Surface high temperature forecast from 850mb chart

[Carl Sidor]

Can anyone help me understand how a surface high temperature prediction is made from the 850mb chart temperatures? I have consulted several texts on the subject, but either they are unclear, or I am unable to grasp their explanations. Thanks.

[Mike Deason]

Well, the general method we used "back in the day" was:

1) Use the 12Z sounding.

2) Determine if there was going to be a frontal passage and/or air mass change.

3) Determine whether it was going to be clear or partly cloudy to overcast.

4) If clear was your forecast, take the 850 temp dry adiabatically to the surface and use that as your forecast temp.

5) If partly to mostly cloudy was forecast, take the 850 temp down moist adiabatically to the surface.

Personally, I only use this as a ball park figure and as a sort of "devil's advocate" to see how believeable the MOS maxs are.

Regards,

Mike

[Carl Sidor]

Dear Mike:

Thank you very much. That explanation I could understand easily! Why can't textbook editors be as clear and to the point?

[Hossain7422]

Dear Mike it appears that your method is reasonably ok and it is working even in Asian tropical regions. But I need to test this concept in the coming transition period of our region at Mar to May severe Thunderstorm season.

Thank you for help.

Hossain