AFDFTW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
943 PM CDT MON SEP 4 2000
WILL UPDATE AND REMOVE ISOLATED THUNDER FROM THE NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE...A SLOW AND GRADUAL "COOLING" INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOWER
100S FOR OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS LOOKS GOOD. SOME OF THE MODELS
DROP THE TEMPERATURES ALL THE WAY INTO THE 80S. THIS APPEARS TO BE
A TYPICAL MODEL RESPONSE IN MOVING TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
TIME...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS. CONTINUATION OF
RIDGING ALOFT (AND RESULTING SUBSIDENCE)...AND THE VERY HOT...DRY
NATURE OF THE GROUND SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE THESE MID 80 TO
LOWER 90 VALUES.
.FTW...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
26
AFDSAT
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
935 PM CDT MON SEP 4 2000
NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED ON THIS PACKAGE.
.EWX...NEAR RECORD HEAT TUESDAY
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BALCONES
ESCARPMENT, OAK WOODLANDS AND EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
AFDHOU
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
835 PM CDT MON SEP 4 2000
SHRA/TSRA MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE VERSUS LAST TWO NIGHTS.
LAST CELL EXITING WASHINGTON COUNTY ATTM. SHD BE ABLE TO DROP
MENTION FROM ZONES FOR THIS EVENINGS UPDATE.
MAJOR FCST ISSUES ARE MAX TEMPS AND FIRE DANGER. SETX IS A TINDERBOX
RIGHT NOW. HEARD OVER NAWAS REPORTS OF ANOTHER FIRE RECENTLY STARTED
IN BURLESON COUNTY. PERHAPS FROM TSTM THAT PASSED THROUGH THERE IN
THE LAST HR. OTHER ONGOING FIRE ACTIVITY IN LIBERTY...MONTGOMERY...
AND SRN HARRIS COUNTIES. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH TEMPS AND LOW
RH TMRW. ISOLD SEVERE CONVECTION PSBL DUE TO HIGH INSTAB...BUT
COVERAGE AND PRECIP AMTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
SOME GRADUAL RELIEF MAY BE IN THE WORKS. MODELS FINALLY BEGIN TO
BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN DRG THE MID AND LATE WEEK...AND INCREASE OUR
MOISTURE LEVELS.
HATS OFF TO AREA FIRE CREWS. I CAN'T IMAGINE A MORE MISERABLE JOB
THAN FIGHTING A FIRE WHEN ITS 110 DEGREES OUTSIDE.
CURR FCST IS FINE EXCEPT WILL REMOVE TSTM MENTION FIRST PERIOD. MORE
TEMP RECORDS WILL FALL BY THE WAYSIDE TMRW.
.KHGX...HEAT ADVISORY ALL ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RED FLAG WARNING ALL ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY.
46/36/35
PRELIMS...
CLL GG 076/108 072/104 070 -22
IAH GG 074/106 072/100 069 022
GLS UU 080/097 079/093 076 012
RECORDS...
TUE 9/5 WED 9/6 SEPT ALL-TIME
CLL 102/1913 104/1913 112/2000* 112/2000* *SET TDA
IAH 98/1990 97/1999 109/2000* 109/2000* *SET TDA
GLS 94/1990 94/1912 101/2000* 101/1932/2000* *TIED TDA
END
AFDCRP
COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
834 PM CDT MON SEP 4 2000
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR BOTH CRP AND VCT WERE ESTABLISHED
TODAY. INCREDIBLY IT STILL REMAINS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 IN
MANY INLAND LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME. 00Z 850 TEMPS SHOWED TEMPS
CLOSE TO 26 DEG CELSIUS. THE ENTIRE SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY DEEP
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING LAYER FROM THE SFC UP TO 650 MB. MORE
INDICATIVE OF WEST TX THAN SOUTH TX...THAT IS FOR SURE.
THE MAIN CONCERN TNT WL BE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. ANY AMOUNT OF MIXING
WL PREVENT LOWS FROM GETTING TOO COOL TNT...GIVEN THE VERY WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER. THINK THE GRADIENT WL BE LIGHT ENOUGH AND PREVENT
MUCH IF ANY MIXING TO OCCUR. THUS OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE 70S IN MOST AREAS.
MARINE...WK SWLY FLOW WL DOMINATE TNT. THE SMALL FETCH WL KEEP SEAS
3 FT OR LESS. NO FLAGS EXPECTED.
MB
.CRP...NONE.
AFDBRO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
730 PM CDT MON SEP 4 2000
RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES WERE USHERED INTO THE RIO GRANDE VLY ON
THE HEELS OF A SW WIND TDY. CLR SKIES ALLOWED GOOD INSOLATION AS
DWPTS DROPPED TO 14 DEG C IN MFE...17 IN BRO. RECORD HIGH FOR THIS
DATE OF 103 DEG F WAS EXPERIENCED IN BRO TDY...BREAKING THE
PREVIOUS MARK OF 100 DEG F FM 1902! A DAILY RECORD HIGH WAS ALSO SET
SUNDAY IN BRO...AS THE MERCURY SOARED TO 99 DEG F.
NGM/AVN INIT BEST WITH THE SFC DWPT FIELD...IDENTIFYING THE DRY AIR
ENTRY TO COASTAL AREAS OF DEEP S TX AND THE COASTAL BEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE NGM MOS
GUIDANCE...WHICH PROBABLY HAS BEEN WRONGFULLY SKEWED HIGH BY
CLIMATOLOGY. AVN HAS CREATED H7 UVM OVR NRN DEEP S TX EARLY WED
MRNG...SHOWING RAFL IN THE NRN AND WRN VLY THEN. THIS MDL SHOWS
ADVECTION OF MSTR TO THE VLY FM THE NRN GULF OF MEX FM EARLY WED
THRU WED PM. NGM HINTS AT RAFL MORE NE...FM BAFFIN BAY TO CRP. MRF
SIMILAR TO AVN...WITH GREATER CHC FOR SHRAS EARLY WED...AND BOTH
MDLS SHOW MSTR AND LIFT POISED OVR THE ADJ GULF BY THU MRNG...WITH
ADVECTION XPCTD TO CONTINUE WEST OVR VLY WITH TIME.
ANOTHER HOT DAY SET FOR TUE...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TDY. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO INCREASE ON WED...KEEPING HIGHS MODIFIED. AS FOR THE RA
POSSIBILITIES...WL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FCST WHICH HOLD RA UNTIL
FRI/SAT...AND SUGGEST A RETHINK OF EARLIER ENTRY OF POPS IF THE 00Z
RUNS CONTINUE TO SKEW THAT WAY. WL LEAVE CURRENT ZFPBRO UNCHANGED.
MARINE...WEAK SW TO S FLOW OFFSHORE NOW...WITH SEAS OF 1 FOOT. THIS
VARIABLE LIGHT WIND FIELD WL CONTINUE THRU EARLY WED MRNG...BECMG
MORE NE LATER WED AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KT DURING THE PM. SCT
SHRAS/TSRAS WL DEVELOP BY LATE WED EVENING...POSSIBLY LASTING THRU
MON. WL FOLLOW CURRENT AVN/MRF SOLUTION TO EXTENDED POPS AND WIND
FIELD FOR CWF. SYN...PHILO 58/HMT...MARTINEZ
.WFO BRO INTERNET ADDRESS...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO
.BRO...NONE.
AFDBRO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
730 PM CDT MON SEP 4 2000
RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES WERE USHERED INTO THE RIO GRANDE VLY ON
THE HEALS OF A SW WIND TDY. CLR SKIES ALLOWED GOOD INSOLATION AS
DWPTS DROPPED TO 14 DEG C IN MFE...17 IN BRO. RECORD HIGH FOR THIS
DATE OF 103 DEG F WAS EXPERIENCED IN BRO TDY...BREAKING THE
PREVIOUS MARK OF 100 DEG F FM 1902! A DAILY RECORD HIGH WAS ALSO SET
SUNDAY IN BRO...AS THE MERCURY SOARED TO 99 DEG F.
NGM/AVN INIT BEST WITH THE SFC DWPT FIELD...IDENTIFYING THE DRY AIR
ENTRY TO COASTAL AREAS OF DEEP S TX AND THE COASTAL BEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE NGM MOS
GUIDANCE...WHICH PROBABLY HAS BEEN WRONGFULLY SKEWED HIGH BY
CLIMATOLOGY. AVN HAS CREATED H7 UVM OVR NRN DEEP S TX EARLY WED
MRNG...SHOWING RAFL IN THE NRN AND WRN VLY THEN. THIS MDL SHOWS
ADVECTION OF MSTR TO THE VLY FM THE NRN GULF OF MEX FM EARLY WED
THRU WED PM. NGM HINTS AT RAFL MORE NE...FM BAFFIN BAY TO CRP. MRF
SIMILAR TO AVN...WITH GREATER CHC FOR SHRAS EARLY WED...AND BOTH
MDLS SHOW MSTR AND LIFT POISED OVR THE ADJ GULF BY THU MRNG...WITH
ADVECTION XPCTD TO CONTINUE WEST OVR VLY WITH TIME.
ANOTHER HOT DAY SET FOR TUE...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TDY. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO INCREASE ON WED...KEEPING HIGHS MODIFIED. AS FOR THE RA
POSSIBILITIES...WL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FCST WHICH HOLD RA UNTIL
FRI/SAT...AND SUGGEST A RETHINK OF EARLIER ENTRY OF POPS IF THE 00Z
RUNS CONTINUE TO SKEW THAT WAY. WL LEAVE CURRENT ZFPBRO UNCHANGED.
MARINE...WEAK SW TO S FLOW OFFSHORE NOW...WITH SEAS OF 1 FOOT. THIS
VARIABLE LIGHT WIND FIELD WL CONTINUE THRU EARLY WED MRNG...BECMG
MORE NE LATER WED AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KT DURING THE PM. SCT
SHRAS/TSRAS WL DEVELOP BY LATE WED EVENING...POSSIBLY LASTING THRU
MON. WL FOLLOW CURRENT AVN/MRF SOLUTION TO EXTENDED POPS AND WIND
FIELD FOR CWF. SYN...PHILO 58/HMT...MARTINEZ
.WFO BRO INTERNET ADDRESS...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO
.BRO...NONE.
AFDFTW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
605 PM CDT MON SEP 4 2000
AVIATION...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LYING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SURFACE RIDGE NOSING INTO FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS IS CAUSING
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT LATE AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RELAX AFTER DARK...BUT CONTINUING GENERALLY
EAST OVERNIGHT...THEN NORTHEAST TUESDAY. SOME CUMULUS BOILING UP
AGAIN TUESDAY AS RECORD HEAT CONTINUES. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS.
===============================================================
300 PM CDT MON SEP 4 2000 DISCUSSION
WELL...DFW HAS BEEN UP TO 111 DEGREES. IS THIS REALLY SEPTEMBER?
WITH BIG SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO EASTERN U. S. OUT OF CANADA...
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NOT QUITE AS HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES STILL TOO LOW. LIKELY SCENARIO IS COOLER OVERNIGHT
LOWS BUT DRIER AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 100 WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
DFW 79/106/77/102 0000
ACT 75/107/74/103 0000
.FTW...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
59
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
404 PM CDT MON SEP 4 2000
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA HAS LED TO ANOTHER DAY OF
RECORD HEAT ACROSS WEST TEXAS. TEN LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWFA
ESTABLISHED NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY...AS MANY
LOCATIONS PROBABLY EXCEEDED RECORD TEMPERATURES TODAY. FOR
INFORMATION CONCERNING RECORDS THAT WERE BROKEN YESTERDAY AND RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND.
ADDITIONAL CLIMATE DATA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS CAN
BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING SITE:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/maf/Coop_Climate/climate.html
LOSS OF DOWNSLOPE SFC WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHT COOLING IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASING 700-300 MB
MEAN RH VALUES ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
PRELIMINARY CCF...
MAF 72/101/72/99 0000
LSA 67/100/67/97 0000
E41 70/100/70/102 0000
6R6 72/101/72/99 0000
MRF 60/ 93/60/92 00--
CNM 70/101/70/101 0000
.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
AFDSAT
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
323 PM CDT MON SEP 04 2000
UPPER HIGH STILL IN CONTROL BUT WOBBLES AROUND THE EDGES. NORTHERLY
WINDS ALOFT TOMORROW WILL PUSH COLD FRONT BACKDOOR STYLE INTO THE
EASTER COUNTIES. RECORD BREAKER HIGHS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH HIGHEST
THICKNESS AND LOW HUMIDITIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL PUT 20% POPS
IN MAINLY FOR TUESDAY EVENING. THE HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RAIN AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FIRES OVER THE PARCHED
GROUND. UPPER LEVEL 50KT WINDS WILL DRIVE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. ALONG THE RIO GRANDE EXPECT TEMPS STILL IN THE 100S.
THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PULL OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT
PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. FOR US IT SPELLS ANOTHER HOT
DAY WITH NO RAIN AS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LEVELS DROP AGAIN. THE
EAST COAST TROUGH DOES DRIFT WEST NUDGING THE HIGH AGAINST THE
ROCKIES. A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BY THURSDAY DOES TEMPER MAX TEMPS A
BIT AS SOME LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE FILTERS INTO THE SOUTHERN MOIST
COUNTIES.
PRELIM NUMBERS...
AUS 72 105 73 97 75 100 012-0
SAT 74 106 75 96 76 100 00210
DRT 76 107 75 103 75 102 00--0
.EWX...NEAR RECORD HEAT TUESDAY
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BALCONES
ESCARPMENT, OAK WOODLANDS AND EASTERN HILL COUNTRY
06/02/JB
AFDELP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
150 PM MDT MON SEP 4 2000
SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE WARM AND DRY
WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD UPS AND A FEW BRIEF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMALS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. DURING THAT TIME DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY A FEW BRIEF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND BOOTHEEL AS RESULT OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. MODELS DO BRING WEAK IMPULSES
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THAT MAY PROVIDE ADDED LIFT AND INSTABILITY
BUT MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND LOW PW'S. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHORT
LIVED AND PROBABLY DRY WITH MINIMAL PRECIP.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE A
MOSTLY DRY AND WARM PATTERN WITH THE HIGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION
IN SOME FORM. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THE GREAT BASIN. WITH
AN ALTERED HIGH...A MOISTURE LEVELS MAY RISE SLIGHTLY TO GENERATE A
FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A FEW MORE CLOUDS OVER
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LITTLE PRECIP.
EL PASO UU 68/ 99/ 68/ 98/ 68 00000
LAS CRUCES UU 64/ 97/ 64/ 96/ 62 00000
ALAMOGORDO UU 64/ 97/ 64/ 96/ 63 00000
CLOUDCROFT BB 48/ 78/ 48/ 77/ 48 10000
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES UU 65/ 97/ 65/ 96/ 65 00000
SILVER CITY BB 57/ 93/ 57/ 93/ 57 11100
DEMING UU 65/ 98/ 65/ 97/ 65 00000
LORDSBURG UU 65/ 98/ 65/ 99/ 65 11100
SIERRA BLANCA UU 65/ 97/ 65/ 96/ 65 00000
.ELP...NONE
04
N
AFDFTW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 PM CDT MON SEP 4 2000
WELL...DFW HAS BEEN UP TO 111 DEGREES. IS THIS REALLY SEPTEMBER?
WITH BIG SURFACE HIGH MOVING INTO EASTERN U. S. OUT OF CANADA...
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NOT QUITE AS HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES STILL TOO LOW. LIKELY SCENARIO IS COOLER OVERNIGHT
LOWS BUT DRIER AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 100 WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
DFW 79/106/77/102 0000
ACT 75/107/74/103 0000
.FTW...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR ALL OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
59
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
238 PM CDT MON SEP 4 2000
RECORD HEAT TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AND LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK...COURTESY OF A LARGE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. AVN MODEL SHOWS LITTLE DEVIATION IN THE
POSITION OF THE RIDGE THROUGH 72 HOURS. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE
RUNNING 13 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FWC/FAN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
APPEAR TO BE OVERLY INFLUENCED BY CLIMATOLOGY AND ARE POORLY
HANDLING THE RECORD HEAT. MAV GUIDANCE TEMPS A LITTLE CLOSER TO
REALITY.
BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ETA-PROGGED 850 MB
TEMPS...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE. ETA DOES
INDICATE SOME 850 MB COOLING /2-3C/ OVER THE EASTERN ZONES BY
WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS APPEARS OVERDONE. AGREE WITH NCEP THAT THE
AVN/MRF IS PREMATURELY WEAKENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF. WILL NOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.
WITH NIGHTTIME MIN TEMPS IN THE 70S...HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL NOT
BE REACHED. WE WILL REISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THIS EVENING
HIGHLIGHTING HIGH AFTERNOON TEMPS AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR
TUESDAY.
RECORDS FOR KABI/KSJT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABI SJT
SEP 5 102 102
SEP 6 105 103
SEP 7 100 102
SEPTEMBER 106 107
ABI 077/104/076/103 0000
SJT 073/104/073/103 0000
JCT 071/103/070/102 0-0-
.SJT...NONE.
14
AFDLBB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
230 PM CDT MON SEP 4 2000
...HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONTINUES WITH RECORD HEAT TUE...
TUE LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER HOT ONE WITH VRY WK DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PERSISTING AND WARM H8 TEMPS FROM +28-30 DEG C. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A
COLD FRONT STRETCHING ERN NB-NE KS-N MO WITH ITS ASSOC H8 FRONT AT
12Z JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING
THE CORE OF THE UNUSUALLY STRONG POLAR ANTICYCLONE INTO THE NE CONUS
AND GIVING THE FA A QUICK GLANCING BLOW. EXPECT COLD FRONT TO WEAKEN
INTO A SFC TROUGH AS ITS ASSOC AIRMASS TO UNDERGOES SIG MODIFICATION
FROM THE EXTREMELY HOT SFC/H8 TEMPS ACROSS TX. BY WED HIGHS COULD
FINALLY COME DOWN FROM RECORD LVLS AS H8-H7 TEMPS DECR SLGTLY AND
BNDRY LYR FLOW TRAJ BECOMES UNFAVORABLE TO DOWNSLOPING. T-SECTS SHOW
A MINOR INCR IN MOISTURE LVLS COINCIDENT WITH BNDRY AND BELIEVE PC
CONDS MAY MATERIALIZE ESP E. POP CHANCES NIL DESPITE 7.5-8 C/KM
H8-H5 LAPSE RATES AS SFC CONVG APPEARS WK AND NVA/SUBSIDENT CONDS
WITH H5 RIDGE. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST. MODEL NUMBERS STILL TOO
COOL FOR WED AND BELIEVE THEY ARE DRASTICALLY UNDERPLAYING THE LACK
OF SOIL MOISTURE. WILL CONT TREND OF STAYING ABOVE GUIDANCE BUT
REMAIN BELOW KLBB RECORD OF 103 FOR WED.
FIRE WX...HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONTS. SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL
AFTNS RH VALUES <20% EXPECTED AFT 18Z. ALTHOUGH AFTN WINDS NOT FCST TO
BE AS GUSTY...HAINES INDEX REMAINS HIGH AND KEETCH-BYRAM VALUES CONT
BTWN 500 TO >700. BURNING BANS AND FIRE SAFETY ALERT AREAS REMAIN
UNCHANGED. WILL REISSUE FIRE DANGER/SPECIAL WX STMNT AND THE PNS
WITH FIRE SAFETY TIPS. THIS MAY BE THE LAST STMNT ISSUED.
EXTENDED FCST...MRF HAS BACKED OFF SIG ON PRECIP AND IS MORE
REASONABLE THAN THE RUN ON SUN. UKMET/MRF/ECMWF/NOGAPS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT COOLER WX IS POSS AS THICKNESS VALUES DROP IN
RESPONSE TO DECR H5 HEIGHTS. AS NOTED BY NCEP THIS MAY BE TOO
AGRESSIVE ESP WITH THE MRF SOLUTION. I STILL PREFER THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE NOGAPS. FMR/MEX LOOK TOO COOL ESP GIVEN THE DRY SOIL
CONDS BUT EXPECT TEMPS WILL ABV NORM. DRY PATTERN PERSISTS WITH
SUBSIDENT AIR ASSOC WITH H5 RIDGE. CURRENT FCST IN EXCELLENT AND DO
NOT EXPECT TO MAKE ANY SIG CHANGES ATTM.
KLBB RECORDS...
TUE 100/1995 WED 103/1948 THU 97/1917
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH FOR SEPT: 105/1930 ON THE 19TH
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH EVER RECORDED AT KLBB: 114/1994 ON JULY 27TH
PRELIM NUMBERS...SUBJECT TO CHANGE...
FRIONA 067/097/066/095 0000 BROWNFIELD 068/100/068/097 0000
TULIA 068/099/067/096 0000 LUBBOCK 069/100/069/098 0000
CHILDRESS 074/104/074/101 0000 ASPERMONT 073/103/072/100 0000
.LUB...NONE.
TAYLOR
AFDHOU
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
220 PM CDT MON SEP 4 2000
THERE'S NO BEATING...DEEP HEATING. MOSTLY SUNNY AND ALL TIME RECORD
BREAKING HEAT OVER SERN TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUES ARE SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVE AND TUE...COOLING
TREND WED/THU...THEN POPS FRI-MON.
IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE NORTH OF A LINE FROM
COLLEGE STATION TO HUNTSVILLE TO LIVINGSTON OVER THE NEXT TWO
HOURS...WITH STORMS PROPAGATING WSW. DAMAGING DRY MICROBURST WINDS
ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
IN THE SHORT TERM...THE NCEP MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
EXTENT OF COOLING AND POPS ON TUE. OVERALL PREFER THE ETA/MESOETA
FOR THE EXCELLENT HANDLING OF TEMPS FORECAST THE PAST FEW DAYS.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE ETA/MESO ETA INDICATE ANOTHER RECORD SHATTERING
DAY ON TUE AND NEAR OR JUST EXCEEDING RECORDS ON WED BEFORE RELIEF
COMES. WILL FOLLOW ETA/MESOETA TEMP GUIDANCE...ABOUT 5-8F WARMER
THAN FWC GUIDANCE. SEVERE MICROBURSTS ARE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY
AGAIN ON TUE AS A JET STREAK APPROACHES THE AREA IN ADDITION TO ALL
OF THE OTHER FACTORS THAT HAVE PRODUCED SEVERE CONVECTION THE PAST 4
DAYS. SERN TX APPEARS TO BE ON THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
STREAK...BUT THIS MAY OR MAY NOT VERIFY...AND THE MODELS HINT AT
FIRING THINGS IN NERN TX IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION...THEN
PROPAGATING AN MCS INTO SERN TX. THE BEST BET SEEMS TO GO WITH LOW
POPS AND CONTINUE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MICROBURST
POTENTIAL. WILL ALSO CONTINUE HEAT ADVISORY WORDING INTO WED AND RED
FLAG WARNING AGAIN FOR TUE.
THE MRF FINALLY STOPPED PLAYING UP THE TROPICAL WAVE EJECTING FROM
THE SERN U.S. ACROSS THE NRN GULF TO OUR AREA. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT
AVN/MRF SCENARIO OF INCREASING ERLY FETCH ON THU...THEN A RETURN OF
LOW POPS WITH A WEAK OPEN WAVE FRI-SUN IS PLAUSIBLE. HOWEVER...AGREE
WITH HPC PMDEPD DISCUSSION THAT COOL TEMPS ARE OVERDONE...SO WILL GO
3-5F ABOVE VALUES.
.KHGX...HEAT ADVISORY ALL ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RED FLAG WARNING ALL ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY.
31/47/48
PRELIMS...
CLL GG 076/108 072/104 070 222
IAH GG 074/106 072/100 069 222
GLS UU 080/097 079/093 076 212
RECORDS...
TUE 9/5 WED 9/6 SEPT ALL-TIME
CLL 102/1913 104/1913 111/2000* 111/2000* *JUST SET
IAH 98/1990 97/1999 108/2000* 108/2000* *JUST SET
GLS 94/1990 94/1912 101/2000* 101/1932/2000** *JUST SET **JUST TIED
AFDAMA
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
220 PM CDT MON SEP 4 2000
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK LEE
TROUGH IN PLACE. THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TO A MINIMUM TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH FAIRLY WARM MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES. A SHARP REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WILL MENTION NEAR
RECORD HIGHS IN THE AMARILLO ZONE AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD APPROACH THE
RECORD 103 DEGREE MARK. THE RIDGE AND WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
IN PLACE AND THIS MAY KEEP STORMS OUT OF THE PICTURE AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE UPPER-HIGH CONTINUES IN PLACE WITH
A LEE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH DOWN INTO
NEBRASKA THURSDAY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
HELP TO PUSH THE FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO MAY AFFECT
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF STORMS THERE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS STORMS REDEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN KANAS...PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES POSSIBLY SPREADING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE
NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COOL THINGS
DOWN SATURDAY.
PRELIM CCF..
AMA 68/100 68/99 67 -0-
DHT 63/98 62/97 61 -0-
.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
CB
AFDCRP
COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
225 PM CDT MON SEP 4 2000
DISCUSSION...UNPRECEDENTED HEAT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS
TIME..AND WITH A COUPLE HOURS UNTIL MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED..THE
HISTORIC PEN MAY NEED TO BE PULLED OUT OF THE DRAWER TO MAKE AN
ENTRY IN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL HISTORY BOOK..EITHER TO MAKE THE ENTRY
FOR THE ALREADY SHATTERED DAILY RECORD..AND/OR TO MAKE ANOTHER
CHANGE TO THE ALL-TIME RECORD.
STRONG MIXING OF VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR DOWNWARD TO THE
SURFACE..COUPLED WITH ADIABATIC/DOWNSLOPING WIND PREVAILS THIS
AFTERNOON TO GENERATE THE RECORD HEAT. A NORTHERLY COMPONENT IS
GENERALLY A SIGN OF COLD ADVECTION..HOWEVER GIVEN THE UPSTREAM
SIZZLING TEMPS..THE OPPOSITE EFFECT PROVES TO BE TRUE TODAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD BREAKING HEAT ON
TUESDAY..AS 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 24-26C RANGE.
HOWEVER..RELATIVE RELIEF IS IN SIGHT BEGINNING WED AS THESE VALUES
COOL INTO THE 17-21C RANGE FROM NE-SW ACROSS THE CWA WITHIN A WEAK
LOW-LEVEL TROF SLIPPING DOWN THE ERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE VERY LOW..THEREFORE PCPN IS OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FURTHER AS A SHORTWAVE
TROF..PRESENTLY SEEN ON VAPOR IMAGERY TRACKING SEWD OVER KY/TN..DIGS
INTO THE PERSISTENT TROF OVER THE NERN GULF AND SE U.S. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS PHASED WITH REALITY IN NOT DEVELOPING A TROPICAL SYSTEM
WITHIN THIS FEATURE..HOWEVER IT CONTINUES TO TRACK THE UPPER TROF TO
BATTLE AGAINST THE SERN SECTOR OF THE DOMINANT RIDGE.
REGARDLESS..TEMPS WILL COOL TOWARD NORMAL/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES AS THE MEAN FLOW BECOMES NE AND THE FETCH INCREASES..HOWEVER
VERY HOT AIR EXISTS UPSTREAM. PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW THROUGH
THE CYCLE.
MARINE...LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZES DUE TO LARGE LAND/SEA
THERMAL CONTRASTS AND NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THEMES THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
A NE/E WIND DEVELOPING. RESPECTABLE COOL THERMAL ADVECTION AND 20KTS
OF WIND IN A DEEP MIXED LAYER SUPPORTS SCEC CONDITIONS FOR THE
0-60NM WATERS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING PRIOR TO
SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE...SWATH OF HIGH PWATS/SFC THETAE
CONVERGENCE/SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE JET
DYNAMICS ARGUES ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA 06Z-18Z WEDNESDAY FOR THE 0-60NM.
WW3 INCREASES SEAS TO 4-6FT WEDNESDAY WITH NE/E WIND WHICH AGREES
WITH NOMOGRAMS BUT SEA CURRENTS FLOWING FROM SW TO NE WILL BE
OPPOSING THIS WIND.
THE FORECAST NUMBERS ARE NEXT...
TUE RECORDS.. CRP..103 / VCT..103 / LRD..107
CRP GB 076/104 075/100 074 000
VCT GB 075/105 074/100 074 000
LRD GB 077/105 077/103 077 000
BML.76 / BB.85
.CRP...NONE.
AFDBRO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
215 PM CDT MON SEP 4 2000
ALL MODELS TEND TO KEEP A 500 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS CAUSING A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS. A SOUTH
WIND WILL PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CAUSING MUCH DRIER AND WARMER
AIR OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU ONCE AGAIN CAUSING NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE VALLEY CAUSING THE WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOONS. THE BRO SOUNDING THIS MORNING CONTS TO BE FAIRLY DRY
AND STABLE WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
THE SOUNDING HAD A PWAT OF 1.22 AND A K INDEX OF A PLUS 25. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NEXT FEW
DAYS. SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE NEAR TX COAST MAINTAINING A WEAK FLOW
AND LOW SEAS. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVER THE
REGION...MAKING PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR ZERO.
EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK CAUSING A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK CAUSING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT
THAT TIME.
55
.WFO BRO INTERNET ADDRESS...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO
.BRO...NONE.
.BRO 076/100/076/097/076 00/00/00/00
.MFE 076/103/076/102/076 00/00/00/00
.RGD 075/106/075/105/075 00/00/00/00
.SPI 078/092/078/092/075 00/00/00/00