONTINUED TO PUMP IN DRIER AIR...MAKING THE AIRMASS FEEL MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WITH THE LOWER HUMIDITIES. A FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST WAS ANALYZED TODAY AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY FACTOR FOR BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALL MODELS HAVE SHOWED CONSISTENCY WITH RESPECT TO TIME AND WITH EACH OTHER AS LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF KATRINA WILL SHUT DOWN THE GULF THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAVE THE NATION'S MID SECTION WITH A DRY AIRMASS INTO THE WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS OUR NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING...WHICH IS SCHEDULED TO MAKE AN OZARKS CAMEO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...BUT DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION WILL UNFOLD. DID NOT INTRODUCE ANY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S DISTURBANCE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO STATUS QUO WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. RISING HEIGHTS IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY ALLOW WARMER TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD INTO THE OZARKS BY WEEK'S END. FOR CONSISTENCY PURPOSES I CONTINUED THE ONGOING UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS EXPECTED PRECIP CHANCES ARE CONCERNED BEYOND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...LIKELY SHUTTING OFF ANY POSSIBLE RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE LEFT THE ONGOING DRY FORECAST IN TACT. WITH RIDGING SETTING UPPER WEST OF THE AREA...MINOR SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH...POSSIBLY IMPACTING CLOUD COVER...BUT THATS ABOUT IT FOR NOW. && .AVIATION... PILOTS AND THE REST OF THE AVIATION COMMUNITY CAN EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. A FEW HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION FROM KATRINA...HOWEVER...THESE CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS TO RELAX INTO A LIGHT AND VARIABLE STATE AFTER SUNSET. && SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MO...NONE. .KS...NONE. $$ CRAMER 562 FXUS63 KLOT 301902 AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 150 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 ...PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE... RAIN FROM KATRINA BEEN HOLDING THIS MORNING JUST SE OF BENTON CTY IN WITH CHI OVER ENTIRE AREA ALONG WITH A LITTLE BAND OF CU. NAM HAD ITS USUAL INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS BUT DOES NOT SEEM TO MATTER FOR OUR FORECAST AS ALL MODELS SIMILIAR. BUT NAM JUST HORRIBLE WITH ITS QPF FORECAST TO OUR SE. GFS LOOKS BEST AND FOLLOWED. EVEN THE OLD NGM BETTER THAN THE NAM. NAM TRULY TORTURED TODAY. AFTER KATRINA EXITS NEXT THING TO WATCH IS TROF COMING FROM NW. THIS SHOULD PASS N OF AREA WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WITH ITS DYNAMICS SO NO PRECIP IN FORECAST. AFTER THAT RIDGE BUILDS OVER PLAINS PUSHING JET BACK IN S CANADA. WITH 588 COUNTOUR COMING OVERHEAD TEMPS TO WARM AGAIN AT LEAST INTO THE L80S, MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE MORE SO WILL UP LATER PERIOD TEMPS. SHOULD BE LARGE DIURNAL RANGE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LO DPS. WILL HOLD ONTO SMALL CHANCE PRECIP XTRM SE THIS EVE, PROBABLY JUST BENTON COUNTY. ALL OTHER PERIODS DRY. AF && AVIATION... OUTER CLOUD BAND FROM KATRINA OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF SC IN AREA IS MORE THAN LIKELY FROM THIS BAND THROUGH DIRUNAL HEATING COULD BE A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR. OTHERWISE JUST CI OVERCAST ALSO FROM KATRINA. MOVEMENT OF TS SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST BY 06Z SO THAT ONLY HI THIN CLOUDS OVER TAF AREAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH LATE EVENING WHEN GRADIENT SLACKENS. NO OTHER SIG WX OF CONCERN. && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LK MI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IL IN SHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. $$ 965 FXUS61 KILN 301904 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 305 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN KY THIS AFTERNOON AND A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OR SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY AT TIMES COVERED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY. THIS INDICATES THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL MOVE NE TO THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE NE ALONG A TRACK CLOSE TO THE I-71 CORRIDOR. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS SHOULD BE ENTERING WESTERN NY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z AND THEN TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCHES IN THE SOUTH TILL ABOUT 10Z WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF FORECAST AREA UNTIL ABOUT 16Z WEDNESDAY. SE PART OF CWA HAS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. BY 00Z THURSDAY...KATRINA WILL BE WELL TO OUR NE AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY BUT DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH DYNAMICS OR MOISTURE TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION. SO...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO MAV. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... FOR FRIDAY...A WEAK BNDRY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...GFS TIME HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE...SO WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY AS WELL AT THIS POINT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER...AND THEN MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. LOOKING AT MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE...HIGH AND LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... THE FOLLOWING WAS ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... REMNANTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS NEAR KBWG WITH IT'S ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD OVER ALL TAF SITES BUT KCMH AND KLCK. THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE FOR LONG AS IT KILN RADAR SHOWING PRECIP WILL FILL IN OVER KCMH AND KLCK. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS FRONT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT UP INTO TAF SITES AS KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY CLOSE TO KCVG...KILN AND KCMH ON IT'S WAY TO KERI BY 12 WED MORNING. WILL KEEP SIMILAR FORECAST GOING AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. FIRST 9 TO 12 HOURS WILL HAVE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER TAF SITES...THEN WILL BACK OF TO -RA BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS POINT THINK THREAT OF THUNDER IS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF TAF SITES. GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS OF FORECAST WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS. TIPTON && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLOOD WATCH FOR OHZ070>074-077>082-088 UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY. ...FLOOD WATCH FOR OHZ045-046-051>056-060>065 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. KY...FLOOD WATCH FOR KYZ089>100 UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY. IN...FLOOD WATCH FOR INZ050-058-059 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. ...FLOOD WATCH FOR INZ066-073>075-080 UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY. && $$ 031 FXUS62 KCHS 301904 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 304 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT/...TWO LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS HEADED TOWARD CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST WILL AFFECT COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND EVENTUALLY COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. THE SECOND LINE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN CWFA AROUND JENKINS...SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES. THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE CWFA IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH SOME SPEED SHEAR. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH SO WILL NOT CARRY SEVERE WORDING THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO CWFA THIS EVENING BEHIND THE INITIAL LINES. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND WIND SPEEDS REMAINING 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 70S. WEDNESDAY...REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL CONTINUE TO PULL FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE CWA. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND EXPECT THAT WITH DAYTIME HEATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS. WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND 20C...EXPECT THAT HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA. DON/T ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY...AS HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA...RANGING FROM 102 TO 106 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...CAN/T RULE OUT A SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPING IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. && .LONG TERM /THU THRU TUE/...A DRIER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS TO BEGIN SETTLING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THU...AND OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND FRI. WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA...THEN GO WITH A DRY FORECAST THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. WILL INCLUDE SLGT CHC POPS BOTH MON AND TUE AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. && .MARINE...BUOY AND TOWER OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MAX SEAS HAVE BEEN IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE TODAY. THUS...WILL DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AND REPLACE IT WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT. WILL DROP THE CAUTION STATEMENT IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND CAP SEAS AT 4 FEET. WINDS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WILL BE SOUTH AT 15 TO 20 KT FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS SO WILL LEAVE THE CAUTION STATEMENT GOING THERE. AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA CONTINUE TO PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA WED AND WED NIGHT...EXPECT THAT THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX...AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS THU AND THU NIGHT...SHIFTING THE WINDS AROUND FROM THE SW TO THE NE...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD THE REGION. EXPECT WINDS AOB 15 KT WED THROUGH SAT...AND SEAS AOB 4 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT. GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN SAT NIGHT AND SUN...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCREASING WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE 4 TO 5 FT RANGE COASTAL WATERS...AND 4 TO 6 FT RANGE OUTER GA WATERS BY SUN EVENING. && .AVIATION...HAVE INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH SITES THROUGH AROUND 00Z AND THEN HAVE CB AFTER 13Z ON WEDNESDAY. WITH WIND STAYING UP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SCW/JRJ 293 FXUS62 KMHX 301905 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 305 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SW. AFTER MIDNIGHT EVENING MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH...HOWEVER WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLD TSRA INLAND AND CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY FOR WEDS WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLDFRONT. AIRMASS WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LI'S AROUND -6 AND FCST CAPES AROUND 3200 J/KG. GFS/ETA TIME SECTIONS SHOW SOME DRIER AIR WORKING IN ABOVE ABOUT 800 MBS WITH LTL IN THE WAY OF DEEP OMEGA OR QPF INDICATED. MODEL POPS CONTINUE LOW...WILL USING A BLEND OF ETA/GFS...WILL HAVE 20 TO 30 PCT POPS WEDS WITH THE HIGHER VALUES OVER THE NE SECTIONS WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BE A LTL DEEPER. CONCERNING PSBL HEAT ADVISORY FOR WEDS...GFS/ETA MOS GUIDANCE FCST DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...BUT WITH A SW FLOW...DEWPOINTS TEND TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS...SO WILL HOLD DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S...WHICH WILL PUT HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE. WILL ISSUE A SPS AND HEADLINE IN THE ZONES...BUT NO ADVISORY NEEDED AT THIS TIME. STRONG LOW PRES TO MOVE ALONG LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH COLDFRONT DRAGGING ACROSS THE REGION ROUGHLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z THURSDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THRU THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. BY LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND DGEX HINT AT A WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPING INLAND WITH INVERTED TROF NEAR THE COAST PROVIDING FOR INCREASED CONVERGENCE AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN. THE NEW GFS HAS COME INTO LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE DGEX BRINGING IN A CHC OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY AND HAVE INDICATED THIS IN EXTND GRIDS. && .AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DURING SHRA ACTIVITY OR VCTS. WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SW OVERNIGHT DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG AS THE AIR REMAINS MIXED. && .MARINE...SOME LONG PERIOD ESE SWELL OF AROUND 2FT HAVE KEPT SEAS AROUND 3 TO 5 FT DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS AROUND 10KT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER OVERNIGHT TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15KT HIGHEST N. INCREASED GRADIENT AHEAD OF FRONT DUE TO STRONG LOW MOVING UP TOWARD THE ERN GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO SW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE MARINE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDS INTO WEDS NIGHT. ONCE FRONT PASSES THURSDAY MORNING...DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A STRONG SURGE BEHIND IT WITH WINDS NE AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR AMZ158 FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM THURSDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR AMZ150-152-154-156 FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM THURSDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAMISON LONG TERM...COLLINS 438 FXUS63 KILX 301906 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 205 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA FOR OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING...AND THEN RAIN CHANCES...IF ANY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING ACRS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UNLIKE YESTERDAY...MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR TRACK AND SPEED OF KATRINA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA. AFTER THAT...A RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING REMNANTS OF KATRINA OVER SW KENTUCKY TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARDS SE IND/SW OHIO BY THIS EVENING. LARGE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN BANDS WRAPPING SOUTH AROUND THE SFC LOW...SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE ILX AREA THIS EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS TRENDS OF ENDING THE RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEST AND NORTH...WE SHOULD SEE THE CIRRUS SHIELD PULL BACK SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. BASED ON UPSTREAM 18Z DEW POINTS...MAY PULL BACK A FEW DEGREES FROM GUID...LEAVING UPPER 50 TO LOW 60 DEGREE READINGS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH ITS WAY EAST ACRS THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL RIDGE AXIS WON'T GET EAST OF HERE UNTIL EVENING. ONCE IT DOES...SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH SHOULD PUSH INTO THE NRN MIDWEST WED NIGHT. FAIRLY DECENT WARM AXIS DEPICTED FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB WED NIGHT...HOWEVER MOISTURE NOT THERE FOR MUCH...IF ANY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. SILENT 20 POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW POPS CONTINUING ACRS OUR FAR EAST FOR THU. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY WITH A FAIRLY DECENT SURGE OF DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS INTO THE MIDWEST IN ITS WAKE. 850 TEMP PROGS SUGGEST NO IMPORTANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES HEADING INTO FRIDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... QUIET WEATHER PATTERN TO HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LATE WED/THU TROF SHIFTS EAST AND DROPS INTO LONGWAVE TROF POSITION. FURTHER WEST...FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TROF PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HELPING TO PUMP RIDGE ACRS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO AFFECT OUR AREA WON'T REALLY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO US UNTIL LATE TUE OR WED OF NEXT WEEK...AND THAT MAY BE TOO QUICK. ENSEMBLE MODELS NOT SHOWING AS MUCH SPREAD WITH THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BETTER REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR CNTRL IL. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. $$ SMITH 619 FXUS61 KCAR 301907 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 307 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL BRING A STEADY RAIN AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... UPPER DRY SLOT HAS CAPPED ACTIVITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE SO INTO THIS EVENING WITH ONLY THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE REMAINS OF KATRINA... QUICKLY MOVING IT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON WED MORNING TO JUST NORTHWEST OF MAINE BY THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA WILL MOVE INTO SW PORTIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO NORTHERN MAINE BY NOONTIME. BACK EDGE OF RAIN WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING CLOSE TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WEDNESDAY WITH UPSLOPE AREAS POSSIBLY RECEIVING 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN. SINCE RAIN MOVES RIGHT THROUGH THE STATE NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATING AROUND 5 INCHES OF RAIN FOR A 6 HOUR PERIOD NEEDED FOR FLOODING. COULD SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING IN SMALL STREAMS OR BROOKS BUT LARGE RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. AS BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVES NORTH OF THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS FASTER THAN ETA WITH COLD FRONT CROSSING THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... BASICALLY USED THE HPCGUIDE GRIDS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO THE GFS SOLUTION. FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THEN MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG TROUGH WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR IN RAIN AND FOG AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVES ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SEAS STILL SLOW TO COME UP BUT WITH SOUTHERLY GRADIENT TIGHTENING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL KEEP SCA OUT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 KTS CROSSES THE WATERS. SEAS AND WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ050 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM/MARINE...FOSTER LONG TERM/MARINE...STUREY AVIATION...SMF 942 FXUS62 KRAH 301910 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 235 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... CONVECTION ON THE INCREASE AND THIS WILL BE SHORT. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING AS HEATING OF DAY DISSIPATES. LITTLE CHANGE TO REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD. SMALL RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY DRY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACCEPTED. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST DOMINATES. A POSSIBLE WEST MOVING WAVE INTRODUCES RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY...BUT LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SO FAR OUT IN TIME. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ON A WEAK COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH READINGS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. && .AVIATION... HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF SHOWERS IN INT/GSO/FAY WHERE RAIN AT THE SITE OR IN THE VICINITY IS IMMINENT... AND HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF TEMPO SHRA PERIOD FARTHER NORTHEAST AT RDU/RWI. CEILINGS GENERALLY UNLIMITED OR LOW END VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AT GSO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES AND IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN ACCORDANCE WITH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS PLUS UPSTREAM CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHWEST... INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9PM (01Z 31ST) ROUGHLY WEST OF ROXBORO WADESBORO LINE && $$ AVIATION...HARTFIELD 399 FXUS62 KCAE 301911 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 311 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT COMPUTED LI'S EXPECTED TO BE NEAR -4 THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUING HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 2. WILL KEEP CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. ON WED KATRINA BECOMES ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL TROUGH AND LIFT ALONG FRONT AND CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL FAVOR A CHANCE OF THUMDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVE IN ON THUR. WITH SW FLOW DOMINATING AND DECREASING CLOUDS MAX TEMPS WILL RISE TO THE 90S ON WED AND THUR. BY WED NIGHT MINIMUMS SHOULD COOL SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER 70S AS CLOUDS DECREASE FOLLOWING FRONT.MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS TIGHT GRADIENT WITH KATRINA MOVES NORTH. DO NOT PLAN TO EXTEND LAKE WIND ADVISORY INTO THE NIGHT. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... DRY MID/UPPER NW FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA AND RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS FROM CENTRAL US EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD BRING DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPEARS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THIS MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS. && .AVIATION... RMNTS OF KATRINA MOVG ACRS AREA ATTM CAUSING SCT CONVECTION. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN TSTMS TIL 00Z. S TO SW WNDS 10 TO 20 KTS WTH HIGHER GUSTS TIL HR OR TWO BFR SS. SW WNDS 5 TO 10 KTS OVRNITE THEREFORE LTL OR NO FOG. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ 14/24/14 470 FXUS61 KOKX 301911 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 311 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... .NEAR TERM (TONIGHT)... TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE MAIN PLAYERS ARE A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGING. THE RESULTANT DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION HAS ALLOWED FOR THE TROPICAL AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO HELP STEER THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA...CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT TPC FORECAST TAKES THE REMNANT LOW WELL WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...TRACKING UP INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.25" AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW/MID 70S...NUMEROUS WEAK SHORTWAVE/VORT LOBES ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW...AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM KATRINA...AND A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE EAST OF THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH THERMAL FORCING/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS TO DEVELOP WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES. ISOLATED TSTMS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING IS A BOUNDARY ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH OF LI WHICH IS SLOWLY WORKING NORTH. IF THIS FEATURE STAYS TOGETHER CAN EXPECT RAINFALL RATES OF LOCALLY 1 INCH PER HOUR ACROSS NYC...NE NEW JERSEY AND LI AFTER 7 PM. WITH LACK OF RAINFALL THIS SUMMER...BASINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE A GOOD BIT OF RAINFALL...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN HIGH FFG VALUES. HOWEVER HAVE ISSUED SPS TO DISCUSS POSSIBILITIES OF LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND TRAINING OF CELLS. SHRA/TSRA OVER THE NORTH SHORE OF SUFFOLK COUNTY DROPPED ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN JUST AN HOUR. && .SHORT TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... BEST MID LEVEL FORCING WORKS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND RESPECTIVELY. THIS TRANSITION ACTIVITY TO MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE...AS REGION WILL BECOME WARM SECTORED. SPC HAS PLACED REGION UNDER SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 18C FOR TOMORROW...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS THEN TODAY WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...LIMITING THE TRUE POTENTIAL. REGION WILL ALSO BE IN A FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND UNDER THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF 250 HPA JET. ADDITIONALLY 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ON WED WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 150 TO 200 M2/S2. THUS...LOW TOP CONVECTION WITH SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS. LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH WOULD LIMITING SURFACE HEATING AND HENCE INSTABILITY AND THAT THE REMNANT LOW WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH USUALLY LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. SO WHILE THE THREAT EXIST FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE IF WE CAN DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR THIS TO COME TO FRUITION. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE ISSUED SPS TO DETAIL THE THREAT. OTHERWISE...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION BY AROUND 06Z WED NIGHT AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA WORK INTO QUEBEC. WITH A SUBSIDENT AND DRYING DEEP WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND 850 HPA TEMPS STILL AROUND 17-18C ON THURSDAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO APPROACH 90 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. NW FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... GENERALLY MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS. RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO REGION FOR BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER BUT WITH A WARMING TREND. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .MARINE... AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AND INCREASES THIS EVENING...SEAS ON THE OCEAN AT 4 FT AT 18Z WILL RISE INTO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT. WITH THE GRADIENT INCREASING EVEN FURTHER WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVE WELL WEST OF THE WATERS...SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL LIKELY COME UP TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DURING THE DAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON THE WATERS COULD BRING DOWN SOME HIGHER WINDS ALSO DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FURTHER PROBLEMS ON THE AREA WATERS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED. && .AVIATION... VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...PICKING UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT EASTERN ONES WHERE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO ROAM. AT ANY RATE...EXPECT CIGS THROUGHOUT THE REGION TO LOWER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO IFR OR LOWER. LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING WE SHOULD SEE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT AGAIN IN THE CEILING HEIGHT. VSBY CURRENTLY QUITE GOOD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ANY SHOWER WILL BE CAPABLE OF QUICKLY LOWERING THIS. OVERNIGHT WILL SEE FOG BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE AND THUS MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER VSBYS. && .HYDROLOGY... EXPECT A GENERAL QPF OF BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE TROPICAL NATURE OF AIRMASS...THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE/LOW LYING ROADWAY...AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXISTS. HOWEVER...SINCE THE AREA HAS BEEN VERY DRY...WE DO NOT EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH RIVERS. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE FORECAST HIGH HUMIDITY AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL PUT AN END TO THE RECENT FIRE WEATHER DANGER. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE OCEAN...ANZ350-353-355. && $$ 589 FXUS63 KMPX 301914 AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 215 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE FORECAST CHALLENGE ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF THE MOVEMENT AND STRENGTHEN OF IT. SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING. LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT JET STRUCTURE AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...SOME LOW POPS THAT HAVE BEEN CARRIED IN THE ZONE PACKAGE SEEM REASONABLE. LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WILL CUT OFF THE FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE FRIDAY. LONGER TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND FORECAST IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A LITTLE CHILLY SATURDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE A SLOW RISE IN LOWS/HIGHS DURING THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW THAT THE FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN MN LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY LATE ON TUESDAY. HENCE...CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE WESTERN CWA ON MONDAY...SPREADING INTO EASTERN MN MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY. FOLLOWED HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CLOSELY. .MN...NONE. .WI...NONE. && $$ 802 FXUS65 KRIW 301915 AFDRIW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 115 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH ITS PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASING OVER PARTS OF OUR WESTERN SECTIONS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH OUR AREA QUITE FAST. EXPECT SYSTEM TO BE THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY BROUGHT COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA AND EXPECT THEM TO STAY ABOUT THE SAME FOR WEDNESDAY. ONCE TROUGH MOVES OUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THURSDAY THEN GET BACK TO NORMAL FRIDAY. WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... BIG WEATHER PICTURE FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S IN THE BASINS AND VALLEYS. THE GFS DOES WANT TO BRING UP SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE BUT CONSECUTIVE RUNS KEEP DELAYING THE ADVANCE OF THIS MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS AROUND UINTA MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT THINK THE SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY OVERDONE. OTHERWISE PACIFIC COLD FRONT STILL TIMED TO MOVE ACROSS WYOMING LABOR DAY MORNING WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHUNTED NORTH BY STRONG RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN U.S. THUS...ANY ACTIVITY TO BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN WYOMING...NO LABOR DAY WASHOUTS EXPECTED. COLD FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO AREA LABOR DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND BASINS. AFTERWARDS... SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGE EXPANDS AND WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HRD LONG TERM...AEM 940 FXUS64 KLZK 301916 AFDLZK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 214 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOMINATED BY THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA AND A SIGNIFICANT TROF MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GFS OPENS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA INTO AN OPEN WAVE QUICKER THAN THE NAM BUT OVERALL...SHORT TERM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH BOTH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MAJOR PLAYERS. WITH RATHER BENIGN PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE REGION...WILL FOLLOW THE LEAD OF THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL OF LATE. REMNANTS OF KATRINA...CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALL THAT REMAINS IS JUST A FEW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM...HIGH PRESSURE AND CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP EVEN AFTERNOON CUMULUS AT A MINIMUM. STRONG TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE REFLECTION DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY BUT MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE ABSENT AND WILL GO WITH A DRY FROPA. ITS PASSAGE WILL BE MARKED ONLY BY A WIND SHIFT AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS COMING IN BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BE THE DOMINATE SURFACE WEATHER FEATURE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL VIRTUALLY BE ZERO AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM. MODELS DO ATTEMPT TO MOVE A WEAK SHORT WAVE OR TWO THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT VERY LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL FROPA THURSDAY AND THEN SLIDE BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW FOR DAYS THREE AND FOUR. MAV/FWC NUMBERS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF NUMBERS. && .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE UNEVENTFUL. RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD ITS OWN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A LARGE HIGH AT SURFACE STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEAST AND REACHING ACROSS ARKANSAS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING A BIT OF COOLING TO OUR TEMPS. NO MAJOR INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL RIDE ALONG THOSE WINDS...SO A DRY FORECAST. TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMALS OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... LITTLE ROCK AR 67 93 68 93 / 0 0 0 10 HARRISON AR 64 90 66 89 / 0 0 0 10 HOT SPRINGS AR 67 94 69 93 / 0 0 0 10 PINE BLUFF AR 68 93 69 94 / 0 0 0 10 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 65 89 65 89 / 0 0 0 10 MONTICELLO AR 68 94 69 94 / 0 0 0 10 SEARCY AR 67 90 68 92 / 0 0 0 10 MOUNT IDA AR 67 94 69 93 / 0 0 0 10 RUSSELLVILLE AR 66 93 67 92 / 0 0 0 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM....32 757 FXUS63 KGLD 301917 AFDGLD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 120 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND COLD FRONT/PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY DEGREE OF COOLDOWN TOMORROW. 17-18Z SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTHERN WYOMING WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS WYOMING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL/AND STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT...DECIDED TO EXPAND THE ISOLATED MENTION IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NORTH WINDS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND BOUNDARY WITH STRONG 850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION/40-45 KNOTS THROUGH THE EXPECTED MIXING DEPTH AND IMPRESSIVE 3/6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES BEHIND COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...THEREFORE RELUCTANT TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR WIND. TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK WEDNESDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY...HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S WEST TO AROUND 80 EAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING MAY FALL TO THE COOLEST LEVELS OF THE SEASON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. THE COOLEST READINGS ARE EXPECTED IN LOW LYING AREAS OF THE REPUBLICAN RIVER VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE MID 40S UNDER CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY/FRIDAY...KEPT AN ISOLATED MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY AXIS DEVELOPS IN RETURN FLOW AROUND SURFACE RIDGE. KEPT THE MENTION CONFINED MAINLY WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED WEST OF THE AREA DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH THE 0-6KM MEAN WIND THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/PERHAPS EARLY EVENING HOURS. DAMPENED THE WARMING TREND FOR BOTH DAYS WITH A SLOW RISE SUPPORTED BY INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESS. NO PLAN TO INSERT AN AFTERNOON MENTION ON FRIDAY WITH LACK OF ANY STRONG UPPER SUPPORT OR GOOD FOCUS AT THE SURFACE. REMNANT BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE CURRENT PLAN IS TO KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING WITH A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES EXPECTED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PLANTED ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. GFS IS QUICKER BREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS MID/UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND THE BELT OF WESTERLIES SINKS SOUTHWARD WITH MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. THE CURRENT PLAN WILL BE TO HOLD THE HOT/DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTRODUCE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS GFS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE AREA. WILL ALSO START TO TREND TEMPERATURES DOWN ON TUESDAY WITH UNCERTAINTY IN FRONTAL TIMING. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ MCGUIRE 910 FXUS64 KLCH 301921 AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 221 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVING FROM THE TN RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL TROF IN WAKE OF KATRINA EXTENDING FROM NE TX-SW TX. GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LYING ACROSS NERN LA EXTENDING BACK SWWD INTO THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIP OVER LAND AND NOT REALLY LOOKING FOR TOO MUCH. A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THRU EARLY THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF ACADIANA WHERE WEAK SEA BREEZE INTERACTING WITH HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL THEN BUILD IN WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET THOUGH AS LOWER DEWPOINTS FILTER INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS EVENING. A LITTLE BIT OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE AT THE TAF SITES...BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT GO UNDER 5 MILES. && .MARINE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 72 97 74 97 / 0 10 10 10 KBPT 73 98 74 97 / 0 10 10 10 KAEX 70 97 71 97 / 0 0 0 10 KLFT 72 96 74 95 / 0 10 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...OZONE ACTION DAY HARDIN...JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES. && $$ WILEY 090 FXUS63 KIWX 301923 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 223 PM EST TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM... WATER VAPOR SHOWING REMNANTS OF KATRINA SHEARING QUICKLY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST. DEFORMATION TYPE PCPN ON NORTHWEST SIDE OF CIRCULATION AFFECTING SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PCPN HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE NORTHWEST AS IT ENCOUNTERS MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE. CIRCULATION CENTER LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG TRACK OF BEST HEIGHT FALLS HAS FINALLY ALLOWED EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD TO BEGIN INCHING NORTHWEST AGAIN. EXPECT SOME WESTWARD EXPANSION AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST THIS EVENING BEFORE BACK EDGE BEGINS TO PIVOT EAST. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL CONTINUES IN FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE RADAR RETURNS HAVE SHOWN INCREASE REFLECTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN BUT SPREAD OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 15 HOURS. THEREFORE EXPECT RUNOFF TO BE HANDLED FAIRLY WELL WITH ONLY SOME LOCALIZED PROBLEMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH NOWCASTS AND ESF HIGHLIGHTING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BUT NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. AS ALWAYS...WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING FOR ANY CHANGES. HAVE LEFT A SHARP CUTOFF TO WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN IN GRIDS. THIS LEAVES EXTREME NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA DRY OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED TREND OF ENDING PCPN FROM WEST TO EAST BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO END AS QUICK AS HPC QPF FORECAST. HAVE HELD ONTO POPS ALL NIGHT NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHEAST INDIANA...THEN END PCPN ALL TOGETHER IN THE FAR NORTHEAST WED MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM WEST IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM. SKY COVER SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...HOWEVER...SCT-BKN CU EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS WHERE LESS SUBSIDENCE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAIN ALONG WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. && .LONG TERM... LOW PRESSURE DEPICTED WELL ON WATER VAPOR ALONG H50 TROF OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BITTERROOT RANGE IN THE PAC NW. MODELS CONTINUE TO TRANSFER MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PEAK HEATING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG DIGGING OF H50 TROF OVER THE MIDWEST ON WED. MODELS SHOW MORE AMPLIFICATION AND AN INCREASE IN 85-70H RH DURING THU AM OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH PASSAGE OF H50 TROF. CANADIAN MODEL DAMPENS THE H50 TROF CONSIDERABLY BY 12Z THU BEFORE MOVING IT INTO THE CWA. DUE TO LACK OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND TIMING OF DAY AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO LEFT CWA DRY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND DOMINATES THE AREA AS RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD TROF SETTING UP OVER PAC NW. SLOW MODERATING TEMPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS SUN/MON AM...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NW CWA. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE KBEH FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S. STRONG RIDGE OVER EASTERN HALF OF US STARTS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL CONUS. SYSTEM WILL TAKE TIME TO IMPEDE RIDGE AS HIGH PRES HOLDS FIRM OVER NEW ENGL. FEEL ATTM SYSTEM WILL NOT MOVE INTO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TILL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LASHLEY LONG TERM...WAMSLEY 701 FXUS62 KTBW 301926 AFDTBW WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 330 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURS)...MODEL MOS CONTINUES TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFER IN THE POP CATEGORY. GFS WELL OVERDONE WHILE MET APPEARS TOO LOW SO WILL GO WITH BLEND SOLUTION. NE TO SW TILTED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA BETWEEN UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO UPPER REMNANTS OF KATRINA OVER THE TENN RIVER VALLEY WHILE UPPER LOW SPINS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. SW FLOW LOW TO MID LEVELS TO GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION OFF THE GULF OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO SCT WITH DIURNAL HEATING INLAND. WARM SW FLOW OFF THE GULF TO KEEP MIN TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WHILE AFTERNOON TEMPS MAX OUT AROUND NORMAL. WILL LEAN TOWARDS HIGHER POPS THU AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHEARED VORT MAX EXPECTED TO DRIFT FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE N FL PENINSULA. WEAKENING SW FLOW AND SUBSIDING SEAS TO DROP BREAKING WAVES BELOW 5 FT...SO WILL LET HI SURF ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 4 PM. .LONG TERM (THU NIGHT-TUE)...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL DISSIPATE AS A WEAK TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE FROM THE WAKE OF KATRINA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY WILL THEN DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES DEVELOP AND COLLIDE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO WITH GENERALLY NE/E WINDS. && .MARINE...GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THRU THE WEEK. ELEVATED SEAS 4 FT SOUTH TO UP TO 8 FT MAINLY NORTH TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT TO KEEP SCA CONDITIONS GOING. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW HIGHLIGHTS LATER WED AND REMAIN LIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. && .FIRE WEATHER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE NO HIGHLIGHTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 81 90 78 90 / 20 50 20 60 FMY 79 89 77 90 / 20 50 20 40 GIF 78 91 77 90 / 20 50 20 60 SRQ 80 89 80 90 / 20 50 20 60 BKV 79 90 75 90 / 20 60 30 60 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60 NM. $$ RD/JC 359 FXUS63 KFGF 301929 AAA AFDFGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 230 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERN PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS COMING BACK INLINE WITH TIMING OF NEXT FROPA LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW. WILL USE MIX FOR FORECAST. SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY APPROACHING DAKOTAS BORDER AND WILL REACH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. AIRMASS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WILL BE PRETTY STRONGLY CAPPED WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S IN THE DVL BASIN AT 06Z. WITH FORCING/MID LEVEL COOLING FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WELL BACK INTO MT MAIN ASSISTANCE WILL BE ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET WHICH FOCUSES MOST OF ITS FORCING INTO CANADA. STRONGEST DEEP LAYERED SHEAR ALSO BEHIND BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT ANY CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE VERY SPOTTY AND ELEVATED. WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 14.5K FT SEVERE THREAT ALSO SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. MODELS SIMILAR IN HOLDING MAIN PCPN ZONE POST FRONTAL WHICH MAKES SENSE FROM ABOVE REASONING. WITH THIS WILL HOLD OFF PCPN TO CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT OVER FAR WEST AND LIMIT EASTWARD EXTENT TO VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH WARM ADVECTION AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER AND WILL GO WITH NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VALUES WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. SURFACE BOUNDARY SHIFTS ACROSS MN WEDNESDAY EXITING FA BY 00Z. AIRMASS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE WITH FAVORED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SOUTH OF FA. WILL LIKELY SEE PCPN CONTINUEING ALONG/BEHIND BOUNDARY ALONG 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. WITH FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION/CLOUDS/PCPN TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)... OVERALL WARMING TREND APPEARS ON TRACK FOR THE SAT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING RIDGE AND CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH SUNDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SO LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDER APPEAR WARRANTED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND COOL SOME BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. .AVIATION... VFR CUMULUS WILL LINGER IN FAR EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH REST OF AREA SKC. MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST...WITH THUNDER CHANCES INCREASING LATE TONIGHT AND WED. CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO MVFR RANGE TOMORROW FOR ALL AREAS WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ VOELKER/KELLENBENZ 767 FXUS63 KDTX 301929 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 329 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NORTHERN FRINGE OF KATRINA TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT ZONES...WHICH DEPICT SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION. RAIN SHIELD HAS SPREAD INTO MONROE/LENAWEE COUNTIES AS OF 3 PM. WOULD EXPECT THE NORTHERN EDGE TO REACH M-59 THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...TO MAYBE AS FAR NORTH AS I-69...PER MID LEVEL OMEGA FIELDS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STABLE...AND DO NOT EXPECT THUNDER WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. IN FACT...HAVE SEEN NO LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO TODAY. WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND LACK OF INSTABILITY...NO CONCERNS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL HERE IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH MODEST 850-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. NONE-THE-LESS...MONROE COUNTY SHOULD DO OK WITH A QUARTER TO MAYBE HALF AN INCH OF RAIN. LARGE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA TO ABSORB KATRINA BY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. SLOW CLEARING TREND TOMORROW DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATED MAXES AROUND 80 DEGREES WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH KATRINA RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...EXTENDED FORECAST QUIETS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGH PRESSURE...FROM THE SURFACE UP...BUILDS IN FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST...PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY WEATHER TO SPEAK OF WILL BE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT RACES THROUGH THE LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE BEST LIFT/FORCING WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...AND WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 100 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) AVIATION... INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...COUPLED WITH THICKENING CLOUDS FROM KATRINA HAS ALLOWED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG (MVFR) TO PERSIST AT THE DETROIT TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES MAY TRY TO IMPROVE (6SM+) FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO LOWER ONCE AGAIN DUE TO RAINFALL/NORTHERN FRINGE OF KATRINA...WHICH IS CREEPING NORTH FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE GONE WITH PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AT DET/DTW. HOWEVER...COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IF DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS IN. AS FAR AS FNT/MBS GO...NO PROBLEMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...INCREASING MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON...COUPLED WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR VISIBILITIES AND/OR CEILINGS. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON...6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM....DG AVIATION ....SF 300 FXUS63 KJKL 301930 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 330 PM TUE AUG 30 2005 BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST ARE THE EFFECTS OF KATRINA THIS EVENING AND CHANCES FOR PCPN BEYOND TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR SAT PIX SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AS A RESULT...FEEL HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS ALSO SHIFTED NORTH. THEREFORE...WILL CANCEL FLOOD WATCH. AS FOR WINDS...AREAS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLIRTING (BUT NOT REACHING) LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WITH GRADIENT RELAXING THIS EVENING...WILL ALSO CANCEL LAKE WIND ADVISORY. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN INCREASED INSTABILITY AND EXPECT CURRENT LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN KY TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING TORNADOS WITH IMPRESSIVE SHEAR (WHICH IS WEAKENING AS SFC WINDS BACK FROM THE SOUTH) ALONG WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNDRAFTS BRINING 50+ KT WINDS SEEN ON VAD WIND PROFILE ABV 5KT FEET. WITH THE NAM INITIALIZING KATRINA TOO FAR SOUTH...LEANED TWD THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST. GFS SHOWS MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE HANGING AROUND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN EARLY WED. OTHERWISE...WITH RELAXING GRADIENT LEANED TOWARD COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR LOWS WED NIGHT WITH WARMER MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS THURSDAY. LONG TERM...FRI THROUGH TUE. NOT MUCH CHANGE IF ANY IN THE EXTENDED. MODELS SHOWING GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER OVERALL. OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH THE AREA. APPEARS FOR NOW THAT SHORTWAVES WILL GENERATE NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS. ENSEMBLES SHOW AREA STAYS UNDER 570 THICKNESS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL... EXPECT COOL MORNINGS AND PLEASANTLY WARM AFTERNOONS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 1025 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 FOCUS THIS MORNING WAS ON THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WHICH SAT PICS INDICATE IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF HOP AT 14Z. LATEST 12Z NAM IS STILL SLOWER THAN 06Z GFS ON THE MOVEMENT OF KATRINA...AND STILL LEAN TWD THIS FASTER SOLUTION. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE REALLY REDUCING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO FORECAST NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF KATRINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH WOULD PUT AXIS OF RAIN INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AS FOR WINDS...VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 25+ KNOTS WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. AS RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALSO STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADOS THIS AFTERNOON WITH 12Z NASHVILLE SOUNDING SHOWING 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES AROUND 900 M2/S2. THINNING OF CLOUDS EAST OF JKL-HAZARD SUGGEST THIS AREA MAY SEE TSRA DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. && 425 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 CENTER OF KATRINA CONTINUES TO PICK UP SPEED AND TURN MORE TOWARD THE EAST. GFS...WHILE IT HAS HAD THE BEST OVERALL HANDLE ON THE STORM...IS RUNNING A BIT SLOW AND TO THE WEST AT INITIALIZATION. CURRENT MOSAIC SHOWS CONSISTENT BANDS OF MOISTURE NOW BEGINNING TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...OTHERWISE...DOWNSLOPING HAS MITIGATED A LOT OF THE PRECURSOR BANDS FROM KATRINA. LATEST GUIDANCE AND CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA HAS HIGHER FLOOD THREAT TODAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WATCH...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE A BIT LOWER OVERALL WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT...SO WILL FRESHEN UP SOME OF THE CURRENT WORDING...WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. KATRINA HAS BEEN ABLE TO HANG ONTO HER TIGHT GRADIENT A BIT LONGER...AND WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS NEAR OUR LAKE WIND CRITERIA...SO HAVE KEPT THIS GOING AS WELL. SPC HAS CONCENTRATED THE GREATER TORNADO THREAT EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FOR TODAY. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE DOWNSLOPING HURT ORGANIZED CELL FORMATION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPS...HOWEVER WITH SO MUCH SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A FEW SPIN-UPS IN THE HWO. LATEST GFS MOS SHOWS THE FASTER EXIT OF KATRINA...AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO ARGUE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...INITIALIZATION STARTED OUT A BIT SLOW...SO HAVE KILLED THE PRECIP PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ONLY HANGING ONTO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM. FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE EXPIRED BEFORE 6 AM WEDNESDAY...BUT DEPENDING ON WHAT MATERIALIZES TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...WOULD RATHER CONTINUE IT LATER IN CASE THERE ARE ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS THAT LAST BEYOND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES BEYOND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST INTACT...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && 1025 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005 02Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA NOW MOVING INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE HEAVIER RAIN AND HIGHER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NOW EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN TENNESSEE. CLOSER TO EAST KENTUCKY...THE FIRST RAIN BAND FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS CROSSED INTO THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND IS WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PINWHEEL NORTH. TO THE NORTH OF THIS...LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING THROUGH NORTH ALONG INTERSTATE 64. AREAS OF FOG ARE INTERMINGLED WITH THE SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS ARE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF 70. EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES THIS WAY. THE HEAVIER RAINS OF KATRINA WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT WITH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SEEING MORE THAN THE EAST DUE TO THE STORM TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE TRACK MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A BIT FURTHER EAST DUE TO KATRINA/S CURRENT MOVEMENT...AND ALSO SOME DOWNSLOPING SETTING UP IN THE EAST. THIS ALL CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE GRIDS...TEXT PRODUCTS AND THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST THOUGHTS ON KATRINA...BUT THE BULK OF TEXT ZONES WILL BE THE SAME WITH THE MIDNIGHT WORDING TAKEN OUT AND NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES WORDING ADDED. && 524 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LARGE BAND OF PRECIP ALONG A DEFORMATION ZONE LYING ACROSS KY IS BEGINNING TO LOSE ITS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SUPPORT...AND SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DIE OFF AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS BAND HAS PRIMED THE SOILS NICELY ACROSS MUCH OF KENTUCKY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF FLOODING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BUT NOW KATRINA IS TAKING AIM AT THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. OMINOUS BANDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS GA AND AL...MOVING NORTHWARD AT A FAST PACE. KATRINA WILL PUT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 65 AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDORS AT HIGHEST RISK FOR FLOODING. TO ADD INSULT TO INJURY...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW. FOR NOW SPC HAS PLACED OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT...25 PERCENT RISK CATEGORY. HOWEVER...SPC STATEMENTS HAVE INDICATED THAT THE AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK CATEGORY AS WELL. AFTER MUCH DISCUSSION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...DECIDED TO GO WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW. WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL ABOVE HURRICANE LEVELS INTO CENTRAL MS THIS EVENING. SO IT APPEARS THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR TOMORROW. WINDS ON FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN COMING UP. IN THE END...DECIDED TO GO ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND ISSUE THE ADVISORY. EXPECT THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE REALIZED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN MOST ZONES...AND AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOS POPS WERE PRETTY MUCH CAT LEVELS ACROSS THE BOARD. SO CAT POPS WERE ON ORDER...LEAVING THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. USED HPC QPF FIELDS FOR THE SHORT TERM. FOR TEMPS...MOS CAME BACK IN COOLER FOR TOMORROWS HIGH TEMPS...PARTICULARLY THE FWC AND MAV MOS. MET MOS REMAINED UNCHANGED. BUT THE NAM LOOKS WAY TOO SLOW WITH KATRINA/S MOVEMENT AND HAS NOT HANDLED HER WELL AT ALL. DECIDED TO TAKE TEMPS BACK DOWN IN THE WEST...BUT LEFT WARMER TEMPS IN THE EAST PER PREVIOUS SHIFTS LEAD AS DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP WITH WARMER TEMPS THERE. PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AS THERE WAS GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE NUMBERS. EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KY THROUGH MONDAY...KEEPING THE REGION MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER...TREND OF THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER PATTERN AND NOW CUTS OFF AN UPPER LOW FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY SOUTH OF KY. FOR THE FORECAST GENERALLY USED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THIS SOLUTION AND THE CANADIAN MODEL WHICH IS LESS AMPLIFIED. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP EXTENDED FORECAST DRY WITH LOW LEVEL E/NE WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND STAY CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE TEMPS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ HYSELL/RAY 707 FXUS64 KFWD 301931 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 231 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT AS KATRINA MOVES FURTHER AWAY. A FEW SHRA DEVELOPED SW OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY S WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM N FLOW. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO N TEXAS TO TRIGGER STORMS. FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AND MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...BUT AT THE SAME TIME H5 RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION. THAT...AND THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BACK DOOR INTO N TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL BACK IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR THIS FRONT TO WORK WITH EITHER...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE ONGOING FORECAST. END OF GFS FORECAST...WEEK FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOOKS A BIT MORE INTERESTING FOR THOSE SEARCHING FOR SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE INTO FALL. BUT THEN AGAIN...EXTENDED PORTION OF GFS OFTEN SWINGS WIDELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRANSITION MONTHS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 72 98 73 97 / 10 0 0 0 WACO, TX 70 99 70 96 / 10 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 67 95 68 95 / 10 0 0 0 DENTON, TX 70 98 70 97 / 10 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 71 98 71 97 / 10 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 73 98 74 97 / 10 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 70 98 71 97 / 10 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 70 98 71 96 / 10 0 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 72 99 71 96 / 10 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 80/ 476 FXUS63 KTOP 301938 AFDTOP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 237 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... BAND OF CUMULUS CLOUDS CROPPING UP THANKS TO SUNSHINE AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPED SOUTHWEST FROM KATRINA. SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN ON WV IMAGERY MOVING INTO EXTREME NE KS ATTM. MAIN CONCERNS ARE POPS...FOG...AND FRONT. THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS UPPER WAVE AND PEAK HEATING COMBINE. ATMOSPHERE DOES HAVE SOME INSTABILITY AND IS WEAKLY CAPPED. JUST NOT SURE ITS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET A SHOWER GOING...AND WILL LIKELY LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. OVERNIGHT...AM THINKING UPPER WAVE AND APPROACHING FRONT AND PRESSURE FALLS WILL KEEP WINDS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT...AND PREVENT FOG FORMATION. DID GO WITH LOWS CLOSE TO LAST NIGHTS NUMBERS. NEXT FRONT POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY...FROM EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERES STILL ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE IN THE LATE DAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES IN...BUT STILL LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. MAIN DYNAMICS ALSO STAY NORTH. THINK AN ISOLATED CHANCE IS GOOD FOR NOW. HAVE KEPT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER NORTHWEST AS FRONT CUTS OFF HEATING TO GUIDANCE THERE. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. HELD ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS AS THE FRONT LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS. OTHERWISE MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-70 SHOULD BE DRY WITH DRYER AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS SHOW DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S BEHIND THE FRONT... BUT AM NOT SURE THE AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT THAT MUCH AS IT MODIFIES CROSSING THE PLAINS. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME DECENT CAA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT THINK SUNSHINE SHOULD OFF SET THIS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION THURSDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND WAA BEGINS WITH THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS. HOWEVER THE NAM IS DRY WITH A DRYER AIRMASS. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES JUST YET BUT IF THE ATMOSPHERE DOES NOT DRY OUT AS MUCH AS FORECAST...MAY NEED TO INCLUDE SOME POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KS THURSDAY NIGHT AND A LITTLE FURTHER EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARMUP INTO THE WEEKEND AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HANDELS THIS WELL. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE NOT INSERTED POPS FOR DAY SEVEN JUST YET SINCE MODELS TEND TO SLOW DOWN FROM THE INITIAL TIMING OF THE FRONT. THERE SEEMS TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ KC/WOLTERS 528 FXUS63 KIND 301939 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 238 PM EST TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST FOCUS IS ON ENDING OF RAIN. AT 19Z REMNANTS OF KATRINA WERE CENTERED ACROSS WRN KY. SHIELD OF RAIN COVERED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA /FA/...WITH HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS SRN 1/2 OF FA. GFS CONTINUES TO DO BEST WITH KATRINA. WILL STICK WITH IT THIS FORECAST. PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE TO INDICATE KATRINA REMNANTS WILL MOVE TOWARD KCVG. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN ACROSS FA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WILL GO CATEGORIAL POPS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVE MUCH OF ERN HALF OF FA. WILL TAPER TO LOW LIKELY POPS FAR NWRN FA AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY GETTING -RA AND SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME PRECIP. AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY NE...WILL BE ABLE TO DROP POPS BACK INTO CHC CAT ALL BUT ERN 1/3 OF FA AFT MIDNIGHT. INTENSITY OF RAIN WILL DECREASE ACROSS FAR SRN FA AS SFC LOW MOVES CLOSER. HOWEVER THIS AREA HAS RECEIVED DECENT AMOUNTS OF RAIN ALREADY AND ANY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. WILL LEAVE FLOOD WATCH INTACT. AREAS N OF FLOOD WATCH ARE ABLE TO HANDLE RAIN AMOUNTS OK. BELIEVE WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM. URBAN AREA FLOODING CAN BE HANDLED WITH URBAN ADVISORIES. THUS WILL NOT EXPAND FLOOD WATCH N AT THIS TIME. AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST IT WILL PULL DOWN SOME DRIER AIR BY MORNING. THUS GUIDANCE TEMPS IN LOW 60S LOOK GOOD FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. KEPT LOW CHC POPS ERN FA EARLY IN THE MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH DUE TO FORWARD SPEED OF SYSTEM. CLOUD SHIELD WILL QUICKLY DEPART...BUT WITH MOIST GROUND AND SOME COOLER TEMPS AT 850 EXPECT CU TO FORM. THE WET GROUND WILL ALSO HELP KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK. MAV NUMBERS LOOK GOOD MOST AREAS. WEAK FRONT MOVES IN ON THU BUT LITTLE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF FRONT AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR TSRA BELOW 15 PERCENT. OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH MILD TEMPS. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH THRU TONIGHT SRN 1/3 OF FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG AND S OF A SULLIVAN TO RUSHVILLE LINE. && $$ CS 380 FXUS62 KILM 301941 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 341 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. COVERAGE HAS BEEN LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...WHICH MODEL GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO CAPTURE AND WILL THEREFOR BE THE THEME OF THIS FORECAST. FORCING REMAINS WEAK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THE PRIMARY TRIGGER. ONCE AGAIN DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES BY THE MAJOR MODELS. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE CAPTURED THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY BEST...AND WILL USE THE LESS AMBITIOUS GUIDANCE POPS FOR THIS PACKAGE. HAVE DECREASED THESE NUMBERS ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST...DECREASING SOUTHEAST. SEVERE THREAT...WHAT REMAINS OF IT...WILL ALL BUT DISAPPEAR AFTER SUNSET. WEAK FORCING DISAPPEARS WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA. A LITTLE LOW LEVEL FORCING LAGS BEHIND AT 850MB ALONG THE COAST AND HAVE THEREFOR PAINTED BEST POPS THERE. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...HAVE USED THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV NUMBERS. HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER WITH A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER AROUND. WILL MENTION IN ZONES AND LET MID SHIFT ISSUE AN SPS IF NECESSARY. FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL PROGGED FOR THURSDAY MORNING...AND EACH MODEL RUN HAS TRENDED DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL. HAVE DROPPED POPS SLIGHTLY. NAM DEVELOPS A WAVE ACROSS THE BOUNDARY LATE THURSDAY...WHICH LEADS TO HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS IN THE MET NUMBERS FOR OUR AREA. HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW...AND CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FOR DRY NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP AT THE MID LEVELS. CONTINUED TREND OF LOWER POPS...NEAR CLIMATOLOGY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS DOES HINT AT A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION... CONVECTION HAS REMAINED LOW KEY ENOUGH TO NOT MERIT BEING IN ANY PREDOMINANT GROUPS AND EXPECT THAT WILL BE THE CASE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT PACKAGE COVERS FOR TEMPO TSRA UNTIL ABOUT 23Z. BARRING ANY CONVECTION AFFECTING ANY AIRPORT, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND THE TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS HAS CAUSED WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD REACH 15 TO MAYBE 20 KT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A SURGE UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. CAUSING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT...BUT IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. HOWEVER...DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE ENOUGH WITH LOWERING THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME SINCE WINDS ARE STILL ON THE INCREASE...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE. SO...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE WATERS...AND INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR AMZ254-256 FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR AMZ250-252 FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 5 PM WEDNESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MBB MARINE...JAQ birch: Connection timed out DDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 243 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE IF WE GET ANY WINDS OR PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT TOMORROW, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOP MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PROGRESS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LEE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND BRING A COLD FRONT DOWN TOWARDS KANSAS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON EXACT TIMING, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 12Z, AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED CAPE. THE ETA BREAKS OUT A LITTLE BIT OF PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT, BUT THE GFS AND UKMET KEEP US DRY. GIVEN THE RECENT POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE ETA, WILL LEAN A BIT TOWARDS THE DRIER MODELS AND KEEP ONLY THE MINIMAL POPS WE HAVE GOING. WINDS COULD GET FAIRLY BREEZY AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH, WITH 850MB WINDS AT 12Z APPROACHING 40 KTS IN NORTHERN KS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING AND NOT AT THE BEST TIME FOR MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF AN ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS. WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE WEST, LOWS MAY DROP QUICKLY TONIGHT BEFORE LEVELING OUT LATER AS WINDS PICK UP AND CLOUDS START TO COME IN. THE FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, DROPPING 850MB TEMPS INTO THE UPPER TEENS C, WITH A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS HANGING AROUND DURING THE DAY AND GOOD NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN TODAY, SO THE GOING UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS GOOD. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS, LOWERED LOWS JUST A BIT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS SHOULD WARM BACK INTO THE 80S. DAYS 3-7... FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY. OTHER MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS ECMWF WITH A BIT MORE RIDGING, SO WARM FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. THEN A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY OR DAY 7. THE QUESTION IS TIMING THAT FAR OUT AND THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN TROUGH FOR THAT PERIOD IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THE GFS TROUGH AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR SO WILL NOT GO QUITE AS COLD ON TUESDAY AS GFS WOULD SUGGEST, BUT WILL KEEP CURRENT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S GOING; AND GFS HAS A TENDENCY TO OVERDUE COLD AIR SURGES AND TROUGH AMPLITUDE. THEN ALSO ADDED SOME THUNDER TO THE GRIDS ON TUESDAY WITH FRONT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 62 79 56 85 / 0 10 0 0 GCK 59 78 54 83 / 0 10 0 0 EHA 60 80 55 85 / 0 10 10 0 LBL 62 81 55 85 / 0 10 10 0 HYS 62 78 55 84 / 0 10 0 0 P28 65 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 26/06 375 FXUS61 KBOX 301945 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 345 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 ...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)... A BAND OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING DUMPED A MUCH NEEDED 2.5 TO 5.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS IN A VERY SHORT TIME. THIS RESULTED IN AN URBAN TYPE OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH AND SOUTHERN BRISTOL COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT... IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE ACTION FOR AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT AS THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT THE NORTHWEST OF THIS REGION. THEREFORE...WILL CHECK RADAR TRENDS JUST BEFORE ZONE ISSUANCE BUT WILL PROBABLY CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. OTHERWISE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AND EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT PRESSES NORTHWARD. MOST ACTION ON THE LOW LEVEL JET USUALLY OCCURS NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER RUNS IT. THEREFORE...FEEL THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF SURFACE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH 70+ DEWPOINTS IT CAN NEVER BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY...PLACING US ON THE WARM SECTOR SIDE OF THE STORM. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE THE STRONGEST WE HAVE SEEN IN A LONG TIME. THE GFS IS SHOWING 45 TO 60 KNOTS OF WIND FROM JUST OFF THE GROUND THROUGH 500 MB. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER US WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +18C. DESPITE A LOT OF CLOUDINESS AROUND GUIDANCE NUMBERS SEEM WAY TOO COOL AND WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS ALOFT IT BE TOUGH FOR US NOT TO MIX SOME OF THIS DOWN. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. IT WILL FEEL VERY MUGGY AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. EVEN THROUGH IT MAY BE A RATHER CLOUDY DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SO MUCH WINDS ALOFT WE DEFINITELY MAY SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE AS WE MIX OUT. WITH SUCH A HIGH AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S WILL RESULT IN 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE. THE GFS INDICATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF 700 OMEGA WHICH IS A GOOD INDICATION THERE THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION OVER US. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS ALOFT ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT GOES UP MAY QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. IN ADDITION...WITH SUCH STRONG SPEED SHEAR AND WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 75 AND 150 AND BOUNDARY LAYER TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS...AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AGAIN THOUGH...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WHICH STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FINALLY...WITH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AS WE SAW TODAY. ITS TOO HARD TO PINPOINT THIS AREA SO WILL COVER THIS IN THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR OUR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... HAVE LIKELY POPS SPILLING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN DROP POPS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. THURSDAY LOOKS DRY. FRIDAY PROBABLY WILL BE DRY TOO...ALTHOUGH PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN ZONES WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. LOOKS LIKE LITTLE MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...BUT SYSTEM LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH AND WITH TIMING DURING AFTERNOON...WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. FOR THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURE MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS FAIRLY REASONABLE AND TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO LOW/MID 80S AWAY FROM S COAST AS 850 MB TEMPS 12-14. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL SET UP ACRS NEW ENG THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNDER LOW LEVEL NW FLOW. CONTINUED DRY WITH WARMING TREND MON/TUE AS SFC HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EWD INTO NEW ENG. && .AVIATION... MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOCAL VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS AND NANTUCKET. && .MARINE... IN THE SHORT TERM...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS OVERNIGHT FOR 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS. WINDS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH STRONG WINDS RIGHT OFF THE DECK ON WEDNESDAY WILL GO FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EVERYWHERE FOR 30 KNOT WIND GUSTS. ALSO...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS. IN THE LONGER TERM...WIND GUSTS LIKELY APPROACHING GALES WED NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES EWD ACRS THE WATERS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT FULL MIXING BUT MAY STILL SEE GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS WED NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO W BHND FROPA AS CAA IS WEAK TO NIL. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 10 FEET ON THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DURING THU. NO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED BEYOND FRI. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SCA ANZ254 AND 255 TONIGHT WITH SCA FOR ALL ZONES ON WEDNESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...FRANK LONG TERM...RMT/KJC 724 FXUS63 KDMX 301946 AFDDMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 245 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY WITH FRONTAL APPROACH THEN TEMPERATURES AS VERY DRY AIR SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. SFC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS WESTERN IOWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVE SWIFTLY ACROSS THE STATE...EXITING THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MOISTURE SUPPLY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO CUT OFF FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE SYSTEM MAINLY RELYING ON A LIMITED PACIFIC MOISTURE SOURCE. THE 305-310K ISENTROPIC SURFACES DO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND ALONG WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF POOLING MID 60 DEWPOINTS. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND QG FORCING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE LACK OF 0-6KM SHEAR...OVERALL MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INDIVIDUAL CELLS TO BECOME STRONG FOR A SHORT DURATION. THE ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY STABILIZES TOWARDS 00Z THURSDAY AS THE DRY AIR SURGES INTO THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. EXPECT LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES AS AN ABUNDANCE OF SUN WILL WARM THE DRY AIR QUICKLY DURING THE DAY AND LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AT NIGHT. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL LIKELY HAVE SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND THEN SEE TEMPERATURES RISE 30 TO 35 DEGREES DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST WINDS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS IN PLACE. SOME UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND THEN MOVES EAST AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE. THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH THE CANADIAN SLOWER AND THE ECMWF SIMILAR WITH GFS TIMING. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED SLIGHT POPS FOR TUESDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE EXPECTED JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DONAVON 186 FXUS63 KMQT 301946 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 347 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY...THE MID LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. KATRINA OVER KEVV AREA...A RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE FEATURES DEPICT A LOW SOUTHEAST OF JAMES BAY AND T.D. KATRINA OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY. A STATIONARY FRONT CONNECTS THESE TWO CENTERS BY STRETCHING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. TANDEM LOWS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA...WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING THROUGH THESE LOWS. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING AROUND THIS LOW WILL RACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. KATRINA WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL DIVERT THE DAKOTAS LOW INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC HIGH PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ETA CONTINUES TO KEEP SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TONIGHT...WHEREAS GFS LOWERS THESE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. LOOKING AT THE TRAJECTORY FORECAST AND GUIDANCE PLAN TO KEEP DEW POINT CLOSER TO ETA. THE HIGH OVER THE AREA WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THERE SEEMS TO BE A CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR THE DEW POINTS AS WELL. THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE DAKOTA LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THUS THIS SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN U.P. WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WITH THE INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ALOFT...I WILL NOT RULE IT OUT. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC...WHILE THE WESTERN ONTARIO LOW MOVE LITTLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING AROUND THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THE COLD FRONT WILL EDGE INTO CENTRAL U.P. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE U.P. THUS WITH THE INSTABILITY EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. THE WESTERN ONTARIO MID LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN QUEBEC. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BLANKET THE UPPER GREAT LAKES KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE AND DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. FRONTOGENESIS WILL CREATE COLD FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER SASKATCHEWAN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO MANITOBA ON MONDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY OFF SHORE OF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC STATES. THE HIGH WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION COLD FRONT AND DIVERT IT NORTHEAST. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATE WITH THE FRONT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DLG 497 FXUS64 KMRX 301947 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 333 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...LOW CIRCULATION OF KATRINA BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS W KY THIS EVENING. WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS LOW IS SLOW TO FILL. AS THE LOW MOVES NE TNGT...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. LATE AFTN TEMPS JUMPED UP THIS AFTN ACROSS NE AREAS AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALLOWED FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. THIS INCREASED INSTABILITY SUFFICIENTLY TO COINCIDE WELL WITH VERY GOOD LLVL SHEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS PROMPTING TORNADO WATCH THIS EVENING. AXIS OF STABLE AIR SLIDING NE ACROSS CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. THIS SHOULD SLIDE INTO THE WATCH AREA DECREASING THE TORNADO THREAT AND POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR EARLY CANCELLATION OF WATCH. OTHERWISE CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...REMAINS OF KATRINA SHIFT WELL NE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z WED HOWEVER...FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THE CIRCULATION AND A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA DURING THE DAY. USED SOME CHC POPS FOR -SHRA FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST APPEARS TO BE TRANQUIL WITH TOO MUCH DRY AIR ON W-NW FLO ALOFT EVEN DESPITE A WEAK FRONTAL OR TROF PASSAGE AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. LABOR DAY WEEKEND FEATURES HIGHER PRESSURES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES BY TUE AS ELY FLO DEVELOPS CREATING A SMALL CHC FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WILL LEAVE MRX FA DRY FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS AT SUCH A FAR TIME RANGE ON DAY SEVEN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 88 65 89 / 50 20 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 84 63 86 / 50 20 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 69 85 63 86 / 50 20 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 82 59 84 / 60 30 10 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 900 PM EDT. TN...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF TN UNTIL 900 PM EDT. LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF EAST TN UNTIL 900 PM EDT(800 PM CDT. VA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 900 PM EDT. && $$ SON/TH 618 FXUS63 KDVN 301950 AFDDVN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 245 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS KATRINA CONTINUES MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE WX QUIET IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA. COLD FRONT FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIMITED BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWFA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ...08... && .LONGER TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY) WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO PASS WEDNESDAY WITH DISSIPATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE. UPPER RIDGE (SUBSIDENCE) TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL TO BE PATCHY AND LIGHT...AS HAS BEEN CASE IN CURRENT DROUGHT. WENT WITH 30 POPS NW SECTIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCE (20 POPS) REST OF AREA DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE (58-65 DEWPOINTS) AND EVEN LESS FORCING FROM DYING FRONT FOR LIFT. THEN QUIET AND DRY NEXT 5 DAYS (THU-MON) WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY WITHIN THREE DEGREES OR SO OF NORMAL (UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR MINS. WITH DRY GROUND AND DEWPOINTS IN 50S...WIDE DIURNAL SWING FOR TEMPS AS TRIED TO MOVE TOWARD WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND COOL SIDE FOR MINS. TUESDAY...ALL SOLUTIONS SUPPORT DECENT FRONT TO REACH AREA WITH MOISTURE FOR STORMS AND SHOWERS. WENT WITH 30 POPS AND BETTER IDEA ON TIMING NEXT COUPLE DAYS. ..NICHOLS.. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ 08/NICHOLS 682 FXUS64 KMAF 301950 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 249 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS... EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN TO THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND BIG BEND REGIONS OF WEST TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE SCALE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND EXPECT THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IF ANY...WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS PLACE AREAS WEST OF A GDP...VAN...MRF LINE WITHIN A 700-500 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CARRY ISOLATED /10 PCT/ POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THIS LINE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. AS A RESULT...WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A BIT FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS MOST AREAS DURING THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES COOLED OFF NICELY EARLY THIS MORNING UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE...WITH SOME LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE 50S. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TONIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND DRIER AIR WILL HELP TEMPS COOL OFF AGAIN...SO HAVE BUMPED MINS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. .LONG TERM... A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE REMNANTS OF "KATRINA" OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES RATHER QUICKLY TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ARE PROGGED TO BE STRONGEST OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN CO/NM. PRESSURE RISES WANE QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH INCREASING WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE CURRENT POP GRIDS HAVE 10-20% VALUES OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EDDY AND LEA COUNTIES AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES SOUTH INTO THIS AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING FAIRLY STEEP AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S F...POPS ARE WARRANTED DESPITE THE GRIDDED DATA REFUSING TO DEVELOP CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. 700MB MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE STOCKTON PLATEAU AND BIG BEND REGION BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS... WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION REMAINING DRY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES... THE MAV MOS CONTINUES IT/S WARM BIAS WITH BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO MIN TEMPS THROUGH MID- WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS OVER THE REGION. OTHERWISE... ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 66 93 66 92 / 0 10 10 0 CARLSBAD NM 65 95 65 93 / 10 20 20 10 DRYDEN TX 68 97 69 95 / 0 10 0 10 FORT STOCKTON TX 67 96 67 94 / 0 10 10 10 GUADALUPE PASS TX 65 91 63 88 / 10 10 20 10 HOBBS NM 65 94 64 94 / 10 20 20 10 MARFA TX 54 91 58 87 / 10 20 10 20 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 65 92 67 92 / 0 10 10 0 ODESSA TX 66 93 67 95 / 0 10 10 0 WINK TX 68 99 67 98 / 0 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 21/06 973 FXUS64 KAMA 301953 AFDAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 253 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAKE A BIG PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH HELP FROM A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUS EXPECTED...BASED ON THE EARLIER ARRIVAL AND STRONGER PUSH OF THE FRONT. AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE PANHANDLES AND STALLS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE AREA...WEAK UPPER FORCING WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...WHEN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING COME TOGETHER. EXTENDED THE POPS INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER BENIGN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON TUESDAY WHEN THE NEXT DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE PANHANDLES AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMARILLO TX 63 84 61 87 / 10 30 30 30 BEAVER OK 62 85 59 86 / 10 20 20 30 BOISE CITY OK 59 77 54 86 / 10 20 30 30 BORGER TX 64 84 62 87 / 10 20 30 30 BOYS RANCH TX 64 83 62 88 / 10 20 30 30 CANYON TX 61 85 60 87 / 10 30 30 30 CLARENDON TX 65 91 65 88 / 10 30 30 30 DALHART TX 60 78 58 87 / 10 20 30 30 GUYMON OK 60 82 58 86 / 10 20 30 30 HEREFORD TX 61 83 60 88 / 10 30 30 30 LIPSCOMB TX 62 87 62 87 / 10 20 20 30 PAMPA TX 64 86 62 85 / 10 30 30 30 SHAMROCK TX 65 93 65 90 / 10 30 30 30 WELLINGTON TX 66 95 66 91 / 10 30 30 30 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 04/08 285 FXUS64 KTSA 301954 AFDTSA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 254 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION.. DRY AIR HAS FILTERED INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WOULD EXPECT THIS FRONT TO BE DRY AS THE GULF HAS BEEN CUT OFF AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA PER THE NAM MET GUIDANCE. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FLIRT WITH THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF POPS OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS RATHER BENIGN WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 67 94 71 90 / 0 0 10 10 FSM 65 96 70 95 / 0 0 0 10 MLC 64 97 67 94 / 0 0 0 10 BVO 59 94 62 89 / 0 0 10 10 FYV 56 90 62 89 / 0 0 0 10 BYV 61 90 65 87 / 0 0 10 10 MKO 64 94 67 91 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 63 93 65 89 / 0 0 10 20 F10 64 94 65 91 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 67 98 68 98 / 0 0 0 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 14 LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 10 331 FXUS64 KHGX 301954 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 254 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... A WELL DEFINED SEA BREEZE LIES ALONG THE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. SINCE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LIES ALONG THE COAST AND THE SEA BREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED TO PENETRATE TOO FAR INLAND...FEEL BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE CAOST. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A BUILDING CU FIELD OVER THE NW ZONES...SO MIGHT BROAD BRUSH 20 POPS EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING. WILL DECIDE AT PRESS TIME. REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS UNCHANGED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS AN EXPANDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN. PW'S ARE PROGGED TO DRY TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY SO THINK RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A THERMAL INVERSION BUILDING THIS WEEK. SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE UPPERLEVEL RIDGE. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND RAIN CHANCES IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BY MONDAY. THE EMCWF AND NOGAPS KEEP THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND CURRENT THINKING IS MEX NUMBERS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE A TOUCH LOW. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND. 43 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 100 73 98 72 / 0 0 0 10 0 HOUSTON (IAH) 73 98 74 97 73 / 10 10 10 10 0 GALVESTON (GLS) 81 94 82 94 82 / 20 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ 032 FXUS64 KHGX 301955 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 254 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... A WELL DEFINED SEA BREEZE LIES ALONG THE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. SINCE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LIES ALONG THE COAST AND THE SEA BREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED TO PENETRATE TOO FAR INLAND...FEEL BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE CAOST. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A BUILDING CU FIELD OVER THE NW ZONES...SO MIGHT BROAD BRUSH 20 POPS EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING. WILL DECIDE AT PRESS TIME. REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS UNCHANGED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS AN EXPANDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN. PW'S ARE PROGGED TO DRY TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY SO THINK RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A THERMAL INVERSION BUILDING THIS WEEK. SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE UPPERLEVEL RIDGE. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND RAIN CHANCES IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BY MONDAY. THE EMCWF AND NOGAPS KEEP THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND CURRENT THINKING IS MEX NUMBERS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE A TOUCH LOW. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND. 43 && MARINE... A RATHER LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY WEAK WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS. 46 && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AT ANGLETON AROUND SUNRISE AND LIGHT FOG AT COLLEGE STATION. OTHERWISE...MAINLY A FEW CU IN THE LATE MORNING. 46 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 100 73 98 72 / 0 0 0 10 0 HOUSTON (IAH) 73 98 74 97 73 / 10 10 10 10 0 GALVESTON (GLS) 81 94 82 94 82 / 20 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ 425 FXUS64 KEWX 301955 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 255 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY/ADJACENT ESCARPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING UNDER THE COOL NLY FLOW ALOFT...SO MIGHT HAVE TO KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SWWD TO THE TEXAS COAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE SLIGHT WEAKNESS ALOFT AND STG HEATING EACH MORNING DUE TO CLEAR SKIES...ISOLD CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL BE BRIEF AND COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL...SO WILL GO WITH POPS OF 10 PERCENT OR LESS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL X-SECTIONS INDICATE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRI...AND THEREFORE HAVE MENTION OF ISOLD- SLGT CHC POPS EACH DAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE DOMINATE...BUT NOT DOMINATE ENUF TO RULE OUT ISOLATED AIRMASS CONVECTION OR A FEW SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. IN THE LONG TERM FOR NEXT WEEK...THE GFS INDICATES A SHIFT TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN BY LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LATEST ECMWF HOWEVER DOES NOT LOOK AS PROGRESSIVE WITH A RIDGE TO OUR NW OVR NEW MEXICO/WEST TX. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 102 73 98 / 10 10 10 10 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 100 69 99 / 10 10 10 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 99 74 98 / 10 10 10 10 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 99 75 97 / 10 10 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 01 667 FXUS61 KPBZ 301956 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 350 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... REMNANTS OF KATRINA NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL KY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PULL NORTHEAST ACROSS OH TONIGHT AND THROUGH FAR WESTERN NY WEDNESDAY. HEAVIEST RAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS OUR OH COUNTIES BUT WILL HOLD ON TO FFA ALL AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY. ALSO WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH 2 AM WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN OVER REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN -RA BR WILL PERSIST THRU FCST PD AS CENTER OF WHAT IS LEFT OF KATRINA WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD TRACKS WEST OF AREA FROM WRN KY TO ERIE BY WEDNESDAY AM. GFS PROGS LYR OF LLWS IN TIGHT GRADIENT OF SYSTEM 21-06Z. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MDZ001 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR MDZ001 UNTIL 2 AM WEDNESDAY. OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029>032 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR PAZ023-030-032 UNTIL 2 AM WEDNESDAY. WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR WVZ023-041 UNTIL 2 AM WEDNESDAY. && $$ 143 FXUS62 KEYW 301956 AFDEYW FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 400 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... .CURRENTLY... AT THE SURFACE...AN ATLANTIC PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC ACROSS CUBA. TROPICAL STORM KATRINA IS MOVING STEADILY NORTHEASTWARD OVER MISSISSIPPI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS IS A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY. ISLAND LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING RIGHT AROUND 10 MPH...AND MARINE LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING AROUND 10 KNOTS. ALOFT...A BROAD RIDGE IS LOCATED JUST OFF OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. SOUNDINGS AND GPS INDICATES A PW OF 2.2 INCHES. RECENT SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS FOUND BELOW 900 MB WITH DRIER AIR LOCATED ABOVE TO AT LEAST 500 MB. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DETECTED ACROSS KEYS WATERS TODAY...AND THUS FAR...NO HEALTHY TOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WITHIN MARITIME CU CROSSING NORTHWARD OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. .FORECAST... THE ATLANTIC PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CUBA WILL CONTINUE SWINGING NORTHWARD OVER THE KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTHERLY AROUND THE 10 MPH RANGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KATRINA IS BEING SHEARED OUT IN A MID LATITUDE TROUGH PUSHING RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. BY TOMORROW NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF MAINE..WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DRAGGING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEK...BEFORE BEING PUSHED SOUTHWARD AND STRETCHED OUT THIS WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NATION. THROUGH THIS WHOLE PERIOD...THE SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE KEYS. WHILE WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT...THEY WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. IN THE LONGER RANGE...SEVERAL MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN INDICATING A MESSY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH FROM RUN TO RUN THE SPECIFICS ARE EVER CHANGING. ONE THING THAT HAS REMAINED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW IS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS WEEKEND. WILL HOLD OFF ON MAKING ANY DECISIONS. && .MARINE... IT APPEARS THAT THE LAST OF THE LARGE SWELLS EMANATING FROM KATRINA HAVE FINALLY WASHED THROUGH KEYS WATERS. ALL CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS WILL BE DROPPED THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATLANTIC PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE KEYS THROUGH THIS WEEK. WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. && .AVIATION... FOR THE ROUTER FROM IN AND AROUND KEY WEST TO BEYOND MIAMI...A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW GENERATE ONLY LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KEY WEST 81 91 81 91 / 20 30 30 30 MARATHON 82 92 81 92 / 20 30 30 30 && .EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...SD AVIATION/NOWCASTS............APA 448 FXUS65 KCYS 301957 AFDCYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 157 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...AS OF 19Z THE COLD FRONT WAS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE CWA. AT THAT TIME IT APPEARED TO BE LOCATED FROM NORTHERN CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES TO WESTERN CARBON COUNTY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE WESTERLY GUSTING TO 35 MPH. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND SO A MORE NORTHERLY WIND WILL GUST TO 40 MPH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING PREVIOUSLY ISSUED THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE LARAMIE RANGE WESTWARD DUE TO THE WARM...DRY AND WINDY WEATHER. SOME CUMULUS HAVE FORMED OVER THE WYOMING PART OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET. WILL KEEP LOW POPS THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE NORTH AND EAST PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT QPF OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH 06Z WITH OTHER MODELS DRY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE CWA TONIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S. THE CWA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH ON WEDNESDAY FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY AND MUCH COOLER DAY. .LONG TERM...THU...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE INHIBITS TSTMS. ON FRI...RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH LACK OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT TSTMS. DRY SWLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS SAT/SUN. COULD BE ISOLD TSTMS ON SUN NEAR THE CO BORDER ACCORDING TO GFS BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. DRY AGAIN MON PER PROGS. TUE LOOKS SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ALTHOUGH GFS LIKELY A BIT OVERDONE ON COOLING. RUBIN && .FIRE WEATHER...THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN CWA THIS HOUR. KRWL REFLECTING MARGINAL RFW CRITERIA NOW. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS AND LOW RH UNTIL THE REALLY COOL AIR MIXES DOWNWARD. THIS MEAN A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF MARGINAL RFW CRITERIA BUT THE THREAT SHOULD END BEFORE THE END TIME OF 8 PM. TOMORROW WILL BE VERY DRY WITH SOME WIND BUT THE TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER SO NO FIRE WEATHER THREAT. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...RED FLAG WARNING TIL 8 PM FOR THE LARAMIE RANGE WESTWARD. FIRE WEATHER ZONES 292>296. NE...NONE. && $$ WEILAND/SOWKO 842 FXUS63 KGID 301957 AFDGID AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 257 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN SD WITH A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT SEEN PLOWING SOUTHEAST OVER MT AND NORTHEAST WY. DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S PRESENT OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OVER WY AND MT AT THIS TIME. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS PUSH EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOOKS AS THOUGH CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING BUT COULD PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL GIVEN NOCTURNAL TIMING OF CONVECTION AND LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. OTHER POTENTIAL PROBLEM IS THE LEVEL OF WIND SPEEDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE NAM IS SHOWING A DECENT PRESSURE JUMP AND TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BUT GIVEN TIMING OF THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS IT APPEARS ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT BE REACHED. ANTICIPATE ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE FORM OF SOME SHOWERS. HOWEVER THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR A BREEZY AND COOLER DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ARE THEN SHAPING UP TO BE RATHER QUIET ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AND A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE. LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS WILL CREATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOK TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WHILE HIGHS ON THURSDAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS RIDGE IS THEN PUSHED EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. APPEARS AS THOUGH THIS SETUP SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE IN THE MODELS THAT A FRONT WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THIS EXACT TIMING OF A FRONT IS FAIRLY LOW AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING MENTION OF PRECIP UNTIL TIMING OF A POTENTIAL FROPA IS BETTER KNOWN. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ 04 808 FXUS61 KPHI 301958 AAA AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 345 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM-MESOSCALE DISCUSSION(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... A RATHER COMPLEX SCENARIO SHAPING UP TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY, REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. WITH THE TRACK OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, OUR ENTIRE CWA IS PLACED ON ITS EAST SIDE, OR WARM SECTOR. INITIALLY THE WIND FIELDS, BASED OFF OF THE 12Z LWX, WAL, AND OKX SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY WEAK. HOWEVER, SOUNDINGS FURTHER TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SHOW AN INCREASING WIND FIELD AS THESE LOCATIONS ARE CLOSER TO THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA. THE KDIX VWP AS OF 19Z SHOWS RATHER WEAK WINDS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE EVIDENT OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY. THEREFORE, THE WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR CWA. AN EXAMINATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET (925-850 MB), BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE VERY CLOSE WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURE. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 40-45 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT, THE MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER WARM, THUS WEAKER LAPSE RATES. THERE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE EVENING. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY CONVECTION WHICH FORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FORMING IN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORM IN LINES/BANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF KATRINA AND THE LARGE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE CENTER WILL ALLOW OUR CWA TO BE IN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WEDNESDAY. SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 120-250 M2/S2 (EAST TO WEST). THE HELICITY VALUES APPEAR TO PEAK HOWEVER DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING. OF COURSE THE FORECAST CAPE IS BASED ON AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE, WHICH SHOULD OCCUR, BUT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY WILL BE KEY. MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUPERCELLS, ESPECIALLY WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. WHILE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME MIDLEVEL STORM ROTATION, THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER, SOME WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR DUE TOO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND THE FASTER MOTION OF THE STORMS, ESPECIALLY IF HIGHER CAPE VALUES MATERIALIZE. STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITHIN ANY SUPERCELLULAR STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME (SMALL) HAIL. IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, NEAR THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AND GREATER SHEAR AXIS. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT TEND TO FORM, MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LINE/BAND, THEREFORE A BRIEF TORNADO SPIN UP CAN OCCUR QUICKLY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... CDFNT MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN ON NW WINDS. A SECOND DRY FRONT SWINGS THROUGH BY SUNDAY. WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE REFRESHING. && .AVIATION... CONDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING AT THE TAF SITES SUCH THAT NOW MOST ARE VFR OR MVFR FOR CIGS. EXPECT CONDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. SHWRS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DVLP BUT SHOULD INCRS IN COVERAGE THIS AFTN AS THE ATMOS CONTS TO DE-STABILIZE. WE EXPECT SHWRS WILL CONT WELL INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT AS RMNTS OF KATRINA MOVE CLOSER. SFC WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCRG FROM THE SOUTH. CIGS WILL LIKELY GO DOWN TO IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT BUT VSBYS SHOULD BE LESS RESTRICTIVE...GENLY MVFR. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL PASS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...WIND GUSTS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY THURSDAY AS KATRINA MOVES AWAY. NO OTHER PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... FFG HAS NUDGED UPWD AGN AS ALL COUNTIES ARE AOA 3"/HR. HVYST PCPN PTNL FROM KATRINA SHLD OCR TUE/TUE NGT AS HER MOISTURE GETS INGESTED INTO THE BROAD SRLY FLOW. WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2"...AT LEAST LOCALIZED AMTS TO 4" RMN WITHIN THE REALM OF PTNL. GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN OF LATE IF ANY FLDG DOES IT OCR...IT WOULD BE MORE OF A SMALLER STREAM CONCERN AND NOT A MAIN STEM ONE. THE EMPHASIS FOR HVYR PCN WITH THE LATEST MDL RUNS RMNS CLSR TO THE JET OVR CANADA AND NEW ENG AND THUS OVR OUR NRN ZONES. WE WILL CONT TO ISSUE THE SPS ABT THE HVY RAIN PTNL. && .MISCELLANEOUS... WAY BACK WHEN ANALUGS ARE US COMPARED THE APR/MAY TEMP COUPLET AND SAW HOW THE ENSUING SUMMERS WERE. WELL THIS BUSTED BIGTIME AS THIS SUMMER WILL END (IN PHL) IN THE TOP 10 AND MUCH WARMER THAN ANY OF THE PREV ANALOG YEARS. WE/LL PBLY GET MORE MID SHIFTS BECAUSE OF THIS AND WE WON/T QUIT OUR DAY JOB.. YEAR JUN JUL AUG AVG TEMP TOTAL PCPN 1878 67.4 77.6 73.9 73.0 11.84 1891 71.8 71.9 74.3 72.7 11.38 1915 69.6 76.0 73.1 72.9 15.31 1925 78.0 76.2 74.8 76.3 8.16 1938 71.3 77.2 78.4 75.6 20.68 1945 71.5 76.0 74.1 73.9 16.38 1952 74.7 80.1 75.2 76.7 11.95 1954 72.9 77.9 73.5 74.8 8.69 1958 67.8 77.4 73.4 72.9 17.31 1960 70.6 73.3 74.5 72.8 9.42 1968 71.2 77.1 77.8 75.4 9.13 AVG 71.5 76.4 74.8 74.2 12.75 SUM 2005 SO FAR 74.8 78.9 79.6 77.8 10.16 1971-2000 NML 72.3 77.6 76.3 75.4 12.03 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. $$ OVERVIEW/SHORT TERM-MESOSCALE DISC...GORSE AVIATION/MARINE...COPE HYDROLOGY/LONG TERM...MISCELLANEOUS...GIGI 043 FXUS63 KAPX 302000 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 400 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS KATRINA REMAINS AT 992 MB CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. VISIBLE AND WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE LARGE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US WITH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOSTLY SUNNY. AROUND THE CWFA SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKIES ARE REPORTED AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH LAKE SHORES CLEAR. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UPPER PLAINS/MINNESOTA REGION WILL BUILD FURTHER AS IT SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD AS KATRINA REMAINS SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVELS (UNDER 900 MB) WILL BE QUITE MOIST...HOWEVER MIXING SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE AS THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL BE NEARLY NON EXISTENT. WITH THE REMAINS OF KATRINA PULLING EASTWARD WILL KEEP THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWFA AS WV IMAGERY INDICATES PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THIS REGION WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY CURRENTLY INDICATING SOME DEFORMATION ZONE CLOUDINESS MAKING IT TO HTL-OSC AREA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTA/S. KATRINA REMNANTS WILL HAVE MOVED WELL TO THE EAST (FINGER LAKES OF NEW YORK) WITH NORTHERLY FLOW TRYING TO PUSH SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE CWFA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SLIGHT DRYING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE RIDGE PUSHES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA. WILL EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S WILL BE SURPASSED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE (TO AROUND 10 KFT) TO PRODUCE A PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TOWARD EVENING AS THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE BECOMES GREATEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORE WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE SLOWING THE WARMING. MJP WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...KATRINA WILL BE WELL EAST OF NRN MICHIGAN AS IT GETS ENGULFED IN THE PESKY/STAGNANT UPPER LOW SPINNING AROUND JAMES BAY. A SECOND UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE WILL BE RACING ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...ZIPPING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE FAR NE CONUS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC RIDGING GETS PUSHED OUT OF HERE BY FIRST QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS BY THURSDAY MORNING. A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES WITH SECOND COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS QUICK OUT OF THE WNW WITH WEAKER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD. MAINLY A SKY AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS TIME FRAME. AFTER THE DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATES IN THE EVENING SKIES SHOULD GO CLEAR IN THE EVENING. BAND OF 50-60% H8-H5 RH AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ALLOWING STRONGER -DIVQ TO SWEEP ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN UPPER. THE MOISTURE IS MAINLY ALL BELOW 600MB AND IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. COULD STILL SEE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS QUICKLY TRYING TO WORK THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN AS THE FORCING IS MODERATE TO STRONG...BUT BEST OPTION IS TOO LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT THINGS ARE DRYING AS IT TRACK EAST. WOULD NOT BE MUCH QPF AT ALL...MAY A FEW HUNDREDTHS IF SHOWERS WERE TO OCCUR. THIS FRONT EXITS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE SECONDARY SHOT OF FORCING AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES MIDNIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING. 85KT JET MAX AND -2C H7 COLD POOL SEEN WITH THIS WAVE...BUT SAME STORY OF MAYBE LIMITED H8-H5 MOISTURE ONLY REACHING 60% ACROSS WHITEFISH BAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THIS IS BEST LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THE SCENARIO LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS OVER A LARGER AREA. THE MAIN WEATHER MAY END UP BEING SKY AND WINDS. AFTER INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING...H8 WINDS KICK UP TO 25-30KTS AND WE COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE STRAITS WHERE WEST WINDS COULD SEE A LOCAL INCREASE. THESE GUSTY WINDS MAY EVEN PERSIST OVER THE WARMER WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WHILE H9-H8 RH INCREASES TO 70-80% BRINGING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN CWA. WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS CLINGING TO THE CWA FRIDAY...SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FROM STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE AS FLOW TURNS NW. HOWEVER...SFC HIGH WILL BE TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN AN OVERALL SLACKENING GRADIENT. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FAST NW FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY WITH SFC HIGH STILL TRYING TO MAKE IT INTO NRN MICHIGAN. SFC HIGH DOES SETTLE IN BY SATURDAY EVENING AND WE SHOULD SEE A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER A LARGE AREA OF INTERIOR LOCALES. WAA CLOUDS TRY TO SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN NO PRECIP EXPECTED OR INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST. MID LEVEL RIDGING INCREASES EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AND A BIT OF A WARM UP ANTICIPATED...BUT PLAYING THINGS NOT SO WARM JUST YET. COULD SEE 80S NOT TOO FAR OUT OF THE PICTURE...BUT WILL HOLD WITH THE MID-UPPER 70S. SMD && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 483 FXUS63 KABR 302001 AFDABR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 300 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BIGGEST CHALLENGE STILL REMAINS PCPN CHCS FOR TONIGHT...AND TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROF FROM 24 HOURS AGO...AND ARE BEGINNING TO FOCUS BETTER FORCING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. CURRENTLY KBLX 88D SHOWING BAND OF SHRA/ISO TSRA GLIDING EAST ACROSS SRN MT. AS 5H AND 7H TROFS PUSH INTO WRN SODAK LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT THIS PCPN SHIELD TO ALSO ADVECT INTO SODAK. MODELS SHOW SFC TROF SLOWING SLIGHTLY AWAITING UPPER TROFS. DECENT 7H AND 85H THETA-E FORCING NOTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS CWA...WITH GOOD REFLECTION IN OMEGA FIELD. 30/12Z MM5 DBZ FCST SHOWS LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST ACROSS CWA MAINLY 06Z-15Z WEDNESDAY AND THIS LINES UP WELL WITH SLOWER SOLN SHOWN BY MODELS. PWATS STILL INCREASE TO 1.5"+ ALONG I-29 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AND DWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO LOW-MID 60S ACROSS ERN SODAK. 85H 30KT JET SHOULD ALSO AID IN TSRA PRODUCTION. HAVE RE-TWEAKED TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR ALL THE ABOVE. REMAINDER OF NEAR TERM SHOULD BE QUIET AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RECOVER HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BREEZY CONDS WILL PERSIST FOR WED AND PART OF THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. STILL APPEARS TO BE COOL ON WED WITH CAA OVERRUNNING THE CWA...AND STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME CAA SC MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN PART OF CWA. MODERATING TEMP TRENDS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR REST OF NEAR TERM. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EXTENDED RANGE SHAPING UP SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH LITTLE CHANGES NOTED IN THE NEW MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OFF DRY SATURDAY WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THEREFORE FIRST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED COMES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE LOW PUSHING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING FROM THE 20S CELSIUS TO AROUND +10C. TEMPERATURE GRIDS LOOK GOOD WITH WARMING EXPECTED BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND THEN THE COOLDOWN IN STORE FOR TUESDAY. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ HINTZ/ALBRECHT 140 FXUS61 KBTV 302001 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 401 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS... THE LONG ANTICIPATED REMNANTS OF "KATRINA" ARE HEADED TO OUR FA. GFS/TPC/HPC TRACKS HAVE BEEN VRY SMLR AND CONSISTENT THE PAST 2-3 DAYS WITH GFS TRACKING KMSS-KPLB AND TPC ON CANADIAN SIDE OF ST LWRNC VLY. THE ACTUAL REMNANTS INTERACT WITH NRN STREAM DYNAMICS AS KATRINA CONTS TO TRANSLATE TO XTRATROPICAL AND SFC PRS MAINTAINS OR SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENS. NAT'L DISCUSSIONS FM HPC (PMDSPD/PMDHMD AND QPFPFD) XPLAIN THE DVLPG SITUATION ACRS FA. COUPLED UPR JET...INCRSG TROPICAL PWATS TO >2"...STG H8 35-50KTS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION MAKING FOR A RICH... XTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH GFS VRY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS...MY QPF AND WND FIELDS ARE FM A SLGTLY W TRACK OR COMPROMISE BTWN HPC/TPC AND GFS. THE END RESULT WITH THIS IS: 1) SLGTLY LESS QPF VALUES FOR VT VS. MDLS AND MORE IN ST LWRNC VLY. 2) GTR PRS GRADIENT IN CHMPL VLY AND MUCH OF FA...THUS STGR WNDS AS ALL MDLS ONLY BRG 10-20 MPH AT BEST ACRS FA YET LLVL JET EXCEEDS 40 KTS AND THUS HAVE GONE WINDY IN CHMPL VLY. 3) STORM TRACK ACRS NW NY MEANS WRM FNT LKLY LIFTING N OF MUCH OF VT AND PSBLY SE ADRNDKS. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... TNGT: SHRA ALRDY IN WRN NY WITH SCT -TSRA DVLPG IN SRN VT AND DVLPG SHRA BTWN THIS ACTVTY IN MOHAWK VLY/CATSKILLS. THEREFORE...XPCT CONTD DVLPG SHRA/TSRA WITH GRST THREAT ACRS ADRNDKS AND POINTS SE INTO VT. TUE: MOST INDICATIONS THAT THE ABV MNTD ACTVTY WL SHIFT ENE WITH PSG OF MID-LVL SUPPORT AND WE AWAIT MOISTURE RETURN FM KATRINA (WELL IN ADVANCE) FM ACTUAL CIRCULATION. GFS WAS USED FOR THIS WITH SRN FA LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN LIFTING N WITH TIME THRU TUES NGT/WED. TUE/NGT/WED/WED NGT: THE RECENTLY MNTD ACTVTY INCREASES AS KATRINA MVS FURTHER N INTO OH RVR VLY WITH INCREASING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WAA PTRN OF RICH...TROPICAL AIR WITH PWATS AOA 2" ADVECTING INTO BNDRY. GFS TRACK SLIGHTLY E OF HPC...THUS WENT SLIGHT BLEND BUT KATRINA REMNANTS LIFT NE ACRS/W ST LWRNC VLY WITH BEST OVERRUNNING N/W OF TRACK. THUS....MAINLY ST LWRNC VLY. THU...KATRINA HAS PUSHED THRU/N OF FA WITH ERLY CHC OF WRAPARD/CAA INSTABILTY SHRA ALONG N FA WITH GRDL CLRG ELSEWHERE AND LESSER DEWPOINTS AS TROPICAL AIRMASS DEPARTS WITH KATRINA. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... ENSEMBLES DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPCOMING SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACRS NE CONUS FOR FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS ACRS MTNS AND NORTHERN ZNS ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK ULVL FORCING. GIVEN...EXPECTED COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND SOME SURFACE HEATING ON SATURDAY AND STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES...WL MENTION CHC POPS IN MTN ZNS. OTHERWISE...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10 SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE M/U 60S MTNS TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS FOR SATURDAY THRU MONDAY. SFC RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ULVL RIDGE WL SHIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUES AND LLVL WAA DEVELOPS. TEMPS BY TUESDAY WL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH DRY WX CONTINUING. && .AVIATION... FCST CONCERN FOR THE TAFS WL BE TIMING OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF KATRINA. WL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS/ETA 7H OMEGA/MOISTURE FIELDS TO PLACE TIMING OF PRECIP INTO TAFS. I WL MENTION TEMPO BTWN 04-06Z AT MPV/BTV FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP...THEN PREVAILING AFT 06Z WITH TEMPOS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP THRU 18Z WEDS. FOR SLK/MSS WL TEMPO THE ONSET OF PRECIP BTWN 05-07Z...THEN GO WITH PREVAILING GROUP. UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORT RA WITH VIS AROUND 2SM AND CIGS BTWN 010-020KFT. FOR THE PREVAILING GROUP WL GO WITH 4SM -RA/RA WITH CIGS BTWN 015-025KFT. SFC WINDS WL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON WEDS AFTN. ALSO...WIND PROFILES SUPPORT STRONG VEERING OF LLVL WINDS AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR. WITH 85H JET OF 35 TO 40KNTS SOME LLWS WL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS. && .HYDROLOGY... FLD GUIDANCE INDICATES 3.5 TO 6 INCHES IN A 6-12 HR PERIOD WHICH IS PSBL WITH REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS SUCH AS "FLOYD - 1999". AGAIN...FCST VALUES OF 2-4" LCLLY 5" FOR NRN NY WITH 2-4" IN NRN 1/2 OF VT THEN 1"- LCLLY 3" FOR SRN VT. HWVR...A STALLED FNTL BNDRY AND SOME PSBL TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTION PRECEDING "KATRINA" TNGT/TUES CUD LWR THESE VALUES AND NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR PSBL MODIFICATIONS. AS ALWAYS...STAY TUNED FOR PSBL CHGS/LTR UPDATES. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH 11 PM EDT TONIGHT THRU 5 AM EDT THURSDAY VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...FLOOD WATCH 11 PM EDT TONIGHT THRU 5 AM EDT THURSDAY NYZ0026>031-034-035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SLW SHORT TERM...SLW LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER HYDROLOGY...SLW 657 FXUS64 KCRP 302003 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 300 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...ISOL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP ISOLD POPS IN THE FORECAST THRU EARLY THIS EVE FOR LINGERING RWS/TSTMS. TAIL END OF H5 TROF AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD TOMORROW. SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR BUT DO NOT THINK PWS ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND WILL DROP AS LOW AS GFS IS INDICATING (PREFER SOMETHING CLOSER TO NAM PW PROG). SO SHOULD SEE A REPEAT OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND ISOLD CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE TOMORROW. && .MARINE...WEAK TO MODERATE (10-15 KTS) ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS...BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO UNDER 5 KNOTS WITH A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW POSSIBLE BY MORNING NEARSHORE. SEA BREEZE WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE WIND OF 10-15 KTS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTN AND EVE. && .AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS THRU THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF PRECIP. ISOLD RWS/TSTMS WILL CONT THRU THE EARLY EVE ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND BEFORE DISSIPATING. && .LONG-TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER-LEVELS. GFS SHOWING MOISTURE VALUES TO INCREASE BY THURSDAY WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. WILL ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED TSRA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA...WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING THE SEA-BREEZE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLIDE A VERY SHALLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION REINFORCED BY A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS KEEPS WINDS GENERALLY FROM AN ENE DIRECTION DURING THE MORNING SHIFTING ESE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL OVER THE WEEKEND SO AM RELUCTANT TO MENTION PRECIP AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL KEEP GHOST 10 POPS ACROSS THE EAST. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW SOIL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE EFFECTS FROM THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MAX TEMPS NEAR THE VALUES OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO COOL INTO THE LOW/MID 70S AREAWIDE DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS CORPUS CHRISTI 074 101 075 099 074 / 05 10 00 05 05 VICTORIA 073 099 073 099 072 / 05 10 05 10 05 LAREDO 080 106 080 104 077 / 00 05 00 00 00 ALICE 074 103 074 101 073 / 10 10 05 10 05 ROCKPORT 078 096 078 096 077 / 05 05 00 05 05 COTULLA 074 104 074 103 074 / 00 05 05 00 05 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ JR...SHORT-TERM MJ...LONG-TERM 024 FXUS63 KGRR 302003 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 403 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM... IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE ERN PART OF THE COUNTRY IS OF COURSE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM KATRINA. THE FIRST FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS PACKAGE IS TO DETERMINE PCPN CHCS IF ANY FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW WITH THE NRN EXTENT OF THE PCPN SHIELD. THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS POISED TO COME THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON THU. PCPN CHCS WILL HAVE TO BE DETERMINED WITH THIS FEATURE. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS AS OF 19Z THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER KY. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA EXTENDING FROM SRN IL...ACROSS IN...OH...AND KY...INTO PA. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE PCPN SHIELD CURRENTLY LIES FROM KCMI...TO JUST NORTH OF KFWA...AND THEN TO MONROE OVER SE LOWER. THE TREND OF THE PCPN SHIELD HAS BEEN FOR THE NE SECTION OF THE PCPN TO MOVE NNE WHILE THE NW SECTION OF THE PCPN HAS PRETTY MUCH REMAINED STATIONARY. THIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING IT MOVE TOWARD THE NE. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PCPN SHIELD SHOULD SNEAK UP INTO JACKSON COUNTY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH SOME LIGHT PCPN MAYBE MAKING IT JUST A TAD FURTHER NORTH TO AROUND LANSING. THE DRY AIR IN PLACE PER THE 12Z RAOBS FROM DTX AND APX...AND THE SUBSIDENCE ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE FGEN/ DEFORMATION BAND ARE HELPING TO DIMINISH THE PCPN AS IT TRIES TO MOVE NORTH. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NE THROUGH TONIGHT...THIS BAND WILL PIVOT AND EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE CWFA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WE WILL GO WITH SCT POPS (50 PCT) FOR JACKSON COUNTY AND CHC TYPE POPS FOR THE COUNTIES SURROUNDING IT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWFA WHILE NRN AREAS SHOULD SEE NO WORSE THAT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S UP NORTH WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER WILL BE FOUND. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 60 OVER THE SOUTH WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS WILL BE LOCATED. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE PCPN SHOULD PIVOT OUT OF THE CWFA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. THEN AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NE...THE CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH THE CLOUDS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CLEAR OUT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CU DEVELOPMENT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE. THE NAM CU RULE IS SHOWING BKN-OVC CU POTENTIAL. WE FEEL THIS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE AND THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE CU POTENTIAL AS THE DAY GOES ON. DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP KEEP CU LIMITED SOMEWHAT. HIGHS ACROSS THE CWFA SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WED EVENING...AND WILL THEN SLIP EAST OF THE CWFA OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE CWFA FROM THE NW. CU WILL BE LEFTOVER EARLY IN THE EVENING...BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...SOME MID AND AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE IN. THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AS IT DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD MOISTURE FEED. IN ADDITION...THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA MERGING WITH THE WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA WITH IT. SKIES WILL LIKELY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER A COUPLE HOURS OF SOME CLEAR SKIES. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTENDING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN TO CENTRAL IL AT 12Z THU MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA BY MID THU AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WHAT MOISTURE THAT IS WITH THE SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT INITIALLY IS EXPECTED TO DRY UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE DRIER AIR MASS AND AS THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER ENERGY SUPPORTING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TOM STAY NORTH OF THE CWFA AND SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE DIMINISHING AS THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE. EVEN INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AS 78/60F SFC PARCEL LIFTED HAS A GOOD AMOUNT OF CIN. WE HAVE HAD A DRY FORECAST RUNNING WITH THIS FROPA...AND I SEE NO NEED TO CHANGE THIS THINKING. AS THE FRONT MOVES WELL EAST OF THE CWFA THU NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS. .LONG TERM... A DRY EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON THE HORIZON. THERE ARE SOME INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS/DGEX CONCERNING A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH AND MOST INTENSE. THE ECMWF/DGEX SOLUTIONS ARE WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH. EITHER WAY, ALL THE SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT THE WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. IN IT'S WAKE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL BUILD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MCS FORMATION OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AS A LLJ INTERSECTS THE WARM FRONT, BUT THAT WOULD BE WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. WE'LL RUN WITH A DRY FCST THROUGH TUESDAY. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE && $$ NJJ 93 037 FXUS64 KMOB 302004 AAA AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 300 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...WFO TAE STILL BACKING UP WFO MOB ON PUBLIC...MARINE...FIRE WEATHER AND GRID PRODUCTS. REMNANTS OF KATRINA HAS MOVED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ADDITIONAL SURFACE FEATURES SHOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10-20 KTS ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL/TROUGH BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM KATRINA DOWN ACROSS THE MS VALLEY WITH EXTENSIVE DRYING CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. TEMPS ARE AROUND 90 WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NEAR DESTIN TO BUOY 42040. NO SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER INLAND AREAS AS YET. && .SHORT TERM (WED THROUGH FRI)...DRY AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S BUT LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE IT A LOT MORE BEARABLE. THE CHANCES FOR RAIN DISAPPEARS AFTER TOMORROW. .LONG TERM (SAT THROUGH NEXT TUES)...ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A LARGE SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT...COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AS THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS FL AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...COUPLED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...NE FLOW WILL BRING MORE MODERATING TEMPS...HOPEFULLY...AND ADDITIONAL DRY AIR TO THE REGION. THERE ARE HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXTENDED. GFS SHOWS A LOT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ANY MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN. && .MARINE...FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE AREA IS SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE. WILL PROBABLY DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. && .FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON WED WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 30S IN SE MS FOR A FEW HOURS. ON THU...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 30 TO 35 WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 74 93 71 93 / 20 20 10 10 PENSACOLA 76 92 72 92 / 30 30 10 10 DESTIN 75 91 72 92 / 30 30 20 10 EVERGREEN 71 92 67 93 / 20 30 10 10 WAYNESBORO 67 94 67 94 / 20 10 10 10 CAMDEN 69 92 66 93 / 20 20 10 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. && $$ 12-WATSON 366 FXUS63 KGRB 302005 AFDGRB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 300 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY DURING THE REST OF THE WORK WK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER THAT. A BRIEF COOL-DOWN IS EXPECTED EARLY AS UPR TROF EDGES E OF THE AREA...WITH WLY FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS RETURNING TO AOA NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND. A RETURN TO SIG ABV NORMAL TEMPS IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WK. THE CHC OF WIDESPREAD SIG PCPN WL BE LOW... THOUGH THE PROSPECT FOR SIG PCPN JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FCST CYCLE WAS BETTER. .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST FOCUS ON CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS. MASS OF LOW CLOUDS UNDERNEATH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA A CONCERN TONIGHT. IF THE CLOUDS ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH FOG FORMATION WILL BE LIMITED TONIGHT. HOWEVER IF THE CLOUDS STAY TO THE NORTH PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN MOST OF THE CWA AS THE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE HIGH APPEARS TO STAY TO THE NORTH AS THE LOW IN THE PLAINS DEVELOPS WILL OPT WITH THE SECOND SOLUTION AS THE LOW CLOUDS STAY TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE WILL INCREASE FOG COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA AND DECREASE CLOUD COVER IN THE GRIDS. THE EASTERN CWA WILL SEE LESS FOG WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND AND MORE MIXING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE FOGGING IN WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THE NAM MOS NUMBERS SUGGEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS RADIATIONAL COOLING PREVENTS LOWS DEPICTED ON THE GFS MOS. THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY INTO MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALL MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY SO WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS THE GFS HAS TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE NAM MOS NUMBERS. GIVEN SUNSHINE THE LOW NAM NUMBERS SEEM TOO LOW HOWEVER THE GFS NUMBERS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED IN MINNESOTA TODAY WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE SLOW. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND GO SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THESE NUMBERS. .LONG TERM...WED NGT THROUGH NEXT TUE. CONTD TREND OF PREV FCST IN BRINGING A CHC OF PCPN ACRS THE AREA WED NGT. GREATEST CHC WL BE ACRS THE N...BUT WITH SHRTWV WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY THIS WON/T BE A SIG PCPN EVENT. SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WX WITH SLOWLY INCRG TEMPS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD ACRS THE AREA. MED RANGE MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN YDA...AND NOW PULLED BACK ON THE IDEA OF DEEPENING A TROF SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WK. INSTEAD...THE MODELS SHOWED RIDGING BUILDING EWD ACRS ONTARIO. HIGH UPR HEIGHTS AND WARM 850 MB TEMPS SUGGESTED THAT TEMPS COULD WARM SIG ABV NORMAL. GIVEN THE CHG FM YDA...DIDN/T ADJUST TEMPS TO QUITE AS WARM A LEVELS AS THE MODELS INDICATED. HOWEVER...DID PUSH FCST IN THAT DIRECTION WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST AREAS FOR SUN/MON/ TUE. LATER SHIFTS CAN ADJUST THESE UP FURTHER AND INCR HUMIDITIES IF THE MODELS CONT TO FCST A SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. STG UPR TROF HEADING EWD INTO THE AREA WL BRING A CHC OF TSTMS...BUT HELD THAT OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER THE END OF THE FCST CYCLE. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ KURIMSKI/SKOWRONSKI WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY 809 FXUS61 KAKQ 302006 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 400 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SCTD SHWRS/ISO TSTMS FINALLY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACRS CNTRL NC/WRN 1/2 VA. TOR WATCH CONTINUES JUST TO WEST OF OUR PIEDMNT CNTYS BUT SO FAR NO WATCH IN AKQ CWA. WINDS ARE GNRLY SE AT SFC...TO SSW AT 900-800 MB. STRGST LOW LVL JET SEGMENT LOOKS TO PUSH ACRS WRN VA ALONG MTNS...JUST BRUSHING THE PIEDMNT CNTYS. THIS IS WHERE BEST SHEAR EXISTS...BUT BEST INSTABLTY RESIDES FARTHER EAST. WE'LL LIKELY SEE SHWRS/ISO TSTMS BECMG MORE NUMEROUS W OF I-95 THRU OVER NXT FEW HRS...JUST CHC/MORE SCTD FARTHER EAST (WHERE DYNAMICS AND LOW LVL CONV ARE WEAKER FARTHER REMOVED FROM TD KATRINA NOW IN KY/SRN IND). RUC SHOWS BEST UPR DIV/LOW LVL CONV COUPLET DRIFTING NWD OVERNGT...SO WILL CONT LKLY POPS ACRS THE NORTH OVERNGT BUT THINK TSTM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE EVENG...ESP WESTERN ZONES. WED/THU...REMANNTS OF KATRINA FCST TO ACCELERATE NEWD INTO NY STATE BY WED AFTN...DRIVING A COLD FRONT THRU MID ATLC WED NGT. OUT AHEAD SW FLOW WILL INCREASE WED BOOSTING TEMPS INTO MID 90S SE VA/NE NC...AROUND 90 NRN AND WEST ZONES. WILL HOLD OFF ON HEAT ADVSRY AS WLY FLOW SHOULD DROP DEW PTS SOMEWHAT IN AFTN...CAPPING HEAT INDICES AT 105 OR LWR. MSTR BECMS MORE LMTD (ESP AFTER ERLY MRNG) AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN ALONG W/ WLY FLOW IN LOW TO MID LVLS. WILL CARRY 20-30 POPS DUE TO STRG DYNAMICS AND MAY SEE SOME ISO SVR IN NRN ZONES DURING AFTN. OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER AIR THEN FILTERS IN WED NGT/THU...W/ DOWNSLOPING KEEPING TEMPS FAIRLY WARM AGAIN THURSDAY...UPR 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/ OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING AN UPR TROF NEAR HUDSON BAY W/ STRG CONFLUENCE TO BUILD SFC HIGH PRES INTO THE MIDWEST FRI. BY SUNDAY WK RIDGING BEGINS TO DRIFT INTO THE MIDWEST...SHIFTING THE SFC HIGH INTO THE NE CONUS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRI/SAT...THEN DROP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW LVL FLOW TURNS N TO NE. SOME RETURN MSTR/CSTL TROF LOOKS TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SRN MID ATLC BY LATE MON NGT/TUE. HAVE A DRY FCST FRI THROUGH MONDAY...THEN CHC SOUTH TO SCHC OTHER ZONES FOR PRECIP NEXT TUE. && .AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. POSSIBLE MVFR IN SHRAS OR ISLTD TSRAS. .MARINE...S OR SW WNDS INCRS TO JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA TNGT AND LAST INTO WED NGT...DUE TO KATRINA MOVNG BY TO OUR NW AND N AND PULLING A COLD FRNT ACRS REGION. ONLY GOING WITH SCA FOR SEAS FOR NRN CSTL ZNS TNGT INTO WED NGT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR MDZ025 FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM WEDNESDAY. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ650-670 FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM WEDNESDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ652 FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON WEDNESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...BROWN AVIATION/MARINE...32 097 FXUS62 KFFC 302011 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 345 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM... KATRINA DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION...BUT STILL PACKING A PUNCH AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE-OHIO VALLEY REGION. WINDS DIMINISHING AND WILL CANCEL WIND ADVISORY WITH ISSUANCE OF NEW ZONES. SPIRAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA AFFECTING MAINLY EAST SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NEED TO HOLD ON TO LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS HOLDING ON TO SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND HINTING AT WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY..WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF OUR AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WEAK TROUGH APPEARS TO LINGER JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS MAINTAIN DRYING OVER OUR AREA AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST. .LONG TERM... UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. LATEST RUN OF GFS HINT AT UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN SOME TUESDAY...ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO COME ONSHORE SPREADING CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY INTO EAST SECTS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATLANTA 71 87 69 89 / 20 20 10 10 ATHENS 69 91 66 90 / 20 20 10 5 GAINESVILLE 69 87 65 88 / 20 20 10 10 ROME 71 90 65 93 / 20 20 20 10 COLUMBUS 72 92 71 93 / 20 20 10 5 MACON 74 92 67 92 / 30 20 10 5 .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 072 FXUS63 KARX 302013 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED WITH THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD. 18Z DATA ANALYSIS SHOWED THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS KY/TN. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM WESTERN ONT TO OK. THE NEXT TROUGH/LOW TO IMPACT MN/IA/WI WAS TAKING SHAPE IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. PLENTY OF 925-850MB MOISTURE OVER ONT/WESTERN GREAT LAKES WAS BEING ADVECTED SOUTHWEST ACROSS MN/WI...PRODUCING SCT-BKN CU/STRATO-CU OVER WI...EASTERN MN/IA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WERE A BIT COOLER TODAY UNDER THE CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. 30/12Z MODELS WERE REASONABLY WELL INITIALIZED...BUT FOR NAM SOME 1-3DM TOO HIGH WITH 700-500MB HGTS FROM MN TO NM. LATEST NAM/GFS OFFER QUITE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT THRU FRI. DPROG/DT SHOWS THE 28/12Z AND 29/12Z MODELS VERIFIED QUITE WELL AT 30/12Z. IN THE 24-60HR TIME-FRAME...BOTH NAM/GFS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE REGION. EARLIER GFS RUNS WERE BETTER IN THIS SLOWER/STRONGER REGARD. MODEL TREND IN THE 60-84HR TIME- FRAME IS FASTER MOVING THE UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA AND FASTER BUILDING HGTS ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. BOTH NAM/GFS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SFC MASS FIELDS AND SHORTWAVE FEATURES ACROSS THE CONUS/CAN AT 18Z. NAM WAS 0-5F TOO WET WITH DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AT 18Z...WHILE GFS WAS 0-5F TOO DRY. BLEND OF NAM/GFS WAS BEST WITH 12Z-18Z PRECIP ACROSS THE CONUS. WITH NO CLEAR MODEL FAVORITE AND BOTH PRESENTING RATHER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT-FRI...FAVORED A NAM/GFS BLEND. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD FOR THE SHORT TERM. FOR THE SHORT TERM...VIS IMAGERY SHOWS BULK OF CU/STRATO-CU SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...FOR LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAKE FOR ANOTHER FAVORABLE NIGHT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG...AND CONTINUED THIS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS. FORECAST THINKING FOR THE TROUGH/FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WED/WED EVENING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. THE STRONGER UPPER TROUGH OFFERS MORE DYNAMICS AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA CENTERED ON 00Z THU...BUT REMNANT CIRCULATION OF KATRINA KEEPS GULF MOISTURE CUT OFF FROM THE AREA. THIS SHORTWAVE/SFC FRONT CONTINUE TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WED...AND BOTH NAM/GFS GENERATE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z WED-06Z THU. LEFT WED AFTERNOON/ EVENING POPS IN THE CHANGE RANGE FOR NOW. WITH TENDENCY OF NAM SFC DEW POINTS TO BE TOO HIGH...ITS RESULTING CAPE AROUND 00Z THU APPEARS OVERDONE. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY...THE FRONT AND PV ADVECTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE...DID LEAVE IN MENTION OF TSRA WED AFTERNOON/ EVENING...WHICH BLENDS WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. COLD ADVECTION... SUBSIDENCE...DRYING SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE LATER WED NIGHT/THU. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT AS HGTS BUILD ALOFT. THU THRU FRI NIGHT GRIDS ALREADY TRENDED PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR AND THIS LOOKS WELL TRENDED UNDER THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT SIMILAR AND LOOK REASONABLE. FAVORED BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS WED AND THU. FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS WED NIGHT WITH SOME WIND TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED. GUIDANCE LOWS THU NIGHT SIMILAR AND LOOK GOOD. GFS MEX/ENSEMBLE MOS HIGHS FRI SIMILAR AND LOOK TO BE IN THE BALLPARK. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER MEX-MOS LOWS FRI NIGHT WITH A DRY AIRMASS AND THE SFC HIGH CENTERED OVERHEAD. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY 30/00Z ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR TO 00Z TUE...AND REASONABLY SIMILAR TO THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE NEXT TROUGH/FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLES OFFER DECENT CONSENSUS WITH MODEST VARIABILITY TO 00Z SUN. ENSEMBLE VARIABILITY INCREASES BY 00Z MON AND ON TO 00Z WED AS THE MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE MID- CONTINENT UPPER RIDGE AND BRING THE NEXT TROUGH EASTWARD. THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THIS TIME-FRAME ARE NOT UNEXPECTED. MODEL CONSENSUS HOLDS THE SFC/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA FOR SAT THRU MON... FOR DRY...QUIET WEATHER. DGEX/ECMWF/UKMET ALL BRING A TROUGH/FRONT INTO THE REGION BY TUE...WHILE 30/00Z GFS HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL TUE NIGHT. 30/06Z GFS TIMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CONUS SAT/SUN...A SLOWER SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD SAT-MON. DID INTRODUCE SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR TSRA TUE WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW FOR TUE WITH THE ENSEMBLE VARIABILITY AND TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TIMING CONCERNS IN THIS TIMEFRAME. GFS MEX/ENSEMBLE-MOS MAXES/MINS SAT-TUE QUITE SIMILAR THRU THE PERIOD AND LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ RRS 861 FXUS64 KJAN 302016 AFDJAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 315 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... REMNANTS OF KATRINA NOW CENTERED ALONG I-65 BETWEEN KBWG AND KSDF IN CENTRAL KY...WITH LOCAL EFFECTS DIMINISHING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE PRODUCED A REASONABLY DENSE CU FIELD ACROSS THE CWFA...DENSEST ACROSS THE NERN ZONES NEAR KCBM. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT KATRINA REMNANTS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL WITH A COLD FRONT-LIKE FEATURE EXTENDING FROM KBNA SW TO NEAR KGLH. THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT AREA WX TOMORROW. FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...COULD STILL SEE AN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE FAR NERN ZONES. AS NOTED ON KNQA RADAR WITH DEVELOPMENT IN FAR NRN MS...STEEP LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN ATMOSPHERE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND WILL MAINTAIN SOME POPS THERE. OTHERWISE...MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE FOG...AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR RADIATION FOG CONDITIONS. FRONT NOTED EARLIER WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW...WHILE LONGWAVE TROF FEATURE ALIGNED SW TO NE REMAINS IN PLACE. EARLIER RUNS OF THE 12KM NAM SHOWED SOME QPF ACROSS FAR SRN ZONES...WHICH LOOKED REASONABLE...WHILE THE NEW 18Z RUN IS MOSTLY DRY. AGREE WITH PVS FORECASTER ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD-SCTD ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WEAK FORCING...SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-20. TEMPS SHOULD RUN JUST ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON 850MB TEMPS...SO MOS VALUES GENERALLY LOOKED OK. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS NLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. DAYS 3-7 LOOK FAIRLY DRY AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...THOUGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS IF HIGH IS AS STRONG AS RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES FROM MIDNIGHT/MORNING UPDATE SHIFTS ATTM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 68 93 68 94 / 20 20 10 10 MERIDIAN 68 92 65 93 / 20 30 10 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ BCC/HA - HUN 333 FXUS64 KBMX 302018 AFDBMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 318 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY) REMNANTS OF KATRINA STILL PRODUCING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN PART OF ALABAMA. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA OVERNIGHT DUE TO ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. I WILL KEEP 20% RAIN CHANCES IN ALL ZONES OVERNIGHT. SFC MAP SHOWS LOWER DEWPOINTS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN INTO ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS KATRINA LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...AND THIS WILL CREATE A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEEPEN AND AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND KATRINA. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN THE AIRMASS WILL OCCUR THESE TWO DAYS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL EFFECTIVELY HEAT MORE EFFICIENTLY AND OFFSET SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESS VALUES. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY) THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS RATHER TRANQUIL AS GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. GFS INDICATING A WEAK UPPER TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SMALL RAIN CHANCES SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HIGHS/LOWS WILL SHOW LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GADSDEN 69 88 66 90 / 20 10 10 10 ANNISTON 69 89 67 90 / 20 10 10 10 BIRMINGHAM 69 90 66 91 / 20 10 10 10 TUSCALOOSA 69 93 66 93 / 20 10 10 10 CALERA 69 92 67 92 / 20 10 10 10 AUBURN 72 90 69 91 / 20 20 10 10 MONTGOMERY 72 92 68 92 / 20 20 10 10 TROY 72 91 68 92 / 20 20 10 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. && $$ 58/ROSE 358 FXUS66 KLOX 302018 AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 120 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...PATCHY CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE SKIES ARE CLEAR. TEMPS MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM MONDAY, EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPED AND WARMED THINGS UP DRAMATICALLY. VBX RADAR SHOWED THESE WINDS EARLIER THIS MORNING BEFORE WE LOST COMMUNICATION WITH IT, BUT THE VBG UPPER AIR SOUNDING JUST SHOWED THE TRADITIONAL NORTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE SO WE DIDN'T PICK UP ON THIS WARMING UNTIL IT WAS TOO LATE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE GRADIENTS SHOULD START REVERSING UP THERE WEDNESDAY SO WE DON'T EXPECT A REPEAT OF TODAY'S EVENTS. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK WHICH MAY BRING A RETURN TO MORE OF A MARINE LYR PATTERN, BUT EITHER WAY WE SHOULD SEE DAYTIME TEMPS DECREASING A COUPLE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DRY AND CLEAR AIRMASS AND THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP OFF SEVERAL DEGREES, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATION VALLEYS WHERE 30S WILL BE COMMON THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS. .LONG TERM...AGAIN LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. && .AVIATION... THE CENTRAL COAST HAS CLEARED OUT COMPLETELY AND LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT LIKELY TO RETURN ANY TIME TONIGHT. IN FACT...LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPED JUST AFTER THE 12Z KVBG SOUNDING WAS RELEASED AND HAS RESULTED IN SOME NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR KSBP. SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...THERE MAY BE PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AT KLAX/KLGB/KOXR. FOR NOW...JUST MENTIONING SCT CLOUDS AT THOSE TAF SITES. WE ARE ALSO PLEASED TO ANNOUNCE OUR NEW TAF SITE AT KOXR...OPERATIONAL SINCE 18Z TODAY. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...WOFFORD AVIATION...SWEET 430 FXUS63 KFSD 302019 CCA AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST PERIOD TO BEGIN AND END WITH ACTIVE WEATHER WHILE VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN BETWEEN. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. BYZ AND GGW RADARS INDICATE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT. CLOSER TO HOME...WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE WEST OF THE JAMES AND EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE DECOUPLES...THEN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FLY ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED NEAR THE I-29 CORRIDOR AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. FAIRLY DECENT DYNAMICS WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS BAND ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER WITH 850-700 MB AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AT 6.5-7 AND 6.75-7.25 DEGREES PER KILOMETER RESPECTIVELY...AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTREMELY HARD TO COME BY...HAVE KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN CHECK IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. CONTINUED TO FOCUS HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH WHERE STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS IS LOCATED. FRONT WILL SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST RAPIDLY INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LITTLE TO FOCUS ON IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS...AND KEPT FORECAST MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY AS A RESULT. AIR MASS IS DRY...AND HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. NEXT WEATHER MAKER EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE MARGINALLY HIGHER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...AND WITH A MODERATELY STRONG FRONT EXPECTED... HAVE MAINTAINED THE GOING 30-40 PERCENT POPS. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ BT 626 FXUS63 KBIS 302021 AFDBIS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH AND FRONT MOVING SLOWER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. EXPECT FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 5 TO 7 PM ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS MONTANA HAS BEEN REPORTING 30 TO 40 KT WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE THIS EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD UP CAPE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SO A SHORT PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL THE CURRENT THINKING. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE SO WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE SPENT UNDER A BUILDING 500 MB RIDGE SO EXPECT QUIET WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ON SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL H500 RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AS A H500 TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES. BY MONDAY MORNING THE H500 TROUGH IS EMERGING EAST OF THE ROCKIES BRINGING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT TO THE REGION. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY DRY FOR NOW AS MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN H500 COLD POOL IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY...WESTERN THIRD...TONIGHT. && $$ WAA/JV 792 FXUS64 KEPZ 302023 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 223 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE BORDERLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER EASTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION BEGINNING ON FRIDAY WHILE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND LATEST DATA ALL INDICATE SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS ARE IN A DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS FLOWING AROUND UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS THE CWA VICINITY INTO THURSDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER MOST AREAS THE NEXT TWO DAYS. WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CWA ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINING WITH HEAT LOW OVER ARIZONA TO SUSTAIN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH OF THE AREA AND DEVELOP AN EAST-WEST AXIS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. PATTERN CHANGE WILL THUS INDUCE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WITH ATTENDANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. LONGER RANGE GFS ALSO INDICATING WEAK INVERTED TROUGHS/SHORT WAVES WILL BE EMBEDDED IN MEAN UPPER FLOW PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BEGINNING SUNDAY AS DEEPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS GREAT BASIN. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME MID LEVEL DRYING BUT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD SUSTAIN ADEQUATE MOISTURE INFLOW TO KEEP THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 70 100 73 97 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 SIERRA BLANCA TX 65 99 64 96 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 LAS CRUCES 67 100 69 97 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 ALAMOGORDO 67 96 69 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 CLOUDCROFT 48 79 49 76 44 / 0 10 10 10 20 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 66 99 66 96 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 SILVER CITY 61 96 63 93 59 / 0 10 10 10 20 DEMING 65 99 67 96 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 LORDSBURG 64 99 67 96 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NM, TX...NONE. && $$ 05 ROGASH 019 FXUS65 KPIH 302024 AFDPIH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO IDAHO 230 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... UPPER TROF SLIDING EAST TODAY WITH VERY COLD FOR LATE AUGUST CONDITIONS ACROSS SE IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. DO HAVE A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING CONVERGENCE ZONE AS WINDS RUN NORTHERLY IN NORTHERN PART OF SNAKE PLAIN. BAND OF PRECIP JUST NORTH OF POCATELLO. NOT SURE YET IF NEED TO ADD SOME LOW POPS WITH THIS JUST YET AS NOT SURE IF ANY REACHING GROUND AT THIS POINT. PRECIP IN UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS HAS SLID EAST INTO WYOMING WITH ONLY SOME SHOWERS BETWEEN PALISADES AND DRIGGS ON RADAR RIGHT NOW. WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN EVERYWHERE WITH EXCEPTION OF BURLEY TO POCATELLO WHERE WEST WINDS STILL GOING. EVERYONE SHOULD TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. AS WINDS DIE DOWN...WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AFTER CONVERGENCE ZONE DISSIPATES. INDICATED POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST IN LOWER AND UPPER SNAKE PLAIN AS SOME LOWS WILL APPROACH FREEZING. DONT THINK WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR WARNING AT THIS POINT. AFTER TONIGHT...SHOULD BE QUIET FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. GET INTO DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WED AND THUR WHICH TURNS SW BY FRIDAY. WILL SEE SLOW STEADY WARMUP WITH THIS AND TEMPS BACK INTO MID 80S BY THURSDAY IN VALLEYS. NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY...BUT RIGHT NOW BOTH EC AND GFS KEEP ENERGY AND PRECIP TO NORTH AND KEPT ZERO PRECIP CHANCES FOR NOW. MAY SEE SOME WIND AND COOLER TEMPS BY SUNDAY WITH A POSSIBLE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THAT FAR OUT...NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT WITH ANY TIMING SO DIDNT MAKE WHOLESALE GRID CHANGES AT ALL. OVERALL PREVIOUS GRIDS STILL PASS AS TO WHAT THE CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING. BASICALLY LOOKING AT QUIET WEATHER FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. GK && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RW && .PIH WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WEATHER INFORMATION ON-LINE 24-HOURS A DAY (ALL LOWER-CASE LETTERS) WWW.WEATHER.GOV/POCATELLO 161 FXUS63 KEAX 302025 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... FOCUS FOR OUR AREA TURNS TO THE WEST AND THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...AND CONTINUE TO BRING IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -3 TO -6 AND CAPES GREATER THAN 1200 J/KG. HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND EXPECT NOT MUCH MORE THAN A SLIVER OF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED JUST SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. BUT ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP MAY BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND HAVE LOWERED BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES MORE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR LOWS. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN NORTH TO OUR AREA...THEREFORE HAVE HELD ONTO A DRY FORECAST. IF DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE IS ABLE TO NOSE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINT AT...THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE REALIZED AND TRACK INTO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. NRR/STOFLET && .PREV DISCUSSION... 320 AM TUE... TROPICAL STORM KATRINA HAS ACCELERATED DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS AND PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGE IS CROSSING THE ALABAMA TENNESSEE BORDER. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER'S FORECAST TRACK FOR KATRINA IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSIVE GFS. THE 00Z NAM IS SLOWER AND HAS BEEN DISREGARDED. KATRINA WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH CARVES ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY, AND ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS, THE FRONT WILL BE IN NORTHERN MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, BUT MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. 850MB WIND TRAJECTORIES IN NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH CONTRIBUTING TO THE RELATIVELY SCANT MOISTURE SUPPLY. SOME MOISTURE IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THIS MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY PRESENT IN A NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER 850MB DEWPOINTS EXTENDING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, BUT EVEN WITH THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE FEED PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE 20 PERCENT OR LESS. A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY'S SYSTEM. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY TIME FRAME. UNTIL THEN, DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. KOCH && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. $$ WFO EAX 666 FXUS61 KPHI 302027 AAA AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION FOR WWA SECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 425 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM-MESOSCALE DISCUSSION(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... A RATHER COMPLEX SCENARIO SHAPING UP TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY, REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. WITH THE TRACK OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, OUR ENTIRE CWA IS PLACED ON ITS EAST SIDE, OR WARM SECTOR. INITIALLY THE WIND FIELDS, BASED OFF OF THE 12Z LWX, WAL, AND OKX SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY WEAK. HOWEVER, SOUNDINGS FURTHER TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SHOW AN INCREASING WIND FIELD AS THESE LOCATIONS ARE CLOSER TO THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA. THE KDIX VWP AS OF 19Z SHOWS RATHER WEAK WINDS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE EVIDENT OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY. THEREFORE, THE WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR CWA. AN EXAMINATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET (925-850 MB), BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE VERY CLOSE WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURE. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 40-45 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT, THE MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER WARM, THUS WEAKER LAPSE RATES. THERE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE EVENING. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY CONVECTION WHICH FORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FORMING IN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORM IN LINES/BANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF KATRINA AND THE LARGE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE CENTER WILL ALLOW OUR CWA TO BE IN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WEDNESDAY. SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 120-250 M2/S2 (EAST TO WEST). THE HELICITY VALUES APPEAR TO PEAK HOWEVER DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING. OF COURSE THE FORECAST CAPE IS BASED ON AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE, WHICH SHOULD OCCUR, BUT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY WILL BE KEY. MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUPERCELLS, ESPECIALLY WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. WHILE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME MIDLEVEL STORM ROTATION, THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER, SOME WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR DUE TOO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND THE FASTER MOTION OF THE STORMS, ESPECIALLY IF HIGHER CAPE VALUES MATERIALIZE. STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITHIN ANY SUPERCELLULAR STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME (SMALL) HAIL. IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, NEAR THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AND GREATER SHEAR AXIS. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT TEND TO FORM, MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LINE/BAND, THEREFORE A BRIEF TORNADO SPIN UP CAN OCCUR QUICKLY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... CDFNT MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN ON NW WINDS. A SECOND DRY FRONT SWINGS THROUGH BY SUNDAY. WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE REFRESHING. && .AVIATION... CONDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING AT THE TAF SITES SUCH THAT NOW MOST ARE VFR OR MVFR FOR CIGS. EXPECT CONDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. SHWRS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DVLP BUT SHOULD INCRS IN COVERAGE THIS AFTN AS THE ATMOS CONTS TO DE-STABILIZE. WE EXPECT SHWRS WILL CONT WELL INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT AS RMNTS OF KATRINA MOVE CLOSER. SFC WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCRG FROM THE SOUTH. CIGS WILL LIKELY GO DOWN TO IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT BUT VSBYS SHOULD BE LESS RESTRICTIVE...GENLY MVFR. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL PASS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...WIND GUSTS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY THURSDAY AS KATRINA MOVES AWAY. NO OTHER PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... FFG HAS NUDGED UPWD AGN AS ALL COUNTIES ARE AOA 3"/HR. HVYST PCPN PTNL FROM KATRINA SHLD OCR TUE/TUE NGT AS HER MOISTURE GETS INGESTED INTO THE BROAD SRLY FLOW. WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2"...AT LEAST LOCALIZED AMTS TO 4" RMN WITHIN THE REALM OF PTNL. GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN OF LATE IF ANY FLDG DOES IT OCR...IT WOULD BE MORE OF A SMALLER STREAM CONCERN AND NOT A MAIN STEM ONE. THE EMPHASIS FOR HVYR PCN WITH THE LATEST MDL RUNS RMNS CLSR TO THE JET OVR CANADA AND NEW ENG AND THUS OVR OUR NRN ZONES. WE WILL CONT TO ISSUE THE SPS ABT THE HVY RAIN PTNL. && .MISCELLANEOUS... WAY BACK WHEN ANALUGS ARE US COMPARED THE APR/MAY TEMP COUPLET AND SAW HOW THE ENSUING SUMMERS WERE. WELL THIS BUSTED BIGTIME AS THIS SUMMER WILL END (IN PHL) IN THE TOP 10 AND MUCH WARMER THAN ANY OF THE PREV ANALOG YEARS. WE/LL PBLY GET MORE MID SHIFTS BECAUSE OF THIS AND WE WON/T QUIT OUR DAY JOB.. YEAR JUN JUL AUG AVG TEMP TOTAL PCPN 1878 67.4 77.6 73.9 73.0 11.84 1891 71.8 71.9 74.3 72.7 11.38 1915 69.6 76.0 73.1 72.9 15.31 1925 78.0 76.2 74.8 76.3 8.16 1938 71.3 77.2 78.4 75.6 20.68 1945 71.5 76.0 74.1 73.9 16.38 1952 74.7 80.1 75.2 76.7 11.95 1954 72.9 77.9 73.5 74.8 8.69 1958 67.8 77.4 73.4 72.9 17.31 1960 70.6 73.3 74.5 72.8 9.42 1968 71.2 77.1 77.8 75.4 9.13 AVG 71.5 76.4 74.8 74.2 12.75 SUM 2005 SO FAR 74.8 78.9 79.6 77.8 10.16 1971-2000 NML 72.3 77.6 76.3 75.4 12.03 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ZONES ANZ450>455. $$ OVERVIEW/SHORT TERM/MESOSCALE DISC...GORSE AVIATION/MARINE...COPE HYDROLOGY/LONG TERM/MISCELLANEOUS...GIGI 785 FXUS64 KOHX 302027 AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 327 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...AT 300 PM THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WERE LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF BOWLING GREEN, KENTUCKY AND WERE CONTINUING TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE MID STATE, BUT HAD DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY FROM THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY. THE STRONG WINDS FROM LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER TODAY DOWNED TREES OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID STATE AND WINDS AT THE NASHVILLE AIRPORT GUSTED TO 40 MPH AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. WE CAN NOW LOOK FORWARD TO SOME MUCH MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER, AS THE "KATRINA TROUGH" SWEEPS TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER THIS EVENING...NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE ZFP THROUGH TUESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... NASHVILLE 68 86 66 89 / 40 10 10 10 CLARKSVILLE 66 87 64 86 / 40 10 10 10 CROSSVILLE 67 81 62 85 / 50 10 10 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: BEDFORD...BENTON...CANNON...CHEATHAM...CLAY...COFFEE...CUMBERLAND... DAVIDSON...DEKALB...DICKSON...FENTRESS...GILES...GRUNDY...HICKMAN... HOUSTON...HUMPHREYS...JACKSON...LAWRENCE...LEWIS...MACON...MARSHALL... MAURY...MONTGOMERY...OVERTON...PERRY...PICKETT...PUTNAM...ROBERTSON ...RUTHERFORD...SMITH...STEWART...SUMNER...TROUSDALE...VAN BUREN... WARREN...WAYNE...WHITE...WILLIAMSON...AND WILSON. && $$ 19 555 FXUS65 KTFX 302028 AFDTFX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 228 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED TO THE EAST AND A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE ZONES. CLEARING SKIES AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS DIP COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA MAY SEE NEAR RECORD LOWS. THE AIRMASS BEGINS ANOTHER WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY...AND WITH CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS THE FORECASTS REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE ZONES ON THURSDAY AND THE FLOW ALOFT SWITCHES TO THE SOUTHWEST. WEAK INSTABILITY RETURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY AND CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. ZELZER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. MOISTURE AND ANY TYPE OF FORCING IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AN UPPER TROF BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS PERIOD DETRACT FROM FORECAST CONFIDENCE. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE AND A COMPROMISE SOLUTION OF A WEAK...RELATIVELY DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING...COOLING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR...OR A LITTLE BELOW...SEASONAL AVERAGES. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES. EK && .AVIATION... UPDATED 1730Z. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON HAS BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE STATE. EXPECT MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THE EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z. SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE TROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THOMSON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 43 76 47 81 / 10 0 0 0 CTB 43 72 45 78 / 10 0 0 10 HLN 42 77 47 82 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 34 75 40 82 / 10 0 0 0 WEY 30 65 30 73 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 34 75 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 45 76 47 83 / 10 0 0 10 LWT 41 73 43 79 / 10 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS 929 FXUS64 KLIX 302029 AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY WITH DRIER AIR PUSHING SE'WARD OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. ALOFT MID TO UPPER TROF WAS DEPICTED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS PROGGED TO LIFT N LATE THU THROUGH FRI. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS SHOW THIS FEATURE LIFTING N'WARD BY LATE THU WITH REMNANT SHEAR AXIS STRETCHING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. WITH A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW COMBINED DEWPTS IN THE 60S THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK BELIEVE THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL REMAIN MAINLY ISOLATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MODELS DEPICTED A GENERAL FLOW FROM NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PD BELIEVE WE COULD SEE A LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND THUNDERSTORM MAINLY NEAR COAST EACH DAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY HUMIDITIES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR CLEANUP OPERATIONS. && .MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT AS KATRINA MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND A TRAILING WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA. EXPECTING THE TROUGH TO STALL NEAR THE LA-MS COASTS...LIKELY RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND HELPS PUSH THE WEAK TROUGH WELL OFFSHORE. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND. && SPECIAL NOTICE TO MEDIA AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT/STORM SPOTTERS...ALL AGENCIES IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI THAT NEED TO CONVEY CRITICAL INFORMATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS ARE ASKED TO PLEASE CONTACT NWS MOBILE AT 251-633-2471...OR 251-633-0921. COMMUNICATIONS REMAIN OUT OF SERVICE AT NWS NEW ORLEANS. ALL WATCH...WARNING AND FORECAST INFORMATION IS BEING GENERATED AND SENT FROM NWS MOBILE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 73 95 71 92 / 10 10 10 10 BTR 73 95 72 93 / 10 10 10 10 MSY 79 94 77 91 / 10 10 10 10 GPT 75 93 75 90 / 10 10 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ 330 FXUS63 KIWX 302029 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 330 PM EST TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE... WAVE MODEL YIELDS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAVES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTN...SO WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM... WATER VAPOR SHOWING REMNANTS OF KATRINA SHEARING QUICKLY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST. DEFORMATION TYPE PCPN ON NORTHWEST SIDE OF CIRCULATION AFFECTING SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PCPN HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE NORTHWEST AS IT ENCOUNTERS MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE. CIRCULATION CENTER LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG TRACK OF BEST HEIGHT FALLS HAS FINALLY ALLOWED EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD TO BEGIN INCHING NORTHWEST AGAIN. EXPECT SOME WESTWARD EXPANSION AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST THIS EVENING BEFORE BACK EDGE BEGINS TO PIVOT EAST. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL CONTINUES IN FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE RADAR RETURNS HAVE SHOWN INCREASE REFLECTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN BUT SPREAD OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 15 HOURS. THEREFORE EXPECT RUNOFF TO BE HANDLED FAIRLY WELL WITH ONLY SOME LOCALIZED PROBLEMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH NOWCASTS AND ESF HIGHLIGHTING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BUT NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. AS ALWAYS...WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING FOR ANY CHANGES. HAVE LEFT A SHARP CUTOFF TO WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN IN GRIDS. THIS LEAVES EXTREME NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA DRY OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED TREND OF ENDING PCPN FROM WEST TO EAST BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO END AS QUICK AS HPC QPF FORECAST. HAVE HELD ONTO POPS ALL NIGHT NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHEAST INDIANA...THEN END PCPN ALL TOGETHER IN THE FAR NORTHEAST WED MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM WEST IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM. SKY COVER SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...HOWEVER...SCT-BKN CU EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS WHERE LESS SUBSIDENCE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAIN ALONG WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LONG TERM... LOW PRESSURE DEPICTED WELL ON WATER VAPOR ALONG H50 TROF OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BITTERROOT RANGE IN THE PAC NW. MODELS CONTINUE TO TRANSFER MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PEAK HEATING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG DIGGING OF H50 TROF OVER THE MIDWEST ON WED. MODELS SHOW MORE AMPLIFICATION AND AN INCREASE IN 85-70H RH DURING THU AM OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH PASSAGE OF H50 TROF. CANADIAN MODEL DAMPENS THE H50 TROF CONSIDERABLY BY 12Z THU BEFORE MOVING IT INTO THE CWA. DUE TO LACK OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND TIMING OF DAY AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO LEFT CWA DRY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND DOMINATES THE AREA AS RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD TROF SETTING UP OVER PAC NW. SLOW MODERATING TEMPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS SUN/MON AM...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NW CWA. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE KBEH FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S. STRONG RIDGE OVER EASTERN HALF OF US STARTS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL CONUS. SYSTEM WILL TAKE TIME TO IMPEDE RIDGE AS HIGH PRES HOLDS FIRM OVER NEW ENGL. FEEL ATTM SYSTEM WILL NOT MOVE INTO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TILL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-LMZ046. && $$ SHORT TERM...LASHLEY LONG TERM...WAMSLEY 643 FXUS64 KMEG 302031 AFDMEG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 329 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 ...DISCUSSION... SOME GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALL THAT ARE LEFT OF KATRINA IN OUR AREA. KATRINA REMNANTS WILL BE IN NW PA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUITE A BIT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS WILL FILL INTO THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THEN DOMINATE OUR WEATHER SCENE ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVEN THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. NET RESULTS FROM THIS HIGH WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER. HIGHS IN THE 90S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 80S FRIDAY ON THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. $$ WER 687 FXUS64 KSJT 302032 AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 332 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ALOFT... THE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WITH A GRADUAL DRYING OF THE AIRMASS...SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE/SHEAR AXIS ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A NEARLY STEADY-STATE PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S. THE NAM AND GFS MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...DROPPING INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE WEAK AND DIFFUSE...AND SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ABILENE 68 95 68 94 / 0 0 0 0 SAN ANGELO 67 95 67 94 / 0 0 0 0 JUNCTION 67 95 67 94 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 110 FXUS64 KOUN 302033 AFDOUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 333 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... BUT ITS MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO CHANGE THE WIND DIRECTION. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM... BUT MOISTURE WILL BE SCARCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... BUT AT THIS TIME... COVERAGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE QUITE LOW. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT TRAVELS SOUTHEAST... AND LITTLE FURTHER EFFECT IS EXPECTED. MID AND UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS... RESULTING IN RATHER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DO SHOW A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN... BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 65 93 66 91 / 0 0 10 10 HOBART OK 65 94 65 91 / 0 0 10 10 WICHITA FALLS TX 67 97 68 95 / 0 0 10 10 GAGE OK 61 90 60 89 / 0 0 20 10 PONCA CITY OK 64 91 63 88 / 0 0 20 10 DURANT OK 68 95 69 95 / 0 0 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 09/23 652 FXUS66 KSGX 302034 AFDSGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN A LITTLE WITH LOW CLOUDS A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND. THE TROUGH DEEPENS A BIT MORE NEXT TUESDAY WITH A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... MARINE LAYER STILL RATHER SHALLOW AT ABOUT 1000 TO 1200 FEET. WEAK COASTAL EDDY CLOCKED IN EARLY THIS MORNING. MESO ETA CONTINUES WEAK EDDY DURING THE MORNINGS THROUGH THU. MARINE LAYER EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1500 TO 1800 FEET WED. WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THICKNESS DROPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THU WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH MON...THEN DROPS A BIT MORE TUE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT INCREASES SLIGHTLY ON SAT BUT THICKNESS REMAINS THE SAME. CROSS SECTION SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVER THROUGH WED BUT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL AMOUNT TO ANYTHING. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS. OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE NORTH LOOKING A BIT STRONGER AND MAY KEEP STRATUS OUT OF ORANGE COUNTY TO SOME DEGREE. 700 MB WINDS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST AND THEN GO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THU. GFS SURFACE FORECAST SHOWS SOME BRIEF WEAK NORTH WINDS IN THE FAR NORTH PART OF OUR CWA WED MORNING...OTHERWISE NORTHEAST WINDS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. && .AVIATION...A WEAK EDDY AND STRONG INVERSION WILL HELP BRING BACK THE CLOUDS THIS EVE PROBABLY MOVING ASHORE BETWEEN 04-08Z AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER. CIGS AROUND 200-500 FEET AND VISBYS AROUND 2SM...BUT DOWN TO 1/4 MILE LOWER ON COASTAL MESAS AND HILLS. CLEARING AT THE COASTAL TAFS AROUND 16-17Z WED MORNING. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...WHITLOW AVIATION...MM $$ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO IS ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO 801 FXUS65 KSLC 302033 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 233 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MID WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CHEYENNE TO WEST OF GRAND JUNCTION TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL SCRAPE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF UTAH AND COLORADO THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF SLC AND GJT FORECAST AREAS AND WITH LOSS OF HEATING...EVEN CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH REGION. WITH AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RETURN FLOW BRINGS SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO REGION. COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT HIGHEST POPS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES MOISTURE INTO REGION. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL WORK ACROSS REGION...BUT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN. GIVEN MOISTURE TRAJECTORIES...HIGHEST POPS WILL DEFINITELY BE FOCUSED OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO WHERE BY SATURDAY...EXPECT SOME INSTABILITY WITH CAPES TO 400 AND LI VALUES TO MINUS 2. WITH MOISTURE HANGING AROUND ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CHANCE POPS STILL WARRANTED IN TERRAIN AREAS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING ELSEWHERE. && .FIRE WEATHER...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS STILL ONGOING BOTH AHEAD OF AND IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...WITH EXTREMELY LOW RH VALUES...SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS IN MANY LOCATIONS. RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR SOUTHEAST HALF OF UTAH AND FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN WESTERN COLORADO. && .AVIATION...NONE. SEE SLCTAFSLC. && .SLC/GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FOR ZONES 201 AND 203 UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FOR FIRE WX ZONES 428>432-438-440>449. WY...NONE. && $$ BARJENBRUCH 210 FXUS64 KHUN 302035 AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 335 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... A CENTER OF CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA CONTINUED TO SPIN EAST OF BOWLING GREEN...AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A CANOPY OF EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WAS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP SOUTH OF A DYERSBURG...SAVANNAH...BIRMINGHAM....AND ANNISTON LINE. SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. 3 PM TEMPS UNDER GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 70S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 70S NW ALABAMA. A BIG SHORT TIME ISSUE ARE THE WINDS. MSAS INDICATED A NEARLY 6 MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO KATRINA'S REMAINS WHICH HELPED TO PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE VALLEY. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING... BEFORE WINDS DROP OFF TO THE 10-15 MPH OVERNIGHT. THUS WE HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY UNTIL 8 PM CENTRAL TIME. OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. NE ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENN ARE MORE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN. MODEL STABILITIES DO NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE TO MUCH T-STORM DEVELOPMENT... WITH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR WEDNESDAY...A DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK IN TO THE 80S...LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 ACROSS PARTS OF NW ALABAMA. LIGHTER WINDS...LONGER LATE SUMMER NIGHTS...AND A STILL WET GROUND FROM THE RECENT RAINS MEANS FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE FROM THE NGM/GFS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON IT YET. IS SOMETHING FOR FUTURE SHIFTS TO CONTEMPLATE...AS DID NOT PUT FOG IN THE GRIDS THIS ISSUANCE. NOT MANY CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED. THE GFS AND OTHER LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THUS SEASONALLY WARM EARLY SEPT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE 80S...AND NIGHT TIME LOWS COOLING INTO THE 60S. SOME SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THOSE WIND SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT THIS UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... HUNTSVILLE 70 87 66 89 / 20 10 0 0 SHOALS 69 88 64 90 / 20 10 0 0 CULLMAN 70 87 65 90 / 20 10 0 0 FAYETTEVILLE 67 85 65 88 / 30 10 0 0 FORT PAYNE 69 85 65 87 / 20 10 0 0 && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COLBERT...CULLMAN...DE KALB...FRANKLIN AL...JACKSON... LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MARSHALL... AND MORGAN. TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: FRANKLIN TN...LINCOLN...AND MOORE. && $$ BOYD 379 FXUS65 KABQ 302035 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 235 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...DAYTIME HEATING IS PRODUCING A CU FIELD OVER THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SMALLER FIELDS WHERE OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. MOVEMENT OF THE CU WAS TO THE SOUTHEAST PROFILERS SHOW A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST OVER NM. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT OVER THE CWA. UPPER LVL TROF IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN WY AND NORTHERN CO AND MODELS ARE JUST SLIGHTLY SLOW WITH THIS FEATURE. LEE SIDE TROF DEVELOPED OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND EXTENDS INTO NORTHEAST NM. FRONT IS PROGGED TO ENTER NORTHEAST NM EARLY WED MORNING AND THEN SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THRU THE DAY. UPPER LVL SUPPORT REMAINS NORTH AND EAST SO THIS SOLN SEEMS REASONABLE. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS. THE HIGH STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WITH THE AXIS SOMEWHERE OVER NM. THIS IS WERE THE MODELS START TO DIFFER. GFS SLIDES THE AXIS TO THE EAST FARTHER THAN THE DGEX AND LEAVES AN OPENING FOR A MONSOONAL BURST OF MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE DGEX POSITION OF THE RIDGE WOULD SHUNT MORE OF THE MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN AZ. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCHC FOR NOW WITH AN EYE ON THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS AND HOW THE POSITION OF THE HIGH IS HANDLED. ANOTHER TROF MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL HELP FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND HINTS AT A SFC FRONT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 55 91 56 86 / 0 0 0 10 GALLUP.......................... 47 87 48 84 / 0 0 0 10 GRANTS.......................... 48 87 50 83 / 0 0 10 10 GLENWOOD........................ 53 93 57 92 / 0 0 0 10 CHAMA........................... 41 78 41 74 / 0 10 20 20 LOS ALAMOS...................... 51 79 50 76 / 0 0 20 10 RED RIVER....................... 38 72 37 69 / 0 20 20 20 TAOS............................ 45 80 47 76 / 0 10 20 20 SANTA FE........................ 52 82 51 79 / 0 0 20 10 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 54 83 53 80 / 0 0 20 10 ESPANOLA........................ 52 86 51 83 / 0 0 20 10 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 88 62 84 / 0 0 10 10 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 61 89 58 85 / 0 0 10 10 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 62 87 59 84 / 0 0 10 10 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 63 89 61 85 / 0 0 10 10 SOCORRO......................... 62 90 60 87 / 0 0 10 10 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 54 81 53 78 / 0 10 20 20 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 49 84 48 81 / 0 10 20 20 CARRIZOZO....................... 58 88 56 86 / 0 0 10 10 RUIDOSO......................... 53 81 49 83 / 0 10 10 10 RATON........................... 48 76 46 79 / 0 10 20 20 LAS VEGAS....................... 50 77 47 77 / 0 10 20 20 ROY............................. 56 77 52 79 / 0 10 20 20 CLAYTON......................... 58 74 53 81 / 0 10 20 20 SANTA ROSA...................... 58 86 54 84 / 0 10 20 10 TUCUMCARI....................... 62 85 58 86 / 0 10 20 10 FORT SUMNER..................... 61 86 58 87 / 0 0 10 10 CLOVIS.......................... 61 85 59 86 / 0 0 10 10 PORTALES........................ 60 86 58 87 / 0 0 10 10 ROSWELL......................... 65 92 64 91 / 0 0 10 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 23 849 FXUS61 KALY 302036 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 435 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS... THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE MAP IS THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE KATRINA WHICH HAD MOVED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTH OF A 500 HPA CLOSED LOW. THERE WAS A DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE NORMAL 500 HPA HIGHS IN THE OCEAN WEST OF BAJA AND EAST OF FLORIDA. .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... NCEP TRACK OF LOW FROM KATRINA APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS TRACKS BUT MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFS. THE LOW WILL BE CENTERED NEAR CINCINNATI OHIO THIS EVENING... NEAR CLEVELAND OHIO WEDNESDAY MORNING...JUST NORTH OF VERMONT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND NORTHEAST OF MONTREAL BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR ECHOES WITH POPS GOING CATEGORICAL OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY...WHICH FITS IN WITH OUR NEIGHBORS...WITH CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRECIP FROM THE EVENT OVER WITH 6AM WITH SOME RESIDUAL FOG. THE 12Z GFS RUN ALSO CLEARED MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS OUT OF THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK AS WELL. THE BIG QUESTION OF THE DAY IS HOS MUCH SUNSHINE WE WILL GET WEDNESDAY AS THE CIRCULATION FROM THE REMAINS OF KATRINA BRINGS IN A FLOW OF EXTREMELY MOIST AIR FROM OFF THE OCEAN...WITH FLOW OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES STARTING MIDMORNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE EMPHASIZED RAIN WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER BY LATE MORNING AND THUNDER LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE GFS PUTS THE LOW WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF QUEBEC CITY WITH THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP MOSTLY NORTH AND EAST OF IT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER THIS WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A FLOW OF COOL AND MOIST AIR FROM NORTHEASTERN CANADA MAY BRING SOME CLOUDINESS TO OUR NORTHERMOST ZONES SATURDAY WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...WILL PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BUT LEAVE THE BULK OF OUR AREA DRY. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY THE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE THREAT OF PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO STAY OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...TOUGH DAY WITH CEILINGS TODAY (VFR-MVFR-IFR). CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS STEADY TROPICAL RAIN OVERSPREAD AREA. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH VERY HEAVY RAINS AT TIMES. IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE. LIGHT SE WINDS WILL BECOME S AND INCREASE BECOMING GUSTY IN WARM SECTOR. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR. CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MORE SUN WE GET BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE IN TROPICAL AIRMASS. && .HYDROLOGY...PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) 1.90 INCHES ON 12Z/ALB SOUNDING AND WILL INCREASE. 2+ INCH PWS. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS AMOUNTING TO 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. PRECIPITABLE WATER 2+ INCHES. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ENDING THE STEADY RAINS. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AREA WILL STILL BE IN A TROPICAL AIRMASS SO THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. EVEN THOUGH RESERVOIR AND STREAM CHANNEL STORAGE IS HIGH DUE TO THE RECENT DRY WEATHER. THE THREAT FOR SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING EXISTS....THUS THE FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL RISE...BUT ONLY TO HALF TO THREE QUARTER BANKFULL. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLOOD WATCH ALY ZONES 7PM EDT TODAY THROUGH 7AM THURSDAY MA...FLOOD WATCH ALY ZONES 7PM EDT TODAY THROUGH 7AM THURSDAY NY...FLOOD WATCH ALY ZONES 7PM EDT TODAY THROUGH 7AM THURSDAY VT...FLOOD WATCH ALY ZONES 7PM EDT TODAY THROUGH 7AM THURSDAY && $$ SHORT TERM...RCK LONG TERM...RCK AVIATION...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA 425 FXUS65 KLKN 302037 AFDLKN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV 140 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NEAR RECORD LOWS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...U/L TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT THE WINDY CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA YESTERDAY...HAS LIFTED INTO WYOMING AND MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE U/L TROUGH BRINGING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 75 TODAY. AT 1PM PDT...THE ELKO OFFICE HAS YET TO REACH 70 DEGREES. BELIEVE THIS IS GOOD SET UP FOR NEAR RECORD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND COOL AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE... RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MAXIMIZED TONIGHT FOR TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS COLD MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THURSDAY AS U/L RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND INTO UTAH. TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GFS AND ECMWF TAKE MIDLEVEL MOISTURE A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS HAVE SHOWN. OTHERWISE...PRETTY QUIET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS SHOWS ELONGATED U/L TROUGH MOVING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ECMWF STILL SHOWING LARGE RIDGE. EITHER WAY...LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TRUDEL && .AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER EXPECTED CONDITIONS. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE && $$ 426 FXUS65 KLKN 302037 AFDLKN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV 140 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NEAR RECORD LOWS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...U/L TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT THE WINDY CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA YESTERDAY...HAS LIFTED INTO WYOMING AND MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE U/L TROUGH BRINGING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 75 TODAY. AT 1PM PDT...THE ELKO OFFICE HAS YET TO REACH 70 DEGREES. BELIEVE THIS IS GOOD SET UP FOR NEAR RECORD LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND COOL AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE... RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MAXIMIZED TONIGHT FOR TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS COLD MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THURSDAY AS U/L RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND INTO UTAH. TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GFS AND ECMWF TAKE MIDLEVEL MOISTURE A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS HAVE SHOWN. OTHERWISE...PRETTY QUIET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS SHOWS ELONGATED U/L TROUGH MOVING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ECMWF STILL SHOWING LARGE RIDGE. EITHER WAY...LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER EXPECTED CONDITIONS. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE && $$ TRUDEL 022 FXUS65 KPUB 302040 AFDPUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 240 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY) ...STRONG COLD FRONT AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER THE PLAINS... SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR OVER SE COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH JUST SOME ISOLD CU BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE MTNS. TEMP HAS ALREADY RISEN TO 97 DEGREES AT KPUB BUT UNLIKELY TO BREAK RECORD OF 102 FOR TODAY. ETA12 CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD LIGHT QPF OVER THE MTNS AND N ZONES THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING THE FRONT INTO THE SE PLAINS WED MORNING. DESPITE MODEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THIS DOES NOT SEEM TOO FAR-FETCHED GIVEN THE STRONG OROGRAPHIC WIND FLOW AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. GFS...MM5 AND ENSEMBLES ARE COMPLETELY DRY HOWEVER. CURRENT CLOUD COVER DOES NOT SEEM TOO EXTENSIVE EITHER...EVEN OVER WYOMING. WILL LEAVE CURRENT ISOLD POPS BUT TEMPER OVER THE N ZONES AND ELEVATED REGIONS. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...AND FRONT WONT BE IN TIL LATER TONIGHT...SO WE HAVE NOT PUT OUT ANY UNSCHEDULED FIRE WX PRODS. MAIN CONCERN IN FCST IS GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS WINDSPDS OF AROUND 35 MPH TONIGHT FOR KCOS AND KPUB...AND THIS LOOKS ON TARGET GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRESSURE GRADIENT. HAVE EMPHASIZED STRONG SFC WINDS IN THE TWEBS AND TAFS FOR TONIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO BACA AND LAS ANIMAS BY WED MORNING. TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE 15-20 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAYS HIGHS. ONLY REAL CHANGE TO WED TEMP GRIDS WAS TO DROP MTN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AM EXPECTING A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS TOMORROW...SO CUT BACK POPS TO ISOLD OVER THE WESTERN MTNS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. ROSE .LONG TERM... (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH LATE MONSOON MOISTURE... FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THE MONSOON PLUME WILL TAKE RESIDENCE OVER COLORADO ONE MORE TIME FOR DAILY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. IF MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST HOLDS TRUE...COULD SEE BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AVERAGE OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN TREND TO BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. LW && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 813 FXUS63 KLBF 302041 AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 323 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS FA TONIGHT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS WHAT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING WITH RATHER IMPRESSIVE 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF 5 TO 7 MB AND H85 WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KTS. WINDS WILL REACH INTO THE WINDY CATEGORY FOR UP TO 3 HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. COOLER AIR WILL THEN FILTER SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY NOTICEABLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S WITH A NORTH WIND 15 TO 25 MPH. WINDS TO DECOUPLE QUICKLY BY SUNSET. CLEAR SKIES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE COOLEST READINGS OF THE SEASON. SOME LOWER 40S EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND PLATTE VALLEY WITH OTHERWISE MID/UPPER 40S PREVAILING. DRY WITH A WARMING TREND THU/FRIDAY AS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S. FOR THE EXTENDED RIDGING BECOMES AMPLIFIED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST. BY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY AND ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD TRIGGER A FEW STORMS. A FRONT DROPS THROUGH MONDAY AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. WILL RUN A 20 PERCENT CHANCE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. && LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ KAR 759 FXUS65 KMSO 302043 AFDMSO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT 243 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...THE EXITING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW (TO THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE BUTTE) WILL FINISH CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THIS EVENING. ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END BY DUSK. OROGRAPHIC LIFT COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ENOUGH TO CREATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DIVIDE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW RELAXING A BIT TOMORROW...THE BREEZY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE UNDER A ZONAL FLOW. ON THURSDAY...A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD INTRODUCE ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO CREATE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST...USHERING IN WARMER AIR. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL SKIRT THE FAR NORTH UNDER THIS PATTERN...AND COULD SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. BIGGER CHANGE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES. NORTHWEST MONTANA SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS...BUT OTHERWISE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE. WILL SEE A COOL DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE SYSTEM...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE DIVIDE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES ALONG THE MOUNTAIN TOPS AND PEAKS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH EVENING. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. ID...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HENRY LONG TERM...WHITMORE AVIATION...HENRY 285 FXUS63 KLSX 302043 AFDLSX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 345 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... KATRINAS GLANCING BLOW TO SE SECTIONS OF FA HAS BEEN WINDING DOWN SINCE 18Z...AND IT APRS THAT RAIN SHIELD WL EXIT FAR E COUNTIES IN THE 23-00Z TIME FRAME. CLRG SHUD THEN WORK ACR AREA DURING THE OVRNGT HRS AS CRCLN CNTR WORKS INTO OHIO VLY. LTST MDL TRENDS RMN IN VRY GD AGREEMENT WITH HNDLG OF NXT SHTWV AND ASSOC CDFNT. WITH THIS SYS FOLLOWING FAST ON THE HEELS OF KATRINA DON'T THINK IT WL HV TOO MUCH MSTR TO WORK WITH. HWVR...EACH GFS AND NAM RUN HINTS THAT SYS MAY BRING JUST ENUF MSTR WITH IT TO GENERATE SM LGT PCPN...AND 12Z 850 DATA DID SHOW A BIT OF MSTR HAS WORKED AHD OF SYS OVR W HI PLAINS. WE ALREADY HV LO POPS GOING FOR WED NGT...AND WL CONT THIS THINKING AND SPREAD IT A BIT FURTHER S AND E...GENLY COVERING AREAS ALG-N OF I-70. AFT THIS SYS PASSES...RMNDR OF SHORT RANGE AND MEDIUM RANGE LKS TO BE TRANQUIL AS UPR RDG GRDLY BUILDS BACK ACR PLAINS. AS MENTIONED YSTDA...THE BIGGEST WRMUP WITH THIS PTRN SHIFT WL BE ACR THE PLAINS...WHILE SFC RDG THAT TAKES UP TEMPORARY RESIDENCE OVR MID MSVLY MAKES FOR MILD TEMPS AND BLOCKS THE RETURN OF ANY SGFNT MSTR. WL CONT WITH PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS...WHICH APR TO HV A GD HNDL ON UPCOMING WX AND DOVETAILS NICELY WITH LATEST MOS GUID. I DID TRY TO "THINK A BIT COOL" FOR MINS OVR SE AREAS FRI-TUE. SYNOPTIC PTRN IS ONE THAT FAVORS GD RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THESE AREAS...SCPLY IN THE E 0ZARKS...AND IS ONE WHERE MOS TYPICALLY HAS A BIT OF A WRM BIAS. && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ TRUETT 476 FXUS65 KBYZ 302044 AFDBYZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 244 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU... A WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF TRANSITS THE AREA. A 40 MILE WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS IS ACCOMPANYING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROF THROUGH THE AREA. IN ADDITION A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH 40KT WINDS ALOFT ARE PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR IS LURKING JUST SOUTH OF MONTANA AND LOOKS POISED TO WRAP INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHICH SHOULD SHIFT THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE HIGHER TODAY THAN EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD ENABLE CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND LONGER THIS EVENING SO HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY...BUT STILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MORNING AS THE TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST. FREEZING LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 7 AND 8 KFT OVERNIGHT AND WITH CLEARING SKIES SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 20S BY MORNING. EXPECT A MIX OF UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY PLEASANT FOR LATE SUMMER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE WEST TOMORROW AND WITH SUNNY SKIES ENABLING GOOD MIXING WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. WITH A BIT OF DOWNSLOPE WARMING EXPECT A QUICK WARM UP WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S. A CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT IN STORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT. FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ALLOWING STILL WARMER AIR TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. ANOTHER CLEAR CALM NIGHT IS ON TAP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS. .LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE... ALL MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY TO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST BY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN AMPLIFIED SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SWING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY. GFS A BIT SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE BY SUNDAY EVENING...BUT SIMILAR ENOUGH TO SUGGEST A COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE TROUGH LOOKS VERY PROGRESSIVE AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL REMAIN IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CATEGORY. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS TEMPERATURES WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE STARTING COOLING TREND ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH ON SUNDAY AND MORE SUBSTANTIALLY ON MONDAY. FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. MEIER && .AVIATION... AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY FROM LWT-BIL-SHR WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA BY 9 PM MDT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS AS LOW AS 2500 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 4 MILES. STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 10 PM MDT. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW MORNING. CHAMBERS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 048/077 052/082 053/086 055/088 054/085 053/077 050/076 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T 00/B LVM 037/077 041/081 045/086 047/087 048/084 047/079 044/078 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/B 12/T 10/B HDN 048/077 047/086 049/090 051/092 051/089 050/078 046/077 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T 00/B MLS 048/079 052/084 053/089 055/093 057/088 055/079 050/078 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T 00/B 4BQ 048/078 048/085 052/090 053/092 056/089 056/079 048/078 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T 00/B BHK 045/074 044/083 051/086 053/090 054/084 053/077 048/076 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T 00/B SHR 041/079 041/083 046/088 049/088 051/086 050/077 046/076 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T 00/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS 752 FXUS65 KBOI 302051 AFDBOI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID 251 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...COOL UPPER TROUGH NOW EXITING EAST BUT TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL. BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL COME IN OFF PACIFIC TUESDAY AND STAY WITH US THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING CLEAR AND WARMER WX. MAX TEMPS WILL INCREASE 5-7 DEGS DAILY THROUGH THURSDAY ...THU REACHING THE 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UP TO THE MID 90S IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. MIN TEMPS WILL RISE MORE SLOWLY...GENERALLY 2-4 DEGS EACH NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT WITH LESS SPREAD THAN YESTERDAY. THE TROUGH COMING THROUGH ON SUNDAY IS STILL PORTRAYED AS SHALLOW AND PROGRESSIVE SO WE CANT EXPECT MUCH WEATHER OR COOLING. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION FROM THE DGEX AND ECMWF AS WELL AS GFS 00Z AND 06Z OPERATIONAL RUNS BUT THE 12Z GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND SLOWER...AND THE CANADIAN AND NOGAPS ARE QUITE A BIT DEEPER. WE ARE STAYING WITH THE SHALLOWER MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS AT LEAST FOR NOW. POPS ARE UNDER 10 PERCENT EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY COOLING TO NORMAL SUNDAY THEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT NORTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MODERATE FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST DECREASING TO LIGHT AFTER 00Z. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BOISE SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....JT AVIATION.....JT 770 FXUS65 KBOI 302053 CCA AFDBOI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID 251 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...COOL UPPER TROUGH NOW EXITING EAST BUT TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL. BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL COME IN OFF PACIFIC TUESDAY AND STAY WITH US THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING CLEAR AND WARMER WX. MAX TEMPS WILL INCREASE 5-7 DEGS DAILY THROUGH FRIDAY ...FRI REACHING THE 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UP TO THE MID 90S IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. MIN TEMPS WILL RISE MORE SLOWLY...GENERALLY 2-4 DEGS EACH NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT WITH LESS SPREAD THAN YESTERDAY. THE TROUGH COMING THROUGH ON SUNDAY IS STILL PORTRAYED AS SHALLOW AND PROGRESSIVE SO WE CANT EXPECT MUCH WEATHER OR COOLING. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION FROM THE DGEX AND ECMWF AS WELL AS GFS 00Z AND 06Z OPERATIONAL RUNS BUT THE 12Z GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND SLOWER...AND THE CANADIAN AND NOGAPS ARE QUITE A BIT DEEPER. WE ARE STAYING WITH THE SHALLOWER MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS AT LEAST FOR NOW. POPS ARE UNDER 10 PERCENT EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY COOLING TO NORMAL SUNDAY THEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT NORTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MODERATE FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST DECREASING TO LIGHT AFTER 00Z. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BOISE SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....JT AVIATION.....JT 453 FXUS63 KUNR 302054 AFDUNR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 255 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KHEI...TO EAST OF KRAP...TO NEAR KCDR...AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN WY. WINDS SLOWLY PICKING UP BEHIND FRONT...BUT STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN AREA OF STRONGER PRESSURE RISES MOVE ACROSS AND BETTER CAA REGIME TAKES SHAPE. UPPER LEVEL WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MT AND NORTHERN WY WITH AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THESE AREAS. NOT SURE MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT HERE...BUT STILL THINKING THAT SOME ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION COULD GET GOING...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE HILLS...BY EVENING AS TROF GETS CLOSER AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...EXPECT WINDS TO KEEP INCREASING. WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR AREAS CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN IT...BUT TIME FRAME FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS TAKE SHAPE...THE ADVISORY MAY EVEN NEED TO BE EXTENDED A LITTLE BIT TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE HILLS...ESPECIALLY AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS CATCH UP WITH COLD FRONT. CAPES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL SD THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AROUND 06Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER....BUT STILL REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SD PLAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT AND LOW LEVEL JET LINGERS. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME FAIR WX CU POPPING UP. NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT AFTER WEDNESDAY. ZONAL FLOW AND THEN SOME WEAK RIDGING LATER IN THE WEEK WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. AFTER A SEASONABLY WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS. EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. LAST FEW RUNS OF GFS HAS BEEN PUSHING UPPER TROF INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEREFORE DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY. && .AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS AT KRAP AND KGCC WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEHIND COLD FRONT WHICH HAS NOW PUSHED INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WILL WOULD AFFECT ALL TWEB RTES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW. && .UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING... WY...NONE. && $$ 137 FXUS65 KREV 302053 AFDREV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV 230 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM... A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS HAS SPREAD INTO NRN NV IN WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN ROCKIES TODAY. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE 40S OVER WRN NV VALLEYS TO UPPER 20S TO MID 30S IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS. EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS SIERRA ZONES TODAY AS AROUND MINUS 7 MB SAC-RNO SFC GRADIENT DEVELOPED. SFC THERMAL TROUGH FORECAST TO EXPAND FURTHER EWD OVER NV ON WED AND THU ALLOWING WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH ANTECEDANT CONDITIONS SO DRY AND STABLE DO NOT EXPECT MINOR VORT FEATURES OFF CENTRAL CA CST TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S RUNNING ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMAL WED THRU FRI. COULD SEE SOME AFTN HIGH BASED CU DEVELOPING ALONG SIERRA CREST FROM TAHOE SWD NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG SFC THERMAL TROUGH BUT SEE NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY OR FORCING TO DEVELOP DEEP CONVECTION. CYLKE .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FEW CHANGES OTHER THAN TO BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY (CLOSER TO NORMALS FOR HIGHS). NO RAIN EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PAC NW AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PER TELECONNECTIONS AND MODEL PREFERENCE MENTIONED AT HPC...I WENT WITH THE 00Z GFS/DGEX SOLUTION (WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE 00Z ECMWF AND UKMET FOR THE MAIN TROUGH). FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE 00Z GFS LEAVES SOME WEAK ENERGY BEHIND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE PATTERN AND SOMEWHAT BY THE UKMET... BUT NOT BY THE ECMWF. AS TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT TROUGHINESS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...I BIT ON THE 00Z GFS IDEA. THIS CAUSED ME TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESSES PROGGED BY THE GFS. SNYDER && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS...NO CONCERNS. HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY...SETTING UP A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TOWARDS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY. SNYDER && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NV...NONE. .CA...NONE. && $$ 704 FXUS65 KBOU 302056 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 130 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 ...SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY) CURRENTLY...QUIET AFTERNOON IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MAIN FOCUS IS ON COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. AT 1900 UTC...FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF KCPR AND KDGW ...MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 20 MPH. AT THE CURRENT SPEED...THE FRONT WILL REACH THE WYOMING/COLORADO BORDER AROUND 0100-0200 UTC. TONIGHT...WILL WAIT UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO MAKE FINAL ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. MODELS MAY BE TOO SLOW WITH THE INITIAL PUSH. ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL TO PUT SOME MODEST POPS ALONG IN THE EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT...AS FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK STABLE AND DRY...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. I DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO ADJUST DEW POINT LOWER. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST. ...LONG TERM... (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE PLAINS. ETA HAS CAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS. CURRENT GRIDS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MONSOON PLUME MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. I PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE CURRENT GRIDS ALONE FOR THIS PERIOD. GFS AND EC HAVE A TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY. I PUT IN SOME MODEST POPS ON TUESDAY...AND KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...READ FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2100 MDT FOR FIRE WX ZONES NONE 211>217..238>251. $$ WOLYN...WFO PUEBLO 869 FXUS65 KTWC 302056 AFDTWC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 200 PM MST TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO A MINIMUM AND KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. && .DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH TO SAY REGARDING WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. DEWPOINT HAVE STEADILY FALLEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...RANGING NOW FROM 40 AT KSAD TO THE LOWER 50S AT KOLS AND KTUS. 12Z KTUS SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A LITTLE MORE PW THAN THAT OF 24 HOURS PREVIOUS...BUT THE 0.04 INCREASE IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE BY ANY MEANS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR OVER NEARLY TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW CLOUDS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CWA...MAINLY IN COCHISE AND GREENLEE COUNTIES. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...DO NOT FORESEE ANY CONCERNS FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THEM. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE STATE TODAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE MOVES ON COME WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING ITS TREK EAST...ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO SE AZ. THIS WILL DRAW UP SOME MOISTURE...BUT THE BEST INCREASE DOES NOT COME UNTIL THE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...CURRENTLY PROGGED TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.THIS MOISTURE INFLUX WILL BE MAINLY A CONCERN FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA...AS LITTLE OF IT FILTERS FURTHER WEST THAN TUCSON. AS THE RIDGE MOVES ON...HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA DO NOT FALL THAT MUCH. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TAKING A GLANCE AT THE LONG RANGE MODELS...MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CWA FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD....DUE MAINLY TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. THIS WILL RETURN A CONSISTENT...ALBEIT LOW...CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST...AGAIN MAINLY FOR TUCSON AND POINTS EAST. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THESE THOUGHTS...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT KTUS. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SMR WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON 501 FXUS63 KICT 302108 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 408 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST CONCERNS... PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK... SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A CANADIAN/PACIFIC COLD FRONT SOUTH THRU THE AREA, EVENTUALLY BRINGING DRIER/MORE PLEASANT DEW POINTS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE GFS AND ETA CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, AND AS A RESULT GENERATE LITTLE, IF ANY, PRECIP. ANTECEDENT WET SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MAY ADD SOME UNACCOUNTED FOR MOISTURE/FUEL FOR CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS IT ENCOUNTERS FRONT, SO WILL CONTINUE INHERITED SLIGHT POPS. DRIER AIR TO THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THURSDAY, THOUGH TEMPS STILL RELATIVELY WARM/PLEASANT FOR START OF SEPTEMBER. UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO BUILD SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. BEFORE THIS OCCURS, ELEVATED MOISTURE ON RETURN FLOW WILL ENCOUNTER WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW CONSENSUS WAS TO KEEP FORECAST DRY, THOUGH THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST PERHAPS ENOUGH MOISTURE/LIFT FOR ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL KANSAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS WARM AND DRY WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO 90F. DARMOFAL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 65 88 61 85 / 5 20 20 10 HUTCHINSON 64 86 59 85 / 5 20 20 10 NEWTON 64 87 60 84 / 5 20 20 10 ELDORADO 64 88 61 84 / 5 20 20 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 64 91 63 87 / 5 20 20 20 RUSSELL 63 81 57 82 / 10 20 10 5 GREAT BEND 64 82 58 83 / 10 20 10 10 SALINA 66 86 59 85 / 10 20 20 5 MCPHERSON 64 86 59 85 / 10 20 20 10 COFFEYVILLE 62 92 63 86 / 5 20 20 20 CHANUTE 62 89 62 84 / 5 20 20 10 IOLA 62 89 61 84 / 5 20 20 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DARMOFAL 892 FXUS65 KPSR 302110 AFDPSR AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-310600- AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 210 PM MST TUE AUG 30 2005 SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THE RESULT. BY THURSDAY THE FLOW WILL BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. BY THURSDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX. WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER A LITTLE EACH DAY AND BECOME CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... AMS VERY DRY AND STABLE ACROSS THE PHX CWA TODAY...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE STATE...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. SATELLITE PIX REVEAL SOME FLAT CU OVER ERN ZONE 24...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SETTLE THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR S FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AS WLYS DIP TOWARDS OUR REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A VERY DRY FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE. AFTER THIS THE MODELS SWING A STRONG UPPER TROUGH INTO THE PAC NW REGION OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS IS FORECAST TO PUMP UP RIDGE TO OUR E AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR A MORE MOIST SELY FLOW TO DEVELOP. MODELS ARE VERY CONSERVATIVE WITH REGARDS TO MUCH OF ANY MOISTURE INCREASE MAKING IT TOO FAR W IN THE CWA. SO...JUST CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCES OVER MUCH OF ZONE 24 THRU THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT S OF THE BORDER NEXT FEW EVENINGS. THESE NEARLY UNFORECASTABLE EVENTS COULD GIVE A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF MOISTURE AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY WARRANT MOVING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP AREA FURTHER TO THE W. MEANWHILE...TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP ONLY VERY GRADUALLY NEXT FEW DAYS. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ARE NOT THAT FAR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER...WITH AMS ABNORMALLY DRY FOR LATE AUGUST...WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REALIZE THESE HOT TEMPS. MERCURIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW EXCESSIVE HEAT LEVELS TOMORROW...SO WILL ALLOW THIS EVENT TO END ON SCHEDULE THIS EVENING AT 03Z. && .AVIATION... DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS. TAFS ADEQUATELY DEPICT CURRENT AND EXPECTED WEATHER FOR PHX...IWA...YUM...BLH AND IPL. SEE TAFS PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM TODAY FOR THE DESERT AREAS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...YUMA...AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ZONES 20 THROUGH 23...AND 25 THROUGH 28. CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM TODAY FOR THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ZONE 31. && $$ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX ESTLE 818 FXUS65 KGGW 302112 AFDGGW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 310 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT...WHICH MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE WEST BY THURSDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL WARMING AS A SLIGHT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY IN GOOD SHAPE GENERALLY. HOWEVER MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS UP A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT FOR EASTERN COUNTIES DUE TO CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AT SUNSET TO COINCIDE WITH ENDING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. WEDNESDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR EXCEPT FOR FOR SOME CUMULUS WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AREA. THE AIR ELSEWHERE WILL BE DRY AND STABLE AS TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT BUT REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AGAIN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY STRENGTH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO COOL BELOW NORMAL INTO THE MID 40S. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AT SUNSET AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. THURSDAY...THICKNESS WILL INCREASE TO ALLOW FOR WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DIMINISHED MID LEVEL WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO GENERATE MODERATE SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. ST .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY... NO CHANGES TO LONG TERM AS FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT MODEL TREND. FLAT RIDGE DOMINATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TROF MOVING ACROSS MONTANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. EBERT PREVIOUS LONG TERM... BROAD AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE REGIONAL WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF WEEKEND BEFORE TRANSITION TO BROAD FLAT TROUGH LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE EARLY IN PERIOD...BUT ECMWF TENDING A BIT QUICKER MOVEMENT EAST ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE FAVORED SLOWER SOLUTION OF CANADIAN/GFS. GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWING GOOD INTERNAL CONSISTENCY OF COMPONENTS THROUGH THIS EARLIER PERIOD. BEGINNING SUNDAY...GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS MORE SCATTER BUT BULK OF COMPONENTS REMAIN SLOW TO MOVE TROUGH EAST. LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MODELS DIFFER ON DEPTH OF UPPER TROUGH. GFS AND CANADIAN FAVORED WITH SHALLOWER SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS BULK OF ENERGY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...THUS FAVORING DRY SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BASED LARGELY ON GFS ENSEMBLE...WHICH SHOWS LIMITED SCATTER IN TEMPERATURE RANGES OF COMPONENTS...WITH WARMING TREND PEAKING SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY COOLING MONDAY/TUESDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE IS DISPLACED INTO DAKOTAS. CURRENTLY EXPECT DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BECAUSE OF LITTLE SIGN OF MOISTURE IN MODELS AND CLIMATOLOGY OF SEPTEMBER...WHICH RAPIDLY DRIES OUT AFTER SUMMER CONVECTIVE SEASON ...AND NO SIGN OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED FROM LATE SEASON TROPICAL STORMS. && .AVIATION...NARROW BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY AHEAD OF THIS RAIN BAND BEFORE DROPPING OFF AFTER SUNSET. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS. RAE && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM TUESDAY. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW 974 FXUS65 KBOU 302116 CCA AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 314 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005...CORRECTED TYPO ...SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY) CURRENTLY...QUIET AFTERNOON IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MAIN FOCUS IS ON COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. AT 1900 UTC...FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF KCPR AND KDGW ...MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 20 MPH. AT THE CURRENT SPEED...THE FRONT WILL REACH THE WYOMING/COLORADO BORDER AROUND 0100-0200 UTC. TONIGHT...WILL WAIT UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO MAKE FINAL ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. MODELS MAY BE TOO SLOW WITH THE INITIAL PUSH. ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WILL TO PUT SOME MODEST POPS ALONG IN THE EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT...AS FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK STABLE AND DRY...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. I DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO ADJUST DEW POINT LOWER. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST. ...LONG TERM... (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE PLAINS. ETA HAS CAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS. CURRENT GRIDS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MONSOON PLUME MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. I PRETTY MUCH LEFT THE CURRENT GRIDS ALONE FOR THIS PERIOD. GFS AND EC HAVE A TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY. I PUT IN SOME MODEST POPS ON TUESDAY...AND KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2100 MDT FOR FIRE WX ZONES NONE 211>217..238>251. $$ WOLYN...WFO PUEBLO 782 FXUS66 KMTR 302124 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA 300 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...ITS A BEAUTIFUL AFTN ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH ABSOLUTELY NO CLOUDS ANYWHERE...NOT EVEN OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HAVENT HAD A DAY LIKE THIS THE ENTIRE MONTH AND WE MAY NOT HAVE HAD ONE SINCE JUNE. WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW MIDAFTN TEMPS WERE FAIRLY ISOTHERMAL OVER THE REGION WITH MID 80S TO LOWER 90S IN MOST PLACES. IT WAS A LITTLE COOLER AT THE BEACHES BUT EVEN THERE MOST SPOTS REACHED WELL INTO THE 70S...IT WAS EVEN 73 AT HALF MOON BAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AT 2 PM SHOWED THE OFFSHORE TREND... ESPECIALLY THE WMC-SFO GRADIENT WHICH REVERSED DRAMATICALLY FROM 7.7 MB ONSHORE AT THAT TIME YDA TO 8.3 MB OFFSHORE TDA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILT STRONGLY INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF YDAS UPPER TROF PASSAGE. THIS IS RIGHT ON SCHEDULE...USUALLY THESE STRONGER TROFS START MOVING THRU THE AREA ABOUT SEP 1. SFO-SAC WAS ONLY 1.1 ONSHORE AT 2 PM...DOWN FROM 2.8 YDA. HOWEVER...CHANGES ARE IN THE WORKS AND THIS IS ALREADY REFLECTED IN DECREASING N-S GRADIENTS. ACV-SFO WAS 4.9 MB N-S...RESPECTABLE BUT DOWN FROM 6.2 MB YDA. SFO- SMX WAS ALSO DOWN...TO 1.5 FROM 1.9. THE PT ARENA-PIEDRAS BLANCAS GRADIENT WAS ALSO DECREASING...IT WAS 1.9 MB N-S AT 1 PM COMPARED WITH 3.3 YDA. THE WEAKENING N-S GRADIENTS HERALD THE EVENTUAL END OF THE COASTAL WARM SPELL. WE SHOULD STILL HAVE CLEAR SKIES TNGT BUT THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COASTAL SEABREEZE WILL BE STRONGER AND EARLIER ON WED THAN TDA...RESULTING IN COOLING NEAR THE OCEAN. WITH THE AIR ALOFT ACTUALLY WARMING A LITTLE MORE...INLAND TEMPS SHOULD BE AS WARM OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TDA. THE ETA FORECASTS THE STRATUS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WED NIGHT. A COUPLE DAYS AGO THE MODEL WAS FORECASTING A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF STRATUS UP THE COAST BUT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE CRUD WILL SIMPLY DEVELOP WED NIGHT AND EDGE UP TO THE COAST IN THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR COOLING OVER THE ENTIRE DISTRICT ON THU WITH TEMPS COOLING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL. THE ETA FORECASTS THE STRATUS TO COME INLAND THU NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF DEEPENS A LITTLE OVER OUR REGION AND THE ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES FAIRLY STRONG. THE GFS THEN KEEPS THIS PATTERN IN PLACE THRU THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WHICH WOULD GIVE US TEMPS AROUND NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW WITH FAIRLY EXTENSIVE STRATUS. HOWEVER...THE EURO FORECASTS HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS SUN/MON WITH STRONGER RIDGING OVER THE SWRN U.S...AND THAT MODEL WOULD KEEP OUR TEMPS AT NORMAL OR A LITTLE ABOVE. A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS KEEPS THE WX RIGHT NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AND THAT SEEMS THE BEST SOLUTION FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...THE BAY AREA WAS UNDER CLEAR SKIES LAST NIGHT AND REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING. A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT...ALONG WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...ERODED AWAY THE MARINE STRATUS DECK THAT USUALLY LOOMS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ALTHOUGH THE NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKENING...DO NOT EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO RETURN TONIGHT. AFTERNOON WINDS AT BAY AREA TERMINALS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT DUE TO THE OFFSHORE PATTERN. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 20-60 NM OUT. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: MARKKANEN MARINE/AVIATION: SELLERS NOAA'S NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO 253 FXUS66 KOTX 302125 AFDOTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA 230 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL GO THROUGH ANOTHER CYCLE OF WARMING AND DRYING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...YESTERDAY'S TROUGH PASSAGE HAS INJECTED A COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH SATELLITE INDICATING THE POLAR STORM TRACK NOW ONCE AGAIN JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. A WEAK SYSTEM CURRENTLY PLOWING INTO THE VANCOUVER ISLE AND NORTHWEST WASHINGTON COAST IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY'S TOUGH PASSAGE. HEAVY FLAT CUMULUS NOTED OVER MOST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN RINGING THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH ANOTHER COOL MORNING EXPECTED. LATEST GFS AND NAM MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND COMPARE PLAUSIBLY AGAINST SATELLITE EXTRAPOLATIONS. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS A FLAT AND RATHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK CLOSE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG BACK NORTH INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON. WEAK DISTURBANCES BUMPING THROUGH THE STORM TRACK WILL MAINTAIN VARYING DEGREES OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES EXPERIENCE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WARMING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE WITH SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION ALOFT BEHIND SOME OF THESE WEAK IMPULSES MAY DECREASE STABILITY TO THE POINT WHERE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO APPEAR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. /FUGAZZI THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LONGWAVE PATTERN DURING THE EARLY PART OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD SHOWS LARGE OFFSHORE TROF AND GULF OF ALASKA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NESTED IN IT AROUND 140 WEST. LONGWAVE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF IT OVER THE CENTRAL US. BY THE WEEKEND THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW DEEPENS AND DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE LARGER OFFSHORE TROF MOVES EAST AND CLOSER TO THE COAST WHILE THE AXIS OF THE CENTRAL US LONGWAVE RIDGE MIGRATES FURTHER EAST AS WELL. THIS EVOLUTION SETS UP A NICE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN THESE TWO WAVEFORMS FOR SHORTWAVE TO TRAVERSE THROUGH. GFS HINTS AT A FEW SHORTWAVES DOING JUST THAT SO WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND FORECAST UNSETTLED WITH LOW POPS FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE FOLLOWED BY MORE ON SATURDAY AS THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW WORKS ITS WAY CLOSER TO WASHINGTON. ON SUNDAY THE CLOSED LOW ITSELF LOOKS TO OPEN UP AND PASS THROUGH EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO. THE LOWS COLD POOL ALOFT CONTAINING 500MB TEMPS OF -24 DEG CELSIUS IS A BIT MORE THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ON THE COLD SIDE OF NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER....THE AFFECT OF THIS WOULD MAKE SUNDAY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST AND RATHER UNSETTLED DUE TO THE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH HAVING THIS COLD POOL OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP SOME UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING INTRUDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEST WILL KEEP A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR MONDAY ONWARD. /RP && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z WED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SPOKANE 43 76 45 81 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 COEUR D'ALENE 45 77 47 81 50 81 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 PULLMAN 50 77 52 80 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 LEWISTON 54 85 54 86 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 COLVILLE 39 78 44 84 46 82 / 10 0 0 10 10 10 SANDPOINT 34 75 39 78 45 81 / 10 0 0 10 10 10 KELLOGG 43 71 45 82 47 84 / 0 0 0 10 0 10 MOSES LAKE 53 82 55 86 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 WENATCHEE 56 81 58 84 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 OMAK 50 82 52 85 51 84 / 10 0 0 10 10 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. WA...NONE. && $$ 581 FXUS62 KGSP 302127 AFDGSP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 527 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPDATING TO CLEAR TORNADO WATCH FROM MTS...AND AREAS SW OF I-26. ORGANIZED CONVECTION NOW LOCATED JUST E OF NC BLUE RIDGE...AND ALONG/E OF I-77 CORRIDOR. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 250 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... WEAK CONFLUENT AXIS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE ACTING ON INCREASING CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE NE WITH MAJORITY OF STORMS EXITING CWFA AROUND 00Z. A COUPLE SEVERE/TORNADIC STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SPC TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT TIL 01Z FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WILL CANCEL FLOOD WATCH AS STORMS MOVING ALONG AND TRANSLATING NE. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE TRAINING AND EASE THE THREAT OF FLOODING. CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED FLOOD PROBLEMS...BUT WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT TERM PRODUCTS. ALSO WILL ALLOW HIGH WIND WARNING/ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 4PM. AFTER 00Z...ATMOSPHERE GRADUALLY STABILIZES EASING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THUS...WILL LOWER POPS INTO CHANCE CATEGORY AND THEN GENERALLY BELOW 20% AFT 06Z. LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND LOWER INTO A STRATUS DECK BY EARLY MORNING. ALSO...WINDS SLOW TO DEVELOP MUCH OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD REMAIN TO PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FOG THREAT. WINDS VEER MORE WESTERLY WED MORNING AND DOWNSLOPE WILL GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOME CLEARING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR TEMPS. ONLY ISOLATED POPS MENTIONED ON WED OVER MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE OVER WESTERLY UPSLOPE AREAS. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTENING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SW TROUGH THAT APPROACHES THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WILL ONLY FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE TENN BORDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF STRONG SW TROUGHS TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND WILL CARVE OUT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE SUN/MON TIME FRAME...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS ADVERTISES ATLANTIC MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA ON DAY 7...ABOVE A RATHER STRONG SURFACE RIDGE. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE TIMING OF ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA...SO WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ON DAY 7. AVIATION... ALL AIRPORTS WILL HAVE THE THREAT OF CONVECTION UNTIL AROUND 00Z WHEN WEAK CONFLUENT ZONE SHOULD MOVE NE OUT OF THE REGION. INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS UNTIL THEN. AFTER 00Z...LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...SO EXPECT CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGHOUT NIGHT. FORECASTING CEILINGS TO LOWER TO AROUND 1800 FT BY 04Z AND THEN WELL INTO IFR TERRITORY BY 10Z. EXPECT THAT MIXING WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT...EXCEPT KAVL LIKELY TO LOWER TO AT LEAST 1 MILE. CEILINGS SLOWLY RISE AFT 12Z WED. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...TORNADO WATCH FOR NCZ034>037-054>057-066>072-082 UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY. SC...TORNADO WATCH FOR SCZ007>009-012>014 UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAT 631 FXUS66 KHNX 302128 AFDHNX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA 225 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WERE RESULTING IN LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VALLEY AND IN THE KERN MTNS/DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON. VALLEY WINDS WILL IN THE SJ VALLEY AS LOWER LEVELS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE KERN MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS INTO WED MORNING AS P-GRADS UNDERGO NOCTURNAL TIGHTENING. OTHERWISE...SURFACE TEMPS AT A FEW CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SJ VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ACROSS ADJACENT LOWER SLOPES WERE RUNNING OVER 10 DEGF BELOW MONDAY/S READINGS...WITH ONLY MINOR 24 HOUR CHANGES OVER HIGHER MOUNTAIN AND DESERT ZONES. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NORCAL COAST WILL REINFORCE THE W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS IT CROSSES THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH UPPER FLOW SLOWLY BACKING TO THE SW IN RESPONSE TO NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EPAC. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT TEMP OR MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE CWA THRU FRI...HOWEVER PROXIMITY OF SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WITH WESTWARD SHIFT TOWARD COAST WILL AID MIXING OF LOWER LEVELS AND REBOUND OF MAX TEMPS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM...FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR PROJECTING TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE EPAC LATE SAT...WITH H5 HEIGHTS REMAINING BETWEEN 582-588 DM SUN-TUES. SOLNS DIFFER REGARDING TROUGH/S AMPLITUDE AND RESULTANT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW...NEVERTHELESS AFFECT ON THE CWA WILL BE LIMITED TO TEMPS DECREASING TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS THIS WEEKEND WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGE ON DAYS 6-7. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z THURSDAY. SPECIFIC DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL. && .HNX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/ JSN 999 FXUS65 KVEF 302131 AFDVEF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 230 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TO STAY OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOHAVE DESERT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW THOSE ON MONDAY AS COOL AIR MOVES OVER THE DISTRICT. GENERALLY FLAT WESTERLY FLOW TO BE OVER THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTHERN RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD BACK TO THE WEST. WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP TEMPS AROUND NORMAL READINGS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY GFS/NAM BEGINNING TO SHOW DIFFERENCES AS NAM KEEPS AREA UNDER MORE WESTERLY/SOUTHWEST FLOW WHILE GFS TRENDING MORE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH FLOW. UNDER GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH 1 INCH READING PUSHING NORTH INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF SAN BERNARDINO/MOHAVE COUNTIES. LI VALUES ALSO DROP TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOHAVE CNTY. NAM MUCH MORE STABLE/DRY. PER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH/EAST TRENDED TOWARDS THE DRIER NAM FOR NOW WHICH LOOKS LIKE BEST BET AS FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IN PLACE ATTM. IN ADDITION SOUTH FLOW AROUND HIGH EVEN PER GFS WOULD PLACE MAIN MOISTURE INCREASE TO THE EAST OF CWA. THUS KEEPING CWA DRY INTO THURSDAY. LITTLE CHANGE TO PATTERN INTO FRIDAY WITH BOTH MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD KEEP RELATIVELY DRY FLOW INTO THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD BUMP UP A DEGREE OR TWO UNDER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...BUT OVERALL BE NEAR NORMAL INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. .LONG TERM...GFS/DGEX CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST FRIDAY WITH SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO MOHAVE COUNTY. THE MOISTURE IS THEN FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE EURO/UKMET ALSO SHOW A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINING OVER THE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP A DRIER FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOHAVE COUNTY FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN ADJUST AS TIME NEARS. WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE POPS FROM MUCH OF LINCOLN AND THE SOUTHERN NEVADA MOUNTAINS AS THE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN EAST. && .AVIATION...TAF ADEQUATELY COVERS ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT KLAS. && .VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NV...NONE. .AZ...NONE. .CA...NONE. && $$ JENSEN/GORELOW 410 FXUS66 KPQR 302134 AFDPQR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR 300 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW TO THE NORTH COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS BEHIND TROUGH WEDNESDAY TURNING FLOW NORTH TO NORTHWEST. THERMAL TROUGH SOUTHWEST OREGON THURSDAY MORNING SHIFTS TO EASTERN OREGON IN AFTERNOON. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS PACIFIC TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES. TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AREA. TROUGH MOVES INTO IDAHO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN OREGON BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .SHORT TERM...NEXT TROUGH IN NW FLOW MOVING INTO WESTERN WA MOVES WELL E OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS NEAR KAST SINKS FURTHER S OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BROKEN CLOUDS SPREAD INLAND N BY MORNING. HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK N WED AFTERNOON BEHIND TROUGH TURNING FLOW N TO NW. SKIES CLEAR MOST AREAS WITH SOME CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR NORTHERN COAST. RIDGE STRONGEST WED AFTERNOON SINKS S WED NIGHT. THIS ALLOWS ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND PUSH CLOUDS SOLIDLY INTO NORTHERN COAST WED NIGHT AND INTO N INTERIOR BY THU MORNING. TROUGH IN GULF OF AK GIVES SW FLOW ALOFT TO AREA THU. THIS GIVES STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW TO AREA AS THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO EASTERN OREGON. CLOUDS BREAK INLAND THU BUT ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING NORTHERN COAST. TROUGH CONTINUES TO SINK S INTO AREA FRI. THIS PUSHES SOLID MARINE CLOUDS AGAINST COAST AND EVEN MORE CLOUDS INLAND FRI MORNING. CLOUDS REMAIN SOLID ALONG COAST WITH STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW FRI WITH PARTIAL CLEARING INLAND NORTH. .LONG TERM...GFS STRONGEST ON TROUGH FOR WEEKEND THROUGH EURO ONLY SLIGHTLY WEAKER. GFS SHOWS SOLID RAIN THREAT FOR AT LEAST COAST ON SAT SPREADING INLAND SAT NIGHT. WILL LEAVE AS CHANCE FOR NOW WHICH WOULD BE CLOSER TO EURO SOLUTION. WILL STILL LEAVE SHOWER THREAT NORTH SUN ESPECIALLY NORTHERN COAST AND MOUNTAINS AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS N FROM SOUTHERN ORE. MON/TUE LOOK TO BE BEST DAYS WITH WARMING TEMPS. KOSOVITZ && .AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THEN LOW MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE N COAST LATER TONIGHT AND SPREAD S AND INLAND. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS BY 12Z...MAINLY COAST AND NORTH...THAT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ABOUT 18Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT POPS AST 110111 PDX 000000 SLE 000000 EUG 000000 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES .WA/OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR. && $$ MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT... http://weather.gov/portland THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA. 899 FXUS65 KGJT 302136 AFDGJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 335 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO OFFICE IS BEING BACKED UP BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT OFFICE TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT...SLCAFDSLC...FOR DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. && $$ 900 FXUS65 KFGZ 302139 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 240 PM MST TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU ARE EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE DRY WESTERLY FLOW THAT BROUGHT US THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DID KEEP THE LOW GRADE POPS IN FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA ALONG WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS. GFS IS ADVERTISING A RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO AND A SHIFT IN THE FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS NOT THE BEST TRAJECTORY FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR THAT DAY...EXCEPT FOR THE WHITES. AS OF RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE FORECASTING A MORE FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THAT AREA. BY THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE PROGGING THE HIGH CENTER REMAINING OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE LIMITED INCREASES IN MOISTURE AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW GRADE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. CK && .AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED CUMULUS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY ISOLATED FLAT CUMULUS DEVELOPING AGAIN WEDNESDAY...ROUGHLY FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. PETERSON && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 439 FXUS66 KPDT 302144 AFDPDT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR 244 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING INTO THE PACNW AND SHOULD SPREAD SOME MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT THE POSSIBILITY OF A RECORD LOW OCCURRING IN MEACHAM. FOR TOMORROW THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WHICH WILL MOVE ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MAINLY THROUGH WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN BY THURSDAY. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH THIS CONSISTENCY...I AM CONFIDENT IN INTRODUCING A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS (LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN...KITTITAS VALLEY...YAKIMA VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES...OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...IF ANY...WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND WILL NOT HELP TO ALLEVIATE THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. POLAN && .PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN DECREASING WINDS WITH LIGHT WINDS BY LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES AND TWEB ROUTES. THERE ARE ALSO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON WHICH WILL MOVE OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON AND EASTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT. POLAN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 52 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 55 85 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 49 87 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 47 84 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 48 86 53 88 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 49 81 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 39 84 42 86 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 45 83 48 88 / 0 0 0 0 5J0 44 86 46 88 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 55 86 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. && $$ TI:GGG FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON 97/99/99 439 FXUS66 KMFR 302147 AFDMFR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 245 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...OTH-ACV AND MFR-STS GRADIENTS BETWEEN 8-10MB THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC RIDGE BUILDING RAPIDLY INTO NWRN OREGON. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH ON WED EVENING AND ZONAL FLOW ALONG US/CANADIAN BORDER ALLOWS A FLAT BUT STABLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER NRN CALIFORNIA AND SRN OREGON FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND COOL NIGHTS IN A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY...UNTIL A SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA RIDES THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW INTO BC. A SFC FRONT DRAGS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES A SOUTHWARD TRACK INTO NW CALIFORNIA SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE BROADBRUSHED A VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT AND LOWER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL RANGES EAST TO I5 THIS COMING WEEKEND. .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...PZZ356-376. CA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...PZZ356-376. && $$ MJV ALSO VISIT THE NWS ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD 022 FXUS66 KSTO 302149 AFDSTO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 300 PM TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH CONTINUES TO GENERATE NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS DOWN THE VALLEY WITH SOME GUST REPORTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH. THESE WINDS, ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED LOW HUMIDITIES, WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG ADVISORY IN MANY OF OUR FIRE WEATHER ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGHER PRESSURE, THE AFORE MENTIONED NORTHERLY WINDS AND THE LACK OF ANY DELTA BREEZES, HAVE RESULTED IN A WARMUP FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES OVER MOST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS STRONGHOLD IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WILL BRING THE FLOW ALOFT TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION AGAIN, WHICH SHOULD REESTABLISH AN ON-SHORE MARINE INFLOW AND RESULT IN COOLER MAXIMA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. RCH && .AVIATION... GUSTY NORTH WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN THIS EVENING...BECOMING LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY LATER TONIGHT...BUT COULD HANG IN A LITTLE LONGER UP IN RDD/RBL AREA. OTHERWISE NO AVIATION CONCERNS. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING...TODAY THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR FIRE WX ZONES 213... 215...216...263...264...266...FOR GUSTY NORTH WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. && $$ 875 FXUS62 KCAE 302212 AAA AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 612 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AT THE MOMENT. SOME STRONG STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE. WILL LOWER POPS FOR TONIGHT AS DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL WANE BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED LWA AS REGION OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 311 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT COMPUTED LI'S EXPECTED TO BE NEAR -4 THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUING HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE 2. WILL KEEP CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. ON WED KATRINA BECOMES ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL TROUGH AND LIFT ALONG FRONT AND CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL FAVOR A CHANCE OF THUMDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVE IN ON THUR. WITH SW FLOW DOMINATING AND DECREASING CLOUDS MAX TEMPS WILL RISE TO THE 90S ON WED AND THUR. BY WED NIGHT MINIMUMS SHOULD COOL SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER 70S AS CLOUDS DECREASE FOLLOWING FRONT.MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS TIGHT GRADIENT WITH KATRINA MOVES NORTH. DO NOT PLAN TO EXTEND LAKE WIND ADVISORY INTO THE NIGHT. LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... DRY MID/UPPER NW FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA AND RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS FROM CENTRAL US EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD BRING DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPEARS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THIS MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS. AVIATION... RMNTS OF KATRINA MOVG ACRS AREA ATTM CAUSING SCT CONVECTION. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN TSTMS TIL 00Z. S TO SW WNDS 10 TO 20 KTS WTH HIGHER GUSTS TIL HR OR TWO BFR SS. SW WNDS 5 TO 10 KTS OVRNITE THEREFORE LTL OR NO FOG. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ 17 734 FXUS66 KSEW 302220 AFDSEW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 320 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BRUSHING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM...CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH COVER MOST OF WESTERN WA THIS AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL PLAGUING THE NORTHERN ZONES. FOR ALL THE ECHOS SHOWING UP ON RADAR SO FAR...ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIP AT BEST HAS SHOWN UP AT OB SITES. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN WAVE JUST PAST TOFINO AT 2 PM...THOUGH THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THERE MAY CONTAIN A FEW SPRINKLES AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTH PART TONIGHT...AND SHOW JUST A LITTLE BIT NEAR THE NORTH COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. 18Z NAM HAS COME BACK CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION IN SLOWLY BACKING THE FLOW ALOFT TO SW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CAUSED BY THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM DIGGING SLOWLY SE FROM THE GULF OF AK. THIS SHIFTS THE STORM TRACK BACK UP OVER B.C. THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH A CLOSE BRUSH-BY TROUGH MAY SPRINKLE ON THE EXTREME NORTH ZONES FRIDAY. OTHERWISE THE DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE WITH A LITTLE THINNING OF THE CLOUDS...THOUGH PARTLY SUNNY IS ABOUT THE BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR. GFS TIME-HEIGHT SECTION SHOWS LOTS OF CIRRUS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. KAM .LONG TERM...THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS ALMOST LIKE A REPEAT OF THIS PAST WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LABOR DAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SERVE AS A DRY BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. JH && .AVIATION...WEAK WARM FRONT OVER FAR NRN WA THIS EVENING...THEN MOVING EWD. MULTIPLE CLOUDS LAYERS...WITH CIGS GENERALLY 6-8K FEET AND SCT BELOW. ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE N OF KPAE TONIGHT WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS. PATCHY LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE INLAND AREAS AFT 12Z TONIGHT...AND AFT 08Z NEAR THE COAST. KSEA...S WIND 8-12KT THROUGH 01Z THEN SWITCHING TO N WIND 7-10 KT AND BECMG LIGHT/VAR AFT 06Z. DTM. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && .KATX...VCP21/CSR21 OPERATIONAL. $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE 865 FXUS64 KLUB 302223 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 523 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM... QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS DRY NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS ARE NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES AND SEE NO REASON TO QUIBBLE. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW WILL PUSH A SURFACE FRONT INTO THE AREA. BIGGEST QUESTION THIS SHIFT WAS RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. INITIAL THOUGHTS WERE NOT OPTIMISTIC GIVEN VERY DRY 12Z SOUNDINGS AND VERY DRY AIR OVER THE PLAINS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING A LITTLE BIT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE OF RECENT WEEKS WILL BE LACKING. PLUS...MODEL DEPICTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE A BIT UNDERDONE AS MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH HANDLING THE ABOVE NORMAL GROUND MOISTURE WE ARE EXPERIENCING. REGARDLESS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED IN MAGNITUDE /EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS/ AND DEPTH /TIME SECTIONS SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE 650MB/. WILL ALSO HAVE TO DEAL WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THUS AM REASONABLY SCEPTICAL OF INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT NOT SO MUCH TO PULL 20 POPS FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST. WILL CUT BACK ON TIMING TO THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME. PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS REGARDING FRONTAL TIMING AND SKY COVER LOOK FINE WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT. .LONG TERM... EASTERLY FLOW AROUND SFC RIDGE WILL DRAW SOME MOIST LOW-LVL AIR BACK INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM RUNS KEEP THE QPF MAINLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA THROUGH THU NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE RETAINED OUR LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TSTM ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE SRN PANHANDLE/NRN SPLNS FROM NM. DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE UPR RIDGE PREVENT IT FROM GAINING STRENGTH GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...GFS GUIDANCE SHOWS A STEADY DROP-OFF IN HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES ACROSS THE AREA FRI-MON. WITH THIS AND THE E-SE FLOW AT THE SFC DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE MUCH OF A WARMUP AT THE SFC. A STRONGER SHTWV TROF WILL MOVE ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NW ON SUN. AS THIS TROF MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS MON-TUE WE COULD SEE AN INCREASING CHC OF TSTMS IN DEVELOPING SFC TROF ACROSS THE SW PANHANDLE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD...BY TUE OR SO. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 58 86 59 87 / 0 20 20 20 TULIA 58 86 59 88 / 0 20 20 20 PLAINVIEW 61 87 60 87 / 0 20 20 20 LEVELLAND 61 91 63 90 / 0 10 20 10 LUBBOCK 63 91 64 89 / 0 10 20 20 BROWNFIELD 63 92 64 90 / 0 10 10 10 CHILDRESS 64 93 66 90 / 0 20 20 20 SPUR 63 93 66 90 / 0 10 10 10 ASPERMONT 67 94 68 93 / 0 10 10 10 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 07/33 050 FXUS61 KRNK 302228 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 628 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPDATING FCST TO ADJUST POPS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY GETTING PRETTY SCTD IN THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHEAST. TOR WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 9PM. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 230 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... DAYTIME HEATING IS GENERATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LINES OF TSRA IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. BUT HELICITY AND SHEAR ARE BETTER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. STILL ENOUGH OVERLAP TO KEEP THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER GOING UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA GET PULLED INTO THE MID LATITUDE TROF...THE FEEDER BANDS INTO THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA(CWA). AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...A TRAILING PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE CWA BY THEN. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE MODELS TO KEEP POPS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN STALLED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS COMES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. EVEN THE LOW LEVELS(BELOW 850MB) DRY OUT BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY. EVEN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DROP BELOW ONE INCH. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM HEATING ON THUR. LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... USING GFS AS RECOMMENDED BY NCEP AS A BASE FOR THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES IN THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE EVENTUALLY CLOSES OF AS A LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY TUESDAY. ON SATURDAY CWA IS IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 250MB JET COMING OUT OF THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROF. FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE SURFACE WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE GFS. THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. EXTENDED MODELS AREA ALSO SHOWING A COASTAL TROF FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO FLORIDA BY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS AND LIFT WITH THE FRONT SO NO POPS AS THIS TIME. AFTER SATURDAY CWA IS IN A LESS HUMID AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS. AVIATION... MAINLY HIGH END MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA WHICH WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHORTLY. THINK ONCE CONVECTION FADES THIS EVENING...WILL SEE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG FILL BACK IN GIVEN RESIDUAL LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN WAKE OF KATRINA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W WED AND SLOWLY ACT TO IMPROVE CIGS TOWARD VFR BY MIDDAY AFTER A MVFR/IFR START AT MOST SITES. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ JS 555 FXUS65 KBYZ 302300 AFDBYZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 500 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU... MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO ZONES FOR PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION BAND ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES. IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING. CHAMBERS A WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF TRANSITS THE AREA. A 40 MILE WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS IS ACCOMPANYING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROF THROUGH THE AREA. IN ADDITION A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH 40KT WINDS ALOFT ARE PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR IS LURKING JUST SOUTH OF MONTANA AND LOOKS POISED TO WRAP INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHICH SHOULD SHIFT THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE HIGHER TODAY THAN EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD ENABLE CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND LONGER THIS EVENING SO HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY...BUT STILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MORNING AS THE TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST. FREEZING LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 7 AND 8 KFT OVERNIGHT AND WITH CLEARING SKIES SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 20S BY MORNING. EXPECT A MIX OF UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY PLEASANT FOR LATE SUMMER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE WEST TOMORROW AND WITH SUNNY SKIES ENABLING GOOD MIXING WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. WITH A BIT OF DOWNSLOPE WARMING EXPECT A QUICK WARM UP WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S. A CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT IN STORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT. FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY ALLOWING STILL WARMER AIR TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. ANOTHER CLEAR CALM NIGHT IS ON TAP THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS. .LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE... ALL MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY TO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST BY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN AMPLIFIED SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SWING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY. GFS A BIT SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE BY SUNDAY EVENING...BUT SIMILAR ENOUGH TO SUGGEST A COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE TROUGH LOOKS VERY PROGRESSIVE AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL REMAIN IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CATEGORY. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS TEMPERATURES WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE STARTING COOLING TREND ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH ON SUNDAY AND MORE SUBSTANTIALLY ON MONDAY. FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. MEIER && .AVIATION... AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY FROM LWT-BIL-SHR WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA BY 9 PM MDT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS AS LOW AS 2500 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 4 MILES. STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 10 PM MDT. CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW MORNING. CHAMBERS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 044/076 052/081 053/086 055/088 054/085 053/077 050/076 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T 00/B LVM 036/076 041/080 045/086 047/087 048/084 047/079 044/078 20/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/B 12/T 10/B HDN 044/076 049/085 053/090 051/092 051/089 050/078 046/077 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T 00/B MLS 044/078 048/083 053/089 055/093 057/088 055/079 050/078 +0/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T 00/B 4BQ 045/077 047/084 051/090 053/092 056/089 056/079 048/078 +0/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T 00/B BHK 047/073 045/082 048/086 053/090 054/084 053/077 048/076 60/N 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T 00/B SHR 038/076 042/082 048/088 049/088 051/086 050/077 046/076 +0/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T 00/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS 269 FXUS61 KLWX 302316 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 716 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPDATED PUBLIC PRODUCTS ALREADY RELEASED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH 762 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT. SEE W/W/A AT THE END OF THIS AFD FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. REST OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED ATTM. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 240 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TNGT/WED)... MOST OF MY ENERGY HAS BEEN SPENT ON THE TNGT PD AND ANALYZING THE SVR THREAT. I REMAIN UNDERWHELMED BY THE VWP I'M SEEING FM THE KLWX 88D. AIR MASS OVR OUR CWA HAS A HIGH THETA-E BUT XTNSV CLD CVR IS LIMITING THE AIRS ABILITY TO ASCEND. I AM NOTING THAT IF BRKS DVLP STORMS COULD DVLP RAPIDLY...PRODUCING HVY RAIN...BUT IN THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA SPIN IS MINIMAL. WE DO HV TOR WTCH BOXES TO OUR S AND W. SPOKE W/ SPC FOR THEIR THOUGHTS AND WAS TOLD THAT THEY WL WAIT AND SEE WHAT DVLPS B4 ISSUING ANYTHING FOR OUR CWA. WL MAINTAIN PSBL SVR WRDNG IN ZNS. CHC POPS RMN ON WED AS KATRINA REMNANTS MV INTO NEW ENGLAND. WOODY! LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-TUE) EXTENDED FCST LOOKS PRETTY NICE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S AND 50S AT NIGHT. NO RAIN IS IN SIGHT THRU THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. ROSA AVIATION...MAIN PROBLEM WL BE RAPID REDUCTIONS IN VSBLTY THIS EVE IN HVY RA WHERE TSTMS DVLP OVER AIRPORTS. MARINE...SCA ALL WATERS. G30 PSBL ON THE CHES BAY BTWN SRLY GRADIENT AND CHANNELING. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...TORNADO WATCH FOR DCZ001 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. MD...TORNADO WATCH FOR MDZ004-009-013-016>018 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. VA...TORNADO WATCH FOR VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>537 UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY. ...TORNADO WATCH FOR ANZ533>537 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...PELOQUIN PREV DISCUSSION...WOODY!/ROSA 397 FXUS66 KEKA 302311 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 400 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY OFFSHORE FLOW TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL AS SOME COOLING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS COOLING WILL SPREAD FARTHER INTO THE INTERIOR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY PERIODIC EPISODES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT THE COAST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVES INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON. && .SHORT TERM... BEAUTIFUL CRYSTAL CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON... WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE EXPOSED RIDGES...MOUNTAIN PASSES...AND COASTAL WATERS. DRY OFFSHORE FLOW DOWN TO THE 925MB LEVEL HAS MAXIMIZED TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS JUST A RANGE OR TWO EAST OF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER 90S COMING IN FROM LOCATIONS SUCH AS GASQUET AND LAYTONVILLE...AND PLENTY OF 80S OVER THE RIDGES. DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT...THOUGH FREE AIR TEMPS AT RIDGETOP LEVEL APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL WARM SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL MEAN A FEW 30S AND PLENTY OF 40S BY MORNING...BUT DON'T EXPECT WE'LL MAKE IT TO FROSTY LEVELS ZONE-WIDE. CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A LIGHT FROST AT SOME OF THE COOLEST LOCATIONS IN THE AREA...HOWEVER. FOR TOMORROW EXPECT A WARM-UP OF 3 TO 5F INLAND AS OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY AIR CONTINUE AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP A BIT. ALONG THE COAST IT'S A LITTLE MORE OF A TOUGH CALL ON TEMPS...AS SLIGHTLY WEAKER WIND FLOW...WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...AND FALLING SFC PRESSURES ALL WOULD INDICATE A RISE IN TEMPS...BUT MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHT COOLING. HAVE OPTED FOR A 2F WARM-UP WHICH WOULD PUT THE EUREKA WFO AT 68F...SHY OF THE 72F RECORD. ONE MORE NIGHT OF OFFSHORE FLOW WED NIGHT...BUT WITH GRADIENT WEAKENING EXPECT FOG TO RETURN. THURSDAY INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOG WILL LIKELY HANG ALONG COASTAL AREAS...POSSIBLY INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS THE INTERIOR COOLS JUST A TAD...LIKELY DUE TO A LITTLE MORE RH SEEPING IN. && .LONG TERM... HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE PAC NW STARTS TO WEAKEN THURS INTO FRIDAY AS A SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA BEGINS DROPPING SE TOWARD WASHINGTON AND OREGON. HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWN WITH GRADIENT TEMP DROPS AND CORRESPONDING MOS GUIDANCE AS PRESSURE FEATURES WEAKEN AND DRIFT SE. THIS WILL MEAN MORE ISSUES WITH FOG AND STRATUS ALONG THE COAST THU AND FRI...BUT ALSO A DECREASE IN THE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT COOLDOWN WILL CONTINUE INLAND...BUT SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF SUN EVEN AT THE COAST SINCE THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME DISTURBED BY THE INCOMING SYSTEM AND COOLER AIR ALOFT. RIGHT NOW DON'T EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN A LITTLE DRIZZLE AS FOG OVER THE OCEAN BLOWS INTO THE COAST SAT/SUN...BUT IF SYSTEM DROPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH NWERN AREAS COULD SEE A LITTLE RAIN. LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEAK ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS INTO THE PAC NW...BUT RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE WEAKER THAN THE ONE WE HAVE NOW...SO SUSPECT NICE WEATHER ALONG THE COAST WILL ONLY LAST A DAY OR TWO. && .AVIATION...PLEASE SEE TAFS/TWEBS FOR DETAILS. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GALE WARNING PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA 20-60NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA COAST-20 NM. && $$ LUTZ VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA 898 FXUS64 KFWD 302319 AAA AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 620 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .AVIATION... NO CONCERNS. VFR WITH SKC THROUGH NOON WED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR EVEN CALM TONIGHT...BUT MIXING TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NE WINDS. TR/92 && .DISCUSSION... ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT AS KATRINA MOVES FURTHER AWAY. A FEW SHRA DEVELOPED SW OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY S WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM N FLOW. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO N TEXAS TO TRIGGER STORMS. FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AND MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...BUT AT THE SAME TIME H5 RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION. THAT...AND THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BACK DOOR INTO N TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL BACK IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR THIS FRONT TO WORK WITH EITHER...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE ONGOING FORECAST. END OF GFS FORECAST...WEEK FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOOKS A BIT MORE INTERESTING FOR THOSE SEARCHING FOR SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE INTO FALL. BUT THEN AGAIN...EXTENDED PORTION OF GFS OFTEN SWINGS WIDELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRANSITION MONTHS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 72 98 73 97 / 10 0 0 0 WACO, TX 70 99 70 96 / 10 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 67 95 68 95 / 10 0 0 0 DENTON, TX 70 98 70 97 / 10 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 71 98 71 97 / 10 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 73 98 74 97 / 10 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 70 98 71 97 / 10 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 70 98 71 96 / 10 0 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 72 99 71 96 / 10 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 80/ 328 FXUS63 KIWX 302333 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 635 PM EST TUE AUG 30 2005 .AVIATION... WILL BE USING THE 18Z GFS AND CURRENT RUC40 FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA...WAS LOCATED BETWEEN LOUISVILLE AND FRANKFORT KENTUCKY AT 23Z. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST...WEAKENING AS IT DOES...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW TO MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCD WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO AS SEEN BY KIWX AND SURROUNDING RADARS. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z....PCPN WILL MOVE ENE AS WELL. THUS...WILL CONTINUE MVFR CONDITIONS IN CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN/MIST AT KFWA THROUGH 06Z...THEN END IT THEREAFTER. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KFWA BY 09Z AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT NE INTO NORTHEAST OHIO. KSBN REMAINS TOO FAR TO THE WEST OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS...SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THERE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RESIDUAL LOW LVL MSTR AT THE 850 MB LVL WILL ALLOW SCT-BKN CUMULUS TO DEVELOP ACRS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z WEDNESDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY 00Z. .PREV DISCUSSION... UPDATE... WAVE MODEL YIELDS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAVES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTN...SO WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR THE NEARSHORE ZONES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM... WATER VAPOR SHOWING REMNANTS OF KATRINA SHEARING QUICKLY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST. DEFORMATION TYPE PCPN ON NORTHWEST SIDE OF CIRCULATION AFFECTING SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PCPN HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE NORTHWEST AS IT ENCOUNTERS MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE. CIRCULATION CENTER LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG TRACK OF BEST HEIGHT FALLS HAS FINALLY ALLOWED EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD TO BEGIN INCHING NORTHWEST AGAIN. EXPECT SOME WESTWARD EXPANSION AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST THIS EVENING BEFORE BACK EDGE BEGINS TO PIVOT EAST. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL CONTINUES IN FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE RADAR RETURNS HAVE SHOWN INCREASE REFLECTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN BUT SPREAD OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 15 HOURS. THEREFORE EXPECT RUNOFF TO BE HANDLED FAIRLY WELL WITH ONLY SOME LOCALIZED PROBLEMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH NOWCASTS AND ESF HIGHLIGHTING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BUT NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. AS ALWAYS...WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING FOR ANY CHANGES. HAVE LEFT A SHARP CUTOFF TO WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN IN GRIDS. THIS LEAVES EXTREME NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA DRY OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED TREND OF ENDING PCPN FROM WEST TO EAST BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO END AS QUICK AS HPC QPF FORECAST. HAVE HELD ONTO POPS ALL NIGHT NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHEAST INDIANA...THEN END PCPN ALL TOGETHER IN THE FAR NORTHEAST WED MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM WEST IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM. SKY COVER SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...HOWEVER...SCT-BKN CU EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS WHERE LESS SUBSIDENCE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAIN ALONG WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LONG TERM... LOW PRESSURE DEPICTED WELL ON WATER VAPOR ALONG H50 TROF OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BITTERROOT RANGE IN THE PAC NW. MODELS CONTINUE TO TRANSFER MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PEAK HEATING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG DIGGING OF H50 TROF OVER THE MIDWEST ON WED. MODELS SHOW MORE AMPLIFICATION AND AN INCREASE IN 85-70H RH DURING THU AM OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH PASSAGE OF H50 TROF. CANADIAN MODEL DAMPENS THE H50 TROF CONSIDERABLY BY 12Z THU BEFORE MOVING IT INTO THE CWA. DUE TO LACK OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND TIMING OF DAY AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO LEFT CWA DRY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND DOMINATES THE AREA AS RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD TROF SETTING UP OVER PAC NW. SLOW MODERATING TEMPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS SUN/MON AM...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NW CWA. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE KBEH FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S. STRONG RIDGE OVER EASTERN HALF OF US STARTS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL CONUS. SYSTEM WILL TAKE TIME TO IMPEDE RIDGE AS HIGH PRES HOLDS FIRM OVER NEW ENGL. FEEL ATTM SYSTEM WILL NOT MOVE INTO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TILL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-LMZ046. && $$ AVIATION...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...LASHLEY LONG TERM...WAMSLEY 805 FXUS63 KDTX 302339 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 738 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .AVIATION... THE 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE... REMNANTS OF KATRINA... NEAR LOUISVILLE, KY. EXPANSIVE AREA OF RAIN AND IFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO. HAVE SEEN A PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS DETROIT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO WEST-CENTRAL OHIO TONIGHT... SPREADING SOME HEAVIER RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS INTO DETROIT THIS EVENING. THE BEST LIFT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING... THEN PERSIST THROUGH 12Z THU. AFTER 12Z... THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST TOWARD BUFFALO ALLOWING SOME SUBSIDENCE AND DRYER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA... PROVING FOR IMPROVED CIGS AND VSBY THROUGH THE MORNING. FARTHER NORTH... SOME MID LEVEL DEFORMATION IN ADVANCE OF THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA AND WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100KT UPPER JET EAST OF LAKE HURON HAS ALLOWED SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM PTK ALL THE WAY UP TO FNT. THIS DEFORMATION SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ON THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE SURFACE LOW. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD STILL PROVIDE MVFR CIGS AND VSBY THROUGH THE NIGHT... EVEN WORKING INTO MBS OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NORTHERN FRINGE OF KATRINA TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT ZONES...WHICH DEPICT SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION. RAIN SHIELD HAS SPREAD INTO MONROE/LENAWEE COUNTIES AS OF 3 PM. WOULD EXPECT THE NORTHERN EDGE TO REACH M-59 THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...TO MAYBE AS FAR NORTH AS I-69...PER MID LEVEL OMEGA FIELDS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STABLE...AND DO NOT EXPECT THUNDER WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. IN FACT...HAVE SEEN NO LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO TODAY. WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND LACK OF INSTABILITY...NO CONCERNS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL HERE IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH MODEST 850-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. NONE-THE-LESS...MONROE COUNTY SHOULD DO OK WITH A QUARTER TO MAYBE HALF AN INCH OF RAIN. LARGE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA TO ABSORB KATRINA BY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. SLOW CLEARING TREND TOMORROW DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATED MAXES AROUND 80 DEGREES WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH KATRINA RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...EXTENDED FORECAST QUIETS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGH PRESSURE...FROM THE SURFACE UP...BUILDS IN FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST...PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY WEATHER TO SPEAK OF WILL BE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT RACES THROUGH THE LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE BEST LIFT/FORCING WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...AND WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 100 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON...6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM....DG AVIATION ....CONSIDINE 629 FXUS61 KRNK 302345 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 745 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .AVIATION... PLENTY OF SHOWERS ARND AT THE MOMENT AND SHUD SEE A GENERAL DECLINE IN THE ACTIVITY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND WE LOSE INSTABILITY. SWLY BREEZE LIKELY TO STAY UP MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS SWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP MVFR CIGS ARND THRU THE NIGHT AT MOST PLACES AND INTO THE MORNING...BUT THIS WILL KEEP FOG TO A MINIMUM. LOOK FOR SKIES TO BREAK OUT TO VFR WITH MIXING BY LATE MORNING WED. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE DAY. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 628 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPDATING FCST TO ADJUST POPS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY GETTING PRETTY SCTD IN THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHEAST. TOR WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 9PM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 230 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... DAYTIME HEATING IS GENERATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LINES OF TSRA IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. BUT HELICITY AND SHEAR ARE BETTER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. STILL ENOUGH OVERLAP TO KEEP THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER GOING UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA GET PULLED INTO THE MID LATITUDE TROF...THE FEEDER BANDS INTO THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA(CWA). AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...A TRAILING PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE CWA BY THEN. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE MODELS TO KEEP POPS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN STALLED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS COMES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. EVEN THE LOW LEVELS(BELOW 850MB) DRY OUT BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY. EVEN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DROP BELOW ONE INCH. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM HEATING ON THUR. LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... USING GFS AS RECOMMENDED BY NCEP AS A BASE FOR THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES IN THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE EVENTUALLY CLOSES OF AS A LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY TUESDAY. ON SATURDAY CWA IS IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 250MB JET COMING OUT OF THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROF. FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE SURFACE WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE GFS. THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. EXTENDED MODELS AREA ALSO SHOWING A COASTAL TROF FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO FLORIDA BY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS AND LIFT WITH THE FRONT SO NO POPS AS THIS TIME. AFTER SATURDAY CWA IS IN A LESS HUMID AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS. AVIATION... MAINLY HIGH END MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA WHICH WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHORTLY. THINK ONCE CONVECTION FADES THIS EVENING...WILL SEE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG FILL BACK IN GIVEN RESIDUAL LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN WAKE OF KATRINA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W WED AND SLOWLY ACT TO IMPROVE CIGS TOWARD VFR BY MIDDAY AFTER A MVFR/IFR START AT MOST SITES. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ JS 279 FXUS61 KCLE 302350 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 750 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .AVIATION (00Z-00Z)... WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TRY AND PIN DOWN THE HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN AS THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR BANDS TO FILL IN AS THEY ROTATE NORTHWARD. ANOTHER SURGE OF HEAVIER RAIN COMING NORTH FROM CENTRAL OHIO. HEAVIEST RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY FROM NR CLE SW TOWARD FDY/MNN OVERNIGHT AS THIS SHOULD BE THE AREA OF BEST CONFLUENCE ALOFT BUT HIGHER ELEVATION TAFS CAK MFD AND YNG WILL LIKELY CONT TO SEE OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL PERHAPS EARLY MORN WHEN THEY MAY BRIEFLY SLIP INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVLOP MAINLY IN THE COOL NNE FLOW AND THE WRAP AROUND WNW FLOW. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS CURRENLTY SOUTH OF LOW AND THESE MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE NE AND PERSIST ACROSS NE OH/NW PA INTO WED AFTERNOON BEFORE ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT. ONCE RAIN ENDS VSBY SHOULD BECOME VFR. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY)... GFS MODEL APPEARS TO STILL HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA AS THE MODEL DEPICTED THE PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA MUCH SOONER AND THE BEST ORIENTATION COMPARED TO THE ETA AND NGM SOLUTIONS. WILL STICK WITH THE GFS SOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. REMNANTS OF KATRINA MAKING ITS WAY NORTH AND THEN EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT FROM GFS AND RUC INDICATE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR FROM FINDLAY ACROSS THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES UP TO ERIE PENNSYLVANIA AFTER 00Z. THIS BAND WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 09Z TONIGHT. CENTER OF KATRINA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND BE OVER ERIE BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING AT WHICH TIME THE PRECIPITATION WILL START TO TAPER OFF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. DUE TO THE AXIS OF THE HEAVY RAIN EXTENDING FURTHER WEST...WE WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FLOOD WATCH. WE NEED ABOUT 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN 6 HOURS TO CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THE NEW WATCH AREA BUT WE FEEL THAT MAIN THREATS OF FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN THE URBAN AREAS OF FINDLAY AND TOLEDO. A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT EXISTS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SECONDARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION LOCATED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING FORCING DEW POINTS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 70. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FEED THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS MUCH LOWER AND THREAT OF FLOODING HAS A GREATER POTENTIAL IN BOTH RURAL AND URBAN AREAS. THE THREAT OF WIND WILL BE DIMINISHED AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA AFFECT THE AREA. WILL MENTION WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 30 MPH OVERNIGHT. 925 MB WINDS INDICATE 30 KNOTS WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM AND THESE STRONGER WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EXTEND DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH CONVECTION. REMNANTS QUICKLY PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY TAKING THREAT OF RAIN WITH IT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND FORCE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE 70S DURING THE DAY AND 50S AT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND FORCE SOME COOLER AIR SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING AND ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA AS WELL WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTING UP FOR A PLEASANT HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. I MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO THE TEMPERATURES TO MAKE THEM SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS TRENDING TOWARD SOME SLOW AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND COLD POOL WILL BRUSH BY THE AREA. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...FLOOD WATCH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTRN THRU WED AFTRN. .PA...FLOOD WATCH ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES THIS AFTRN THRU WED AFTRN. $$ SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...KOSARIK 849 FXUS62 KFFC 302351 AAA AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 750 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM... KATRINA DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION...BUT STILL PACKING A PUNCH AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE-OHIO VALLEY REGION. WINDS DIMINISHING AND WILL CANCEL WIND ADVISORY WITH ISSUANCE OF NEW ZONES. SPIRAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA AFFECTING MAINLY EAST SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NEED TO HOLD ON TO LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS HOLDING ON TO SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND HINTING AT WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY..WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF OUR AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WEAK TROUGH APPEARS TO LINGER JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS MAINTAIN DRYING OVER OUR AREA AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST. .LONG TERM... UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. LATEST RUN OF GFS HINT AT UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN SOME TUESDAY...ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO COME ONSHORE SPREADING CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY INTO EAST SECTS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. && .AVIATION... AS KATRINA PULLS AWAY WE ARE LEFT WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD TREND SLOWLY TOWARD A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT. THIS IS A TREND TOWARD DRIER AIR. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A LITTLE LIFT AND SHOULD SUPPORT ONE OR TWO SCATTERED LAYERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS GRADIENT RELAXES THERE SHOULD BE DECOUPLING AT SOME POINT TONIGHT. WITH THE SOILS WET WE MAY SEE A SHALLOW LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE TRY TO SATURATE TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECTING SOME MVFR FOG. THERE MAY EVEN BE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER FORM BETWEEN 5 HUNDRED AND 15 HUNDRED FEET. BUT THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO LAST LONG AS MIXING RESUMES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATLANTA 71 87 69 89 / 20 20 10 10 ATHENS 69 91 66 90 / 20 20 10 5 GAINESVILLE 69 87 65 88 / 20 20 10 10 ROME 71 90 65 93 / 20 20 20 10 COLUMBUS 72 92 71 93 / 20 20 10 5 MACON 74 92 67 92 / 30 20 10 5 .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 15 833 FXUS61 KILN 302357 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 757 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .AVIATION (00Z-24Z)... SURFACE LOW IS APPROACHING THE CINCINNATI AREA AND WITH IT COMES A BREAK IN THE STEADY PRECIPITATION. EXPECT THE LOW TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST AND AS IT DOES WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE TAF SITES. APPEARS THAT CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR WITH PRIMARILY MVFR VISIBILITIES OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END OVERNIGHT WITH THE VISIBILITY BECOMING VFR DURING THE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE ALTHOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 305 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN KY THIS AFTERNOON AND A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OR SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY AT TIMES COVERED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY. THIS INDICATES THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL MOVE NE TO THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE NE ALONG A TRACK CLOSE TO THE I-71 CORRIDOR. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS SHOULD BE ENTERING WESTERN NY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z AND THEN TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCHES IN THE SOUTH TILL ABOUT 10Z WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF FORECAST AREA UNTIL ABOUT 16Z WEDNESDAY. SE PART OF CWA HAS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. BY 00Z THURSDAY...KATRINA WILL BE WELL TO OUR NE AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY BUT DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH DYNAMICS OR MOISTURE TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION. SO...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO MAV. LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... FOR FRIDAY...A WEAK BNDRY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...GFS TIME HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE...SO WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY AS WELL AT THIS POINT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER...AND THEN MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. LOOKING AT MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE...HIGH AND LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ 560 FXUS64 KBMX 310008 AFDBMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 708 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE... AT 00Z THE FEW SHOWERS IN ALABAMA...ONE IN SHELBY COUNTY AND ONE ON THE BLOUNT/ST CLAIR LINED ARE DISSIPATING. THESEA BREEZE FRONT IS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE INTO PIKE AND BARBOUR COUNTIES BUT WILL ALSO DISIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO MAINLY ADD PATCHY DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHTS. DOWNSTREAM WINDS ARE ARE CALM AND SKIES ARE CLEAR. MAY NEED A DENSE FOG ADVIOSORY AND WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS SITUATION EVOLVE. ALSO MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. && $$ 80 408 FXUS66 KMTR 310009 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA 509 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...ITS A BEAUTIFUL AFTN ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH ABSOLUTELY NO CLOUDS ANYWHERE...NOT EVEN OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HAVENT HAD A DAY LIKE THIS THE ENTIRE MONTH AND WE MAY NOT HAVE HAD ONE SINCE JUNE. WITH ONLY A VERY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW MIDAFTN TEMPS WERE FAIRLY ISOTHERMAL OVER THE REGION WITH MID 80S TO LOWER 90S IN MOST PLACES. IT WAS A LITTLE COOLER AT THE BEACHES BUT EVEN THERE MOST SPOTS REACHED WELL INTO THE 70S...IT WAS EVEN 73 AT HALF MOON BAY. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AT 2 PM SHOWED THE OFFSHORE TREND... ESPECIALLY THE WMC-SFO GRADIENT WHICH REVERSED DRAMATICALLY FROM 7.7 MB ONSHORE AT THAT TIME YDA TO 8.3 MB OFFSHORE TDA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILT STRONGLY INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF YDAS UPPER TROF PASSAGE. THIS IS RIGHT ON SCHEDULE...USUALLY THESE STRONGER TROFS START MOVING THRU THE AREA ABOUT SEP 1. SFO-SAC WAS ONLY 1.1 ONSHORE AT 2 PM...DOWN FROM 2.8 YDA. HOWEVER...CHANGES ARE IN THE WORKS AND THIS IS ALREADY REFLECTED IN DECREASING N-S GRADIENTS. ACV-SFO WAS 4.9 MB N-S...RESPECTABLE BUT DOWN FROM 6.2 MB YDA. SFO- SMX WAS ALSO DOWN...TO 1.5 FROM 1.9. THE PT ARENA-PIEDRAS BLANCAS GRADIENT WAS ALSO DECREASING...IT WAS 1.9 MB N-S AT 1 PM COMPARED WITH 3.3 YDA. THE WEAKENING N-S GRADIENTS HERALD THE EVENTUAL END OF THE COASTAL WARM SPELL. WE SHOULD STILL HAVE CLEAR SKIES TNGT BUT THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COASTAL SEABREEZE WILL BE STRONGER AND EARLIER ON WED THAN TDA...RESULTING IN COOLING NEAR THE OCEAN. WITH THE AIR ALOFT ACTUALLY WARMING A LITTLE MORE...INLAND TEMPS SHOULD BE AS WARM OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TDA. THE ETA FORECASTS THE STRATUS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WED NIGHT. A COUPLE DAYS AGO THE MODEL WAS FORECASTING A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF STRATUS UP THE COAST BUT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE CRUD WILL SIMPLY DEVELOP WED NIGHT AND EDGE UP TO THE COAST IN THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR COOLING OVER THE ENTIRE DISTRICT ON THU WITH TEMPS COOLING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL. THE ETA FORECASTS THE STRATUS TO COME INLAND THU NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF DEEPENS A LITTLE OVER OUR REGION AND THE ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES FAIRLY STRONG. THE GFS THEN KEEPS THIS PATTERN IN PLACE THRU THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WHICH WOULD GIVE US TEMPS AROUND NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW WITH FAIRLY EXTENSIVE STRATUS. HOWEVER...THE EURO FORECASTS HIGHER 500 MB HEIGHTS SUN/MON WITH STRONGER RIDGING OVER THE SWRN U.S...AND THAT MODEL WOULD KEEP OUR TEMPS AT NORMAL OR A LITTLE ABOVE. A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS KEEPS THE WX RIGHT NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AND THAT SEEMS THE BEST SOLUTION FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...THE COAST REMAINS CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. VFR CONDS LOOK TO PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS NOT LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE COAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 20-60 NM OUT. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: MARKKANEN MARINE/AVIATION: SELLERS/WEAGLE NOAA'S NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO 561 FXUS65 KTFX 310012 AFDTFX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 618 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED TO THE EAST AND A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE ZONES. CLEARING SKIES AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS DIP COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA MAY SEE NEAR RECORD LOWS. THE AIRMASS BEGINS ANOTHER WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY...AND WITH CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS THE FORECASTS REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE ZONES ON THURSDAY AND THE FLOW ALOFT SWITCHES TO THE SOUTHWEST. WEAK INSTABILITY RETURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY AND CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. ZELZER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. MOISTURE AND ANY TYPE OF FORCING IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AN UPPER TROF BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS PERIOD DETRACT FROM FORECAST CONFIDENCE. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE AND A COMPROMISE SOLUTION OF A WEAK...RELATIVELY DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING...COOLING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR...OR A LITTLE BELOW...SEASONAL AVERAGES. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES. EK && .AVIATION... UPDATED 0018Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN TWO LINES...ONE FROM CTB TO GTF AND THE OTHER FROM HVR TO SE FERGUS COUNTY WILL GRADUALL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. EXPECT FEW-SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BLANK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 43 76 47 81 / 10 0 0 0 CTB 43 72 45 78 / 10 0 0 10 HLN 42 77 47 82 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 34 75 40 82 / 10 0 0 0 WEY 30 65 30 73 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 34 75 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 45 76 47 83 / 10 0 0 10 LWT 41 73 43 79 / 10 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS 835 FXUS61 KRLX 310013 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 813 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .AVIATION... TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA IS NOW CENTERED OVER SRN IN AND IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD THROUGH OHIO TONIGHT. THE SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW INTO THE STORM HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE REGION IN VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS. AS THE CENTER CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PERSISTENT RAIN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN BANDS. IN THESE BANDS COULD SEE MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER ABOUT 7Z...THE CHANCES FOR PCPN GO DOWN FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS PKB WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF KATRINA AT THAT TIME. ON THE BACK SIDE OF KATRINA...THE CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO MVFR RANGE AROUND 2000 FT...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OVER NRN KY NOW. THESE CEILIING SHOULD HANG THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT AND CLEAR FROM SW TO NE AS KATRINA PULLS NORTHWARD INTO NW PA AND SWRN NY. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 225 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... LATEST MESOANALYSIS ILLUSTRATES 0-3KM SRH AND 0-6KM WEAKENING A TOUCH...BUT NUMBERS STILL FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD SUPERCELLS. WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE INCREASING MUCAPES...ATMS CONTS TO BCM RIPE FOR TSTM DVLPMNT IN WW761. KATRINA PASSES TO OUR NW TNGT...WHICH BRINGS AN END TO QPF TWRD DAWN OUTSIDE THE MTNS. IN THE MEANTIME...DOWNSLOPING IN STRENGTHENING SE WINDS HAS ALLOWED SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SRN COAL FIELDS TO SHOOT UP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S. COMBINE THAT WITH A SFC WIND SHIFT LINE ALONG THE OH RVR S INTO ERN KY /TN...AIDS IN DEVELOPMENT OF TRW. TSTMS SHALL WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF THE SUN. COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z WED...HOWEVER MID LVL TROF SWINGING THROUGH COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OPTED FOR HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER IN THE EVENING WITH CHC ELSW...THEN CHC OR LKLY AFT MDNGT CWA WIDE. GUIDANCE CLUSTERED NICELY OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER OPTED FOR WARMER MET NUMBERS PER SFC PARCEL TRAJ OUT OF GA. SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK TO PULL OUT WEDNESDAY. WEAK WAVE BEHIND THE REMNANTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT THEN QUICK DRYING OUT AFTER WAVE PASSES WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRY AIR MOVING IN AND GENERAL CHANGE OF MEAN FLOW WILL MEAN DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO TAPPING OF MOISTURE THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HYDROLOGY... CANCELLED FLOOD WATCH FOR DICKENSON...BUCHANAN IN SW VIRGINIA AND FAYETTE...LOGAN..MCDOWELL..MINGO..NICHOLAS..POCAHONTAS..RALEIGH.. WEBSTER AND WYOMING COUNTIES IN WEST VIRGINIA. KEPT REST OF HSA IN FFA UNTIL 8AM WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE HEAVIEST AND STEADY RAINS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE HSA. MAIN THREAT IS FOR SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IF RAINS ARE NOT REALIZIED...THERE IS THE POSSIBLITY OF ENDING THE FFA EARLIER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 122 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) AVIATION (18Z TO 18Z)... VFR TO MVFR CONDS DOMINATE THE FCST AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVE SLOWLY NE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR EASTERN FOUR TERMINALS IS STRONG TSTMS GIVEN LOTS OF SHEAR IN THE ATMS. TO THE WEST...STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WL BRING MVFR TO PKB AND HTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFT MIDNIGHT...MVFR OVC CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH LINGERING RW IN THE MTNS. WET WX SHALL STOP IN THE MTNS BY 9Z. STRATUS (OVC015- 025) IS PROGGED DURING THE PREDAWN HRS INTO THE MID MRNG HRS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AN LOTS OF LLVL MSTR AT ALL SITES. CIGS LIFT TO VFR BY 15Z. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1208 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE WEAK FLOW THE PRESS FOR WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP SO WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM EXTREME HOT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED. NO GOOD TAPPING OF GULF MOISTURE EITHER. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLOOD WATCH FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-026>032-039-040-047 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. OH...FLOOD WATCH FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. KY...FLOOD WATCH FOR KYZ101>103-105 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. VA...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...ESS 743 FXUS62 KFFC 310027 AAB AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 815 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE...WILL TAKE OUT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. NORTH HAS STABILIZED WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 60 DEW POINTS WORKING INTO THE AREA. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. SOME SMALL TWEAKS TO WINDS TO LOWER A LITTLE AS GRADIENT RELAXES OVERNIGHT. AS MENTIONED IN THE AVIATION PORTION...MAY SEE SOME MVFR FOG...BUT WINDS SHOULD HOLD UP ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM FROM GOING MUCH BELOW 3 MILES. THUS WILL NOT MENTION MORNING FOG IN THE ZONES. && .SHORT TERM... KATRINA DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION...BUT STILL PACKING A PUNCH AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE-OHIO VALLEY REGION. WINDS DIMINISHING AND WILL CANCEL WIND ADVISORY WITH ISSUANCE OF NEW ZONES. SPIRAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA AFFECTING MAINLY EAST SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NEED TO HOLD ON TO LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MODELS HOLDING ON TO SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND HINTING AT WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY..WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF OUR AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WEAK TROUGH APPEARS TO LINGER JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS MAINTAIN DRYING OVER OUR AREA AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST. .LONG TERM... UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. LATEST RUN OF GFS HINT AT UPPER RIDGE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN SOME TUESDAY...ALLOWING A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO COME ONSHORE SPREADING CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY INTO EAST SECTS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. && .AVIATION... AS KATRINA PULLS AWAY WE ARE LEFT WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD TREND SLOWLY TOWARD A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT. THIS IS A TREND TOWARD DRIER AIR. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A LITTLE LIFT AND SHOULD SUPPORT ONE OR TWO SCATTERED LAYERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS GRADIENT RELAXES THERE SHOULD BE DECOUPLING AT SOME POINT TONIGHT. WITH THE SOILS WET WE MAY SEE A SHALLOW LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE TRY TO SATURATE TOWARD SUNRISE. EXPECTING SOME MVFR FOG. THERE MAY EVEN BE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYER FORM BETWEEN 5 HUNDRED AND 15 HUNDRED FEET. BUT THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO LAST LONG AS MIXING RESUMES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATLANTA 71 87 69 89 / 20 20 10 10 ATHENS 69 91 66 90 / 20 20 10 5 GAINESVILLE 69 87 65 88 / 20 20 10 10 ROME 71 90 65 93 / 20 20 20 10 COLUMBUS 72 92 71 93 / 20 20 10 5 MACON 74 92 67 92 / 30 20 10 5 .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 15 559 FXUS63 KLOT 310034 AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 715 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 ...PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE... RAIN FROM KATRINA BEEN HOLDING THIS MORNING JUST SE OF BENTON CTY IN WITH CHI OVER ENTIRE AREA ALONG WITH A LITTLE BAND OF CU. NAM HAD ITS USUAL INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS BUT DOES NOT SEEM TO MATTER FOR OUR FORECAST AS ALL MODELS SIMILIAR. BUT NAM JUST HORRIBLE WITH ITS QPF FORECAST TO OUR SE. GFS LOOKS BEST AND FOLLOWED. EVEN THE OLD NGM BETTER THAN THE NAM. NAM TRULY TORTURED TODAY. AFTER KATRINA EXITS NEXT THING TO WATCH IS TROF COMING FROM NW. THIS SHOULD PASS N OF AREA WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WITH ITS DYNAMICS SO NO PRECIP IN FORECAST. AFTER THAT RIDGE BUILDS OVER PLAINS PUSHING JET BACK IN S CANADA. WITH 588 COUNTOUR COMING OVERHEAD TEMPS TO WARM AGAIN AT LEAST INTO THE L80S, MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE MORE SO WILL UP LATER PERIOD TEMPS. SHOULD BE LARGE DIURNAL RANGE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LO DPS. WILL HOLD ONTO SMALL CHANCE PRECIP XTRM SE THIS EVE, PROBABLY JUST BENTON COUNTY. ALL OTHER PERIODS DRY. AF && .AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z... MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE ON WINDS AND POSSIBILITY OF ANY LOW CLOUDS REFORMING OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF KATRINA IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY WITH STRONGEST 3-HR SFC PRESSURE FALLS NOW ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. AS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ACROSS ORD/MDW/GYY THROUGH 04Z...AND WILL OMIT GUSTS ACROSS DPA/RFD. PRECIP SHIELD WHICH HAD NUDGED INTO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS NOW BEGINNING TO RECEDE AS NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK THIS EVENING TO A DRIER NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY. IN TERMS OF SKY COVER...MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT TERMINALS TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SCATTERING TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING. NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT WITHIN LOWEST 25-50 MB WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME IN THIS SCENARIO GIVEN MOIST LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY THIN AND SO FOR NOW WILL TREND TAFS TO MENTION OF JUST FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 800 FT AFT 18Z. DIURNAL MIXING EXPECTED TO KEEP WINDS UP AROUND 10 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY FROM 340-360 DEGREES WITH SCT CU DECK EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING BASED AROUND 3-4K FEET. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING JUST OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. NDM && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LK MI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IL IN SHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. $$ 152 FXUS64 KMRX 310036 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 836 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...TORNADO WATCH AND LAKE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRING AT 9 PM. WINDS STILL GUSTY...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL VALLEY AND NO DOUBT SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. WILL ALLOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE...BUT WILL STILL MENTION SOME GUSTY WINDS IN ZFP. STILL SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY NORTHERN TWO THIRDS...BUT COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP HAS BEEN LIMITED. PLAN TO LOWER POPS...AND SPEED UP THE DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER A BIT. WILL ALSO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS. SOME OF THESE CHANGES WILL REQUIRE TWEAKS INTO TUE FOR CONSISTENCY. UPDATE OUT AS CLOSE TO 9 PM AS POSSIBLE. && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC......NONE. TN......NONE. VA......NONE. && $$ LDW 317 FXUS62 KTBW 310047 AFDTBW WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 845 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 DISCUSSION...THE SUNCOAST REMAINS SOUPY AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPS A SHADE LESS THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...LOW TO MID 80S...BUT DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 IN MOST AREAS. WEATHERWISE...ONE LAST THIN AND SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSING NORTH PINELLAS COUNTY...OTHERWISE MAIN ACTION IS EXITING THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE REST OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAS BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. FOR THE OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL TAIL OFF AND BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH AT THE SURFACE. SIMILAR TO THIS TIME MONDAY...THE GFS STILL PUMPING DEEP MOISTURE AND VERTICAL MOTION BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK...WHICH AGAIN LOOKS OVERDONE GIVEN WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LACK OF ANY LOW OR MID LEVEL JET. 18Z NAM SEEMS MORE REALISTIC WITH ISOLATED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTH SUNCOAST...PERHAPS EXTENDING INLAND THROUGH LEVY COUNTY...AFTER 09Z. FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE ONCE AGAIN BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVERAGE...HOLDING MENTION TO IMMEDIATE COAST MAINLY FROM PINELLAS COUNTY NORTHWARD. ZONE UPDATE BY 930 PM. && .MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. LATEST SEA HEIGHT AT BUOY 36 DOWN UNDER 6 FEET AND SEE NO REASON FOR THIS TREND NOT TO CONTINUE. THUS...HAVE DROPPED THE LAST ADVISORY RELATED TO KATRINA WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN FORTHCOMING UPDATE. && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE && $$ 88/GOLDSMITH 805 FXUS64 KHUN 310049 AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 750 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE... WILL BE DROPPING WIND ADVISORY AS LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SFC AND LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE LOWERED TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT AS PER CURRENT SURFACE OBS ACROSS REGION AND TRENDS...THAT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. WILL BE MAKING THESE CHANGES AND ALSO WILL BE DROPPING PRECIP CHANCES AS LAST OF -SHRA IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS OF 0030Z. WILL KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST. .PREV DISCUSSION... A CENTER OF CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA CONTINUED TO SPIN EAST OF BOWLING GREEN...AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A CANOPY OF EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WAS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP SOUTH OF A DYERSBURG...SAVANNAH...BIRMINGHAM....AND ANNISTON LINE. SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. 3 PM TEMPS UNDER GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 70S MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 70S NW ALABAMA. A BIG SHORT TIME ISSUE ARE THE WINDS. MSAS INDICATED A NEARLY 6 MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO KATRINA'S REMAINS WHICH HELPED TO PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE VALLEY. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING... BEFORE WINDS DROP OFF TO THE 10-15 MPH OVERNIGHT. THUS WE HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY UNTIL 8 PM CENTRAL TIME. OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. NE ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENN ARE MORE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN. MODEL STABILITIES DO NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE TO MUCH T-STORM DEVELOPMENT... WITH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR WEDNESDAY...A DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPS WARMING BACK IN TO THE 80S...LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 80 ACROSS PARTS OF NW ALABAMA. LIGHTER WINDS...LONGER LATE SUMMER NIGHTS...AND A STILL WET GROUND FROM THE RECENT RAINS MEANS FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE FROM THE NGM/GFS WERE NOT PICKING UP ON IT YET. IS SOMETHING FOR FUTURE SHIFTS TO CONTEMPLATE...AS DID NOT PUT FOG IN THE GRIDS THIS ISSUANCE. NOT MANY CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED. THE GFS AND OTHER LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THUS SEASONALLY WARM EARLY SEPT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE 80S...AND NIGHT TIME LOWS COOLING INTO THE 60S. SOME SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THOSE WIND SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT THIS UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... HUNTSVILLE 70 87 66 89 / 20 10 0 0 SHOALS 69 88 64 90 / 20 10 0 0 CULLMAN 70 87 65 90 / 20 10 0 0 FAYETTEVILLE 67 85 65 88 / 30 10 0 0 FORT PAYNE 69 85 65 87 / 20 10 0 0 && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ TROUTMAN 498 FXUS61 KPHI 310057 AAA AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 900 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE PACKAGE TO LOWER POPS TO CHANCE ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED RADAR TRENDS. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL PA AND THESE ARE MOVING TO THE NE. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED IN NORTHERN VA...THIS AREA WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH. ELSEWHERE, THERE WERE JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION, WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH AND WEST SO HAVE LEFT LIKELY POPS IN THOSE AREAS. 425 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM-MESOSCALE DISCUSSION(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... A RATHER COMPLEX SCENARIO SHAPING UP TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY, REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. WITH THE TRACK OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, OUR ENTIRE CWA IS PLACED ON ITS EAST SIDE, OR WARM SECTOR. INITIALLY THE WIND FIELDS, BASED OFF OF THE 12Z LWX, WAL, AND OKX SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY WEAK. HOWEVER, SOUNDINGS FURTHER TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SHOW AN INCREASING WIND FIELD AS THESE LOCATIONS ARE CLOSER TO THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA. THE KDIX VWP AS OF 19Z SHOWS RATHER WEAK WINDS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE EVIDENT OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY. THEREFORE, THE WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR CWA. AN EXAMINATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET (925-850 MB), BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE VERY CLOSE WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURE. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 40-45 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT, THE MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER WARM, THUS WEAKER LAPSE RATES. THERE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE EVENING. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY CONVECTION WHICH FORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FORMING IN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORM IN LINES/BANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF KATRINA AND THE LARGE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE CENTER WILL ALLOW OUR CWA TO BE IN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WEDNESDAY. SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 120-250 M2/S2 (EAST TO WEST). THE HELICITY VALUES APPEAR TO PEAK HOWEVER DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING. OF COURSE THE FORECAST CAPE IS BASED ON AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE, WHICH SHOULD OCCUR, BUT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY WILL BE KEY. MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUPERCELLS, ESPECIALLY WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. WHILE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME MIDLEVEL STORM ROTATION, THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER, SOME WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR DUE TOO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND THE FASTER MOTION OF THE STORMS, ESPECIALLY IF HIGHER CAPE VALUES MATERIALIZE. STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITHIN ANY SUPERCELLULAR STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME (SMALL) HAIL. IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, NEAR THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AND GREATER SHEAR AXIS. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT TEND TO FORM, MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LINE/BAND, THEREFORE A BRIEF TORNADO SPIN UP CAN OCCUR QUICKLY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... CDFNT MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN ON NW WINDS. A SECOND DRY FRONT SWINGS THROUGH BY SUNDAY. WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE REFRESHING. && .AVIATION... CONDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING AT THE TAF SITES SUCH THAT NOW MOST ARE VFR OR MVFR FOR CIGS. EXPECT CONDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. SHWRS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DVLP BUT SHOULD INCRS IN COVERAGE THIS AFTN AS THE ATMOS CONTS TO DE-STABILIZE. WE EXPECT SHWRS WILL CONT WELL INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT AS RMNTS OF KATRINA MOVE CLOSER. SFC WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCRG FROM THE SOUTH. CIGS WILL LIKELY GO DOWN TO IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT BUT VSBYS SHOULD BE LESS RESTRICTIVE...GENLY MVFR. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL PASS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...WIND GUSTS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY THURSDAY AS KATRINA MOVES AWAY. NO OTHER PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... FFG HAS NUDGED UPWD AGN AS ALL COUNTIES ARE AOA 3"/HR. HVYST PCPN PTNL FROM KATRINA SHLD OCR TUE/TUE NGT AS HER MOISTURE GETS INGESTED INTO THE BROAD SRLY FLOW. WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2"...AT LEAST LOCALIZED AMTS TO 4" RMN WITHIN THE REALM OF PTNL. GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN OF LATE IF ANY FLDG DOES IT OCR...IT WOULD BE MORE OF A SMALLER STREAM CONCERN AND NOT A MAIN STEM ONE. THE EMPHASIS FOR HVYR PCN WITH THE LATEST MDL RUNS RMNS CLSR TO THE JET OVR CANADA AND NEW ENG AND THUS OVR OUR NRN ZONES. WE WILL CONT TO ISSUE THE SPS ABT THE HVY RAIN PTNL. && .MISCELLANEOUS... WAY BACK WHEN ANALUGS ARE US COMPARED THE APR/MAY TEMP COUPLET AND SAW HOW THE ENSUING SUMMERS WERE. WELL THIS BUSTED BIGTIME AS THIS SUMMER WILL END (IN PHL) IN THE TOP 10 AND MUCH WARMER THAN ANY OF THE PREV ANALOG YEARS. WE/LL PBLY GET MORE MID SHIFTS BECAUSE OF THIS AND WE WON/T QUIT OUR DAY JOB.. YEAR JUN JUL AUG AVG TEMP TOTAL PCPN 1878 67.4 77.6 73.9 73.0 11.84 1891 71.8 71.9 74.3 72.7 11.38 1915 69.6 76.0 73.1 72.9 15.31 1925 78.0 76.2 74.8 76.3 8.16 1938 71.3 77.2 78.4 75.6 20.68 1945 71.5 76.0 74.1 73.9 16.38 1952 74.7 80.1 75.2 76.7 11.95 1954 72.9 77.9 73.5 74.8 8.69 1958 67.8 77.4 73.4 72.9 17.31 1960 70.6 73.3 74.5 72.8 9.42 1968 71.2 77.1 77.8 75.4 9.13 AVG 71.5 76.4 74.8 74.2 12.75 SUM 2005 SO FAR 74.8 78.9 79.6 77.8 10.16 1971-2000 NML 72.3 77.6 76.3 75.4 12.03 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ZONES ANZ450>455. $$ UPDATE...NIERENBERG OVERVIEW/SHORT TERM/MESOSCALE DISC...GORSE AVIATION/MARINE...COPE HYDROLOGY/LONG TERM/MISCELLANEOUS...GIGI 587 FXUS64 KBRO 310057 AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 800 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 104 DEGREES WAS SET AT BROWNSVILLE TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 100 SET IN 1896. A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 105 DEGREES WAS SET AT HARLINGEN...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 103 SET IN 1930 AND A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 106 DEGREES WAS SET AT MCALLEN TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 100 SET IN 1956. SHRAS/TSRAS W/HVY RAFL DEVELOPED NEAR COASTAL CAMERON LATE THIS PM...BRINGING 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAFL FM BAYVIEW TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. LATEST GFS RUNS PLACES 0.25 ISOHYET OVER RGV FRI AND SAT...NEEDED RAINS POSSIBLE! NO CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT ZFPBRO. && .PREV DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CWA HAS MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR RECORD LEVEL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY. NEAR RECORD LEVEL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEDNESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 6 KNOTS GUSTING TO NEAR 8 KNOTS WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FEET WITH A 10 SECOND PERIOD AT 17 CDT/22 UTC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LOW SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST DURING THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDINESS...WILL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TRIO OF REGIONAL AIRPORTS. HOWEVER...TEMPORARY IFR AND/OR MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT BRO/HRL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 95 78 95 78 / 00 10 00 20 00 BROWNSVILLE 77 101 76 98 77 / 00 10 00 20 00 HARLINGEN 77 101 76 99 77 / 00 10 00 20 00 MCALLEN 78 101 78 100 78 / 00 10 00 20 00 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 103 78 102 78 / 00 00 00 00 00 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 92 81 91 81 / 00 10 00 20 00 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...58 MARINE/AVIATION...66 MESO...MARTINEZ 833 FXUS61 KBGM 310101 AAA AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 900 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURSDAY)... UPDATE... REMNANTS OF KATRINA, CRNTLY OVER THE OH VLY, WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE TO PSN NEAR BUF/LAKE ERIE BY 12Z WED. RDR LOOP SHOWS DEFORMATION ZONE DVLPNG NE OF KATRINA AND WEST OF THE BGM FCST AREA, INAGREEMENT WITH SHORT RNG MDL GUIDANCE. +RA WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NEAR THIS BNDRY. CRNTLY, AREA OF SHRA ASSCD WITH WAA AND ISEN UPGLIDE LIFTING NWD ACRS THE RGN, AND HAS ALREADY EXITED NE PA. TEMPTED TO DROP POPS BACK TO CHC ACRS NE PA BUT BELIEVE THAT WEAKENING -SHRA ASSCD WITH ACTIVITY CRNTLY OVER NRN NA/MD MAY GET INTO NE PA LATER TNGT, SO WILL LEAVE LIKELY POPS THERE. ELSEWHERE, LIKELY TO CAT POPS ACRS UPSTATE NY. XPCT GREATEST PCPN AMTS ACRS THE FINGER LAKES INTO THE WRN MOHAWK VLY, PSBLY 1-2 INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS, BUT THIS AREA HAS SEEN VERY LTL RAIN AND WHAT WE GET TNGT WILL BE BENEFICIAL, GIVEN PERSISTENT DRY PTRN OF LATE. NO PLANS HERE TO RAISE FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME. MAIN THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING FROM TSTMS BUT BEST CHC FOR THAT WILL BE TMRW AND PRBLY OVER ERN ZONES. LATER SHIFTS CAN ASSESS THAT POTNL. FOR TMRW, APPEARS GREATEST SVR WX THREAT WILL BE ACRS THE LOWER SUSQ RGN OF NY, MOST OF NE PA, AND THE WRN CATSKILLS. VERY FVRBL WIND FIELD, PLENTY OF SHEAR AND HELICITY, AND IF WE GET SOME SUNSHINE, THINGS COULD GET VERY INTERESTING. JUST SOME 1ST PD TWEEKS TO GRIDS AND ZONES. PREV AFD BLO... THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL WHILE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO DO WELL WITH THE FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO NHC GUIDANCE, AND THEREFORE CONTINUES TO BE THE PREFERRED MODEL TO FOLLOW FOR THIS FORECAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERRACT MORE WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THE LOW PULLS NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY WEDNESDAY, THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THRU NEW YORK STATE, EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES FROM THE FINGER LAKES, THRU THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION. EXPECT ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF DECENT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING, REACHING FAR NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE FOUND WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. THE AREA WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT (FINGER LAKES TO SOUTHERN TUG HILL) WAS ALSO THE AREA THAT RECEIVED LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM LAST NIGHT'S RAIN. EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS REGION OF AROUND 2 INCHES ARE NOT LIKELY TO CAUSE MANY PROBLEMS WITH SUCH DRY ANTICEDENT CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME, WE ARE NOT PLANNING ON ISSUING ANY FLASH/FLOOD WATCHES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND HIGHLIGHT THE WESTERN ZONES THAT WILL RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT, A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUMP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, BRINGING DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG SHEAR WILL EXIST IN THE WARM SECTOR SE OF THE LOW CENTER, BUT MAIN QUESTION WITH REGARD TO CHC FOR SVR ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. IF WE CAN GET SOME BREAKS IN CLD COVER TO DEVELOP SOME INSTABILITY, THERE MAY BE A CHC FOR SOME SUPERCELL STORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH SO MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL OF COURSE BE ANOTHER CONCERN. PW VALUES INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 2 INCHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WHERE STORMS DEVELOP, A SHORT FUSED FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED FOR AREAS OF MOST CONCERN. THE LOW PULLS AWAY NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH DIMINISHING CHCS FOR SHOWERS. WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARM TEMPS ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM (THU NIGHT - TUESDAY)... THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS RATHER QUIET COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM. AN H5 SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHC POPS NRN ZONES AND DRY ELSEWHERE. UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL MAKE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS NE US WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORING OVER REGION THEN MOVING TO NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUESDAY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH PERIOD WITH MODERATING TEMPS. RRM && .AVIATION (30/18-31/18)... CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE FROM KATRINA MOVES INTO REGION. A BROAD BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 23Z ACROSS NRN TAFS (UCA/SYR), DUE TO BR AND CIGS. BY 06Z, CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TO IFR IN MODERATE RAIN WITH AREAS OF LIFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 14Z, THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL END BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DUE TO HAZE AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. FOR REST OF TAFS (ITH/ELM/BGM/AVP), MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. BY 00Z, WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSISTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS DUE TO MODERATE RAIN FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD MIST AND LOW CIGS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. AFTER 14Z, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR. RRM && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .PA...NONE. $$ 119 FXUS62 KRAH 310103 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 900 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .TORNADO WATCH ALLOWED TO EXPIRE... .SYNOPSIS... LACK OF A FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS EVENING. KATRINA REMNANTS WELL NW OF THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVING RAPIDLY NE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUED TO STABALIZE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. && .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... THE TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. IR SATELLITE INDICATED WARMING CLOUD TOPS. RADAR INDICATED RAPID DECREASING TREND WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION THAT WAS MOVING NE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT. CG LIGHTNING WAS ALSO RAPIDLY DECREASING ALONG THE LINE. LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS DAYTIME HEATING WAS THE DRIVING FORCE FOR SCATTERED STORMS OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON. THIS UPDATE WILL LOWER POP TO CHANCE POP THROUGH 06Z/31 AUGUST THEN TREND POP TO NIL WELL BEFORE DAWN. -PWB && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 235 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... CONVECTION ON THE INCREASE AND THIS WILL BE SHORT. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING AS HEATING OF DAY DISSIPATES. LITTLE CHANGE TO REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD. SMALL RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY DRY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACCEPTED. LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST DOMINATES. A POSSIBLE WEST MOVING WAVE INTRODUCES RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY...BUT LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SO FAR OUT IN TIME. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ON A WEAK COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH READINGS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. AVIATION... HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF SHOWERS IN INT/GSO/FAY WHERE RAIN AT THE SITE OR IN THE VICINITY IS IMMINENT... AND HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF TEMPO SHRA PERIOD FARTHER NORTHEAST AT RDU/RWI. CEILINGS GENERALLY UNLIMITED OR LOW END VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AT GSO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES AND IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN ACCORDANCE WITH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS PLUS UPSTREAM CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHWEST... INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... SHORT TERM...BADGETT 214 FXUS65 KTFX 310103 AFDTFX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 704 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE LASTED LONGER THAN EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL MONTANA AND WILL QUICK UPDATE TO ADD THESE SHOWERS. && .PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 618 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED TO THE EAST AND A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE ZONES. CLEARING SKIES AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS DIP COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA MAY SEE NEAR RECORD LOWS. THE AIRMASS BEGINS ANOTHER WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY...AND WITH CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS THE FORECASTS REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE ZONES ON THURSDAY AND THE FLOW ALOFT SWITCHES TO THE SOUTHWEST. WEAK INSTABILITY RETURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY AND CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. ZELZER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. MOISTURE AND ANY TYPE OF FORCING IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AN UPPER TROF BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS PERIOD DETRACT FROM FORECAST CONFIDENCE. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE AND A COMPROMISE SOLUTION OF A WEAK...RELATIVELY DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING...COOLING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR...OR A LITTLE BELOW...SEASONAL AVERAGES. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES. EK && .AVIATION... UPDATED 0018Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN TWO LINES...ONE FROM CTB TO GTF AND THE OTHER FROM HVR TO SE FERGUS COUNTY WILL GRADUAL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. EXPECT FEW-SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BLANK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 43 76 47 81 / 10 0 0 0 CTB 43 72 45 78 / 10 0 0 10 HLN 42 77 47 82 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 34 75 40 82 / 10 0 0 0 WEY 30 65 30 73 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 34 75 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 45 76 47 83 / 10 0 0 10 LWT 41 73 43 79 / 10 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS 973 FXUS61 KRNK 310106 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 906 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPDATING FCST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE TORNADO WATCH. FURTHER TWEAKED POPS TO LOWER THEM IN THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALSO LOWERED POPS A LITTLE MORE OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCES BY MORNING ON THE WESTERN SLOPES. NO POPS IN TEH SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 745 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) AVIATION... PLENTY OF SHOWERS ARND AT THE MOMENT AND SHUD SEE A GENERAL DECLINE IN THE ACTIVITY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND WE LOSE INSTABILITY. SWLY BREEZE LIKELY TO STAY UP MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS SWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP MVFR CIGS ARND THRU THE NIGHT AT MOST PLACES AND INTO THE MORNING...BUT THIS WILL KEEP FOG TO A MINIMUM. LOOK FOR SKIES TO BREAK OUT TO VFR WITH MIXING BY LATE MORNING WED. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE DAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 628 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPDATING FCST TO ADJUST POPS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY GETTING PRETTY SCTD IN THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHEAST. TOR WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 9PM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 230 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... DAYTIME HEATING IS GENERATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LINES OF TSRA IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. BUT HELICITY AND SHEAR ARE BETTER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. STILL ENOUGH OVERLAP TO KEEP THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER GOING UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA GET PULLED INTO THE MID LATITUDE TROF...THE FEEDER BANDS INTO THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA(CWA). AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...A TRAILING PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE CWA BY THEN. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE MODELS TO KEEP POPS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN STALLED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS COMES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. EVEN THE LOW LEVELS(BELOW 850MB) DRY OUT BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY. EVEN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DROP BELOW ONE INCH. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM HEATING ON THUR. LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... USING GFS AS RECOMMENDED BY NCEP AS A BASE FOR THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES IN THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE EVENTUALLY CLOSES OF AS A LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY TUESDAY. ON SATURDAY CWA IS IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 250MB JET COMING OUT OF THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROF. FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE SURFACE WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE GFS. THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. EXTENDED MODELS AREA ALSO SHOWING A COASTAL TROF FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO FLORIDA BY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS AND LIFT WITH THE FRONT SO NO POPS AS THIS TIME. AFTER SATURDAY CWA IS IN A LESS HUMID AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS. AVIATION... MAINLY HIGH END MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA WHICH WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHORTLY. THINK ONCE CONVECTION FADES THIS EVENING...WILL SEE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG FILL BACK IN GIVEN RESIDUAL LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN WAKE OF KATRINA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W WED AND SLOWLY ACT TO IMPROVE CIGS TOWARD VFR BY MIDDAY AFTER A MVFR/IFR START AT MOST SITES. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ JS 820 FXUS62 KGSP 310107 AFDGSP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 907 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... T.D. KATRINA IN OH RIVER VALLEY. CONVECTIVE BANDS ON E SIDE OF SYSTEM NO E OF AREA...WITH JUST A SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NC FOOTHILLS. WILL MOVE UP TIMING OF DECREASED POPS..AND UPDATE PACKAGE TO ALLOW TORNADO WATCH TO EXPIRE. INCREASED SKY COVER PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPDATED WIND FROM RUC...REDUGIN SPEED A BIT TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATED DEW POINTS FROM ADJUSTED 18Z MAV...RAISING VALUES A DEGREE OR SO TO FIT EVENING OBSERVATIONS. DESPIT CLOUDS...SOME WIND...AND HIGH DEW POINTS...WILL LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO LEE OF MTS PER CURRENT TRENDS AND 18Z GUIDANCE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 527 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPDATING TO CLEAR TORNADO WATCH FROM MTS...AND AREAS SW OF I-26. ORGANIZED CONVECTION NOW LOCATED JUST E OF NC BLUE RIDGE...AND ALONG/E OF I-77 CORRIDOR. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 250 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... WEAK CONFLUENT AXIS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE ACTING ON INCREASING CAPE AND WEAK SHEAR TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE NE WITH MAJORITY OF STORMS EXITING CWFA AROUND 00Z. A COUPLE SEVERE/TORNADIC STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SPC TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT TIL 01Z FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WILL CANCEL FLOOD WATCH AS STORMS MOVING ALONG AND TRANSLATING NE. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE TRAINING AND EASE THE THREAT OF FLOODING. CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED FLOOD PROBLEMS...BUT WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT TERM PRODUCTS. ALSO WILL ALLOW HIGH WIND WARNING/ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 4PM. AFTER 00Z...ATMOSPHERE GRADUALLY STABILIZES EASING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. THUS...WILL LOWER POPS INTO CHANCE CATEGORY AND THEN GENERALLY BELOW 20% AFT 06Z. LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND LOWER INTO A STRATUS DECK BY EARLY MORNING. ALSO...WINDS SLOW TO DEVELOP MUCH OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD REMAIN TO PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FOG THREAT. WINDS VEER MORE WESTERLY WED MORNING AND DOWNSLOPE WILL GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOME CLEARING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR TEMPS. ONLY ISOLATED POPS MENTIONED ON WED OVER MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE OVER WESTERLY UPSLOPE AREAS. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTENING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SW TROUGH THAT APPROACHES THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WILL ONLY FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE TENN BORDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF STRONG SW TROUGHS TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND WILL CARVE OUT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE SUN/MON TIME FRAME...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS ADVERTISES ATLANTIC MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA ON DAY 7...ABOVE A RATHER STRONG SURFACE RIDGE. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE TIMING OF ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA...SO WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ON DAY 7. AVIATION... ALL AIRPORTS WILL HAVE THE THREAT OF CONVECTION UNTIL AROUND 00Z WHEN WEAK CONFLUENT ZONE SHOULD MOVE NE OUT OF THE REGION. INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS UNTIL THEN. AFTER 00Z...LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...SO EXPECT CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGHOUT NIGHT. FORECASTING CEILINGS TO LOWER TO AROUND 1800 FT BY 04Z AND THEN WELL INTO IFR TERRITORY BY 10Z. EXPECT THAT MIXING WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG THREAT...EXCEPT KAVL LIKELY TO LOWER TO AT LEAST 1 MILE. CEILINGS SLOWLY RISE AFT 12Z WED. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JAT 197 FXUS61 KGYX 310109 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 909 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...NO UPDATE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS HAVING A TOUGH TIME SHIFTING E INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT PRECIPITATION IS ON OUR DOORSTEP. LARGE AREA OF -RA/+RA TO OUR WEST. WHILE MUCH OF THIS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED...WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR VERY HIGH POPS OVERNIGHT AND SHRA. LOCALIZED TSRA MAY DEVELOP AS WELL AS WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. VERY WARM AND HUMID TOMORROW. STRENGTH OF LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL DEPEND ON BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY...WITH SPC HIGHLIGHTING THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES SOMEWHERE IN THE NE WEDNESDAY. REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL PROVIDE ROTATION IN THE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...WHICH MAY PRODUCE ISOLD SUPERCELLS. FOR NOW...A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT. HAVE SWITCHED THE Z/R EQUATIONS INTO THE TROPICAL MODE. EXPECT THIS Z/R TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE UPPED WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS ALREADY RUNNING HIGHER THEN GUIDANCE. VERY LITTLE SHEAR IN WIND GRADIENT WITH HEIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAY REACH MINIMAL GALES WEDNESDAY EVENING. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 256 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO A STEADY RAIN OVERNIGHT AS A WARMFRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF KATRINA PUSHES UP FROM THE SOUTH. WILL BE ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES ON THE WAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST AND INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. EXPECT STEADY RAIN TO END DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN SOUTHERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE AND TAPER OFF IN NORTHERN SECTIONS BY EVENING. DEPENDING HOW MUCH SUN DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SOME HEAVY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE LIKELY. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE MAINE THREAT FROM DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO THE MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... FRONT CROSSES FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT...THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TOWARD MORNING. PREFER THE FASTER GFS TIMING WITH THIS FRONT. ETA KEEPS PRECIP GOING ACROSS AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES AREA DURING DAY FRIDAY...THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THESE FRONTS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS THAT FOLLOW THE FRONTS...COULD KICK OFF A SHOWER...WITH THE MOST FAVORED LOCATION IN MTNS...BUT MOST OF AREA WILL REMAIN DRY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR WEEKEND. WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO AREA FOR TUE AND WED. AVIATION...IFR TO LIFR...IMPROVING TO MVFR DURUNG THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS. LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WED NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA FOR WEEKEND. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028 UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MEZ028 UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MEZ027 FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 4 PM THURSDAY. NH...FLOOD WATCH FOR NHZ001>010-013-014 UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ150-170 UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY. && $$ 747 FXUS63 KMQT 310113 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 915 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...00Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT UPR LO NR JAMES BAY DOWNSTREAM OF RDG FM THE PLAINS TO SCNTRL CAN GRDLY LOSING ITS GRIP OVER THE UPR GRT LKS AS HGTS RISING AND LLVL FLOW ARND SFC HI PRES OVER NW ONTARIO BECMG MORE ACYC NNE TO THE N OF REMNANTS OF HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING TOWARD THE LWR LKS. LOCAL 00Z RAOBS/TAMDAR SDNGS SHOW STRG SUBSIDENCE INVRN BTWN H85-725. ALTHOUGH SFC DWPTS GENERALLY ARND 55 ACRS THE UPR LKS/ADJOINING ONTARIO... THE SUB INVRN LYRS APPEAR TO BE A LTL DRIER THAN LAST NGT IN A RELATIVE SENSE. AIR ABV THE INVRN IS QUITE DRY EVERYWHERE. DIURNAL CLD OBSVD OVER MAINLY LAND AREAS IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF DSPTG WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION...JUST A FEW CLD PATCHES OVER LK SUP. NRN FLANK OF HI CLD ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA MOVING SLOWLY NWD THRU CNRTL LK MI/NRN LWR MI. A SHRTWV OVER NE ONTARIO NR JAMES BAY PINWHEELING ARND MAIN CUTOFF APRNT ON WV IMAGERY. MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE CLD TRENDS/POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LO TEMPS. BOTH 21Z RUC/18Z NAM SHOW UPR LO OVER JAMES BAY MOVING VERY LTL OVERNGT...WITH SHRTWV NR JAMES BAY SPINNING ACRS THE ERN ZNS LATE TNGT. BUT SINCE AIRMASS ALF IS SO DRY...EXPECT NO PCPN. A MORE WNW FLOW ALF SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF KATRINA HI CLD TO THE S OF EVEN THE SE ZNS. OF MORE PRESSING CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ST/SC TO DVLP IN THE LLVL NNE FLOW OFF LK SUP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN JUST DOWNWIND OF THE WATER. CONSIDERING HOW HI THE DWPTS ARE EVEN CLOSE TO JAMES BAY...HAVE TO ASSUME SOME SC WL DVLP ACRS AT LEAST THE FVRD UPSLOPE AREAS...A PROCESS THAT WL BE LIMITED BY THE RELATIVELY HI INVRNS OBSVD ARND THE AREA. BOTH NAM/RUC SHOW A FAIRLY STEADY NNE WIND WL BE PRESENT ALL NGT OVER THE ERN ZNS BTWN ONTARIO HI AND FALLING PRES IN THE LWR LKS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA. BEST CHC FOR WINDS TO DECOUPLE IN THIS SCENARIO WL BE OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...WHICH ARE SHELTERED FM THE PREVAILING NNE WIND BY THE HIER TERRAIN CLOSER TO THE SHORE. HAVE OPTED TO DROP FCST LO TEMPS THRU CURRENT DWPTS INTO THE MID/UPR 40S IN THESE COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. FOG FORMATION IS MOST LIKELY IN THESE AREAS THAT WL BE SHELTERED FM THE WIND. REMOVED MENTION OF FOG FM OVER THE LKS AND IN AREAS NR LK SUP AS SFC WATER TEMP 5 OR MORE DEGREES ABV PREVAILING DWPT. KC .LONG TERM... THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY ON WED. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE DAKOTA LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THUS THIS SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN U.P. WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WITH THE INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ALOFT...I WILL NOT RULE IT OUT. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC...WHILE THE WESTERN ONTARIO LOW MOVE LITTLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING AROUND THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THE COLD FRONT WILL EDGE INTO CENTRAL U.P. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE U.P. THUS WITH THE INSTABILITY EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. THE WESTERN ONTARIO MID LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN QUEBEC. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BLANKET THE UPPER GREAT LAKES KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE AND DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. FRONTOGENESIS WILL CREATE COLD FRONT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER SASKATCHEWAN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO MANITOBA ON MONDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY OFF SHORE OF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC STATES. THE HIGH WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION COLD FRONT AND DIVERT IT NORTHEAST. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATE WITH THE FRONT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. DLG && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 896 FXUS63 KGRR 310114 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 915 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE... AT 01Z THE KGRR 88D AND SFC OBS SHOW A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE JUST CLIPPING OUR FAR SE CWA. HOWEVER DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. WE'LL ISSUE A QUICK ZONE UPDATE TO TWEAK POPS DOWN A BIT ACROSS OUR FAR SE CWA SINCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE ISOLATED AT BEST AND STEADY RAIN IS STAYING SE OF OUR AREA. GFS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS THAN THE ETA. OVERALL OUR FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NECESSARY. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE && $$ LAURENS 921 FXUS61 KAKQ 310114 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 914 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPDATED FCST PRODUCTS SENT TO CANCEL TORNADO WATCH AND TO RE-ARRANGE POP CONFIGURATION TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AKQ FORECAST AREA PCPN FREE ATTM BUT REGIONAL RADAR MOSIAC SHOWS ONE CONVECTIVE BAND MOVG THRU BLU RDG WHILE ANTHR MOVG THRU CNTRL NC. WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND LESSENING LTG ACTIVITY CONFIRMS THE EXPECTED WEAKENING TREND AS BNDRY LAYER STABILIZES WITH LOSS OF DYTM HEATING. SEVERE TS/TORNADO THREATS GREATLY DIMINISHED AS WELL. WILL CONT CHC POPS OVRNGT (WITH HIGHEST CHCS INLAND) AS LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND VERTICAL SHEAR LIKELY TO MAINTAIN SOME PCPN THRU THE OVRNGT ACRS CNRTL MID ATLC REGION. OTRW...LTL ADDITIONAL FCST CHGS NEEDED. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 400 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...SCTD SHWRS/ISO TSTMS FINALLY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACRS CNTRL NC/WRN 1/2 VA. TOR WATCH CONTINUES JUST TO WEST OF OUR PIEDMNT CNTYS BUT SO FAR NO WATCH IN AKQ CWA. WINDS ARE GNRLY SE AT SFC...TO SSW AT 900-800 MB. STRGST LOW LVL JET SEGMENT LOOKS TO PUSH ACRS WRN VA ALONG MTNS...JUST BRUSHING THE PIEDMNT CNTYS. THIS IS WHERE BEST SHEAR EXISTS...BUT BEST INSTABLTY RESIDES FARTHER EAST. WE'LL LIKELY SEE SHWRS/ISO TSTMS BECMG MORE NUMEROUS W OF I-95 THRU OVER NXT FEW HRS...JUST CHC/MORE SCTD FARTHER EAST (WHERE DYNAMICS AND LOW LVL CONV ARE WEAKER FARTHER REMOVED FROM TD KATRINA NOW IN KY/SRN IND). RUC SHOWS BEST UPR DIV/LOW LVL CONV COUPLET DRIFTING NWD OVERNGT...SO WILL CONT LKLY POPS ACRS THE NORTH OVERNGT BUT THINK TSTM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE EVENG...ESP WESTERN ZONES. WED/THU...REMANNTS OF KATRINA FCST TO ACCELERATE NEWD INTO NY STATE BY WED AFTN...DRIVING A COLD FRONT THRU MID ATLC WED NGT. OUT AHEAD SW FLOW WILL INCREASE WED BOOSTING TEMPS INTO MID 90S SE VA/NE NC...AROUND 90 NRN AND WEST ZONES. WILL HOLD OFF ON HEAT ADVSRY AS WLY FLOW SHOULD DROP DEW PTS SOMEWHAT IN AFTN...CAPPING HEAT INDICES AT 105 OR LWR. MSTR BECMS MORE LMTD (ESP AFTER ERLY MRNG) AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN ALONG W/ WLY FLOW IN LOW TO MID LVLS. WILL CARRY 20-30 POPS DUE TO STRG DYNAMICS AND MAY SEE SOME ISO SVR IN NRN ZONES DURING AFTN. OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER AIR THEN FILTERS IN WED NGT/THU...W/ DOWNSLOPING KEEPING TEMPS FAIRLY WARM AGAIN THURSDAY...UPR 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS. LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/ OVERALL PATTERN...SHOWING AN UPR TROF NEAR HUDSON BAY W/ STRG CONFLUENCE TO BUILD SFC HIGH PRES INTO THE MIDWEST FRI. BY SUNDAY WK RIDGING BEGINS TO DRIFT INTO THE MIDWEST...SHIFTING THE SFC HIGH INTO THE NE CONUS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRI/SAT...THEN DROP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW LVL FLOW TURNS N TO NE. SOME RETURN MSTR/CSTL TROF LOOKS TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SRN MID ATLC BY LATE MON NGT/TUE. HAVE A DRY FCST FRI THROUGH MONDAY...THEN CHC SOUTH TO SCHC OTHER ZONES FOR PRECIP NEXT TUE. AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. POSSIBLE MVFR IN SHRAS OR ISLTD TSRAS. MARINE...S OR SW WNDS INCRS TO JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA TNGT AND LAST INTO WED NGT...DUE TO KATRINA MOVNG BY TO OUR NW AND N AND PULLING A COLD FRNT ACRS REGION. ONLY GOING WITH SCA FOR SEAS FOR NRN CSTL ZNS TNGT INTO WED NGT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ650 FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM WEDNESDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ652 FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON WEDNESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...CULLEN 099 FXUS64 KJAN 310114 AFDJAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 814 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 .DISCUSSION... A FEW ISOLATED SMALL SHRA CROPPED UP EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM KMEI TO S OF KJAN. JUST ONE SHRA IS LEFT ON THE KMOB 88D. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE ADVANCING E...BUT THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE. WILL LEAVE FG IN THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWING TODAY'S EVAPOTRANSPIRATION LEAVING 70+ DEW POINTS. WILL DOUBLE CHECK THE 00Z MAP ANALYSIS...BUT SEE FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ KULA 684 FXUS62 KJAX 310116 AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 915 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED. WILL THEREFORE LOWER POPS. WILL KEEP 30 PCT GOING OUT TO THE WEST AS CONVECTION MAY GET GOING LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE GULF AND MOVE INLAND. POPS ELSEWHERE WILL BE 20 PCT. WILL SEE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE GULF LATER TONIGHT. && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ PP/JH/PK 743 FXUS62 KEYW 310116 AFDEYW FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 915 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... .CURRENTLY... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ORIENTED FROM THE NW BAHAMAS TO NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS...MAINTAINING A VERY LIGHT WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA. LATEST MARINE-SITE WIND GAUGES SHOW WINDS CALM TO 3 MPH... TENDING SE TO S OVER THE ATLANTIC SIDE AND S OR SW OVER GULF AND BAY SIDE. RADAR REMAINS PRECIPITATION FREE IN THE KEYS AREA...EXCEPT FOR A FEW NEWLY-DEVELOPED IN THE OUTER FLORIDA STRAITS WELL SOUTH OF DRY TORTUGAS. EVENING SOUNDINGS REVEAL MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE OVER THE KEYS (PW=2.09 INCHES) BUT WITH SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LEVELS JUST ABOVE THE GROUND TO 15 THSD FT. SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND HAD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED LITTLE...AND ARE FADING OUT NOW. .FORECAST... OVERNIGHT...NO UPDATE TO PUBLIC ZONES IS NEEDED. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS WARRANTED DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE MAY BE A FEW BOUNDARIES OVERNIGHT THAT COULD FOCUS SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT OTHERWISE THERE IS NO WELL DEFINED WIND OR DISTURBANCE PATTERN TO SET OFF CONVECTION. && .MARINE... A LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL STAY WITH US TONIGHT AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERNIGHT WINDS OUGHT TO BE GENERALLY UNDER 10 KT...EVEN CALM AT TIMES...AND MAINLY FROM THE SSE ON OCEAN SIDE WATERS...S OR SW ON THE BAY AND GULF. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE KEYS. && .AVIATION... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE KMIA-KEYW TWEB ROUTE AND AT THE KEYW AND KMTH ISLAND TERMINALS. A LOW LEVEL RIDGE APPEARS TO BE VERY NEAR THE KEYW AND KMTH ISLAND TERMINALS. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG THE ENTIRE TWEB ROUTE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE MAINLAND AFTER 17Z. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS RESPECTIVELY. && .EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/MARINE.............CLIFF B. AVIATION/NOWCASTS.........FUTTERMAN 288 FXUS63 KAPX 310120 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 919 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN OVER FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN ONTARIO. 995MB TD KATRINA WAS NEARING CINCY FROM THE SW...WITH ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH CLOUDS (MAINLY THIN) ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MI. ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM APN TO CAD...ALONG MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE BETWEEN UPPER LOWS NEAR SOUTHERN JAMES BAY AND KATRINA/S REMNANT. THESE SHOWERS HAVE FIZZLED...THE ONLY REMNANT BEING PATCHY MVFR CIGS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. CLOUD/TEMP/FOG TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN KATRINA DEBRIS CLOUDS...AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY EXCEPT IN THE CONVECTIVE MIXED LAYER (PER 00Z APX SOUNDING). DIURNAL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS FORMING OVERNIGHT. WITH NE/NNE 1000-850MB FLOW...MOST FAVORED LOCALES FOR ANY STRATUS WOULD BE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL/NE LOWER MI. OTHERWISE...PATCHY MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WITH MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE STRAITS NORTHWARD. WILL ADD A MENTION OF FOG FOR THESE MOSTLY CLEAR AREAS...TEMP/DP SPREADS ARE ALREADY CLOSING NICELY. MIN TEMPS LOOK DECENT GIVEN PERSISTENCE/DEW POINTS/EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED. ZOLTOWSKI && .PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 400 PM TUE AUG 30... 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS KATRINA REMAINS AT 992 MB CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. VISIBLE AND WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE LARGE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US WITH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOSTLY SUNNY. AROUND THE CWFA SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKIES ARE REPORTED AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH LAKE SHORES CLEAR. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UPPER PLAINS/MINNESOTA REGION WILL BUILD FURTHER AS IT SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD AS KATRINA REMAINS SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVELS (UNDER 900 MB) WILL BE QUITE MOIST...HOWEVER MIXING SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE AS THE SURFACE INVERSION WILL BE NEARLY NON EXISTENT. WITH THE REMAINS OF KATRINA PULLING EASTWARD WILL KEEP THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWFA AS WV IMAGERY INDICATES PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THIS REGION WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY CURRENTLY INDICATING SOME DEFORMATION ZONE CLOUDINESS MAKING IT TO HTL-OSC AREA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTA/S. KATRINA REMNANTS WILL HAVE MOVED WELL TO THE EAST (FINGER LAKES OF NEW YORK) WITH NORTHERLY FLOW TRYING TO PUSH SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE CWFA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SLIGHT DRYING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE RIDGE PUSHES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA. WILL EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S WILL BE SURPASSED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE (TO AROUND 10 KFT) TO PRODUCE A PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TOWARD EVENING AS THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE BECOMES GREATEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORE WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE SLOWING THE WARMING. MJP WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...KATRINA WILL BE WELL EAST OF NRN MICHIGAN AS IT GETS ENGULFED IN THE PESKY/STAGNANT UPPER LOW SPINNING AROUND JAMES BAY. A SECOND UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE WILL BE RACING ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...ZIPPING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE FAR NE CONUS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC RIDGING GETS PUSHED OUT OF HERE BY FIRST QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS BY THURSDAY MORNING. A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES WITH SECOND COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS QUICK OUT OF THE WNW WITH WEAKER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD. MAINLY A SKY AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS TIME FRAME. AFTER THE DIURNAL CUMULUS DISSIPATES IN THE EVENING SKIES SHOULD GO CLEAR IN THE EVENING. BAND OF 50-60% H8-H5 RH AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ALLOWING STRONGER -DIVQ TO SWEEP ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN UPPER. THE MOISTURE IS MAINLY ALL BELOW 600MB AND IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. COULD STILL SEE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS QUICKLY TRYING TO WORK THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN AS THE FORCING IS MODERATE TO STRONG...BUT BEST OPTION IS TOO LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE FACT THAT THINGS ARE DRYING AS IT TRACK EAST. WOULD NOT BE MUCH QPF AT ALL...MAY A FEW HUNDREDTHS IF SHOWERS WERE TO OCCUR. THIS FRONT EXITS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE SECONDARY SHOT OF FORCING AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES MIDNIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING. 85KT JET MAX AND -2C H7 COLD POOL SEEN WITH THIS WAVE...BUT SAME STORY OF MAYBE LIMITED H8-H5 MOISTURE ONLY REACHING 60% ACROSS WHITEFISH BAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THIS IS BEST LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THE SCENARIO LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS OVER A LARGER AREA. THE MAIN WEATHER MAY END UP BEING SKY AND WINDS. AFTER INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING...H8 WINDS KICK UP TO 25-30KTS AND WE COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE STRAITS WHERE WEST WINDS COULD SEE A LOCAL INCREASE. THESE GUSTY WINDS MAY EVEN PERSIST OVER THE WARMER WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WHILE H9-H8 RH INCREASES TO 70-80% BRINGING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN CWA. WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS CLINGING TO THE CWA FRIDAY...SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FROM STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE AS FLOW TURNS NW. HOWEVER...SFC HIGH WILL BE TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN AN OVERALL SLACKENING GRADIENT. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FAST NW FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY WITH SFC HIGH STILL TRYING TO MAKE IT INTO NRN MICHIGAN. SFC HIGH DOES SETTLE IN BY SATURDAY EVENING AND WE SHOULD SEE A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER A LARGE AREA OF INTERIOR LOCALES. WAA CLOUDS TRY TO SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN NO PRECIP EXPECTED OR INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST. MID LEVEL RIDGING INCREASES EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AND A BIT OF A WARM UP ANTICIPATED...BUT PLAYING THINGS NOT SO WARM JUST YET. COULD SEE 80S NOT TOO FAR OUT OF THE PICTURE...BUT WILL HOLD WITH THE MID-UPPER 70S. SMD && .APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 787 FXUS64 KMEG 310122 AFDMEG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 821 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 ...DISCUSSION... WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AS KATRINA MOVES TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH HAS WEAKENED DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. $$ AC 810 FXUS61 KCLE 310129 AAA AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 930 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...LOW ON SCHEDULE BETWEEN CVG AND CMH. HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE NW OF THE LOW. KEPT THUNDER IN THE AREAS EAST OF THE LOW AS THAT SHOULD BE THE MOST UNSTABLE AREA. OTRW NO CHANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. FLOOD WATCH CONTINEUS. %% .AVIATION (00Z-00Z)... WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TRY AND PIN DOWN THE HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN AS THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR BANDS TO FILL IN AS THEY ROTATE NORTHWARD. ANOTHER SURGE OF HEAVIER RAIN COMING NORTH FROM CENTRAL OHIO. HEAVIEST RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY FROM NR CLE SW TOWARD FDY/MNN OVERNIGHT AS THIS SHOULD BE THE AREA OF BEST CONFLUENCE ALOFT BUT HIGHER ELEVATION TAFS CAK MFD AND YNG WILL LIKELY CONT TO SEE OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL PERHAPS EARLY MORN WHEN THEY MAY BRIEFLY SLIP INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVLOP MAINLY IN THE COOL NNE FLOW AND THE WRAP AROUND WNW FLOW. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS CURRENLTY SOUTH OF LOW AND THESE MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE NE AND PERSIST ACROSS NE OH/NW PA INTO WED AFTERNOON BEFORE ENTIRE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT. ONCE RAIN ENDS VSBY SHOULD BECOME VFR. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY)... GFS MODEL APPEARS TO STILL HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA AS THE MODEL DEPICTED THE PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA MUCH SOONER AND THE BEST ORIENTATION COMPARED TO THE ETA AND NGM SOLUTIONS. WILL STICK WITH THE GFS SOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. REMNANTS OF KATRINA MAKING ITS WAY NORTH AND THEN EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT FROM GFS AND RUC INDICATE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR FROM FINDLAY ACROSS THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES UP TO ERIE PENNSYLVANIA AFTER 00Z. THIS BAND WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 09Z TONIGHT. CENTER OF KATRINA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND BE OVER ERIE BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING AT WHICH TIME THE PRECIPITATION WILL START TO TAPER OFF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. DUE TO THE AXIS OF THE HEAVY RAIN EXTENDING FURTHER WEST...WE WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FLOOD WATCH. WE NEED ABOUT 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN 6 HOURS TO CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THE NEW WATCH AREA BUT WE FEEL THAT MAIN THREATS OF FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN THE URBAN AREAS OF FINDLAY AND TOLEDO. A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT EXISTS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SECONDARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION LOCATED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING FORCING DEW POINTS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 70. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FEED THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS MUCH LOWER AND THREAT OF FLOODING HAS A GREATER POTENTIAL IN BOTH RURAL AND URBAN AREAS. THE THREAT OF WIND WILL BE DIMINISHED AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA AFFECT THE AREA. WILL MENTION WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 30 MPH OVERNIGHT. 925 MB WINDS INDICATE 30 KNOTS WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM AND THESE STRONGER WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EXTEND DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH CONVECTION. REMNANTS QUICKLY PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY TAKING THREAT OF RAIN WITH IT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND FORCE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE 70S DURING THE DAY AND 50S AT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND FORCE SOME COOLER AIR SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING AND ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA AS WELL WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTING UP FOR A PLEASANT HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. I MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO THE TEMPERATURES TO MAKE THEM SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS TRENDING TOWARD SOME SLOW AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND COLD POOL WILL BRUSH BY THE AREA. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...FLOOD WATCH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTRN THRU WED AFTRN. .PA...FLOOD WATCH ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES THIS AFTRN THRU WED AFTRN. $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...KIELTYKA SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...KOSARIK 802 FXUS64 KEWX 310130 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 830 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE...NO UPDATE PLANNED TONIGHT AS PREVIOUS FORECAST ENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT 00Z (7 PM CDT) AND DAYTIME CONVECTION HAS INDEED ENDED. HIGH PRESSURE..LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES LOOK GOOD FOR BRINGING LOWS DOWN INTO THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY..GIVEN CURRENT 50S DEWPOINTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 255 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005) DISCUSSION... A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY/ADJACENT ESCARPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING UNDER THE COOL NLY FLOW ALOFT...SO MIGHT HAVE TO KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SWWD TO THE TEXAS COAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE SLIGHT WEAKNESS ALOFT AND STG HEATING EACH MORNING DUE TO CLEAR SKIES...ISOLD CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL BE BRIEF AND COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL...SO WILL GO WITH POPS OF 10 PERCENT OR LESS ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL X-SECTIONS INDICATE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRI...AND THEREFORE HAVE MENTION OF ISOLD- SLGT CHC POPS EACH DAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE DOMINATE...BUT NOT DOMINATE ENUF TO RULE OUT ISOLATED AIRMASS CONVECTION OR A FEW SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. IN THE LONG TERM FOR NEXT WEEK...THE GFS INDICATES A SHIFT TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN BY LATE NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LATEST ECMWF HOWEVER DOES NOT LOOK AS PROGRESSIVE WITH A RIDGE TO OUR NW OVR NEW MEXICO/WEST TX. && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 02/13 266 FXUS64 KSHV 310134 AAA AFDSHV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 830 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD HAS ALLOWED SOME DRIER AIR TO FILTER ON DOWN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. DEWPOINTS SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER TONIGHT THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. FCST MINS HAVE THIS HANDLED PRETTY WELL AND WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE...NO UPDATES NEEDED FOR THIS CYCLE. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 70 97 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 68 95 70 97 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 64 96 64 97 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 69 97 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 67 96 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 70 98 72 98 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 68 98 71 98 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 67 98 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 13 279 FXUS62 KTAE 310136 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 930 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WINDING DOWN THIS EVENING WITH WEAK BANDING FROM KATRINA LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. WILL UPDATE ZONE FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER/TSTMS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BUT NOT IDEAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING & WITH SOME WIND...SO NOT EXPECTED DENSE. TEMPS ON TRACK. WILL LOWER SCA OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO SCEC WITH WINDS & SEAS LOWERING...& EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH HEATING...INSTABILITY...& WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH TO DRIFT ACROSS THE SE U.S. AS KATRINA LIFTS NE. && .AVIATION...THERE ARE STILL ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NOT AT THE TAF SITES. WITH THE OVERNIGHT POP BEING SO LOW WE WILL NOT INCLUDE RAIN IN THE TAFS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG...BUT SOME MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CEILINGS MAY OCCUR...AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT. WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE 6-HOUR POP BEING AROUND 30 PERCENT AT EACH TAF SITE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. $$ PUBLIC/MARINE...MCT FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...JF .PREV DISCUSSION... 252 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA IS NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY CONTINUING TO MOVE TO NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 30 MPH AND CONTINUING TO DECREASE. HERE LOCALLY...A FEW TRAILING BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER OUR CWA WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY RESIDING IN THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME GUSTY WINDS TODAY AS ALBANY HAS RECORDED A GUST UP TO 38KTS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GEORGIA COUNTIES JUST OUTSIDE OUR AREA TO THE NORTH. .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GFS IS ADVERTISING A "FRONTAL PASSAGE" THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF KATRINA AS IT HAS ALREADY TRANSITIONED TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS POINT. WHETHER THIS IS A TRUE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR NOT CAN BE DISPUTED...BUT NEVERTHELESS IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE USED THE GFS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO ITS GOOD PERFORMANCE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. TONIGHT...EXPECT CONTINUING TRAILING BANDS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP A 30 TO 40 POP CONFIGURATION WEST TO EAST FOR TONIGHT. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...HOWEVER NOT AS WARM AS THE 83 DEGREES SEEN AT TALLAHASSEE THIS MORNING. (WARMEST EVER MORNING MINIMUM AT TLH BELIEVED TO BE SEEN.) WEDNESDAY..."FRONT" STILL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA STARTS TO APPROACH OUR ALABAMA COUNTIES. SHOULD SEE BEST POP CONFIGURATION EAST OF A TALLAHASSEE TO ALBANY LINE WHERE 60 POPS WILL RESIDE FOR TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS DON'T QUITE CLIMB TO LEVELS SEEN TODAY AS EXPECT ONLY TEMPS TO BE IN THE LOW 90S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT..."FRONT" PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WEST TO EAST BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AND THEREFORE WILL INCLUDE 30 POPS IN THE LOWER SE BIG BEND AND 20 POPS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS ARE NOTICEABLY COOLER...ESPECIALLY FAR INLAND AT NIGHT WITH MINS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S CENTRAL AND MID 70S AT THE COAST. THURSDAY...WITH THE FRONT NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND LOOSING WHAT IDENTITY IT HAD AS A FRONT...POPS DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A WONDERFUL START TO SEPTEMBER EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S BUT MUCH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. RH VALUES IN THE LOW 40S OVER ALABAMA AND LOW 50S IN FLORIDA. FRIDAY...EXPECT NEARLY A DRY DAY FOR FRIDAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE SE CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA TO WARRANT POPS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF 20 PERCENT. NICE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... AS THE PERIOD STARTS OFF...SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWINGS INTO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTY. THIS RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. FOR SATURDAY...WITH H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NATION'S MID SECTION THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTER MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY. THIS INDUCES A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR US AND REALLY DRIES OUT THE CWA. MEAN LAYER RH IN THE GFS DROPS DOWN INTO TH 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE...QUITE NICE CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST WEEK IN SEPTEMBER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S DURING THE DAY AND THEN A COOLING TREND BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY...SURFACE RIDGE NOW POSITIONED IN THE GFS AND DGEX TO BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS IS A VERY STRONG RIDGE...ON THE ORDER OF 1028MB. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH...OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION PROVIDING FOR SOME NICE COOLING CONDITIONS. HAVE ONLY SET 20 POPS FOR SUNDAY AREA WIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. HUMIDITY VALUES ALSO LOOK TO BE JUST A LITTLE LOWER. MONDAY...SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH PERSISTENT AND STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW. WILL LOWER TEMPS A CATEGORY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND CONTINUE 20 PERCENT POPS WITH A 30 POP DOWN IN DIXIE AND LAFAYETTE COUNTY DUE TO PROXIMITY TO A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THIS TIME...EVEN THOUGH THE DGEX AND GFS ARE INDICATING THIS WAVE...NEITHER MODEL IS BULLISH ABOUT CLOSING OFF A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AT 500 MB. WE ARE NEARING THE STATISTICAL PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON SO YOU CAN NEVER RULE OUT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL NOT OVERPLAY THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. COOLER NIGHT TIME LOWS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH MINS DROPPING EVEN INTO THE MID 60S IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TUESDAY...RIDGE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES INTO FLORIDA. BROUGHT RAIN CHANCES UP TO 30 PERCENT AREA WIDE AT THIS TIME AND KEPT TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. && .MARINE...CURRENTLY NO SEA REPORT FROM THE PANAMA CITY BUOY...BUT AT LAST REPORT SEAS WERE CONTINUING TO BE 1 FT ABOVE WHAT THE APALACHICOLA BUOY WAS READING. 7 FEET AT APALACH BUOY SO PROBABLY 8 FEET AT PANAMA CITY BUOY. RIGHT ON THE FENCE NOW BETWEEN SCA AND SCEC. COURSE OF LEAST REGRET IS TO CONTINUE THE SCA AND WILL DO SO. EVENING UPDATE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMOVE THE SCA. SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE WITH WINDS UNTIL THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS PICK UP. SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FEET EXPECTED. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH RH VALUES DROP INTO THE LOW 40S IN THE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...TODAY'S TAFS SHOW MVFR CIGS WITH IFR VSBY IN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TS. OVERNIGHT, WE SHOW MVFR VSBY AND CIGS REDEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 08Z, EVERYWHERE BUT PFN. INCLUDED PROB GROUPS FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW MORNING AFTER 14Z, EXCEPT AT PFN WHERE WE DEVELOP THEM OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE TWEB ROUTES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 75 91 72 93 / 40 50 20 20 PANAMA CITY 78 90 75 92 / 30 50 20 10 DOTHAN 73 91 71 92 / 30 30 20 10 ALBANY 74 91 71 92 / 40 50 20 10 VALDOSTA 75 91 71 94 / 40 60 20 20 CROSS CITY 75 89 73 92 / 40 60 30 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OFFSHORE LEGS. $$ PUBLIC/MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...WOOL 776 FXUS61 KRLX 310137 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 937 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS FOR TONIGHT TIMING THE ONE BAND THAT IS MOVING ACROSS WV AND ALSO LOOKING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CENTER OF KATRINA...WHICH IS NOW CENTER NEAR CINCINNATI. MODEL SHOW AN AREA OF LIFT MOVING FROM NRN KY...NEAR LEXINGTON...THROUGH EASTERN OHIO BY 12Z. AFTER THIS HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR THE POPS FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER SOME AS WELL. TEMPERATURES LOOKED TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON CURRENT TEMP/DEW POINT READINGS. && .HYDROLOGY... WITH MOST OF THE STEADY RAINFALL FROM KATRINA HAVING FALLEN ACROSS OHIO TODAY...THE RAIN AMOUNTS FROM THE SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE NOT BE THAT HEAVY WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING LESS THAN A HALF INCH...EXCEPT IN SE OHIO WHERE AMOUNTS WHERE MUCH CLOSER TO AN INCH TO 2 INCHES. THUS WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...HAVE DROPPED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WV AND FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN OHIO. HAVE LEFT NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN WV SINCE THERE IS STILL ONE BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS AND IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS. HAVE ALSO LEFT 5 COUNTIES IN SE OHIO SINCE THEY RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN TODAY WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. SINCE TROPICAL SYSTEMS DO TEND TO PICK UP THERE INTENSITY SOME OVER NIGHT AND THEY DO HAVE LIFT TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CENTER HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP THE WATCH IN PLACE THERE AS WELL. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 813 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) AVIATION... TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA IS NOW CENTERED OVER SRN IN AND IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD THROUGH OHIO TONIGHT. THE SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW INTO THE STORM HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE REGION IN VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS. AS THE CENTER CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PERSISTENT RAIN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN BANDS. IN THESE BANDS COULD SEE MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER ABOUT 7Z...THE CHANCES FOR PCPN GO DOWN FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS PKB WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF KATRINA AT THAT TIME. ON THE BACK SIDE OF KATRINA...THE CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO MVFR RANGE AROUND 2000 FT...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OVER NRN KY NOW. THESE CEILIING SHOULD HANG THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT AND CLEAR FROM SW TO NE AS KATRINA PULLS NORTHWARD INTO NW PA AND SWRN NY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 225 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... LATEST MESOANALYSIS ILLUSTRATES 0-3KM SRH AND 0-6KM WEAKENING A TOUCH...BUT NUMBERS STILL FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD SUPERCELLS. WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE INCREASING MUCAPES...ATMS CONTS TO BCM RIPE FOR TSTM DVLPMNT IN WW761. KATRINA PASSES TO OUR NW TNGT...WHICH BRINGS AN END TO QPF TWRD DAWN OUTSIDE THE MTNS. IN THE MEANTIME...DOWNSLOPING IN STRENGTHENING SE WINDS HAS ALLOWED SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SRN COAL FIELDS TO SHOOT UP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S. COMBINE THAT WITH A SFC WIND SHIFT LINE ALONG THE OH RVR S INTO ERN KY /TN...AIDS IN DEVELOPMENT OF TRW. TSTMS SHALL WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF THE SUN. COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z WED...HOWEVER MID LVL TROF SWINGING THROUGH COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OPTED FOR HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER IN THE EVENING WITH CHC ELSW...THEN CHC OR LKLY AFT MDNGT CWA WIDE. GUIDANCE CLUSTERED NICELY OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER OPTED FOR WARMER MET NUMBERS PER SFC PARCEL TRAJ OUT OF GA. SYSTEM SHOULD BE QUICK TO PULL OUT WEDNESDAY. WEAK WAVE BEHIND THE REMNANTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT THEN QUICK DRYING OUT AFTER WAVE PASSES WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRY AIR MOVING IN AND GENERAL CHANGE OF MEAN FLOW WILL MEAN DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO TAPPING OF MOISTURE THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HYDROLOGY... CANCELLED FLOOD WATCH FOR DICKENSON...BUCHANAN IN SW VIRGINIA AND FAYETTE...LOGAN..MCDOWELL..MINGO..NICHOLAS..POCAHONTAS..RALEIGH.. WEBSTER AND WYOMING COUNTIES IN WEST VIRGINIA. KEPT REST OF HSA IN FFA UNTIL 8AM WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE HEAVIEST AND STEADY RAINS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE HSA. MAIN THREAT IS FOR SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. IF RAINS ARE NOT REALIZIED...THERE IS THE POSSIBLITY OF ENDING THE FFA EARLIER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1208 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE WEAK FLOW THE PRESS FOR WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP SO WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM EXTREME HOT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED. NO GOOD TAPPING OF GULF MOISTURE EITHER. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLOOD WATCH FOR WVZ010-011-019-020-027>032-039-040-047 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. OH...FLOOD WATCH FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-084 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ESS HYDROLOGY... 180 FXUS61 KBTV 310137 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 937 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES... CURRENT FORECAST ON TARGET WITH RAIN MOVING IN TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT SO NO CHANGES NEEDED. REMAINS OF KATRINA JUST SOUTH OF CINCINNATI AT 00 UTC AND RUC/GFS/12UTC GFS ENSEMBLES ALL WITH BETTER ANALYSIS/FORECAST OF THE POSITION THAN THE NAM WHICH IS TOO SLOW. NAM CONTINUES TO LAG THE GFS IN POSITION BY 170 MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST BY 12 UTC WED. LATEST RUC SUPPORTS GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE WHICH HAS THE LOW CENTER JUST NORTH OF ERI BY 12Z TOMORROW. 00 UTC RAOBS SHOW INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATERS WITH OVER TWO INCHES AT KALY/KOKX/KCHH. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS RUNNING 4.5 KM INDICATE TROPICAL RAINFALL/WARM RAIN PROCESSES LIKELY AND HAVE SWITCHED OVER TO THE TROPICAL Z/R RAINFALL RATE ALGORITHM ON KCXX/KTYX RADARS. WARM OUTFLOW FROM KATRINA AND UPPER LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY INCREASING THE JET CORE WHICH WILL INCREASE THE DIVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS BY 12Z WED. ...HEAVY RAINFALL... BEST FORCING FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION CENTERS ON 09- 15Z FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA WITH BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/ FRONTOGENESIS. THE FORCING REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK (KMSS) FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF TIME BASICALLY 08Z WED -01Z THU. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HEAVIEST NEAR KMSS AND LIGHTEST NEAR KVSF WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE NORTH AND 1 TO 3 INCHES SOUTH. AREAS FROM BURLINGTON SOUTH AND EAST MAY GET OUT OF THE STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN INTO WARM SECTOR AFTER 15Z TOMORROW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER PER SPC DAY TWO OUTLOOK. ...WIND... GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS WOULD BE DURING MIDDAY/AFTERNOON WED WITH POSSIBLE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IN WARM SECTOR. GFS SHOWING UP TO 50 KTS AT 850 MB TOMORROW AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR G35-40KTS FROM KSLK/KBTV EASTWARD ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE THIS FURTHER. && .HYDROLOGY... LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST THREAT OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGES WILL BE ON THE FASTER RESPONDING SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS. LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE AUSABLE MAY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON IF OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN FALLS IN THE BASIN. OTHER SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS IN NORTHWEST VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK WOULD BE THE MOST PRONE TO ANY FLOODING ALONG WITH LOCAL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND "URBAN" AREAS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 401 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SYNOPSIS... THE LONG ANTICIPATED REMNANTS OF "KATRINA" ARE HEADED TO OUR FA. GFS/TPC/HPC TRACKS HAVE BEEN VRY SMLR AND CONSISTENT THE PAST 2-3 DAYS WITH GFS TRACKING KMSS-KPLB AND TPC ON CANADIAN SIDE OF ST LWRNC VLY. THE ACTUAL REMNANTS INTERACT WITH NRN STREAM DYNAMICS AS KATRINA CONTS TO TRANSLATE TO XTRATROPICAL AND SFC PRS MAINTAINS OR SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENS. NAT'L DISCUSSIONS FM HPC (PMDSPD/PMDHMD AND QPFPFD) XPLAIN THE DVLPG SITUATION ACRS FA. COUPLED UPR JET...INCRSG TROPICAL PWATS TO >2"...STG H8 35-50KTS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION MAKING FOR A RICH... XTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH GFS VRY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS...MY QPF AND WND FIELDS ARE FM A SLGTLY W TRACK OR COMPROMISE BTWN HPC/TPC AND GFS. THE END RESULT WITH THIS IS: 1) SLGTLY LESS QPF VALUES FOR VT VS. MDLS AND MORE IN ST LWRNC VLY. 2) GTR PRS GRADIENT IN CHMPL VLY AND MUCH OF FA...THUS STGR WNDS AS ALL MDLS ONLY BRG 10-20 MPH AT BEST ACRS FA YET LLVL JET EXCEEDS 40 KTS AND THUS HAVE GONE WINDY IN CHMPL VLY. 3) STORM TRACK ACRS NW NY MEANS WRM FNT LKLY LIFTING N OF MUCH OF VT AND PSBLY SE ADRNDKS. SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... TNGT: SHRA ALRDY IN WRN NY WITH SCT -TSRA DVLPG IN SRN VT AND DVLPG SHRA BTWN THIS ACTVTY IN MOHAWK VLY/CATSKILLS. THEREFORE...XPCT CONTD DVLPG SHRA/TSRA WITH GRST THREAT ACRS ADRNDKS AND POINTS SE INTO VT. TUE: MOST INDICATIONS THAT THE ABV MNTD ACTVTY WL SHIFT ENE WITH PSG OF MID-LVL SUPPORT AND WE AWAIT MOISTURE RETURN FM KATRINA (WELL IN ADVANCE) FM ACTUAL CIRCULATION. GFS WAS USED FOR THIS WITH SRN FA LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN LIFTING N WITH TIME THRU TUES NGT/WED. TUE/NGT/WED/WED NGT: THE RECENTLY MNTD ACTVTY INCREASES AS KATRINA MVS FURTHER N INTO OH RVR VLY WITH INCREASING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WAA PTRN OF RICH...TROPICAL AIR WITH PWATS AOA 2" ADVECTING INTO BNDRY. GFS TRACK SLIGHTLY E OF HPC...THUS WENT SLIGHT BLEND BUT KATRINA REMNANTS LIFT NE ACRS/W ST LWRNC VLY WITH BEST OVERRUNNING N/W OF TRACK. THUS....MAINLY ST LWRNC VLY. THU...KATRINA HAS PUSHED THRU/N OF FA WITH ERLY CHC OF WRAPARD/CAA INSTABILTY SHRA ALONG N FA WITH GRDL CLRG ELSEWHERE AND LESSER DEWPOINTS AS TROPICAL AIRMASS DEPARTS WITH KATRINA. LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... ENSEMBLES DATA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPCOMING SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACRS NE CONUS FOR FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS ACRS MTNS AND NORTHERN ZNS ON FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK ULVL FORCING. GIVEN...EXPECTED COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND SOME SURFACE HEATING ON SATURDAY AND STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES...WL MENTION CHC POPS IN MTN ZNS. OTHERWISE...PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10 SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE M/U 60S MTNS TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS FOR SATURDAY THRU MONDAY. SFC RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ULVL RIDGE WL SHIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY TUES AND LLVL WAA DEVELOPS. TEMPS BY TUESDAY WL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH DRY WX CONTINUING. AVIATION... FCST CONCERN FOR THE TAFS WL BE TIMING OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF KATRINA. WL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS/ETA 7H OMEGA/MOISTURE FIELDS TO PLACE TIMING OF PRECIP INTO TAFS. I WL MENTION TEMPO BTWN 04-06Z AT MPV/BTV FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP...THEN PREVAILING AFT 06Z WITH TEMPOS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP THRU 18Z WEDS. FOR SLK/MSS WL TEMPO THE ONSET OF PRECIP BTWN 05-07Z...THEN GO WITH PREVAILING GROUP. UPSTREAM OBS SUPPORT RA WITH VIS AROUND 2SM AND CIGS BTWN 010-020KFT. FOR THE PREVAILING GROUP WL GO WITH 4SM -RA/RA WITH CIGS BTWN 015-025KFT. SFC WINDS WL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON WEDS AFTN. ALSO...WIND PROFILES SUPPORT STRONG VEERING OF LLVL WINDS AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR. WITH 85H JET OF 35 TO 40KNTS SOME LLWS WL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS. HYDROLOGY... FLD GUIDANCE INDICATES 3.5 TO 6 INCHES IN A 6-12 HR PERIOD WHICH IS PSBL WITH REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS SUCH AS "FLOYD - 1999". AGAIN...FCST VALUES OF 2-4" LCLLY 5" FOR NRN NY WITH 2-4" IN NRN 1/2 OF VT THEN 1"- LCLLY 3" FOR SRN VT. HWVR...A STALLED FNTL BNDRY AND SOME PSBL TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTION PRECEDING "KATRINA" TNGT/TUES CUD LWR THESE VALUES AND NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR PSBL MODIFICATIONS. AS ALWAYS...STAY TUNED FOR PSBL CHGS/LTR UPDATES. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH FOR VTZ001>012-016>019 UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY. NY...FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087 UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...SISSON HYDROLOGY...SISSON 299 FXUS62 KMHX 310141 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 940 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...NO UPDATE PLANNED. CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVING INTO CENTRAL NC IS WEAKENING WILL LOSS OF HEATING. MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND ADDITIONAL ACITIVITY POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE WILL NEAR COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVITY OFF WATER AND CURRENT FCST HAS THIS HANDLED WELL WITH HIGHER POPS ALONG COAST. REST OF FCST ON TRACK AS WELL. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DURING SHRA ACTIVITY OR VCTS. && .MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. EXPECT WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE OVER COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ON WED. REMAINDER ON FCST IS ON TRACK. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR AMZ158 FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM THURSDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR AMZ150-152-154-156 FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM THURSDAY. && $$ JBM/RAP 051 FXUS61 KOKX 310144 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 944 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... .NEAR TERM (OVERNIGHT)... WILL UPDATE THIS EVENING MAINLY TO LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR/IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE SOUTH SO WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST. LATEST RUC DATA SHOWS A DISTURBANCE MOVING JUST WEST OF THE CWA...SO WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. 00Z OKX SOUNDING HAS PWATS JUST OVER 2.25" SO ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT DON'T EXPECT ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME LOCALIZED PONDING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS TO OCCUR AS STORMS WILL BE MOVING. ALSO WILL DECREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT AND GO WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT. TEMPS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...WILL JUST ADJUST TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST CONDITIONS. TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE MAIN PLAYERS ARE A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGING. THE RESULTANT DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION HAS ALLOWED FOR THE TROPICAL AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO HELP STEER THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA...CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT TPC FORECAST TAKES THE REMNANT LOW WELL WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...TRACKING UP INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... BEST MID LEVEL FORCING WORKS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND RESPECTIVELY. SPC HAS PLACED REGION UNDER SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 18C FOR TOMORROW...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS THEN TODAY WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...LIMITING THE TRUE POTENTIAL. REGION WILL ALSO BE IN A FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND UNDER THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF 250 HPA JET. ADDITIONALLY 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ON WED WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 150 TO 200 M2/S2. THUS...LOW TOP CONVECTION WITH SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS. LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH WOULD LIMITING SURFACE HEATING AND HENCE INSTABILITY AND THAT THE REMNANT LOW WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH USUALLY LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. SO WHILE THE THREAT EXIST FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE IF WE CAN DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR THIS TO COME TO FRUITION. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE ISSUED SPS TO DETAIL THE THREAT. OTHERWISE...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION BY AROUND 06Z WED NIGHT AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA WORK INTO QUEBEC. WITH A SUBSIDENT AND DRYING DEEP WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND 850 HPA TEMPS STILL AROUND 17-18C ON THURSDAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO APPROACH 90 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. NW FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... GENERALLY MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS. RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO REGION FOR BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER BUT WITH A WARMING TREND. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .MARINE... AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AND INCREASES...SEAS ON THE OCEAN (CURRENTLY AT 4 FT) WILL RISE INTO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SE SWELLS HAVE ALSO BECOME APPARENT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST THROUGH WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WITH THE GRADIENT INCREASING EVEN FURTHER WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVE WELL WEST OF THE WATERS...SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL LIKELY COME UP TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DURING THE DAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON THE WATERS COULD BRING DOWN SOME HIGHER WINDS ALSO DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FURTHER PROBLEMS ON THE AREA WATERS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED. && .AVIATION... DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE THE WESTERN TERMINALS WITH VISIBILITIES UNRESTRICTED AND CEILINGS VFR. SOME MVFR STRATUS FLOATING AROUND AND THROUGH ABOUT 03Z A BROKEN MVFR CEILING IS POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL ABOUT 07Z UNTIL THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND WINDS INCREASE. WILL KEEP VISIBILITY UNRESTRICTED ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS AS WELL. AS LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO ABOUT 15 KTS. WINDS NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KTS...AND SOME OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS AT ALL THE TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REMAINS VFR BUT WILL BECOME MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER 16Z AND POSSIBLY IFR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE COULD PRODUCE SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO LATE IN THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN TERMINALS. && .HYDROLOGY... EXPECT A GENERAL QPF OF BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE TROPICAL NATURE OF AIRMASS...THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE/LOW LYING ROADWAY...AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXISTS. HOWEVER...SINCE THE AREA HAS BEEN VERY DRY...WE DO NOT EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH RIVERS. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE FORECAST HIGH HUMIDITY AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL PUT AN END TO THE RECENT FIRE WEATHER DANGER. THEREFORE...THE UPDATED AFTERNOON FIRE WEATHER FORECAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE OCEAN...ANZ350-353-355. && $$ 783 FXUS61 KOKX 310145 CCA AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO REMOVE HEADLINE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 944 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .NEAR TERM (OVERNIGHT)... WILL UPDATE THIS EVENING MAINLY TO LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR/IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE SOUTH SO WILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST. LATEST RUC DATA SHOWS A DISTURBANCE MOVING JUST WEST OF THE CWA...SO WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. 00Z OKX SOUNDING HAS PWATS JUST OVER 2.25" SO ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT DON'T EXPECT ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME LOCALIZED PONDING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS TO OCCUR AS STORMS WILL BE MOVING. ALSO WILL DECREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT AND GO WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT. TEMPS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...WILL JUST ADJUST TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST CONDITIONS. TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE MAIN PLAYERS ARE A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGING. THE RESULTANT DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION HAS ALLOWED FOR THE TROPICAL AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO HELP STEER THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA...CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT TPC FORECAST TAKES THE REMNANT LOW WELL WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...TRACKING UP INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... BEST MID LEVEL FORCING WORKS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND RESPECTIVELY. SPC HAS PLACED REGION UNDER SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 18C FOR TOMORROW...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS THEN TODAY WITH GREATER INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...LIMITING THE TRUE POTENTIAL. REGION WILL ALSO BE IN A FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND UNDER THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF 250 HPA JET. ADDITIONALLY 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ON WED WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 150 TO 200 M2/S2. THUS...LOW TOP CONVECTION WITH SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED IN THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS. LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH WOULD LIMITING SURFACE HEATING AND HENCE INSTABILITY AND THAT THE REMNANT LOW WILL TRACK TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH USUALLY LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. SO WHILE THE THREAT EXIST FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE IF WE CAN DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR THIS TO COME TO FRUITION. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE ISSUED SPS TO DETAIL THE THREAT. OTHERWISE...COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION BY AROUND 06Z WED NIGHT AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA WORK INTO QUEBEC. WITH A SUBSIDENT AND DRYING DEEP WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND 850 HPA TEMPS STILL AROUND 17-18C ON THURSDAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO APPROACH 90 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. NW FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... GENERALLY MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS. RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO REGION FOR BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER BUT WITH A WARMING TREND. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .MARINE... AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AND INCREASES...SEAS ON THE OCEAN (CURRENTLY AT 4 FT) WILL RISE INTO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SE SWELLS HAVE ALSO BECOME APPARENT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST THROUGH WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WITH THE GRADIENT INCREASING EVEN FURTHER WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVE WELL WEST OF THE WATERS...SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL LIKELY COME UP TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DURING THE DAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON THE WATERS COULD BRING DOWN SOME HIGHER WINDS ALSO DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FURTHER PROBLEMS ON THE AREA WATERS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED. && .AVIATION... DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE THE WESTERN TERMINALS WITH VISIBILITIES UNRESTRICTED AND CEILINGS VFR. SOME MVFR STRATUS FLOATING AROUND AND THROUGH ABOUT 03Z A BROKEN MVFR CEILING IS POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL ABOUT 07Z UNTIL THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND WINDS INCREASE. WILL KEEP VISIBILITY UNRESTRICTED ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS AS WELL. AS LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO ABOUT 15 KTS. WINDS NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KTS...AND SOME OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS AT ALL THE TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REMAINS VFR BUT WILL BECOME MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER 16Z AND POSSIBLY IFR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE COULD PRODUCE SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO LATE IN THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN TERMINALS. && .HYDROLOGY... EXPECT A GENERAL QPF OF BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE TROPICAL NATURE OF AIRMASS...THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE/LOW LYING ROADWAY...AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXISTS. HOWEVER...SINCE THE AREA HAS BEEN VERY DRY...WE DO NOT EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH RIVERS. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE FORECAST HIGH HUMIDITY AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL PUT AN END TO THE RECENT FIRE WEATHER DANGER. THEREFORE...THE UPDATED AFTERNOON FIRE WEATHER FORECAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE OCEAN...ANZ350-353-355. && $$ 873 FXUS61 KBUF 310146 AAB AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 945 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE... AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM REMNANTS OF KATRINA IS NOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT IN SW NEW YORK ALONG A DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH EXTENDS SW THROUGH NW PA AND ERN OH. LOW CENTER VCNTY OF KCVG. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UPWARDS TO 1.5 INCHES IN EXTREME SW CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AND BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 INCH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THIS AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST SCENARIO AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR ON TRACK TONIGHT. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO CLEAN UP WORDING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGE. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF SYSTEM AND 6HR ACCUMULATION SO WILL CONTINUE TO SOLELY WORK WITH THIS MODEL AS GUIDANCE. TONIGHT...BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVE CLOSER TO WESTERN NY. AS OF 2PM...AREAS IN THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE LOW IN SOUTHERN OH ARE GETTING NEAR .3 IN PER HOUR WITH 6 HR AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH OVER PARTS OF KY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES STARTING FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PROGRESSING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIAGARA FRONTIER BY 9PM AND TO KART BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. WEDNESDAY...THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH A WONDERFUL LOOKING COUPLET. LATEST GFS HAS THE STRONG DIVERGENCE A BIT NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO....BUT OVERALL THE MODEL HAS BEEN EVERY CONSISTENT IN ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK AS WELL AS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER HAS BEEN FORECAST TO BE OVER OR NEAR KBUF SINCE AT LEAST THE 08/28 12Z RUN WITH A SWATH OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM KBUF TO KART. A SHARP GRADIENT EXISTS...WITH PRECIPITATION DROPPING OFF DRAMATICALLY HEADING INTO CENTRAL NY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW CENTER QUICKLY TRACKS THROUGH QUEBEC AND SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ON THURSDAY FOR A BREAK IN THE ACTION. FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THROUGH ONTARIO. ALONG WITH IT WILL BE A SURFACE COLD FRONT. FOR NOW WILL PLACE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT FOR AREAS EAST OF KBUF IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH ONTARIO. CURRENTLY THIS IS BEST SEEN AT 300MB AND IS ONLY HINTED AT LOWER LEVELS AS AN INCREASE IN RH OVER CENTRAL NY ALONG WITH A SMALL BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 700MB. WILL PLACE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM ABOUT KROC EAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A RIDGE OVER NY SUN THROUGH TUES. FOR TEMPS HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS FOR HIGHS AND BELOW MOS FOR LOWS WITH ANTICIPATED DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE MORNING. && .AVIATION... CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF KATRINA OVERSPREADS THE AREA. CIGS WILL BE FIRST TO DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR...SOMETIME AFTER 00Z...EXCEPT OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE LOW CLOUDS DID NOT CLEAR OUT AT ALL TODAY. VSBY WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO DROP...GOING MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH I HAVE NOT PUT LLWS INTO THIS AVIATION PACKAGE, IT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO ENCOUNTER THOSE CONDITIONS...MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION CUTS ACROSS WNY. && .MARINE... AS KATRINA MOVES NORTHWARD WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST AHEAD THE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT. OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL RESPOND MOST TO THE EASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH WAVES BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE LAKE BY MORNING. AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEAST THEN NORTH THE WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CIRCULATION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE HOISTED FOR THE NEW YORK SHORES OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... BASED ON RFC RIVER FORECASTS...IF WE REALIZE THE HIGH END OF FORECAST PRECIPITATION...WHICH WOULD BE A STORM TOTAL OF 4 INCHES...A FEW MAJOR WATERWAYS COULD HIT OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. IN THE BUFFALO AREA...BUFFALO AND CAZENOVIA CREEKS COULD GO BRIEFLY ABOVE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE BLACK RIVER COULD ALSO APPROACH OR GO BRIEFLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...BUT NOT UNTIL SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN DURING AN 18 TO 24 HOUR PERIOD MAY NOT EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...BUT WILL CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THE OTHER IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THIS SITUATION IS THAT THE RAIN WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WHILE EVERYONE IS FAST ASLEEP. IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ASSESS THE SITUATION THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. && .BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NYZ01>008-010>014-019>020-085 .MARINE...NONE $$ .UPDATE...SL .SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/...ZAFF .AVIATION/MARINE...JJP 479 FXUS63 KFSD 310147 AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 845 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... WL BE UPDATING THE ZFP TEXT SHORTLY...AND HAVE SLIGHTLY ALTERED AND FINE TUNED THE GRIDDED DATA FOR THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. 01Z SFC OBS SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF CDFNT EXTENDING FM JUST E PINE RIDGE SD TO JUST W OF MOBRIDGE. QUICK MOVG UPPER TROF WITH THIS FRONT...SO RAPID EWD MOVEMENT IS NOT A PROBLEM WITH THE SFC FRONT. MAIN CONCERN TNGT IS TS CHCS OF COURSE. I ACTUALLY RAISED THE POPS TO A 40 SCT ACRS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWFA AFTER MIDNIGHT. COUPLE OF THINGS GOING ON TO WARRANT THAT. FIRST...CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP AND IS MOVG NE IN SW SD AND NW NEB. IN ADDN...IT APPEARS PER THE LATEST NAM/RUC DATA THAT THE WRN HALF OF THE FA IS THE FOCUS WHERE THE LOW LVL MSTR ADVECTION...MSTR CONVERGENCE...THTE E AND H9 MSTR TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED. THIS IS DUE BECAUSE THE CDFNT IS STILL LARGELY TO THE W OF THESE FEATURES. IN FACT...CHAMBERLAIN'S SFC DP HAS RISEN TO 65. THIS TIMEFRAME OF MAXIMUM MSTR WL BE FM ABOUT 06Z-10Z. AFT 10Z...THE UPPER TROF REALLY CATCHES UP QUICKLY WITH THE SFC CDFNT...USHERING IT OUT OF SW MN AND NW IA IN A BIG WAY...WEAKENING BOTH THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LVL MSTR PARAMETERS. THEREFORE DID NOT ALTER THE CHC OR SLGT CHC POPS IN THOSE TWO AREAS VERY LATE TNGT...WED MRNG. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A ROGUE...MARGINALLY SVR CELL OR TWO IN OUR FAR WRN CWFA AROUND 06Z-07Z. ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARND H85 IS ABOUT -5C AT THAT TIME...ALONG WITH ELEVATED CAPES OF ABOUT 1500 J/KG. ANY TS DEVELOPMENT WL CERTAINLY NOT BE SFC BASED TNGT. E OF THE JAMES RIVER...CONDS STABILIZE RAPIDLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... FORECAST PERIOD TO BEGIN AND END WITH ACTIVE WEATHER WHILE VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN BETWEEN. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. BYZ AND GGW RADARS INDICATE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT. CLOSER TO HOME...WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE WEST OF THE JAMES AND EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE DECOUPLES...THEN INCREASE AGAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FLY ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED NEAR THE I-29 CORRIDOR AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. FAIRLY DECENT DYNAMICS WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS BAND ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER WITH 850-700 MB AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AT 6.5-7 AND 6.75-7.25 DEGREES PER KILOMETER RESPECTIVELY...AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTREMELY HARD TO COME BY...HAVE KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN CHECK IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. CONTINUED TO FOCUS HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH WHERE STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS IS LOCATED. FRONT WILL SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST RAPIDLY INTO IOWA AND MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LITTLE TO FOCUS ON IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS...AND KEPT FORECAST MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY AS A RESULT. AIR MASS IS DRY...AND HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. NEXT WEATHER MAKER EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE MARGINALLY HIGHER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT...AND WITH A MODERATELY STRONG FRONT EXPECTED... HAVE MAINTAINED THE GOING 30-40 PERCENT POPS. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ MJF/BT 723 FXUS63 KLMK 310149 AFDLMK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATE.. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 930 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .NEAR TERM (OVERNIGHT-EARLY WED)... CENTER OF TD KATRINA APPROACHING CVG ATTM WITH WRAP-ARND SHOWERS ON BACK EDGE OVERSPREADING OUR WRN FA. SCT SHWRS ALSO ON THE S SIDE OF KATRINA OVER THE BLUEGRASS AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT OVER ALL OF THE FA WITH THE HIEST GUSTS (ARND 30) OVER ECNTRL PARTS AS KATRINA PULLS AWAY TO THE NE RESULTING IN A PRES GRAD INCRS. NAM12 CLOSEST TO KATRINA LOCATION AT 00Z...BASED ON THIS ...THINKING ANOTHER .10 TO .50 INCH OF RAIN TO FALL OVER OUR NRN HALF OF FA OVERNGT BASED ON RADAR AND MEAN RH PROGS. SOME SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE ARND OVER THAT PART OF OUR FA FROM LOU TO LEX TO CVG TOWARD SUNRISE...SO LEFT 30 POPS EARLY MRNG. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ DK 808 FXUS64 KSJT 310154 AAA AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 854 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE... MID EVENING GOES IR IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES OVER WEST CENTRAL TX. AT THE SURFACE...A PRESSURE RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY... RESULTING IN LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER WEST CENTRAL TX. TEMPS WERE RUNNING 1 TO 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME MONDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JUNCTION...WHICH WAS 2 DEGREES WARMER. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. FORECAST ON TARGET AT THIS TIME. AN UPDATE WAS MADE EARLIER TO LOWER TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPS A CATEGORY IN SOME PLACES...NEAR THE MET GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE. GFS MAV GUIDANCE CONTINUES ITS STRUGGLE WITH TEMPS. WITH FORECAST UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. 14 && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 332 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005) DISCUSSION... A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ALOFT... THE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WITH A GRADUAL DRYING OF THE AIRMASS...SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE/SHEAR AXIS ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A NEARLY STEADY-STATE PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S. THE NAM AND GFS MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...DROPPING INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE WEAK AND DIFFUSE...AND SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 260 FXUS61 KBOX 310155 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 955 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPDATING TO LOWER POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS TURNPIKE FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS MOST OF THIS AREA WITH 25 PCT CONTOUR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. RAIN IN NEW YORK STATE IS LIFTING NORTH AND SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT PARTS OF BERKSHIRE CO/FRANKLIN CO AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NEAR WASHINGTON IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND EXTRAPOLATES TO WESTERN CONNECTICUT AROUND 10- 11Z. SO POPS SHOULD START INCREASING IN THAT AREA BY MORNING. TWEAKED THE WIND A LITTLE BUT OTHERWISE GRIDS REMAIN CLOSE TO ORIGINAL VALUES. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 345 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) ..SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)... A BAND OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING DUMPED A MUCH NEEDED 2.5 TO 5.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS IN A VERY SHORT TIME. THIS RESULTED IN AN URBAN TYPE OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH AND SOUTHERN BRISTOL COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT... IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE ACTION FOR AT LEAST A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT AS THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT THE NORTHWEST OF THIS REGION. THEREFORE...WILL CHECK RADAR TRENDS JUST BEFORE ZONE ISSUANCE BUT WILL PROBABLY CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. OTHERWISE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AND EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT PRESSES NORTHWARD. MOST ACTION ON THE LOW LEVEL JET USUALLY OCCURS NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER RUNS IT. THEREFORE...FEEL THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF SURFACE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH 70+ DEWPOINTS IT CAN NEVER BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY...PLACING US ON THE WARM SECTOR SIDE OF THE STORM. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE THE STRONGEST WE HAVE SEEN IN A LONG TIME. THE GFS IS SHOWING 45 TO 60 KNOTS OF WIND FROM JUST OFF THE GROUND THROUGH 500 MB. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER US WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +18C. DESPITE A LOT OF CLOUDINESS AROUND GUIDANCE NUMBERS SEEM WAY TOO COOL AND WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS ALOFT IT BE TOUGH FOR US NOT TO MIX SOME OF THIS DOWN. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. IT WILL FEEL VERY MUGGY AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. EVEN THROUGH IT MAY BE A RATHER CLOUDY DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SO MUCH WINDS ALOFT WE DEFINITELY MAY SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE AS WE MIX OUT. WITH SUCH A HIGH AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S WILL RESULT IN 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE. THE GFS INDICATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF 700 OMEGA WHICH IS A GOOD INDICATION THERE THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION OVER US. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS ALOFT ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT GOES UP MAY QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. IN ADDITION...WITH SUCH STRONG SPEED SHEAR AND WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 75 AND 150 AND BOUNDARY LAYER TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS...AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AGAIN THOUGH...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WHICH STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FINALLY...WITH A TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AS WE SAW TODAY. ITS TOO HARD TO PINPOINT THIS AREA SO WILL COVER THIS IN THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR OUR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... HAVE LIKELY POPS SPILLING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN DROP POPS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. THURSDAY LOOKS DRY. FRIDAY PROBABLY WILL BE DRY TOO...ALTHOUGH PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN ZONES WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. LOOKS LIKE LITTLE MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...BUT SYSTEM LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH AND WITH TIMING DURING AFTERNOON...WOULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. FOR THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURE MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS FAIRLY REASONABLE AND TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO LOW/MID 80S AWAY FROM S COAST AS 850 MB TEMPS 12-14. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL SET UP ACRS NEW ENG THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNDER LOW LEVEL NW FLOW. CONTINUED DRY WITH WARMING TREND MON/TUE AS SFC HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EWD INTO NEW ENG. AVIATION... MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOCAL VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS AND NANTUCKET. MARINE... IN THE SHORT TERM...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS OVERNIGHT FOR 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS. WINDS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH STRONG WINDS RIGHT OFF THE DECK ON WEDNESDAY WILL GO FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EVERYWHERE FOR 30 KNOT WIND GUSTS. ALSO...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS. IN THE LONGER TERM...WIND GUSTS LIKELY APPROACHING GALES WED NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES EWD ACRS THE WATERS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT FULL MIXING BUT MAY STILL SEE GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS WED NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO W BHND FROPA AS CAA IS WEAK TO NIL. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH 10 FEET ON THE OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING DURING THU. NO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED BEYOND FRI. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR RIZ008 FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ230>237-250 FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ254-255 UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...WTB/MCJ 524 FXUS62 KILM 310156 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1000 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)... LAST OF THE SHOWERS FADING FAST ACROSS NW CORNER OF THE CWA. ATMOSPHERE STABILIZING RAPIDLY AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM...DON'T THINK IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO RENEW CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...REMOVED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WIND IS EXPECTED TO STAY UP...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...BUT EVEN INLAND...ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO KEEP FOG OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE FROM DEVELOPING. NO OTHER CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .AVIATION... CONVECTION WINDING DOWN NEAR FLO, NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN. MOST PLACES PROBABLY REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME SC HAS BEEN BRINING MVFR TO THE MYRTLE BEACH TERMS BUT IT SEEMS UNLIKELY TO LAST VERY LONG. OTHERWISE VFR ALL TERMS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... BROAD S/SW FLOW CONTINUES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF KATRINA. EXPECT TO MAINTAIN SPEEDS IN THE 15-20 KT BRACKET NEXT 24 HRS. SEAS A LITTLE SLOWER TO RESPOND...BUT DO BELIEVE WE CAN STILL REACH SCA THRESHOLDS...ALBEIT BRIEFLY IN THE SC WATERS. WILL PULL THE MENTION OF OVERNIGHT PRECIP BUT OTHERWISE CHANGES WILL BE LIMITED TO INITIALIZATION TWEAKS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR AMZ254-256 THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR AMZ250-252 THROUGH 5 PM WEDNESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...RJD AVIATION...MBB MARINE...RAS 639 FXUS62 KCHS 310156 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 955 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...CONVECTION HAS DIED OFF FOR THE MOST PART AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. FOR THAT REASON WILL LOWER POPS TO 20 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND THEN TO 10 PERCENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA FROM EARLIER STORMS...THIS SHOULD THIN AND ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS LOOK FINE. SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND DROP IN SPEED FROM NEAR 10 DOWN TO 5-10 AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. && .MARINE...WILL DROP THE CAUTION FOR BOTH THE HARBOR AND OFFSHORE GA ZONES. SEAS LOOK TO BE 3-4 FT THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL WATERS. MUCH LIKE THE INLAND STATIONS...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND AVERAGE 15 KT. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED CB IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH TERMINALS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLY FIRING ALONG A RESULTANT SEABREEZE. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ PY 641 FXUS63 KIWX 310156 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 855 PM EST TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE... SFC LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA...WAS LOCATED OVER SW OHIO AT 01Z. THIS LOW WILL PIVOT NE INTO N CNTRL OHIO BY 06Z...THEN INTO FAR NE OHIO BY 09Z. KIWX RADAR SHOWS THAT PCPN WAS BECOMING LIGHTER ACRS THE REGION...AND BECOMING CONFINED TO THE SERN CWFA. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO REDUCE CHC/S OF RAIN IN THE WEST...AND ALSO TO SHOW A MORE GRADUAL DECREASE TO LIGHT PCPN OVERNIGHT. ALSO...BUOY 45007 ON LAKE MICHIGAN IS REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 27KTS. WAVES ARE REPORTED NEAR 6 FEET. WILL HAVE TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE ZONES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOUR AND INTO WEDNESDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... AVIATION... WILL BE USING THE 18Z GFS AND CURRENT RUC40 FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA...WAS LOCATED BETWEEN LOUISVILLE AND FRANKFORT KENTUCKY AT 23Z. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST...WEAKENING AS IT DOES...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW TO MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCD WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL ACRS NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO AS SEEN BY KIWX AND SURROUNDING RADARS. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z....PCPN WILL MOVE ENE AS WELL. THUS...WILL CONTINUE MVFR CONDITIONS IN CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN/MIST AT KFWA THROUGH 06Z...THEN END IT THEREAFTER. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE ABOVE THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KFWA BY 09Z AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT NE INTO NORTHEAST OHIO. KSBN REMAINS TOO FAR TO THE WEST OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS...SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THERE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RESIDUAL LOW LVL MSTR AT THE 850 MB LVL WILL ALLOW SCT-BKN CUMULUS TO DEVELOP ACRS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z WEDNESDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. SHORT TERM... WATER VAPOR SHOWING REMNANTS OF KATRINA SHEARING QUICKLY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST. DEFORMATION TYPE PCPN ON NORTHWEST SIDE OF CIRCULATION AFFECTING SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PCPN HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE NORTHWEST AS IT ENCOUNTERS MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE. CIRCULATION CENTER LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG TRACK OF BEST HEIGHT FALLS HAS FINALLY ALLOWED EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD TO BEGIN INCHING NORTHWEST AGAIN. EXPECT SOME WESTWARD EXPANSION AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST THIS EVENING BEFORE BACK EDGE BEGINS TO PIVOT EAST. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL CONTINUES IN FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE RADAR RETURNS HAVE SHOWN INCREASE REFLECTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN BUT SPREAD OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 15 HOURS. THEREFORE EXPECT RUNOFF TO BE HANDLED FAIRLY WELL WITH ONLY SOME LOCALIZED PROBLEMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH NOWCASTS AND ESF HIGHLIGHTING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BUT NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. AS ALWAYS...WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING FOR ANY CHANGES. HAVE LEFT A SHARP CUTOFF TO WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN IN GRIDS. THIS LEAVES EXTREME NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA DRY OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED TREND OF ENDING PCPN FROM WEST TO EAST BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO END AS QUICK AS HPC QPF FORECAST. HAVE HELD ONTO POPS ALL NIGHT NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHEAST INDIANA...THEN END PCPN ALL TOGETHER IN THE FAR NORTHEAST WED MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM WEST IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM. SKY COVER SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...HOWEVER...SCT-BKN CU EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS WHERE LESS SUBSIDENCE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAIN ALONG WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LONG TERM... LOW PRESSURE DEPICTED WELL ON WATER VAPOR ALONG H50 TROF OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BITTERROOT RANGE IN THE PAC NW. MODELS CONTINUE TO TRANSFER MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PEAK HEATING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG DIGGING OF H50 TROF OVER THE MIDWEST ON WED. MODELS SHOW MORE AMPLIFICATION AND AN INCREASE IN 85-70H RH DURING THU AM OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH PASSAGE OF H50 TROF. CANADIAN MODEL DAMPENS THE H50 TROF CONSIDERABLY BY 12Z THU BEFORE MOVING IT INTO THE CWA. DUE TO LACK OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND TIMING OF DAY AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO LEFT CWA DRY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND DOMINATES THE AREA AS RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD TROF SETTING UP OVER PAC NW. SLOW MODERATING TEMPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS SUN/MON AM...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NW CWA. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE KBEH FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S. STRONG RIDGE OVER EASTERN HALF OF US STARTS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL CONUS. SYSTEM WILL TAKE TIME TO IMPEDE RIDGE AS HIGH PRES HOLDS FIRM OVER NEW ENGL. FEEL ATTM SYSTEM WILL NOT MOVE INTO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TILL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-LMZ046. && $$ AVIATION/UPDATE...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...LASHLEY LONG TERM...WAMSLEY 689 FXUS61 KALY 310156 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 955 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS ZONE FORECASTS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 435 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SYNOPSIS... THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE MAP IS THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE KATRINA WHICH HAD MOVED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTH OF A 500 HPA CLOSED LOW. THERE WAS A DEEP UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE NORMAL 500 HPA HIGHS IN THE OCEAN WEST OF BAJA AND EAST OF FLORIDA. SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... NCEP TRACK OF LOW FROM KATRINA APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS TRACKS BUT MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFS. THE LOW WILL BE CENTERED NEAR CINCINNATI OHIO THIS EVENING... NEAR CLEVELAND OHIO WEDNESDAY MORNING...JUST NORTH OF VERMONT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND NORTHEAST OF MONTREAL BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON RADAR ECHOES WITH POPS GOING CATEGORICAL OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY...WHICH FITS IN WITH OUR NEIGHBORS...WITH CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRECIP FROM THE EVENT OVER WITH 6AM WITH SOME RESIDUAL FOG. THE 12Z GFS RUN ALSO CLEARED MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS OUT OF THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK AS WELL. THE BIG QUESTION OF THE DAY IS HOS MUCH SUNSHINE WE WILL GET WEDNESDAY AS THE CIRCULATION FROM THE REMAINS OF KATRINA BRINGS IN A FLOW OF EXTREMELY MOIST AIR FROM OFF THE OCEAN...WITH FLOW OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES STARTING MIDMORNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE EMPHASIZED RAIN WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER BY LATE MORNING AND THUNDER LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE GFS PUTS THE LOW WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF QUEBEC CITY WITH THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP MOSTLY NORTH AND EAST OF IT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER MAKER THIS WEEKEND ALTHOUGH A FLOW OF COOL AND MOIST AIR FROM NORTHEASTERN CANADA MAY BRING SOME CLOUDINESS TO OUR NORTHERMOST ZONES SATURDAY WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...WILL PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BUT LEAVE THE BULK OF OUR AREA DRY. BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY THE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE THREAT OF PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO STAY OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. AVIATION...TOUGH DAY WITH CEILINGS TODAY (VFR-MVFR-IFR). CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AS STEADY TROPICAL RAIN OVERSPREAD AREA. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH VERY HEAVY RAINS AT TIMES. IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE. LIGHT SE WINDS WILL BECOME S AND INCREASE BECOMING GUSTY IN WARM SECTOR. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR. CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MORE SUN WE GET BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE IN TROPICAL AIRMASS. HYDROLOGY...PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) 1.90 INCHES ON 12Z/ALB SOUNDING AND WILL INCREASE. 2+ INCH PWS. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS AMOUNTING TO 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. PRECIPITABLE WATER 2+ INCHES. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ENDING THE STEADY RAINS. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AREA WILL STILL BE IN A TROPICAL AIRMASS SO THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. EVEN THOUGH RESERVOIR AND STREAM CHANNEL STORAGE IS HIGH DUE TO THE RECENT DRY WEATHER. THE THREAT FOR SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING EXISTS....THUS THE FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL RISE...BUT ONLY TO HALF TO THREE QUARTER BANKFULL. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. VT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. && $$ 973 FXUS64 KHGX 310200 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 900 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. WILL JUST REMOVE EVENING WORDING IN THE ZFP AND SHIP IT BACK OUT FOR THE UPDATE. 47 && .254 PM DISCUSSION... A WELL DEFINED SEA BREEZE LIES ALONG THE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. SINCE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LIES ALONG THE COAST AND THE SEA BREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED TO PENETRATE TOO FAR INLAND...FEEL BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE CAOST. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A BUILDING CU FIELD OVER THE NW ZONES...SO MIGHT BROAD BRUSH 20 POPS EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING. WILL DECIDE AT PRESS TIME. REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS UNCHANGED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS AN EXPANDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN. PW'S ARE PROGGED TO DRY TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY SO THINK RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A THERMAL INVERSION BUILDING THIS WEEK. SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE UPPERLEVEL RIDGE. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND RAIN CHANCES IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BY MONDAY. THE EMCWF AND NOGAPS KEEP THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND CURRENT THINKING IS MEX NUMBERS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE A TOUCH LOW. HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND. 43 && MARINE... A RATHER LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY WEAK WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS. 46 && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG AT ANGLETON AROUND SUNRISE AND LIGHT FOG AT COLLEGE STATION. OTHERWISE...MAINLY A FEW CU IN THE LATE MORNING. 46 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 100 73 98 72 / 0 0 0 10 0 HOUSTON (IAH) 73 98 74 97 73 / 10 10 10 10 0 GALVESTON (GLS) 81 94 82 94 82 / 20 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ 997 FXUS62 KMLB 310201 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 10 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... ...RECORD HIGH SET AT VERO BEACH TODAY... SW FLOW BROUGHT STORMS NE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH COLLIDED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED NEARLY 2 INCHES IN PORT SALERNO (MARTIN COUNTY) AND POINCIANA (OSCEOLA COUNTY). MELBOURNE NWS OFFICE RECEIVED 0.62". NO WARNINGS WERE ISSUED OR NECESSARY...HANDLED ALL ACTIVITY WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS...MAINLY FOR DOWNBURST WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP UP THRU MIDNIGHT WORKING OVER RESIDUAL INSTABILITY. BUT CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY DAWN. ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE ESP ALG THE COAST WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL BE DELAYED AGAIN AND POSSIBLY PROHIBITED NORTH OF THE CAPE. VERO BEACH STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF SETTING ANOTHER RECORD HIGH ON WED. THEY REACHED 95F TODAY BREAKING THE RECORD OF 94 FROM 1999. RECORD WED IS 93 SET IN 1952. OTHER RECORD HIGHS DO NOT APPEAR IN DANGER...THOUGH THE 96F (1954) IN DAB COULD BE THREATENED IF STORMS HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH. ORLANDO IS ON TRACK TO REACH 90F OR GREATER FOR THE 52ND DAY IN A ROW WED. ABOUT THE ONLY THING THAT WOULD STOP THIS STREAK IS IF RAIN REACHES ORLANDO BY NOON. && .AVIATION...VFR THRU 15Z. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ KELLY/BRAGAW 715 FXUS61 KCTP 310202 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 946 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA EDGING EVER CLOSER...WITH STEADIEST RAINS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OCCURRING OVER NW CWA AS PREDICTED. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A DECIDED LACK OF STEADY PCPN ELSEWHERE AS DRY SLOT MOVED OVER CENTRAL PA. INITIAL REACTION WAS TO LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AFTER FURTHER ANALYSIS WILL HOLD ON TO CATEGORICAL POPS. SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT PCPN TO FILL IN OVER REMAINDER OF CWA AS SHORT WAVE TROF LIFTS NORTH INTO VERY MOIST AMS WITH DEWPOINTS GREAT THAT 70F OVER MUCH OF CWA. EDITED WORDING OF ZONES TO DESCRIBE PCPN AS MORE ON AND OFF SHOWERS AS OPPOSED TO A STEADY RAIN...BUT GRIDS WERE LEFT MOSTLY UNCHANGED. TALKED WITH SPC EARLIER THIS EVENING REGARDING SEVERE/TORNADO POTENTIAL AND WE AGREED THAT WHILE SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...THE LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD PRECLUDE NECESSITY FOR A WATCH FARTHER NORTH INTO PA ATTM. WE ARE OF COURSE CONTINUING TO MONITOR CELLS OVER VA AND OTHERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED UP FOR SIGNS OF ROTATION. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 226 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... REMNANTS OF KATRINA LOCATED OVER WESTERN KY THIS AFTN AND SHOWING EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ALIGNING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH STRETCHES FROM N INDIANA/OHIO TOWARD N PA. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE VALUES RISING ABV 1000J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN PA UNDER THIN SPOTS IN OVERCAST. THIS AREA ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHOW EARLY SIGNS OF CONVECTION...AND SUSPECT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL FILL IN OVR THIS REGION DURING LATE AFTN/EVEN. AS LL JET ROTATES NORTHWRD THIS EVENING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL OF SVR WX. STRONG SHEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE 0-1KM LYR...COMBINED WITH LOW LCL COULD EVEN RESULT IN ISOLATED TORNADOES. HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS MOST LIKELY OVER NW PA CLOSEST TO TRACK OF KATRINA. SREF DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF OVR 2 INCHES ACROSS EXTREME NW PA. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...HEAVY RAIN STILL A THREAT AS PWAT VALUES WILL BE RUNNING OVR 2 INCHES. HOWEVER...ANY FLOODING WOULD BE LOCALIZED AND LIKELY RELATED TO CELL TRAINING OR ANCHORING ON TERRAIN FEATURES. HEATING/DESTABILIZATION UNDER DRY SLOT COULD RESULT IN A SVR WX THREAT OVER SE PA ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...BACK EDGE OF KATRINAS REMNANTS WILL LIFT THRU REGION...BRINGING AN END TO THE RAINFALL BY EVENING. RIDGING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FAIR WX ON THURSDAY. LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST MREF DATA SUGGESTS NO PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE. IN ITS WAKE...LARGE AREA OF HI PRES AT SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR AND SEASONABLE WX LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK. AVIATION... WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF PENN WHERE STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL FALL. A BAND OF STRONGER...SOUTHERLY LLVL WINDS (25-35KT BETWEEN 3-5 KFT AGL) WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...LEADING TO LLVL WIND SHEAR BASED GENERALLY AOA 1200 FEET AGL. SCT TSRA WIND LOCALIZED STRONG (>40K) SFC WIND GUSTS WILL FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENN...LIFTING NNE AND PHASING IN WITH THE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN AREA FURTHER NORTH. FROM 12-18Z WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF WHAT REMAINS FROM HURRICANE KATRINA WILL BE ~998 MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASING LLVL INSTABILITY AND MODERATELY STRONG 0-3KM WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A BKN BAND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE TSRA FROM LATE MORNING ON ALONG THE SOUTHWARD TRAILING SFC TROUGH. MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE MIXED WITH LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE TSRA (MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA BETWEEN 14-18Z). && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...GARTNER 103 FXUS61 KBUF 310207 AAB AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1005 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE... AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM REMNANTS OF KATRINA IS NOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT IN SW NEW YORK ALONG A DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH EXTENDS SW THROUGH NW PA AND ERN OH. LOW CENTER VCNTY OF KCVG. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UPWARDS TO 1.5 INCHES IN EXTREME SW CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AND BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 INCH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THIS AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST SCENARIO AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR ON TRACK TONIGHT. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO CLEAN UP WORDING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGE. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON PLACEMENT OF SYSTEM AND 6HR ACCUMULATION SO WILL CONTINUE TO SOLELY WORK WITH THIS MODEL AS GUIDANCE. TONIGHT...BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVE CLOSER TO WESTERN NY. AS OF 2PM...AREAS IN THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE LOW IN SOUTHERN OH ARE GETTING NEAR .3 IN PER HOUR WITH 6 HR AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH OVER PARTS OF KY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES STARTING FIRST IN THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PROGRESSING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIAGARA FRONTIER BY 9PM AND TO KART BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. WEDNESDAY...THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE IN THE MORNING WITH A WONDERFUL LOOKING COUPLET. LATEST GFS HAS THE STRONG DIVERGENCE A BIT NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO....BUT OVERALL THE MODEL HAS BEEN EVERY CONSISTENT IN ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK AS WELL AS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER HAS BEEN FORECAST TO BE OVER OR NEAR KBUF SINCE AT LEAST THE 08/28 12Z RUN WITH A SWATH OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM KBUF TO KART. A SHARP GRADIENT EXISTS...WITH PRECIPITATION DROPPING OFF DRAMATICALLY HEADING INTO CENTRAL NY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW CENTER QUICKLY TRACKS THROUGH QUEBEC AND SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ON THURSDAY FOR A BREAK IN THE ACTION. FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE MOVING ALONG THROUGH ONTARIO. ALONG WITH IT WILL BE A SURFACE COLD FRONT. FOR NOW WILL PLACE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT FOR AREAS EAST OF KBUF IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH ONTARIO. CURRENTLY THIS IS BEST SEEN AT 300MB AND IS ONLY HINTED AT LOWER LEVELS AS AN INCREASE IN RH OVER CENTRAL NY ALONG WITH A SMALL BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 700MB. WILL PLACE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM ABOUT KROC EAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A RIDGE OVER NY SUN THROUGH TUES. FOR TEMPS HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS FOR HIGHS AND BELOW MOS FOR LOWS WITH ANTICIPATED DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE MORNING. && .AVIATION... CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF KATRINA OVERSPREADS THE AREA. CIGS WILL BE FIRST TO DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR...SOMETIME AFTER 00Z...EXCEPT OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE LOW CLOUDS DID NOT CLEAR OUT AT ALL TODAY. VSBY WILL BE IN THE MVFR RANGE THEN DROP TO IFR LATE TONIGHT WITH RAIN BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG WITH FOG. CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH I HAVE NOT PUT LLWS INTO THIS AVIATION PACKAGE, IT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO ENCOUNTER THOSE CONDITIONS...MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION CUTS ACROSS WNY. && .MARINE... AS KATRINA MOVES NORTHWARD WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST AHEAD THE SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT. OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL RESPOND MOST TO THE EASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH WAVES BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE LAKE BY MORNING. AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEAST THEN NORTH THE WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CIRCULATION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE HOISTED FOR THE NEW YORK SHORES OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... BASED ON RFC RIVER FORECASTS...IF WE REALIZE THE HIGH END OF FORECAST PRECIPITATION...WHICH WOULD BE A STORM TOTAL OF 4 INCHES...A FEW MAJOR WATERWAYS COULD HIT OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. IN THE BUFFALO AREA...BUFFALO AND CAZENOVIA CREEKS COULD GO BRIEFLY ABOVE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE BLACK RIVER COULD ALSO APPROACH OR GO BRIEFLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...BUT NOT UNTIL SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN DURING AN 18 TO 24 HOUR PERIOD MAY NOT EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...BUT WILL CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THE OTHER IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THIS SITUATION IS THAT THE RAIN WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT...WHILE EVERYONE IS FAST ASLEEP. IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ASSESS THE SITUATION THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. && .BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NYZ01>008-010>014-019>020-085 .MARINE...NONE $$ .UPDATE...SL .SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/...ZAFF .AVIATION/MARINE...JJP 170 FXUS64 KLCH 310207 AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 905 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... AFTERNOON FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. ONLY UPDATE TONIGHT WILL BE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING FROM THE ZONES. 47 && .221 PM DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVING FROM THE TN RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL TROF IN WAKE OF KATRINA EXTENDING FROM NE TX-SW TX. GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LYING ACROSS NERN LA EXTENDING BACK SWWD INTO THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS. NO PRECIP OVER LAND AND NOT REALLY LOOKING FOR TOO MUCH. A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THRU EARLY THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF ACADIANA WHERE WEAK SEA BREEZE INTERACTING WITH HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL THEN BUILD IN WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE HOT SIDE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET THOUGH AS LOWER DEWPOINTS FILTER INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS EVENING. A LITTLE BIT OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE AT THE TAF SITES...BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT GO UNDER 5 MILES. && .MARINE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 72 97 74 97 / 0 10 10 10 KBPT 73 98 74 97 / 0 10 10 10 KAEX 70 97 71 97 / 0 0 0 10 KLFT 72 96 74 95 / 0 10 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...OZONE ACTION DAY HARDIN...JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES. && $$ WILEY 333 FXUS63 KFGF 310212 AFDFGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 910 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS FIRED IN NORTHWEST ND WHERE BY FAR THE BEST WARM ADVECTION IS ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...AND ALSO ON THE COOL FRONT ITSELF EAST OF ISN WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS. MEANWHILE THE COOL FRONT IS QUITE VISIBLE FARTHER SOUTH ON BIS RADAR AND MOVING EAST ABOUT 14 KNOTS. 00Z RUC INITIALIZED IT A LITTLE FARTHER WEST YET ACCELERATES IT EASTWARD A LITTLE FASTER THAN DOES NAM. STRONGEST CONVECTION SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO SKIRT THE SASK/ND BORDER BY THE TIME THE JET REACHES TOWNER/CAVALIER COUNTIES (AROUND MIDNIGHT). BUT 250 MB DIVERGENCE...WHICH IS AIDING THE STORMS CURRENTLY...WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER NORTH SO BELIEVE WE WILL BE ABLE TO ESCAPE SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT. WILL SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF STORMS A FEW HOURS TONIGHT BUT THE OVERALL PICTURE LOOKS SOLID ENOUGH AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN ORDER. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ GV 840 FXUS65 KMSO 310212 AFDMSO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT 812 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE...NOT PLANNING ON ANY UPDATES AT THIS TIME. THE SPRINKLES/FLURRIES HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER DECREASING OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP INTO THE REGION. EXPECT COLD...FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...OVER NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THEN A SLOW WARM UP WILL START ON WEDNESDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 243 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM...THE EXITING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW (TO THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE BUTTE) WILL FINISH CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THIS EVENING. ANY LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL END BY DUSK. OROGRAPHIC LIFT COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ENOUGH TO CREATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DIVIDE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW RELAXING A BIT TOMORROW...THE BREEZY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE UNDER A ZONAL FLOW. ON THURSDAY...A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD INTRODUCE ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO CREATE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM AS THE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST...USHERING IN WARMER AIR. LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL SKIRT THE FAR NORTH UNDER THIS PATTERN...AND COULD SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. BIGGER CHANGE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES. NORTHWEST MONTANA SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS...BUT OTHERWISE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE. WILL SEE A COOL DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE SYSTEM...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEK. AVIATION...LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE DIVIDE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES ALONG THE MOUNTAIN TOPS AND PEAKS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH EVENING. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. ID...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KOLATA PREV DISCUSSION...HENRY/WHITMORE AVIATION...KOLATA 888 FXUS64 KOHX 310213 AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 910 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION IS MOVING OUT OF THE MID STATE AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVES NORTH OF KENTUCKY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WAS STILL OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE MID STATE. SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. WINDS HAVE BEEN WESTERLY AND HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN MAGNITUDE OVER THE REGION. UPDATED ZONES EARLIER TO DECREASE WIND SPEEDS AND DROP LWA. IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO LOWER POPS AND DECREASE WINDS SPEEDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AT 300 PM THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WERE LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF BOWLING GREEN, KENTUCKY AND WERE CONTINUING TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE MID STATE, BUT HAD DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY FROM THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY. THE STRONG WINDS FROM LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER TODAY DOWNED TREES OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID STATE AND WINDS AT THE NASHVILLE AIRPORT GUSTED TO 40 MPH AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. WE CAN NOW LOOK FORWARD TO SOME MUCH MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER, AS THE "KATRINA TROUGH" SWEEPS TO THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER THIS EVENING...NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE ZFP THROUGH TUESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... NASHVILLE 68 86 66 89 / 40 10 10 10 CLARKSVILLE 66 87 64 86 / 40 10 10 10 CROSSVILLE 67 81 62 85 / 50 10 10 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE && $$ 19 952 FXUS65 KBYZ 310213 AFDBYZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 813 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU... STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. STILL SOME SHOWERS LINGERING IN EASTERN ZONES AS WELL AS SOME WRAPPING INTO NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT POPS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES A BIT LONGER UP TO AROUND MIDNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. STRONG WINDS IN EASTERN ZONES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING...BUT OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT SO RAISED WINDS A BIT GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. WOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY BUT LOOKS LIKE WIND SHOULD LIMIT THIS. DID RAISE LOWS A BIT BASED ON WIND FORECAST. RASCH .LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE... ALL MODELS IN GREAT AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY TO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST BY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN AMPLIFIED SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SWING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY. GFS A BIT SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS FEATURE BY SUNDAY EVENING...BUT SIMILAR ENOUGH TO SUGGEST A COOL DOWN ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE TROUGH LOOKS VERY PROGRESSIVE AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL REMAIN IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CATEGORY. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS TEMPERATURES WARMER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE STARTING COOLING TREND ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH ON SUNDAY AND MORE SUBSTANTIALLY ON MONDAY. FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. MEIER && .AVIATION... A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROUTES BY 12Z WED BRINGING AN END TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER 06Z. GUSTY NW SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO TAPER OFF AFTER 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WED AND WED EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. ARTHUR && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 045/076 052/081 053/086 055/088 054/085 053/077 050/076 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T 00/B LVM 038/076 041/080 045/086 047/087 048/084 047/079 044/078 20/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/B 12/T 10/B HDN 046/076 049/085 053/090 051/092 051/089 050/078 046/077 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T 00/B MLS 046/078 048/083 053/089 055/093 057/088 055/079 050/078 +0/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T 00/B 4BQ 046/077 047/084 051/090 053/092 056/089 056/079 048/078 +0/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T 00/B BHK 048/073 045/082 048/086 053/090 054/084 053/077 048/076 40/N 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T 00/B SHR 041/076 042/082 048/088 049/088 051/086 050/077 046/076 +0/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/T 00/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS 551 FXUS63 KDTX 310215 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1015 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE... THE REMNANT SURFACE LOW FROM KATRINA IS JUST SE OF CINCINNATI OHIO PER 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW THIS SYSTEM TO BE WEAKENING SOME AS THE UPPER WAVE IS GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LOW ROTATING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH KDTX RADAR SHOWS PRECIP HAVING WANED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...RETURNS ARE NOW BEGGING TO PICK UP IN THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE UP TO LAKE ST CLAIR. THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION THAT ALLOWED LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ALL THE WAY UP TO FLINT IS DIMINISHING AS SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS IS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW PRECIP TO WANE ALONG THE I-69 CORRIDOR. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A PORT HURON TO ANN ARBOR LINE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS HANDLES REASONABLY WELL. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE JUST TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP CHANCES AND TO INCREASE THE WINDS A LITTLE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS ON THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS ALSO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKES ST CLAIR AND ERIE. && .AVIATION...ISSUED AT 738 PM. THE 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE... REMNANTS OF KATRINA... NEAR LOUISVILLE, KY. EXPANSIVE AREA OF RAIN AND IFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO. HAVE SEEN A PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS DETROIT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO WEST-CENTRAL OHIO TONIGHT... SPREADING SOME HEAVIER RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS INTO DETROIT THIS EVENING. THE BEST LIFT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING... THEN PERSIST THROUGH 12Z THU. AFTER 12Z... THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST TOWARD BUFFALO ALLOWING SOME SUBSIDENCE AND DRYER AIR TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA... PROVING FOR IMPROVED CIGS AND VSBY THROUGH THE MORNING. FARTHER NORTH... SOME MID LEVEL DEFORMATION IN ADVANCE OF THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA AND WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100KT UPPER JET EAST OF LAKE HURON HAS ALLOWED SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP FROM PTK ALL THE WAY UP TO FNT. THIS DEFORMATION SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN ON THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE SURFACE LOW. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD STILL PROVIDE MVFR CIGS AND VSBY THROUGH THE NIGHT... EVEN WORKING INTO MBS OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NORTHERN FRINGE OF KATRINA TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT ZONES...WHICH DEPICT SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION. RAIN SHIELD HAS SPREAD INTO MONROE/LENAWEE COUNTIES AS OF 3 PM. WOULD EXPECT THE NORTHERN EDGE TO REACH M-59 THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...TO MAYBE AS FAR NORTH AS I-69...PER MID LEVEL OMEGA FIELDS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STABLE...AND DO NOT EXPECT THUNDER WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. IN FACT...HAVE SEEN NO LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO TODAY. WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND LACK OF INSTABILITY...NO CONCERNS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL HERE IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH MODEST 850-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. NONE-THE-LESS...MONROE COUNTY SHOULD DO OK WITH A QUARTER TO MAYBE HALF AN INCH OF RAIN. LARGE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA TO ABSORB KATRINA BY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. SLOW CLEARING TREND TOMORROW DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATED MAXES AROUND 80 DEGREES WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH KATRINA RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...EXTENDED FORECAST QUIETS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGH PRESSURE...FROM THE SURFACE UP...BUILDS IN FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST...PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY WEATHER TO SPEAK OF WILL BE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT RACES THROUGH THE LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE BEST LIFT/FORCING WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...AND WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 100 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON...6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. && $$ SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM....DG AVIATION/UPDATE ....CONSIDINE 592 FXUS64 KFWD 310215 AAB AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR PUBLIC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 915 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .PUBLIC DISCUSSION... WITH NO POPS IN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...CLEAR SKIES...AND A GOOD TEMPERATURES FORECAST...WE WILL NOT AMEND THE CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME. #26 && .AVIATION... NO CONCERNS. VFR WITH SKC THROUGH NOON WED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR EVEN CALM TONIGHT...BUT MIXING TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NE WINDS. TR/92 && .DISCUSSION... ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT AS KATRINA MOVES FURTHER AWAY. A FEW SHRA DEVELOPED SW OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY S WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM N FLOW. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO N TEXAS TO TRIGGER STORMS. FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AND MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...BUT AT THE SAME TIME H5 RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION. THAT...AND THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BACK DOOR INTO N TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL BACK IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR THIS FRONT TO WORK WITH EITHER...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE ONGOING FORECAST. END OF GFS FORECAST...WEEK FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOOKS A BIT MORE INTERESTING FOR THOSE SEARCHING FOR SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE INTO FALL. BUT THEN AGAIN...EXTENDED PORTION OF GFS OFTEN SWINGS WIDELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRANSITION MONTHS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 72 98 73 97 / 10 0 0 0 WACO, TX 70 99 70 96 / 10 0 0 0 PARIS, TX 67 95 68 95 / 10 0 0 0 DENTON, TX 70 98 70 97 / 10 0 0 0 MCKINNEY, TX 71 98 71 97 / 10 0 0 0 DALLAS, TX 73 98 74 97 / 10 0 0 0 TERRELL, TX 70 98 71 97 / 10 0 0 0 CORSICANA, TX 70 98 71 96 / 10 0 0 0 TEMPLE, TX 72 99 71 96 / 10 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 80/ 984 FXUS64 KTSA 310216 AFDTSA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 916 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE... WILL SEND QUICK UPDATE TO MODIFY SKY CONDITION AND MAKE A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IN FAR EASTERN SECTIONS...BUT EVEN THESE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS DROPPING NICELY WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...A FEW MESONET SITES IN NE OKLAHOMA ALREADY NEAR FORECAST LOWS. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 254 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005) DISCUSSION.. DRY AIR HAS FILTERED INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WOULD EXPECT THIS FRONT TO BE DRY AS THE GULF HAS BEEN CUT OFF AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA PER THE NAM MET GUIDANCE. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FLIRT WITH THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF POPS OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS RATHER BENIGN WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 14 LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 10 392 FXUS63 KILX 310222 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 915 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... PRECIPITATION IS ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA ON ONLY REMAINS IN LAWRENCE COUNTY. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THIS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE COUNTY AORUND 10 PM. THEREFORE...WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE PCPN WORDING FROM ALL EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GROUPS. REMAINDER OF FCST WILL BE LEFT ALONE AND LOOKS FINE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA FOR OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING...AND THEN RAIN CHANCES...IF ANY...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING ACRS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UNLIKE YESTERDAY...MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THEIR TRACK AND SPEED OF KATRINA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA. AFTER THAT...A RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... 18Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING REMNANTS OF KATRINA OVER SW KENTUCKY TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARDS SE IND/SW OHIO BY THIS EVENING. LARGE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN BANDS WRAPPING SOUTH AROUND THE SFC LOW...SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE ILX AREA THIS EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS TRENDS OF ENDING THE RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEST AND NORTH...WE SHOULD SEE THE CIRRUS SHIELD PULL BACK SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. BASED ON UPSTREAM 18Z DEW POINTS...MAY PULL BACK A FEW DEGREES FROM GUID...LEAVING UPPER 50 TO LOW 60 DEGREE READINGS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH ITS WAY EAST ACRS THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL RIDGE AXIS WON'T GET EAST OF HERE UNTIL EVENING. ONCE IT DOES...SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH SHOULD PUSH INTO THE NRN MIDWEST WED NIGHT. FAIRLY DECENT WARM AXIS DEPICTED FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB WED NIGHT...HOWEVER MOISTURE NOT THERE FOR MUCH...IF ANY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. SILENT 20 POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW POPS CONTINUING ACRS OUR FAR EAST FOR THU. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY WITH A FAIRLY DECENT SURGE OF DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS INTO THE MIDWEST IN ITS WAKE. 850 TEMP PROGS SUGGEST NO IMPORTANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES HEADING INTO FRIDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... QUIET WEATHER PATTERN TO HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LATE WED/THU TROF SHIFTS EAST AND DROPS INTO LONGWAVE TROF POSITION. FURTHER WEST...FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TROF PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HELPING TO PUMP RIDGE ACRS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO AFFECT OUR AREA WON'T REALLY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO US UNTIL LATE TUE OR WED OF NEXT WEEK...AND THAT MAY BE TOO QUICK. ENSEMBLE MODELS NOT SHOWING AS MUCH SPREAD WITH THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK SO CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BETTER REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR CNTRL IL. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DRY FORECAST GOING INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. $$ AUTEN/SMITH 397 FXUS62 KMFL 310221 AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 950 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND PLAN NO CHANGES OTHER THAN CLEANING UP THE WORDING. RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHERN TIP/FLORIDA STRAITS CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN AND SO FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SURFACE RIDGE NOW OVER EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND WILL STAY SOUTH OF US THROUGH THURSDAY. H5 HIGH WEAKENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BY FRIDAY AND RETREATS WEST. H5 TROF MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS BY THE WEEKEND WITH A LOW DEVELOPMENT NE OF THE BAHAMAS AND REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY. ANOTHER H5 TROF MOVES SE INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL TROUGH COMES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WED NIGHT AND REACHES CNTL FL FRI AND STALLS OVER S FL BY SAT. SURFACE RIDGE GETS PUSHED EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. WEAK LOW DEVELOPS N OF THE GRAND BAHAMAS ISLAND SUNDAY AND MOVES SW ALONG THE FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE GULF BY MON NIGHT. THIS LOW HAS TO BE MONITORED. WITH CONTINUED PWAT'S AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES IN SW FLOW, AFTN POPS WILL BE AT LEAST 40/50 PERCENT. THE HIGHEST POPS AND CLOUDINESS WILL BE THE FRI THROUGH MON TIMEFRAME. EMPHASIS SHOULD BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STATE WITH GENERAL FLOW FROM WEST TO EAST. && .MARINE...GENERALLY A SW/W FLOW LESS THAN 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH THU...BECOMING MORE VARIABLE AND LIGHTER AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES S FLA FRI INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST BEHIND THE TROUGH LATER SAT WITH A PICKUP IN SPEED AND SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC SUN. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 79 91 78 91 / 30 60 30 50 FORT LAUDERDALE 80 91 79 91 / 30 50 30 50 MIAMI 80 92 79 92 / 30 50 30 50 NAPLES 79 91 79 90 / 20 50 30 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ 18 525 FXUS63 KJKL 310225 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1025 PM TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... 02Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE REMAINS OF KATRINA MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO. ITS LARGE WIND FIELD COVERS MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH COMMON. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. ON RADAR JUST SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PINWHEELING THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST KENTUCKY. THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS NOW FALLING WELL NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH A TRAILING BAND DRAGGING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. EXPECT THE WINDS TO DECREASE AND SWITCH SOLIDLY TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS KATRINA PULLS AWAY. LIKEWISE...EXPECT THE BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN TO SLINK NORTHEAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN AS THE TRAILING BATCH BRUSHES THROUGH NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. WILL FINE TUNE THE GRIDS WITH THIS SCENARIO IN MIND...UPDATES TO THE TEXT PRODUCTS AND GRIDS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 330 PM TUE AUG 30 2005 BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST ARE THE EFFECTS OF KATRINA THIS EVENING AND CHANCES FOR PCPN BEYOND TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR SAT PIX SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AS A RESULT...FEEL HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS ALSO SHIFTED NORTH. THEREFORE...WILL CANCEL FLOOD WATCH. AS FOR WINDS...AREAS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLIRTING (BUT NOT REACHING) LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WITH GRADIENT RELAXING THIS EVENING...WILL ALSO CANCEL LAKE WIND ADVISORY. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN INCREASED INSTABILITY AND EXPECT CURRENT LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN KY TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING TORNADOS WITH IMPRESSIVE SHEAR (WHICH IS WEAKENING AS SFC WINDS BACK FROM THE SOUTH) ALONG WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNDRAFTS BRINING 50+ KT WINDS SEEN ON VAD WIND PROFILE ABV 5KT FEET. WITH THE NAM INITIALIZING KATRINA TOO FAR SOUTH...LEANED TWD THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST. GFS SHOWS MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE HANGING AROUND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN EARLY WED. OTHERWISE...WITH RELAXING GRADIENT LEANED TOWARD COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR LOWS WED NIGHT WITH WARMER MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS THURSDAY. LONG TERM...FRI THROUGH TUE. NOT MUCH CHANGE IF ANY IN THE EXTENDED. MODELS SHOWING GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER OVERALL. OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH THE AREA. APPEARS FOR NOW THAT SHORTWAVES WILL GENERATE NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS. ENSEMBLES SHOW AREA STAYS UNDER 570 THICKNESS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL... EXPECT COOL MORNINGS AND PLEASANTLY WARM AFTERNOONS. 1025 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 FOCUS THIS MORNING WAS ON THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WHICH SAT PICS INDICATE IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF HOP AT 14Z. LATEST 12Z NAM IS STILL SLOWER THAN 06Z GFS ON THE MOVEMENT OF KATRINA...AND STILL LEAN TWD THIS FASTER SOLUTION. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE REALLY REDUCING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...DUE TO FORECAST NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF KATRINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH WOULD PUT AXIS OF RAIN INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AS FOR WINDS...VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 25+ KNOTS WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. AS RESULT...WILL CONTINUE WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ALSO STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADOS THIS AFTERNOON WITH 12Z NASHVILLE SOUNDING SHOWING 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES AROUND 900 M2/S2. THINNING OF CLOUDS EAST OF JKL-HAZARD SUGGEST THIS AREA MAY SEE TSRA DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. && 425 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 CENTER OF KATRINA CONTINUES TO PICK UP SPEED AND TURN MORE TOWARD THE EAST. GFS...WHILE IT HAS HAD THE BEST OVERALL HANDLE ON THE STORM...IS RUNNING A BIT SLOW AND TO THE WEST AT INITIALIZATION. CURRENT MOSAIC SHOWS CONSISTENT BANDS OF MOISTURE NOW BEGINNING TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...OTHERWISE...DOWNSLOPING HAS MITIGATED A LOT OF THE PRECURSOR BANDS FROM KATRINA. LATEST GUIDANCE AND CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA HAS HIGHER FLOOD THREAT TODAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WATCH...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE A BIT LOWER OVERALL WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT...SO WILL FRESHEN UP SOME OF THE CURRENT WORDING...WITH GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. KATRINA HAS BEEN ABLE TO HANG ONTO HER TIGHT GRADIENT A BIT LONGER...AND WITH THE FASTER MOVEMENT...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS NEAR OUR LAKE WIND CRITERIA...SO HAVE KEPT THIS GOING AS WELL. SPC HAS CONCENTRATED THE GREATER TORNADO THREAT EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS FOR TODAY. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE DOWNSLOPING HURT ORGANIZED CELL FORMATION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPS...HOWEVER WITH SO MUCH SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A FEW SPIN-UPS IN THE HWO. LATEST GFS MOS SHOWS THE FASTER EXIT OF KATRINA...AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO ARGUE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...INITIALIZATION STARTED OUT A BIT SLOW...SO HAVE KILLED THE PRECIP PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ONLY HANGING ONTO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM. FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE EXPIRED BEFORE 6 AM WEDNESDAY...BUT DEPENDING ON WHAT MATERIALIZES TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...WOULD RATHER CONTINUE IT LATER IN CASE THERE ARE ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS THAT LAST BEYOND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES BEYOND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED...SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY FORECAST INTACT...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ GREIF 677 FXUS64 KOUN 310234 AFDOUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 934 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE... WE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD AND DEW POINT GRIDS. WE DECREASED THE DEW POINT VALUES ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE WEST. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AGREE WITH LATEST RUC FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE WEAK COLD FRONT BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WE TOOK OUT CLOUD ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHILE INTRODUCING CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. && 67 .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 333 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005) DISCUSSION... A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE A QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... BUT ITS MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO CHANGE THE WIND DIRECTION. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM... BUT MOISTURE WILL BE SCARCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... BUT AT THIS TIME... COVERAGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE QUITE LOW. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT TRAVELS SOUTHEAST... AND LITTLE FURTHER EFFECT IS EXPECTED. MID AND UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS... RESULTING IN RATHER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DO SHOW A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN... BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 32/67 566 FXUS64 KCRP 310235 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 933 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE...A WELL-DEFINED BUT INACTIVE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY NOW ENTERING THE WESTERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE WEST AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. ROGUE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR EAST INVOF OF A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS/VORTICITY MAXIMA AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL PERISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR. CURRENT PACKAGE REQUIRES ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS IN SOME INSTANCES. && .MARINE...A ROGUE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE/FORCING REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. && .AVIATION...THE SEA BREEZE CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND RESULTING IN A WEAK TO MOD E-SE FLOW IN IT'S WAKE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND A SCT DECK BETWEEN 8KFT AND 12KFT WILL GO CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ 85/UPDATE 81/TE...AVIATION 133 FXUS61 KILN 310244 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1044 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE JUST EAST OF CINCINNATI MOVING EAST NORTHEAST. RADAR SHOWS PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS INDIANA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT AND THUS THE THREAT OF FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. THUS DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH EARLY. OTHER THAN FINE TUNING THE PRECIPITATION AND WINDS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED FINE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 757 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) AVIATION (00Z-24Z)... SURFACE LOW IS APPROACHING THE CINCINNATI AREA AND WITH IT COMES A BREAK IN THE STEADY PRECIPITATION. EXPECT THE LOW TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST AND AS IT DOES WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE TAF SITES. APPEARS THAT CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR WITH PRIMARILY MVFR VISIBILITIES OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END OVERNIGHT WITH THE VISIBILITY BECOMING VFR DURING THE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE ALTHOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 305 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN KY THIS AFTERNOON AND A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OR SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY AT TIMES COVERED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY. THIS INDICATES THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL MOVE NE TO THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE NE ALONG A TRACK CLOSE TO THE I-71 CORRIDOR. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS SHOULD BE ENTERING WESTERN NY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z AND THEN TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCHES IN THE SOUTH TILL ABOUT 10Z WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF FORECAST AREA UNTIL ABOUT 16Z WEDNESDAY. SE PART OF CWA HAS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. BY 00Z THURSDAY...KATRINA WILL BE WELL TO OUR NE AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY BUT DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH DYNAMICS OR MOISTURE TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION. SO...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO MAV. LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... FOR FRIDAY...A WEAK BNDRY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...GFS TIME HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE...SO WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY AS WELL AT THIS POINT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER...AND THEN MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. LOOKING AT MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE...HIGH AND LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ 915 FXUS65 KTFX 310244 AFDTFX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 845 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE...HAVE ALREADY UPDATED TO ADD SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN. WILL UPDATE AGAIN TO REMOVE SHOWERS WHERE THEY HAVE ENDED. WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN MY FAR EASTERN ZONES UNTIL MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK. MEIER && .PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 618 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED TO THE EAST AND A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE ZONES. CLEARING SKIES AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS DIP COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA MAY SEE NEAR RECORD LOWS. THE AIRMASS BEGINS ANOTHER WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY...AND WITH CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS THE FORECASTS REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE ZONES ON THURSDAY AND THE FLOW ALOFT SWITCHES TO THE SOUTHWEST. WEAK INSTABILITY RETURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY AND CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. ZELZER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. MOISTURE AND ANY TYPE OF FORCING IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AN UPPER TROF BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS PERIOD DETRACT FROM FORECAST CONFIDENCE. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE AND A COMPROMISE SOLUTION OF A WEAK...RELATIVELY DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING...COOLING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR...OR A LITTLE BELOW...SEASONAL AVERAGES. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES. EK && .AVIATION... UPDATED 0018Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN TWO LINES...ONE FROM CTB TO GTF AND THE OTHER FROM HVR TO SE FERGUS COUNTY WILL GRADUAL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. EXPECT FEW-SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BLANK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 43 76 47 81 / 10 0 0 0 CTB 43 72 45 78 / 10 0 0 10 HLN 42 77 47 82 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 34 75 40 82 / 10 0 0 0 WEY 30 65 30 73 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 34 75 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 45 76 47 83 / 10 0 0 10 LWT 41 73 43 79 / 10 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS 588 FXUS63 KGLD 310250 AFDGLD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 850 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE...MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ADDITION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO AREAS NOT INCLUDED FROM AFTERNOON PACKAGE. OVERALL...PREVIOUS FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. AT 0245Z FRONT HAD PASSED THROUGH GREELEY COLORADO AND JUST WEST OF SIDNEY NEBRASKA. EXTRAPOLATION OF MOVEMENT MIMICS CURRENT NAM/RUC WIND FORECASTS WHICH ARE VERY SIMILAR TO AFTERNOON PACKAGE. I DID ADJUST POPS BASED ON INCREASE IN 700-500 MOISTURE. THIS ENHANCED AREA OF MOISTURE MOVES STEADILY EAST/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH RATHER HIGH THETA-E COVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WARRANTS AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO REDIRECT THE ORIENTATION IN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AND BREAK IT DOWN INTO 3 HOURLY BLOCKS. HAVENT SEEN ANY SITES EXCEEDING 45 MPH GUSTS SO HIGHLITES (WIND ADVISORY) DONT APPEAR NEEDED. ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO TWEAK THE CLOUD GRIDS. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ DDT 299 FXUS66 KMTR 310255 AAA AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA 755 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...IT WAS A WARM DAY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES QUITE ISOTHERMAL ACROSS THE DISTRICT...ANYWHERE FROM THE 70S ALONG THE COAST TO 90S INLAND. THERE WAS ONE RECORD TEMPERATURE SET TODAY... AT SFO WHERE IT REACHED 87 WHICH BROKE THE RECORD OF 85 SET IN 1968. TONIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH NO MARINE LAYER TO SPEAK OF AND SATL IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CALIFORNIA...WITH A LITTLE STRATUS ALONG THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. THE ETA12 KEEPS SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES. A WEAK TROF EDGES TO THE COAST LATE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP AN INVERSION LATE IN THE DAY AS INLAND H85 TEMPS INCR FROM 21C TO 24C. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS INLAND AND A SEABREEZE TO THE COAST W/COOLER TEMPS. STRATUS DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH COASTAL LOW CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES. && .PREVIOUS AVIATION...THE COAST REMAINS CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. VFR CONDS LOOK TO PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS NOT LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE COAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 20-60 NM OUT. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: STROBIN MARINE/AVIATION: SELLERS/WEAGLE NOAA'S NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO 914 FXUS66 KMTR 310256 AAA AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA 755 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...IT WAS A WARM DAY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES QUITE ISOTHERMAL ACROSS THE DISTRICT...ANYWHERE FROM THE 70S ALONG THE COAST TO 90S INLAND. THERE WAS ONE RECORD TEMPERATURE SET TODAY... AT SFO WHERE IT REACHED 87 WHICH BROKE THE RECORD OF 85 SET IN 1968. TONIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH NO MARINE LAYER TO SPEAK OF AND SATL IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CALIFORNIA...WITH A LITTLE STRATUS ALONG THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. THE ETA12 KEEPS SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES. A WEAK TROF EDGES TO THE COAST LATE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP AN INVERSION LATE IN THE DAY AS INLAND H85 TEMPS INCR FROM 21C TO 24C. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS INLAND AND A SEABREEZE TO THE COAST W/COOLER TEMPS. STRATUS DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH COASTAL LOW CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES. && .PREVIOUS AVIATION...THE COAST REMAINS CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. VFR CONDS LOOK TO PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS NOT LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE COAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 20-60 NM OUT. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: STROBIN MARINE/AVIATION: SELLERS/WEAGLE NOAA'S NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO 788 FXUS63 KLOT 310259 CCA AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 715 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 ...PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE... RAIN FROM KATRINA BEEN HOLDING THIS MORNING JUST SE OF BENTON CTY IN WITH CHI OVER ENTIRE AREA ALONG WITH A LITTLE BAND OF CU. NAM HAD ITS USUAL INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS BUT DOES NOT SEEM TO MATTER FOR OUR FORECAST AS ALL MODELS SIMILIAR. BUT NAM JUST HORRIBLE WITH ITS QPF FORECAST TO OUR SE. GFS LOOKS BEST AND FOLLOWED. EVEN THE OLD NGM BETTER THAN THE NAM. NAM TRULY TORTURED TODAY. AFTER KATRINA EXITS NEXT THING TO WATCH IS TROF COMING FROM NW. THIS SHOULD PASS N OF AREA WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WITH ITS DYNAMICS SO NO PRECIP IN FORECAST. AFTER THAT RIDGE BUILDS OVER PLAINS PUSHING JET BACK IN S CANADA. WITH 588 COUNTOUR COMING OVERHEAD TEMPS TO WARM AGAIN AT LEAST INTO THE L80S, MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE MORE SO WILL UP LATER PERIOD TEMPS. SHOULD BE LARGE DIURNAL RANGE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LO DPS. WILL HOLD ONTO SMALL CHANCE PRECIP XTRM SE THIS EVE, PROBABLY JUST BENTON COUNTY. ALL OTHER PERIODS DRY. AF && .AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z... MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE ON WINDS AND POSSIBILITY OF ANY LOW CLOUDS REFORMING OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF KATRINA IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY WITH STRONGEST 3-HR SFC PRESSURE FALLS NOW ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. AS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ACROSS ORD/MDW/GYY THROUGH 04Z...AND WILL OMIT GUSTS ACROSS DPA/RFD. PRECIP SHIELD WHICH HAD NUDGED INTO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS NOW BEGINNING TO RECEDE AS NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK THIS EVENING TO A DRIER NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY. IN TERMS OF SKY COVER...MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT TERMINALS TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SCATTERING TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING. NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUD REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT WITHIN LOWEST 25-50 MB WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME IN THIS SCENARIO GIVEN MOIST LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY THIN AND SO FOR NOW WILL TREND TAFS TO MENTION OF JUST FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 800 FT AFT 08Z. DIURNAL MIXING EXPECTED TO KEEP WINDS UP AROUND 10 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY FROM 340-360 DEGREES WITH SCT CU DECK EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING BASED AROUND 3-4K FEET. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING JUST OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. NDM && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LK MI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IL IN SHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. $$ 192 FXUS66 KMFR 310301 AFDMFR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...00Z NGM/NAM IN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL TONIGHT OVER THE MEDFORD CWA AND OFFSHORE TOO. FLAT RIDGING ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY STREAM THROUGH THE AREA. AT LOW LEVELS THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST BUT WEAKEN. SO EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE COASTAL AREAS...BEGINNING TONIGHT FROM CAPE BLANCO NORTH...AND MOVING INTO THE SOUTH COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEXT BIG CHANGE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ONE... MOSTLY ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...FLORENCE OR TO OR/CA BORDER 0-60 NM. CA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OR/CA BORDER TO PT ST GEORGE CA 0-60 NM. && $$ STOCKTON ALSO VISIT THE NWS ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD 832 FXUS65 KGGW 310302 AFDGGW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 855 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT... STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AS IT HAS CLOSED OFF MOVING ENE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. THIS CIRCULATION SEEN ON INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES WITH AREA OF COLDER TOPPED CLOUDS AND MOST OF THE SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS MOTION AND THE MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LOW WILL NOT EXIT OUR EAST UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...REQUIRING CHANCE POPS TO BE ADDED AS WELL AS UPDATE TO EVENING POPS. MEANWHILE RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUDS TOPS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAD BEEN IN SHERIDAN COUNTY...BUT MOVING NNE OUT OF OUR AREA NOW...SO WILL NOT MENTION. CLEARING SHOULD STILL REACH OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS WITH THE VERY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE IN OUR EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW IN ND...BUT ELSEWHERE WINDS IN OUR WEST HAVE QUICKLY DIMINISHED. THE MUCH WEAKER GRADIENTS WILL SPREAD EAST AND EXPECT LAKE WINDS TO SOON DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO HAVE LET EXPIRE. UPDATES TO ALL PRODUCTS. SIMONSEN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT...WHICH MOVES INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE WEST BY THURSDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL WARMING AS A SLIGHT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY IN GOOD SHAPE GENERALLY. HOWEVER MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS UP A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT FOR EASTERN COUNTIES DUE TO CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AT SUNSET TO COINCIDE WITH ENDING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. WEDNESDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR EXCEPT FOR FOR SOME CUMULUS WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AREA. THE AIR ELSEWHERE WILL BE DRY AND STABLE AS TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT BUT REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AGAIN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY STRENGTH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO COOL BELOW NORMAL INTO THE MID 40S. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AT SUNSET AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. THURSDAY...THICKNESS WILL INCREASE TO ALLOW FOR WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DIMINISHED MID LEVEL WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO GENERATE MODERATE SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. ST .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY... NO CHANGES TO LONG TERM AS FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT MODEL TREND. FLAT RIDGE DOMINATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TROF MOVING ACROSS MONTANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. EBERT PREVIOUS LONG TERM... BROAD AND PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE REGIONAL WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF WEEKEND BEFORE TRANSITION TO BROAD FLAT TROUGH LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE EARLY IN PERIOD...BUT ECMWF TENDING A BIT QUICKER MOVEMENT EAST ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE FAVORED SLOWER SOLUTION OF CANADIAN/GFS. GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWING GOOD INTERNAL CONSISTENCY OF COMPONENTS THROUGH THIS EARLIER PERIOD. BEGINNING SUNDAY...GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWS MORE SCATTER BUT BULK OF COMPONENTS REMAIN SLOW TO MOVE TROUGH EAST. LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MODELS DIFFER ON DEPTH OF UPPER TROUGH. GFS AND CANADIAN FAVORED WITH SHALLOWER SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS BULK OF ENERGY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...THUS FAVORING DRY SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES BASED LARGELY ON GFS ENSEMBLE...WHICH SHOWS LIMITED SCATTER IN TEMPERATURE RANGES OF COMPONENTS...WITH WARMING TREND PEAKING SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY COOLING MONDAY/TUESDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE IS DISPLACED INTO DAKOTAS. CURRENTLY EXPECT DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BECAUSE OF LITTLE SIGN OF MOISTURE IN MODELS AND CLIMATOLOGY OF SEPTEMBER...WHICH RAPIDLY DRIES OUT AFTER SUMMER CONVECTIVE SEASON ...AND NO SIGN OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED FROM LATE SEASON TROPICAL STORMS. && .AVIATION...WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FROM EAST TO WEST. CLOUD DECK AROUND 7000 FEET AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. GFF && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW 507 FXUS64 KLZK 310303 AAA AFDLZK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 1005 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE... CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WERE COSMETIC CHANGES IN THE TEXT PRODUCTS. ALL UPDATES GONE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 214 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOMINATED BY THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA AND A SIGNIFICANT TROF MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GFS OPENS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA INTO AN OPEN WAVE QUICKER THAN THE NAM BUT OVERALL...SHORT TERM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH BOTH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE MAJOR PLAYERS. WITH RATHER BENIGN PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE REGION...WILL FOLLOW THE LEAD OF THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL OF LATE. REMNANTS OF KATRINA...CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALL THAT REMAINS IS JUST A FEW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM...HIGH PRESSURE AND CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP EVEN AFTERNOON CUMULUS AT A MINIMUM. STRONG TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE REFLECTION DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY BUT MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE ABSENT AND WILL GO WITH A DRY FROPA. ITS PASSAGE WILL BE MARKED ONLY BY A WIND SHIFT AND A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS COMING IN BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BE THE DOMINATE SURFACE WEATHER FEATURE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL VIRTUALLY BE ZERO AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ONCE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM. MODELS DO ATTEMPT TO MOVE A WEAK SHORT WAVE OR TWO THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT VERY LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL FROPA THURSDAY AND THEN SLIDE BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW FOR DAYS THREE AND FOUR. MAV/FWC NUMBERS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF NUMBERS. LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE UNEVENTFUL. RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD ITS OWN THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A LARGE HIGH AT SURFACE STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEAST AND REACHING ACROSS ARKANSAS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING A BIT OF COOLING TO OUR TEMPS. NO MAJOR INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL RIDE ALONG THOSE WINDS...SO A DRY FORECAST. TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING CLOSER TO NORMALS OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE. && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 22 575 FXUS61 KLWX 310313 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1113 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT TO CLEAR MOST OF TORNADO WATCH 762. WILL RETAIN WATCH TIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE DC METRO AREA. DID SOME POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST MODELS RUNS. ANOTHER UPDATE OUT LATER TONIGHT. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 716 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPDATED PUBLIC PRODUCTS ALREADY RELEASED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH 762 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT. SEE W/W/A AT THE END OF THIS AFD FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. REST OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED ATTM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 240 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TNGT/WED)... MOST OF MY ENERGY HAS BEEN SPENT ON THE TNGT PD AND ANALYZING THE SVR THREAT. I REMAIN UNDERWHELMED BY THE VWP I'M SEEING FM THE KLWX 88D. AIR MASS OVR OUR CWA HAS A HIGH THETA-E BUT XTNSV CLD CVR IS LIMITING THE AIRS ABILITY TO ASCEND. I AM NOTING THAT IF BRKS DVLP STORMS COULD DVLP RAPIDLY...PRODUCING HVY RAIN...BUT IN THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA SPIN IS MINIMAL. WE DO HV TOR WTCH BOXES TO OUR S AND W. SPOKE W/ SPC FOR THEIR THOUGHTS AND WAS TOLD THAT THEY WL WAIT AND SEE WHAT DVLPS B4 ISSUING ANYTHING FOR OUR CWA. WL MAINTAIN PSBL SVR WRDNG IN ZNS. CHC POPS RMN ON WED AS KATRINA REMNANTS MV INTO NEW ENGLAND. WOODY! LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-TUE) EXTENDED FCST LOOKS PRETTY NICE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S AND 50S AT NIGHT. NO RAIN IS IN SIGHT THRU THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. ROSA AVIATION...MAIN PROBLEM WL BE RAPID REDUCTIONS IN VSBLTY THIS EVE IN HVY RA WHERE TSTMS DVLP OVER AIRPORTS. MARINE...SCA ALL WATERS. G30 PSBL ON THE CHES BAY BTWN SRLY GRADIENT AND CHANNELING. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...TORNADO WATCH FOR DCZ001 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. MD...TORNADO WATCH FOR MDZ004-009-013 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. VA...TORNADO WATCH FOR VAZ042-053-054 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>537 UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY. ...TORNADO WATCH FOR ANZ535 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...PELOQUIN PREV DISCUSSION...WOODY!/ROSA 458 FXUS65 KSLC 310320 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 920 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MID WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING AS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEHIND THIS FRONT IMPRESSIVE 15C DROP IN TEMPERATURE THROUGH 750MB ON KSLC SOUNDING. AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND WILL LIKELY SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN HIGH ELEVATIONS VALLEYS SUCH AS RANDOLPH...IN ADDITION TO THE UINTAS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO SPREAD ACROSS FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY. GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO UPDATES PLANNED. && .FIRE WEATHER...WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS EASTERN UTAH THIS EVENING BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT...AND WILL REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE ALLOWED RED FLAG WARNING WHICH WAS IN EFFECT TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM. && .AVIATION...NONE. SEE SLCTAFSLC. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ SEAMAN 706 FXUS66 KSEW 310326 AFDSEW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 830 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...BRUSHING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL RENEW THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM...A BASICALLY ZONAL PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED E OF 150W. SATELLITE PICS SHOW A BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG ROUGHLY 50N INTO BC. LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH CLOUDS TAPERING OFF TO SCTD CONDITIONS FURTHER S. THE DIGGING TROF VS 160W SHOULD DEEPEN THE TROF WELL OFFSHORE WITH CORRESPONDING RIDGING ALOFT OVER OUR AREA PER THE 12Z/18Z PROGS. YET..THE 00Z NAM SHOWS THE ZONAL FLOW REMAINS WITH EVEN SOME PRECIP OVER NRN SECTIONS INTO THU. THE 00Z GFS IS NOT IN AT THIS POINT..SO WILL AWAIT ITS ARRIVAL TO COMPARE BUT SUSPECT NO CHANGE TO THE CURRENT DRY FORECAST FOR THU/FRI AT THIS TIME. BUEHNER && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH BC WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS FROM KPAE NWD. PATCHY STRATUS WILL ALSO FORM ALONG THE COAST AFTER 08Z AND INLAND AROUND 12Z...PRODUCING ISOLATED MVFR CIGS THROUGH WED MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE TURNED NLY THROUGH WRN WA...AND THE WIND AT KSEA WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO LIGHT NLY BY 04Z. MCDONNAL && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && .KATX...VCP21/CSR21 OPERATIONAL. $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE 607 FXUS65 KBOI 310331 CCA AFDBOI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID 930 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 DISCUSSION...PRESENT FORECAST ON TRACK. TOOK SKY COVER DOWN TO NEARLY ZERO AND RELEASED AN UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING...NO FURTHER UPDATES WARRANTED. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 MPH BY 05Z. WEDNESDAY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...COOL UPPER TROUGH NOW EXITING EAST BUT TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL. BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL COME IN OFF PACIFIC TUESDAY AND STAY WITH US THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING CLEAR AND WARMER WX. MAX TEMPS WILL INCREASE 5-7 DEGS DAILY THROUGH FRIDAY ...FRI REACHING THE 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UP TO THE MID 90S IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. MIN TEMPS WILL RISE MORE SLOWLY...GENERALLY 2-4 DEGS EACH NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT WITH LESS SPREAD THAN YESTERDAY. THE TROUGH COMING THROUGH ON SUNDAY IS STILL PORTRAYED AS SHALLOW AND PROGRESSIVE SO WE CANT EXPECT MUCH WEATHER OR COOLING. THERE IS SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION FROM THE DGEX AND ECMWF AS WELL AS GFS 00Z AND 06Z OPERATIONAL RUNS BUT THE 12Z GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND SLOWER...AND THE CANADIAN AND NOGAPS ARE QUITE A BIT DEEPER. WE ARE STAYING WITH THE SHALLOWER MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS AT LEAST FOR NOW. POPS ARE UNDER 10 PERCENT EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY COOLING TO NORMAL SUNDAY THEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BOISE DISCUSSION........SP AVIATION..........JA PREV SHORT TERM...LC PREV LONG TERM....JT 828 FXUS66 KLOX 310332 AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 830 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING PATCHES OF STRATUS RETURNING TO PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE LA COUNTY COAST AND ADJACENT SANTA MONICA BAY AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OFF THE COAST OF ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES AS WELL. THIS INFLUX OF MARINE AIR IS EVIDENT ON ACARS AND LAX PROFILER DATA WHERE THERE HAS BEEN A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SINCE YESTERDAY. MOST COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS DID SEE 3 TO 5 DEGREES OF COOLING TODAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE OBSERVED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGING VERY LITTLE OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE ONSHORE GRADIENTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL MARINE LAYER PATTERN. AT THE MOMENT... ACARS AND PROFILER DATA SHOWING MARINE LAYER DEPTH BETWEEN 1000 AND 1200 FEET. BEST CHANCE FOR STRATUS COVERAGE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO ACROSS LA BASIN...WITH PATCHIER COVERAGE ACROSS OTHER COASTAL ZONES. .LONG TERM...AGAIN LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. && .AVIATION... CEILING RETURNED TO KLAX AT 03Z THIS EVENING...WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS SANTA MONICA BAY AND SOUTH OF LONG BEACH. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WOULD EXPECT MOST WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVERNIGHT ACORSS LA BASIN...INLCLUDING KLAX AND KLGB...WITH PATCHIER COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE VENTURA COUNTY COAST AND CENTRAL COAST. WITH MARINE LAYER DEPTH STILL QUITE SHALLOW...DO NOT EXPECT ANY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG TO SPREAD INLAND INTO KBUR OR KVNY. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...GOMBERG AVIATION...GOMBERG/BRUNO 690 FXUS66 KSGX 310337 AFDSGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 930 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...ONSHORE FLOW AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...EXTENDING LOCALLY INLAND. WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A LITTLE COOLING THROUGH MID WEEK. SLIGHTLY WARMER THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THEN COOLER AGAIN NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALOFT. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... THERE WERE AREAS OF STRATUS ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING. THE 00Z NKX SOUNDING HAD AN INVERSION BASED NEAR 1700 FT WITH DRY WLY WIND ALOFT. ONSHORE GRADIENTS WITH 7-8 MB SAN-IPL. WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND AN INTERMITTENT COASTAL EDDY CIRCULATION WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER. THIS WILL CAUSE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...EXTENDING INTO THE FAR WRN INLAND SAN VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS THROUGH THU. A LITTLE COOLING IN MOST AREAS WED AND THU...MAINLY INLAND. SLIGHTLY WARMER FRI AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE E. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO CAUSE A LITTLE DECREASE IN THE MARINE LAYER. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE LOCAL DENSE FOG NEAR THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE STRATUS EACH MORNING. ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL CAUSE THE USUAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WITH LOCAL GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. LONGER RANGE PROGS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE SAT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE W COAST DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK FOR A LITTLE COOLING AND DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED FAIR WITH DRY FLOW ALOFT. && .AVIATION...ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE INVERSION HAD LIFTED TO AROUND 1300 FEET...SO LOW CLOUDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS LOW OVERNIGHT WITH BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN 800 AND 1500 FEET MSL...LOWEST IN ORANGE COUNTY. SOME LOCAL VSBYS COULD BE UNDER 1 MILE OVER HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN AND MESAS. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR BY 18Z IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT AT THE BEACHES. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...ATKIN AVIATION...MAXWELL 236 FXUS66 KHNX 310346 AFDHNX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA 845 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VALLEY THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN RUNNING SOME 3 TO 7 DEG-F DOWN FROM THAT OF MONDAY EVENING. ACROSS THE REST OF THE DISTRICT... TEMPERATURES HAVE SEEN LITTLE CHANGE. LOOKING AT THE FORT ORD PROFILER...NOT MUCH OF A MARINE LAYER WAS OBSERVED TODAY. YET...SOME MARINE AIR WAS ABLE TO CROSS THE COASTAL RANGE AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTED IN AFTERNOON TEMP/S RUNNING SOME DEGREES DOWN FROM THAT OF MONDAY. WHILE MODELS DO QUICKLY RECOVER AFTERNOON MAX VALUES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAY NOT SEE A 10 DEG-F RISE ON JUST ONE DAY AFTER HAVING VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THEREFORE...WILL UPDATE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY TO LOWER MAX TEMP/S SOME 5 DEG-F. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS THIS EVENING AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z THURSDAY. SPECIFIC DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT AND KBFL. && .HNX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/ MOLINA 293 FXUS66 KPQR 310357 AFDPQR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR 857 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO MOST OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL BRUSH SOME CLOUDS AT TIMES ALONG ACROSS THE FAR NORTH PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTH COAST ZONES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND PRODUCE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND... POSSIBLY GIVING US SOME PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .SHORT TERM...CLOUDS STILL BRUSHING THE NORTH PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...MAINLY UP IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. THE MOST SOLID AREA IS ALONG THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES NORTHEAST OF KELSO. THESE ARE BEING PRODUCED BY A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING BY WELL NORTH UP IN SOUTHERN B.C. AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON. THE REST OF OUR AREA IS CLEAR THIS EVENING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A LITTLE ENERGY AGAIN PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS MAINLY WILL AFFECT SOME CLOUDS IN THE FAR NORTH AND ON THE COAST. IT MAY ALSO COAX A LITTLE LOW CLOUDINESS TO COME DOWN THE COLUMBIA RIVER WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON THURSDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS A BIT TO SOUTHWESTERLY THAT INCREASES THE ONSHORE FLOW ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST...BUT HELPS MOVE THE ENERGY THAT HAD BEEN PASSING BY NORTH OF OUR AREA TO BE EVEN FARTHER NORTH. ON FRIDAY THE ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH WELL EAST OF THE CASCADES AS THE OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH SAGS CLOSER AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME COOLING AND A GREATER EXTENT OF MORNING CLOUDS. THE COAST WILL PROBABLY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NEW 00Z NGM AND ETA EVEN SUGGESTS A LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE 18Z GFS IS SLOWER AND WEAKER BRINGING ANYTHING IN. WILL MONITOR THE NEXT GFS RUN BUT FOR NOW STAY WITH THE GFS AS ESPECIALLY THE ETA COULD BE INFLUENCED BY BOUNDARY CONDITIONS ALONG ITS WESTERN BOUNDARY. TOLLESON .LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... GFS STRONGEST ON TROUGH FOR WEEKEND THROUGH EURO ONLY SLIGHTLY WEAKER. GFS SHOWS SOLID RAIN THREAT FOR AT LEAST COAST ON SAT SPREADING INLAND SAT NIGHT. WILL LEAVE AS CHANCE FOR NOW WHICH WOULD BE CLOSER TO EURO SOLUTION. WILL STILL LEAVE SHOWER THREAT NORTH SUN ESPECIALLY NORTHERN COAST AND MOUNTAINS AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS N FROM SOUTHERN ORE. MON/TUE LOOK TO BE BEST DAYS WITH WARMING TEMPS. KOSOVITZ && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS ON THE COAST OVERNIGHT. INLAND AREAS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY WED AS THE LOWER LEVELS STABILIZES...ESPECIALLY AT KEUG. LOCALIZED LOW MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY BE MORE DOMINANT AROUND KTTD & KPDX. && .PRELIMINARY POINT POPS AST --0-11 PDX 000000 SLE 000000 EUG 000000 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES .WA/OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR TONIGHT. && $$ MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA. 701 FXUS65 KVEF 310404 AFDVEF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 904 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TO STAY OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOHAVE DESERT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .UPDATE...NO CHANGE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 230 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SHORT TERM...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW THOSE ON MONDAY AS COOL AIR MOVES OVER THE DISTRICT. GENERALLY FLAT WESTERLY FLOW TO BE OVER THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTHERN RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD BACK TO THE WEST. WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP TEMPS AROUND NORMAL READINGS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY GFS/NAM BEGINNING TO SHOW DIFFERENCES AS NAM KEEPS AREA UNDER MORE WESTERLY/SOUTHWEST FLOW WHILE GFS TRENDING MORE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH FLOW. UNDER GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH 1 INCH READING PUSHING NORTH INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF SAN BERNARDINO/MOHAVE COUNTIES. LI VALUES ALSO DROP TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOHAVE CNTY. NAM MUCH MORE STABLE/DRY. PER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS TO THE SOUTH/EAST TRENDED TOWARDS THE DRIER NAM FOR NOW WHICH LOOKS LIKE BEST BET AS FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IN PLACE ATTM. IN ADDITION SOUTH FLOW AROUND HIGH EVEN PER GFS WOULD PLACE MAIN MOISTURE INCREASE TO THE EAST OF CWA. THUS KEEPING CWA DRY INTO THURSDAY. LITTLE CHANGE TO PATTERN INTO FRIDAY WITH BOTH MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD KEEP RELATIVELY DRY FLOW INTO THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD BUMP UP A DEGREE OR TWO UNDER THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...BUT OVERALL BE NEAR NORMAL INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. .LONG TERM...GFS/DGEX CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST FRIDAY WITH SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO MOHAVE COUNTY. THE MOISTURE IS THEN FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE EURO/UKMET ALSO SHOW A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINING OVER THE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP A DRIER FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOHAVE COUNTY FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN ADJUST AS TIME NEARS. WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE POPS FROM MUCH OF LINCOLN AND THE SOUTHERN NEVADA MOUNTAINS AS THE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN EAST. .AVIATION...TAF ADEQUATELY COVERS ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT KLAS. .VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NV...NONE. .AZ...NONE. .CA...NONE. && $$ MORGAN/JENSEN/GORELOW 052 FXUS65 KTWC 310407 AFDTWC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 900 PM MST TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO A MINIMUM AND KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON THE HOT SIDE INTO MID WEEK. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. && .DISCUSSION...DRY WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING. SURFACE DEWPTS ARE CREEPING BACK INTO THE 50S IN SPOTS. 00Z KTUS SOUNDING SHOWED 0.92 OF AN INCH...GOES SOUNDER ESTIMATES SHOW THAT OR LESS FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR A NARROW TONGUE OF SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL SONORA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PIMA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. SAW SOME VERY ISOLATED BUILDUPS JUST OVER THE BORDER THERE EARLIER...BUT ALL SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WAS WITH A COMPLEX SOUTH OF THE BORDER IN EASTERN SONORA. WITH THE HIGH CENTER RECONSOLIDATING JUST EAST OF US OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS...EXPECT THE RESULTANT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO HELP GUIDE SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY BACK INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. NOT TERRIBLY WIDESPREAD...BUT MORE THAN THE ZEROS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS TREND SHOWS OKAY ON THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE...MIGHT NEED TO PULL THE ISOLATED COVERAGE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST EARLIER. && .AVIATION...TAF AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AT KTUS. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON 302 FXUS66 KPDT 310408 AFDPDT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR 907 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE CASCADES AND THE EASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON BORDER. THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS CLEAR. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO TWEAK CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND REMOVE EVENING WIND WORDING. NEW MODEL RUNS KEEP ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH JET REMAINING IN CANADA THROUGH THURSDAY. COONFIELD && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TAF AND TWEBS REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 244 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING INTO THE PACNW AND SHOULD SPREAD SOME MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT THE POSSIBILITY OF A RECORD LOW OCCURRING IN MEACHAM. FOR TOMORROW THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WHICH WILL MOVE ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA MAINLY THROUGH WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE AND AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN BY THURSDAY. LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH THIS CONSISTENCY...I AM CONFIDENT IN INTRODUCING A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS (LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN...KITTITAS VALLEY...YAKIMA VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES...OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...IF ANY...WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND WILL NOT HELP TO ALLEVIATE THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. POLAN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 52 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 55 85 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 49 87 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 47 84 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 48 86 53 88 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 49 81 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 39 84 42 86 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 45 83 48 88 / 0 0 0 0 5J0 44 86 46 88 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 55 86 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. && $$ TI:GGG FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON 76/76/76 738 FXUS61 KLWX 310425 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1225 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY TO COMPLETELY REMOVE TORNADO WATCH 762. ALSO DID MINOR POP TWEAKS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...MAINLY SLIGHT REDUCTIONS EVERYWHERE BUT NORTH AND WEST. && .AVIATION... WINDS SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM FORMING AND LOWERING VISIBILITIES TONIGHT. MIGHT HAVE TO DEAL WITH STRATUS LOWERING CEILINGS INTO AT LEAST IFR UNTIL 14Z. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND MANY TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ATTM TO INTRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1113 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT TO CLEAR MOST OF TORNADO WATCH 762. WILL RETAIN WATCH TIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE DC METRO AREA. DID SOME POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST MODELS RUNS. ANOTHER UPDATE OUT LATER TONIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 716 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPDATED PUBLIC PRODUCTS ALREADY RELEASED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH 762 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT. SEE W/W/A AT THE END OF THIS AFD FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. REST OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED ATTM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 240 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TNGT/WED)... MOST OF MY ENERGY HAS BEEN SPENT ON THE TNGT PD AND ANALYZING THE SVR THREAT. I REMAIN UNDERWHELMED BY THE VWP I'M SEEING FM THE KLWX 88D. AIR MASS OVR OUR CWA HAS A HIGH THETA-E BUT XTNSV CLD CVR IS LIMITING THE AIRS ABILITY TO ASCEND. I AM NOTING THAT IF BRKS DVLP STORMS COULD DVLP RAPIDLY...PRODUCING HVY RAIN...BUT IN THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA SPIN IS MINIMAL. WE DO HV TOR WTCH BOXES TO OUR S AND W. SPOKE W/ SPC FOR THEIR THOUGHTS AND WAS TOLD THAT THEY WL WAIT AND SEE WHAT DVLPS B4 ISSUING ANYTHING FOR OUR CWA. WL MAINTAIN PSBL SVR WRDNG IN ZNS. CHC POPS RMN ON WED AS KATRINA REMNANTS MV INTO NEW ENGLAND. WOODY! LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-TUE) EXTENDED FCST LOOKS PRETTY NICE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S AND 50S AT NIGHT. NO RAIN IS IN SIGHT THRU THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. ROSA AVIATION...MAIN PROBLEM WL BE RAPID REDUCTIONS IN VSBLTY THIS EVE IN HVY RA WHERE TSTMS DVLP OVER AIRPORTS. MARINE...SCA ALL WATERS. G30 PSBL ON THE CHES BAY BTWN SRLY GRADIENT AND CHANNELING. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>537 UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY. && $$ UPDATED SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PELOQUIN PREV DISCUSSIONS...PELOQUIN/WOODY!/ROSA 859 FXUS65 KPSR 310431 AFDPSR AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-311200- AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 930 PM MST TUE AUG 30 2005 SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY FOR A CONTINUED DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. BY THURSDAY THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX THURSDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER A LITTLE EACH DAY AND BECOME CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... AMS VERY DRY AND STABLE ACROSS THE PHX CWA TODAY...THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE STATE...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. SATELLITE PIX THIS EVENING SHOW CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR CWA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SETTLE THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR S FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOR A DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. HOWEVER...OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PAC NW WHICH WILL BUILD THE RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR A MORE MOIST SELY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THAT SAID...MODELS ARE STILL VERY CONSERVATIVE WITH REGARDS TO ANY MOISTURE INCREASE...WITH THE 850MB DEWPOINT BARELY REACHING 9 DEG C AT PHX...12 DEG C ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EASTERN AREAS...BY FRIDAY. DAY SHIFT CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCES OVER MUCH OF ZONE 24 THRU THE WEEKEND...AND THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD. AS DISCUSSED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT S OF THE BORDER NEXT FEW EVENINGS. THESE NEARLY UNFORECASTABLE EVENTS COULD GIVE A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF MOISTURE AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY WARRANT MOVING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP AREA FURTHER TO THE W. MEANWHILE...TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO VERY GRADUALLY LOWER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ARE NOT THAT FAR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS....WITH AMS ABNORMALLY DRY FOR LATE AUGUST...WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REALIZE THESE HOT TEMPS. MERCURIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW EXCESSIVE HEAT LEVELS TOMORROW...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 03Z EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE BELOW EXCESSIVE HEAT LEVELS. && .AVIATION... DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS. TAFS ADEQUATELY DEPICT CURRENT AND EXPECTED WEATHER FOR PHX...IWA...YUM...BLH AND IPL. SEE TAFS PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. && $$ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX 22/ESTLE 679 FXUS66 KSTO 310441 AFDSTO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA 900 PM TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION... FAIRLY FLAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL LIMIT CHANGES TO FAIR WEATHER FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAIN ISSUE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL BE MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH IS GENERATING BREEZY NORTH WINDS ACROSS MAINLY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE SLACKENED SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE QUITE A BIT FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...EXPECT A TIGHTER NORTHEAST SURFACE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS DURING THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY DOWN SOUTHWEST FACING CANYONS LIKE THE FEATHER RIVER DRAINAGE AND ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. RH VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS IN THE NORTHERN SAC VALLEY AND SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS SO WILL LET RED FLAG WARNING RIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GFS MODEL REALLY DROPS OFF THE GRADIENT BY 18Z WEDNESDAY SO MAY BE ABLE TO DROP CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING A LITTLE EARLIER THAN CURRENT 6 PM EXPIRATION TIME. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...850 MB TEMPS ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT RISE WITH 1000 TO 500 MB THICKNESS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT THE SAME ON WEDNESDAY AS TODAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY TO ONLY BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN TODAY. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AS WELL UNDER GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. SHOULD SEE A LITTLE COOLING FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASED DELTA BREEZE BY AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR BIGGER COOLING IN THE SACRAMENTO AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. NORTH WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 5 TO 15 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS. THE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES. ELSEWHERE THE WINDS HAVE BECOME VARIABLE AND LESS THAN 10 MPH. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING...THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR FIRE WX ZONES 213...215...216...263...264...266 FOR GUSTY NORTH WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. && $$ 538 FXUS63 KUNR 310443 AFDUNR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 1030 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE MAP HAS FRONT THROUGH ALL OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA EXCEPT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WHERE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD. WINDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING...SO ALLOWED WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH WIND ADVISORY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUING TILL MIDNIGHT. DUST ADVISORY FOR RAPID CITY HAS ALSO BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KHEI...TO EAST OF KRAP...TO NEAR KCDR...AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN WY. WINDS SLOWLY PICKING UP BEHIND FRONT...BUT STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN AREA OF STRONGER PRESSURE RISES MOVE ACROSS AND BETTER CAA REGIME TAKES SHAPE. UPPER LEVEL WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MT AND NORTHERN WY WITH AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THESE AREAS. NOT SURE MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT HERE...BUT STILL THINKING THAT SOME ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION COULD GET GOING...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE HILLS...BY EVENING AS TROF GETS CLOSER AND LAPSE RATES INCREASE. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...EXPECT WINDS TO KEEP INCREASING. WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR AREAS CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN IT...BUT TIME FRAME FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A LITTLE FURTHER. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS TAKE SHAPE...THE ADVISORY MAY EVEN NEED TO BE EXTENDED A LITTLE BIT TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCE FOR PCPN TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE HILLS...ESPECIALLY AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS CATCH UP WITH COLD FRONT. CAPES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL SD THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AROUND 06Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER....BUT STILL REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SD PLAINS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT AND LOW LEVEL JET LINGERS. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME FAIR WX CU POPPING UP. NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT AFTER WEDNESDAY. ZONAL FLOW AND THEN SOME WEAK RIDGING LATER IN THE WEEK WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. AFTER A SEASONABLY WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS. EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. LAST FEW RUNS OF GFS HAS BEEN PUSHING UPPER TROF INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEREFORE DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY. && .AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS AT KRAP AND KGCC WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEHIND COLD FRONT WHICH HAS NOW PUSHED INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WHICH WILL WOULD AFFECT ALL TWEB RTES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW. && .UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING... WY...NONE. && $$ 980 FXUS65 KTFX 310443 AFDTFX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 1045 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .UPDATE...HAVE ALREADY UPDATED TO ADD SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN. WILL UPDATE AGAIN TO REMOVE SHOWERS WHERE THEY HAVE ENDED. WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN MY FAR EASTERN ZONES UNTIL MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK. MEIER && .PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 618 PM MDT TUE AUG 30 2005...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED TO THE EAST AND A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE ZONES. CLEARING SKIES AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS DIP COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT...AND SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA MAY SEE NEAR RECORD LOWS. THE AIRMASS BEGINS ANOTHER WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DRY...AND WITH CONTINUED STABLE CONDITIONS THE FORECASTS REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE ZONES ON THURSDAY AND THE FLOW ALOFT SWITCHES TO THE SOUTHWEST. WEAK INSTABILITY RETURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY AND CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. ZELZER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. MOISTURE AND ANY TYPE OF FORCING IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AN UPPER TROF BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS PERIOD DETRACT FROM FORECAST CONFIDENCE. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE AND A COMPROMISE SOLUTION OF A WEAK...RELATIVELY DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTS IN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA BY MONDAY MORNING...COOLING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR...OR A LITTLE BELOW...SEASONAL AVERAGES. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES. EK && .AVIATION... UPDATED 0445Z. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE EASTERN ZONES BY SUNRISE. EXPECT FEW-SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY EVENING EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER CTB AND POSSIBLY HVR AS WELL. BLANK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 43 76 47 81 / 10 0 0 0 CTB 43 72 45 78 / 10 0 0 10 HLN 42 77 47 82 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 34 75 40 82 / 10 0 0 0 WEY 30 65 30 73 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 34 75 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 45 76 47 83 / 10 0 0 10 LWT 41 73 43 79 / 10 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS 520 FXUS61 KPHI 310446 AAB AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1245 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005 .UPDATE NUMBER TWO... GOING TO BOOST WINDS CLOSE TO SCA CONDS IN DE BAY AS SE FLOW HAS INCREASED. TFG PREV UPDATES/AFD.................................................. .UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE PACKAGE TO LOWER POPS TO CHANCE ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED RADAR TRENDS. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL PA AND THESE ARE MOVING TO THE NE. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED IN NORTHERN VA...THIS AREA WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH. ELSEWHERE, THERE WERE JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION, WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH AND WEST SO HAVE LEFT LIKELY POPS IN THOSE AREAS. 425 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM-MESOSCALE DISCUSSION(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... A RATHER COMPLEX SCENARIO SHAPING UP TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY, REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. WITH THE TRACK OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, OUR ENTIRE CWA IS PLACED ON ITS EAST SIDE, OR WARM SECTOR. INITIALLY THE WIND FIELDS, BASED OFF OF THE 12Z LWX, WAL, AND OKX SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY WEAK. HOWEVER, SOUNDINGS FURTHER TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SHOW AN INCREASING WIND FIELD AS THESE LOCATIONS ARE CLOSER TO THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA. THE KDIX VWP AS OF 19Z SHOWS RATHER WEAK WINDS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE EVIDENT OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY. THEREFORE, THE WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR CWA. AN EXAMINATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET (925-850 MB), BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE VERY CLOSE WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURE. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 40-45 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT, THE MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER WARM, THUS WEAKER LAPSE RATES. THERE SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE EVENING. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY CONVECTION WHICH FORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FORMING IN AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORM IN LINES/BANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF KATRINA AND THE LARGE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE CENTER WILL ALLOW OUR CWA TO BE IN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WEDNESDAY. SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 120-250 M2/S2 (EAST TO WEST). THE HELICITY VALUES APPEAR TO PEAK HOWEVER DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING. OF COURSE THE FORECAST CAPE IS BASED ON AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE, WHICH SHOULD OCCUR, BUT THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY WILL BE KEY. MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUPERCELLS, ESPECIALLY WHERE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION. WHILE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME MIDLEVEL STORM ROTATION, THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER, SOME WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR DUE TOO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND THE FASTER MOTION OF THE STORMS, ESPECIALLY IF HIGHER CAPE VALUES MATERIALIZE. STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITHIN ANY SUPERCELLULAR STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME (SMALL) HAIL. IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, NEAR THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AND GREATER SHEAR AXIS. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT TEND TO FORM, MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LINE/BAND, THEREFORE A BRIEF TORNADO SPIN UP CAN OCCUR QUICKLY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... CDFNT MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN ON NW WINDS. A SECOND DRY FRONT SWINGS THROUGH BY SUNDAY. WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE REFRESHING. && .AVIATION... CONDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING AT THE TAF SITES SUCH THAT NOW MOST ARE VFR OR MVFR FOR CIGS. EXPECT CONDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS. SHWRS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DVLP BUT SHOULD INCRS IN COVERAGE THIS AFTN AS THE ATMOS CONTS TO DE-STABILIZE. WE EXPECT SHWRS WILL CONT WELL INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT AS RMNTS OF KATRINA MOVE CLOSER. SFC WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCRG FROM THE SOUTH. CIGS WILL LIKELY GO DOWN TO IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT BUT VSBYS SHOULD BE LESS RESTRICTIVE...GENLY MVFR. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL PASS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...WIND GUSTS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY THURSDAY AS KATRINA MOVES AWAY. NO OTHER PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... FFG HAS NUDGED UPWD AGN AS ALL COUNTIES ARE AOA 3"/HR. HVYST PCPN PTNL FROM KATRINA SHLD OCR TUE/TUE NGT AS HER MOISTURE GETS INGESTED INTO THE BROAD SRLY FLOW. WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2"...AT LEAST LOCALIZED AMTS TO 4" RMN WITHIN THE REALM OF PTNL. GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN OF LATE IF ANY FLDG DOES IT OCR...IT WOULD BE MORE OF A SMALLER STREAM CONCERN AND NOT A MAIN STEM ONE. THE EMPHASIS FOR HVYR PCN WITH THE LATEST MDL RUNS RMNS CLSR TO THE JET OVR CANADA AND NEW ENG AND THUS OVR OUR NRN ZONES. WE WILL CONT TO ISSUE THE SPS ABT THE HVY RAIN PTNL. && .MISCELLANEOUS... WAY BACK WHEN ANALUGS ARE US COMPARED THE APR/MAY TEMP COUPLET AND SAW HOW THE ENSUING SUMMERS WERE. WELL THIS BUSTED BIGTIME AS THIS SUMMER WILL END (IN PHL) IN THE TOP 10 AND MUCH WARMER THAN ANY OF THE PREV ANALOG YEARS. WE/LL PBLY GET MORE MID SHIFTS BECAUSE OF THIS AND WE WON/T QUIT OUR DAY JOB.. YEAR JUN JUL AUG AVG TEMP TOTAL PCPN 1878 67.4 77.6 73.9 73.0 11.84 1891 71.8 71.9 74.3 72.7 11.38 1915 69.6 76.0 73.1 72.9 15.31 1925 78.0 76.2 74.8 76.3 8.16 1938 71.3 77.2 78.4 75.6 20.68 1945 71.5 76.0 74.1 73.9 16.38 1952 74.7 80.1 75.2 76.7 11.95 1954 72.9 77.9 73.5 74.8 8.69 1958 67.8 77.4 73.4 72.9 17.31 1960 70.6 73.3 74.5 72.8 9.42 1968 71.2 77.1 77.8 75.4 9.13 AVG 71.5 76.4 74.8 74.2 12.75 SUM 2005 SO FAR 74.8 78.9 79.6 77.8 10.16 1971-2000 NML 72.3 77.6 76.3 75.4 12.03 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ZONES ANZ450>455. $$ UPDATE...NIERENBERG OVERVIEW/SHORT TERM/MESOSCALE DISC...GORSE AVIATION/MARINE...COPE HYDROLOGY/LONG TERM/MISCELLANEOUS...GIGI 510 FXUS65 KFGZ 310452 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 945 PM MST TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE NORTHLAND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE...AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...EXPECTED. && .DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS NORTHERN AZ THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER DRY WITH MOST OBSERVATION SITES SHOWING VALUES IN THE 30S. AFTERNOON KFGZ UPPER AIR SOUNDING DEPICTED BOTH THE STABILITY AND LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE CURRENT AIR MASS...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING BELOW A HALF INCH AND WARM DRY AIR ABOVE 500MB. ALL OF THIS DUE TO A CONTINUING DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO REMAIN NEAR NONE FOR WEDNESDAY AND ONLY APPROACH SLIM FOR THURSDAY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK HOWEVER...FLOW ALOFT SHOULD TAKE ON A SLIGHTLY-MOISTENING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS GENERAL SETUP LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE ILLUSTRATES THIS WELL WITH THE INTRODUCTION AND CONTINUATION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...CONTINUED VFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24HRS AT NORTHERN ARIZONA AIRPORTS/LANDING STRIPS. ONLY A FEW HIGH BASED CUMULUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT THE HIGHER TERRAIN SITES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ KD 838 FXUS63 KDTX 310501 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 102 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005 .AVIATION... THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA ARE NOW MOVING ACROSS OHIO. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS REMAINED SOUTHEAST OF DETROIT THIS EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM IS GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH... MID LEVEL LIFT IS WANING ACROSS SE MICHIGAN. AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTHEAST... WINDS AT DETROIT WILL BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z. THIS WILL HELP ADVECT SOME DRYER LOW LEVEL AIR THAT EXTENDS FROM PTK NORTH. SO THE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND SCATTERED IFR CEILINGS AROUND DETROIT SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER 09Z. FARTHER NORTH... THE DRYER LOW LEVEL AIR HAS RESULTED IN VFR CONDITIONS. THESE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. && .UPDATE... THE REMNANT SURFACE LOW FROM KATRINA IS JUST SE OF CINCINNATI OHIO PER 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW THIS SYSTEM TO BE WEAKENING SOME AS THE UPPER WAVE IS GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LOW ROTATING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH KDTX RADAR SHOWS PRECIP HAVING WANED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...RETURNS ARE NOW BEGGING TO PICK UP IN THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE UP TO LAKE ST CLAIR. THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION THAT ALLOWED LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ALL THE WAY UP TO FLINT IS DIMINISHING AS SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS IS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW PRECIP TO WANE ALONG THE I-69 CORRIDOR. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A PORT HURON TO ANN ARBOR LINE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS HANDLES REASONABLY WELL. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE JUST TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP CHANCES AND TO INCREASE THE WINDS A LITTLE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS ON THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS ALSO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKES ST CLAIR AND ERIE. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NORTHERN FRINGE OF KATRINA TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT ZONES...WHICH DEPICT SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION. RAIN SHIELD HAS SPREAD INTO MONROE/LENAWEE COUNTIES AS OF 3 PM. WOULD EXPECT THE NORTHERN EDGE TO REACH M-59 THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...TO MAYBE AS FAR NORTH AS I-69...PER MID LEVEL OMEGA FIELDS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STABLE...AND DO NOT EXPECT THUNDER WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. IN FACT...HAVE SEEN NO LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO TODAY. WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND LACK OF INSTABILITY...NO CONCERNS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL HERE IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH MODEST 850-700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. NONE-THE-LESS...MONROE COUNTY SHOULD DO OK WITH A QUARTER TO MAYBE HALF AN INCH OF RAIN. LARGE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA TO ABSORB KATRINA BY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. SLOW CLEARING TREND TOMORROW DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATED MAXES AROUND 80 DEGREES WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. && .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH KATRINA RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...EXTENDED FORECAST QUIETS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGH PRESSURE...FROM THE SURFACE UP...BUILDS IN FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST...PARTICULARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY WEATHER TO SPEAK OF WILL BE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT RACES THROUGH THE LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE BEST LIFT/FORCING WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...AND WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 100 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON...6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY. LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. && $$ SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM....DG AVIATION/UPDATE ....CONSIDINE 066 FXUS61 KCLE 310507 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 110 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005 .AVIATION (00Z-00Z)... HEAVIEST RAFL TRYING TO MOVE NE OUT OF THE AREA ATTM ALTHOUGH SOME BANDS OF MOD TO LCLY HVR RAFL STILL RMN. CENTER OF CIRCULATION NOW JUST SW OF KCMH MOVG NE AND SHOULD BE NEAR KYNG ARND 10Z. MSTLY MVFR CONDS ACRS RGN ATTM WITH IMBEDDED IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. XPC THIS TO CONT THRU 12Z IN THE WEST WITH CONDS IMPVG TO VFR FM W TO E THRU 20Z. && .SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...LOW ON SCHEDULE BETWEEN CVG AND CMH. HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE NW OF THE LOW. KEPT THUNDER IN THE AREAS EAST OF THE LOW AS THAT SHOULD BE THE MOST UNSTABLE AREA. OTRW NO CHANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. FLOOD WATCH CONTINEUS. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY)... GFS MODEL APPEARS TO STILL HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA AS THE MODEL DEPICTED THE PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA MUCH SOONER AND THE BEST ORIENTATION COMPARED TO THE ETA AND NGM SOLUTIONS. WILL STICK WITH THE GFS SOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. REMNANTS OF KATRINA MAKING ITS WAY NORTH AND THEN EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT FROM GFS AND RUC INDICATE A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR FROM FINDLAY ACROSS THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES UP TO ERIE PENNSYLVANIA AFTER 00Z. THIS BAND WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 09Z TONIGHT. CENTER OF KATRINA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND BE OVER ERIE BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING AT WHICH TIME THE PRECIPITATION WILL START TO TAPER OFF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. DUE TO THE AXIS OF THE HEAVY RAIN EXTENDING FURTHER WEST...WE WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FLOOD WATCH. WE NEED ABOUT 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN 6 HOURS TO CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THE NEW WATCH AREA BUT WE FEEL THAT MAIN THREATS OF FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN THE URBAN AREAS OF FINDLAY AND TOLEDO. A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT EXISTS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SECONDARY WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION LOCATED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING FORCING DEW POINTS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 70. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FEED THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS MUCH LOWER AND THREAT OF FLOODING HAS A GREATER POTENTIAL IN BOTH RURAL AND URBAN AREAS. THE THREAT OF WIND WILL BE DIMINISHED AS THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA AFFECT THE AREA. WILL MENTION WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 30 MPH OVERNIGHT. 925 MB WINDS INDICATE 30 KNOTS WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM AND THESE STRONGER WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EXTEND DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH CONVECTION. REMNANTS QUICKLY PULL OUT ON WEDNESDAY TAKING THREAT OF RAIN WITH IT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND FORCE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE 70S DURING THE DAY AND 50S AT NIGHT. && .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND FORCE SOME COOLER AIR SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING AND ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA AS WELL WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTING UP FOR A PLEASANT HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. I MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO THE TEMPERATURES TO MAKE THEM SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS TRENDING TOWARD SOME SLOW AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND COLD POOL WILL BRUSH BY THE AREA. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...FLOOD WATCH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTRN THRU WED AFTRN. .PA...FLOOD WATCH ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES THIS AFTRN THRU WED AFTRN. $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...KIELTYKA SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...TK 191 FXUS66 KEKA 310512 AAA AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 1015 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY OFFSHORE FLOW TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESUME THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL AS SOME COOLING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS COOLING WILL SPREAD FARTHER INTO THE INTERIOR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY PERIODIC EPISODES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT THE COAST...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND MOVES INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON. && .SHORT TERM... BEAUTIFUL CRYSTAL CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON... WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE EXPOSED RIDGES...MOUNTAIN PASSES...AND COASTAL WATERS. DRY OFFSHORE FLOW DOWN TO THE 925MB LEVEL HAS MAXIMIZED TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS JUST A RANGE OR TWO EAST OF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER 90S COMING IN FROM LOCATIONS SUCH AS GASQUET AND LAYTONVILLE...AND PLENTY OF 80S OVER THE RIDGES. DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT...THOUGH FREE AIR TEMPS AT RIDGETOP LEVEL APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL WARM SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL MEAN A FEW 30S AND PLENTY OF 40S BY MORNING...BUT DON'T EXPECT WE'LL MAKE IT TO FROSTY LEVELS ZONE-WIDE. CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A LIGHT FROST AT SOME OF THE COOLEST LOCATIONS IN THE AREA...HOWEVER. FOR TOMORROW EXPECT A WARM-UP OF 3 TO 5F INLAND AS OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY AIR CONTINUE AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP A BIT. ALONG THE COAST IT'S A LITTLE MORE OF A TOUGH CALL ON TEMPS...AS SLIGHTLY WEAKER WIND FLOW...WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...AND FALLING SFC PRESSURES ALL WOULD INDICATE A RISE IN TEMPS...BUT MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES SLIGHT COOLING. HAVE OPTED FOR A 2F WARM-UP WHICH WOULD PUT THE EUREKA WFO AT 68F...SHY OF THE 72F RECORD. ONE MORE NIGHT OF OFFSHORE FLOW WED NIGHT...BUT WITH GRADIENT WEAKENING EXPECT FOG TO RETURN. THURSDAY INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOG WILL LIKELY HANG ALONG COASTAL AREAS...POSSIBLY INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS THE INTERIOR COOLS JUST A TAD...LIKELY DUE TO A LITTLE MORE RH SEEPING IN. && .LONG TERM... HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE PAC NW STARTS TO WEAKEN THURS INTO FRIDAY AS A SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA BEGINS DROPPING SE TOWARD WASHINGTON AND OREGON. HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWN WITH GRADIENT TEMP DROPS AND CORRESPONDING MOS GUIDANCE AS PRESSURE FEATURES WEAKEN AND DRIFT SE. THIS WILL MEAN MORE ISSUES WITH FOG AND STRATUS ALONG THE COAST THU AND FRI...BUT ALSO A DECREASE IN THE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT COOLDOWN WILL CONTINUE INLAND...BUT SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF SUN EVEN AT THE COAST SINCE THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME DISTURBED BY THE INCOMING SYSTEM AND COOLER AIR ALOFT. RIGHT NOW DON'T EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN A LITTLE DRIZZLE AS FOG OVER THE OCEAN BLOWS INTO THE COAST SAT/SUN...BUT IF SYSTEM DROPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH NWERN AREAS COULD SEE A LITTLE RAIN. LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEAK ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS INTO THE PAC NW...BUT RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE WEAKER THAN THE ONE WE HAVE NOW...SO SUSPECT NICE WEATHER ALONG THE COAST WILL ONLY LAST A DAY OR TWO. && .AVIATION...AS WITH THE PREVIOUS MORNINGS...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TEMPORARILY DECOUPLE FROM THE OFFSHORE FLOW...PERMITTING FOG TO FORM ALONG THE COAST. THIS MORNING EXPECT MOST OF THE FOG TO FORM IN THE HUMBOLDT BAY REGION. HIS WILL BE WHERE THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO SUNNY SKIES BY MID MORNING. THE AFTERNOON WINDS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY...SO LIGHT TURBULENCE CAN BE EXPECTED DURING CLIMB AND DESCENT AT THE COASTAL AIRFIELDS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE MORE EXTENSIVE ALONG THE COAST. INLAND...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GALE WARNING PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA 20-60NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA COAST-20 NM. && $$ LUTZ VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA 601 FXUS61 KRNK 310513 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 113 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... GOING TO SEND QUICK ZONE UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AND MORE CLOUDS IN THE WEST...AND REMOVE EVENING WORDING. NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS OR WINDS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 906 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPDATING FCST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE TORNADO WATCH. FURTHER TWEAKED POPS TO LOWER THEM IN THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALSO LOWERED POPS A LITTLE MORE OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCES BY MORNING ON THE WESTERN SLOPES. NO POPS IN TEH SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 745 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) AVIATION... PLENTY OF SHOWERS ARND AT THE MOMENT AND SHUD SEE A GENERAL DECLINE IN THE ACTIVITY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND WE LOSE INSTABILITY. SWLY BREEZE LIKELY TO STAY UP MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS SWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP MVFR CIGS ARND THRU THE NIGHT AT MOST PLACES AND INTO THE MORNING...BUT THIS WILL KEEP FOG TO A MINIMUM. LOOK FOR SKIES TO BREAK OUT TO VFR WITH MIXING BY LATE MORNING WED. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE DAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 628 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPDATING FCST TO ADJUST POPS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY GETTING PRETTY SCTD IN THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHEAST. TOR WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 9PM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 230 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... DAYTIME HEATING IS GENERATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LINES OF TSRA IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. BUT HELICITY AND SHEAR ARE BETTER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. STILL ENOUGH OVERLAP TO KEEP THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER GOING UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA GET PULLED INTO THE MID LATITUDE TROF...THE FEEDER BANDS INTO THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA(CWA). AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...A TRAILING PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE CWA BY THEN. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE MODELS TO KEEP POPS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN STALLED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS COMES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. EVEN THE LOW LEVELS(BELOW 850MB) DRY OUT BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY. EVEN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DROP BELOW ONE INCH. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM HEATING ON THUR. LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... USING GFS AS RECOMMENDED BY NCEP AS A BASE FOR THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES IN THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE EVENTUALLY CLOSES OF AS A LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY TUESDAY. ON SATURDAY CWA IS IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 250MB JET COMING OUT OF THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROF. FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE SURFACE WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE GFS. THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. EXTENDED MODELS AREA ALSO SHOWING A COASTAL TROF FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO FLORIDA BY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS AND LIFT WITH THE FRONT SO NO POPS AS THIS TIME. AFTER SATURDAY CWA IS IN A LESS HUMID AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS. AVIATION... MAINLY HIGH END MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA WHICH WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHORTLY. THINK ONCE CONVECTION FADES THIS EVENING...WILL SEE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG FILL BACK IN GIVEN RESIDUAL LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN WAKE OF KATRINA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W WED AND SLOWLY ACT TO IMPROVE CIGS TOWARD VFR BY MIDDAY AFTER A MVFR/IFR START AT MOST SITES. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 05 697 FXUS63 KABR 310531 AAA AFDABR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1230 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 .UPDATE...RATHER STRONG 3-HOURLY ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT TO POST FRONTAL PRESSURE FIELD NOTED THIS EARLY MORNING NOSING INTO FAR WESTERN CWA. AS SUCH...POST COLD FROPA NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BLOWN THROUGH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NEXT 4 HOURS AND WILL RE-ASSES NEED TO PROLONG/EXTEND ADVISORY INTO MORNING PACKAGE ISSUANCE. INCREASED WIND AND GUST GRIDS. ALSO HAVE A LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING/MOVING INTO JAMES RIVER VALLEY AT THIS TIME. UPDATED WORDS GRIDS OUT. DORN .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BIGGEST CHALLENGE STILL REMAINS PCPN CHCS FOR TONIGHT...AND TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROF FROM 24 HOURS AGO...AND ARE BEGINNING TO FOCUS BETTER FORCING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. CURRENTLY KBLX 88D SHOWING BAND OF SHRA/ISO TSRA GLIDING EAST ACROSS SRN MT. AS 5H AND 7H TROFS PUSH INTO WRN SODAK LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT THIS PCPN SHIELD TO ALSO ADVECT INTO SODAK. MODELS SHOW SFC TROF SLOWING SLIGHTLY AWAITING UPPER TROFS. DECENT 7H AND 85H THETA-E FORCING NOTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS CWA...WITH GOOD REFLECTION IN OMEGA FIELD. 30/12Z MM5 DBZ FCST SHOWS LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST ACROSS CWA MAINLY 06Z-15Z WEDNESDAY AND THIS LINES UP WELL WITH SLOWER SOLN SHOWN BY MODELS. PWATS STILL INCREASE TO 1.5"+ ALONG I-29 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AND DWPTS HAVE RISEN INTO LOW-MID 60S ACROSS ERN SODAK. 85H 30KT JET SHOULD ALSO AID IN TSRA PRODUCTION. HAVE RE-TWEAKED TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR ALL THE ABOVE. REMAINDER OF NEAR TERM SHOULD BE QUIET AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RECOVER HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. BREEZY CONDS WILL PERSIST FOR WED AND PART OF THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. STILL APPEARS TO BE COOL ON WED WITH CAA OVERRUNNING THE CWA...AND STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME CAA SC MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN PART OF CWA. MODERATING TEMP TRENDS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR REST OF NEAR TERM. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EXTENDED RANGE SHAPING UP SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH LITTLE CHANGES NOTED IN THE NEW MODEL RUNS. THEREFORE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS. FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OFF DRY SATURDAY WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE STILL ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THEREFORE FIRST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED COMES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE LOW PUSHING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING FROM THE 20S CELSIUS TO AROUND +10C. TEMPERATURE GRIDS LOOK GOOD WITH WARMING EXPECTED BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AND THEN THE COOLDOWN IN STORE FOR TUESDAY. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ HINTZ/ALBRECHT 999 FXUS61 KRNK 310534 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 134 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005 .AVIATION... MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF KATRINA REMNANTS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY...BUT IN THE FORM OF MVFR/VFR SC/CU. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THE MVFR CIGS WILL BE MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 113 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... GOING TO SEND QUICK ZONE UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS PRECIP COVERAGE AND MORE CLOUDS IN THE WEST...AND REMOVE EVENING WORDING. NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS OR WINDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 906 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPDATING FCST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE TORNADO WATCH. FURTHER TWEAKED POPS TO LOWER THEM IN THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALSO LOWERED POPS A LITTLE MORE OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCES BY MORNING ON THE WESTERN SLOPES. NO POPS IN TEH SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 745 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) AVIATION... PLENTY OF SHOWERS ARND AT THE MOMENT AND SHUD SEE A GENERAL DECLINE IN THE ACTIVITY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND WE LOSE INSTABILITY. SWLY BREEZE LIKELY TO STAY UP MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS SWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP MVFR CIGS ARND THRU THE NIGHT AT MOST PLACES AND INTO THE MORNING...BUT THIS WILL KEEP FOG TO A MINIMUM. LOOK FOR SKIES TO BREAK OUT TO VFR WITH MIXING BY LATE MORNING WED. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU THE DAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 628 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... UPDATING FCST TO ADJUST POPS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY GETTING PRETTY SCTD IN THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHEAST. TOR WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 9PM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 230 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... DAYTIME HEATING IS GENERATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LINES OF TSRA IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. BUT HELICITY AND SHEAR ARE BETTER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. STILL ENOUGH OVERLAP TO KEEP THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER GOING UNTIL ABOUT 00Z. AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA GET PULLED INTO THE MID LATITUDE TROF...THE FEEDER BANDS INTO THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA(CWA). AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...A TRAILING PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF THE CWA BY THEN. THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE MODELS TO KEEP POPS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN STALLED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS COMES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. EVEN THE LOW LEVELS(BELOW 850MB) DRY OUT BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY. EVEN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DROP BELOW ONE INCH. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM HEATING ON THUR. LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... USING GFS AS RECOMMENDED BY NCEP AS A BASE FOR THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES IN THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE EVENTUALLY CLOSES OF AS A LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY TUESDAY. ON SATURDAY CWA IS IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 250MB JET COMING OUT OF THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROF. FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE SURFACE WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE GFS. THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. EXTENDED MODELS AREA ALSO SHOWING A COASTAL TROF FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO FLORIDA BY TUESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS AND LIFT WITH THE FRONT SO NO POPS AS THIS TIME. AFTER SATURDAY CWA IS IN A LESS HUMID AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS. AVIATION... MAINLY HIGH END MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA WHICH WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHORTLY. THINK ONCE CONVECTION FADES THIS EVENING...WILL SEE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG FILL BACK IN GIVEN RESIDUAL LEFTOVER MOISTURE IN WAKE OF KATRINA. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W WED AND SLOWLY ACT TO IMPROVE CIGS TOWARD VFR BY MIDDAY AFTER A MVFR/IFR START AT MOST SITES. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 05 274 FXUS66 KMTR 310541 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA 1041 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .DISCUSSION...IT WAS A WARM DAY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES QUITE ISOTHERMAL ACROSS THE DISTRICT...ANYWHERE FROM THE 70S ALONG THE COAST TO 90S INLAND. THERE WAS ONE RECORD TEMPERATURE SET TODAY... AT SFO WHERE IT REACHED 87 WHICH BROKE THE RECORD OF 85 SET IN 1968. TONIGHT WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH NO MARINE LAYER TO SPEAK OF AND SATL IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CALIFORNIA...WITH A LITTLE STRATUS ALONG THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. THE ETA12 KEEPS SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES. A WEAK TROF EDGES TO THE COAST LATE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP AN INVERSION LATE IN THE DAY AS INLAND H85 TEMPS INCR FROM 21C TO 24C. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS INLAND AND A SEABREEZE TO THE COAST W/COOLER TEMPS. STRATUS DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH COASTAL LOW CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES. && .AVIATION...THE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE SLOWLY WEAKENING ALONG THE COAST...BUT THE CLOSEST COASTAL STRATUS REMAINS SOUTH OF LAX AIRPORT. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CREEP UP THE SOCAL COAST LATER WEDNESDAY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL SF/MRY BAY AREA TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 20-60 NM OUT. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: STROBIN MARINE/AVIATION: WEAGLE NOAA'S NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO 121 FXUS66 KOTX 310545 AFDOTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA 1045 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2005 .SYNOPSIS...THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL GO THROUGH ANOTHER CYCLE OF WARMING AND DRYING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... REST OF TONIGHT...COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF IS NOW WELL EAST OF THE CWA WITH ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE REGION. 500 MB TEMPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO RESULTING IN MUCH GREATER ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY. SHOWER THREAT OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES HAS VANISHED DUE TO LACK OF INSOLATION. VARIED CLOUD COVER STILL REMAINS FROM THE EARLIER CUMULUS FIELDS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES...BUT EXPECT THIS TO RAPIDLY DISSIAPATE OVERNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIDGE SETS IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS READINGS SO PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. FX && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST TAF AND TWEB FORECAST FOR DETAILS. FX && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SPOKANE 45 76 45 81 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 COEUR D'ALENE 45 77 47 81 50 81 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 PULLMAN 48 77 52 80 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 LEWISTON 53 85 54 86 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 COLVILLE 39 78 44 84 46 82 / 0 0 0 10 10 10 SANDPOINT 38 75 39 78 45 81 / 0 0 0 10 10 10 KELLOGG 43 71 45 82 47 84 / 0 0 0 10 0 10 MOSES LAKE 53 82 55 86 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 WENATCHEE 56 81 58 84 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 OMAK 45 82 52 85 51 84 / 0 0 0 10 10 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. WA...NONE. && $$ 841 FXUS61 KILN 310549 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 149 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005 .AVIATION (06Z-06Z)... CIRCULATION CENTER OF REMNANTS OF KATRINA NOW LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY THERE IS A LULL IN PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS LOCATED ACROSS INDIANA WILL WRAP BACK AROUND THE LOW AND AFFECT THE WESTERN SITES THROUGH 10Z AND THE EASTERN SITES THROUGH DAYBREAK. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REAMIN MVFR AND IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH EARLY MORNING. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1044 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)... CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE JUST EAST OF CINCINNATI MOVING EAST NORTHEAST. RADAR SHOWS PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS INDIANA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT AND THUS THE THREAT OF FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. THUS DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH EARLY. OTHER THAN FINE TUNING THE PRECIPITATION AND WINDS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED FINE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 757 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) AVIATION (00Z-24Z)... SURFACE LOW IS APPROACHING THE CINCINNATI AREA AND WITH IT COMES A BREAK IN THE STEADY PRECIPITATION. EXPECT THE LOW TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST AND AS IT DOES WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE TAF SITES. APPEARS THAT CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR WITH PRIMARILY MVFR VISIBILITIES OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END OVERNIGHT WITH THE VISIBILITY BECOMING VFR DURING THE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE ALTHOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 305 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)... THE CENTER OF KATRINA WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN KY THIS AFTERNOON AND A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OR SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY AT TIMES COVERED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY. THIS INDICATES THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA WILL MOVE NE TO THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE NE ALONG A TRACK CLOSE TO THE I-71 CORRIDOR. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS SHOULD BE ENTERING WESTERN NY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z AND THEN TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCHES IN THE SOUTH TILL ABOUT 10Z WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF FORECAST AREA UNTIL ABOUT 16Z WEDNESDAY. SE PART OF CWA HAS BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. BY 00Z THURSDAY...KATRINA WILL BE WELL TO OUR NE AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY BUT DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH DYNAMICS OR MOISTURE TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION. SO...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO MAV. LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... FOR FRIDAY...A WEAK BNDRY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...GFS TIME HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE...SO WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY AS WELL AT THIS POINT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER...AND THEN MOVES EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. LOOKING AT MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE...HIGH AND LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ 260 FXUS61 KRLX 310550 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 150 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005 .AVIATION... THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA ARE LIFTING THROUGH OHIO AT THIS TIME AND THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT LOWER CLOUD DECK TO MOVE IN DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z PERIOD DROPPING CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THINK BEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. GENERALLY EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS WITH A GRADUAL WESTERLY TURN TO THE WINDS DURING THE DAY. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 937 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS FOR TONIGHT TIMING THE ONE BAND THAT IS MOVING ACROSS WV AND ALSO LOOKING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CENTER OF KATRINA...WHICH IS NOW CENTER NEAR CINCINNATI. MODEL SHOW AN AREA OF LIFT MOVING FROM NRN KY...NEAR LEXINGTON...THROUGH EASTERN OHIO BY 12Z. AFTER THIS HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR THE POPS FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER SOME AS WELL. TEMPERATURES LOOKED TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON CURRENT TEMP/DEW POINT READINGS. HYDROLOGY... WITH MOST OF THE STEADY RAINFALL FROM KATRINA HAVING FALLEN ACROSS OHIO TODAY...THE RAIN AMOUNTS FROM THE SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE NOT BE THAT HEAVY WITH MOST LOCATIONS GETTING LESS THAN A HALF INCH...EXCEPT IN SE OHIO WHERE AMOUNTS WHERE MUCH CLOSER TO AN INCH TO 2 INCHES. THUS WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...HAVE DROPPED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WV AND FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN OHIO. HAVE LEFT NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN WV SINCE THERE IS STILL ONE BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS AND IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS. HAVE ALSO LEFT 5 COUNTIES IN SE OHIO SINCE THEY RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN TODAY WITH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. SINCE TROPICAL SYSTEMS DO TEND TO PICK UP THERE INTENSITY SOME OVER NIGHT AND THEY DO HAVE LIFT TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CENTER HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP THE WATCH IN PLACE THERE AS WELL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 813 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) AVIATION... TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA IS NOW CENTERED OVER SRN IN AND IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD THROUGH OHIO TONIGHT. THE SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW INTO THE STORM HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE REGION IN VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS. AS THE CENTER CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PERSISTENT RAIN MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN BANDS. IN THESE BANDS COULD SEE MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER ABOUT 7Z...THE CHANCES FOR PCPN GO DOWN FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS PKB WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE CENTER OF KATRINA AT THAT TIME. ON THE BACK SIDE OF KATRINA...THE CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO MVFR RANGE AROUND 2000 FT...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OVER NRN KY NOW. THESE CEILING SHOULD HANG THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT AND CLEAR FROM SW TO NE AS KATRINA PULLS NORTHWARD INTO NW PA AND SWRN NY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1208 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005) LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE WEAK FLOW THE PRESS FOR WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP SO WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM EXTREME HOT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED. NO GOOD TAPPING OF GULF MOISTURE EITHER. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLOOD WATCH FOR WVZ010-011-019-020-027>032-039-040-047 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. OH...FLOOD WATCH FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-084 UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...HC 079 FXUS62 KTAE 310607 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 205 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005 .SYNOPSIS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL USA WITH A 50 KT JET LIFTING NE DOWNSTREAM FROM IT. THIS SUGGESTS THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TUESDAY WAS CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT OVER THE CWFA...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OUR FAR NW ZONES OVER PARTS OF SE AL. THE 31/00Z TLH SOUNDING CAME IN RELATIVELY DRY AT 1.82" PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT). && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TODAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY FAIRLY STRONG SWLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. FROM A SEABREEZE CLIMATOLOGY REGIME...THIS IS A WET PATTERN. MAV IS GOING WITH HIGH POPS TODAY OVER OUR SERN ZONES...WHERE PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO THE 2.2" RANGE AS WE GET A RETURN SURGE OF VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIR. BASED ON THE PCPN COVERAGE WE SAW TUESDAY...AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH THAT SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE DPVA TO THE CWFA...SEE NO REASON TO DISCOUNT HIGH POPS. FOCUS FOR HIGH POPS WILL SHIFT FARTHER SE OUT OF THE CWFA AS A MORE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS SPREADS PWATS DOWN INTO THE 1" RANGE OVER OUR NW ZONES BY THURSDAY EVENING. && .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENT GRIDS AND FORECASTS LOOK ON TRACK...SO FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. && .MARINE... SEAS HAVE COME DOWN EVEN FASTER THAN WNAWAVE GUIDANCE WAS HINTING. WILL THEREFORE UNDERCUT THIS GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY. WILL KEEP EXERCISE CAUTION GOING THIS MORNING...BUT EVEN THIS HEADLINE WILL LIKELY BE UNNECESSARY BY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE RATE SEAS ARE FLATTENING. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO CONCERNS. && .AVIATION... AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY INVOF DHN, ABY AND VLD DURING THE OVERNIGHT THRU EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE OF SHRA/TS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR WILL BE FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 89 75 92 70 / 80 30 60 20 PANAMA CITY 89 77 92 76 / 70 30 40 20 DOTHAN 90 73 92 70 / 60 20 30 10 ALBANY 92 73 93 71 / 60 20 40 10 VALDOSTA 90 74 91 70 / 80 30 60 20 CROSS CITY 89 74 90 73 / 80 30 70 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION ALL MARINE ZONES. && $$ PUBLIC/MARINE...TJT AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MAJ 187 FXUS63 KIWX 310608 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 108 AM EST WED AUG 31 2005 .AVIATION... LAGGING MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE STILL PRODUCING ADDNL RAINFALL ACRS SE CWA ALTHOUGH BEGINNING TO BREAKUP AS KATRINA REMNANTS HEAD INTO CANADA. CONTD VEERING LL FLW ADVTG DRIER AIR SWD W/RAPID IMPROVEMENT XPCD AT FWA BFR 12Z AND VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES REST OF TDA. && .UPDATE... SFC LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA...WAS LOCATED OVER SW OHIO AT 01Z. THIS LOW WILL PIVOT NE INTO N CNTRL OHIO BY 06Z...THEN INTO FAR NE OHIO BY 09Z. KIWX RADAR SHOWS THAT PCPN WAS BECOMING LIGHTER ACRS THE REGION...AND BECOMING CONFINED TO THE SERN CWFA. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO REDUCE CHC/S OF RAIN IN THE WEST...AND ALSO TO SHOW A MORE GRADUAL DECREASE TO LIGHT PCPN OVERNIGHT. ALSO...BUOY 45007 ON LAKE MICHIGAN IS REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 27KTS. WAVES ARE REPORTED NEAR 6 FEET. WILL HAVE TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE ZONES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOUR AND INTO WEDNESDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... WATER VAPOR SHOWING REMNANTS OF KATRINA SHEARING QUICKLY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST. DEFORMATION TYPE PCPN ON NORTHWEST SIDE OF CIRCULATION AFFECTING SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PCPN HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE NORTHWEST AS IT ENCOUNTERS MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE. CIRCULATION CENTER LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG TRACK OF BEST HEIGHT FALLS HAS FINALLY ALLOWED EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD TO BEGIN INCHING NORTHWEST AGAIN. EXPECT SOME WESTWARD EXPANSION AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST THIS EVENING BEFORE BACK EDGE BEGINS TO PIVOT EAST. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL CONTINUES IN FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE RADAR RETURNS HAVE SHOWN INCREASE REFLECTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN BUT SPREAD OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 15 HOURS. THEREFORE EXPECT RUNOFF TO BE HANDLED FAIRLY WELL WITH ONLY SOME LOCALIZED PROBLEMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH NOWCASTS AND ESF HIGHLIGHTING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BUT NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. AS ALWAYS...WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING FOR ANY CHANGES. HAVE LEFT A SHARP CUTOFF TO WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN IN GRIDS. THIS LEAVES EXTREME NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA DRY OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED TREND OF ENDING PCPN FROM WEST TO EAST BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO END AS QUICK AS HPC QPF FORECAST. HAVE HELD ONTO POPS ALL NIGHT NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHEAST INDIANA...THEN END PCPN ALL TOGETHER IN THE FAR NORTHEAST WED MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN FROM WEST IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM. SKY COVER SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...HOWEVER...SCT-BKN CU EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS WHERE LESS SUBSIDENCE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAIN ALONG WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. && .LONG TERM... LOW PRESSURE DEPICTED WELL ON WATER VAPOR ALONG H50 TROF OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BITTERROOT RANGE IN THE PAC NW. MODELS CONTINUE TO TRANSFER MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PEAK HEATING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG DIGGING OF H50 TROF OVER THE MIDWEST ON WED. MODELS SHOW MORE AMPLIFICATION AND AN INCREASE IN 85-70H RH DURING THU AM OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH PASSAGE OF H50 TROF. CANADIAN MODEL DAMPENS THE H50 TROF CONSIDERABLY BY 12Z THU BEFORE MOVING IT INTO THE CWA. DUE TO LACK OF ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND TIMING OF DAY AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO LEFT CWA DRY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND DOMINATES THE AREA AS RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD TROF SETTING UP OVER PAC NW. SLOW MODERATING TEMPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS SUN/MON AM...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR NW CWA. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE KBEH FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S. STRONG RIDGE OVER EASTERN HALF OF US STARTS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL CONUS. SYSTEM WILL TAKE TIME TO IMPEDE RIDGE AS HIGH PRES HOLDS FIRM OVER NEW ENGL. FEEL ATTM SYSTEM WILL NOT MOVE INTO SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TILL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-LMZ046. && $$ AVIATION...HOLSTEN UPDATE...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...LASHLEY LONG TERM...WAMSLEY 085 FXUS62 KMFL 310618 AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 218 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005 .DISCUSSION...AT 500 MB...HIGH PRES OVER FLA PENINSULA BETWEEN A TROUGH EXTENDING SE FROM CANADA SW TO THE S GREAT PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ATLC NEAR 30N N OF PUERTO RICO. TODAY THROUGH FRI...THE TROUGH WEAKENS...FILLS AND MOVES NE; THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE INTO THE GULF...GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES SW TO THE S BAHAMAS AREA AND ESSENTIALLY STALLS. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO N FLA AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE FLA STRAITS...GETS PUSHED SE AS A BROAD LOW PRES AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLC E OF THE BAHAMAS. FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRI...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...EMPHASIZING POPS IN THE INTERIOR AND E PORTIONS OF S FLA. LITTLE MOVEMENT ENSURING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MAX TEMPS 90 (IMMEDIATE W COAST) TO MID 90S INTERIOR AND LOWER 90S E WILL GUARANTEE HEAT INDICES IN TRIPLE DIGITS EACH DAY...BROACHING 105 IN SOME AREAS. .EXTENDED PERIOD...SAT THROUGH TUE...RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ALLOWING ANOTHER TROUGH TO DIVE SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLC STATES...ABSORBING THE UPPER LOW E OF THE BAHAMAS...DEVELOPING A BROAD E U.S. COAST/W ATLC TROUGH OVER AREA. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRES TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE BAHAMAS/FLA STRAITS AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP A LOW PRES SYSTEM ALONG TROUGH. SOMETHING TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOIST...UNSTABLE WITH WARM TEMPS KEEPING AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN TRIPLE DIGITS. && .MARINE...LIGHT SW FLOW TODAY THROUGH THU...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRI AND SAT...BECOMING NE SUN AND INCREASING AS LOW PRES TROUGH DEVELOPS SE OF AREA FROM S BAHAMAS INTO THE FLA STRAITS. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 93 77 92 76 / 60 30 50 30 FORT LAUDERDALE 91 81 91 79 / 50 30 50 30 MIAMI 93 80 92 79 / 50 30 50 30 NAPLES 91 79 91 78 / 50 30 50 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ 946 FXUS62 KJAX 310620 AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 220 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005 .SHORT TERM...A DEEP MOIST SW FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AGAIN TODAY. PWATS OVER TWO INCHES WILL FUEL SHOWERS THAT WILL DEVELOP ALONG GULF COAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA SHIFTING WINDS TO THE W AND NW...BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO SE GA. POPS WILL BE LOWERED TO SCATTERED OVER SE GA ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHER POPS OVER NE FL WHERE DEEP MOISTURE WILL LINGER. DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO NE FL ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. 00Z GFS PUSHES DRY AIR FURTHER SOUTH THAN NAM AND WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO GIVEN LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL US. .LONG TERM...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IS REINFORCED OVER THE NE U.S. LOCAL NOR'EASTER PATTERN SETTING UP WHICH SHOULD LOWER TEMPERATURES TO BELOW CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS. && .MARINE...SW TO W FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND WEAKEN ON THURSDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS SLOWLY DECREASING. NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND THEN INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND TO SCEC CONDITIONS. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 92 72 94 71 / 40 30 20 10 SSI 90 78 90 76 / 40 30 30 20 JAX 91 75 91 73 / 60 50 50 20 SGJ 89 77 90 77 / 60 50 50 20 GNV 89 75 91 73 / 70 50 50 20 OCF 89 75 90 73 / 70 50 60 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...ZIBURA MARINE/FIRE WX...CARROLL 944 FXUS62 KCAE 310633 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 233 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... REMNANTS OF KATRINA MOVING FROM OHIO VALLEY TOWARD NORTHEASTERN STATES TODAY. MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TROUGH EAST TO THE COASTAL REGION AND RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM PLAINS STATES. EXPECT SOME DOWNSLOPE THIS AFTERNOON ALSO. WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST...DRIER AIR AND INSTABILITY WEAK...WILL DROP POPS FOR TODAY. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD MIXING THROUGH 21Z. MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY MORNING. FLAT UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. AIRMASS DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST FROM PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN STATES RETROGRADES WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST DEVELOPING BY END OF WEEKEND...EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND...NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION... REMAINS OF KATRINIA CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING KATRINA SHOULD WEAKEN THIS MORNING...SO DONT EXPECT WINDS TO BE AS STRONG OR AS GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING...SO DONT EXPECT TO SEE ANY FOG FORMATION. CURRENT LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AT KOGB SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE. ALL SITES WILL HAVE VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER SUNRISE. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ 137 FXUS62 KMLB 310636 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 236 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005 .DISCUSSION... TODAY/TONIGHT...DISTANT REMNANT OF KATRINA COMBINED WITH RIDGING TO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE SW FLOW PATTERN OVER THE REGION AND PWATS WL REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES. GRADIENT FLOW AROUND 10 MPH SHOULD HOLD OFF ON INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NORTH OF THE TREASURE COAST. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON AND LATER AS SCT ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST COAST. LAKE OKEECHOBEE SHADOW WL HAVE EFFECT OF REDUCED POPS OVER MARTIN/ST LUCIE AS WAS THE CASE ON TUE. SW REGIME FAVORS THE EASTERN PORTION OF PENINSULA FOR LATER THAN NORMAL PCPN DEVELOPMENT. LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE FOCUS NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP A SCT MENTION FOR COASTAL SECTIONS AND OVER THE MARINE AREA UNTIL AROUND 03Z. THU-FRI...FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH SOUTHERN END SLOWING AND SAGGING INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH BUT MID LEVEL TEMPS STILL LOOK RATHER WARM. STILL...WITH WESTERLY COMPONENT TO STEERING FLOW... LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD FOR THU AND HAVE BUMPED FRI POPS TO 50 PERCENT AREAWIDE. SAT-SUN...GFS IS BACK TO PUSHING THE FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA AS TROUGH ALOFT AMPLIFIES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS MAY NOT OCCUR AS QUICKLY AS THE MODEL SHOWS BUT EVENTUALLY A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND PRODUCE A NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF. THE EXTENT OF DRYING MAY BE OVERDONE BY THE GFS BUT HAVE TAPERED POPS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LOW SCATTERED RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF. MON-TUE...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW SPINNING UP ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL TROUGH. TIMING OF SCATTERED POPS WILL NEED TO BE CHANGED NOW THAT IT LOOKS LIKE THE ONSHORE FLOW REGIME WILL MATERIALIZE. CHARACTER OF PRECIP ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS. && .MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME. BY SUNDAY THE WINDS/SEAS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA AS WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH AND NORTHEAST GRADIENT TIGHTENS. && .AVIATION...LOCAL GROUND FOG OVER INTERIOR AND LOW LYING SPOTS TIL AROUND 12Z. EXPECT VFR TIL 17Z WITH SCT TSRA/IFR BEGINNING AROUND 18Z AND LASTING THRU ABOUT 02Z WITH PREVAILING VFR AFT 04Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 93 76 90 74 / 60 30 60 20 MCO 92 77 90 77 / 60 30 60 20 MLB 91 75 91 74 / 60 30 60 20 VRB 93 77 91 75 / 60 30 60 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST LONG TERM....LASCODY 401 FXUS63 KPAH 310640 AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 140 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 .DISCUSSION... WITH DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST CYCLE...NOT AS MUCH TO FOCUS ON...SO MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE DAILY TEMPERATURES. WRAP AROUND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND MOVING AWAY. IN HER WAKE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY INTERVENE...BUT ON THURSDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA. MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT ARE LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ONLY A DECK OF STRATO-CU EXPECTED. GFS DRAGGING A VORT MAX ACROSS THE CWA COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONT AND CRANKS OUT .01 QPF...BUT DOESN'T REALLY SHOW ANY KIND OF UPPER SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT...SO WILL KEEP IT DRY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS TIME. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST WITH TIME WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP US COOLER...BUT ALSO OPEN UP THE DOOR TO RIPPLES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...THEREFORE WILL BE REALLY SUPRISED IF WE REMAIN DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. SINCE MODELS NOT PICKING UP ON A STRONG ENOUGH SIGNAL TO INDICATE OTHERWISE...WILL KEEP IT DRY ATTM. MODEL MOS TEMPERATURES REASONABLE AND SIMILAR...SO WENT WITH A BLEND THEREOF. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ JAP 677 FXUS62 KCHS 310641 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 240 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT/...REMNANTS OF KATRINA TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES TDA WHILE A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT HEADS TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WARM SWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S AND WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY CONTINUING...EXPECT HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 105 DEGREES AGAIN. THUS...WILL ISSUE ANOTHER SPS AND HIGHLIGHT IN ZFP AND HWO. WILL TRIM BACK POPS TO SLGT CHC CATEGORY FOR MOST OF THE CWA DOWN TO AROUND I-16 WITH 30 POPS S OF THERE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLGT CHC POPS OVERNIGHT FOR GA ZONES WITH LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THU LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AGAIN BUT WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS...THE HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE AOB 102 DEGREES. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO SC SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KILL PRECIP CHANCES SO WILL GO DRY FOR SC ZONES WHILE CONTINUING A SLGT CHC FOR GA. THU NIGHT WILL BE DRY EVERYWHERE AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DRIVING THE DRIER AIR FURTHER S. && .LONG TERM /FRI THRU TUE/...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE AREA PROVIDING DRY WX THROUGH SUN. MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S THROUGH SAT WITH 80S FOR THE SUN-TUE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS ALOFT LOWER. UPPER TROUGHING COMBINED WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE SFC FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WARRANTS SLGT CHC POPS FOR MON AND TUE. && .MARINE...20-30 KT LLJ MIXING OUT QUITE WELL ACROSS PARTS OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BORDERLINE SCEC CONDITIONS. MAY NEED TO START OFF WITH CLOSE TO 20 KT FROM THE SW TO INIT THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE BELIEVE WINDS SHOULD EBB A BIT THROUGH EARLY AFTN...INCREASE AGAIN INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT PRECEDING A WEAK BACKDOOR LIKE WSHFT ON THU. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE FROM THEIR CURRENT CHOPPY 3 TO 5 FOOT STATE TO 3 FT OR LESS THU INTO FRI WITH LIGHTER FLOW. FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM THE NW SHOULD CAUSE NE WINDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THIS TREND LOOKS GOOD. OUR GRIDS SHOW SEAS BUILDING TOWARD SCA CRITERIA ON SUNDAY AND PLAN NO CHANGES FOR THE LATTER PERIODS. THREAT FOR PINCHING SFC PRES GRADIENT CLOSER TO THE COAST SEEMS VERY POSSIBLE IN THE DAY 5 TO 7 PERIODS. && .AVIATION...ALMOST NO CHANGE FROM 00Z TAF PACKAGE WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. MODELS SHOW THAT SAV AIRPORT MAY BE A BIT CLOSER TO ANY AFTN CONVECTION...BUT JUST CONTINUED A CB MENTION ON 06Z RELEASE. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ 44/24 837 FXUS61 KCLE 310641 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 241 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRIDAY)... EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES REMNANT KATRINA LOW JUST SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA...AT OR JUST SOUTH OF COLUMBUS OH. AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN HAD MOVED OVER LAKE ERIE...AND EXTENDED EASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. CLE 88D INDICATING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN ACROSS FORECAST AREA HAS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE 04Z...WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN REMAINING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 71. BRIEF BREAKS IN THE RAIN NOTED FURTHER WEST...WHERE SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED AT BEST. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AIR ROTATING AROUND BASE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW...PROBABLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAPID DROPOFF IN AREAL COVERAGE PREVIOUSLY NOTED ON RADAR. LIKEWISE...COLDEST CLOUD TOPS PER IR CHANNEL NOW OVER LAKE ERIE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH ONLY STRATIFORM-LIKE CLOUD TEMPS REMAINING OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. MEANWHILE ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT PLAINS...WITH WARM AIR SURGING ALL THE WAY INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A DIGGING SHORTWAVE WAS RIDING ALONG THE MONTANA-SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...AND RAPIDLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THIS WAVE...A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES WERE EMBEDDED WITHIN HIGHLY DISTURBED ONSHORE ZONAL FLOW. AS THE REMNANT UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS DEPART THE REGION THIS MORNING...EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST. PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING WHEN PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 00Z GFS...AND ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO DRY THINGS OUT A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN THE PREFERRED MODEL DURING THIS EVENT...WOULD LIKE TO HOLD ONTO SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS NW PA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FEEL THAT THIS MAY BE REASONABLE...SINCE 850 AND 700MB WINDS DO NOT BECOME NORTHWESTERLY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...BUT I COMPLETELY DRIED THINGS OUT BY THIS EVENING. WILL HOLD ONTO FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT UNTIL MAJORITY OF PRECIP EXITS THE AREA...AS SOME LOCATIONS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING FLOOD PROBLEMS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER BEHIND LOW TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM MICHIGAN. AS FOR TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV/FWC...MET SLIGHTLY TOO WARM. HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL. THE WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WILL APPROACH THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRECEDED BY A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM 850-700MB WHICH EXTENDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO CINCINNATI. BEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF OHIO...THEREFORE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP TO RESULT FROM THIS WAVE...PROBABLY ONLY SOME AFTERNOON CU. MUCH LIKE TODAYS FORECAST...WENT WITH BLEND OF MAV/FWC FOR TEMPS..ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. NO CHANGES MADE TO GOING FORECAST. && .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND FORCE SOME COOLER AIR SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING AND ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA AS WELL WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTING UP FOR A PLEASANT HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. I MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO THE TEMPERATURES TO MAKE THEM SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS TRENDING TOWARD SOME SLOW AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND COLD POOL WILL BRUSH BY THE AREA. && .AVIATION (06Z-06Z)... HEAVIEST RAFL TRYING TO MOVE NE OUT OF THE AREA ATTM ALTHOUGH SOME BANDS OF MOD TO LCLY HVR RAFL STILL RMN. CENTER OF CIRCULATION NOW JUST SW OF KCMH MOVG NE AND SHOULD BE NEAR KYNG ARND 10Z. MSTLY MVFR CONDS ACRS RGN ATTM WITH EMBEDDED IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. XPC THIS TO CONT THRU 12Z IN THE WEST WITH CONDS IMPVG TO VFR FM W TO E THRU 20Z. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...FLOOD WATCH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTRN THRU WED AFTRN. .PA...FLOOD WATCH ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES THIS AFTRN THRU WED AFTRN. $$ SHORT TERM...LEINS LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...TK 680 FXUS63 KSGF 310648 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 148 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 .DISCUSSION... A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAD SETTLED ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS...THE REMNANTS OF KATRINA HAD MOVED WELL OFF TO THE EAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILERS DEPICTED A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WAS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLANS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED AS THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS SHUT OFF IN THE WAKE OF KATRINA. HOWEVER MOISTURE POOLING AND MODEST INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT PUSHES INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI. A FEW STORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF EXITING FRONT. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH WARMER CONDITIONS BY THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE EXPAND NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. FOSTER && .AVIATION... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF CYCLE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. A FRONT MAY REACH EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS THIS BOUNDARY WON'T HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SAW && SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MO...NONE. .KS...NONE. $$ WFO SGF 238 FXUS63 KARX 310650 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 150 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2005 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON THE PCPN CHANCES FOR TODAY. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CHURN EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY THU AFTERNOON. THIS TRACK WILL TAKE THE BULK OF THE FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...A SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL MN AND IA THIS AFTERNOON...WORKING EAST ACROSS THE BADGER STATE THIS EVENING. SOME 700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH QG CONVERGENCE IN THE 850:700 MB LAYER. LITTLE IF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE INCOMING SYSTEM...AS THE MAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO WHAT IS LEFT OF KATRINA. THIS LACK OF A TAP INTO THE GULF WILL ALSO KEEP THE INSTABILITY IN CHECK...WITH SBCAPES ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 500 J/KG. DECENT 0-3 KM WIND SHEAR THOUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND 25 KTS. ALL IN ALL...NOT THAT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. STILL...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...DESPITE NOT HAVING MORE "FAVORABLE" PARAMETERS. SO...EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE FRONT LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE "BETTER" CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE THE DEEPER SATURATION WILL LIE...AND ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WITH THE FRONT PULLING EAST TONIGHT...AND MAIN SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE HANGS WITH THE LOW...BUT THE RESULTING CLOUDS LOOK TO STAY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF MN AND WI. ON THU...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...ALONG WITH LINGERING MOISTURE...WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS TO THE FAR NORTH FOR ANOTHER DAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC HIGH WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE PLAINS STATES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A SUNNY DAY. HOWEVER...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT YET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW...WHICH...MORE OR LESS...MERGES WITH WHAT/S LEFT OF KATRINA...WILL MAKE FOR A SOMEWHAT BREEZY DAY. THE REGION WILL COME UNDER THE FULL INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH BY FRIDAY...BRINGING A RATHER TRANQUIL AND PLEASANT END TO THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...NOT A LOT OF CLOUDS TO WORRY ABOUT UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING EAST FOR THE EVENING. MORE SUN FOR THU...BUT BREEZY...WITH CONTINUED SUNNY BUT CALMER FOR FRIDAY. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT "SIGNIFICANT" SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE DGEX/GFS...WHILE MANY OF COMPONENTS OF THE MOST RECENT ENSEMBLE RUN POINT TO AN EVEN SLOWER SOLUTION. NOT SOLD ON THE QUICKER EC AT THE MOMENT...AND FEELING RIGHT NOW IS THAT THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS WILL WIN OUT. ONGOING FORECAST ALREADY HAS THIS COVERED...AND WILL MAKE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ RIECK 377 FXUS63 KIND 310650 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 145 AM EST WED AUG 31 2005 .DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS WL BE ON MRNG POPS AND CLD CVR AS REMANTS OF KATRINA MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE NE. AT 06Z...KATRINA WAS NEAR KCMH. KIND-88D HAD AN AREA OF MODERATE RW'S WITH THE BACK EDGE FM AROUND ELWOOD TO INDIANAPOLIS TO SEYMOUR. THE AREA WAS MOVING E AND SHOULD MOSTLY BE E OF THE FA BY 12Z...BUT KEEP SLGT CHC POPS IN FOR THE MRNG FAR E JUST IN CASE. OTHERWISE...WENT WITH THE GFS ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY WITH ITS RECENT SUPERIOR HANDLING OF KATRINA AND UPSTREAM SYSTEMS. DESPITE WEAK SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING E ACRS THE FA TODAY...UPR TROFFING AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS/TIME SECS KEEP DECENT CU FIELD ACRS THE ENTIRE FA TODAY. THIS CLD CVR SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LWR 80S PER GFS/MET MOS. TNGT...COLUMN DRIES FURTHER ALLOWING FOR CLRG SKIES. LGT NW FLOW TNGT TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS IN THE LWR 60S PER GFS/MET MOS. WEAK S/W AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOIST MOVES ACRS IN THE ZONAL FLOW ON THU WHICH SHOULD KEEP SOME CU AROUND. WOULDN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RW EITHER...BUT BELIEVE CHC TOO LOW TO MENTION. REST OF THE FCST PD LOOKS DRY AS ZONAL FLOW GIVES WAY TO A STG UPR RIDGE BUILDING IN FM THE SW OVER THE WEEKEND. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ KOCH 671 FXUS61 KOKX 310651 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 250 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005 .NEAR TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD ARE THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINS. WILL THE METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER GO OUT WITH A BANG? THE SURFACE REMNANTS OF KATRINA ARE CURRENTLY MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OHIO. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OF KATRINA QUITE STRONG AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AS WELL...AND WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROF OVER THE EASTERN GR LAKES TODAY. OKX RADAR IS VERY QUIET AS OF 0630Z...WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO SPEAK OF OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA. THERE ARE SEVERAL PROS AND CONS TO CONSIDER TODAY AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL GOES. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS AS WELL. AS THE SFC LOPRES CENTER MOVES BY TO OUR NW TODAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL S/W WILL APPROACH. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES SHEAR PROFILES BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE...WITH NEARLY 50 KT OF WIND IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER PROGGED DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...THE NAM IS INDICATING THAT SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY BACKED TO ALLOW FOR 200-300 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM HELICITY. LCL'S WILL BE QUITE LOW GIVEN THE VERY HIGH (MID 70S) DEWPOINTS. OVERALL...THE NAM PROFILES FOR THIS AFTERNOON ARE BLATANTLY TORNADIC IF (AND THIS IS A BIG IF) DISCRETE CELLS CAN DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. IT MUST BE NOTED THAT THE GFS IS VEERING THE SFC WINDS OUT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IF VERIFIED...WOULD LIMIT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND PROVIDE FOR A LESS FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT. THE PROBLEM IS INSTABILITY AND A FEW OTHER FACTORS SUCH AS THE VERY WARM 500 MB TEMPS AND DRY SLOT. THE BIGGEST MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY (WHICH DEPENDS ON HEATING). EARLY MORNING SHOTS OF THE IR (BEFORE THE ECLIPSE) AS WELL AS SFC OBS SHOW LOADS OF CLOUDS. I'M CURRENTLY THINKING IT WILL BE HARD TO GET AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUNSHINE ANYWHERE IN THE CWA TODAY DUE TO VERY MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. WE NEED TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID 80S TO HAVE A SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER I THINK. IT'LL BE A STRUGGLE...BUT ANY BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET THERE SINCE WE'RE ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S REGIONWIDE AS OF 0630Z. CONVECTION INITIATION WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE. THE HISTORY WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT SHOWN MUCH IN THE WAY OF TORNADIC ACTIVITY AS COMPARED TO OTHER TROPICAL REMNANT SYSTEMS IN RECENT HISTORY. PLUME OF EXTREMELY WARM AIR AT AND AROUND 500 MB (-1 TO -4C) WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION TODAY...WHICH COULD MAKE CONVECTION INITIATION A CHALLENGE. WE ARE ALSO PROGGED TO BE IN THE RFQ OF A 250 MB JET MAX TODAY...WHICH ISN'T EXACTLY FAVORABLE. SO IN SHORT...IF WE COULD GET TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S TODAY AND DISCRETE STORMS CAN INDEED DEVELOP IN THE HIGHLY SHEARED AIRMASS...THE THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLD TORNADOES EXISTS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT I CAN'T RULE OUT SOMETHING IN THE MORNING EITHER GIVEN THE DAMAGING STORMS ALREADY OCCURRING ACRS CENTRAL PA. RAINFALL IS ANOTHER ISSUE. ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY PATHETIC IN THEIR QPF AND POP FORECASTS THE LAST FEW DAYS. ACCORDING TO THEM...WE SHOULD HAVE BEEN TROUNCED WITH 2-4" OF RAIN CWA-WIDE OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST 2 DAYS OR SO. NOT THE CASE AT ALL. I SEE THIS TREND CONTINUING...SO I WILL LIMIT TODAY'S POPS TO HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY DEPENDING ON RADAR TRENDS BEFORE PACKAGE ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...IT MUST BE NOTED THAT WITH PWATS SO HIGH ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE 2"+ HOURLY RAINFALL RATES. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY TODAY AS SYNOPTIC GRADIENT TIGHTENS. COULD SEE GUSTS ~30 MPH OUTSIDE OF STORMS. PRECIP CLEARS OUT OF HERE THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS ON THE DECREASE LATE. && .SHORT TERM (THURSDAY AND FRIDAY)... DRY AND QUITE WARM THIS PERIOD. SHOULD SEE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON THURS WITH GOOD DOWNSLOPE. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST HERE. && .MARINE...COMING SOON. && .AVIATION...COMING SOON. && .HYDROLOGY...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2"+. THIS COULD PRESENT A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. && .FIRE WEATHER...POTENTIAL FOR IGNITION AND RAPID SPREAD OF FIRE WILL BE QUITE LOW TODAY DUE TO VERY HIGH RH VALUES. HOWEVER...IF SUBSTANTIAL RAIN DOES NOT FALL TODAY...THE FIRE THREAT WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS THE MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN FOR THURS AND BEYOND. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE... && $$ PUBLIC...EKSTER AVN/MARINE...DW 095 FXUS61 KBOX 310652 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 252 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)... COMING SOON. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND THU. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND PROVIDES DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS DOES BRING A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ONE FRI AND ANOTHER SUN...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND WE ONLY EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS BOTH DAYS WITH UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. && .AVIATION... COMING SOON. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM COMING SOON. IN THE LONGER TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER REGION. WE EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS OVER WEEKEND WITH LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. && .HYDROLOGY... LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ONCE AGAIN A THREAT TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN WILL REMAIN W OF NEW ENGLAND AS REMNANTS OF KATRINA TRACK THROUGH EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGH...BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR TRAINING ECHOES WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED 4-5" RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CERTAINLY THERE IS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ230>237-250-254-255. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...EVT LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...JWD 026 FXUS62 KTBW 310653 AFDTBW WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 250 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...RIDGE BOTH SFC AND ALOFT CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WILL MAINTAIN A WEST TO SW LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA TODAY. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN PREV DAY OR SO...AND THIS PAST MON AND TUE BASICALLY ENDED WITH MOST OF THE DAYS RAINS FALLING NORTH OF TAMPA BAY AND ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. AS SUCH...MAV POPS HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOO HIGH THESE DAYS. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL FLOW PATTERN...THINK MAV POPS STILL REMAINING TOO HIGH...ESP WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER TOP THE REGION THRU FRI. ON THE OTHER HAND...A WEAK TROF EXTENDING SW FROM THE KATRINA REMNANTS WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATER TODAY AND THU...THEN IS PROGGED TO SETTLE OVER THE NORTHERN OR CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE ON FRI. REGARDING FORECAST POPS...WILL GO WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF OUR FA...BUT WILL GO WITH LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL AGAIN BE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR DAYTIME HOURS THU AND FRI AS WEAK SFC TROF APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THU AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRI. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH AND INLAND. && .LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-TUE)...MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW FROM FORMER HURRICANE KATRINA. THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH NORTHERN FLORIDA BY FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING AS IT MIGRATES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE....KEEPING PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON PERIODS AS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES DEVELOP. WINDS WILL BECOME GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US ON THE WAKE OF KATRINA. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR AT CLIMO VALUES. MORNING LOWS WILL REMAIN ONE OR TWO DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. && .MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA ATTM...SO ALL MARINE HEADLINES ARE DOWN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER OUR WATERS. FAIR TO FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS THRU SATURDAY...THEN NE WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE ON SUN AS THE PRES GRAD INCREASES BEHIND THE SFC TROF. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO MAJOR FIRE WX CONCERNS ATTM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 79 89 78 / 50 20 50 20 FMY 91 78 89 77 / 50 20 50 20 GIF 91 78 92 76 / 50 20 50 20 SRQ 89 81 88 77 / 50 20 50 20 BKV 90 76 89 73 / 50 30 50 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETRO LONG TERM....REYNES 515 FXUS63 KIWX 310655 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 154 AM EST WED AUG 31 2005 .SHORT TERM... MID LVL DEFORMATION BAND CONTS TO BREAKING DOWN THIS AM AS KATRINA REMNANTS HEAD INTO SE ONTARIO AND SUSPECT RAIN TO COME TO AN END ACRS SE CWA SHORTLY AFT DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE CAA AND RESIDUAL LL MSTR SHLD CU EXTENSIVELY BY LATE AM ESP AS LAGGING CIRRUS SHIELD DEPARTS. OTHERWISE SFC RIDGING AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT LOOK TO PROMOTE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIKELY FOG ESP SE HALF. WILL CONT GOING SCA TIL EVENING W/DECENT GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE AND CAA TDA AIDING MIXING OVR LK MI. SRN LK MI BUOY WAS REPORTING 6+ FOOT WAVES EARLIER BUT HAVE FALLEN SINCE. HWVR SHLD SEE A BIT MORE WIND YET THIS MORNING WITH SUNRISE AND THEN GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THE AFTN W/WAVES SUBSIDING THEN. && .LONG TERM... FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND A RETURN TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND PREVIOUS RUNS, SO DON'T INTEND TO MAKE MANY CHANGES, ALTHOUGH TIMING WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY FOR LATER PERIODS IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FROM HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND TO HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION... LAGGING MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE STILL PRODUCING ADDNL RAINFALL ACRS SE CWA ALTHOUGH BEGINNING TO BREAKUP AS KATRINA REMNANTS HEAD INTO CANADA. CONTD VEERING LL FLW ADVTG DRIER AIR SWD W/RAPID IMPROVEMENT XPCD AT FWA BFR 12Z AND VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES REST OF TDA. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-LMZ046. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN LONG TERM...SKIPPER 608 FXUS63 KIND 310655 CCA AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 150 AM EST WED AUG 31 2005 .DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS WL BE ON MRNG POPS AND CLD CVR AS REMANTS OF KATRINA MOVE QUICKLY OFF TO THE NE. AT 06Z...KATRINA WAS NEAR KCMH. KIND-88D HAD AN AREA OF MODERATE RW'S WITH THE BACK EDGE FM AROUND ELWOOD TO INDIANAPOLIS TO SEYMOUR. THE AREA WAS MOVING E AND SHOULD MOSTLY BE E OF THE FA BY 12Z...BUT KEEP SLGT CHC POPS IN FOR THE MRNG FAR E JUST IN CASE. WITH PRECIP MOVING E INTO OH...WL ALLOW URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM EST. OTHERWISE...WENT WITH THE GFS ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY WITH ITS RECENT SUPERIOR HANDLING OF KATRINA AND UPSTREAM SYSTEMS. DESPITE WEAK SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING E ACRS THE FA TODAY...UPR TROFFING AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS/TIME SECS KEEP DECENT CU FIELD ACRS THE ENTIRE FA TODAY. THIS CLD CVR SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LWR 80S PER GFS/MET MOS. TNGT...COLUMN DRIES FURTHER ALLOWING FOR CLRG SKIES. LGT NW FLOW TNGT TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS IN THE LWR 60S PER GFS/MET MOS. WEAK S/W AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOIST MOVES ACRS IN THE ZONAL FLOW ON THU WHICH SHOULD KEEP SOME CU AROUND. WOULDN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RW EITHER...BUT BELIEVE CHC TOO LOW TO MENTION. REST OF THE FCST PD LOOKS DRY AS ZONAL FLOW GIVES WAY TO A STG UPR RIDGE BUILDING IN FM THE SW OVER THE WEEKEND. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FOR INC005-013-021-027-031-055-059-063-065-071 -079-081-083-093-097-101-10 5-109-119-139-145-153-167-. && $$ KOCH ADDED INFO ON URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY 030 FXUS63 KIWX 310656 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 154 AM EST WED AUG 31 2005 .SHORT TERM... MID LVL DEFORMATION BAND CONTS TO BREAKING DOWN THIS AM AS KATRINA REMNANTS HEAD INTO SE ONTARIO AND SUSPECT RAIN TO COME TO AN END ACRS SE CWA SHORTLY AFT DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE CAA AND RESIDUAL LL MSTR SHLD CU EXTENSIVELY BY LATE AM ESP AS LAGGING CIRRUS SHIELD DEPARTS. OTHERWISE SFC RIDGING AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT LOOK TO PROMOTE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIKELY FOG ESP SE HALF. WILL CONT GOING SCA TIL EVENING W/DECENT GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE AND CAA TDA AIDING MIXING OVR LK MI. SRN LK MI BUOY WAS REPORTING 6+ FOOT WAVES EARLIER BUT HAVE FALLEN SINCE. HWVR SHLD SEE A BIT MORE WIND YET THIS MORNING WITH SUNRISE AND THEN GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THE AFTN W/WAVES SUBSIDING THEN. && .LONG TERM... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...BUT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LIMITED MOISTURE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. NEW 31/00Z MEX KEEPS TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION... LAGGING MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE STILL PRODUCING ADDNL RAINFALL ACRS SE CWA ALTHOUGH BEGINNING TO BREAKUP AS KATRINA REMNANTS HEAD INTO CANADA. CONTD VEERING LL FLW ADVTG DRIER AIR SWD W/RAPID IMPROVEMENT XPCD AT FWA BFR 12Z AND VFR AT BOTH TAF SITES REST OF TDA. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-LMZ046. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN LONG TERM...SKIPPER 605 FXUS62 KGSP 310657 AFDGSP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 256 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... LOWER LEVELS HAVE DRIED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WAKE OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA. MODELS ADVERTISE A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW EARLY TODAY SWINGS TO DOWNSLOPE WITH TROF SWINGING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH DRYING ATMOSPHERE AND DOWNSLOPE...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BUT WE MAY SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH WESTERLY UPSLOPE INTO THE HIGHER NORTH CAROLINA TERRAIN. WIND FIELDS REMAIN STRONG EARLY TODAY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL INDICATE SOME GUSTINESS. WILL BUMP UP WIND SPEEDS EARLY IN THE TODAY PERIOD. NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT WIND FIELDS WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS BEST GRADIENT LIFTS NORTH BUT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM COULD STILL PROVIDE HIGH GUSTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AFTER BUMPING UP MOUNTAIN WINDS THIS MORNING...A WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MOUNTAIN LAKES WILL BE ISSUED THROUGH NOON. BREEZY WORDING FOR REST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BUT WILL INCLUDE WORDING THAT GUSTS MAY APPROACH 40 TO 45 MPH THIS MORNING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER TO BEGIN IN EARNEST TONIGHT...WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE AND NO FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND. WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PLEASANTLY COOL DEWPOINTS FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... POOLING OF RECOVERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN A BIT MORE UPSLOPE CLOUDS EARLY IN THE LONGER TERM BUT OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES MADE TO THESE PERIODS WITH THIS PACKAGE. && .AVIATION... LAST RESIDUAL MVFR STRATOCU AROUND KCLT SHOULD MOVE EAST NO LATER THAN 07Z AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SW. MEANWHILE... SHRINKING POOL OF MOSTLY VFR STRATOCU CEILINGS OVER AND W OF MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE MID MORNING OR THEREABOUTS. ONLY KAVL APPEARS TO HAVE A SHOT OF SEEING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...SO THAT IS INCLUDED IN A TEMPO GROUP. OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER SITES COULD HAVE A LOW VFR CEILING THIS MORNING...BUT THAT SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY 15-17Z AS 850MB FLOW COMES AROUND TO WEST AND DOWNSLOPE KILLS THE CLOUDINESS. THE OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY EVE AND OVERNIGHT IS CLEAR WITH LIGHT/VAR WIND. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-049-050 FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO NOON THURSDAY. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SAB LONG TERM...SAB AVIATION...PM